OVERVIEW OF THE SPACE SECTORspace-lt.eu/failai/Prezentacijos/Walter Peeters_ Overview... ·...

Prof. W. Peeters

OVERVIEW OF THE

SPACE SECTOR

W. Peeters

Faculty, Space Business and Management

International Space University

7 October 2010 – Vilnius, Lithuania

NordicBaltsat, 2010Prof. W. Peeters 2

Space organization : Overview

• SPACE BUSINESS

– Traditional scenario

– The changing environment

– Commercialisation

• THE SPACE INDUSTRY

• SPACE ECONOMICS & GEOPOLITICS


Space Business Overview

Traditional Financing Scenario


The Public Space MarketPublic space expenditure (EUROSPACE, ESA)

Country Space budget

(2009 B$)

Subdivision

U.S. 50.0 35 % NASA

EUROPE 9.0 50 % ESA

JAPAN 3.2 65 % JAXA

ROW ~10.0 3 (?) Rus, 4 (?) China, .8 Ind, .3 Ca,

.3 Brasil, .3 S-Korea …

Total 72 39 civilian

Notes: US : 64.4 if classified activities are added (NRO(10), NGA(3),…)

ROW = Rest of the World


Space Budgets and PPP

PPP = Purchasing Power Parity;

China x 3.5 = 10 B$, India x 4.8 = 4 B$

Space Budget 2009 : PPP

Distribution (%)

50%

2,80%

11,20%

29,20%

2,20%4,50%

USA Japan Europe + Canada BRIC ROW N11

Space Budget 2009 :

Distribution (%)

67%

3,80%

15,70%

10,30%

1,30% 1,90%

USA Japan Europe + Canada BRIC ROW N11


European Civil vs. Military Space

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Civil programmes sales

Military programmes salesIn M€

Source : Eurospace, 2010


Commercial space sector (1)

Problem to have real figures:

• No dedicated statistics (e.g. space vehicles and guided missiles together in ISIC 3530).

• Some figures not known (Russia, China)

• Delimitation, e.g. Telecommunications (2009)

– space segment 3.6 B$

– Satellite capacity 11 B$

– Ground segment 10-20 B$

– Added value 50-80 B$


Commercial space sector (2)

Turnover 2009 : 160.9 B$

83.0%

5%

11%

2.00%

Telecom

Launchers

Navigation

Earth obs

(Source: SIA/Futron)

Note : Navigation 18% depending on ground terminals inclusion


Commercial Space Sector Evolution

(Source SIA/Futron, June 2010)

Note: Ground Segment : mobile terminals, dishes,

control stations, handheld equipment…Note: 2009/2008 : +11%


Global Space Activity 2009

(Source : Space Foundation, 2010)

Note 2009/2008 : + 8%


Space Commercialization evolution in Europe (in percentage)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 USA

2009

Public funding Commercial funding

(Source: Eurospace, Space Foundation)


Space organization

• SPACE BUSINESS







Major Changes in Industry

Approach:

• Mergers: 26 U.S. space integration companies in 1980

4 main left in 1997 ! (Lockheed-Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop-Grumann)

Verticalization (end-to-end, market contact)

Consolidation ( economy of scale, 600 million $ of Boeing in Sea launch…)

• In Europe : Astrium and Thales


26 companies 4

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19981992 1999 2000 2001

De Havilland

McDonnell

Hughes Space

Ford Aerospace

IBM-Federal Sys.

BoeingRockwell A+D

Douglas

GD-Aircraft

Martin MariettaLockheed

Loral

LTV Missiles

Unisys.

Hughes Aircraft

GrummanNorthrop

LTV Aircraft

Litton IndustriesNewport News

BAe Business Jets

WestinghouseLogicon

RaytheonBeech Aircraft

TI-Defense

Alliancesin US from vertical horizontal

(Source: U. Beck, SSP05)


Similar Process in W. Europe

ITALY

Selenia Alenia

Sapazio Aeritalia ‘90

Finmeccanica

GERMANY ERNO ‘80 MBB MBB

Daimler Benz

Dornier

TST

GREAT BRITAIN British Aerospace GEC Marconi

FRANCE

Matra Espace

Aerospatiale

Alcatel NV Thomson CSF

Dassault Electronique

1980 1990 2000

‘93 Alenia Aerospazio

No space activities ‘89 ‘92 DASA

‘90 ‘94 Matra Marconi Space

‘98 Alcatel Space ‘83 Alcatel Espace

‘99 EADS (Astrium

and EADS

launchers)

Thales

Alenia

Space


Present distribution in Europe (2009)

EADS

32%

Thales

27%

Finmeccanica

6%

Safran

5%

RUAG

3%

OHB

3%

Others

24%

(Source: Eurospace, 2010)


Major Space Infrastructure companies

(2009, in B$)

Rank Company Country Space

turnover

1 (1) Lockheed Martin U.S. 10.9

2 (2) Boeing U.S. 7.1

3 (3) EADS Europe 6.9

4 (4) Northrop U.S. 6.0

5 (5) Raytheon U.S. 4.4

6 (6) Thales/Alenia Europe 2.9

23 (22) Mitsubishi El. Ind. (MEI) Japan 0.8

31 (33) MDA Canada 0.4

(Source: Space News, August 2, 2010)


2009 Top Ten Fixed Service

Global Satellite Operators

Rank Satellite Operator Country

2009

Revenue

Satellites

in Orbit

Satellites

on Order

1(1) Intelsat Bermuda (US) $2.50 billion 52 8

2(2) SES ( + Sirius) Luxemburg $2.44 billion 44 11

3(3) Eutelsat S.A. France $1.41 billion 26 6

4(4) Telesat (+ Loral) Canada $750 million 12 3

5(5) Sky Perfect (JSAT ) Japan $363 million 13 2

6(9) Singtel/Optus Singapore/Aus $237 million 5 0

7(7) Hispasat Spain $216 million 4 3

8(6) RSC Russia $200 million 11 4

9(8) Star One Brazil $193 million 7 1

10(10) Arabsat Saudi Arabia $189 million 4 3

(Source: Space News, July 5, 2010)Notes : 15 (-) : China DBS, $ 117 million


Employment in the Space Sector

Employment in European Space Activities

World: > 1,000,000 people(248,000 USA; 300,000 Russia; 260,000 China)

SECTOR EMPLOYM.

(2009)

% ESTIMATE

(1983)

Space Companies

(incl. services)35,000 75 -

Institutions

(ESA/national)5,500 13 -

Universities/

laboratories5,000 12 -

Totals 45,500 100 31,000

Source Eurospace/SIA


Employment in European Space Industry

(Eurospace, 2010): External Personnel on site

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Final sales (current e.c. M€)

Employment (FTE)


Turnover in the European Space sector(Eurospace)

• Aircraft sector : 190 Keuro

• Machinery: 75 Keuro, Furniture: 50 Keuro

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Turnover

(Keuro/empl.)

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

Final sales …


Space organization

• SPACE BUSINESS







Public Space Expenditure and GDP2007 OECD report

Figure 2.1.1b: Public space bugets as a % of national GDP for available OECD and Non-OECD*

countries, 2005

Sources: Budgets: NASA, CSA, ESTP (Europe), JAXA, Other National sources.

GDP: National Accounts of OECD Countries: Vol 1, May 2007.

0.295%

0.100%

0.097%

0.085%

0.084%

0.069%

0.061%

0.058%

0.050%

0.045%

0.033%

0.032%

0.028%

0.025%

0.023%

0.022%

0.020%

0.019%

0.019%

0.016%

0.015%

0.014%

0.011%

0.010%

0.009%

0.006%

0.004%

0.003%

0.002%

0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35%

US

India*

France

Russian Fed*

G-7 Avg

China*(1)

Italy

Belgium

Germany

Japan

Switzerland

Sweden

Norway

Canada

Netherlands

Finland

Austria

Denmark

Spain

Luxembourg

South Korea

United Kingdom

Portugal

Brazil*

Ireland

Greece

Hungary

Poland

Czech republic

(1) Chinese data based on unoff icial estimates


10

1785

1135

425

175

120Common Agricultural Policy

Civil governmental R&D budgets

Defense expenditures

Public expenditures on Education

Healthcare expenditures

Public Space Budgets

European Space expenditures per capita vs. other public budgets or

household consumption expenditures

Sources: Eurostat yearbook 2006-07 “Europe in Figures”; European Defence Agency, “Defence Expenditures”, December 2006;

OECD GBAORD data base. Endnote 12

European Public Budgets

per capita – 2005

in €

Spendings / common life

per capita – 2005

in €

27481742

1638

1135

1121

838

774

464

451

361

130

130Education

Gambling

Communications

Health

Alcoholic beverages, tobacco

Clothing and footwear

Furnishings, household equipments

Recreation

Restaurants and hotels

Food & non-alcoholic beverages

Transport

Housing, water, electricity, gas

* GBAORD: ”Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for R&D”

*

Public space budgets 10Public space budgets 10

Healthcare expenditures

Public expenditures on Education

Public space budgets 10

Defence expenditures

* Civil governmental R&D budgets

Common Agricultural Policy

Public Space Expenditure comparison


Geopolitical Influences

• On 25 May 1961 (6

weeks after 12.4.1961),

US President John F.

Kennedy:

‘I believe that the aim of

this nation should be

to land a man on the

moon and return him

safely to Earth before

the end of the decade.’

• Space Race era started

• Budgetary priority


NASA budget as % of US GDP

NASA Budget

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

% o

f Fe

de

ral B

ud

get

0

24

6

810

12

14

1618

20

No

min

al B

ud

get

(Bill

ion

USD

)

% of Federal Budget Nominal

Source: Bathat, MSc10, OMB data


US Public Space budgetsM

illio

n $

(F

Y2

00

3)

Data Source: Prospace, the American Space Program (2007)


Spin-Off and Spin-In

Space Non-Space

Spin-Off

Spin-In


Macroeconomic study results

ESA 1980 ESA 1988 Canada 1989

Period 1964-82 1977-91 1979-93

Return 2.9 3.2 3.5

Technical 25% 32% 40%

Commercial 27% 8% 18%

Organisational 19% 6% 18%

Workfactor 29% 54% 24%

Study results are unfortunately becoming outdated!


1 % approach examples

Resulting Table (examples)

Item Space Source 1% saving

equivalent

Burner

efficiency

Microgravity

combustion

15 B$ yearly

Semiconductor

material

Material

sciences

30 M$ yearly

Osteoporosis Human

spaceflights

2 B$ yearly

(USA and EU)

Skin cancer

detection

Science

(ROSAT-MPI)

100 M$ yearly

http://mgnwww.larc.nasa.gov/db/combustion/combustion.html


Spin-in Importance

• 1960s – 1980s

Space technology leading (cutting edge)

New management techniques developed in space sector

Major spin-off effect

• 1990 - ?

Budget cuts

Technology life times longer in space

Less globalisation, hence less technology transfer

Export Control

Growth of spin-in


Space Economy : Key figures (2009)

• World Space = > 250 B$

• 2/3th commercial, 1/3th Public

• Worldwide = 0.25% of GDP

• In Europe : 12 $/capita

• Space employment worldwide > 1 million people

• Return from Space investment > 3


References (general)

• Web sites (e.g. www.space.com, www.eurospace.org, www.spacefoundation.org, …)

• Specialized reports (e.g. FUTRON, Frost&Sullivan)

• SIA/Futron, SBC, State of the Satellite Industry Report (June 2010),

• Space Foundation, The Space Report 2010

• EUROSPACE, European Space Directory (Sevig Press, Paris, yearly)

• OECD, Space 2030 (OECD, 2005)

• ISU, The Farthest Shore (Apogee, 2010)

• Peeters, W. Space Marketing (Kluwer, 2000)


References (spin-off)

• ESA, Down to Earth, ESA BR-280, September 2009

• NASA, Spinoff (yearly publication, book and CD)

• Bach, L., Cohendet, P. and Schenk, E., Technological Transfers from the European Space Programs. Journal of Technology Transfer, 27, 321-338, 2002.

• Hertzfeld, H., Technology Transfer in the Space Sector: An International Perspective, Journal of Technology transfer, 27, 307-309, 2002.

• Aubin, Y. (ed), Export Control Law and Regulations Handbook (Kluwer, 2007)

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