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Copyright 2014. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary
and Confidential and may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third
party without the express written consent of NPD.
NPD CREST State of the Nation 2015
Evolving consumer trends in the foodservice market
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CREST®
The Currency for Food Service Industry
Decisions in Europe and Across the World
Consumer Reports on Eating Share Trends
USA Canada Great Britain Germany France
Japan China Australia
Spain
Italy Russia Mexico
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Database designed to measure consumer restaurant behaviour...
captured through surveys sent to a maintained, representative panel.
Basics about CREST
CREST = Consumer Reports on Eating Share
Trends
Source for data are consumers, not restaurant
chains
A syndicated study of ready prepared
meals/snacks for immediate consumption
Covering every day, 365 days per year
Includes prepared meals and snacks from
restaurants/deliveries as well as retail outlets
(Grocery/Deli/C Stores)
Captures restaurant meals and snacks
consumed both on and off-premises
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Executive summary
Food Service
+0.9% in visits
&
Treat themselves
and their family
Choice and newness in
particular in London
Technology, Buzz
and loyalty
Full experience
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The image should fill up the entire space of the gray box, no gray should be seen
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FOOD SERVICE
PERFORMANCE
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Healthy growth for total out of home.
£50.8b Total Spend
£4.60 Average Eater Check
£1.94 Av price per unit
2.4 Item per eater
11.1b Visits
+2.0%
+1.0% +0.9%
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14
+2.6% -1.1%
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Independents are struggling to compete against chains
to answer changing consumer needs.
Small Chains +12.7%
Major Brands +2.3%
Independents
-3.7%
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14 vs YE Dec’13
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Full service failed to meet new consumers’ needs.
Casual dining +6.8%
Travel & Leisure +1.6%
Quick service restaurants +1.4%
Pubs +0.7%
Full Service exc. Casual Dining -3.1%
Canteen -1.0%
UP
D
OW
N
Visits year on year % change
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14 vs YE Dec’13
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All day-parts are back to growth, apart from snacking.
Snacking -3.7% Dinner +3.5%
Breakfast +4.6% Lunch +1.9%
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14 vs YE Dec’13
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Growth entirely comes from Deals - in particular, Meal
Deals.
On Deal 27% of visits
+ 5.3% year on year
Meal Deal 15% of visits
+ 7.7% year on year
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14 vs YE Dec’13
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Total Out of Home (OOH)
Incidence and Servings Trend
Incidence (% of orders that include the item) Category
Alcoholic Beverages
Cold Beverages
Hot Beverages
Total Breakfast
Total Bakery
Total Snacks
Total Desserts
Total Meat Main Dish
Fin Fish Total
Shellfish Total
Total Burger
Total Sand/Wraps
Total Ethnic
Total English
Total Side Dish
Total Starters
-0.2 -2.0
0.7 2.5
-1.3 -4.3
-0.3 -2.2
0.1 0.1
0.0 -0.2
0.0 1.1
-0.1 0.2
0.0 0.3
-0.1 -0.9
0.9 9.6
0.5 2.1
0.1 -0.8
0.0 n/a
0.0 -2.4
0.0 -1.1
8.9
44.4
26.5
7.5
11.2
6.2
11.1
14.2
3.9
1.2
11.3
19.6
14.3
0.3
1.2
1.0
] 13 [
Burgers, sandwiches & cold beverages are the only growing
categories. Strong decline for hot beverages (warm year)
Incidence
PPT
Change
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec ‘14
Serving
%
PCYA
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Total Out of Home (OOH)
Incidence and Servings Trend
Incidence (% of orders that include the item) Category
42.8
13.8
11.4
0.8
12.2
3.9
1.3
44.6
14.5
11.9
0.8
12.6
3.9
1.2
Total Protein
Poultry
Beef and Veal
Lamb
Pork
Fish
Shellfish
YE Dec 14
YE Dec 13
] 14 [
Proteins grow in importance overall – driven by Chicken,
Beef and Pork.
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec ‘14
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The changing British
landscape has changed
consumers’ behaviours
across different
industries…
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TECHNOLOGY EXPERIENCE
NEWNESS TREAT
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Consumers treat their kids and themselves
17
Sources: NPD UK Toys , Sports and CREST Consumer Panel / NPD UK Prestige Beauty / All data 2014 vs 2013, except* vs 2009
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, Reason choice of an outlet % of visits YE Dec
'14
Outlets need to please both Parents and Kids
Kids like it there 24% of visits
Quality of Food 18% more important than for adult only parties
Variety of Food 22% more important than for adult only parties
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TECHNOLOGY EXPERIENCE
NEWNESS TREAT
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Consumers love newness and diversity
20
Sources: NPD UK Toys and CREST Consumer Panel / NPD UK Prestige Beauty / All data 2014 vs 2013
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London is a great example of this trend
X2
in 5 years
+58% year on year
London gives birth to lots of new restaurant chains inspired by
American trends, international cuisine and street food
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, visits YE Dec '14 vs YE Dec’09 and YE Dec’13
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More choice means that the consumer has become
more promiscuous
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As a result, convenience is less and less important
when choosing a restaurant
Convenience/Habit 1
Quality/Choice/Craving 2
Price/Voucher 3
New/Recommended 4
Kids like it there 5
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, visits YE Dec '14
Total out of home – Reason for choice of an outlet
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EXPERIENCE TECHNOLOGY
NEWNESS TREAT
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With more and more choice, the outlet must give a better
experience
25
John Lewis has created the “town hall” concept
space that makes beauty product browsing a
“voyage of discovery”
The retailer size has converted the 1st floor
of their store into a Nike Skateboard area
Lego in store corners In Foodservice, social moments have grown
by +16% vs 2009
Sources: NPD UK CREST All data 2014 vs 2013
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To enjoy the experience, consumers eat more on
premise
On premise +3.4%
Off premise
-0.5%
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, total out f home visits YE Dec '14 vs YE Dec’13
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Casual dining leaves customers satisfied
about all aspects of their experiences
Overall Satisfaction
78% Excellent or very good
Quality of Service
Value For Money
Atmosphere/Ambian
ce
Friendly environm
ent for kids
Taste of Food
Valued Customer
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, Casual Dining Customer satisfaction % of visits YE Dec '14
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What About Lunch on the Go in London vs.
the Rest of Great Britain?
28
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Regional Share of traffic – Off-Premise occasions in QSR
London Overtrades at Breakfast and for Snacking
Occasions and outgrows the rest of GB
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14
16.9
22.8
17.2
13.4
18.7
83.1
77.2
82.8
86.6
81.3
Total Daypart
Breakfast
Lunch
Dinner
Total Snack
Rest of GB London
29
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Same number of items but a 22% higher average ticket
in London
London QSR Lunch on the go Rest of GB
4.1 Million Visits per Week 19.7
2.0 Number of Items 1.99
3.49 Average Ticket £ 2.87
28.3% % visits on deal/promo 27.6%
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14
30
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Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14
Portability Needs are Different in London and in the
Rest of GB
Rest of GB London
% of Lunch Visits within QSR made off premise
31
50%
At Work
40%
Outside/in
a car
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80
20
73
27
Lunch on the Go in QSR – Brands & Independents Traffic Share
London Rest of GB
+4%
London Remains a Booming Place for Independent
Street Food Outlets
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14
Brands
Independents
32
+1%
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Nationally, Convenience and Quality of food are the most important
reasons for choice; Quality holds a higher percentage in London while
Convenience is higher outside of London
Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Dec '14
62%
LONDON REST OF GB
Convenience
Food related
Reason to choose a specific outlet to eat/drink out for lunch
off premise, in QSR (% of visits)
Quality of Food
Variety of Food
Specific taste
Light/Healthy
Location
Drive Thru,
Delivery
No time to cook
46%
67%
40%
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Top items demand Lunch on the GO in QSR
34
What about salads? Pasta? Veal? Lamb? Duck?
What about sweet foods?
Food Beverages
Savory 91% Total Beverages 61%
Cold 56% Cola 20%
Hot 49% Hot Beverage 11%
Sandwiches 49% Bottled Water 10%
Burger 12% Juice 8%
Chips/French
Fries
9%
Ethnic 7%
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TRENDS FOR 2015
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TOP 5 TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2015
GOOD BYE BLIND LOYALTY
SQUEEZED MIDDLE
AUTHENTICITY, FRESHNESS AND TRANSPARENCY
HEALTHY INDULGENCE
NICHE CUISINE GOES MAINSTREAM
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-3.0% -2.4%
-0.8%
0.1% -0.5%
0.9% 1.1% 1.5%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total OOH – KPIs YOY % Growth
Forecasts show visit growth continuing, and actually out-pacing average
spend growth in 2015 and 2016.
Forecast
Visits (000s)
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Industries
Automotive
Beauty
Consumer Electronics
Entertainment
Fashion
Food / Foodservice
Home
Luxury
Mobile
Office Supplies
Sports
Technology
Toys
Video Games
Countries
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Poland
Portugal
Russia
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Taiwan
United Kingdom
United States
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