Overview of

Databases(TRAINS, IDB, CTS,COMTRADE)

operated by

UNCTAD-World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)

Overview of

Databases(TRAINS, IDB, CTS,COMTRADE)

operated by

UNCTAD-World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)

Lucian CernatInternational Trade Division

WITS vs Databases

WITS is a software which is designed to integrate several trade-related databases and provide easy access

Four major databases are currently accessible through WITS

Databases of WITS

• TRAINS (UNCTAD)

• COMTRADE (UN Statistics Division)

• Integrated Database (IDB-WTO)

• Consolidated Tariff Schedule (CTS-WTO)

Data Accessibility

• COMTRADE: Free access to International Organizations, others against a fee

• TRAINS: Access to governments and international and regional organizations, as well as to donors to TRAINS Trust Fund

• WTO: Access to WTO member governments and selected international organizations

Data contents of TRAINS (as of 1 April 2007)

Data contents of TRAINS (as of 1 April 2007)

• Tariff measures at national tariff line level for 161 countries (956 country/years since 1988), including preferential rates such as RTA and GSP in many cases

Primary data are drawn from

UN TARMACUN Tariff and Market Access Database

A joint effort with the International Trade Centre (ITC)

Data contents of TRAINS (continued)Data contents of TRAINS (continued)

• Import statistics by origin at Harmonized System (HS) 6-digit level for every country-year by constructing mirror imports where necessary

• Non-Tariff Measures classified according to UNCTAD Coding System of Trade Control Measures (97 countries, 150 country/years)

WITS Functionality

• Data retrieval and analysis

• Quick query• Advanced query• Tariff Change Simulations• Other options

Quick Query

Direct access to the Database

–By country and/or by product–Export raw data–Extraction by criteria

Advanced Query

Users construct queries comprising of:

– Reporter countries – Products – Partner countries – Years

Custom Query – Parameters

Reporter Countries– Individual countries or user-

defined groups of countriesProducts– Individual products or user-

defined aggregates of products in various product classifications (HS, SITC,ISIC, etc)

Custom Query – Parameters

Partner Countries– Same as Reporter Countries.

“World” is treated as an individual country

Years – From 1988

Custom Query – submission

Further options before submitting

• MFN rates (default) , Bound Rates and/or Effectively Applied (preferential) rates

• Latest available year for each reporter country

• Substitution of unavailable year with the nearest available year

• Breakdown of country groups

Custom Query – results

Main indicators•Simple and trade weighted tariff averages

•Value of imports–Duty free–Dutiable–Non-ad valorem rates

•Distribution of tariff rates

TRADE : ADVANCED QUERIES• The Advanced Query is a more complex but more powerful

and flexible tool for sophisticated queries :– Can retrieve trade for several years, partners and products with a

single query;

– Can retrieve aggregated trade for groups of countries or products;

• The process goes through two steps :– The user defines, saves and submits his query

– The server runs the query and notifies when results are ready.

Once the Data Source has been selected, a set of folders appears on the top left side of the Query Definition window.Those folders may vary depending on the chosen data source.

Click on the Reporters folder. A selection box appears on the right.

Selecting Reporters

Now, click on the Products folder. The product selection panel appears.Advanced Query offers many possibilities for selecting Products.To get results, you have to use nomenclatures available for the selected reporter(s).

Selecting Partners

Now, click on the Partner Countries folder. The selection panel appears. It is the same as the one we’ve seen for selecting Reporters.

• Question:

– Investigate the existence of tariff peaks and tariff escalation in country group A (USA, Canada, EU and Japan) on silk products originating in developing countries

• Steps:

– Create country aggregates (group A, developing countries)– Create product aggregates (raw, semi finished, finished silk)

Go to WITS Tariff peaks Tariff escalation

Hypothetical Example: Tariff peaks and escalation

Dom

estic

pea

ks

Inte

rnat

iona

l pea

ks

Dom

estic

pea

ks

Inte

rnat

iona

l pea

ks

Dom

estic

pea

ks

Inte

rnat

iona

l pea

ks

Dom

estic

pea

ks

Inte

rnat

iona

l pea

ks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Nu

mb

er o

f ta

riff

pea

ks

Raw

Yarn

Woven

Finished

Incidence of Tariff Peaks

1996

2000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Raw silk - PrefRaw silk - MFNSilk Yarn - PrefSilk yarn - MFNWoven silk - PrefWoven silk - MFNFinished Silk - PrefFinished Silk - MFN

Raw silk Silk yarnWoven

silk

Finished silk

Silk Escalation (Weighted Average Tariffs)

• Part I : Trade statistics– Data extraction tools– Example: tariff peaks and escalation

•Part II: Trade liberalization simulations

– The model: assumptions, parameters, results– Example

Contents

Tariff Change Simulation(Single market simulation model)

- Trade Creation and Diversion effects- Tariff revenue effect- Welfare effect- Importer and Exporter Views

Assumptions:

– Each product is independent– A same product from different supplier is

an imperfect substitute– Three sets of elasticties (Demand,

Supply and Substitution between two suppliers)

Tariff Change Simulation(Single market simulation model)

Tariff Change Simulation

Results of Simulation - First round effect of tariff reduction- No time horizon - No cost of structural adjustment

Assumptions

– Changes in the demand for imports, as a result of tariff changes

– Changes in relative prices among exporters and a change in market shares

– Changes in the export supply as a result of tariff/price changes

Parameters– Import demand elasticities – literature review– Export supply elasticities – infinite, but this can be changed– Elasticities of substitution - Armington

For a detailed description of the SMART model:

Laird and Yeats (1986), Karsenty and Vossenaar (1989)

Main Assumptions and Parameters

• Trade creation (TC)– Increased exports as a results of changes in demand and prices

• Trade diversion (TD)– Substitution of goods from different exporters(changes in

market shares), due to changes in relative prices• Total trade effect = TC + TD• Other effects

– Tariff revenue changes, welfare effects, consumer surplus, price effects (if any)

Go to WITS

Main Results

• Changes in bound tariffs take effect only when the new bound rate is lower than the old applied rate

• Tariff cutting options• Maximum rate• Linear cut• Swiss formula• Canadian formula• User-defined formula

Simulations

• Modified Swiss formula (Francois and Martin)

• A band approach to maximum rate or linear cut

• An SDT approach

• A sectoral approach

Other options

New rate = (old rate x p)/(old rate + p)

Swiss formula (p=16)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Old Rate (%)

Ne

w R

ate

(%

)

Swiss Formula

if (r0<=5) Then r1=0

if (r0>100) then r1=100

if (r0>5 and r0<100) Then r1 = (r0*25)/(r0+25)

User defined modalities

• Example: 20% MFN bound tariff reduction in the US

• Total trade effect: market share analysis

Economist Toolkit Example

Market share analysis

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Alb

ania

Antig

ua a

nd B

arb

uda

Austr

alia

Bahra

inB

ela

rus

Benin

Boliv

iaB

razil

Bru

nei

Buru

ndi

Canada

Centr

al A

fric

an

Christm

as Isla

nd

Cook Isla

nds

Cro

atia

Denm

ark

Ecuador

Eritr

ea

Faero

e Isla

nds

Fra

nce

Georg

iaG

ibra

ltar

Guin

ea

Hondura

sIn

dia

Isra

el

Japan

Kenya

Latv

iaLib

eria

Macao

Mala

ysia

Malta

Mexic

oM

onts

err

at

Myanm

ar

Neth

erlands

New

Zeala

nd

Nig

eria

Om

an

Papua N

ew

Guin

ea

Philippin

es

Qata

rR

wanda

Saudi A

rabia

Sie

rra L

eone

Slo

venia

South

Afr

ica

St. K

itts a

nd N

evis

Sudan

Sw

eden

Taiw

an

Thaila

nd

Tonga

Turk

ey

Uganda

Unite

d K

ingdom

Venezuela

Zim

babw

e

Nu

mb

er

of

HS

-6 l

ines

market share erosion market share expansion

Exporter Analysis

Positive trade effects, by product and number of countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

010120

080300

160590

240399

283190

290329

291250

292144

320417

370242

390450

392119

420211

480540

510610

520841

540110

550520

551591

580134

610312

611511

620811

630533

681250

701951

721070

722592

731589

741819

810419

840120

844340

846510

850152

851822

854330

871680

902990

940390

HS-6 code

Co

un

trie

s

Product Analysis

Doha Proposals in WITS

• WTO Doha Proposals” simulates the tariff reduction proposals submitted to the WTO’s Negotiating Group on Market Access.

More flexible, user-defined tariff change formula option is under development

Improvement for immediate future

• Multi-market Simulation Model– Incorporation of GSIM model in

WITS/TRAINS

Computer Requirement

– PC of reasonable speed (minimum 200MHZ)

– Windows 98, 2000 or XP – Internet Explorer version 5.0 or higher– Internet Access with 50mb of disk space

How to Install WITSRegister at http://wits.worldbank.org/witsweb

Receive userid and password via e-mail

Download installation file from

http://wits.worldbank.org/install.htm

Install

CONTACT

Trade Information Section

UNCTAD/DITC/TAB

Palais des Nations

1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland

E-mail: wits@unctad-trains.org

Fax: +41 22 917 0044