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Notes on-Systems Approaches to Managing Change:
Parts 1&2Overview of systems thinking & Systems
DynamicsA Practical Guide
Eds. – Martin Reynolds & Sue Holwell
Part 1&2 – Read as part of TU811 OU Course: Systems Tools for managing Change
Notes: James Cracknell BA (Hons.)
Chapter 1Introducing Systems
ApproachesIntroduction 1.1
Five approaches
1. System Dynamics (SD) –1950’s Jay Forrester
2. Viable Systems Model (VSM) – 1960’s Stafford Beer
3. Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) – 1970’s Colin Eden
4. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) – 1970’s Peter Checkland
5. Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) – 1070’s Werner Ulrich
Nature of Complex Systems
Three situations reported in 2009 during Easter week.
a) Hillsborough Football disaster 20 years on
b) Somalia – the impact of pirating
c) Orangutans – a new population for an endangered species
Key points from each story
Hillsborough
The tragedy continues to permeate the psyche of English football 20 years further on. Despite improvements in safety in grounds there is a continued sense that justice was far from being delivered. Cover ups at every level as well as poor leadership, dire communication and abject confusion persists to the day.
Somalian Pirates
Headlines surrounded the death and rescue of European and US citizens in yet another hostage situation. It was though, the wider repercussion that were occupying the copy with analysis on what it means for fishing industries of the Seychelles and tourism along the Kenyan coast. The costs were being counted in terms of jobs and extended hardship. Cruise ships were no longer stopping meaning a loss of trade, in fact they were avoiding the region all together.
OrangutansDespite the discovery of a new population the species remains on the endangered list. The rainforests of Indonesia, the natural habitat, are being decimated as Palm oil is classed as a ‘clean burning fuel’. The eco fuel was now being harvested with devastating consequences for the species. The light was also shone on widespread exploitation of workers and the politics of energy production
Big, Big Issues- 1.2.1
Three contrasting stories – a few common threads
• Local issues have causes and consequences which extend the impact
• That the problems were unbounded and paid no respect to national borders
• All stories came with multiple perspectives often conflicting
• That the backdrop cannot be ignored –2009 and the Global economy was reeling from Global Banking Crisis –poverty, global warming, and ice melting
Human life gets in the way
No obvious answers to any of these stories, different people will take opposing perspectives, different priorities and change, intentional or otherwise has consequences that ripple.
Messes and Difficulties – 1.2.2
Issues of concern
• Complex to straightforward
• Minor hiccup to catastrophic
Continuum between concept of:
Difficult or a Mess
Difficult Mess
One dimensional continuum
Mess - Characteristics
• Many interlocking aspects
• Involves more people
• Greater implications related to outcomes
• Different guises
• Longer time scale
• Greater uncertainty
• Hard to articulate
• Multiple trajectories
• Question, assumptions, and weightings
• Many perspectives all dynamic
Difficult
• The answer is known but not discovered
• Can be conceptualized
• Take for granted context
• Articulate the solution
Two dimensional Mess
DifficultMess
Certain
Un
cert
ain • Indicates overall Scale
• Uncertain – means multiple perspectives
• Difficulties can be conceptualised
Why think in systems?Simplifies the thinking around complex realities. The means to handle the detail, bring it to the foreground, identify different behaviours from multiple perspectives.
Terms to describe ‘Messes’
• Swamp – Donald Schon
• Wicked problems – Horst Rittel
• Resource Dilemmas – Neils Roling..
..
No one way of thinking about systems
• Different typologies of approach to analysis
• Emphasis in thinking between man and nature
• Complexity in its very nature• Choices of approaches
dependent upon perspective of user, nature of event
Four perspectives under consideration
Perspective 1: Three Traditions of System
Thinking(West Churchman, Peter Checkland,
Werner Ulrich, Mike Jackson & others)
Three sets:Hard, Soft & Critical
Hard
Soft
Critical
Hard systems
The presumption that systems ‘actually exist’ .
Losing this assumption facilitated new more abstract constructs
Soft Systems
Moving away from the concept of ‘hard systems’ –
to ‘soft systems’ as the means to transfer and
impart knowledge. “Epistemological Constructs rather than real World entities” (p10)
Definition of epistemological – scientific study of knowledge, its acquisition and communication’
Critical systems
To address some of the inadequate aspects of Hard and Soft by considering the ‘power relations’ – wider enforced changes on society
Gerald Midgley – The evolution of systems thinking & practice –
Three ‘Waves’ or phases of inquiry
Wave Description
Wave one A focus on ‘concrete’ issues with common purpose
Wave two Soft focus – people, their perspectives, wants an needs
Wave three Emphasis on ‘power relations’ the reengineering of social morals, actions and attitudes that shape the context
As a systems thinking practioner what value would I gain from thinking of systems like this? The focus of the three-part model is about the situation, its relevance to this analysis.
Hard & soft carry with it gender specific overtones. Overcome by a change in terminology to ‘Functionalist, Interpretivist, Emancipatory’.Thinking in silos makes it harder to identify any synergies or cross over between the three models
Issues related to the three-part model
Perspective 2: Systems Thinking for Situations – 1.2.6.2Systems of system methodologies (SOSM)
To classify system approaches aligned to a specific problem situation (Jackson, 1990)
Dimensions of matrix
Complexity - of the situation, its interrelatedness and interdependencies.
Participants – Perspectives
Unitary – Hard – Machine
Pluralist – Soft – Organism
Coercive – Critical - Prison
Matrix
Participants
‘Systems’ i.e. problem situation
Unitary ‘ hard’ systems – machine metaphor
Pluralist ‘Soft’ systems –organismic metaphor
Coercive ‘critical’ systems – prison metaphor
Simple Simple unitary: e.g. systems engineering
Simple pluralist: e.g. Strategic assumption surfacing and testing
Simple coercive: e.g. critical systems heuristics
Complex Complex unitary: e.g. systems dynamics, viable systems model
Complex pluralist:e.g. soft systems methodology
Complex coercive: (non available)
Adapted from Jackson 2000, p.359 –Taken from Reynolds & Howe p.11
Total Systems Intervention (TSI)Flood and Jackson (1991)
Drawing different methods together in a three-fold process
1. Creative analysis of the situation
2. Choice of a suitable systems approach
3. Implementation of that approach
Two significant difficulties
1. Assumption that ‘all’ situations fall neatly into one of the six available boxes
2. Assumption that a particular approach is only suitable for a specific problem
Nothing is ever this neat and thinking like this can detract from exploration of the alternatives.
Perspective 3: Influences Around Systems Approaches (Ison & Maiteny) –1.2.6.3
• Synergistic thinking
• Cross fertilisation
• Innovation
• Moving away from the rigidity of the matrix classification
• Broaden out the way systems thinking fits into other domains
• Role of individual users
Difficulties arising
• One-way influences – that is this perspective is reaching out whilst others are not necessarily reaching in
• Casting a wider net can mean important practitioners are missed off
Perspective 4: Grouping of System Thinkers (Ramage & Shipp) – 1.2.6.4
• Matching individual system thinkers to their discipline
• Purpose of typology – to “provide a foothold for the readers’ engagement with the 30 systems thinkers covered” (Ed. Reynolds, Howe, 2010, p14)
• Authors personal mapping
Seven Groupings – 30 ThinkersGroupings Thinkers / Practioner
Early cybernetics Gregory Bateson (1904 – 1980), Norbert Wiener (1894 – 1964), Warren McCulloch (1898 – 1969)
Soft & Critical systems C. West Churchman (1913 – 2004), Russell Ackoff (1919- ). Peter Checkland (1930 -), Werner Ulrich
(1948-), Michael C. Jackson (1951-)
Complex Theory Ilya Prigogine (1917 – 2003), Stuart Kauffman (1939 -), James lovelock (1919 -)
General systems theory Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901 – 72), Kenneth Boulding (1910 – 1993), Geoffrey Vickers (1894 – 1983)
Later cybernetics Heinz von Foerster (1911 – 2002), Stafford Beer (1926 –2002), Humberto Maturana (1928 -), Niklas Luhmann
(1927 – 1998), Paul Watziawick (1921 – 2007)
Learning systems Kurt Lewin (1890 – 1947), Eric Trist (1911 – 1993), Chris Argyris (1923 -), Donald Schon (1930 – 1997), Mary
Catherine Bateson (1939 -)
System dynamics Jay Forrester (1918 -), Donella Meadows (1941 – 2001), Peter Senge (1947 -)
Controversy and Paradox
• It is not representative of a comprehensive collection of groupings and thinkers
• It is a starting point for first arrivals
• Groupings are contentious within the field
• Paradox – by creating this type of typography –interdisciplinary links are broken thereby stepping outside the systems thinking mindset
Our Own Perspective 1.2.7
Attained goal – to understand how:
• Different system approaches relate to each other
• The various schools of thought
• They can be used in practice by relating to specific situations
The Five Systems – (slide 2) have been chosen because of they address:
• Rich interplay between ‘situation’, ‘practioner community’ and ‘methodology’
• Connection to the three motivations for using a systems approach, namely –‘interrelationships, different perspectives and power relations
Five approaches to strategy making – 1.2.9
Strategic options Development and Analysis (SODA, with Cognitive Mapping) 1.2.9.3
Chapter 2 – Systems Dynamics
To create a representation of a real world situation often complex in nature.
A systems approach to the management of change.
Uses diagrams as the means of communicating the present situation, the interconnections, causes and outcomes as well as unplanned for secondary effects. Business thinking meets social thinking
Feedback leads to dynamic behaviours
Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and SocietyChanging Perspectives – 2.1.1
From above we see the whole picture and gain on perspective.
At street or road level we get another. Both are as valid, both provide information and both offer contrasting perspectives.
“What appears to be chance, may, from a different perspective, have a systemic cause” p26
Event Orientated Thinking
Events create problems
Solutions fix problems
Congestion leads to the building of more roads
Unruly binge drinking leads to a need for more police
Drug crime leads to more police taking drugs off the street
“The problem presents itself as a discrepancy between an important shared goal and a capricious current situation” P26
Feedback Systems Thinking 2.1.3
Solutions are not isolated from their environment or context – the are ‘sympathetic’
Problems and solution coexist and are interdependent
5th Discipline – Peter Senge –5 disciplines for effective organisational change
Illustration of Feedback Systems Thinking 2.1.4• Fig 2.3A representation of the complexity of traffic congestion and the unintended consequences of certain actions. The position of boundaries is very dependent upon the perspective and a matter of judgement
A Shift of Mind –2.1.5Fig 2.4 Feedback perspective
• People involved in strategy development will hold counter views which will lead to conflicting and partial perspectives.• Advantages of thinking in feedback loops is an appreciation of where the goal or desired future state, and existing state create the discrepancy• Nothing is considered as a one-size fits all solution and actions will create extended situations• “The performance of the enterprise as a whole arises from the interplay of these interlocking feedback processes,”
Discussion and
Thoughts
Linear thinking is often seen in business and government, in decision that are made and not looking at the extended ramifications of those decisions. This leads to the conclusion that many of the problems that we have now are a consequence of linear thinking.
The introduction of the feedback loops emphasises the complexity and ripple effects that decisions, that are made in good faith and for the right reasons, may become the problems of the future.
Rules and approaches
• Cause and effects alongside the
means for feedback. The diagram is a
tool to visualise these relationships
• Constructed using a mix of words,
phrases, links and loops.
• Conventions to be noted – the ‘+’
means - If the cause increases then the
effect increases too relative to what it
would otherwise have been
- The ‘-’ means that if the cause
increases then the effect decreases
relative to what it would otherwise
have been
The central element
R Reinforcing loop – amplifies and reinforces change
B Balancing loop – a change in a variable leads to a counteracting
change
Naming conventions – identify each loop as a way of creating
a narrative
DELAYDelays – the identification of a time lag between a cause and
effect (the variables)
Process in a Shower ‘System’ –2.2.1.1 • The causal feedback loop provides a lot of qualified information in a combined space.• The detail useful in construction of ‘algebraic simulation’ : (goal – actual)• Be aware of what links actually mean in real world; behavioural responses in respect of economic, social and physical laws• Quantitative aspects – how much does temperature rise for a given increase in water flow?• Temperature gap to ‘flow of hot water’ the most important link as embodies decision making process• What is the corrective action required? –Overreaction and iteration leads to flux• People have the control – how they choose to adjust the tap setting • Our own decision making processes
Sensing the gap – stand under a shower in scuba gear and you have no sense of the gap – feedback loop collapses
Dynamics of balancing loop• Balancing loops crop up
everywhere• Goals set by human,
social and biological needs
• Business sets sales goals, quality standards etc.
• Government’s – inflation, money supply, Growth and health
• Humans – temperature, blood flow, digestive goals
• Balancing processes far from perfect so corrective action can lead to over and undershooting
Puzzling Dynamics
Key points of problem
• Community witnessing
‘apparent’ rise in drug fueled
crime
• Anecdotal evidence suggests
police action getting results
• Goal of system is tolerable
situation – reported growth
based off estimated information
• We know there is reinforcing
feedback at work because we
see ‘growth’
• Malignant feedback entwinned
with police, communities and
drug users that crosses
boundaries
Feedback Loops in drug related crime
2.2.2.1
• Consider the basic vocabulary – hypothesised reasons for crime to rise.
• Indicate the boundary of the problem
• All factors lead to a closed loop of cause and effect –a crime spiral
• Two negative links – so loop is reinforcing
Central variable in question & starting place for story
Community responsePolice action –
inside the force
The world of the drug user – addicts not driven by price. Increase in price adds to crime
Scope and Boundary of Factors in drug Related Crime2.2.2.2
• Loop is not the only one
• Try knew loops• Challenge
conventional thinking• Keep loops simple• Focus on observable
problems• Qualitative feedback• Always ask what else
An Aside: More Practice
with link Polarity and Loop types
2.2.2.3
• Any individual link connects two concepts (A&B) – ‘A’ is the cause and ‘B’ the effect
• For each link we imagine ‘all other influences are held constant’ (ceteris paribus)
Purpose and Use of Causal Loop Diagrams: A Summary
2.2.2.4
Creates overviewDiscloses
interconnectionsVisual summation
Uncovers Mental Models
Displays dynamic behaviours
Expands thinking
Extrapolation of the future based on existing
or new behaviours
Feedback on ‘observed performance’ recorded
and highlighted
Basic Tips: Picking and Naming Variables 2.2.2.5
Words are vital
• Variables must be ‘Nouns’• Augment nouns to target or
clarify variable• Think in terms of being able to
measure• Ground words in facts• Concepts can be ‘hard’ – easily
measurable – ‘new products’ ‘new hires’
• Concepts can be ‘soft’ –intangible such as moral, isolation, perceptions
• Always have in mind a means to measure or quantify (score) even intangible
• Pick phrases “delivery lead time” rather than the less clear ‘delivery performance’
Basic Tips: Meaning of Arrows and Link Polarity2.2.2.6
Arrows are visual drivers• Change in cause leads
to change in effect• Polarity works for
both tangible as well as intangible
• The effect on the variable is to change it ‘more than it would otherwise have been’
Marketing budget
Impact on sales +
Industry reputation
Customer’s interested +
Not as clear as a ‘Causal Loop’
Basic Tips: Drawing, Identifying and
Naming Feedback Loops2.2.2.7
• Feedback loops for the system thinker are the equivalent of a political cartoon for the cartoonist. • A series of feedback loops on a whiteboard can identify the primary characteristic of an organization• The message is given added weight because it focuses on the dominant features
Basic Tips: Drawing, Identifying and
Naming Feedback Loops2.2.2.7
5 Tips for visual layout
• Use curved lines• Important loops are
circular• Organise diagram to
minimise cross-over of lines
• Avoid ‘Chart Junk’ – any added to aspect that only serves to clutter and distract
• Iterate – get ready to start and refine
• Label clearly following conventions of polarity
Excerpts from ‘Orchestra in a Complex World’ (Bernhard Kerres) 2.2.6
A 3 year study and consultation to develop a
strategic agenda for growth
• Five major indicators of success
1. Delivery of high-quality
performances to attract, retain
top musicians and conductors
2. Create challenging and
interesting programs appealing
to audiences old and new
3. Attract top managers and staff,
engage and motivate volunteers
4. Raise and sustain visibility
through media. Produce
recordings, get broadcast and
extract favourable reviews
5. Continue to develop a successful
school’s outreach programme,
engage with local communities
so as to raise appreciation for
music
A qualitative approach to understanding success from a multi-dimensional perspective
Questions to consider about Fig 2.32What are our measures of success?
• Artistic success• Financial success
Quantifiable means of gauging artistic:• Quality of performance
(reviews)• Challenges of programme
(musicians & audience)Quantifiable means of gauging financial:• Sell tickets• Attract sponsorship
Combined long term measures• Season ticket uptake and
general growth in audience base
What is missing and what is needed from Fig 2.32?• Adequate explanation of the role ‘Media’ plays in success
Represented by the ‘dotted line and ?’
• No reinforcing loops to success – once these have been identified the engines of growth can be articulated
The Importance
of Brand 2.2.6.2
Brand – the image it generates in people’s minds linking the values with the qualities of the organisation to its audience.
First feedback loop (R1) – Brand Growth Engine• The existence of the loop does not
mean that it is always a virtuous circle can be ‘vicious’ under adverse circumstances
• Media now has a more clear role in success
Attracting Musicians
2.2.6.3
An orchestra needs musicians R2 Best Musicians Musicians consider• Brand• Soloists• Conductors
Success with Fundraising2.2.6.4An orchestra needs access to state funding. To achieve this it needs:• A strong brand• To attract right supporters• To engage and motivate
volunteers• Fundraising acumen – often
teams of experienced people
• Corporate involvement
It is a defined pot that all arts are targeting.
• Private donors• Allegiances and loyalties• Geographic know-how very
different
Conclusion from Orchestra Study2.2.6.5A diagram like this is a ‘map’ from which the main features and their potential interconnectedness can be determined. It takes ‘iteration’ and often done in a social learning environment. The whole team therefore needs to recognise and agree with the ‘descriptive overview’ of the current situation. Stakeholder’s perceptions are therefore vital to gain a fuller picture. Use of a trained facilitator is therefore vital to the chances of success
End of Part 1 and Part 2
Notes by James Cracknell BA (Hons.)
As part of TU811 OU Course Systems
Tools for Managing Change
Reynolds, M. and Holwell, S. (2010) Introducing Systems Approaches, in Martin Reynolds, Sue Holwell (Eds.) Approaches to managing Change: A Practical Guide. London: Springer in association with The Open University