Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Overview of the 2006 NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Project
MAP’ 06:
In Support of NASA
Earth Science and Technology
Bill Lapenta (NASA/MSFC)
Michele Rienecker (GMAO/GSFC)Mike Seablom (SIVO/GSFC)
Updated July 2006
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Satellites provide global coverage of Earth system parameters
Satellites characterize variability at seasonal-to-interannual timescales
Satellites provide information to initialize and validate coupled model systems
NASA emphasizes the optimal use of these data for analysis and prediction
NASA Conducts Observation Driven Modeling….
• Improved scientific understanding
• Hypothesis testing
• Prediction
Models used for:
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
The 2006 NASA Modeling and Analysis Project
Objective: Application of NASA’s satellite remote sensing technologies and earth system modeling capabilities to improve understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones
Science Questions:Can satellite data assimilation improve prediction (out to 5 days) of
easterly waves, tropical cyclogenesis and hurricanes?
What impact is gained with increased model resolution?
What role do aerosols play in tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic basin?
What roles do land – ocean – atmosphere interactions play in the structure and evolution of easterly waves as they propagate off the western African coast?
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
The Approach….Employ global (GEOS-5) and regional (WRF) modeling systems
Conduct data assimilation using GSI with GEOS-5
Satellite DA and model assessment/evaluation using multiple satellite sensors/missions (AIRS, MODIS, AMSU, TRMM, CloudSat/CALIPSO)
Conduct global assimilation and simulations during the 2006 hurricane season --- statistically significant assessment of performance
Run regional WRF on demand with GEOS-5 initial and lateral boundary data
Formed a Science Working Group to coordinate experiments and subsequent analysis
Enabled by NASA High End Computing
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde
Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci
Platforms: DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars
Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD
NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives
NASA Conducting Tropical Cyclone Campaign: N-AMMA-06
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Increasing resolution improves realism of forecasts of the details in 2-day Katrina forecasts
GEOS5: Realizing the power of Columbia
1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution
0.25 degree resolution
0.25 degree resolution
1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution
Verifying Analysis from NOAA/NCEP
Precipitation Rate
Sea Level Pressure
Columbia allows high resolution and rapid time-to-solution
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Regional modeling component a new addition for MAP06
Developed capability to initialize with GEOS-5/GSI analyses
Can run with ARW core with plans to include NMM
Focus on air-sea interactions with MODIS 1-km SST composites
Land-atmosphere interactions using the Land Information System (LIS) & cloud microphysics (GCE)
Conduct regional DA experiments
Cloud processes evaluation using Cloudast/Calipso
coolw
arm
SST
coolw
arm
coolw
arm
SST
Comparison of MODIS and RTG SST
RTG MODIS
Fields Interpolated to a 2-km WRF Domain
1km
High-resolution (enabled by LIS):-See small, medium, large cities-Demonstrate impact of EOS-era observations (e.g., MODIS) 1km
High-resolution (enabled by LIS):-See small, medium, large cities-Demonstrate impact of EOS-era observations (e.g., MODIS)
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Proposed MODIS SST Composite for MAP’ 06
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
WRF used as “Model of Opportunity”
Normal Ops•N-AMMA Region•Florida/Gulf Coast•CloudSat Overpass
Special Ops•Tropical storms•Hurricane-US coast
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Access to High End Computing
Test G5DAS G5, WRF G5DAS
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Visualization Techniques
Web-based VMS
HyperWall Technology
Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Summary Project focused on scientific issues
• Assimilation perspective—GSI framework• Assessment of FV dynamics within GEOS-5• Model assessment and evaluation• Includes process study perspective
Cross cuts several Interagency and NASA programs• Relevant to NASA-NOAA Research and Operations• Building links between JCSDA (NCEP/GMAO) and the NASA SPoRT
activities
Coordination with US-AMMA Activities• Provide support to N-AMMA• DA Sensitivity studies complement those proposed by J. Dunion at
AMOL/HRD
Provides supplemental track and intensity forecasts to TPC and FSU
Global and regional modeling PI’s working together on common scientific problems and interests
