Opportunities and Constraints on Possible Options for Transport Sector CDM Projects – Brazilian Case Studies

Suzana Kahn Ribeiro

Importance of Transport Sector Regarding GHG Emissions

•The sector accounts for approximately 30% of global related GHG emissions•The main modalities are road and aviation ( 90% of CO2 emissions caused by transport)

•Both are showing an impressive increase, especially in developing countries

ENERGY AND TRANSPORT - WORLD USE OF OIL PER SECTORENERGY AND TRANSPORT - WORLD USE OF OIL PER SECTOR

Consumo Mundial de Óleo Diesel - 1973

Non Energetic Use6%

Other Sectors25%

Industry26%

Transport43%

Consumo Mundial de Óleo Diesel - 2000

Transport58%

Other Sectors16%

Industry20%

Non Energetic Use6%

1973

2000

43% 58%

+16.5%

ENERGY AND TRANSPORT – ENERGY AND TRANSPORT –

ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT PER REGIONENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT PER REGION

Economies in Transition

OECD Delloping Countries World

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

[GtE

P]

3.6% per year

1.4% per year

Developed countries

Economies in Transition

Developing countries

World

(WBCSD, 2004)

ENERGY AND TRANSPORT – ENERGY AND TRANSPORT – WORLD SHARE OF ENERGY DEMAND IN WORLD SHARE OF ENERGY DEMAND IN

TRANSPORTTRANSPORT

Natural Gas2,4%

Coal0,4%

Electricity1.2%

Oil96,0%

(IEA 2002)

CONSUMPTION OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL - WORLD (1999) % OF THE TOTAL DEMAND OF ENERGY IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

(WBCSD 2002)

0

25

50

America do Norte Europa Ocidental Ásia Ind. Ásia em Des. América Central edo Sul

Mundo

Consumo de Gasolina [%] Consumo de Diesel [%]

North America

Central and south America

Western EuropeAsia Industrialized Asia in development

World

Consumption of Gasoline (%)

Consumption of Diesel (%)

Additional Benefits to those Related to GHG Emission Reduction

• Better urban air quality

• Lower dependence on oil/energy security

• Congestion

• Job generation

• Energy transport needs are a key to development. Therefore, its better use should be highly promoted in developing countries.

• This turns energy efficiency in developing countries into a very powerful instrument to achieve the goal of decreasing energy growth rate in transport sector.

An important approach to use when analysing possible ways to reduce GHG emissions in

transport is the ASIF methodology

G = A*S*I*F

G : GHG emissions

A: Total travel activity ( in passenger or tonnes.kilometers)

S: Sectoral structure ( modal share )

I: Energy intensity( fuel efficiency)

F: Fuel carbon content

•From those variables, F ( fuel) and I ( energy intensity) are the easiest to be altered and dealt with in the transport sector.

•Projects regarding fuel change and energy efficiency improvement are worth being analysed when addressing GHG reduction in transport sector

Brazilian Case Studies

• Fuel carbon content reduction ( biodiesel mixture – 10% in diesel)- Rio de Janeiro city as a quantitative example

• Energy efficiency through labelling program – São Paulo city as a quantitative example

Biodiesel

• Biofuel is a fuel produced from biomass and the biomass can be made up from a great variety of growing crops. Organic residues can also be used. They can be used either pure or blended with conventional fuels. Since the fuel is produced from biomass, the CO2 emitted, when the biomass is burned, will be captured during the biomass growth.

• The net carbon balance varies a lot.

Transport Fuels Matrix - BrazilTransport Fuels Matrix - Brazil

(MME, 2004)

Álcool Hidratado

6,6%

Gasolina C35,3%

Óleo diesel55,7%

GNV2,4%

SUBSTITUTION FOR BIODIESEL

2 to 5% 1,1 to 2,8%

(*) All gasoline in Brazil has around 25% of ethanol.

Ethanol %

6,6 + 8,8 15,4%

Anhydrous Ethanol

8,8%

Diesel Oil

Natural gasHydrous Alcohol

Gasoline C

Project Description - Use of B10 in a company fleet in Rio de Janeiro City

•Biodiesel is produced in the same city and it will be obtained through the ethanol route and soybean as the main feedstock.

•The produced biodiesel will be blended at the bus garage.

•The plant will have a production capacity of 1000 liters per day

•The energy needed to run this plant comes from the electric grid ( hydroelectricity)

•The soybean oil will be purchased directly from Brazilian producers in Rio de Janeiro market

•50km-length bus line/buses running 4500 km daily and consuming an average of 2000 liters of diesel

GHG baseline and additionality

• Project boundary: biodiesel production/ transport of biodiesel to service station/biodiesel use in buses.

• Baseline CO2 emission ScenarioYear CO2(kg/ano)

Emissions Ano CO2(kg/ano)

Emissions 2001 1,729,200 2006 2,103,840 2002 1,798,370 2007 2,187,990 2003 1,870,300 2008 2,275,510 2004 1,945,110 2009 2,366,530 2005 2,022,920 2010 2,461,190

Project C02 Emission Scenario

Ano CO2Avoided Emissions

Ano CO2Avoided Emissions

2001 17,292 2006 21,038 2002 17,984 2007 21,879 2003 18,703 2008 22,755 2004 19,451 2009 23,665 2005 20,229 2010 24,612

Results• A total of 188,157 kg of CO2 could be avoided in a 10

year period.

• However other gases emissions should be calculated, especially those related to land use change.

• Emissions outside boundaries are difficult to be predicted

• If vehicle efficiency changes during the period, the calculations result will change

• Relative price of biodiesel and petro-diesel behaviour is very uncertain.

• There are some difficulties regarding monitoring system ( data, actual fuel consumption,by-products)

• Since there are different agents in the process, it is important to assure that double counting will not occur

Energy Efficiency

• Fuel economy standards have been universally effective in raising new vehicle fuel economy and reducing fuel use and carbon emissions

• One of the strategies to achieve fuel economy potential is through a light vehicle labelling system.

• Information plays an important role in the market. Accurate information about energy efficiency from light vehicles do influence the consumer choice in favor of those vehicles which demand less fuel, therefore, leading to less CO2 emission.

Project Description – Labelling Program for the Brazilian Light Duty Vehicles - São Paulo city fleet

evaluation• São Paulo fleet: 3.6 million light vehicles

• Fuel consumption:1.3 million tonnes of gasoline

Gasoline Fleet and gasoline consumption in 2000 – 2004 in São Paulo São Paulo City

YEAR Gasoline Light Vehicles Gasoline Consumtion [liters] 2000 2.425.884 2.491.400.233 2001 2.603.553 2.533.174.605 2002 2.736.045 2.419.711.060 2003 2.850.788 2.171.796.319 2004 2.925.908 2.114.270.891

Additionality

CO2 reduction potential in case of implementing a labeling program in the year of 2000 in São Paulo City CO2 Reduction Potential - São Paulo City

YEAR Gasoline Consumption [liters]

CO2 Emissions

[tonnes] 2000 12,893,276 28,628 2001 25,137,911 55,599 2002 31,885,443 70,523 2003 33,882,140 74,940 2004 36,914,685 81,647 Total 140,713,456 311,338

Results

• CO2 potential reduction in case of implementing light vehicle labelling program in the year 2000 in São Paulo city was 311,338 tonnes. Other gases emission could also be avoided with enormous benefits concerning air quality.

• One of the main difficulties faced by a project like this is related to emissions measurements. Emissions occur in relation to a certain fuel consumption which varies not only with the technological improvement but also according to how efficiently the driver uses the vehcile, the traffic flow, the amount of kilometers driven and so on...

• Therefore it is also difficult to establish a monitoring system.

Final Comments

• With respect to CDM opportunities in the transport sector, Brazil presents a great option in the biodiesel use with enormous dividend benefits and also regarding vehicle fuel efficiency due to its huge fleet with an increasing growth rate.