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October 28, 2015
David DodsonPresident, MDC
Building an Infrastructure of Opportunity in North Carolina
The American Dream
How many of you believe that where a person starts in life shouldn’t determine
where they end up?
Complex Landscape, Common ChallengeLack of Mobility: The South stands out
Source: Equality of Opportunity Project data
At the root of the uncertainty lies a pervasive doubt: whether the nation can sustain the American Dream of each generation moving up and doing better than previous generations.
Today we will consider:•What are the current patterns of economic mobility in North Carolina, and what levers can provide economic uplift broadly?
•Who in this region is stuck with limited economic opportunity, and who is on the path to success?
•How can young people growing up in this region access opportunity and participate in future prosperity?
Stuck in PlaceAnnual growth rate of real income across the family income distribution, national
Source: Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upward Mobility
“Inequality would not be a problem if upward mobility were strong in America.”
--Robert Reich, former U.S. Secretary of Labor
Growth and Low MobilityThe paradox of the metro South, 100 Largest Metros
Sources: Forbes, Equality of Opportunity Project, Trulia, Brookings, and U.S. Census Bureau
Forbes Best for
Business Mobility Poverty
Rate
Increase in
Poverty Since 2000
Raleigh, NC 1 94 12.0% 96.8%
Nashville, TN
6 78 14.0% 66.7%
Charlotte, NC
7 98 14.0% 97.4%
Dallas, TX 8 55 14.4% 64.4%
Atlanta, GA 9 96 14.5% 89.9%
Economic Mobility in N.C.What are the chances a child raised in the lowest fifth of the income distribution will rise to the top fifth as an adult in each North Carolina commuting zone?
Commuting Zone
Chance of Rising
Rank out of 729 Zones (#1 is worst)
Fayetteville 3.8% 36
Charlotte 4.4% 53
Winston-Salem 4.5% 58
Raleigh 5.0% 85
Asheville 6.3% 159
• The best mobility in large US commuting zones? In San Jose, CA, a young person has a 12.9 percent chance of rising from the lowest to the highest quintile.
• The worst mobility in large US commuting zones? In Memphis, TN, a young person has a 2.8 percent chance of rising from the lowest to the highest quintile.
Source: Equality of Opportunity Project
Economic Mobility in the TriangleWhat are the chances a child raised in a given quintile of the income distribution will move to another quintile as an adult in the Triangle?
Parent q1 Parent q2 Parent q3 Parent q4 Parent q5
39%28%
20%14% 12%
30%
27%
21%
17%13%
17%
21%
23%
22%
18%
10%14%
20%
23%
24%
5% 9%16%
24%33%
Child q5Child q4Child q3Child q2Child q1
Source: Equality of Opportunity Project
Median Household Income by Race and Ethnicity
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-Year Averages
All Households Black or African American
Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race)
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino
$45,696
$31,912 $34,404
$51,808 $52,176
$34,560 $41,107
$57,431 North Carolina United States
Income Mobility, by EducationChances of moving up or down the family income ladder
Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts
Based in part on a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation model
PreparationObtain secondary
skills and motivation for postsecondary
success
ConnectionUnderstand
application process and financial aid
EntryEnroll, obtain
financial aid, pass assessments, and
complete orientation
ProgressComplete courses and accumulate
credits
CompletionComplete course of
study and attain credential
EmploymentObtain a living wage
job with opportunities for career
advancement
Preventing Loss, Creating MomentumA systems view
Barriers to BelongingRace and the concentration of poverty in schools, 2013
Source: Urban Institute and Southern Education FoundationNote: high-poverty schools are schools where more than 75 percent of students come from low-income families. Low-income students are ones who are eligible for free-or reduced-price lunch.
Share of public school
students from low-income families
Share of low-
income students in high-poverty schools
Share of non-low-income
students in high-poverty schools
Share of black
students in high-poverty schools
Share of white
students in high-poverty schools
Mecklenburg 54% 54% 9% 49% 6%
Wake 34% 11% 1% 9% 1%Guilford 57% 49% 9% 46% 9%Forsyth 54% 40% 4% 36% 4%
Cumberland 58% 27% 8% 27% 9%Durham 61% 42% 9% 36% 6%
Buncombe 54% 6% 1% 8% 2%Gaston 57% 31% 7% 38% 13%
New Hanover 46% 27% 4% 35% 6%
Union 34% 31% 2% 32% 2%
Barriers to BelongingOverall economic segregation index
Source: Martin Prosperity Institute
Barriers to BelongingPercentage of the population under the poverty lineliving in high-poverty neighborhoods
Source: The Century Foundation using U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data
Total White Black Hispanic
15.1
6.3
30.4
21.2
10.3
4.1
18.6
13.811.9
6.5
21.7
13.214.4
7.5
25.2
17.4
1990 2000 2005-2009 2009-2013
Clustering and Fragmenting
• Bill Bishop’s The Big Sort: We’re increasingly living in “balkanised communities whose inhabitants find other Americans to be culturally incomprehensible.”
• Bonding, bridging, and linking social capital
• Amb. James Joseph: Smaller communities of “meaning and memory”
• Experiential and economic clustering/isolation
Upward Mobility
• What is your family’s mobility story?
• What is the role of education, opportunity, and place in that story?
The Path to PossibilityProspects for young people are widely variable, depending on the circumstances of their birth, the inclusiveness of their communities, the dynamism of the economies in which they function, and the quality of the education and workforce systems that serve them.
How do we make sure all of these factors are consistent in the lives of young people so that those who start at the bottom of the income ladder can rise and thrive?
Based in part on a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation model
PreparationObtain secondary
skills and motivation for postsecondary
success
ConnectionUnderstand
application process and financial aid
EntryEnroll, obtain
financial aid, pass assessments, and
complete orientation
ProgressComplete courses and accumulate
credits
CompletionComplete course of
study and attain credential
EmploymentObtain a living wage
job with opportunities for career
advancement
Transportation
Career & Academic
Counseling
Living Wage Employment
Policies
Work Support
sCultural Messages
& Media Representations
Preventing Loss, Creating MomentumCommunity systems context
Institutional & Public Policies
Housing
• It is the systems and supports needed to boost young people to higher rungs on the ladder of economic and personal advancement.
• It includes employers, education systems, community-based organizations, policy makers, civic and neighborhood leaders, philanthropy, and young people themselves
• It engages them all to foster a common strategic vision of aims and outcomes for education and training systems
What is the Infrastructure of Opportunity?
• It takes advantage of local assets and addresses the community’s distinctive challenges
• It should be as pervasive and reliable as the physical infrastructure of roads and water lines
What is the Infrastructure of Opportunity?
Complex Landscape, Common ChallengeLack of mobility: The South stands out
Source: Equality of Opportunity Project data
307 West Main StreetDurham, NC 27701-3215
Phone: 919.381.5802Fax: 919.381.5805
www.mdcinc.org www.stateofthesouth.org