Overview of the LongRun Volatility Strategy

Overview of the LongRun

Volatility Strategy

As of March 31, 2017

1CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY

Why Invest In Volatility?

- The ten-year outlook for returns from traditional asset classes (stocks and bonds) is well below historical averages.

- US equity markets are expected to average returns of 2% to 5% based on research from many prominent firms (e.g. Vanguard, AQR, Research Affiliates, GMO).

- After a 30+ year bull market in bonds, expected returns are challenged by the prospect of rising interest rates.

- Even with an expanded selection of investments (e.g. emerging markets, commodities, private equity, hedge funds), the average portfolio will almost certainly fall well short of the 8% to 10% returns many people expect.

- In this environment, sophisticated investors will seek out unconventional sources of return. Volatility represents a unique opportunity.


This information is for the private use of the recipient and is not a solicitation to invest in any product or security. See "Important Disclosures" for additional information that should be considered regarding this strategy.


3

Markets have a history of episodes that create spikes in the CBOE volatility index (VIX), also known as the “Fear Index”. These spikes create opportunities to profit from investments tied to these significant moves in volatility.

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYThis information is for the private use of the recipient and is not a solicitation to invest in any product or security.

See "Important Disclosures" for additional information that should be considered regarding this strategy.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

VIX and Long-Term Trends

VIX 1 year MA 5 year MA 10Yr MA Low 10Yr MA High

2000-2002

Bear Market

Global

Financial

Crisis

Asian Contagion,

Russian Crisis

and LTCM

2010

Flash

Crash

2011 Euro Debt

Crisis and US

Debt Downgrade

August 2015

China Crisis;

Early 2016

Meltdown


4

LongRun’s VolStrat shows a compound annual return of more than 60% versus 9% for the S&P 500 for the period from August 2008 through March 2017. However, investors must be able to tolerate multiple peak-to-trough drawdowns of 20% or more.

$500,000

$1,103,082

$35,277,698



250,000

500,000

1,000,000

2,000,000

4,000,000

8,000,000

16,000,000

32,000,000

64,000,000

VolStrat S&P 500

Investing In Volatility

- There are two basic approaches to investing in volatility:- Buying “insurance” to protect a portfolio from the adverse effects of volatility

(sometimes referred to as tail risk hedging);- Selling “insurance” after a volatility spike when “premiums” are high but the probability

of extended turbulence is low.

- Exchange traded products (e.g. VXX and XIV) based on VIX futures provide vehicles to buy and sell this insurance.

- Buying insurance (going long volatility) is expensive and has a negative expected value over time.

- Selling insurance (shorting volatility) has a positive expected value because pricing usually reflects a significant risk premium for the possibility of adverse events that are infrequent and typically short-lived.

- The challenge in shorting volatility is to mitigate the infrequent but large volatility spikes that can turn a short position into a loss.



Term Structure and VIX ETPs

- The structures of volatility exchange traded products (e.g. VXX/XIV) present unique investment opportunities based on the VIX term structure.

- VXX and XIV references an index that uses the first and second month VIX futures to create a 30-day constant maturity exposure either long (VXX) or short (XIV).

- Since the introduction of VIX futures in 2004, the VIX term structure has been in contango more than 80% of the time. As shown on the next page, an investor benefits from being short volatility (holding XIV) when contango is persistent.

- When the VIX term structure is in persistent backwardation, an investor may benefit from being long volatility (holding VXX) but this condition is infrequent and usually occurs in highly volatile markets.


See "Important Disclosures" for additional information that should be considered before making any investment

Example of Contango Term Structure

7

A position short volatility (long XIV) benefits when VIX futures are in persistent contango and the front two months roll down to converge with VIX.

15.33

16.58

17.33

17.78

18.28

18.7318.93 18.98

13.13

14.88

15.88

16.48

17.08

17.58

17.9318.05

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8

Change in VIX Futures Term Structure from 4/15/2015 to 5/19/2015

Futures 4/15/15 Futures 5/19/15 VIX Index

VIX closed at 12.84 on 4/15 and 12.85 on 5/19 - essentially unchanged for the period

The May contract

was 15.33 on 4/15 and rolled down

to 13.13 on 5/19 for a loss of 14%.

The June contract

was 16.58 on 4/15 and rolled down

to 14.88 on 5/19 for a loss of 10%.

XIV closed at $39.94 on 4/15 and

$45.03 on 5/19 for a gain of 13%,

reflecting the losses realized on

the May and June futures

contracts that it was short.

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYSee "Important Disclosures" for additional information that

should be considered before making any investment

Example of Backwardation Term Structure

8

A position long volatility (long VXX) benefits when VIX futures are in persistent backwardation with rising VIX and futures roll higher.

25.9025.10

24.5524.05

25.35 25.70 25.60

38.55

34.55

32.85

30.80

31.85 31.75 31.90

22.00

26.00

30.00

34.00

38.00

42.00

46.00

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8

Change in VIX Futures Term Structure from 8/4/2011 to 9/9/2011

Futures 8/4/11 VIX 8/4/11 Futures 9/9/11 VIX 9/9/11

VIX went up 22% from 31.66 on 8/4 to 38.52 on 9/9 and brought front month futures with it

The September contract

was 25.90 on 8/4 and followed VIX up to 38.55

on 9/9 for a gain of 49%.

The October contract

was 25.10 on 8/4 and moved up to 34.55 on

9/9 for a gain of 38%.

VXX closed at $28.90 on 8/4 and

$45.83 on 9/9 for a gain of 59%,

compounding the gains from the

September and October futures

contracts that it was long.

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYSee "Important Disclosures" for additional information that

should be considered before making any investment

Long vs. Short Volatility



The cost of maintaining a long vol position overwhelms the infrequent profit when vol spikes. An unmanaged short position has positive long-term expected value but is volatile to the point of being untenable. A managed strategy with a short bias is a logical approach to investing in volatility (but still risky).

Since the Nov 2010 inception of XIV Since 1/1/2015 for better visibility

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

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7

Buy Insurance (Long Vol=VXX) Sell Insurance (Short Vol=XIV)

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

Buy Insurance (Long Vol=VXX) Sell Insurance (Short Vol=XIV)

LongRun Volatility Strategy

- The LongRun Volatility Strategy (VolStrat) is designed to produce aggressive returns using a rules-based quantitative approach to capitalize on short-term and medium-term trends in equity market volatility.

- VolStrat is NOT a tail risk strategy designed to profit from sudden, short-term spikes in volatility that are inherently difficult to predict.

- VolStrat profits primarily from a return to normalcy after a spike in volatility coincident with a short-term pullback or correction in the market. As volatility recedes, shorting volatility (selling high priced insurance) can be very profitable.

- In general, the portfolio will be short volatility when equity markets are stable or trending higher (decreasing or stable volatility environments). An increase in volatility will trigger an exit, shift positioning to cash and may lead to a long position that profits from increasing volatility.

- Backtest results dating from August 2008 show that VolStrat had short exposure more than 50% of the time, long exposure less than 10% of the time and held cash approximately 40% of the time.



VolStrat Mechanics

- The LongRun Volatility Trading Strategy (VolStrat) incorporates a systematic approach to identifying and executing trades.

- VolStrat uses the relationship between intermediate-term volatility (VXV) and long-term volatility (VXMT) to determine positioning of the portfolio. Specifically, the ratio of the closing value of VXV divided by the closing value of VXMT is separately compared to the 60-day and 150-day simple moving averages of the VXV/VXMT ratio.

- The use of these two signals can result in the following portfolio allocations:- 100% short volatility (long XIV) if the ratio is less than both moving averages;- 50% short volatility (long XIV) and 50% cash if the ratio is less than one moving

average but greater than the other moving average;- 100% cash if the ratio is above both moving averages and both moving averages are

less than 1;- 50% long volatility (long VXX) and 50% cash if the ratio is above both moving

averages and one of the moving averages is above 1;- 100% long volatility (long VXX) if the ratio is above both moving averages and

both moving averages are above 1.


See "Important Disclosures" for additional information that should be considered before making any investment

Most Common

Least Common

VolStrat Pros and ConsPros:

- The potential for high returns with low correlation to other asset classes.- Rules-driven strategy provides transparent process and discipline.- Structured as a separately managed account with no lock-up. Client has direct ownership

versus commingled hedge fund structures.- Especially attractive for tax-advantaged structures (retirement accounts, charitable entities

and private insurance or annuity contracts).Cons:

- Limited history of live trading performance. Backtest results demonstrate past effectiveness of rules but provide no guarantee of future performance.

- Returns can be very volatile and investors need at least a two-year time horizon and high tolerance for fluctuation in account value.

- Significant drawdowns, from peak value to exit, may be experienced even during highly profitable trades (hindsight losses).

- Gains are short-term and taxed as ordinary income.- In the event of an abnormally large spike in volatility while the strategy holds a short

position (owning XIV or SVXY), it is possible that an investor’s position could lose most or all of its value. An investor must recognize this possibility when determining an allocation to this strategy.



VolStrat Statistical Summary

13

(Data from August 6, 2008 through March 31, 2017; see the notes for this table on page 27)



Volatility S&P 500

Strategy (SPY)

Compound Annual Return 63.4% 9.6%Starting Value 500,000$ 500,000$ Ending Value 35,277,698$ 1,103,082$ Cumulative Return 6955.5% 120.6%Correlation with S&P 500 12.7%

Calendar Year Returns

Partial 2008 65.8% -29.0%2009 32.7% 26.4%2010 170.9% 15.1%2011 21.7% 1.9%2012 130.3% 16.0%2013 38.4% 32.3%2014 16.9% 13.5%2015 0.8% 1.2%2016 99.0% 12.0%

2017 YTD 34.4% 5.9%

Risk/Reward Statistics

Gain % 498.3% 89.9%Pain % -198.7% -135.8%Gain to Pain Ratio 2.5 0.7Maximum Drawdown -29.6% -41.7%Sharpe Ratio 1.5 0.6 Ulcer Index 9.7% 11.0%Ulcer Performance Index 6.5 0.9

VolStrat Trade Distribution

14

The majority of VolStrat trades are within +/- 5% with overall results driven by a significant number of trades that produced gains > 15% (positive skew)



2

11

23

60

71

17

8

28

-6

4

14

24

34

44

54

64

74

< -15% -10% to -15% -5% to -10% -5% to 0% 0% to +5% +5% to +10% +10% to +15% > +15%

Monthly Return Distribution

15

As with trade data, the mode of monthly returns is within +/- 5% but the right side of the distribution is much larger than the left side



2 3

11

28

22

9

12

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

< -15% -10% to -15% -5% to -10% -5% to 0% 0% to +5% +5% to +10% +10% to +15% > +15%

Ongoing Research

- Opportunities to enter short (XIV) in anticipation of a signal (reversals with divergences; breadth signals; fractal application of VolStrat rules).

- Possible low risk entries on the long side (VXX) in anticipation of a volatility spike.

- Signals to enter short (XIV) that can be ignored to shrink the large middle bars in the return histogram (very low levels of VIX/VIX futures; overbought levels for XIV).

- Managing exits on outsized winners based on historical expectations and signs of decay/vulnerability.



Management & Account Details

Investment Manager: LongRun Capital Management LLC

Investment Structure: Separately Managed Accounts

Custodian: Fidelity Investments

Minimum Investment: $500,000

Lock-Up: None

Liquidity/Redemption: Upon client request

Management Fee: 1% up to 2x initial AUM; 2% above 2x

Contact Information: Jim Carroll, [email protected], 914-202-2755



About LongRun Capital

- LongRun Capital Management (the “Firm”) is a registered investment advisor (RIA) founded in 2003 to provide investment services to high net worth individuals and their related entities (e.g. trusts and charitable entities). The Firm also serves as sub-advisor to an insurance-dedicated fund that employs certain of our strategies in a tax-efficient structure to maximize capital appreciation.

- Jim Carroll is the Managing Partner of LongRun Capital and has been responsible for the development of the distinctive investment strategies employed by the Firm. Prior to founding the Firm, Jim was the Chief Financial Officer of a public company and spent 16 years as an investment banker at Smith Barney, Kidder Peabody and Bear Stearns. He received an MBA from Harvard University and a BA in Psychology from Claremont McKenna College. After college, Jim served four years on active duty in the US Army.

- Additional information on the Firm is available at www.longruncapital.com.



Appendix

Analysis of Rolling Returns

and Worst Entry Points


VolStrat Rolling Returns

- The LongRun Volatility Strategy (VolStrat) has been tested back to August 2008 and this analysis reviews returns for rolling periods from six months to two years. For example, the analysis looks at what the return would have been for each potential six-month holding period (August 2008 through January 2009, September 2008 through February 2009, etc.).

- For each rolling period in the analysis, the following charts include the number of rolling periods, the percent that had positive returns and the average, maximum and minimum returns.






-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

VolStrat Rolling 6-Month Returns

# of Periods

% Positive

Average

Max

Min

30.0%

106.4%

-25.2%

99

82.8%




-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

4/3

0/2

009

6/3

0/2

009

8/3

1/2

009

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00

9

12/3

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00

9

2/2

6/2

010

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/29

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0

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5

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5

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01

6

2/2

8/2

017


46.7%

143.1%

-27.0%

96# of Periods

% Positive

Average

Max

Min

91.7%




-25.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

100.0%

125.0%

150.0%

175.0%

200.0%

7/31

/200

99/

30/2

009

11/3

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091/

29/2

010

3/31

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05/

28/2

010

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09/

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7


66.1%

183.7%

-13.2%

93# of Periods

% Positive

Average

Max

Min

95.7%




-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%


111.3%

317.5%

-20.7%

87# of Periods

% Positive

Average

Max

Min

96.6%




0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

400.0%

450.0%


171.3%

388.6%

17.2%

# of Periods

% Positive

Average

Max

Min

81

100.0%

VolStrat Worst Entry Points

- VolStrat has shown impressive returns in the backtest results and initial live trading. However, historical returns have been very volatile and long-term investors would have experienced significant drawdowns.

- This analysis identifies the three worst entry points from the historical results – those times when an investor would have experienced an immediate and significant decline in value.

- For each worst entry point, we identify the significant drawdowns an investor would have experienced from entry to the present, how long it would have taken to recover from each drawdown and what the overall returns would have been. Returns for an investment in the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same time period are provided for comparison.




27

VolStrat reached a high water mark in May 2011 and then entered a multi-month drawdown of 25% before recovering. An investor entering in May 2011 would have experienced four drawdowns of 20% or more but to date would have realized a cumulative gain of 775% and a compound annual return of 45%.



S&P 500

+97% Cume

+12% CAR

VolStrat

+775% Cume

+45% CAR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

5/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

9/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

1/1/

2012

3/1/

2012

5/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

9/1/

2012

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/201

2

1/1/

2013

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2013

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/201

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/201

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7/1/

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9/1/

2016

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/201

6

1/1/

2017

3/1/

2017

VolStrat S&P 500

-25%8 Mo. Recovery

-23%9 Mo. Recovery

-30%10 Mo. Recovery

-20%1 Mo.

Recovery

-18%5 Mo.

Recovery


28

VolStrat reached a high water mark in August 2014 and then entered a multi-month drawdown of 23%. Another high water mark was reached in May 2015, followed by a 30% pullback. After a third drawdown in June 2016, an investor would have realized a cumulative gain of 108% and a compound annual return of 32%.



VolStrat

+108% Cume

+32% CAR

S&P 500

+24% Cume

+9% CAR

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

-23%9 Mo. Recovery

-30%10 Mo. Recovery

-20%1 Mo.

Recovery

-18%5 Mo.

Recovery


29

VolStrat reached a high water mark in May 2015 and then entered a multi-month drawdown of 30% before recovering. A 20% drawdown occurred in June 2016 with a one month recovery. To date, an investor would have realized a cumulative gain of 89% and a compound annual return of 39%.



VolStrat

+89% Cume

+39% CAR

S&P 500

+16% Cume

+8% CAR

50.00

70.00

90.00

110.00

130.00

150.00

170.00

190.00

210.00

-20%1 Mo. Recovery

-30%10 Mo. Recovery

-18%5 Mo.

Recovery

Notes to Statistical Summay

30

- Statistics are based on a backtest of the basic volatility strategy with a start date of 8/6/2008.

- Gain/Pain Ratio (GPR) is a measure of risk-adjusted return that compares the gain from an investment with the pain endured to achieve it. Gain is measured as the sum of all monthly returns and pain is the sum of all negative monthly returns. Fewer and/or smaller negative returns will result in a higher GPR. A GPR greater than 1 represents an attractive risk-adjusted return.

- Maximum drawdown measures the worst peak to trough decline in portfolio value over the measured period. For example, a decline in portfolio value from a peak of $1 million to a trough of $750,000 would be a 25% drawdown. Large drawdowns require even larger subsequent returns to recover lost value over extended periods.

- Sharpe ratio compares return and volatility as another measure of risk-adjusted return. Excess return (annualized investment return less a risk-free Treasury bill rate) is divided by the standard deviation of returns. Broad market indices (e.g. S&P 500) typically have a Sharpe ratio less than 1. A ratio above 1 represents an attractive risk-adjusted return.

- Ulcer Index (UI) measures the depth and duration of all drawdowns in portfolio value from previous highs (referred to as time spent “underwater”). Maximum drawdown looks at only the worst peak to trough reversal while UI measures all drawdowns and gives greater weight to larger and longer drawdowns, providing a more comprehensive gauge of risk.

- Ulcer Performance Index (UPI) measures risk-adjusted return as the excess return (see Sharpe Ratio) divided by the Ulcer Index. It is similar in concept to the Gain/Pain Ratio. UPI in excess of 2 represents an attractive risk-adjusted return.



• Volatility Strategy: The Volatility Strategy demonstrated in this presentation is a rules-based approach to investing in VIX-related exchange traded products (ETPs) that provide long and short exposure to VIX futures contracts. LongRun Capital developed this strategy after an extensive survey of publicly-disclosed volatility trading strategies combined with independent research. The current methodology used to determine the exposure of the LongRun Volatility Strategy may be modified in the future based on experience from actual trading and input from ongoing research.

• Backtest: LongRun Capital constructed a backtest of the Volatility Strategy and contracted a third-party expert to execute the backtest using commercial software specifically designed for such purpose. The start of the backtest was the first date on which all necessary data was available. The data used in the backtest was obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we are not responsible for possible errors or omissions in that data. This includes estimated historical prices for two exchange traded products (VXX and XIV) that were calculated for the backtest period prior to their respective inceptions based on actual historical prices of the VIX futures contracts that constitute VXX and XIV. These estimated historical prices for VXX and XIV are believed to accurately represent their values had they been trading at the time. The backtest results incorporate the impact of a management fee and potential trading slippage. The results achieved in actual accounts may vary from those that would be indicated from backtest results. Backtest performance of the strategy provides no guarantee of future results.

• Exchange Traded Products: The Volatility Strategy is implemented using a limited set of ETPs that provide long or short exposure to VIX futures contracts. There can be no guarantee that these ETPs will continue to have active trading markets in the future, in which case LongRun may not be able to maintain the Volatility Strategy. In addition, two different structures are employed by the firms sponsoring the ETPs that may be used to implement the Volatility Strategy. VXX and XIV are the most actively traded of the VIX-related ETPs and have the largest assets under management (AUM). Both are structured as exchange traded notes (ETNs). ETNs are designed to track the value of a specific index and provide the ETN holder with the total return (positive or negative) of that index over time. ETNs are an unsecured debt obligation of the sponsoring firm (Barclays for VXX and Credit Suisse for XIV) and therefore expose a holder to risk of default by the sponsor. As debt obligations, holders of a volatility-related ETN do not own a direct interest in the VIX futures contracts that determine the value of the underlying index. Other ETPs provide equivalent exposure to VIX futures include VIXY (equivalent to VXX) and SVXY (equivalent to XIV). Both VIXY and SVXY are structured as commodity pools that own direct interests in the VIX futures contracts that determine the value of the underlying index. As such, they are not subject to the creditworthiness of their issuers. However, as commodity pools, they are subject to different tax treatment that includes year-end mark-to-market valuation and tax reporting on Form K-1. This treatment may have adverse consequences for taxable investors. In addition, VIXY and SVXY are significantly smaller in terms of AUM and trade lower average volumes than VXX and XIV.

• Risk of Significant or Total Loss: The Volatility Strategy will often hold a position that is directly or indirectly short VIX futures contracts, through a long position in XIV or SVXY. Should there be an abnormally large spike in volatility while holding such a position, it is possible that an investor’s position could lose most or all of its value. An investor must recognize this possibility when determining an allocation to this strategy.

Important Disclosures


Date post:	15-Feb-2022
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Overview of the LongRun Volatility Strategy

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