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Clearing California Skies for 50 Years OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL GHG REDUCTIONS FROM PETROLEUM TRANSPORTATION FUELS AUGUST 20, 2018 1 CALIFORNIA AIR RES , OURCES BOARD
Clearing California Skies for 50 Years
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL GHG REDUCTIONS FROM PETROLEUM TRANSPORTATION FUELS AUGUST 20, 2018
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CALIFORNIA AIR RES ,OURCES BOARD
WELCOME AND OPENING REMARKS
All workshop materials and webcast link:
https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/meetings/meetings.htm
Email address for questions:
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WORKSHOP OUTLINE
Introduction
2017 Scoping Plan Update: 45 Percent Reduction in Petroleum Demand by 2030
California Agency Presentations
Lunch Break
Technical Panels
Public Comment
Next Steps 3
WORKSHOP BACKGROUND
The 2016 GHG Emissions Inventory California 2016 GHG emissions are below the 2020 GHG target
Transportation sector emissions increased 2 percent from 2015 to 2016
Scoping Plan Resolution 17-46 Evaluate and explore opportunities to achieve significant cuts in GHG emissions from all sources,
including supply-side opportunities to reduce production of energy sources
Update CARB Board by December 31, 2018
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CALIFORNIA’S GHG REDUCTION TARGETS
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Emissions to be 600 ~--------------=-'--=-=-="-=-'--=---'-=--='-=----------------_...... a,
N 0 ~ 400 --:E :E ....... C)
~ 200 ---
c -0 I-
Reduced by 2020 Additional / Reductions by 2030
2030
Additional Reductions by 2050
2050 Goal
0 ------'------------.------------~------------.--------'---....__-----,
1990 2020 2030 2050 Note: MMT= Million Metric Tons
550 17
16500
2020 Target
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tonn
es C
O2e
per
per
son
mill
ion
tonn
es C
O2e
450
400
350
300
250
14
13
12
11
10
9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
GHG Inventory Per Capita GHG
PROGRESS TO DATE REDUCING GHGS
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-"'-------------------~
T T T T T T T
Gross Domestic Product and Carbon Intensity of California's Economy 2.5 600
trill
ion
dolla
rs (2
009
$)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
tonn
es C
O2e
per
mill
ion
$ G
DP
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CALIFORNIA’S ECONOMY IS GROWING AND WILL CONTINUE TO GROW
7 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T
Recycling and High GWP Waste 5%
2%Agriculture 8%
Commercial and Residential
9%
Electricity Generation
Imports 6%
Transportation 39%
Industrial 21%
Electricity Generation
In-State 10%
GHG EMISSIONS SOURCES BY SECTOR
Natural & working lands are not included in the scope of the statewide limit
~898 MMT carbon in “live stocks” – forests, grasses, scrub
2016 Total CA Emissions: 429.4 MMTCO2e https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm * GWP= Global Warming Potential
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CLIMATE CHANGE SCOPING PLAN Comprehensive strategy to meet California’s 2030 GHG target
Approved by CARB in December 2017
Suite of complementary measures builds on past success
Mobile Source Strategy - help State achieve its federal and state air quality standards
Sustainable Freight Action Plan
SB 375 – support sustainable community development
Enhanced Low Carbon Fuel Standard
SB 350 - increase renewable energy and energy efficiency
SB 1383 - Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Plan
Post-2020 Cap-and-Trade Program
All policies interact with the transportation sector 9
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Successful implementation of the Scoping Plan is estimated to reduce on-road fuel demand by 45% by 2030
GHG emissions for sector reduced by ~30% in 2030 from 1990 levels
2017 Scoping Plan cumulative reductions (2021-2030) needed to achieve the 2030 target
1/3 of total reductions estimated to come from transportation sector
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800
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0 u 600
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500
Cf)
c:: 400 0 Cf) Cf)
E 300
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C) 200 I C)
100
0 Scoping Plan
236 Cap-and-Trade Program
217 Short Lived Climate Pol lutants High Global Warm ing Gases & Methane Reduct ion from LCFS and Direct Mea::ure:;
64 Mobile Sources CFT & Freight
64 Energy Efficiency (Res, Com, Ind Ag & TCU)
Biofuels (18% LCFS) 50% RPS
SCOPING PLAN: 2030 MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS Relative to Reference scenario in 2030
California GDP: $3.4 trillion
Employment 23,500,000
Personal Income: $3.0 trillion
The average growth rate of State GDP, employment, and personal income are essentially unchanged relative to the Reference scenario
Considers interactive impacts of savings and costs of suite of policies
Uses maximum potential price in the Cap-and-Trade Program of $84.46 real $2018*
Percentage Change in 2030
California GDP (Billion real $2018) -0.3% to -0.6%
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
-0.2% to -0.3%
Personal Income (Billion real $2018) -0.1%
*Upper bound is the current highest Reserve price, presenting in real dollars allows for comparisons across years without the effects of inflation
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Current Transportation Programs for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions
1 CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD
Achieving Reductions in Petroleum Demand and Transitioning to Sustainable Transportation System
• Promote vibrant communities and landscapes • Build on the State’s successful regulatory and
incentive-based policies • Ensure that emerging automated and connected
vehicle technologies reduce emissions • Improve freight and goods movement efficiency and
sustainability • Connect California’s communities with a state-of-the-
art high-speed rail system
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Technology and markets have outpaced expectations CUMULATIVE CALIFORNIA ZEV SALES PROJECTIONS
PROJECTIONS 3.5 M
3M
2.5 M
2M
1.5 M
1 M
500,000 Historical Data
0 ---1._~~:.....,_I ______ _____..... ______ ~......----T-
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Navigant Research
Bloomberg ew Energy Finance
Edison Electric Institute U.S. Ene rgy Information Administration
Minimum Compliance Scenario
California is home to
~50% OF THE ZEVs
IN THE U.S.
I 40% OF NORTH AMERICAN
CLEA IFUEL INVESTMENTS
----&----9 00/ OF TOTAL U.S. INVESTMENT IN
/Q, CLEAN TRANSPORTATIION
Vehicles: Rules: Advanced Clean Cars Regulations
Incentives: Clean Vehicle Rebate Program
Efficient Safe Access: 375: Sustainable Community Strategies
$$ transit, active trans., affordable housing
Fuels: Rules: Low Carbon Fuels Standard
Incentives: Infrastructure funding, planning 15
Major State Policies for LDV Emission Reductions
Sustainable Community -
Light Duty Vehicle Regulatory Programs
Advanced Clean Cars (2017 – 2025) • LEV III GHG Vehicle Fleet Standards • ZEV Regulation • LEV III Criteria Emission Fleet Ave Standards
Advanced Clean Cars 2 • Working on 2026+ model year standards for
further emission reductions and ZEVs • Tentative 2020 Rulemaking for 2026 and beyond
model years 16
Low Carbon Transportation Program Investments
• CVRP: Consumer rebates for ZEVs, higher rebates for low-income consumers
• Transportation Equity Projects to Increase Access: Car scrap and replace, financing assistance, and car sharing/mobility options
• HVIP: Clean truck and bus vouchers for hybrid, zero-emission, low NOx, technologies
• Freight projects: demonstrations and early commercial pilots for clean engines and facilities
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Cap and Trade Dollars at Work
ZEV Fueling Infrastructure Today and in 2025
EV Chargers • Current Programs: • Today: Over 15,000 public EV chargers • Today: 35 retail-open hydrogen stations • By 2025, expect programs project 104,000
EV chargers and 100 H2 stations
• But we need more to support 1.5 million ZEVs + PHEVs on the road: • 250,000 EV chargers • 200 hydrogen stations
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• <>Embed C • • • t. Over 15,800 EVSE
• connectors in Cal ifornia
• (to date), a 12% increase
• • • since the MTR Report release
• j
•
EV Fleet Directive from Governor Brown
Explore new regulatory actions to accelerate zero emission vehicles in public and private light- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets
• Consider opportunities in a broad range of fleet categories: • Public and private • New mobility fleets • Large employer fleets • Rental fleets • Freight service fleets (Last mile delivery)
• Public workshop August 30
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Sustainable Freight Strategy
• Vision and Guiding Principles • 2030 Statewide Freight Targets
• Increase efficiency by 25% • Over 100,000 zero emission vehicles and equipment • Establish a target for increased State competitiveness /
economic growth
• Freight Funding Approach • State Agency Actions and Implementation Steps • Pilot Project Concepts
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Proposed Zero-Emission Heavy Duty Vehicle Regulations
• Zero-Emission Transit Buses
Innovative Clean Transit – 2018
• Last Mile Delivery and Local Trucks
Advanced Clean Trucks – 2018
• Zero-Emission Airport Ground Transportation
Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Buses – 2018
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Advanced Technology Demonstration and Freight Facility Projects
• Over $80 million to deploy 146 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles
Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Pilot Commercial Deployment Project
• Over 4,500 vouchers issued and $300 million invested
Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP)
Path
to C
omm
erci
aliza
tion
• Zero-Emission Drayage Truck Demonstration Project • $25 million to demonstrate pre-commercial drayage truck technologies
• Multi-Source Facility Demonstration Project • $25 million for large scale demonstrations at multi-source facility locations
• Zero- and Near Zero-Emission Freight Facilities • $150 million to be awarded later in 2018
CARB’s Suite of Low Carbon Transportation Projects
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Strategic Investments for Sustainable Transportation
• Expand low carbon transit opportunities • Promote active transportation • Identify and leverage key early markets • Transfer technology to other applications • Each succeeding market builds greater volume
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LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARD (LCFS)
State’s primary program to promote clean alternative fuel use
Original adoption in 2009, first compliance year in 2011, re-adopted in 2015
Goal: Reduce carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels
Expected benefits: Reduce greenhouse gases
Transform and diversify fuel pool
Reduce petroleum dependency
Reduce emissions of criteria pollutants and toxics
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KEY LCFS REQUIREMENTS AND FEATURES
Sets annual carbon intensity (CI) standards for transportation fuels (e.g., gasoline, diesel and the fuels that replace them)
CI based on complete lifecycle analysis
Providers in California of petroleum fuels are “regulated parties” under the LCFS
Providers of clean fuels can “opt in” to program and earn credits
Generated credits can be bought and sold by regulated parties
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LCFS SUMMARY
LCFS is on schedule, having achieved a 3.5% reduction in average CI so far
Low carbon diesel substitutes made up over 15% of the energy used in heavy duty vehicles in California in 2017
Over-compliance with the program (nearly 10 million excess credits banked)
Proposed LCFS targets through 2030 ambitious but achievable, necessary to achieve the SB 32 goal Proposed 20% reduction in CI by 2030
ARB’s understanding of the low carbon fuel market is strong
Existing low carbon fuel supply is available in the near term but expansion of advanced low carbon fuel production capacity will be needed in the future
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TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS IN THE CAP-AND-TRADE PROGRAM
Transportation fuels are covered under the Program
Tailpipe: Includes gasoline, diesel, propane, and natural gas
Includes imported fuels
In-State Processing: Process and combustion emissions at refineries
In-State Extraction: Process and combustion emissions in oil and gas sector in state
Regulated entities must reduce onsite emissions, supply lower carbon fuels, and/or purchase compliance instruments for GHG emissions
The Cap-and-Trade Program creates incentives to invest in cleaner fuels and use energy more efficiently
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OIL & GAS REGULATION
The regulation reduces in-state fugitive and vented emissions of methane upstream of transportation fuel production, from both existing and new oil and gas facilities.
The covered facilities include: • Oil and Gas Production, Processing, and Storage
• Natural Gas Gathering and Boosting Stations
• Natural Gas Underground Storage
• Natural Gas Transmission Compressor Stations
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OIL & GAS REGULATION
∗ Estimated continuing reductions of more than 1.4 million MT of CO2 equivalent per year, using a 20 year Global Warming Potential for methane.
∗ This represents a methane reduction from this sector of over 40% by 2021.
∗ Co-benefits - reductions of toxic andVOC emissions.
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THANK YOU
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