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OCP BusinessReport

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Business Analysis about OCP and Phosphate Market
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BUSINESS REPORT by Hicham Haddouti
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Page 1: OCP BusinessReport

BUSINESS  REPORT  by  

Hicham  Haddouti  

Page 2: OCP BusinessReport

Index  

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 3: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 4: OCP BusinessReport

Terms  of  Reference  

•  The  report  was  prepared  for  general  circula4on  and  does  not  provide  investment  recommenda4ons  to  OCP  Consul4ng.  

•  Any  opinion  expressed  in  this  report  is  a  statement  of  my  judgment  to  this  date  

•  This  report  is  published  solely  for  marke4ng  purposes    

•  The  informa4on  herein  is  based  on  the  OCP’s  Annual  Reports  of  2011  and  sources  that  I  believe  are  reliable  but  are  not  guaranteed  by  me  

Page 5: OCP BusinessReport

Procedure    

•  Exact  steps  and  methods  used    

–  Performance  a  benchmarking  analysis  of  the  financial  performance  of  OCP  versus  its  peers  

–  Evalua4on  of  the  economic  value  by  using  comparables  –  Analysis  of  the  business  and  financial  situa4on  –  Performance  a  DCF  Valua4on    Comparision  of  the  company’s  results  over  4me  and  what  this  means  for  the  company’s  future  and  would  include  an  analysis  of  the  income  statement,  balance  sheet  and  financial  ra4os  

Page 6: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 7: OCP BusinessReport

Overview  of  OFFICE  CHERIFIEN  DE  PHOSPHATE  

Key  Highlights  

Management  Team  

OCP  Group,  comprised  of  OCP  S.A.,  its  subsidiaries  and  its  equity  investments,  is  the  world’s  leading  expoerter  of  phosphate  rock  and  deriva4ve  products  

The  company’s  ac4vi4es  span  the  en4re  phosphate  value  chain,  from  phosphate  rock  mining  to  chemical  processing  of  phosphoric  acid  and  the  produc4on  of  phosphate-­‐based  fer4lizers  

The  group  is  a  major  factor  in  the  Moroccan  economy,  represen4ng  24%  of  the  na4on’s  exports  in  2010  

OCP  S.A.  was  founded  in  1920  and  is  headquartered  in  Casablanca,  Morocco  

•  Mostafa  Terrab,  CEO  and  Chairman    •  Mohamed  El  Kadiri,  General  Secretary  •  Marouane  Ameziane,  Head  of  CEO’s  Office  •  Rachid  Mouline,  Director  of  Business  

Steering  •  Ali  Ben  Abdeslam,  General  Counsel  •  Meryem  Chami,  Head  of  Human  Resources  •  Amar  Drissi,  Execu4ve  VP  Opera4ons  

•  Mohamed  Ibnaddeljalil,  Execu4ve  VP  Sale,  Marke4ng  and  Raw  Material  Procuremen  

•  M’barek  Karoua,  Execu4ve  VP  Audit  and  Control  

•  Mohamed  El  Hajjouji,  Execu4ve  VP  Finance  and  Management  Support  

 

Combina4on  of  an  experienced  team    

Page 8: OCP BusinessReport

Overview  of  OFFICE  CHERIFIEN  DE  PHOSPHATE  

Key  Financials  

Turnover  

Net  Profit  

Net  Debt  

Total  Balance  Sheet  

Page 9: OCP BusinessReport

Overview  of  OFFICE  CHERIFIEN  DE  PHOSPHATE  

Strengths  

•  Important  reserves  of  the  world’s  largest  phosphate  resources  

•  Leading  world  wide  exporter  of  phosphate  rock  and  phosphoric  acid  

•  Ambi4ous  Investment  Program:  The  group  is  moving  forward  with  a  program  designed  to  significantly  increase  the  produc4on  capacity  across  the  en4re  value  chain.  The  cost  valued  at  130  billion  MAD  

Strategies  

   •  Comfort  its  presence  over  the  en4re  phosphate  

value  chain  

•  Improve  its  financial  profitability  

•  Enhance  Marke4ng  Flexibility  

•  A]empt  to  marry  social  and  economic  progress  

Strategy  with  four  components      

Page 10: OCP BusinessReport

36.9  Million  Tonnes  In  2011    

Overview  of  OFFICE  CHERIFIEN  DE  PHOSPHATE  Products:  Revenue  Model  

Phosphate    Rock  

Phosphoric  Acid  

Fer4lizers  

Break  Down    ProducIon  

12%  

12%  

76%  

1stExporter  of  phosphate  

rock  

1stExporter  of  phosphoric  

Acid  

4thExporter  of  phosphoric  ferIlizers  

Page 11: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 12: OCP BusinessReport

Industry  Analysis:  Phosphate  and  Agriculture  

•  Phosphate  is  one  of  the  three  key  nutrients  that  are  used  in  fer4lizers.  The  other  two  nutrients  are  nitrogen  and  potash.  

   •  Phosphate  contains  phosphorous,  an  important  element  for  the  human  body  to  build  and  repair  cell  walls.  It  is  found  in  the  form  of  phosphate  rock,  which  is  processed  into  diammonium  phosphate  and  other  fer4liser  deriva4ves.  

 

 •  While  arable  land  is  

expected  to  rising,  albeit  slowly,  arable  land  per  person  will  con4nue  to  fall  

 •  This  will  necessitate  

increased  produc4vity  per  unit  of  land.  More  usage  of  phosphate  fer4lizers  which  depends  on  the  price  

Page 13: OCP BusinessReport

Phosphate  Market:  Overview  

 While  nearly  30  countries  produce  phosphate  rock,  China,  the  United  States  and  Morocco  are  the  largest  producers  

Source:  U.S.  Geological  Survey  Mineral  Commodity  Summaries  

Country       ProducIon   Reserves  (2008)  (in  million  of  tonnes)  

China       50       4100  USA       30.9       1200  Morocco       28       5700  Russia       11       200  Tunisia       7.8       100  

Page 14: OCP BusinessReport

Phosphate  Market:  Trends  and  OpportuniGes  

Reserves  that  can  be  developed  using  current  technology  

can  be  depleted  in  90  

years  

Annual  global  produc4on  is  around  170  

million  tonnes  

Es4mated  reserves  stand  at  15  billion  tonnes  

Morocco  should  be  posiIoned  to  take  advantage  of  the  depleIon  of  the  phosphate  reserves  

Page 15: OCP BusinessReport

FerGlizer  market  

 u  The  overall  industry  improved  following  the  general  strength  in  phosphate  demand  

u  Phosphate  rock  and  phosphoric  acid  prices  followed  the  price  of  DAP  (Diammonium  Phosphate),  leaving  phosphate  upgrading  margins  virtually  unchanged  from  2010.  

 u   Phosphoric  acid  prices  increased  somewhat  more  than  rock  and  DAP,  resul4ng  in  higher  

upgrading  margins  from  rock  to  acid  and  less  from  acid  to  DAP.  

Source:  The  Market,  Fer4lizer  Week,  World  Bank  and  Pla]s  

Page 16: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 17: OCP BusinessReport

Peers  Comparison  

36%  

27%  

26%  22%  

22%  

37%  

26%  

28%  16%  

84%  

EBITDA  

ROS  

ROE  ROA  

Leverage  

OCP  

Peers  

Page 18: OCP BusinessReport

MulGples  ValuaGon  provides  a  Firm  Value  between    

MulIple  RaIos  

Company  Name   EV/EBITDA   Sales  2011   Currency   EBITDA    

(%Sales)  Net  Income  

(%Sales)   Debt/Equity  

Agrium   6.0   15470   million  USD   14%   9%   1.044181705  Belaruskali   28.1   3217   million  USD   33%   37%   0.727076125  CF  Industries   3.9   6097   million  USD   49%   25%   0.327858881  Israel  Chemicals   7.9   7067   million  USD   31%   21%   1.358257477  K+S   6.0   5150   million  EUR   24%   11%   0.963683528  PhosAgro   5.6   100518   million  RUB   29%   20%   1.800207551  Potash  CorporaIon  of  Saskatchewan   9.6   8715   million  USD   40%   35%   1.071747165  Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company   14.9   1514   million  SR   44%   36%   1.168225709  The  Mosaic  Company   6.8   9937   million  USD   27%   25%   0.356069066  Uralkali   9.9   3500   million  USD   71%   34%   0.571659015  Vale  FerIlizantes   5.0   105520   Million  BRL   55%   36%   0.65  Yara   4.8   80352   million  NOK   23%   15%   0.650327162  

Median   6.4  Average   9.0  Sector  (Specialty  Chemicals)   8.03  S&P  500   8.87  STOXX  Europe  600   7.04  Sector  Mining   6.15  

Source:  Infinancials,  Annual  Reports  2011  

ValuaIon  Results    

EBITDA  2011                                                        6  725  m  MulIples  (EV/EBITDA)    6.4x        EV  2011                43  billion  MAD    

Page 19: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 20: OCP BusinessReport

Income  Statement  Analysis  

Sales  

Margins  

Cyclical  sales  that  experienced  a  huge  drop  in  2009  ager  the  global  economic  downturn.  Since  2010  sales  started  peaking  up  with  consistent  double  digit  growth.  The  demand  for  fer4lizers  in  par4cular  is  increasing  which  is  a  good  indicator  of  business  poten4al.    

Improving  margins  over  4me  and  above  average  for  the  last  two  years.  

P&L ratios 2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   Average  Growth of sales     119%   -­‐57%   61%   31%   39%  Margin / Sales 18%   41%   12%   31%   36%   28%  EBITDA /Sales 18%   41%   12%   31%   36%   28%  ROS (Net income/Sales) 9%   35%   4%   19%   27%   19%  ROE (Net income / Equity) 9%   64%   3%   20%   26%   24%  RONA (Ebit / Net Assets) 9%   62%   3%   17%   26%   23%  CFO (Net Income+Depreciation) 2841   23421   2134   8872   16341   10722  EBIT/Financial Expenses 8.1   14.6   2.6   9.8   16.8   10.4  

Page 21: OCP BusinessReport

Income  Statement  Analysis  

EBITDA   With  an  average  of  28%  over  the  last  four  years,  the  EBITDA  has  been  systema4cally  increasing  up  to  a  level  of  36%  for  the  2011  year  reflec4ng  the  fundamental  shig  in  the  strategy  to  turn  the  company  into  a  successful  efficient  Moroccan  model.  Compared  to  its  peers  the  company  is  slight  below  the  average  37%    When  compared  to  the  financial  expenses  the  company  has  showed  a  healthy  situa4on  to  cover  its  financial  expenses  with  an  average  of  10.4  for  EBIT/Financial  Expenses  and  reaching  levels  superior  to  2.5  in  the  past  five  years    

ROS   Slightly  superior  to  the  average  when  compared  to  its  peers,  26%  versus  27%,  the  Net  Income  has  evolved  posi4vely  during  the  past  five  years  with  an  average  of  19%  ,  an  incredible  jump  from  9%  in  2007  to  27%  in  2011    The  size  of  the  Net  Income  is  interes4ng  allowing  to  build  a  healthy  balance  sheet.  

ROE   Similar  to  the  average  of  its  peers,  the  cost  of  equity  shows  how  shareholders  are  taking  the  same  risk  as  other  companies  in  the  same  sector  across  the  world  

Page 22: OCP BusinessReport

Income  Statement  Analysis  

2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  CFO 2841   23421   2134   8872   16341  Total Debt 564   836   1750   9434   1417  

CFO   When  compared  to  the  debt  carried  by  the  OCP    it  indicates  a  incredible  recover  in  2011  helping  going  ahead  with  future  investments  according  to  the  expansion  plan.  Altough  the  CFO  has  been  erra4c  the  debt  has  been  under  control  all  the  4me,  new  investments  been  made  and  some  cash  leg  to  shareholder’s  equity  

RISKS  

-­‐15%   -­‐10%   -­‐5%   0%   5%   10%   15%  -­‐15%   16,067   19,099   22,131   25,163   28,195   31,227   34,259  -­‐10%   15,026   18,058   21,090   24,122   27,154   30,186   33,218  -­‐5%   13,984   17,016   20,048   23,080   26,112   29,144   32,176  0%   12,943   15,975   19,007   22,039   25,071   28,103   31,135  5%   11,902   14,934   17,966   20,998   24,030   27,062   30,094  10%   10,860   13,892   16,924   19,956   22,988   26,020   29,052  15%   9,819   12,851   15,883   18,915   21,947   24,979   28,011  

OPERATIONAL:  Sensi4vity  Analysis  of  the  Net  Income  to  Changes  in  Sales  and  COGS  

Sales  

COGS  

Page 23: OCP BusinessReport

Income  Statement  Analysis  

RISKS   FINANCIAL  :  Sensi4vity  Analysis  of  the  Net  Income  to  Changes  in  the  Financial  Expenses  

-­‐15%   -­‐10%   -­‐5%   0%   5%   10%   15%  Net  Income   16569.5   16504   16438.5   16373   16307.5   16242   16176.5  %  Change     1.2%   0.8%   0.4%   0.0%   -­‐0.4%   -­‐0.8%   -­‐1.2%  

Financial  Expenses  

Page 24: OCP BusinessReport

Balance  Sheet  Analysis  

BALANCE SHORT VERSION     2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   SUF  2008-­‐2011  Cash  surplus   1096   1372   1476   2085   2823   1451  NFO (with minimum cahs of 0) 19096   23308   25755   33414   38818   15510  FA Fixed assets net 10633   12968   15735   18072   22079   9111  NA Net assets 30825   37648   42966   53571   63720  

D Debt short and long term 2646   12539   13314   19821   13160   621  E Equity 28179   25110   29652   33750   50559   25449  Financing 30825   37649   42966   53571   63719   Cash surplus (+)

Balance Sheet Ratios     2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  Receivables days 94   58   134   96   106  Inventory days 58   62   89   64   84  Payables days 188   289   245   176  NFO/Sales 66%   37%   95%   77%   69%  Leverage (Liability/Equity) 0.27   0.36   0.24   0.43   0.22  Debt/EBITDA 10%   3%   49%   65%   6%  

Page 25: OCP BusinessReport

Balance  Sheet  Analysis  

SUF   Sources  and  Uses  of  Funds  (SUF)  between  the  years  2011  and  2008  indicates  how  the  company  has  accompanied  the  growth  in  sales  through  an  increase  in  the  funds  used  (NFO)  which  at  the  same  4me  has  been  fueled  through  equity,  an  indicator  of  a  sound  balance  sheet.    For  the  year  2011  the  warning  signs  are  the  increase  in  the  number  of  receivable  days  from  96  to  106  and  most  importantly  the  increase  in  the  number  of  the  inventory  days  from  64  to  84.        

NFO  vs  WC   The  sales  are  increasing  and  so  the  financing  needed  to  run  the  opera4ons.  At  the  same  4me  that  the  NFO  is  increasing  the  WC  is  also  increasing  but  at  a  slightly  higher  pace.  We  can  conclude  that  the  company  is  in  a  sound  financial  situa4on  since  according  to  the  equa4on  NFO=WC+Credit,  the  company  has  an  excess  of  funds.    

2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   SUF  2008-­‐2011  NFO 19096   23308   25755   33414   38818   15510  WC 20192   24681   27231   35499   41640   16959  

Cash Surplus (+) 1096   1373   1476   2085   2822   1449  

Page 26: OCP BusinessReport

Balance  Sheet  Analysis  

Risk  Balance  Sheet  

Although  the  company  has  been  run  by  a  variable  leverage,  the  last  year  it  has  shown  a  debt/equity  ra4o  of  0.22  far  below  0.43  of  the  previous  year.  The  leverage  not  only  seems  to  be  under  control  but  also  decreasing  despite  the  recovery  of  the  commodity  market  and  the  increase  in  the  turnover.                

Page 27: OCP BusinessReport

DCF  Analysis  -­‐  AssumpGons  

u  Sales:  I  assumed  that  sales  will  grow  at  constant  8%  every  year  4ll  the  horizon  2020.  I  used  8%  in  order  to  double  the  capacity  produc4on  in  hereager  the  turnover  in  the  next  9  years.  Beyond  2020  the  grow  is  zero  since  I’m  assuming  no  more  capacity  expansion.  

u  EBITDA  Margin:  The  EBITDA  growth  is  constant  at  3.9%  which  what  I  needed  to  have  a  30%  reduc4on  in  the  costs  in  9  years.  

u  DepreciaIon:  I  took  1%  of  the  sales  every  year  u  CAPEX:  Considering  that  the  total  amount  planned  to  be  invested  is  120  billion  MAD  in  the  

period  2010-­‐2020,  the  CAPEX  per  year  is  assumed  to  be  1  billion  MAD.  u  Tax:  Assumed  25%  which  is  the  result  of  the  average  tax  rate  paid  during  the  last  five  years.  u  Working  Capital  Requirements:  taking  an  NFO  propor4onal  to  sales.  In  this  case  I  took  the  

average  of  the  last  five  years,  NFO=69%  of  Sales  u  Discount  Rate  (WACC):  For  the  cost  of  equity  I  took  the  ROE  of  the  last  year,  24%and  for  the  

cost  of  debt  the  risf  free  rate  of  3%.  The  cost  of  capital  total  is  20%.  u  Terminal  Value:  The  perpetuity  of  the  cash  flow  generated  in  2012  with  a  growth  of  zero  and  

a  cost  of  capital  of  20%.  

Page 28: OCP BusinessReport

DCF  Analysis  –  Forecast  Analysis  

2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020  

Sales   65,491   70,730   76,389   82,500   89,100   96,228   103,926   112,240   121,220  EBITDA   22,682   23,566   24,485   25,440   26,433   27,463   28,535   29,647   30,804  Deprecia4on   655   707   764   825   891   962   1,039   1,122   1,212  CAPEX   10,000   10,000   10,000   10,000   10,000   10,000   10,000   10,000   10,000  Tax   5,507   5,715   5,930   6,154   6,385   6,625   6,874   7,131   7,398  NFO   45,189   48,804   52,708   56,925   61,479   66,397   71,709   77,446   83,642  Inc  NFO   3,347   3,615   3,904   4,217   4,554   4,918   5,312   5,737   6,196  

FCF   3,828   4,236   4,651   5,070   5,493   5,920   6,349   6,779   7,210  Terminal  Value   35,589  

Present  Value  of  Cash  Flows  26,781  

million  MAD    

Page 29: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 30: OCP BusinessReport

Findings/Conclusions  

DOES  OCP  CREATE  VALUE?      DOES  OCP  CAPTURE  VALUE?      CAN  OCP  SUSTAIN  THE  VALUE  CREATED/CAPTURED?  

✓  

✓  

✓  

Page 31: OCP BusinessReport

Value  CreaGon  

Percentage  of  global  demand  met  by  OCP  in  phosphate  in  all  forms  

Page 32: OCP BusinessReport

Value  Captured  

   Gross  Margin  Model  

 q  Market  characterized  by  its  cyclicity    q  SensiIve  price;  dependent  on  the  size  

of  the  client  

   Working  Capital  Model  

 q  Financial  strategy  to  increase  the  

capacity  

   Revenue  Model  

 q  OCP  becoming  a  leader  as  reserves  are  

depleIng    q  Need  to  grow  in  ferIlizer  markets  

   OperaIng  Model  

 q  Sales  supported  in  the  main  regions    q  Cross  SecIonal  Teams  

OCP  Business  Model  

Page 33: OCP BusinessReport

Sustainability  

Intangible  Assets  Tangibles  Assets   OrganizaIonal  Assets  

Resources  and  CapabiliIes  

Sustainability  

Sustainability  

imitability  

How  it  is  used  

Low   High   Medium  

✓   X   X  

Page 34: OCP BusinessReport

Findings/Conclusion  

highly  complex  and  uncertain  industry  

As  the  market  for  raw  materials  of  fer4lizer  is  oligopolis4c  at  the  

global  level  

the  prices  of  raw  materials  are  highly  dependent  on  the  

environment  

So  is  the  price  of  fer4lizers.    

changes  cannot  be  easily  predicted  and  influenced  The  only  hope  to  succeed  is  to  develop  a  compe44ve  advantage  by:  

u developing  strong  and  suppor4ve  supply  chain    u managing  it  efficiently  by  alloca4ng  necessary  resources  for  the  

elements  of  the  supply  chain.  

Page 35: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 36: OCP BusinessReport

AcGon  Plan:  FormulaGng  CompeGGve  Strategy  

Choose  a  posiIon  (scope  and  acIviIes)  that  takes  an  

advantage  of  your  capabiliIes  and  protect  the  

firm  from  the  industry  forces  eroding  profits  

Make  sure  the  acIviIes  fit  with  scope  and  are  consistent  with  

exisIng  capabiliIes  

Determine  which  resources  and  capabiliIes  the  

organizaIon  needs  to  develop  to  make  this  posiIon  more  

sustainable  

Influence  compeIIve  forces  in  your  favor  

AnIcipate  change  which  will  erode  the  sustainability  of  your  posiIon,  decide  on  new  direcIons  and  go  back  

to  1  

FormulaIng  CompeIIve  Strategy  

Page 37: OCP BusinessReport

§  Terms  of  Reference  and  Procedure    §  Overview  of  OCP  

§  Market  Analysis:  Trends  and  Opportunities  

§  Benchmark  Analysis  

§  Financial  Analysis  

§  Findings/Conclusions  

§  Recommendations:  Action  Plan  

§  Appendix  

Page 38: OCP BusinessReport

Benchmarking  Analysis  

Company  Name   EV/EBITDA   Sales  2011   Currency   EBITDA    

(%Sales)   ROS   ROE   ROA   LEVERAGE  

Agrium   5.99   15470   million  USD   14%   9%   21%   10%   1.04  Belaruskali   28.08988764   3217   million  USD   33%   37%   52%   30%   0.73  CF  Industries   3.93   6097   million  USD   49%   25%   31%   23%   0.33  Israel  Chemicals   7.94   7067   million  USD   31%   21%   49%   21%   1.36  K+S   5.95   5150   million  EUR   24%   11%   18%   9%   0.96  PhosAgro   5.61   100518   million  RUB   29%   20%   34%   12%   1.80  Potash  Corpora4on  of  Saskatchewan   9.64   8715   million  USD   40%   35%   39%   19%   1.07  Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company   14.94   1514   million  SR   44%   36%   3%   1%   1.17  The  Mosaic  Company   6.84   9937   million  USD   27%   25%   22%   16%   0.36  Uralkali   9.93   3500   million  USD   71%   34%   15%   9%   0.57  Vale  Fer4lizantes   4.95   105520   Million  BRL     55%   36%   26%   16%   0.65  Yara   4.76   80352   million  NOK   23%   15%   27%   16%   0.65  

Median   6.4           32%   25%   26%   16%   0.8  Average   9.0           37%   25%   28%   15%   0.9  

Comparables  –  Key  Figures  (  2011F)  

Source    

Page 39: OCP BusinessReport

Key  Main  Players  of  the  Industry  

Company   DescripIon  Agrium  Inc.  is  a  retail  supplier  of  agricultural  products  and  services  in  North  and  South  America,  a  wholesale  producer  and  marketer  of  the  three  major  agricultural  nutrients  and  a  supplier  of  specialty  fer4lizers  in  North  America  through  its  Advanced  Technologies  business  unit.    

Joint  Stock  Company  "Belaruskali"  produces  and  supplies  potash  mineral  fer4lizers.  It  produces  mineral  potash  fer4lizers  in  the  form  of  fine,  fine  crystallized,  and  granulated  concentrate  of  the  potassium  chloride;  potassium  chloride  technical;  and  sodium  chloride  technical,  common  edible  rock  salts,  common  edible  rock  salt  iodized,  and  common  feeding  salts.  The  company  also  offers  cooking  and  technical  salts.  It  provides  its  products  in  Europe,  East  Asia,  Mediterranean  countries,  South  Africa,  India,  China,  and  South  and  North  America.  Joint  Stock  Company  "Belaruskali"  was  founded  in  1970  and  is  based  in  Soligorsk,  Belarus    

Agrium  

Belaruskali    

a  North  American  manufacturer  and  distributor  of  agricultural  fer4lizers,  based  in  Deerfield,  Illinois,  a  suburb  of  Chicago.  It  was  founded  in  1946  as  the  Central  Farmers  Fer4lizer  Company,  and  for  its  first  56  years,  it  was  a  federa4on  of  regional  agricultural  supply  coopera4ves.  CF  then  demutualized,  and  made  an  ini4al  public  offering  of  shares  of  equity  stock  in  2005    

CF  Industries    

mul4-­‐na4onal  Israeli  manufacturing  concern  that  develops,  produces  and  markets  fer4lizers,  metals  and  other  special-­‐purpose  chemical  products.    Israel  Chemicals    

Page 40: OCP BusinessReport

Key  Main  Players  of  the  Industry  

Company   DescripIon  The  K+S  Group  is  one  of  the  world's  leading  suppliers  of  standard  and  speciality  fer4lizers.  In  the  salt  business,  measured  by  produc4on  capacity,  K+S,  with  sites  in  Europe  as  well  as  North  and  South  America,  is  the  world’s  leading  producer    

a  chemical  Russian  company  producing  fer4lizer,  phosphates  and  feed  phosphates.  The  company  is  based  in  Moscow,  Russia,  and  its  subsidiaries  include  Apa4t,  a  company  based  in  the  Murmansk  Region  and  engaged  in  the  extrac4on  of  apa4te  rock    

Canadian  corpora4on  based  in  Saskatoon,  Saskatchewan.  The  company  is  the  world's  largest  potash  producer  and  the  third  largest  producers  of  nitrogen  and  phosphate,  three  primary  crop  nutrients  used  to  produce  fer4lizer.    

MA'ADEN  (Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Co.)  is  a  diversified  mining  company,  ac4ve  in  gold  base  metals  mining  and  infrastructure  industry.  The  company  is  structures  as  headquarter  corporate  based  in  Riyadh  with  several  subsidiaries.    

a  Fortune  500  company  based  in  Plymouth,  Minnesota.  Mosaic  mines  two  key  crop  nutrients—phosphate  and  potash—and  produces  specialty  products  MicroEssen4als,  K-­‐Mag  and  Pegasus    

K+S    

PhosAgro    

Potash  Corpora4on  of  Saskatchewan    

Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company    

The  Mosaic  Company    

Page 41: OCP BusinessReport

Key  Main  Players  of  the  Industry  

Company   DescripIon  Uralkali  is  a  Russian  potash  fer4lizer  company.  It  is  traded  on  the  London  Stock  Exchange  using  the  symbol,  URKA.  and  its  largest  shareholder  is  billionaire  Suleyman  Kerimov.  The  company  is  based  in  Berezniki,  Perm  Krai,  Russian  Federa4on.    

the  fer4lizer  unit  of  Brazilian  mining  giant  Vale  SA,  Vale  S.A.  is  a  Brazilian  mul4na4onal  diversified  metals  and  mining  corpora4on  and  one  of  the  largest  logis4cs  operators  in  Brazil.  In  addi4on  to  being  the  second-­‐largest  mining  company  in  the  world,  Vale  is  also  the  largest  producer  of  iron  ore,  pellets,  and  second  largest  of  nickel.  Vale  also  produces  manganese,  ferroalloys,  copper,  bauxite,  potash,  kaolin,  alumina  and  aluminium.  In  the  electric  energy  sector,  the  company  par4cipates  in  consor4a  and  currently  operates  nine  hydroelectric  plants.    

Yara  Interna4onal  ASA  is  a  Norwegian-­‐based  chemical  company.  Its  largest  business  area  is  the  produc4on  of  nitrogen  fer4lizer,[2][3]  however  it  also  encompasses  the  produc4on  of  dry  ice,  nitrates,  ammonia,  urea  and  other  nitrogen-­‐based  chemicals.    

Uralkali    

Vale  Fer4lizantes  

Yara    

Yun4anhua  Group  of  China    

Yun4anhua  Group  Co.,  Ltd.,  through  its  subsidiaries,  produces  and  supplies  chemical  fer4lizers,  fiber  glass  materials,  and  organic  and  phosphate  chemicals  

Page 42: OCP BusinessReport

Benchmarking  Analysis  

0%   10%  20%  30%  40%  50%  60%  70%  80%  

Agrium  Yara  K+S  

The  Mosaic  Company  PhosAgro  

Israel  Chemicals  Belaruskali  

OCP    Potash  Corpora4on  of  Saskatchewan  

Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company  CF  Industries  

Vale  Fer4lizantes  Uralkali  

EBITDA(%Sales)  

Page 43: OCP BusinessReport

Benchmarking  Analysis  

0%   5%   10%  15%  20%  25%  30%  35%  40%  

Agrium  K+S  Yara  

PhosAgro  Israel  Chemicals  

CF  Industries  The  Mosaic  Company  

OCP    Uralkali  

Potash  Corpora4on  of  Saskatchewan  Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company  

Vale  Fer4lizantes  Belaruskali  

Net  Income(%Sales)  

Page 44: OCP BusinessReport

Benchmarking  Analysis  

0.00   0.10   0.20   0.30   0.40   0.50   0.60  

Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company  Uralkali  

K+S  Agrium  

The  Mosaic  Company  Vale  Fer4lizantes  

OCP    Yara  

CF  Industries  PhosAgro  

Potash  Corpora4on  of  Saskatchewan  Israel  Chemicals  

Belaruskali  

ROE  

Page 45: OCP BusinessReport

Benchmarking  Analysis  

0.00   0.05   0.10   0.15   0.20   0.25   0.30   0.35  

Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company  K+S  

Uralkali  Agrium  

PhosAgro  Vale  Fer4lizantes  

The  Mosaic  Company  Yara  

Potash  Corpora4on  of  Saskatchewan  Israel  Chemicals  

OCP    CF  Industries  Belaruskali  

ROA  

Page 46: OCP BusinessReport

Benchmarking  Analysis  

0.00   0.50   1.00   1.50   2.00  

OCP    CF  Industries  

The  Mosaic  Company  Uralkali  

Vale  Fer4lizantes  Yara  

Belaruskali  K+S  

Agrium  Potash  Corpora4on  of  Saskatchewan  

Saudi  Arabian  Mining  Company  Israel  Chemicals  

PhosAgro  

Leverage  (D/E)  

Page 47: OCP BusinessReport

Income  Statement  Analysis  

CONSOLIDATED  INCOME  STATEMENT  Millions  of  MAD  December  year  end   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

OperaIng  Income   30766   67446   28671   46272   60640  Opera4ng  expenses   25091   39600   25113   31851   38601  OperaIng  Profit   5675   27846   3558   14421   22039  Financial  Income   1050   2748   1290   1940   1897  Financial  Expenses   700   1908   1391   1475   1310  Financial  profit   350   840   -­‐101   465   587  

Profit  before  Tax  and  Extraordinary  Items   6025   28686   3457   14886   22626  Non-­‐Recurrent  products   2127   28199   1340   7158   537  Extraordinary  Expenses   7294   28362   2280   11152   3731  Profit  From  Extraordinary  AcIviIes   -­‐5167   -­‐163   -­‐940   -­‐3994   -­‐3194  

Profit  Before  Tax   858   28523   2517   10892   19432  

Tax  on  Profit   -­‐1894   5109   1111   2428   4292  Deferred  Taxes   124   -­‐426   -­‐1223  Net  Income  of  Integrated  Companies   2752   23414   1282   8890   16363  

Income  From  Companies  Consolidated  by  the  equity  Method   0   1   1  Net  Goodwill  amor4za4on  Write  Down   2  Net  Consolidated  Income   2752   23414   1282   8889   16360  Minority  Interest   40   26  

                   Group  Share  Net  Income   2752   23414   1282   8849   16334  

Page 48: OCP BusinessReport

Cash  Flow:  Assets  

CONSOLIDATED  BALANCE  SHEET  Millions  of  MAD  December  year  end   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Cash   1096   1372   1476   2085   2823  Accounts  Receivable   8021   10792   10642   12361   17826  Inventory   4064   6775   6236   5671   8970  Securi4es  and  Investment  Securi4es   14635   18260   17087   24997   24094  Currency  Adjustments  -­‐  Assets  (current  items)   53   58   25   49   14  Current  Assets   27869   37257   35466   45163   53727  Fixed  Assets  in  Non-­‐Values   96   119   0   0   0  Intangible  assets   76   133   298   380   203  Tangible  Assets   10082   11707   13178   15795   20409  Investment  in  associates   0   0   1   1   0  Financial  Assets   328   964   2211   1855   1426  Currency  Adjustments-­‐Assets   51   45   47   41   41  Fixed  Assets  Net   10633   12968   15735   18072   22079  

                   Total  Assets   38502   50225   51201   63235   75806  

Page 49: OCP BusinessReport

Cash  Flow:  LiabiliGes  and  Equity  

CONSOLIDATED  BALANCE  SHEET  Millions  of  MAD  December  year  end   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Current  Liabili4es  Debts   7579   12267   8094   9465   11771  Other  provisions  for  risks  and  charges   88   272   83   132   118  Currency  adjustments  -­‐Liabili4es  (current  items)   10   38   58   67   197  Current  Liabili4es   7677   12577   8235   9664   12086  Cash  Liabili4es  (Credit  Bank)   564   836   1750   9434   1417  Total  LiabiliIes   8241   13413   9985   19098   13503  

Shareholders's  Equity   -­‐9860   13562   16741   24338   37038  Minority  Interests   0   0   0   148   175  Assimilated  Shareholders'  Equity   0   0   26   23   21  Financing  Debts   2082   11703   11564   10387   11743  Sustainable  provisions  for  risks  and  charges   37939   11451   12790   9149   13237  Currency  Adjustments-­‐  Liabili4es   100   97   95   92   88  Total  Equity   30261   36813   41216   44137   62302  

                   Total  Equity&Liability   38502   50226   51201   63235   75805  


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