Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Short-term Economic Indicators
Overview Business Cycle Indicators (BCI)
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia 2
•First Day
• Overview of BCI
• Malaysia BCI
•Time series Decomposition
• Seasonal Adjustment
• Second Day
• Indicators selection
• The Composite Index
• The Diffusion Index
Outline
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia 3
•The 42 Statistical Commission Meeting has
recommended programme of work on short-term
economic statistics:
•Programme of work on
• rapid estimates
• business cycle composite indicators
• tendency surveys
•data template and analytical indicators
Introduction
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Two keys deliverable on business cycle composite indicators
1
• Inventory of country practices on business cycle composite indicators through a global assessment
2
• Handbook on business cycle composite indicators
Introduction
4
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Why country should we have business cycle
indicators?
•Business cycles are recurrent and it provides
significant impact on the medium/long term national
policies/agenda
•Precautionary measures to minimised the impacts
Introduction
5
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
•What is your country practices in determining the date of
economic recession or economic recovery?
Introduction
6
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Source: NBER Source: ECRI Source: MEI
USA
Mar 01 – Nov 01
Jul 90 – Mar 91
Jul 81 - Nov 82
Dec 07 – June 09
JAPAN
Aug 00 – Apr 03
Mar 97 – Jul 99
Apr 92 – Feb 94
Feb 08 – Mar 09
MALAYSIA
Mar 02 – Feb 03
Jan 98 – Nov 98
Jan 85 – Feb 86
Mar 08 – Dec 09
Jul 94 – Feb 75
Business Cycle recession dates for USA, Japan and Malaysia
Introduction
7
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
Economic Recession/
Crisis
LabourMarket
Financial Market/
Prices
Poverty/ Income
DistributionGDP/GNI
External Market/
BOP
8
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Sources of Malaysia’s Economic Recessions
Sources/ Event
World Energy Crisis
Global Economic
Recession
Asian Financial
Crises
Global Economic
Slowdown
Reference Dates
Jan 85 to Feb 86
Jan 98 to Nov 98
Mar 02 Feb Mar 03
July 74 to Feb 75
Per capita GNI/
Real GDP
• 1975 (-0.3%)
• 1975 (0.8%)
• 1985 (-4.2%)
• 1985 (-1.0%)
• 1998 (-7.6%)
• 1998 (-7.4%)
• 2001 (-1.0%)
• 2001 (-1.0%)
US Debt crisis/Euro
Zone CrisesMar 08 to Dec 09
• 2009 (-0.7%)
• 2009 (-1.6%)
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
9
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Economic Recessions and GDP growth
Asian Financial Crises US Debt crisis/Euro Zone
Crises
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
10
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Sources/ Event
Global Economic
Recession
Asian Financial
Crises
Global Economic Slowdown
US Debt crisis/Euro Zone Crises
Reference Dates
Jan 85 to Feb 86
Jan 98 to Nov 98
Mar 02 Feb Mar 03
Mar 08 to Dec 09
Unemployment Rate
(% of Labour Force)
• 1985 (5.6%)
• 1986 (7.4%)
• 1998 (3.2%)
• 1999 (3.4%)
• 2002 (3.5%)• 2003 (3.6%)
• 2009 (3.3%)• 2010 (3.7%)
Effect to Labour Markets
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
11
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Effect to Financial Markets
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Bursa Malaysia Monthly Industrial Index, Closing(1970 = 100)
Global Economic Recession
Asian Financial Crises
US Debt crisis/Euro Zone Crises
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
12
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Effect to External Markets
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports (f.o.b) MalaysiaRM Million
US Debt crisis/Euro Zone Crises
Global Economic
Slowdown
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
13
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Effect to Income Distribution: Malaysia Gini Coefficients
The Gini coefficient (G) is a
measure of income
concentration derived from
the Lorenz Curve.
The value of the Gini
coefficient ranges from 0 to
1 where 0 denotes complete
equality of income share
and 1 represents total
inequality of income share.
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
14
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Malaysia Mean Monthly Gross Household Income
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
15
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
Malaysia Incidence of Poverty
The calculation of poverty rates involves all households having monthly gross income
below Poverty Line Income (PLI).
The calculation of the Incidence of Poverty (IP):
2. Impact of Economic Recession: Malaysia Experiences
16
Training Course on Short -term Business Statistics,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 5-7 Nov 2012Abd Latib Talib – Department of Statistics Malaysia
THANK YOU
Abd Latib Talib
Economic Indicators Division
Department of Statistics Malaysia
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