ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN MSA • After rising somewhat in the second half of July, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. have resumed a steady decline, dropping below one million for the week ending on August 8, the lowest level recorded since the week ending on March 14. • Initial claims in Texas and in the College Station-Bryan MSA have declined since the first week of July. • The local June unemployment rate of 5.9% was the second lowest among Texas metro areas. • For the first half of 2020, hotel receipts in Brazos County were 50% of the receipts for the same period in 2019. • Inflation adjusted taxable sales in the College Station-Bryan MSA for the first half of 2020 were down 4.1% compared to the first half of 2019. • Air travel nationally and locally has increased since April. The number of travelers out of Easterwood Airport in July 2020 were 35% of the number in July 2019. • The Business-Cycle Index increased 5.8% from May to June. HIGHLIGHTS AUGUST 2020 PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION AUGUST 2020 INDEX We begin with a set of labor market indicators reflecting national, state and local trends. Next, we turn to local hotel receipts and taxable sales, comparing this year’s values to the same months from 2019. Recent trends in national and local air travel, as well as in state and local traffic data, are also identified. We present our index and business-cycle at the end of this document. The business-cycle index has begun to catch up with current events and it is starting to provide better insight into the current state of the economy in the College Station-Bryan MSA. FOCUS ON THE COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN MSA AND RECENT ECONOMIC DATA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS Figure 1 depicts initial weekly unemployment insurance (UI) claims in the United States and shows the seasonally adjusted series beginning with the week ending on March 14, 2020. Since March 14, 57 million initial claims have been filed. For the week that ended on August 8, 2020, 936,000 workers filed UI claims. This represents the first week that claims were less than one million workers since the middle of March.
Transcript
ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN MSA
• After rising somewhat in the second half of July, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. have resumed a steady decline, dropping below one million for the week ending on August 8, the lowest level recorded since the week ending on March 14.
• Initial claims in Texas and in the College Station-Bryan MSA have declined since the first week of July.• The local June unemployment rate of 5.9% was the second lowest among Texas metro areas.• For the first half of 2020, hotel receipts in Brazos County were 50% of the receipts for the same
period in 2019.• Inflation adjusted taxable sales in the College Station-Bryan MSA for the first half of 2020 were down
4.1% compared to the first half of 2019.• Air travel nationally and locally has increased since April. The number of travelers out of Easterwood
Airport in July 2020 were 35% of the number in July 2019.• The Business-Cycle Index increased 5.8% from May to June.
HIGHLIGHTS
AUGUST 2020
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
AUGUST 2020 INDEX
We begin with a set of labor market indicators reflecting national, state and local trends. Next, we turn to local hotel receipts and taxable sales, comparing this year’s values to the same months from 2019. Recent trends in national and local air travel, as well as in state and local traffic data, are also identified. We present our index and business-cycle at the end of this document. The business-cycle index has begun to catch up with current events and it is starting to provide better insight into the current state of the economy in the College Station-Bryan MSA.
FOCUS ON THE COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN MSA AND RECENT ECONOMIC DATA
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS
Figure 1 depicts initial weekly unemployment insurance (UI) claims in the United States and shows the seasonally adjusted series beginning with the week ending on March 14, 2020. Since March 14, 57 million initial claims have been filed. For the week that ended on August 8, 2020, 936,000 workers filed UI claims. This represents the first week that claims were less than one million workers since the middle of March.
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
2AUGUST 2020 INDEX
FIGURE 1. UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS IN THE UNITED STATES BY WEEK
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
Initial weekly UI claims in Texas are shown in Figure 2. The Texas series is not seasonally adjusted and is therefore more volatile. Almost 3.2 million initial claims were filed between March 14 and August 8. Relative to June, initial claims in Texas increased during the first two weeks of July and have since declined. Initial claims over the last four weeks have been the lowest since the outset of the restrictions due to the coronavirus. The week ending on August 8 saw 51,476 new claims filed, the lowest since the week ending on March 14. The number of workers in Texas receiving unemployment benefits for the week ending on August 1 was 1,237,387.
FIGURE 2. UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS IN TEXAS BY WEEK
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
Mar
ch 14
,20
20M
arch
21,
2020
Mar
ch 2
8,20
20Ap
ril 4
,20
20Ap
ril 11
,20
20Ap
ril 18
,20
20Ap
ril 2
5,20
20M
ay 2
,20
20M
ay 9
,20
20M
ay 16
,20
20M
ay 2
3,20
20M
ay 3
0,20
20Ju
ne 6
,20
20Ju
ne 13
,20
20Ju
ne 2
0,20
20Ju
ne 2
7,20
20Ju
ly 4
,20
20Ju
ly 11
,20
20Ju
ly 18
,20
20Ju
ly 2
5,20
20Au
gust
1,20
20Au
gust
8,
2020
0.0M
2.0M
4.0M
6.0M
8.0M
1,566
,000
1,897
,000
2,12
3,00
0
2,44
6,00
0
2,68
7,00
0
4,44
2,00
0
3,30
7,00
0
3,86
7,00
05,23
7,00
0
6,86
7,00
0
1,408
,000
1,540
,000
1,482
,000
1,308
,000
1,435
,000
1,422
,000
6,61
5,00
0
3,17
6,00
0
1,310
,000
1,191
,000
282,
000
963,
000
United States (Seasonally Adjusted)
Mar
ch14
, 202
0M
arch
21, 2
020
Mar
ch28
, 202
0Ap
ril 4
,20
20Ap
ril 11
,20
20Ap
ril 18
,20
20Ap
ril 2
5,20
20M
ay 2
,20
20M
ay 9
,20
20M
ay 16
,20
20M
ay 2
3,20
20M
ay 3
0,20
20Ju
ne 6
,20
20Ju
ne 13
,20
20Ju
ne 2
0,20
20Ju
ne 2
7,20
20Ju
ly 4
,20
20Ju
ly 11
,20
20Ju
ly 18
,20
20Ju
ly 2
5,20
20Au
gust
1,20
20Au
gust
8, 2
020
0K
100K
200K
300K
254,
084
243,
935
274,
257
134,
065
155,
426
280,
761
276,
185
106,
677141,5
53
105,
516
315,
167
117,
099
127,
717
76,8
04
87,9
08
89,5
47
94,7
23
96,5
93
89,6
76
62,7
09
51,4
76
16,17
6
Texas (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
3AUGUST 2020 INDEX
Figure 3 depicts the weekly unemployment claims in College Station-Bryan for the same period shown in the previous two figures. The data are from the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). As was the case statewide, local UI claims rose at the beginning of July. Since the week ending on July 4, initial claims have fallen each successive week with 271 claims filed during the week ending on August 8. This is the lowest number of claims since the week ending on March 14, but these claims are almost three times the number of claims that were filed during that week. Over the 22 weeks depicted in the figure, 16,293 initial claims have been made in the local area.
FIGURE 3. WEEKLY UI CLAIMS IN COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN
Source: Texas Workforce Commission.
The unemployment rate in College Station-Bryan, along with the rates for Texas and the U.S. are shown in Figure 4. The local unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in June 2020, a 3.1 percentage point drop from the revised May rate of 9.0%. The statewide unemployment rate for June declined to 8.6% from a revised May rate of 13%. The national rate in June was 11.1% and declined to 10.2% in July. The state and metropolitan area unemployment rates for July will be released on August 21 and September 2, respectively.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Mar
ch 14
,20
20M
arch
21,
2020
Mar
ch 2
8,20
20Ap
ril 4
,20
20Ap
ril 11
,20
20Ap
ril 18
,20
20Ap
ril 2
5,20
20M
ay 2
,20
20M
ay 9
,20
20M
ay 16
,20
20M
ay 2
3,20
20M
ay 3
0,20
20Ju
ne 6
,20
20Ju
ne 13
,20
20Ju
ne 2
0,20
20Ju
ne 2
7,20
20Ju
ly 4
,20
20Ju
ly 11
,20
20Ju
ly 18
,20
20Ju
ly 2
5,20
20Au
gust
1,20
20Au
gust
8,
2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1,043
1,899
1,569
1,2691,168
804
988
546
350432
556 532477
527
675597
677
891
613
317 271
92
Weekly UI Claims in College Station-Bryan
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
4AUGUST 2020 INDEX
FIGURE 4. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Seasonally adjusted. Last reported data point: June 2020 for Texas and College Station-Bryan, July 2020 for national Unemployment rate (monthly). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The June unemployment rates for all of the Texas metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) are shown in Figure 5. College Station-Bryan’s rate of 5.9% was second lowest to Amarillo’s rate of 5.8%. Odessa and Beaumont-Port Arthur, both hard-hit by the decline in employment in the oil and gas industry, had the highest unemployment rates at 12.5%. Among the four largest Texas MSAs, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the highest June unemployment rate of 9.6%, a position it has held for the last few months. The rate in San Antonio-New Braunfels and in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington was 8.3%. Austin again had the lowest unemployment rate among the four largest MSAs at 7.3%.
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Pe
rcen
t
10.2
8.6
5.9
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted. Last reported data point: June 2020 for College Station-Bryan and Texas; July 2020for the US (Monthly).Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
College Station-BryanTexasUnited States
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Perc
ent
10.2
8.6
5.9
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted. Last reported data point: June 2020 for College Station-Bryan and Texas; July 2020for the US (Monthly).Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
College Station-BryanTexasUnited States
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
5AUGUST 2020 INDEX
FIGURE 5. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN TEXAS MSAs JUNE 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, seasonally adjusted, June 2020.
Monthly hotel receipts in College Station-Bryan for 2019 and first half of 2020 are presented in Figure 6. Total monthly receipts are based on hotels in Brazos County. Local hotel receipts in January 2020 were up 6.1% compared to January 2019, and in February 2020 they were up 12.9% from 2019. But as seen in the figure, receipts in March, April, May, and June were down 52.3%, 85.1%, 79.1%, and 62.3% relative to the same months of the previous year. Hotel receipts for the first half of 2020 are down $26.6 million, or 50%, compared to the first half of 2019. Local hotels earned almost 30% of their annual revenues during football season (September-November) last year.
LOCAL HOTEL RECEIPTS
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
6AUGUST 2020 INDEX
FIGURE 6. HOTEL RECEIPTS IN COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN
Source: Texas Comptroller; adjustments by Private Enterprise Research Center. Reflects hotels in Brazos County and dollar values are in current dollars.
Figure 7 depicts monthly inflation-adjusted taxable sales in the College Station-Bryan MSA for 2019 and 2020. Taxable sales in January 2020 were up 5.6% from January 2019 and in February they were up 2.7%. In March of this year, they were down 4.6% compared to March 2019. They were down 15.5% in April, 4.2% in May, and 7.7% in June 2020 relative to the same months of 2019. Inflation adjusted taxable sales in January through June 2020 were $85 million lower than the same period in 2019.
LOCAL TAXABLE SALES
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June
July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nov
embe
r
Dece
mbe
r
�0M
�2M
�4M
�6M
�8M
�10M
�12M
�14M
Hotel Receipts in College Station-Bryan
20192020
Hotel Receipts the first half of 2020 are down�26.6 million, or 50%, compared to the first half
of 2019.
29.4% of annual revenues occur duringfootball season: September-November.
|||Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June
July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nov
embe
r
Dece
mbe
r
�0M
�2M
�4M
�6M
�8M
�10M
�12M
�14M
Hotel Receipts in College Station-Bryan
20192020
Hotel Receipts the first half of 2020 are down�26.6 million, or 50%, compared to the first half
of 2019.
29.4% of annual revenues occur duringfootball season: September-November.
|||
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
7AUGUST 2020 INDEX
Figure 8 depicts the number of travelers screened by the TSA from March 2, 2020 to August 16, 2020, along with a series from 2019 for the same day of the week. The traveler count for the month of March 2020 was 48.3% of the traveler count for the same month in 2019. The counts in April, May, June, and July of 2020 were 4.7%, 9.6%, 18.9%, and 26.1% respectively, of the same monthly counts from 2019. Air travel continues its slow rise toward 2019 levels. During the first sixteen days of August, the number of travelers was 28.5% of the 2019 numbers.
AIR TRAVEL
FIGURE 7. INFLATION ADJUSTED REAL TAXABLE SALES IN COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June
July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nov
embe
r
Dece
mbe
r
�290M
�300M
�310M
�320M
�330M
�340M
�350M
�360M
�370MInflation Adjusted Real Taxable Sales College Station-Bryan
20192020
Inflation adjusted taxable sales in January-June 2020 are �85million lower than the same period in 2019, or down 4.1%.
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June
July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nov
embe
r
Dece
mbe
r
�290M
�300M
�310M
�320M
�330M
�340M
�350M
�360M
�370MInflation Adjusted Real Taxable Sales College Station-Bryan
20192020
Inflation adjusted taxable sales in January-June 2020 are �85million lower than the same period in 2019, or down 4.1%.
Source: Texas Comptroller; seasonal adjustment by Private Enterprise Research Center.
FIGURE 8. TRAVELERS THROUGH TSA CHECKPOINTS 2019 VS. 2020
Source: Transportation Security Administration. Data from 2019 is 1 year apart on the same weekday.Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1
0K
500K
1000K
1500K
2000K
2500K
TSA Travelers Throughput 2019 vs 2020
20192020
The number of passengers traveling out of Easterwood Airport during the first seven months of 2019 and 2020 are shown in Figure 9. During January and February 2020, enplanements were up relative to 2019. Similar to the national pattern, total enplanements out of Easterwood for March 2020 were 57% of enplanements from March 2019. In April, the 312 passengers who flew out of Easterwood were 4.3% of the enplanements during April 2019. May’s count of 1,188 passengers was 16.1% of the count from May 2019. June’s 1,241 enplanements were 18.9% of the June 2019 enplanements and July’s 2,306 were 34.9% of the July 2019 enplanements.
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
AUGUST 2020 INDEX 8
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
AUGUST 2020 INDEX 9
FIGURE 9. ENPLANEMENTS AT EASTERWOOD AIRPORT, 2019 VS 2020
Source: Texas A&M University System.
January February March April May June July
2019
2020
2019
2020
2019
2020
2019
2020
2019
2020
2019
2020
2019
2020
0K
1K
2K
3K
4K
5K
6K
7K
8K
5,574
6,180
6,821
6,198
4,229
7,3967,142
312
7,395
1,188
6,556
1,241
2,306
6,610
Enplanements at Easterwood Airport 2019 v 2020
Figure 10 depicts the College Station-Bryan Business-Cycle Index. The economic variables used in the estimation of our Business-Cycle Index are the monthly values of the local unemployment rate, nonfarm employment, and taxable sales, and quarterly values of aggregate wages. The index depicts the abrupt decline in the local economy that begins in March and reaches a trough in April. In May and June, the index rebounded. Even so, the index has declined 12.2% since February.
THE COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN BUSINESS-CYCLE INDEX
FIGURE 10. COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN BUSINESS-CYCLE INDEX
Last reported data point: June 2020 (monthly). Source: Private Enterprise Research Center.2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Inde
x Ja
nuar
y 20
01 =
100
204
College Station-Bryan Business-Cycle Index
Last reported data point: June 2020 (monthly).Source: Private Enterprise Research Center.
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
10AUGUST 2020 INDEX
FIGURE 11. COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN BUSINESS-CYCLE
The CSB Business-Cycle in Figure 11 shows an increase of 5.8% from May to June. There was a much smaller increase from April to May of 0.7%. This rebound follows the 7.8% decline between February and March and the 10.6% decline between March and April. The turnaround since April results from the reduction in the unemployment rate and the increase in nonfarm employment. The local unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in March to 9.3% in April, was 9.0% in May, and declined to 5.9% in June. The declines in nonfarm employment were greatest in April and May; June’s value has rebounded. Inflation adjusted taxable sales fell 8.4% between February and March and fell by 7.8% between March and April. Taxable sales in May and June have rebounded relative to April sales, but were still down 9.1% in June from sales in February. The remaining variable, quarterly aggregate wages, did not change this month.
THE COLLEGE STATION-BRYAN BUSINESS-CYCLE
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Mon
thly
Per
cent
age
Chan
ge
5.8%
Average growth rate
College Station-Bryan Business-Cycle
Last reported data point: June 2020 (Monthly)Month-to-month rates.Source: Private Enterprise Research Center
Month-to-month growth rates. Last reported data point: June 2020 (monthly). Source: Private Enterprise Research Center.
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
11AUGUST 2020 INDEX
County Level Unemployment Insurance ClaimsTexas Workforce Commission, weekly claims by county, https://www.twc.texas.gov/news/unemploy-ment-claims-numbers#claimsByCountyEnplanements at Easterwood AirportTexas A&M University System based on email request. Received August 17, 2020.Hotel ReceiptsData retrieved from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts through Texas Comptroller’s Secure Information and File Transfer System, August 2020. https://comptroller. texas.gov/transparency/open-data/hotel-re-ceipts/InflationU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items [CPIAUCSL], re-trieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL.Wages and Taxable Sales are converted to real dollars (inflation-adjusted) using the CPI-U. Nonfarm EmploymentFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Workforce Commission, and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment for Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas, two-step Seasonally Adjusted, retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/econdata/brysa.aspxTaxable Sales (Sales and Use Tax Allocation)Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Allocation Payment Detail, Current Period Collections. Data available through Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts: https://mycpa.cpa.state.tx.us/allocation/AllocDetail . Histori-cal data prior to 2016 from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. Seasonal Adjustment by Private Enterprise Research Center.Transportation Security Administration Traveler ThroughputTransportation Security Administration https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughputUnemployment RateBureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment by Metropolitan Area, Seasonally Adjusted, Local Area Unemploy-ment Statistics, retrieved from Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/lau/metrossa.htmUnemployment Insurance ClaimsUnited States Department of Labor, Office of Unemployment Insurance, Weekly Claims: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.aspWagesBureau of Labor Statistics, Total Quarterly Wages in College Station-Bryan, TX (MSA), retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/cew/datatoc.htm. Quarterly files by area. Seasonal Adjustment by Private Enterprise Research Center.
DATA SOURCES
The extent of the College Station-Bryan MSA is defined by the Census Bureau and includes Brazos, Burleson, and Robertson counties. The Business-Cycle Index is re-estimated each month using the most recent data for the four economic variables included in the model: the unemployment rate, nonfarm employment, real wages, and real taxable sales. The real wage series is released on a quarterly basis and the other three are released monthly. The underlying data series are subject to revision. With new monthly data and revisions of past data, each month the Index and the Business-Cycle will differ from previous estimates.
For more details about the CSB Business-Cycle Index see: Methodology for Constructing an Economic Index for the College Station-Bryan Metropolitan Statistical Area.
NOTES AND LINKS
Founded in 1977 through the generosity of former students, corporations and foundations, the Private Enterprise Research Center pursues a dual mission of supporting academic research at Texas A&M University and developing market-oriented solutions to public policy problems.
The Brazos Valley Economic Development Corporation serves Brazos County, the City of Bryan, the City of College Station, Texas A&M University, the surrounding region and private sector investors through the Invest Brazos Valley program. BVEDC helps companies launch, grow, and locate in the Brazos Valley.
CONTACT
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE RESEARCH CENTER, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY | SPONSORED BY THE BRAZOS VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
