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Strategic VisionGoals

Objectives

Problem Identification

Alternatives

Analysis & Evaluation

Decision on Strategic Plan

Priority Setting, Implementation

Operations

Monitoring

I-1

Strategic Planningfor Sustainable

Metropolitan Transport

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Conversation Between Alice (in Wonderland) and the Cheshire Cat*Alice: “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?

Cat: 'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,'

Alice: 'I don't much care where----'

Cat: 'Then it doesn't matter which way you go'

*Lewis Carroll

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“When you come to a fork in the road, take it”*

* Yogi Berra, American Baseball Player and Philosopher

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• Transport problems growing inmagnitude and complexity

• Related to other strategic issues: – Land use– Climate change, energy, local air quality– Safety, security, health– Economic competitiveness

• Transport too often implemented and operated in pieces with too little decision support information

Strategic Planning forMetropolitan Transport: Why?

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Strategic MetropolitanTransport Planning (SMTP)

• Purpose of process is to serve strategic decisions for metropolitan transport

• Focuses on:– Major investment needs/priorities– Strategic (long-term, regional) operating and

management policies

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• Improves decision making by providing essential decision support information

• Improves coordination of all transport and related policies and investments

• Helps achieve consensus– Transparency– Involvement

• Helps make best use of scarce resources of all kinds

Good Strategic Planning:Good Strategic Planning:Key to Successfully Dealing Key to Successfully Dealing

with Growing Challengeswith Growing Challenges

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Effective SMTP“The 5-C Process”

• Comprehensive: Whole area, all modes• Continuous: Monitoring• Cooperative: All stakeholders• Connected: To $ decisions• Championed

SMTP5-C

Process

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Strategic VisionGoals

Objectives

Problem Identification

Alternatives

Analysis & Evaluation

Decision on Strategic Plan

Priority Setting, Implementation

Operations

Monitoring

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• Related to outcomes, e.g., safe, clean, affordable, not outputs, e.g., “4 ring roads + 50 km metro”

• Transport perspective goes beyond congestion considerations:– Access as well as mobility– Safety

• Vision has more than transport dimensions

Metropolitan VisionWhat Should the Metropolitan Area

Look Like in 20 Years?

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Quality of Life:More than Green House Gas

Emissions

• Land use• Social and economic development, equity

– Gender equality– Needs of disabled

• All aspects of the local and global environment, e.g., open space, emissions

• Energy

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Role of Land UseRole of Land Use

• Visual illustration of future quality of life

• Macro scale (10,000 meter altitude view) – Balance among jobs, housing, other

activities– Guide as well as “serve” land use

• Site-plan concepts

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What kind of future?

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What kind of future?

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• Analyze current and future (if current trends continue?) transport and related conditions, e.g.,– Congestion– Health

• Safety • Local air quality

– Climate change– Logistics costs– Economic, social development– Sustaining existing system

Define and Understand the Problems Needing Solutions4

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• Causes, not symptoms• Congestion is only one symptom;

There are others• Focus on:

– Demographic, social characteristics – Land use – Operations and management – Pricing– Network characteristics

• e.g., structure, capacity, design, condition

Identify Underlying Causes

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Symptom: Traffic Congestion

BeijingXian

Manila

Bangkok

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Poor Land Use, Site PlanningA Possible Cause of Congestion

Auto dependent Residential

• Widely dispersed, single-purpose developments (“bedroom” communities)

• Site planning not pedestrian or transit friendly

• Site planning forces dependency on private, motorized modes

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Dispersal of Urban Activities

“China: Building Institutions for Sustainable Transport”, Zhi Liu, Smith, et al, World Bank, 2006

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Pedestrian, Bicycle, Public Transport Friendly?

Beijing

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Demand SideA Possible Cause of Congestion

• Explosive population, income and motorization (2, 4 wheelers) growth

• Declining household sizes– Grown children moving to own homes– More trips per capita

• Changing travel patterns– Less core-focused, smaller O/D volumes– More non-work travel

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Changing PT Changing PT Demand PatternsDemand Patterns

Accra, GhanaAccra, Ghana

2004

2013

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Supply Side Causes of Congestion

• Pedestrian/Bicycle

• Public transport

• Roads

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Pedestrian/Bicycle Problems

• Missing connectivity and coverage• Poor infrastructure condition• Little or no street lighting• Few protected crossings • Encroachment by hawkers, parking

– Poor enforcement

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Poor Pedestrian Environment

Panjin

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Public Transport Problems

• Little or no regulation– Safety, service quality

• Buses stuck in traffic• Route network

– Redundant, confusing, unmatched to needs • Insufficient and/or excess capacity • Inefficient fare collection• Poor quality infrastructure and equipment

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Roadway Problems

• Insufficient arterial connectivity, capacity• Poor/non-existent secondary road system• Insufficient off-street parking• Poor traffic engineering• Poor design standards• Poor enforcement of traffic, parking rules• Infrastruture condition

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Poor/No Secondary

Street Network

ManilaBangkok

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Encroachment, Enforcement

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Is Congestion the Only Transport Problem?

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Other Transport Problems• Safety, security• Air quality• Climate change• Economic competitiveness, logistics• Sustaining the existing system

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Other Problems with a Transport Dimension

• Economic competiveness and development

• Equity/Equality• Health• Access to housing• Etc.

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Consider the Right Alternatives

• Begin with current and expected “no project” future issues

• Be multi-modal: In public transport studies, consider transit-supportive highway improvements, and vice-versa

• Include land use, systems management and operations policies in package

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There Is No One, ”Always Best,”Type of Transport Improvement

• Cover a range of alternatives– Types of modes– Levels of investment: Not just high cost

options!!!!!• Consider more than just metros, ring roads

and flyovers. – Better management and operations– Street/roadway priority, other bus improvements– BRT– LRT– HOV lanes– Arterial/secondary road improvements

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Rapid TransitOptions

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Road Improvements

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Be Multi-Modal

• Each alternative should be judicious combinations of:– Modes: Roadway, parking, and public

transport – Actions: Investment, management, and

operations improvements• New highway capacity projects (e.g., road

and expressway widening, new facilities) are excellent opportunities for dedicated public transport facilities

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Mexico City Metro,ExpresswayBrisbane BRT

Leeds UK

Beijing BRT,Expressway

Barcelona LRT,Arterial

Road/PT Projects

Paris, Expressway Median Transitway

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Land UseLand Use

Transport

Induce Serve

Land Use/Transport Relationship

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Transport

Land Use

Continue current trend

Create new medium density

mixed use nodes, strengthen CBD

Homogeneous high-density

Emphasis exclusively NMT, PT/RT

? ? ?

Mixed modes ? ? ?Road

emphasis? ? ?

? Consistent LU/Transport Strategy

Strategic Metropolitan Transport and Land Use Alternatives

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• Quantitative and qualitative factors• Focus on people rather than vehicles

– Travel times– Accessibility– Reliability

• Economic, environment, land use, energy, and social benefits and impacts

Develop Complete, Objective, Reliable Decision Information6

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Money Matters

• Life-cycle costs (initial Invst., ongoing Ops.)

• Financial sustainability • Risk

– Higher costs than expected– Fewer resources than expected

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Do Not Slant Analysis to Favor Pre-determined Solutions!!

• Biased assumptions– e.g., fares, capacity standards

• Non-competitive alternatives • Under-estimated costs• Inflated benefits• Ignored risk

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Strive for Open Decision-Making • Make decision information available to the

general public in a timely fashion• Hear from all stakeholders, including

citizens - before decisions are made• Inform decision makers of stakeholder

concerns before they choose• Reflect outstanding stakeholder concerns in

next development phase

7

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Do Not be Afraid to Defer Some Decisions to After Additional Planning

• For major investments, before selecting mode(s), general alignments, may need more detailed studies to nail down:– Costs– Benefits– Environmental, social impacts– Operational, physical feasibility

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Project Identification (Alternatives Analysis)

Feasibility Study/Preliminary Design

Number of Alternatives and Level of Detail

Level of Engineering Definition, Level of Engineering Definition, Analysis DetailAnalysis Detail

Num

ber o

f Alte

rnat

ives

Num

ber o

f Alte

rnat

ives

Highest

Lowest

Minimal 30%Design

Final Design

Metropolitan Priority Corridors,

Alternatives

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Remember the Basics!

Strategic VisionGoals

Objectives

Problem Identification

Alternatives

Analysis & Evaluation

Decision on Strategic Plan

Priority Setting, Implementation

Operations

Monitoring

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