Overview of Energy Life Cycle Analysis at NETLTim Skone, Joe Marriott, James LittlefieldLCA XVI, Charleston, SC

September 27, 2016

2

• Journal Publications (inc. Pending)• Boundary selection in NG systems• Coal exports from the U.S.• Petroleum baseline update• Methane emission synthesis• Low-carbon fuels from EOR

• Major Reports & Tools• Update to Natural Gas LCA• Baseline Power Updates• Solid-oxide fuel-cell Power LCA• Update to Grid Mix Explorer & Upstream Dashboard

• Ongoing Work• Support for EPA GHGI of NG Systems• Support for Federal LCA Commons• Support for DOE Loan Program Office

• Emerging Work• Development of an Electricity Baseline for the U.S.• Implementation of Consequential LCA for Energy Systems• Development of Social LCIA Metrics & MCDM frameworks• Creation of Power System Construction Inventories

2016 LCA Work

Work can be accessed at:www.netl.doe.gov/lca

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• Emphasizes the importance of boundary selection when expressing CH₄ emission rates and comparing NG to other energy sources

• Includes use of technology warming potential as a method for comparing cumulative radiative forcing

Using Common Boundaries to Assess CH₄ Emissions: a Life Cycle Evaluation of Natural Gas & Coal Power SystemsJames Littlefield, Joe Marriott, Greg Schivley, Tim Skone

LossExtraction — Processing — Transmission — Distribution Rate

Cradle-to-Extraction 4.7 1,086 0.5% 0.43%

Cradle-to-Processing 4.7 + 2.6 1,020 6.6% 0.71%

Cradle-to-Transmission 4.7 + 2.6 + 5.2 1,005 7.9% 1.24%

Cradle-to-Distribution 4.7 + 2.6 + 5.2 + 4.5 1,000 8.4% 1.70%

Processing Only (GtG) 2.6 1,020 6.1% 0.25%

Transmission Only (GtG) 5.2 1,005 1.5% 0.52%

Distribution Only (GtG) 4.5 1,000 0.5% 0.45%

Boundary Upstream Emissions (g CH ) NG ExitingBoundary (g)

EmissionRate

Numerator Denominator

Journal of Industrial Ecology, January 2016, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12394/pdf

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• Background:• Sources: U.S. (PRB), Australia, Indonesia• Destinations: Japan, Korea, Taiwan

• GHG Analysis:• Emissions associated with coal mining activities are much

more significant in Australia and Indonesia than PRB• PRB disadvantages: longer transport distance (mine to

terminal, terminal to plant) and lower heating value

• TRACI 2.1 Analysis:• Global Warming Potential (GWP) is the only impact

category where the coal sources are essentially even• Non-GWP impact categories are driven by emissions from

diesel combustion (transport and mining) and affected by differences in diesel regulations between exporting countries

Understanding the Contribution of Mining & Transportation to the Total Life Cycle Impacts of Coal Exported from the U.S.Michele Mutchek, Greg Cooney, Gavin Pickenpaugh, Joe Marriott, Tim Skone

57.0 55.6

41.6

52.659.3 57.4

40.4

51.2

65.3

55.2

34.643.8

79.5 76.1

58.1

74.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

PRB

AU

ID -

Adar

o

ID -

Mul

ia

PRB

AU

ID -

Adar

o

ID -

Mul

ia

PRB

AU

ID -

Adar

o

ID -

Mul

ia

PRB

Aust

ralia

Indo

nesia

- Ad

aro

Indo

nesia

- M

ulia

Japan Korea Taiwan Japan - Carbon Capture

Gre

enho

use

Gas

Em

issi

ons

AR5

100-

yr G

WP

(kg

CO₂e

/MW

h) -

Ups

trea

m O

nly

Mining Coal Cleaning Truck Transport Rail Transport

Barge Transport Export Terminal Ocean Transport Import Terminal

Energies, July 2016, http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/7/559/pdf

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• Significant changes since 2005 baseline analysis:• Known changes to crude oil mix (source, extraction method, and

quality)• Transition to ultra low sulfur diesel, increasing refinery hydrogen

demand

• Utilize publicly available and peer-reviewed tools to inform the life cycle impacts of extraction and refining (OPGEE and PRELIM)

• Evaluate to understand uncertainty in long-term comparisons of alternative fuels projects to the petroleum baseline

• Potential policy implications (EISA Section 526; RFS2)

Updating the U.S. Life Cycle GHG Petroleum Baseline to 2014 with Projections to 2040 Using Open-Source Engineering-Based ModelsGreg Cooney, Matt Jamieson, Joe Marriott, Joule Bergerson, Adam Brandt, Tim Skone

• U.S. domestic share peaks at 62% in 2016• Tight oil accounts for 50% of U.S. domestic production by 2015• EOR share of production doubles over the forecast period• Canadian imports increase; all other imports drop off

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

U.S

. Cru

de C

onsu

mpt

ion,

(MM

bbl/

day)

Africa Latin America Middle East Canada Other U.S.

1 EIA. (2013). AEO 2014 Interactive Table Viewer. US Department of Energy Retrieved January 2, 2014, from http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/ 2 EIA. (2013). Petroleum & Other Liquids Data. US Department of Energy Retrieved January 2, 2014, from http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm 3 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. (2013). Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Transportation. (2013-0013). Alberta, Canada: CAPP

Revising for Environmental Science & Technology

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Synthesis of recent ground-level CH₄ emission measurements from U.S. natural gas supply chain

Measure Estimate Model Validate

Images are public domain: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Noun_project; commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Icon-notepad.svg;commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NetworkTopology-FullyConnected.png; publicdomainpictures.net/view-image.php?image=72186&picture=balanza-de-la-justicia&large=1

James Littlefield, Joe Marriott, Greg Schivley, Tim Skone

• Challenges- Compilation of new data with legacy data- Extrapolation of geographically-specific data to broader boundaries - Managing skewed emission distributions

• Our overall conclusions about supply chain have not changed, but our understanding of actors within supply chain have changed

Communicate

Submitted to Journal of Cleaner Production

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• An LCA framework allows for in-depth examination of the system where captured CO₂ from fossil power is paired with EOR/ROZ

• Key considerations are the carbon intensity of the power that is displaced by the new plant equipped with carbon capture and the willingness of the crude producer to behave like a sequestration site

EOR for GHG Reduction: Achievable low-carbon fuel targets are dependent on the intersection of CO2 source GHG intensity & crude recovery efficiencyGreg Cooney, Joe Marriott, Matt Jamieson, Sean McCoy, Tim Skone

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

CO₂ I

nten

sity

of U

pstr

eam

CO

₂ (kg

CO

₂e/k

g CO

₂)

Crude Recovery Ratio (bbl/tonne CO₂ sequestered)

Baseline

10% Reduction

25% Reduction

50% Reduction

Net Zero

50 g Sequester100 g Sequester

Natural Dome

SCPC-2014 GridSCPC/30%-2014 Grid

SCPC-Fleet CoalSCPC/30%-Fleet Coal

NGCC-2014 Grid

NGCC-Fleet Coal

Coal-fired power

Gas-fired power

FuelCombustion

Refining

Crude Extraction

Power Plant

Fuel Extraction &

Transport

CO2Transport

FuelTransport

Crude Transport

Displaced Electricity

fuel

fuel

crude

CO2

kWh

coal/gas

CO2

crude

CO2 Intensity of Upstream CO2

Crude Recovery

Ratio

In Preparation

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Natural Gas Modeling UpdatesTechnological & regional variability managed with a stochastic GHG model

12.4

23.0

10.314.5

18.8

24.7

48.6

20.8

29.9 31.21.3%

2.8%

1.1%

1.6%

1.3%1.6% (national)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Shale, Ft. WorthBasin

Tight Gas, RockyMountains

OnshoreConventional, Gulf

Coast

Shale, AppalachianBasin

Tight Gas, GulfCoast

CH₄Emission

Rate(m

ass CH₄ emissions/m

ass delivered NG as percentage)

GHG

Em

issi

ons

(g C

O₂e

/MJ N

G d

eliv

ered

)61

% o

f NG

goes

thro

ugh

dist

ribut

ion

afte

r tra

nsm

issio

n

Total CO₂e (100-yr GWP) Total CO₂e (20-yr GWP) CH₄ emission rate

• 31 “techno-regions” total• Top 5 techno-regions represent

58% of production• 90% confidence intervals represent

wide variability regionally, but this variability is tighter when national average is simulated

2016 version of LCA of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation is available on NETL’s Energy Analysis site:www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis /temp/LifeCycleAnalysisofNaturalGasExtractionandPowerGeneration_083016.pdf

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• NETL has updated power plant baseline studies – the baseline LCA studies have been updated based on the new reports:

• Sub-critical pulverized coal• Supercritical pulverized coal• Natural gas combined cycle• Oxycombusted pulverized coal

• New LCA studies include life cycle impact results

Advanced Fossil Power Baseline LCAs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

SCPC SCPC w/ CCS SCPC w/ EOR

All four reports available soon at: www.netl.doe.gov/lca

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• Fuel cell LCA includes different technologies and feedstocks

• Conventional and catalytic gasifiers• Coal, natural gas, and coal with natural

gas

• TRACI 2.1 impacts + water consumption

• Stochastic cost of electricity results• Normalized environmental results are

shown here

Solid Oxide Fuel Cell LCA

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

Conventional gasifier - CCS Catalytic gasifier - CCSConventional gasifier + NG - CCS Natural gas - CCSNatural gas - No CCS

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• Time Series• Review of 1990-2010 GHG Inventory Data for

top 80% of GHG Emissions (21 largest sources)• Check interpolation assumptions• Look for alternative data sources

• Uncertainty• Subject Matter Experts for ERG Analysis of GHG

Inventory• Provide 90 confidence intervals for inputs• Select distribution type for inputs

EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory - Natural Gas Uncertainty and Time Series Review

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Plan

ts (A

F)

scfy

/pla

nt (E

F)

Pneumatic Devices

Emissions Factors Activity Factors

Example of emissions and activity factors from GHGI time series data between 1990 and 2014

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• The Federal LCA Commons is a collaboration among U.S. federal agencies to combine their LCA inventories and tools into an open access, usable product (lcacommons.gov)

• NETL is working with NREL and USDA to translate NETL’s unit processes into openLCAformat and publish the database on the LCA Federal Commons.

Federal LCA Commons

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• Background:• Applicants must “avoid, reduce, or sequester” GHG emissions

• Advanced Fossil• Renewable Energy and Efficient Energy

• Compares GHG emissions to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario

• Analysis:• Suggest BAU product or technology• Calculate life cycle GHG emissions for the applicant and BAU• Include all products in the comparison

• NETL provided analysis for over a dozen projects in the past year

DOE Loan Program Office GHG Analysishttp://energy.gov/lpo/innovative-clean-energy-projects-title-xvii-loan-program

140

110

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

BAU Advanced Technology

GHG

Emiss

ions

AR-

5 10

0-yr

GW

P(k

g CO

₂e/u

nit)

Sample Comparison

Product A Product B Product C Advanced Technology

21% reduction

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Emerging Work: Power Baseline

• We’ve characterized life cycles of >95% of components of U.S. electricity grid

• Calculating a national value for current year is straightforward

• Key questions:- How does our answer change

with temporal and technology shifts?

- What data and modeling capabilities are required to make a power baseline more useful?

534

691

502

179

1,145

992

266

950

256

914

238 242

121

301

36 21 35 17 36 48

287

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Flee

t Gas

- Ba

selo

ad

GTSC

Adva

nced

Nat

ural

Gas

w/o

CCS

Adva

nced

Nat

ural

Gas

w/ C

CS

Flee

t Coa

l - B

asel

oad

Adva

nced

Coa

l –PC

w/o

CCS

Adva

nced

Coa

l –PC

w/

CCS

Adva

nced

Coa

l –SC

PC w

/o C

CS

Adva

nced

Coa

l –SC

PC w

/ CCS

Adva

nced

Coa

l –U

SCPC

w/o

CCS

Adva

nced

Coa

l –U

SCPC

w/ C

CS

Adva

nced

Coa

l –O

xy C

ombu

stio

n

Adva

nced

Coa

l –Fu

el C

ells

Chem

ical

Loo

ping

Flee

t Nuc

lear

Adva

nced

Nuc

lear

Hydr

o

Win

d

Sola

rthe

rmal

Sola

r PV

Geot

herm

al

Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables

Life

cyc

le G

HG e

miss

ions

for

deliv

ered

ele

ctric

ity u

sing

AR5

GWPs

(g

CO

₂e/k

Wh

deliv

ered

)

NG extraction Coal extractionU fuel acquistion Fuel transportPower plant Mean GHG using 20-yr GWP

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• Implementation of Consequential LCA for Energy Systems

• Development of Social LCIA Metrics & MCDM frameworks

• Creation of Power System Construction Inventories

Other Emerging Work

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Contact Information

Timothy J. Skone, P.E.Senior Environmental Engineer • Strategic Energy Analysis (412) 386-4495 • timothy.skone@netl.doe.gov

Joe MarriottPrincipal Engineer • KeyLogicjoseph.marriott@netl.doe.gov

James LittlefieldSenior Engineer • KeyLogicjames.littlefield@netl.doe.gov

netl.doe.gov/LCA LCA@netl.doe.gov @NETL_News