Oneupweb facebook fallacy

THE FACEBOOK FALLACY:OPEN GRAPH = GOOGLE KILLER

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“Facebook Unleashes Open Graph Search Engine Declares War On Google” - AllFacebook.com, June 24, 2010

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THE SHOT HEARD ‘ROUND THE WEB.

In 1775 the Brits fired on the rebels in Concord, Massachusetts, setting off the Revolutionary War. It was the shot heard ‘round the world. And in the summer of 2010, Facebook, announced the Open Graph search feature. According to the company, “all Open Graph-enabled web pages will show up in search when a user likes them.” A shot blasted across the internet and resounding shockwaves rippled throughout the blogosphere. If you missed it, this is how the headlines sounded off:

“Facebook Open Graph Search Brings the Fight to Google”- Fast Company, June 25, 2010

“Facebook Lights a Fire Under Google – Open Graph Search Engine” - Search Engine Journal, June 25, 2010

IS GOOGLE REALLY UNDER ATTACK?


In the last year, Facebook has edged closer and closer to the number one most trafficked web property—a position that Google had battled with Yahoo and Microsoft over until finally securing the top seat in 2008 (Figure 1).And now Facebook, a search outsider, has stepped into the ring. For the second week of March 2010, HitWise reported that Facebook had surpassed Google in traffic. But does sheer traffic mean that Facebook’s Open Graph search engine can topple Google’s stronghold on the search marketing industry?

Facebook is first and foremost a social networking site and the search functions, up until recently, have been used primarily to reconnect with long lost friends. But Facebook isn’t going it alone. There is an entangled history between Facebook and the search industry. In 2004 and 2007 Google attempted—and failed—to acquire the burgeoning social networking platform. Microsoft tried too, but Facebook wouldn’t budge. So Microsoft took another approach and in 2007, Microsoft invested $240 million dollars in the company (Figure 2, next page). The relationship continues to be leveraged as a strategic force against Google. Remember, Facebook is a social networking platform, not a search engine. But Mircosoft has Bing—the most likely contender that has emerged so far that could challenge Google’s dominance in search. And Microsoft’s Bing is powering Facebook’s Open Graph Search Engine.

Bing provides the capabilities to search the Open Graph and Facebook provides the demographic data. Many are touting this relationship as a new frontier of social search. FastCompany framed it this way: “in short, Facebook can start searching the Web at will, rather than merely its own site. Social semantic search, here we come.”1 Is Facebook maneuvering to take hold of the semantic web and ultimately topple Google?

The short answer is “Yes.” But all is not what it seems. The Red Coats aren’t coming, there was no gunshot and the State of

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Search is well, clicking away. The fact is the war isn’t being waged over who will own the semantic web. For one, semantic search is not a new concept—in fact, semantic search engines already exist, and what’s more, Google has been working with personalized results based on user’s search history and geo-targeting for some time now.

The tantalizing factor, the number that should pique your interest, is that in just a few years, Facebook has grown to 500 million users. And if the growth rate holds, the Facebook population could nearly triple by 2012 (Figure 1). That’s huge. That’s a lot of profiles. That’s a lot of user data. And from this,

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May 2008, Facebook surpasses Myspace in Unique visits

Figure 1. The numbers continue to climb—and Facebook is edging closer to overtaking search engines, like Google, as the most trafficked web property. [source: data compiled from Compete.com and ComScore].

the rapidly expanding social networking site has the potential to build something out of the user base that, for businesses and marketers, could potentially be a huge game changer. And why should Google care? Search is the red herring. That next digital revolution is raging on a different frontier. The plot thickens—and Oneupweb is set on unraveling the headlines. What’s at stake, who stands to benefit, and what does this mean for your online marketing strategy?

The Next Arms Race: Online Traffic

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877.568.7477 • OneUpWeb.com ©2010—All Information in This Document is Copyright Protected and the Property of Oneupweb®03

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Figure 2. Charting the growth and milestones of Facebook. Extrapolating the growth rate into the future, the Facebook population forecasted could nearly triple in two years (R2 value=0.9983) [source Facebook.com].

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It’s complicated. But most relationships are. And making sense of Facebook’s Open Graph is going to be no less difficult than explaining to a friend a convoluted film plot. It begins with the intrigue and deception surrounding two unlikely lovers—but rationalizing the details of a movie romance is not necessarily the point. It’s the drama we love—Ben’s affair with Mrs. Robinson pre-determines his fate with the young Elaine Robinson. And it’s the intangible intricacies that make movies—and social media marketing—so very interesting; where with movies, at least, there’s a narrative arc to help make sense of it all. And that’s what makes Facebook’s Open Graph so very compelling for online marketers. Charting the behavior, preferences and connections across a user’s social network and the web, according to many industry pundits, is a gateway to the semantic web experience. It is like providing a plot for a set of characters—now their actions and behaviors make sense. Ultimately, they say, data-rich Facebook profiles will bridge the gap between search and social. The idea is that, by tracking personal preferences on and off Facebook, it will become possible to build out demographic data across the web. A more complete picture of a user’s interests and habits, many believe, will lead to richer and more meaningful search results for the user.

And for business? Rather than pushing a message across a broad channel, consumers will be pulled in based on the interests they themselves have selected, or rather, “liked”

and “shared” on their graph. Therein lies a new level of demographic targeting organized around consumer social graphs. Because successful search engine marketing begins with this simple premise: consumers aren’t searching for keywords, they are searching for things they need or want. And keywords are the tool du jour for accomplishing this. But rather than using keywords, “semantic search” is a tool that leads consumers to discover products and brands through their social connections.

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Relationships are the heart—and nodes—of the Open Graph. And it’s more than just mapping a user’s network; the Open Graph charts interests and habits across the web. But will it change search as we know it?

GETTING TO KNOW:OPEN GRAPH

IT’S COMPLICATED


The Open Graph is a platform that enables the “semantic web,” simply meaning that it establishes links and relationships across the web that can all be traced back to a user’s profile.

The system is designed to connect the dots, namely between people and the things they like:

One login, one profile1. . Since 2006, Facebook users have had the option to use their Facebook username and pass-word to log in to third party sites. Open Graph has just made it easier for web developers with the implementa-tion of OAuth 2.0, a protocol that provides a simple and standard method to connect to web applications:

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With an ironic twist, the phrases “semantic web” and “semantic search” have been stripped of any concrete meaning. But these are the words bloggers and industry analysts are using to explain what the Open Graph does. If you said “it’s cold in here” and your friend got up and closed the window—that’s a semantic leap. In other words, they decoded the meaning of your statement and extended your words into a sensible and pertinent action. Don’t hold your breath waiting for Facebook to fetch you a blanket. But consider this angle: it may not be a blanket; rather, Facebook brings to you an ad targeted to a very specific and niche interest of yours. Say, for a gardener, an upcoming flower show in the area. But instead of searching for “flowers,” the ad is displayed when the user logs in because Facebook knows the user.

“OAuth 2.0 is the next evolution of the OAuth protocol which was originally created in late 2006. OAuth 2.0 focuses on client developer simplicity while providing specific authorization flows for web applications, desktop applications, mobile phones, and living room devices. “

SEARCHING FOR MEANING… AND WHAT THE HECK DOES SEMANTIC SEARCH HAvE TO DO WITH FACEBOOK?

What this means: This ain’t Vegas. Facebook shares profile information with partnering sites, like Yelp (Figure 3). And then Yelp completes the circle and sends back users preferences to Facebook. It’s sharing across websites—and that’s monumental news when it comes to filling out user profiles with more meaningful and robust data.

Take Moe, for example. Moe navigates to Yelp.com, Yelp recognizes Moe’s Facebook ID. Moe can share restaurant reviews and recommendations with his Facebook friends straight from the Yelp website. And Moe can also see what his Facebook friends are doing on Yelp.

Figure 3. Yelp allows users to connect with their Facebook profiles. Users can share recommendations or reviews with their Facebook network directly from the Yelp website.

THE PERSONALIZED WEB


Real objects, real connections2. . The Open Graph protocol goes beyond “Liking” a webpage. Equipped with the right plugins and tags, a webpage becomes an “object” that can be shared on Facebook. Liking a pair of Levi jeans, for instance, is an example of connecting to an “object” on the Open Graph (Figure 4).

What this means: A user’s activity outside of Facebook is fed into their news stream and network feeds—so their friends can see that they like a certain product or a particular restaurant. And when a user “likes” or shares an object, they are creating a link to that object that is stored on their profile.

What businesses can do: Whether your company is looking to get started with social media marketing, or just ready to take it further, Facebook Open Graph offers a variety of new functions that can help enhance consumer engagement. The first steps are to make sure your website is an object on the Open Graph—talk to your social media marketing partner or web development team to get the ball rolling. Second, consider what social plugins are right for your website (Figure 5). The “Like button” is the most prevalent, but other features, like “recommendations” may be particularly useful for e-commerce or travel websites.

Figure 5. The tools to connect. A variety of social plugins are available that make it possible for businesses to integrate Facebook sharing right on their website [Source Facebook.com].

Figure 4. Consumers can share products that they like with their friends on Facebook. Plugins can be modified so that users can also post comments directly to their profile.

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THE EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES:FACEBOOK SEARCH UNDRESSED There are a number of reasons why Facebook is getting eyed as tomorrow’s Google. Users spend a lot of time on Facebook, culminating in a months time 13 billion minutes collectively.2 But comparing time on Google to time on Facebook is apples and oranges. Google states clearly that “we may be the only people in the world who can say our goal is to have people leave our homepage as quickly as possible.”

And it’s not how quickly consumers get served, but why. The most compelling reason to marketers why Facebook is tomorrow’s search leader is that, unlike Google’s search advertising business, Facebook is not constrained by keyword searches. In other words, users have to be looking for something to get served an ad on Google. Bindu Reddy, a former Google AdWords project manager writes, “Facebook, on the other hand, becomes the world’s identity gatekeeper—your age, sex, location, where you went to school, where you work, who your friends are—all of this personal data is used to serve you tidbits of information that you are likely to be interested in.”

But are we getting duped to think that Facebook can dress as both a social networking platform and a practical search engine? For one, searching on Facebook is fundamentally different than Google. People search for “objects”—that is, other people, brands, or things—that they want to connect with on Facebook’s platform. On Google, the purpose is to find information to consume—news, product reviews, facts, opinions, etc. Yet, news spreads like wildfire over the social network. Consumers are connecting with and sharing content across the web using their Facebook ID (Figure 6). And as the line between consuming and connecting blurs, so will the division separating search engines and social networking platforms.

Figure 7. Online Identities. Users are now logging into websites us-ing existing social ids. Even before the Open Graph API was released, almost half of social networking users were choosing Facebook Con-nect over Google Buzz and Twitter to login into third-party websites, according to a study by Gigya.

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Figure 6. On Mashable.com, readers can share content with their social networks by signing in with their social networking user ID. Facebook

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Figure 8. Google owns the lion share of search queries. But will Facebook’s partnership with third-party sites change the way we search for and navigate the internet? [source: comScore expanded search query report February 2010 vs. January 2010].

UNDERNEATH THE CLOAK: THE FACEBOOK PROFILEFacebook is not known for its search functions. So how are consumers using Facebook—and what does their behavior tell us about the future of search and social? These are the facts:

Forty-six percent of social networking users 1. are connecting through Facebook. Sharing has never been easier. Social networking usernames and passwords can be used to authenticate identity on third-party websites (Figure 7). This is an important feature for building out trackable relationships on the semantic web. And Facebook IDs dominate social sharing online.

436 million search queries, on par with eBay.2. The Volume of search queries on Facebook jumped 10 percent in February 2010—after the search box was move to a more prominent location on top of the page. Still, Facebook only handles a fraction of searches compared to Google. To put that number in perspective, there are just as many searches on eBay as there are on Facebook (Figure 8). Will consumers think to use Facebook for search—or will the Open Graph partnerships with other sites, like Yelp, change how and where consumers search online?

Two words: Moe Friendly.3. People search for people on Facebook. The average Facebook search is two words (Figure 9). And most searches for people consist of—you guessed it, a first and last name query. Although, there has been a recent uptick in branded searches, like iPad; but this is likely the upshot of people looking to connect with brands they are already loyal to rather than searching to discover new products. In other venues, longer “keyword phrases” are more effective (and therefore valuable) for targeting precise information.

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SEARCH QUERIES, JUNE 2010

WORDS PER SEARCH - US

Figure 9. Facebook searches largely consist of a first and last name. Search queries on engines like Google have grown in length.

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“Facebook can search the web at will.” Really? No, not really. As one blogger put it, “Unlike Google which sends out “Google Bots” to “crawl” the web, Facebook makes websites come to them.” And this is an important point to chew on—whereas Google indexes any web page, Facebook will only pick up on web pages that have the proper Open Graph (OG) meta-tags.

SPINNING THE THREADS:A LITTLE CHILD SUDDENLY GASPED OUT, “BUT HE HASN’T GOT ANYTHING ON.”The weavers came to town telling the emperor that they could produce the finest cloth in the kingdom, but only sophisticated and intelligent people would actually be able to see and appreciate the fabric. So when they dress the emperor in the new suit, he is too ashamed to admit that he can not see the fine clothes, so the tale goes. And with the announcement of Facebook’s Open Graph search, the weavers set to work spinning:

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Social Marketing Optimization (SMO) is the New SEO. In Facebook’s announcement, it was stated that only “Open Graph-enabled web pages” would appear in the search results. What many people heard was this: “you can optimize for Facebook.” Or, worse yet, this came across to many as a signal that they could manipulate results with “Like” baiting—all too reminiscent of the Cowboy SEO days.

The Open Graph is searchable. Semantic search is really just about more relevant search results derived from contextual meanings and not just keywords and linking factors. In the case of Facebook, the idea is that search results that are influenced by a user’s social graph will have more real-life relevancy to users and therefore be more valuable. But going back to Fact #3, people searches are more common on Facebook than service or product inquiries.

TO THIS

Webpages on the graph will be treated like any other Facebook page. Before, Facebook would only include Facebook pages in search results. With this new platform, external websites have the potential to show up in search results alongside regular Facebook pages. Third-party websites equipped with Open Graph protocol, like TripAdvisor.com or OneUpWeb.com, will appear side by side in the search results with other Facebook page.

FROM THIS


Is Facebook really looking to get in on Google’s turf? Search is a competitive industry. And for good reason. The search engine with the most traffic can get top dollar for running ads—the more traffic, the greater the potential reach. In the mid 1990’s, Excite, Lycos and Yahoo! were the big players. But something better came along. It was called PageRank. Google launched in September 1998 and in the first month of operation, the search engine answered only 10,000 queries.3 Over a decade later, Google receives that many queries in a second. Google’s investment in search has paid off. Garnering as much as two thirds of the search market (Figure 10), the company has built a sound business model on advertising. And to the searches goes the ad revenue—Google’s search advertising business is a $25 million industry.4

And the software company, Microsoft, wants a piece of the search pie. After unsuccessful attempts to grab hold with MSN.com, Microsoft recovered lost ground after launching Bing in 2009. Bing’s growth has been slow and steady. Strategically partnering with Yahoo and Facebook will help Bing expand its reach.

THE PLAYING FIELD: THE SEARCH MARKET INDUSTRY

The Secret Weapon: What if a Search Engine Could Read Your Mind?What if a search engine knew your likes, dislikes, hobbies and interests. Would users be more inclined to click on sponsored listings if ads were more nuanced and personal? So rather than always delivering the same Pillsbury ad to any one searching for “cake,” the search engine would draw

on profile information. “Cake” doesn’t always mean just one thing. For the techie, cake is a PHP development platform; to the hipster, it is a band that was popular in the late 1990’s. And for the consumer searching on a term, marketers have a better chance at grabbing their attention if the ad resonates with the consumer’s interests. The problem is this: how can a search engine acquire that kind of consumer data? The Open Graph, many think, may be the answer.

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Figure 10. Percent of search market share. Yahoo slipped 2.3 percentage points in the year after Bing came onto the scene.

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Facebook’s Not-So-Secret Weapon: Demographic Data500 million profiles strong, the question is this: With this data, will Facebook be better at knowing what individual consumers want than Google? Facebook serves targeted ads without the user even running a search—they simply have to be logged in. And when asked what the number one “greatest positive impact will be on social media marketing,” the answer was better demographic targeting (Figure 11). Imagine the possibilities: more relevant ads will translate into higher conversion rates. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

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WHAT WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POSITIVE IMPACT ON SOCIAL MARKETING IN THE FUTURE?

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Figure 11. Better demographic targeting is believed to have a positive impact on social media marketing [Source: JupiterResearch/ClickZ Social and Mobile Marketing Executive Survey].

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WHAT WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON SOCIAL MARKETING IN THE FUTURE?


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Figure 12. Net revenues after companies pay Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC) to partner sites. Facebook’s ad model is a relative new-comer. [Source: Google, Yahoo and Microsoft revenue from eMarketer, 2010].

*Reuters reported that Facebook generated revenue of $700 million to $800 million in 2009.

Let them Eat Cake! Google Wants to Give Marketers What They WantAnd Google’s eyes are on the social transformation of the web. After a successful year in 2009, Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt acknowledged that 2010’s strategy was very much about ‘reinventing search; because as colleague Jonathan Rosensweig reasoned, “you will trust a restaurant review more from a friend, so maybe it should have a higher ranking, but only for you.”5 In the wake of the social boom, Google is hedging their bets that the ground underneath the search empire is moving:

Consumer participation 1. is at an all time high. It is the age of discovery and recommendations. Mobile phones make it possible for virtual networks to travel wherever the consumer goes. 175 million people will connect to Facebook on any given day, and more than 65 million do so from their phones. When they connect. They share. Over 1.5 million pieces of content, including reviews and recommendations, are passed across the Facebook platform.6

Social media marketing is no longer a fad.2. Online social networks do not exist within a vacuum. Consumer habits and social behaviors are in fact deeply intertwined—sponsored results, display ads, recommendations, and social influences play a role in every decision, every click. ClickZ reported early this year on a survey that found 81 percent of respondents received product recommendations from friends and followers—and as many as three-quarters of that consumer group, cited that the online advice influenced purchasing decisions.7 And display advertising and interactive polls grab consumer’s attention even when they aren’t searching for a product.

Read Between the Lines:It’s Not About Sharing, And It’s Not About SearchAd revenue is admittedly Google’s sweet spot (Figure 12). Currently, marketers are willing to pay top dollar for a Google sponsored listings or pay-per-click ad. Simply, Google has the traffic and can deliver the most impressions. But Facebook has a stake in the ad game, too. Mark Zuckerberg, founder and CEO of Facebook, was clear about the business model: “we are working on building an ad business, and that’s a big part of what we do.”8

When it comes down to it, for both Facebook and Google, it is not about just giving their users the best search results or the most engaging experience—that’s only one side of the coin. Ad revenue on social networking sites is expected to pick up dramatically in the next few years. Both Google and Facebook will be competing for a bigger share of advertising budgets—and that means giving marketers what they want: better demographic targeting.

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The Open Graph is an enabling platform, simply meaning that it facilitates sharing across the web—and it also creates a universal protocol for tracking, aggregating and storing user data. And by categorizing demographics, browsing behavior and consumption habits of Facebook users, will Open Graph offer what the dreams of a Googlezon and Amazoogle promised?At the early stages of development, it is difficult to predict with any certainty what kind of ROI advertisers can expect in the future. One thing is for certain, and that is that the internet industry is volatile—what’s here today may be gone tomorrow. MySpace, Facebook, Google, Yahoo or Bing may leave the scene as quickly as they emerged. What will remain, however, is a rich and interactive advertising space. Consider these facts:

In 2009, $4 billion was spent advertising on social • networks.

Spending is expected to increase 68 percent this year • with $7.5 billion going to advertising on social networks in 2010, according to a recent report from Borrell.

By 2015 the report projects ad spending to be upwards • of $38 billion.

The ground is shifting, and we are on the cusp of a new digital marketing revolution. This isn’t about Facebook or Google anymore—Mrs. Robinson is out of the picture—now it’s about getting personal. And that’s the next level of online advertising. It’s direct. It’s social. And most importantly, it is where your online advertising strategy needs to go in order to keep up with today’s on-the-go social consumer.

PREPARE FOR CHANGE, AND FOLLOW THE MONEY

Get in on the ground floorThere will likely be a redistribution of online ad revenue as social advertising grows, and social channels are sure to steal some of the share from Google PPC budgets. The digital shift is also transforming how businesses market to consumers. Here’s what you can do to absorb the aftershock:

Plug-in to the Open Graph. • The tools are there. And it is easier than ever before for consumers to recommend products and brands to their entire network with just a simple mouse click—but they can’t share it if you’re web-site isn’t integrated with the Open Graph API (see page 7 for information on Open Graph plug-ins).

Don’t jump head first into a shallow pool.• In other words, there isn’t the same depth of knowledge when it comes to advertising on social networks as there is for more tra-ditional pay-per-click channels, like Google. And it’s ex-tremely important to monitor the success of campaigns early on. A history of poorly performing ads can damage the future cost per action (CPA) of campaigns in the fu-ture. And for many companies, the added challenge is finding reliable analytics for measuring the effectiveness of social advertising channels. As the adage goes, you can’t improve what you can’t measure.

Keep an eye on the mark & collect your own data. • Not all industries can expect to see the same kind of results from social media marketing tactics. You don’t become a sharpshooter just by painting on a target after the fact—precision-targeting ad requires knowledge of the online community. Placing an ad on Facebook of a woman in a bikini may get a lot of clicks, but that doesn’t always translate into sales or qualified leads if what your selling is gardening supplies.

Measure, refine and maximize ad spend.• You wouldn’t use the same ad copy on a billboard as you would in a maga-zine. And advertising across social channels requires simi-lar consideration. Test ad copy and creative to see what performs best for that particular outlet. Rich media and interactive ads may also require a different strategy to en-gage the consumers.

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. • There’s more than one way to connect online (see page 8) and a key demo-graphic may be using a different service. Be available to your audience across social channels. Advertising is avail-able on many online networks including LinkedIn and YouTube. Twitter is also in the process of fine-tuning their advertising model.

Call Oneupweb.• The possibilities are monumental and the details are dizzying—but Oneupweb is here and ready to distill the noise and make sure business is poised for prof-it—no matter how the digital landscape evolve.

Relationships don’t have to be complicated. Simply, by understanding each others needs and wants, businesses and consumers can build meaningful and valuable connections online. So go ahead, introduce yourself.

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ENDNOTES:1. Addy Dugdale’s speculations on the effects of Facebook’s Open

Graph appeared in the artile Facebook Open Graph Search Brings the Fight to Google, (FastCompany, June 25, 2010).

2. Nielsen, Top 10 Social Networking and Blog Sites Ranked by Total Minutes for April 2009 and Their Year-over-Year Percent Growth (U.S., Home and Work).

3. Search Engines: a timeline. MarketWatch.com.

4. Google 2009 Q4 Earnings.

5. Erick Schonfeld (TechCrunch Jan 21, 2010).

6. In an interview with TechCrunch, Facebook’s COO Sheryl Sandberg said that 175 million people log into Facebook each day.

7. In a study conducted by social networking site myYearbook, 81 percent of respondents said they’d received advice from friends and followers relating to a product purchase through a social site; 74 percent of those who received such advice found it to be influential in their decision. (Click Z, January 2010).

8. From the privacy press conference, May 26, 2010, Facebook headquarters in Palo Alto, CA.

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OUR SOCIAL SITESABOUT ONEUPWEB | Oneupweb has been an innovator in

digital marketing for more than a decade, creating integrated online

marketing plans that incorporate natural search engine optimization (SEO),

paid search marketing (PPC), social media marketing, digital pr, display

advertising, analytics, creative services, mobile marketing, website

design, web 2.0 technology, audio/video/podcasting, and research,

training and consultation. An award-winning company, Oneupweb is

privately held and located in Traverse City, Michigan. For more

information on Oneupweb, please call 231.922.9977, visit

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Date post:	22-Sep-2014
Category:	Documents
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Oneupweb facebook fallacy

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