OZONE TRANSPORT COMMISSION

Ali Mirzakhalili, P.E.Stationary and Area Source Committee

Update

OTC Annual Meeting

June 3, 2016

Hotel Palomar

Philadelphia, PA

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Overview

• Review of Stationary Source Committee Charge

• Status of Committee’s Deliverables

for 2016 Annual Meeting

Committee Charge

• Largest NOX and VOC Contributor Analysis

• High Electricity Demand and Emergency Generator Information

• Reasonably Available Control Technology for NOXand VOC

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Identify potential emission reduction strategies to consider at the 2016 Fall Meeting, through:

Status of Committee’s Deliverables

1. ICI Boiler Whitepaper - Published Final Draft*

2. Energy Sector - continued analysis of:

A. Top 25 NOx emittersB. EGU utilization by fuel typeC. HEDD

• Back-up Generators (BUGs) • Smaller EGUs (

ICI Boiler Workgroup Update

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NE, MW, & SE CONUS

2011 6-7% 5%

2018 9-10% 7%

2007 - 2011 NE + VA

NOx i 22%

SO2 i 40%

NE SE

i 5% i 11%

Finalized White Paper after Stakeholder feedback period last Fall

Conclusions from the White Paper:

• NOx and SO2 decrease:

• Modest NOX decreases expected between 2011 - 2018:

• Percentage of annual ICI boiler NOX emissions compared to all sectors:

Potential Next Step: Evaluation of existing state limits, and whether new limits are warranted

Top 25 NOX Emitters – 2015 Ozone Season

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State Facility Name Facility - Unit IDNOx

(tons)Avg. NOx Rate (lb/MMBtu)

SCR?Best Observed Rate

(lb/MMBtu)Year

IN Rockport 6166 - MB1 3,976 0.208

IN Rockport 6166 - MB2 3,677 0.207

LA Ninemile Point 1403 – 5 3,008 0.319

WV Harrison Power Station 3944 – 3 2,965 0.342 Y 0.066 2005

AR White Bluff 6009 – 1 2,898 0.276

WV Harrison Power Station 3944 – 2 2,855 0.364 Y 0.066 2005

LA Ninemile Point 1403 – 4 2,717 0.343

PA Homer City 3122 – 1 2,624 0.351 Y 0.067 2006

OH Avon Lake Power Plant 2836 – 12 2,617 0.396

NC Marshall 2727 – 4 2,460 0.272

PA Bruce Mansfield 6094 – 1 2,409 0.242 Y 0.076 2004

AR White Bluff 6009 – 2 2,398 0.286

PA Conemaugh* 3118 – 1 2,353 0.227 Y - -

PA Montour, LLC 3149 – 1 2,246 0.309 Y 0.044 2003

PA Montour, LLC 3149 – 2 2,203 0.336 Y 0.047 2003

PA Keystone 3136 – 1 2,198 0.232 Y 0.042 2003

WV Harrison Power Station 3944 – 1 2,155 0.318 Y 0.063 2005

PA Homer City 3122 – 3 2,131 0.282 Y 0.087 2005

PA Brunner Island, LLC 3140 – 3 2,111 0.325

PA Conemaugh* 3118 – 2 2,012 0.200 Y - -

WV Mountaineer (1301) 6264 – 1 1,979 0.108 Y 0.039 2007

AR Flint Creek Power Plant 6138 – 1 1,970 0.264

IN IPL - Petersburg Generating Station 994 – 4 1,946 0.264

PA Keystone 3136 – 2 1,907 0.243 Y 0.043 2008

AR Independence 6641 - 1 1,771 0.239

*Conemaugh installed SCR in 2014; not enough data to determine Best Observed Rate.

Many Units with SCR Operating above the Best Observed Rate

CSAPR Allowance Prices (4/17/15 - 4/29/16)

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Note: S&L High Operating Cost Estimate = $1,755 - $ 2,118/ston

Cheaper to Buy Allowances than to Run Controls!

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Annual NOx Ozone Season NOxS & L Low NOx Operating Cost Estimate Annual NOx + Ozone Season NOX

Allowance Price Data Source: Argus Air Daily, Control cost estimates calculated using Sargent and Lundy method

Note: S&L High NOx Operating Cost Estimate = $1,755 - $ 2,118/ston

Utilization of EGUs Based on Fuel Type

Analysis of the Utilization of Coal-Fired EGU Resources:

Last decade significant shift in the makeup of the EGU fleet operating in PJM states that have been primarily served by coal-fired units.

Some contributing factors:

• Long term effects of deregulation

• Various environmental programs and initiatives

• Renewables requirements

• Utilization of demand response resources

• Improved availability of relatively low cost natural gas

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# of EGUs Operating Annually in MD-OH-PA-VA-WV

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MD-OH-PA-VA-WV During PJM Demand Response Events

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High Electricity Demand Days (HEDD)

On HEDD more electricity generation than usual is required for reliability

• More generation more emissions

• Typical HEDDs are hot, humid days that are

already conducive to high ozone

• Therefore the higher emissions occur at the

same time as ozone conducive weather

Some emissions are not reflected properly

in OTC Modeling and needed improvement

• Back-up Generators (BUGs)

• Smaller EGUs not in CAMD (

Emissions Estimates for BUGs

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Region Low Bound High Bound

ISO-NE 8 32

NY-ISO 7 30

PJM 7 29

NOX Emissions in Tons/Day (or Tons/“Event”)

Small EGU Units (

Small EGUs Current Status

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Completed :• Selected universe of small EGU units• Held state comment period to refine list of units• Completed 2-week July CMAQ model runs using new temporal profiles

Next Steps:• Requested additional state comments• Incorporate temporal profiles into Beta modeling platform

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1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 5/1/2011 6/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 10/1/2011 11/1/2011 12/1/2011

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SMOKE Default Temporal Profile MDE Temporal Profile- MANEVU Gas MD Gas Small EGUs- 2011 Operational Data

Compare Modeled Temporal Profiles to 2011 Operating Profile MD Gas-Fired Small EGUs

Ozone Impact of Not Running Existing Controls Lost Benefit of 413 Tons/Day

Ozone-Season NOx (Tons)

Reference 175,700

3A 112,400

Difference 63,300

Scenario 3A - 2018 Base: Ozone Season Benefit

HEDD Example: Ozone Impact on July 21, 2011

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Difference in Daily Maximum 8-hour Ozone

2011 Base w/ BUGs minus 2011 Base 2011 Base w/ Small EGU minus 2011 Base

In some areas on HEDDs:• BUGs can have an impact of up to 1 ppb • Small EGU units (

CSAPR Updates

OTC EPA:• Final rule must be published by June 2016• Fulfill CAA statutory mandate on Good Neighbor

obligations• Ensure emissions reduction benefits by 2017

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July December2015

DC Circuit:• 2014 O3-season NOX budgets for FL, MD, NJ, NY, NC,

OH, PA, SC, TX, VA, and WV invalid• Remanded to EPA without vacatur for

reconsideration

EPA: • CSAPR update for 2008

O3 NAAQS

EPA: ???2016February June

Consumer Products/AIM Update

Goal: Establish framework for a voluntary program which earns SIP credit while working with states, EPA, and industry

• National rule preferred, but EPA action is stagnant

• State by state rule adoption resource intensive and not uniform

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ID Stakeholders & Participants; Organizational Call

Meet stakeholders in OTC meeting

Develop outline for OTC Meeting

August September November

2015

Develop Steering Committees

Present framework to stakeholders in OTC meeting

Present Framework to Commission

June September November

2016 - Planned

RACT Compendium

• Compiling and evaluating each state’s NOX and VOC limits for source categories

• Reviewing CTGs

• States are in the process of providing information on their RACT SIPs for the compendium

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2009

OTC, LADCO EPA: replacement rule for CAIR

OTC EPA: RACT Statement of Principles

New NAAQS for O3 = 70 ppb

RACT SIP to EPA due

new RACT requirements take effect

2013 2014OTC EPA: New RACT for 2008 O3 NAAQS

2015 2019 2022

Vapor Recovery

• MD has proposed and DE has approved regulations for Stage II programs

• Continue to improve Stage I

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Questions?

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