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Individual Assignment Final Report
Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management
January 2019
CATHERINE MBABAZI
Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda:
Translating Policy into Action
Mentor (s):
Writing Supervisor (s)
Dr. Nelson MusobaProf. Freddie Ssengooba
Dr. Richard Mangwi
Individual Assignment Final Report
Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management
CATHERINE MBABAZI
Ministry of Health of the Republic of Uganda
Makerere University College of Health Sciences – School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda
Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
February, 2019
Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda:
Translating Policy into Action
Mentor (s):
Writing Supervisor (s)
Dr. Nelson MusobaProf. Freddie Ssengooba
Dr. Richard Mangwi
AcknowledgementsI acknowledge the technical guidance of Dr Nelson Musoba and the Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management Coordination Team (Prof Christopher Orach, Dr Christine Tashobya, Dr Richard Mangwi Ayiasi, Dr Elizabeth Nabiwemba, Dr Valéria Campos da Silveira) for their valuable comments that improved the design and implementation of this study.
My sincere appreciation goes to Prof Freddie Ssengooba for his valuable guidance throughout the conceptualization and review of this study. My appreciation to the Supporting Policy Engagements and Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda Project Team for review of the proposal and catalytic funding, in particular Dr Aloysius Ssennyonjo, Grace Ikirimat and Dr Christine Nabiryo for reviewing my work.
Acknowledgement and appreciation to the National Planning Authority (Dr J. Ssekamatte, J. Mutabazi, S. Nahalamba), the National Population Council (Charles Zirarema, Dr Betty Kyaddondo, Simon Peter Alele), and the UNFPA (Florence Tagoola) technical team for their valued input into the study.
Special recognition to the Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium, for technical and financial support to the Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Operational Definitionsi. Demographic Dividend: is the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s
age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older (Bloom et al., 2003; Mason 2001). A boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents (Canning et.al, 2015). UNFPA (2015) stated that “a country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend.” Four mechanisms for growth in the demographic dividend.
The demographic dividend can accrue through four mechanisms: -
a) Increased labour supply. The magnitude of this benefit appears to be dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers rather than be a pure demographic gift.
b) Increase in savings. As the number of dependents decreases, individuals can save more. This increase in national savings rates increases the stock of capital in developing countries already facing shortages of capital and leads to higher productivity as the accumulated capital is invested.
c) Human capital. Decreases in fertility rates result in healthier women and fewer economic pressures at home. This also allows parents to invest more resources per child, leading to better health and educational outcomes.
d) Growth in domestic demand brought about by the increasing GDP per capita and the decreasing dependency ratio.
ii. Plan: It is a document detailing intended actions that a country/ an organization/ an institution needs to perform, including all the critical elements, in order to achieve a set of goals. Strategic
iii. Planning System: It is a structured process (a management function) that is designed to organize and coordinate the activities of the managers who do the planning. An effective strategic planning system requires “situational design”. It must take into account the institutional situation to provide solutions (Peter Lorange and Richard F. Vanci, 1976) https://hbr.org/topic/strategic-planning
iv. Integrating/mainstreaming the demographic dividend (DD) in plans: Incorporating the DD drivers, indicators and actions as described in the 2040 Vision (NPA, 2010) the National Development Plan (NPA, 2015), the DD Study Report (NPA, 2014) and the National Road Map for Harnessing the DD (NPC, 2018) into development plans.
v. Demographic Dividend Compliant Plan: A national / sector / agency / local government development plans that addresses indicators approved in the National Standard Indicator Framework & DD driver’s integration compliance guidelines.
vi. Demographic Burden: is the ratio of the number of persons under working age and over working age per 1000 people of working age.
vii. Youth Bulge: A scenario where a country has a population of young people (15-29 years) comprising more than 30 percent of the total population.
viii. Age Dependency Ratio: It is an indicator of the economic burden that the productive population must bear. Populations with very high birth rates coupled with low death rates have a high age dependency ratio. Uganda dependency ratio is 103, implying that for every 100 economically active persons, there are 103 dependents (NHPC, 2014).
ix. Outcome-based budgeting: A budget process that aligns resources/funding with expected results. It increases visibility into how government policies translate into spending and focuses on the outcomes
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of a funded activity, i.e. the quality or effectiveness of services provided based on what matter most to citizens. It is a practice most government ministries do of suggesting and listing programme or scheme estimated outcomes while preparing their budget before submitting it to the Ministry of Finance.
x. Population dynamics are changes that arise from the interaction between fertility, mortality and migration, giving rise to the changes in population size, its age structure and spatial distribution. (Ashraf Q.H. et al, 2013).
xi. Total Fertility rate (TFR) is the number of live births a woman would have if she survived to the end of her child bearing age (15-49 years) and experienced the current observed age specific fertility rates.
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Acronyms and AbbreviationsAU – African Union
AWP - Annual Work Plan
BFP - Budget Frame Work Paper
CNDPF- Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework
DD – Demographic Dividend
FY – Financial Year
ICT- Information, Communication and Technology
JLOS- Justice, Law and Order Sector
LG – Local Governments
LHPUD- Lands, Housing, Planning & Urban Development Sector
MDAs- Ministries, Departments and Agencies
NDP- National Development Plan
NPA- National Planning Authority
NPC – National Population Council
NPPAP - National Population Policy Action Plan
PSA - Population Situation Analysis
POPSEC – Population Secretariat – now National Population Council (NPC)
SDGs – Sustainable Development Goals
SDPs- Sector Development Plans
SIPs- Sector Investment Plans
SPEED- Supporting Policy Engagements and Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda
ICT- Information Communication Technology
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Executive Summary Uganda has one of the most youthful populations in the world with nearly half of the population consisting of children below age 15 (47.9) while young population below 30 years of age account for 78% of the total population (Canning et al., 2015). The current structure of young people presents both an opportunity and a challenge. It is a challenge because of high child age dependency ratio (100:103) but also an opportunity if the country nurtures and takes advantage youthful population “harnessing the population bonus or demographic dividend that accrue from the population bulge”.
The National Development Plan II 2015/16-2019/20 (NDPII) adopted harnessing the DD as one of the strategies for achieving the Vision 2040 development goal “to transform Uganda’s population from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years”, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) increasing from US$ 506 in 2010 to US $9,500 by 2040 (NPA, 2015).
This study examined the extent of responsiveness of the national and local government development plans conscious consideration of the demographic dividend (DD) drivers articulated in NPD II policy objective of enhancing Human Capital Development. We reviewed existing national plans including Vision 2040, NDPII, NBFP and NDPII Certificates of Compliance; Sectoral Plans: ICT, Tourism, Social Development, Health and Agriculture; and Local Government Plans: Yumbe, Dokolo, Lwengo, Kabale, Yumbe, Moyo, Maracha, Nakapiripirit, Adjumani and Fort Portal Municipality
The results show that, while demographic dividend drivers are systematically and consciously mainstreamed in Vison 2040 and NPDII, gaps exist at sectoral and local government level development planning. This finding is consistent with the results of the certificate of compliance for the Annual Budget FY2015/16 (NPA, 2016) conducted every year to strengthen NDPII implementation towards realization of its objectives. The certificate of compliance report showed that Macro level GDP growth and per capita targets are consistent with NPDII objective of attaining a middle-income status. However, at the NDPII national strategic level, the annual budget provided to support employment creation is still below the desired targets. Similarly, major priorities under the objective for enhancing human capital development remained unfunded.
At sectoral and Ministries, Departments & agency (MDA) levels, the analysis of the certificate of expenditure report revealed that only 8 (Tourism SDP, Health, ICT, Public Administration, JLOS, Accountability, LHPUD & Energy Minerals & Petroleum) out of the 17 sectors had sector development plans (SDPs). And only 3 (Public Administration, ICT and Tourism) out of the 8 sector development plans were aligned to NDP II objectives content and time frame.
As a part of the process to standardise measures for DD mainstreaming, process of developing DD compliance criteria for assessing development plans at national, sectoral and local government levels was initiated. A draft theory of change, results framework and indicators were proposed. In the subsequent steps, the theory of change and results areas as well as indicators were presented to national stakeholders for approval. The criteria were approved and adopted as DD standardized criteria to guide mainstreaming and assessment of DD drivers in policies, plans, programmes and initiatives at all levels.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
Contents
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 04
Operational Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 05
Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 07
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 08
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Problem Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
1.2.1 Overall objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
1.2.2 Specific objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
2 PERSPECTIVE
3. Methodological Approach (Process)
3.1 Phase I Conceptualization, problem identification, synthesis of problem analysis and prioritization of the problem to be tackled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
3.1.1 Development of the research protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
3.1.2 Development of assessment criteria for evaluating DD compliance in national and local government development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
3.1.2.1 Draft tool and assessment criteria for evaluating the development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.2 Application of the tool and criteria on selected national, sectoral and local government development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4. FINDINGS
4.1 Availability of development plans at national and subnational levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.2 Planning guidelines at national and subnational levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.3 The Certificate of Compliance for 2015-16 Annual Budgets for Uganda on mainstreaming population issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.4 Extent of mainstreaming DD within overarching national development frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4.5 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in sector development plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . 16
4.6 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in Local Government Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
4.7 Expert review of findings of the draft report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
5.0 Phase II: Solution Design and Implementation: Development of a standardised national DD compliance assessment criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
5.1 Drafting the Theory of Change (TOC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Lessons Learnt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5. CONCLUSIONS
6. RECOMMENDATIONS
7. REFERENCES
ANNEXES
Annex 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Annex II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Annex III . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
RECOMENDATIONS
APPENDICES
Appendix 1: Work plan for study activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Appendix 2: Planned Study Budget for phase 1- Funding source anticipated (SPEED Project) . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Appendix 3: Questionnaire for both members and never joined/ non-members of ICOCARE scheme . . . . 33
Appendix 4: Study questionnaire: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Appendix 5: Focus Group Discussions Guide- Mobilisers and staff ICOCARE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Appendex 6: key informant interview Guide with scheme managers and providers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Appendix 7: Focus Group Discussion Guide with scheme drop outs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Appendix 8: Focus Group Discussion Guide with community mobilisers and staff of ICOBI . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Appendix 9: Key Informant Interview Guide with service provider’s managers and Administrators . . . . . 40
Appendix 10; FGD Guide with ICOCARE scheme drop outs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Appendix 11: Sample calculation and selection of respondents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
APPENDIX 5: MAP OF SHEEMA DISTRICT-STUDY AREA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
List of Tables
Table 1: Methodological Approach (steps, Methods & outputs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Table 2: Draft Assessment Criteria for Evaluating the Development plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Table 3: Approved Assessment Criteria for Evaluating Development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Table 4: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in National Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Table 5: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in Sector Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Table 6: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in District Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Table 7: Criteria for selecting the possible solution for your priority problem- Priority Matrix . . . . 29
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List of Figures
Figure 1:The current Structure of National Population Council Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Figure 2: Value Proposition for the Demographic Dividend Framework, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Figure 3:The Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) 2007 . . . . . . . . 10
Figure 4:Draft Theory of Change to guide mainstreaming the implementation of the DD drivers in Development Plans, Programmes & Initiatives at National & Subnational levels.(Adapted from Demographic transition, human capital formation, and social and economic change— A framework, Reher D.S (2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Figure 5: Priority Problem-Fish born technique analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Figure 6: Diagrammatic presentation of the methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
1INTRODUCTION
1
Recent global debates defining the agenda for Population and Development Programme of Action beyond 2014 (“ICPD Beyond 2014 Review Process,” n.d.) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (UN, 2015) have underscored the importance of harnessing the Demographic Dividend (DD) in providing an opportunity for advancing multiple SDG and targets. In 2017, the African Union (AU) endorsed a road map for realizing the DD through investments in the youth population (“AU 2017 DD ROADMAP Final - EN_2.pdf,” n.d.) as a foundation for improving the quality of life of the population through investments in human capital development, especially the youth.
The demographic dividend or demographic window of opportunity describes the economic benefit earned by a country as a result of changes in a population’s age structure (Canning et.al, 2015) due to a relatively large proportion of working age people, and effective investment made in their health, education as well as employment. The changes in age structure results from a demographic transition, which is a period when a country experiences rapid decline in child mortality, followed by decline in fertility, thus producing a “bulge” generation (Ashraf et al., 2013). The bulge ushers a country into a period of having a large number of working-age people and a smaller number of dependents. Having a large number of workers per capita gives a boost to the economy provided if there are labor opportunities provided for the workers (Karra et al., 2015)
A demographic window of opportunity is not automatic, its earned and time bound. One of the major drivers of realizing the DD is reducing the rapid fertility rate which should be done alongside implementing interventions to increase child survival and increasing girl’s education. Equally important is human capital development through quality education, skills development, and enhancing a healthy and productive labour force. Job creation as well as employment through industrialization and value addition should be guaranteed to absorb the working population.
Evidence available in Uganda (UDHS, 2016 and
UNHPC, 2014) shows that fertility is declining at a much slower rate to reduce the level of dependents for the DD to occur. In Uganda, the total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 7.1 children per woman in 1991 to 5.8 in 2014. There is thus need to rapidly reduce fertility to at least 2.2 children per woman by 2040. The persistent high fertility rates have contributed to a rapid population growth rate of 3.0 percent per year and associated age dependency ratio of 103, implying that for every 100 economically active persons, there are 103 dependents, an indicator of economic burden. Consequently, nearly half (48 %) of Uganda’s population are children below age 15 while young population below 30 years of age account for 78% of the total population. The potential of harnessing the DD lies in improving the quality of this segment of the population, the future labour force.
To realise the potential of DD in Uganda, strategic planning and preparation is required to facilitate reduction of child /youth dependency through an effective family planning program, child survival strategies and keeping girls in school at all levels. In addition, promote economic policies that take advantage of the changing population age structure to benefit from the increasing labour force. But also continuously formulate, review and implement policies that strengthen financial institutions and encourage savings to channel the rising incomes into domestic savings and investments that further fuel economic growth and development (Canning et.al, 2015).
The National Development Plan II 2015/16-2019/20 (NDPII) adopted harnessing the DD as one of the strategies for achieving the Vision 2040 development goal “to transform Uganda’s population from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years”, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) increasing from US$ 506 in 2010 to US $9,500 by 2040 (NPA, 2015). This is articulated under the human capital development pillar. It is cognizant of the importance of developing human capital especially the young population, who are a major input into sustainable and inclusive economic development.
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The FY 2015/16 Budget marked the first year of implementation of the NDPII. Therefore, government sectors, ministries, and agencies had a responsibility to operationalise the human capital development objective through strategic and systemized processes that allow a holistic approach to address the growing population and associated drivers in the sector development plans. This should further be cascaded to local government development plans and planning guidelines. However, harmonised and common understanding of what constitute the demographic dividend, how it should be cascaded in the plans and budgets is limited. This study focus on assessing the readiness and responsiveness of government development plans for 2016/2020 in providing a firm foundation and mechanisms to enhance accelerated demographic transition and realizing the demographic dividend in Uganda
1.1 Problem StatementIn-spite of the on-going initiatives on popularization of the demographic dividend concept at national and district levels, the extent which on-going initiatives have been translated into actions and interventions in plans, programmes and initiatives is not systematically documented. According to Dalton (1989), development plans remain one of the planner’s primary tools to influence future growth and development. Planning documents are indicative of the commitment of action by government authorities (Saatvika Rai, 2016). However, research in the field of policy implementation is still uncommon (McDonald et al, 2003) while there is an increasing expectation that development plans should deliver on national priorities.
The NDPII Certificate of Compliance (2016) recommends alignment to NPDII priorities of all sectors, it did not include demographic dividend specific indicators. There is need to document the extent which the demographic dividend drivers have been mainstreamed and to understand how the on-going initiatives included the DD objectives in sectoral and local government development plans. The extent the various actors (state and non-state) are aware of their roles and responsibilities is not systematically organized, coordinated or communicated. Tools to guide and assess mainstreaming of DD drivers specific to Uganda situation are not well developed.
1.2 Objectives
1.2.1 Overall objectiveThe overall objective of this study is to assess the integration of DD drivers in national, sectoral and Local Government Development Plans, programmes and initiatives.
1.2.2 Specific objectivesThe specific objectives are the following:
i. To develop criteria for assessment of DD drivers mainstreaming in development plans;
ii. To apply the criteria to selected national, sectoral and local government plans and guidelines including the 2016/17 Budget Frame Paper (BFP);
iii. To contribute to the development of national standardised DD compliance criteria for integration in the NDPII Certificate of compliance for evaluating development plans alignment with NDP objectives
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2The National Population Council (NPC) is a government institution responsible for guiding the mainstreaming of the DD drivers and other population concerns in development plans, programmes and initiatives at all levels of government (ministries, departments and agencies, local governments (LGs), including civil society organizations (CSOs), faith based organizations (FBOs), cultural Institutions, private sector and development partners.
The NPC and its secretariat, subject to the provisions under the 2014 Population Act, is headed by the Chair of the Council, a technical Director General and five directors (see Figure 1). The author holds the position of Senior National Programme Officer in the Policy, Planning and Programmes Directorate.
Figure 1:The current Structure of National Population Council Structure
National Population Council (NPC) Chair & Comittee Members
Director General
Policy, Planning, Programmes
Information & Communication
Monitoring & Evaluation
Finance & Adminstration
Family Health
Source: The National Population Council Act, 2014
NPC business and management operations are working with sectors, local governments and other partners to: (i) influence integration or mainstreaming of population variables such as the DD in strategies, programmes and development plans; (ii) ensure active participation of the population in all steps of development planning processes; (iii) ensure that specific population segments are targets of actions for development; (iv) integrate research in interactions between demographic system and social, cultural, economic systems and environment; and (v) set coherence of population policies and other development policies (social, etc.).
The NPC and the National Planning Authority (NPA) are the lead institutions for the oversight, the coordination and guiding efforts towards DD mainstreaming in development plans. The NPC has the mandate of providing technical frameworks to guide mainstreaming populations issues, including the DD. The NPA is responsible for enhancing national compliance of plans and guidelines in the overall development planning framework.
2 PERSPECTIVE
3. Methodological Approach (Process) 3The methodological approach to this study involved a mix of methods and actions. The approach followed guidelines from the Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management (FPHSM) under which this task was undertaken. The study adopted a sequential approach in addressing the objectives. Each of objective had different methods. Findings of one stage informed the subsequent one. It is structured into two phases:
• Phase I: Initial conceptualization of the problem, identification, prioritization of strategic issues to be addressed and analysis.
• Phase II: Designing the solution (or the intervention) and its implementation.
The research questions in this study are (i) how have the national, sector and LG development plans addressed the DD drivers? (ii) Have the plans explicitly taken into consideration the sector specific DD drivers in the situation analysis? (iii) How have the DD issues identified in the situation analysis been mainstreamed in sector interventions to seize the once in a lifetime opportunity of harnessing the DD for the benefit of transformation of Uganda?
The sampling of the development plans was based on availability of approved plan by NPA or Local Government Council. Four national plans: Vision 2040, NDPII, NBFP and NDPII Certificates of Compliance; Five sectoral plans: ICT, Tourism, Social Development, Health and Agriculture and Ten Local Government plans: Yumbe, Dokolo, Lwengo, Kabale, Yumbe, Moyo, Maracha, Nalapiripirit, Adjumani and Fort Portal Municipalities. The compliance study conducted by the NPA, only 8 sectors had approved plans (NPA, 2016); the rest of the sectors had either draft development plans or none. A similar pattern existed for the local governments. This affected the sampling procedure. As a result, this study utilized available plans only.
The methodological approach to the study is summarized in table 1 below and brief discussion in detail in the sections that follows.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Table 1: Methodological A
pproach (steps, Methods &
outputs)
StepsM
ethod/process
ToolsO
utput
Phase I: Initial conceptualization of the problem, identification, prioritization of strategic issues to be addressed and analysis
A) D
evelopment of the
research protocol Conducted Situation A
nalysis of (NPC) &
how it relates to health
system. Th
e purpose was to identify issues/gaps for further
assessment
Conducted Initial consultations with key individuals from
N
PC & N
PA to build consensus on the relevance of the study.
Recom
mendations m
ade informed the fram
ing of the topic and problem
analysis.o D
efinition of the Problem. W
hat is DD
, is it understood the same
way &
what is extent of m
ainstreaming in D
evelopment Plans
o Idea of developing a tool/criteria for assessing the plans conceived
o Conducted Review
of technical literature on the harnessing the dem
ographic dividend; the plan evaluation criteria, components
of a quality plan and components of planning fram
eworks.
o Gov’t Planning D
ocuments
o The 2014 R
eport on Harnessing the D
D in U
ganda
o Literature on phases of the demographic transition, global &
regional experiences on w
hat has worked and w
hat has not w
orked
o Literature on Population Situation Analysis tools (PSA
); H
ealth in all policies. These inform
ed the draft evaluation tool/criteria for assessing D
D integration in the plans
Discussion check list
Key inform
ant interviews
Desk review
using check list and google search U
RL
Problem
identified, protocol developed and approved.
Ideas and outlook of evaluation criteria checklist generated
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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B) T
o de
velo
p as
sess
men
t/ev
alua
tion
cri
teri
a fo
r mai
nstr
eam
ing
and
eval
uati
ng
DD
com
plia
nce
in n
atio
nal a
nd
loca
l gov
ernm
ent
deve
lopm
ent p
lans
The
met
hods
use
d w
ere
desk
lite
ratu
re re
view
usi
ng G
oogl
e se
arch
en
gine
.a)
R
espo
nse
Plan
ning
lite
ratu
re; Th
e ev
alua
tion
cri
teri
a th
eore
tica
l fr
amew
orks
and
pop
ulat
ion
inte
grat
ion
tool
s; G
over
nmen
t doc
umen
ts
(ND
PII,
Vis
ion
2040
; DD
Rep
ort;
DD
Roa
dmap
; ND
PII C
erti
ficat
e of
co
mpl
ianc
e; N
atio
nal B
FP)
b) S
ynth
esis
e th
e co
mm
ents
and
upd
ate
the
crite
ria
Che
cklis
t of t
heor
etic
al
fram
ewor
ks o
n pl
an e
valu
atio
ns
crite
ria,
DD
and
pop
ulat
ion
inte
grat
ion
tool
s
Expe
rts’
mee
ting
s in
clud
ing
the
acad
emic
men
tor f
rom
Uga
nda
Aid
s Co
mm
issi
on (U
AC),
Nat
iona
l Po
pula
tion
Cou
ncil
Staff
, Nat
iona
l Pl
anni
ng A
utho
rity
, Mak
erer
e U
nive
rsit
y –
Popu
lati
on a
nd
appl
ied
stat
isti
cs D
epar
tmen
t (C
PAS)
and
Exp
ert o
pini
on fr
om
Scho
ol o
f Pub
lic H
ealth
& S
PEED
te
am
DD
ass
essm
ent
crite
ria
draf
ted
and
the
pre-
test
ed
Crite
ria
and
tool
up
date
d &
fina
lised
C) T
o ap
ply
the
asse
ssm
ent c
rite
ria
to s
elec
ted
nati
onal
, se
ctor
al a
nd lo
cal
gove
rnm
ent p
lans
, pl
anni
ng g
uide
lines
in
clud
ing
2016
/17
BFP
and
ND
PII
Cert
ifica
te o
f Co
mpl
ianc
e.
• D
esk
asse
ssm
ent o
f the
dev
elop
men
t pla
ns w
as d
one
• A
naly
sis o
f the
extr
acte
d da
ta u
tilis
ed th
e fra
mew
ork f
or a
naly
sing
in
ter-
sect
oral
act
ions
in th
e Afr
ica
Reg
ion
to ex
amin
e im
plem
enti
ng
of H
ealth
in a
ll Po
licie
s by
WH
O R
egio
nal O
ffice
201
3) se
e ta
ble
of
findi
ngs.
• Th
e fir
st d
raft
of
repo
rt s
ubje
cted
to
the
NPC
/NPA
for
rev
iew
, va
lidat
ion
and
appr
oval
in a
mee
ting
at
NPC
, in
a pa
rtic
ipat
ory
proc
ess,
obs
erva
tion
s m
ade
incl
ude.
a)
App
ropr
iate
ness
cri
teri
a us
ed fo
r ass
essm
ent o
f pla
ns w
as li
mite
d in
ch
arac
teri
stic
s of
a g
ood
crite
ria.
A g
ood
crite
rion
sho
uld
be te
stab
le
(ver
ifiab
le) c
lear
(con
cise
, sho
rt, s
impl
e, p
reci
se, u
nder
stan
dabl
e,) a
nd
relia
bilit
y (c
onsi
sten
t).
b) B
ased
on
the
abov
e ob
serv
atio
ns a
gree
d to
revi
ew a
nd re
fine
the
crite
ria
to m
eet c
hara
cter
isti
cs o
f a g
ood
crite
ria.
A te
am o
f 4 re
sear
cher
s pr
ogra
mm
e offi
cers
of f
rom
NPC
an
d M
akCP
AS
appl
ied
the
crite
ria
to s
elec
ted
nati
onal
, sec
tora
l &
dist
rict
dev
elop
men
t pla
ns.
Expe
rts
mee
ting
Dat
a ex
trac
ted,
fir
st d
raft
repo
rt
pres
ente
d to
NPC
/N
PA fo
r val
idat
ion.
The
repo
rt a
ppro
ved
wit
h m
odifi
cati
on.
Phas
e II
: D
esig
ning
the
solu
tion
and
its
impl
emen
tati
on :
Dev
elop
a s
tand
ardi
sed
nati
onal
DD
com
plia
nce
asse
ssm
ent t
ool
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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To
revi
ew a
nd re
defin
e ap
prop
riat
enes
s of
DD
as
sess
men
t cri
teri
a
Thro
ugh
a pa
rtic
ipat
ory
and
cons
ulta
tive
pro
cess
wit
h se
lect
ed
seni
or te
chni
cal s
taff
from
the
NPC
, NPA
& S
PEED
sup
port
team
ad
vise
d on
the
step
s to
be
unde
rtak
en to
revi
ew D
D c
rite
ria.
i)
D
evel
opm
ent o
f DD
theo
ry o
f cha
nge.
The
purp
ose
of th
e th
eory
was
to il
lust
rate
the
path
way
s fo
r har
ness
ing
the
dem
ogra
phic
div
iden
d in
Uga
nda.
It a
lso
prov
ided
gui
danc
e re
sults
are
as fo
r int
egra
ted
DD
mul
ti-s
ecto
ral r
esul
ts fr
amew
ork
and
defin
ing
area
s fo
r ass
essm
ent.
ii)
Dev
elop
of a
DD
mul
ti-s
ecto
ral r
esul
ts F
ram
ewor
k. Th
e pu
rpos
e of
the
resu
lts fr
amew
ork
was
to fa
cilit
ate
syst
emic
and
ho
listi
c ap
proa
ch o
f sec
tora
l eng
agem
ent a
nd c
olla
bora
tion
in
mai
nstr
eam
ing
DD
dri
vers
in d
evel
opm
ent p
lans
.iii
) D
eter
min
e a
pack
age
of D
D in
dica
tors
bas
ed o
n th
e re
sults
ar
eas.
The
indi
cato
rs in
form
the
DD
ass
essm
ent c
rite
ria,
an
inpu
t to
ND
P II
com
plia
nce
asse
ssm
ent t
ool.
iv)
Dev
elop
DD
com
plia
nce
asse
ssm
ent c
rite
ria
(DD
sco
re c
ard)
v)
App
ly th
e ap
prov
ed to
ol o
n al
l tar
gete
d pl
ans.
vi)
Dev
elop
impl
emen
tati
on p
lan
on o
rien
tati
on o
f the
tool
and
DD
re
sults
fram
ewor
k.
Exp
ert O
pini
on
Che
cklis
t wit
h ar
eas
for
disc
ussi
on R
evie
w o
f con
cept
ual
unde
rpin
ning
s on
con
diti
ons
for h
arne
ssin
g th
e de
mog
raph
ic
divi
dend
suc
h as
Exi
stin
g th
eore
tica
l fra
mew
orks
on
dem
ogra
phic
tran
siti
on;
the
Com
preh
ensi
ve N
atio
nal
Dev
elop
men
t Pla
nnin
g Fr
amew
ork
(CN
DPF
); hu
man
ca
pita
l for
mat
ion
& s
ocia
l an
d ec
onom
ic c
hang
e (D
avid
S.
Reh
er, 2
011
; Eug
ene
Bard
ach,
20
12 &
Ken
t Bus
e et
.al)
Exp
ert d
iscu
ssio
n m
eeti
ngs
(NPA
, NPC
, S
ecto
ral &
Dis
tric
t Pla
nner
s m
eeti
ngs
to d
iscu
ss &
val
idat
e th
eory
of c
hang
e as
wel
l as
the
resu
lts F
W &
Indi
cato
rs)
A D
raft
Theo
ry
of C
hang
e co
nstr
ucte
d
Dra
ft D
D
inte
grat
ed re
sults
fr
amew
orks
dr
afte
d
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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3.1 Phase I Conceptualization, problem identification, synthesis of problem analysis and prioritization of the problem to be tackledThis phase covered the drafting of the study protocol, development of the criteria for assessing the plans, pretesting, approval and data collection.
3.1.1 Development of the research protocol In order to understand and identify the area of study, an organizational situation analysis of the NPC was done. The aim was to assess organization performance, understanding the factors behind the establishment of the NPC, its vision, mission, mandate and management operations. This was intended to help in the determination of the problem to study.
Institutional analysis of NPC was based on criteria adapted from the framework for analysing health system dynamics (Van Olmen et al., 2012). The criteria for assessing services provided by the NPC included timeliness, quality, continuity, existence of standard operating procedures (SOP), competences of personnel, functional coordination systems, responsiveness, workforce management and appropriate staffing levels to deliver expected services. Assessment of the management operations employed the leading and managing framework from Managers Who Lead handbook (Management Sciences for Health (Firm), 2005)A list of issues and concerns was generated in order to analyse for possible solutions:
a) Weak institutional coordination mechanisms, collaboration and identification of convergence areas at national, sectoral and local government levels associated with delays in passing the NPC Bill;
b) Limited mentoring and coaching of NPC staff on elements and processes of population integration with a view of creating a shared vision and improving work environment;
c) Limited standard operating procedures (SOPs) and adaptation of existing tools for integrating or mainstreaming population issues in development frameworks. The existing tools and SOPs were in draft format;
d) Lack of an integrated monitoring and evaluation (M&E) frameworks for measuring and assessing integration of population concerns in developing planning frameworks at national and subnational levels;
e) Limited communication tools targeting improvement of POPSEC visibility and popularization of the National Population Policy (NPP) and population programmes;
f) Lack of an institutional performance framework highlighting strategies for delivering implementation of the NPC strategic plan, NPP and National Population Action Plan;
g) Limited documentation mechanisms of achievements and lessons learnt since the POPSEC started advocacy for integration of population issues in national development frameworks.
Further synthesis of the generated issues was performed using the priority matrix criteria (Annex I) taking into account appropriateness in relation to national importance, technical and operational feasibility, contribution and support from key stakeholders, adaptability to local health policy and acceptability of the solution by the target population (See Annex I for details of the prioritisation process).
This facilitated the selection of a priority problem, which expressed as:
“Limited integration of population dynamics in development plans, programmes and initiatives, associated with limited guiding tools for mainstreaming these issues at all levels of planning.”
The priority problem was further analysed using the fish-bone tool to categorize factors influencing the problem what informed the framing of feasible solutions to be undertaken (see Annex II) The prioritized solution was the “assessment of the extent of integration of drivers of demographic dividend (DD) in development plans”.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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3.1.2 Development of assessment criteria for evaluating DD compliance in national and local government development plansThe assessment criteria is building on the components of a quality plan and indicators (drivers) based on five pillars/objectives for accelerating the harnessing of the DD in Uganda. These include existing theoretical frameworks for plan evaluations, the national planning cycle, integration of population dynamics tools and studies on DD at global, regional and national levels. Numerous resources on plan evaluation provided a basis for the development of the criteria for assessing the extent of mainstreaming DD drivers in development plans in this study. These included Bardach E. (2012) on policy analysis and development of plan assessment criteria, evolutionary models, logic models and emerging system for integrating DD issues (Kellogg W.K., 1998). In addition, the population situation analysis (PSA) principles (UNFPA, 2010), enriched by studies on the Planning Process Model adapted from Alexander (1992); and criteria for empirical plan evaluation based on rational processes, democratic participation and representation of stakeholders (Gruft and Gutstein, 1972). Furthermore, the general plan evaluation framework by Baer (1997), with over 60 criteria analysing goals, procedural consistency (involvement of multi-governments, stakeholders), implementation and feedback was considered.
Studies from Reher D.S. (2005), Baer W.C. (2011), Berke (1997), Smith and Lyles (2011) and Smith and Flatt, (2011) guided on the understanding of the institutional context for planning, planning process and components of the plans, evaluation criteria, readiness and responsiveness. This also contributed to providing a conceptual foundation on evaluation criteria and a tool for assessing the DD in the development planning processes. The UNFPA (2015) “Value proposition for the demographic dividend” which brings out the pathways for realizing the DD was consulted. This framework highlights areas for multiple intersecting investments required to earn the dividend. It defines what needs to be done if the DD is to be realized and demonstrates paths to prospect of a dividend (green path) or missed dividend (red path). This is presented in Figure 3.
Figure 2: Value Proposition for the Demographic Dividend Framework, 2015
Work-life balance policies
CSE
Health-worker training
Laws/policies on violence and discrimination
Family planning Access to SBA Health Systems strengthening
Child health investments
School
Child Marriage
Leaving School
Repeat pregnancies
Child illness & death
Maternal morbidity
Informal workInsecurity & Displacement
Insecure old-age
Employment
Adult marriage/healthy children
Security of Place
Work-life Balance
Wealth/child investment
Lifelong learning
Secure old-age
ADOLESCENT GIRL
Youth policies
Incentives to save
Social safety net policies
Life-long learning
Missed demographic dividend
Demographic Dividend
Source: UNFPA, 2015
In addition, the national planning system and levels of planning processes presented in the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF). (see Figure 4). The CNDPF was approved by the government in 2007 and it presents a synchronized and holistic approach to development planning intended to deliver the Vision 2040. The study assessed the extent DD drivers are mainstreamed and cascaded in the national vision, overall development objectives, strategic master plans and strategies for NDPII, and
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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selected sector plans, the national BFP, certificate of compliance for the annual budget FY2015/16, and broad priorities in the local government development plans. The criteria is structures to assess how each of these levels is consciously taking into account the youth bulge needs and associated drivers.
Figure 3:The Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) 2007
Source: NDPII2015/16-2019/20
Lastly, the structure of the criteria was anchored on the five pillars (drivers) for harnessing the DD in Uganda (NPA, 2014). These are (i) initiating and accelerating a demographic transition (from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility); (ii) creating a healthy population; (iii) enhancing coverage, quality and skills development (mechanisms in place for ensuring a well-educated, skilled productive and innovative workforce); (iv) accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation; and (v) enhancing good governance and accountability (the “glue” that holds everything together).
3.1.2.1 Draft tool and assessment criteria for evaluating the development plansTable 2 presents the drafted criteria, comprising the DD drivers as indicated in the NDPII and the DD Report (NPA, 2014). The structure is also building on the criteria for plan evaluation stages by Gruft and Gutstein (1972), complemented by studies from Berke and French (1994), Dalton and Burby (1994), Kaiser et al. (1995) on rational model principles. These are also in agreement with the population situation analysis (PSA) global tool for mainstreaming population interventions.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Table 2: Draft A
ssessment Criteria for Evaluating the D
evelopment plans.
AB
CD
EF
GH
I
DD
DR
IVER
S / IN
DIC
ATOR
S anchored on the pillars of
harnessing the dem
ographic divided
Does the plan
explicitly state or m
ention issues identified
in column (A
) of the situation analysis (SA
) of the developm
ent plan
Is there a specific objective
in the plan to address the issues
identified in the SA
(B)
Are the m
easure of success
explicitly stated?
M&
E Framew
ork include indicators
for issues in (A
& C)
Are there
specific interventions
to address a specific
objectives/indicators
(B & C)
Presence of annual w
ork plans (AW
Ps) w
ith activities for realization of interventions in specifies in (E)
Was there a specific
budget allocated for the im
plementation
of the specific activities in the AW
Ps as in (F)?
What w
as actually released?
What is the gap?
State general status/gaps on the D
D
drivers
State existing policy in
support of the im
plementation
of the DD
drivers/ gam
e changers in (A
)
Preliminary pretesting of the evaluation tool (table 2) show
ed that national, sectoral and local government plans w
ere providing information up to strategic
interventions. The annual plans and budgets w
ere independent of the plans presented in the output budgeting tool (OBT). It w
as recomm
ended the deletion of colum
ns F and G since they w
ere out of the scope of the study. Table 3 depicts the adjusted tool after taking into consideration the recomm
endations of the pre-test.
3.1.2.2: Refinem
ent of draft assessment criteria
Following pre-testing, a m
eeting was convened to adjust the tool and integrate recom
mendations. Table 2 show
s the final tool and criteria that were used
to extract data from the selected developm
ent plans, as listed below:
• N
ational plans: Vision 2040, N
DPII, N
BFP and ND
PII Certificates of Compliance;
• Sectoral Plans: ICT, Tourism
, Social Developm
ent, Health and A
griculture; and
• Local G
overnment Plans: Yum
be, Dokolo, Lw
engo, Kabale, Yum
be, Moyo, M
aracha, Nakapiripirit, A
djumani and Fort Portal M
unicipality.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Tabl
e 3:
App
rove
d A
sses
smen
t Cri
teri
a fo
r Eva
luat
ing
Dev
elop
men
t pla
ns
AB
CD
EF
G
DD
dri
vers
(g
ame
chan
gers
)
Expl
icit
ly s
tate
or
men
tion
issu
es
iden
tifie
d in
Co
lum
n (A
) wit
hin
the
Situ
atio
n A
naly
sis
(SA
) of
the
plan
Veri
fy a
nd
extr
act s
peci
fic
obje
ctiv
es
to a
ddre
ss
the
issu
es
men
tion
ed in
the
SA (B
)
Wha
t mea
sure
of
succ
ess
is e
xplic
itly
st
ated
in th
e pl
an?
M&
E Fr
amew
ork
incl
ude
indi
cato
rs fo
r is
sues
in (C
) – e
xtra
ct
the
indi
cato
rs a
s th
ey
are.
Veri
fy a
nd e
xtra
ct
spec
ific
inte
rven
tion
s m
enti
oned
in th
e pl
an to
add
ress
a
spec
ific
obje
ctiv
es /
in
dica
tors
(C &
D)
Stat
e ge
nera
l st
atus
/ th
e ga
ps o
n th
e D
D d
rive
rs
Stat
e ex
isti
ng
polic
y in
su
ppor
t of t
he
impl
emen
tati
on
of th
e D
D
driv
ers
/ ga
me
chan
gers
in (A
) in
the
plan
Obj
ecti
ve: T
o in
itia
te a
nd
acce
lera
te a
dem
ogra
phic
tra
nsi
tion
(fr
om h
igh
mor
tali
ty a
nd
hig
h fe
rtil
ity
to lo
w m
orta
lity
an
d lo
w fe
rtil
ity)
Evid
ence
of g
over
nmen
t eff
orts
to
addr
ess
basi
c ne
eds
and
tap
into
be
nefit
s of
a g
row
ing
yout
hful
po
pula
tion
(spe
cific
inte
rven
tion
s fo
r a c
ohor
t of y
oung
peo
ple)
.St
rate
gies
for i
mpr
ovin
g th
e in
crea
sing
siz
e of
the
wor
kfor
ce
in o
rder
to o
pen
dem
ogra
phic
w
indo
w. (
yout
h em
pow
erm
ent
prog
ram
mes
, etc
.)
Evid
ence
of g
over
nmen
t act
ions
to
incr
ease
acc
ess
to fa
mily
pl
anni
ng a
nd re
duce
unm
et n
eeds
fo
r FP
/ el
imin
atin
g ba
rrie
rs to
us
eEv
iden
ce o
f gov
ernm
ent e
ffor
ts to
pr
omot
e re
spon
sibl
e pa
rent
hood
, re
duct
ion
of a
dole
scen
t pr
egna
ncie
s an
d pr
even
tion
of
child
mar
riag
es, o
nset
of c
hild
be
arin
gH
ealt
h: C
reat
ing
a h
ealt
hy p
opul
atio
n
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Nut
riti
on a
nd fo
od s
ecur
ity
– Ev
iden
ce o
f add
ress
ing
mal
nutr
itio
n an
d m
icro
nut
rien
t de
ficie
ncie
s to
impr
ove
phys
ical
an
d co
gnit
ive
pote
ntia
lC
hild
sur
viva
l int
erve
ntio
ns (c
hild
ill
hea
lth a
nd d
eath
)G
over
nmen
t eff
orts
to p
rom
ote
a he
alth
y po
pula
tion
– h
ealth
in
itia
tive
s (m
ater
nal m
orta
lity,
m
orbi
dity
, ac
cess
to s
afe
wat
er a
nd s
anit
atio
n, m
alar
ia
prev
alen
ce, E
CD)
Educ
atio
n: E
nhan
cing
cov
erag
e, q
ualit
y an
d sk
ills
deve
lopm
ent
(Mec
hani
sms
in p
lace
for e
nsur
ing
a w
ell-e
duca
ted,
ski
lled
prod
ucti
ve a
nd in
nova
tive
wor
kfor
ce)
Mat
chin
g ed
ucat
ion
curr
icul
um
wit
h jo
b m
arke
t nee
ds
(cur
ricu
lum
revi
ew to
ens
ure
inno
vati
on, s
cien
ce, t
echn
olog
y,
entr
epre
neur
ship
and
rese
arch
)Ev
iden
ce o
f eff
orts
to in
crea
se
enro
lmen
ts a
t all
leve
ls, r
educ
tion
in
sch
ool d
ropo
uts
& k
eepi
ng g
irls
at
sch
ool,
espe
cial
ly in
sec
onda
ry
+ (d
isag
greg
ated
by
sex
and
leve
l of
edu
cati
on)
Evid
ence
of p
ost-
sch
ool s
kills
de
velo
pmen
t (fu
ncti
onal
ity
/ av
aila
bilit
y of
voc
atio
nal /
te
chni
cal i
nsti
tuti
ons)
Econ
omic
sec
tor:
Acc
eler
atin
g ec
onom
ic g
row
th, r
efor
ms,
wea
lth a
nd jo
b cr
eati
on
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Evid
ence
of m
echa
nism
s fo
r pr
omot
ing
priv
ate
savi
ngs
and
inve
stm
ent i
n pr
ivat
e se
ctor
Evid
ence
of m
echa
nism
s to
cre
ate
econ
omic
opp
ortu
niti
es fo
r the
yo
uth
and
sect
ors
wit
h hi
gh jo
b m
ulti
plie
r eff
ect.
Jobs
cre
ated
by
each
sec
tor
(dis
aggr
egat
ed b
y in
form
al a
nd
form
al s
ecto
rs)
Evid
ence
of m
easu
res
to
addr
ess
yout
h un
empl
oym
ent,
unde
rem
ploy
men
t and
cre
atio
n of
opp
ortu
niti
es fo
r the
uns
kille
d la
bour
forc
e
Gov
erna
nce:
Enh
anci
ng g
ood
gove
rnan
ce a
nd a
ccou
ntab
ility
– (t
he “g
lue”
that
hol
ds e
very
thin
g to
geth
er)
Mec
hani
sms
for fi
scal
gov
erna
nce,
eff
ecti
ve a
nd e
ffici
ent s
ervi
ce
deliv
ery
(hea
lth, e
duca
tion
, etc
.)
Enha
ncem
ent o
f Lea
ders
hip
and
stew
ards
hip,
incl
udin
g in
ters
ecto
ral c
oord
inat
ion
and
over
sigh
t
3.2
App
lica
tion
of t
he t
ool a
nd c
rite
ria
on s
elec
ted
nati
onal
, sec
tora
l and
loca
l gov
ernm
ent
deve
lopm
ent
plan
sFo
llow
ing
the
pre-
test
ing,
val
idat
ion
and
appr
oval
, the
tool
was
adm
inis
tere
d by
a te
am o
f fou
r te
chni
cal s
taff
from
the
NPC
, the
NPA
and
the
Mak
erer
e U
nive
rsit
y Ce
ntre
for P
opul
atio
n St
udie
s and
App
lied
Stat
isti
cs (M
ak C
PSA
S). Th
e te
am co
nduc
ted
desk
revi
ew a
nd co
nten
t ana
lysi
s to
extr
act d
ata
from
the
sele
cted
dev
elop
men
t pla
ns. Th
e D
D d
rive
rs in
form
ed th
e as
sess
men
t cri
teri
a an
d tr
ansf
orm
ed in
to a
che
cklis
t for
dat
a ex
trac
tion
. Th
e se
ctor
al a
nd lo
cal
gove
rnm
ent
deve
lopm
ent
plan
s an
d pl
anni
ng g
uide
lines
wer
e re
view
ed t
o as
cert
ain
whe
ther
the
y ha
ve p
rovi
ded
guid
ance
for
cons
ciou
s m
ains
trea
min
g po
pula
tion
con
cern
s in
the
plan
ning
pro
cess
. The
findi
ngs
are
pres
ente
d in
Sec
tion
4 o
f thi
s R
epor
t.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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44. FINDINGS Analysis of data extracted from the development plans adapted the methodology used in WHO report on inter-sectoral actions for Health in all Policies (WHO, 2013). For the plan to be scored as having integrated or addressed the identified aspects of the DD, there should have been explicit consideration of the DD drivers in the situation analysis, objectives, strategies and/or interventions and indicators of measurement in the plans as in table 2. The coverage (in percentage * representing a weight of 20%) was based on the consideration that a national plan explicitly took into account some or all aspects of the DD drivers in its situation analysis.
4.1 Availability of development plans at national and subnational levelsThe NPA is mandated to supervise planning across the country. At national strategic level, the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (see Figure 4) is in place defining the long (LTEF) and medium (MTEF) terms development goals. At the apex, there is the National Vision, realized through the implementation of the overall ten-year development plan (LTEF) which will be achieved through the implementation of serialized five-year development plans (MTEF) – the National Development Plans (NDP). These NDP are further implemented through five-year sector master plans and strategies implemented through annualized plans and budgets at sectoral and lower local government levels. The continuum of planning and specific objectives for each layer is well laid out and documented. The NBFP is in place and has explicitly provided for strategies for accelerating the harnessing of the DD. However, the extent to which the budget proposal is translated into actual releases for implementation of the DD drivers related strategies is not known. Further research can be commissioned to further study this aspect.
The assessment of the Certificates of Compliance for 2015-16 Annual Budgets for Uganda reported that only eight (Tourism; Energy and Mineral Development; Health; Information, Communication and Technology; Public Administration; Legislature; Lands, Housing Planning and Urban Development; and Accountability) sectors out of seventeen (17)
had an approved sector development plan (NPA, 2016). The Education and Sports, one of the most critical sectors facilitating the harnessing of the DD, was reported in the Certificate of Compliance as having no plan. At local government level, only Fort Portal Municipality had an approved plan. The local government plans analysed in this study were plans approved by the Council at District level. Limited availability of development plans at the start of financial years’ compromises mainstreaming of and compliance to the DD drivers.
4.2 Planning guidelines at national and subnational levelsThe sector and local government planning guidelines provide guidance to planning authorities by setting out a framework within which development plans will achieve high standards in how they set out their aims and objectives; how they are produced; how they are presented; how they are implemented and monitored.
We observed that the sector and local government planning guidelines are in place and both guidelines have provided for interagency planning and coordination mechanisms for addressing population as a cross cutting issue. Sector technical working groups are proposed in the plans to ensure harmonized and coordinated planning, monitoring and evaluation. However, the sectors have not explicitly provided key interventions or indicators for mainstreaming the DD drivers beyond recognition of population as a crossing issue.
4.3 The Certificate of Compliance for 2015-16 Annual Budgets for Uganda on mainstreaming population issuesThe Certificate of Compliance is a tool used to assess alignment of sectoral plans and budgets with the NDP priorities. The Certificate of Compliance for FY 2015-16 indicated some of the aspects of DD drivers that were included in the approved and draft plans. These included:
i) Mass treatment of malaria; ii) Comprehensive skills development;
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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iii) Establishment of centres of excellence by region at post-secondary levels;iv) Recentralizing the inspection of schools;v) Formulation and implementation of a policy to rationalize fees for private primary schools;vi) Implementation of a policy to have a governmental primary school per parish;vii) Promotion of “green jobs” and a fair labour market;viii) Women Entrepreneurship Programme;ix) Strengthening safeguards, safety and health at workplaces; and x) Strengthening the capacity of the Equal Opportunities Commission.
Although these aspects have been considered in the plans, they have either remained underfunded or received very limited budget releases. At the launch of the NBFP 2016/17, the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to Treasury, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) in 2016, declared that “a middle-income status can only be attained if the issue of population growth rate is courageously addressed”; yet, the areas addressing population growth persistently remain underfunded. The Director for Planning at the NPA reiterated the need for a systemic approach to mainstreaming the DD in the planning chain at all levels. This is to enhance tapping into the potential and anticipated benefit of rapidly increasing population of young people, which contribute to about 78 percent of Uganda’s population (labour force).
4.4 Extent of mainstreaming DD within overarching national development frameworksThe analysis of the national plans contents has revealed significant consideration of DD drivers. Apart from enhancing good governance, each of the other DD indicators were addressed majorly in the human capital development objective. Table 3 shows the percentage coverage of inclusion of DD drivers is the plans studied.
Table 4: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in National Development Plans for Uganda
Demographic Dividend Drivers
National Development Plans
Vision 2040
National Development
Plan
Budget Framework
Paper
Initiating and accelerating a demographic transition * * *
Creating a healthy population * * *Enhancing coverage, quality of education and skills development * * *
Accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation * * *
Enhancing good governance and accountability * *Percentage (%) 100 100 80
A weight of 20% is given to a star *
4.5 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in sector development plans for UgandaTable 4 presents performance of the selected sectors regarding extent of mainstreaming DD drivers in their plans and strategies. It is expected that what is prioritized in national plans is cascaded into sector and the district development plans for systemic action and implementation. The percentage coverage
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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in table 4 is based on consideration that a sector plan explicitly took into account some or all aspects of the DD drivers in their situation analysis, developed an intervention, provided implementation and monitoring mechanisms to address the identified challenge in relation to situation analysis section of the plan, the NDPII and the BFP objectives.
Table 5: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in Sector Development Plans for Uganda
Demographic Dividend DriversSector Development Plans
HealthSocial
DevelopmentAgriculture Tourism ICT
Initiating and accelerating a demographic transition * - - - -
Creating a healthy population * * * - -
Enhancing coverage, quality and skills development * * * * -
Accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation - * * * *
Enhancing good governance and accountability - * - - *
Percentage (%) 60 80 60 40 40A weight of 20% is given to a star *.
Table 4 shows that 80% of the DD drivers are consciously included in the social development sector development plan while ICT and Tourism plans were estimated at 40%. It is noted that the Health, Agriculture and Social development sectors plans demonstrated consideration for demographic transition acceleration, creating a healthy population and skills enhancement in their sector situation analysis and priority interventions. The DD driver on the economy received the most consideration (80%) across all sectors while accelerating demographic transition (20%) was the least.
4.6 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in Local Government Development Plans for UgandaEight local government and one municipality development plans were considered for analysis. Table 5 presents the percentage coverage of selected DD drivers inclusion in the selected district development plans. The percentage coverage was based on consideration that a district plan explicitly considered some or all aspects of the demographic dividend driver in the district situation analysis and other elements of the plan described in this study.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Table 6: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in District Development Plans for Uganda
DD drivers Yumbe Moyo Maracha Kabale Lwengo Dokolo Nakapiripirit AdjumaniFort Portal
MunicipalityInitiating and accelerating a demographic transition
* * * * - * * - *
Creating a healthy population
- * - * * * - * *
Enhancing coverage, quality and skills development
- * * - - * - - -
Accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation
* * * * - - - * *
Enhancing good governance and accountability
* - - * - - - - -
Percentage (%)
60 80 60 80 20 60 20 40 60
A weight of 20% is given to a star *.
Results from Table 5 indicate that Moyo and Kabale Districts have the highest percentage (80%) in demonstrating the DD indicators in their development plans. Nakapiripirit and Lwengo have the lowest percentage (20%) in demonstrating the same. It is surprising that Nakapiripirit, which has benefited from a UNFPA support country programme over the past 10 years, ranked lowest. The same would be expected for Lwengo which is a fairly urban district with city proximity. Further research is encouraged to understand the underlying causes for the poorly performing districts.
The study revealed that while mainstreaming was well done in the overall national planning documents and integrated in strategic objectives, there are still limitations at sectoral and local government levels. Even with the planning guidelines in place, clarity of what needs to be mainstreamed and supporting to facilitate the mainstreaming may still lack among the planners at national and sub national levels. The Certificate of Compliance for Assessment of the Alignment of Sectoral and Local Government strategies did not have specific criteria for assessing the mainstreaming of the DD drivers, which is one of the key strategies under the human capital development pillar. This could partly explain poor performance in mainstreaming of DD drivers, since it is not among the mandatory indicators being considered for compliance assessment.
4.7 Expert review of findings of the draft reportA draft report of this study was presented to the NPC, NPA, SPEED Project experts and assigned mentor from the FPHSM to validate and endorse the findings. With further subjection of the report to experts’
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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opinions, there was recognition of important findings articulated in the report. However, the experts noted limitations in the tool and criteria used for assessment and recommended the development of a standardized national assessment framework. Through a participatory process in a one-day workshop held at NPC, the following observations were made: -
a) That the defined assessment criteria used in the study lacked appropriateness criteria, was limited in characteristics of a good criteria. A good criterion should be testable (verifiable) clear (concise, short, simple, precise, understandable,) and reliability (consistent). The broad DD drivers/objective areas were not specific enough to ensure reliability and comparability.
The experts panel recommended that, one of the contribution of this study should be development of the standardized national criteria for evaluating extent of compliance of development plans in respect to mainstreaming DD drivers. The expert team advised on the steps to be undertaken as follows: -
i) Development of DD theory of change. The purpose of the theory was to illustrate the pathways for harnessing the demographic dividend in Uganda and provide guidance on results areas for integrated DD multi-sectoral approach
ii) Develop of a DD multi-sectoral results Framework. The purpose of the results framework was to facilitate systemic and holistic approach of sectoral engagement and collaboration in mainstreaming DD drivers in development plans.
iii) Determine a package of DD indicators based on the results areas. The indicators inform the DD assessment criteria, an input to NDP II compliance assessment tool.
iv) Develop DD compliance assessment criteria (DD score card)
v) Apply the approved tool on all targeted plans.
vi) Develop implementation plan on orientation of the tool and DD results framework.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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5 5.0 Phase II: Solution Design and Implementation: Development of a standardised national DD compliance assessment criteriaA dynamic hypothesis was developed, stating that development of appropriate standardised DD compliance criteria is more likely to enhance effective integration of DD and assessment of population concerns in planning frameworks.
Initial steps have been taken in this direction. These included the development of a DD theory of change showing the interfaces, interactions and mechanisms of mainstreaming DD drivers. The guiding principle is the categorization of key results areas and indicators to guide DD multi-sectoral programming across sectors. The ultimate goal is to inform assessment compliance criteria for mainstreaming DD drivers. Once adopted guide development the DD assessment criteria or scorecard, an input to the certificate of compliance for NDP.
For the purpose of this FPHSM, only the draft theory of change is presented. The next steps were carried forward by the NPA, in partnership with NPC with support from UNFPA. These include experts meeting to discuss, validate and concretize key results areas (game changers), specific inter-sectoral interventions and indicators. In addition, finalize the DD compliance criteria for evaluating the plans, disseminate and orient government planners on the tools.
5.1 Drafting the Theory of Change (TOC)The drafted DD Theory of Change is a dynamic logical and interactive framework which illustrates pathways for harnessing the DD in Uganda. It facilitates operationalization of DD drivers in national and decentralized levels through annual planning and budgeting processes as per the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF-see Figure 3). It demonstrates organised strategic DD drivers described in vision 2040, the NDPII and DD road map; that require to be mainstreamed into Sector and Local-level interventions and budget frameworks taking advantage of the Program-Based Budgeting approach.
It shows multi-sectoral broad interventions and strategies in relevant sectors that will promote stronger inter-linkages in the planning process and coordinated response that will contribute to the eventual realization of the demographic dividend. The cascading of results can be achieved by developing concrete DD result areas, building consensus or agreeing on the indicators that will define and measure success, and developing compliance criteria to guide self-assessment and peer review as well as external evaluation. The theory of change explains four big results categorized under four major objectives. These are:
i) To transform the age structure and create a youth bulge – this objective aims at bringing about a shift from a broad-based to a narrow-based age pyramid through a rapid fertility decline. The specific actions will include popularizing the benefits of small family size; delaying onset of sexual activities among adolescents in preference to education and career development; empowering couples to have the number of children they really desire; and addressing the unmet need for family planning, especially for long-acting and permanent methods.
ii) To accelerate morbidity and mortality decline – under this objective, sectors are expected to facilitate planned mortality decline through: enabling women to properly space their children to reduce infant and child mortality; promoting proper nutrition for all; promoting environmental sanitation and hygiene; and reducing maternal mortality by enabling women avoid pregnancies in the high risk categories of too early, too many, too close and too late
iii) To develop a competitive human capital – this objective has three dimensions which contribute to human capital’s productivity. Sectors are expected to play different but complementary and mutually
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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reinforcing roles. While the human resource is our most valuable resource, turning it into a competitive human capital dictates that that human resource must be: first, a healthy population (void of childhood illnesses, with healthy styles, proper nutrition, and avoiding unwanted and mistimed pregnancies). Secondly, the human resource must be properly educated – ensuring that all children and adolescents acquire the full basic education as expected through enrolling all children in school, provision of quality education with proper curriculum, providing age appropriate information to school children to handle lifecycle and social challenges and remain in school. Finally, the human resource must be appropriately skilled to take advantage of the employment opportunities that will be created in the economy. This way, the human capital will be the main engine of growth propelling productivity and innovation.
iv) To expand equitable opportunities for growth and gainful employment especially females- The pursuit of the above objectives is enshrined within a general pursuit of an improved governance environment. Through the improved governance nexus, the country will be able to commit to:a) Acceleration of descent job creation;b) Enhancement of institutional accountability and improved service delivery.c) Address cross cutting areas such as early childhood development (ECD) as a critical input to
healthy and educated population. ECD boosts a firm foundation for enhancing the human capital development. Similarly, addressing attitude, culture and other contextual factors in order to influence the population into a consciously productive mind-set to achieve the DD. Lastly, promote advocacy for use and sustainable consumption and management of natural resources, a critical input for the economic pillar and other developmental processes.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
22
Figu
re 4
:Dra
ft Th
eory
of C
hang
e to
guid
e mai
nstr
eam
ing t
he im
plem
enta
tion
of t
he D
D d
rive
rs in
Dev
elop
men
t Pla
ns, P
rogr
amm
es &
Init
iati
ves a
t Nat
iona
l &
Sub
nati
onal
leve
ls.(
Ada
pted
from
Dem
ogra
phic
tran
siti
on, h
uman
capi
tal f
orm
atio
n, a
nd so
cial
and
eco
nom
ic ch
ange
— A
fram
ewor
k, R
eher
D.S
(201
1)
Impr
oved
qua
lity
of li
fe o
f the
peo
ple
(Atta
in M
iddl
e In
com
e S
tatu
s in
204
0)
Incr
ease
d ea
rnin
gs, s
avin
gs &
GD
P pe
r cap
ita
(har
ness
ed D
D)
Com
petit
ive
& p
rodu
ctiv
e la
bour
forc
e in
crea
sed
Heal
thy,
Edu
cate
d &
Appr
opria
tely
Ski
lled
Wor
kfor
ce P
opul
atio
n
Cha
nge
in A
ge S
truct
ure
(You
th b
ulge
)
Hum
an C
apita
l Cre
ated
(Hea
lthy,
S
kille
d, In
nova
tive
Pop
ulat
ion
&
Exp
ertis
e
Unp
lann
ed P
regn
anci
es re
duce
d
Incr
ease
d A
ge
at M
arria
ge &
A
ge a
t Firs
t B
irth
Red
uced
U
nmet
N
eed
of F
P
Gro
wth
driv
ers
A
gric
ultu
re
Man
ufac
turin
g
Tour
ism
Tr
ade
M
iner
al, O
il &
Gas
S
ervi
ces
(ICT,
Te
leco
ms,
H
otel
s &
Publ
ic
Serv
ice
Infra
stru
ctur
e
Roa
ds, W
orks
&
Tran
spor
t
Wat
er
Ener
gy &
Min
eral
de
vt
Com
mun
icat
ions
Serv
ices
Indu
stry
Pl
anne
d U
rban
izat
ion
enfo
rced
Pl
anne
d Se
ttlem
ent &
Se
rvic
es
Impr
oved
Sa
nita
tion
& W
aste
M
anag
emen
t
Phys
ical
Pla
nnin
g
Red
uced
Mor
talit
y es
peci
ally
of C
hild
ren
En
sure
Chi
ld
Surv
ival
Long
er P
rodu
ctiv
e Li
fe
Ac
cess
to B
asic
& T
ertia
ry
Educ
atio
n
Prim
ary
& Se
cond
ary
Fo
rmal
Ski
lling
(Ter
tiary
&
Expa
ndin
g Bu
sine
ss, T
echn
ical
Vo
catio
nal T
rain
ing
& Sk
ills
Dev
elop
men
t)
Non
-For
mal
Ski
lling
– R
etoo
ling,
ap
pren
tice,
Early
Tal
ent I
dent
ifica
tion
&
Dev
elop
men
t
Educ
atio
n Sy
stem
Stre
ngth
ened
C
urric
ulum
Rev
iew
&D
evel
opm
ent
H
uman
Res
ourc
es
Inst
ruct
iona
l & E
valu
atio
n M
ater
ials
Ph
ysic
al In
frast
ruct
ure
In
crea
se in
vest
men
ts in
Sci
ence
, Te
chno
logy
, Eng
inee
ring,
m
athe
mat
ics
& In
nova
tions
Ad
opt a
life
cou
rse
appr
oach
to
lear
ning
(Val
ue c
hain
ana
lysi
s)
Labo
r Mar
ket O
bser
vato
ry
R
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Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
23
Lessons LearntThe most significant learning is beyond classroom teaching.
I have learnt the power of influencing policy by working through other people. During this fellowship I received regular access to some of the most influential and great personalities and technical leadership from mentors who supported me both technically and financially. The mentorship and coaching from these experts and catalytic funding from SPEED and UNFPA were very fundamental in facilitating an enabling environment for increased appreciation and understanding of the demographic dividend concept.
The ability to network with countless leaders and individuals allowed me to build relationships that will continue throughout my career. I have learnt the importance of expert opinion in guiding the fellowship.
It is rare for academic material to translate into policy, programming and planning. Currently, this study on DD has been translated directly into budgeting and funding for population programs. The results being referenced at international level in different international meetings is a surprise.
The fellowship has inspired me to follow a new path of implementation research, ignited my interest to pursue a PhD in policy analysis and multi-sectoral collaboration to advance population issues. The focus is narrowed to mainstreaming the demographic dividend drivers in national development plans including sectors and local governments
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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55. CONCLUSIONSThe DD TOC that is proposed in this study contribute to understanding how DD indicators can be mainstreamed in planning and implementation frameworks and/or strategies. This study assessed the extent of mainstreaming the DD drivers into national, sectoral and local government development plans.
The findings indicated a strong evidence of conscious mainstreaming of DD drivers in the National Vision and the NDPII. However, the extent of DD mainstreaming in the selected sectoral and local government plans is still weak. These findings are consistent with the NDP Certificate of Compliance Study Report 2016.
Based on the findings of the study, experts recommended further review of the criteria, proposing the development of a national standardized criteria to assess mainstreaming of DD drivers in the development plans. Once adopted, the criteria should be applied to all sectoral and local government plans to collect benchmarks and baseline information on the status of mainstreaming and implementing the DD drivers in 2016-2020 development plans and budgets.
Limitations of the studyFirstly, the assumption was that all sectors and local governments had approved development plans for the period 2016-2020. Through a compliance study conducted by the NPA, only 8 sectors had approved plans; the rest of the sectors had either draft development plans or none. A similar pattern existed for the local governments. This affected the sampling procedure. As a result, this study utilized available plans only.
Secondly, DD is multi-sectoral, involving extensive consultation with key partners and validation of major processes. This affected speed and time for completion of this assignment. The objectives of this study have not fully been achieved, work is still in progress. The preliminary findings been discussed and are contributing to the process of developing a standardized criteria and indicators. A theory of change, result areas and indicators have been drafted due for review by national and district planners.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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66. RECOMMENDATIONSUganda, therefore, needs to quickly put together a systematic process to support mainstreaming of DD drivers and oversee their implementation at all levels if harnessing of the DD is to be achieved. The following recommendations are proposed for taking forward the findings from this study. These recommendations are categorized under national and local government levels, and study next steps.
National Level:1) The NPA and the NPC with support from the UNFPA facilitate the process of reviewing TOC, finalizing
the DD multi-sectoral results framework and indicators. This process was concluded, DD compliance criteria and scorecard as inputs to the National Development Plan Certificate of Compliance tool has been done.
2) Finalize the development of a step-by-step guide (handbook) to operationalize the DD drivers in decentralized planning:
a) Conduct a technical working group discussion with the NPC and the NPA to finalize the TOC, results areas, indicators and validation exercise;
b) Conduct a retreat with Expert colleagues from NPA, NPC, UBOS, MakSPH, and MUK-CPAS to review the TOC and monitoring framework. Define terms of reference for a review team.
c) Present the validated TOC to the NPA for endorsement
d) NPA/NPC should facilitate the use and application of the framework in ongoing planning for mainstreaming of DD drivers into sector plans. The specific activities could include:
i) Dissemination of the DD TOC;ii) Capacity development of planners/other users of the handbook;
iii) Resource mobilization for implementation and monitoring of the multi-sectoral results framework;
iv) Identification of stakeholders;
v) Definition of roles and responsibilities of stakeholders.
3) The NPC and the NPA, with the support from the UNFPA, facilitate multi-sectoral collaboration, establish and institutionalize coordination mechanisms to follow up for annual status review, and planning for DD drivers’ implementation. This includes providing guidance to sectors and local governments to institutionalize DD mainstreaming within the annual budget and planning processes
Sub national Level4) The NPC and the NPA could support District local governments to undertake annual status review and
planning for DD drivers mainstreaming into LG Development plans, including resource mobilization and allocation, and implementation
Next steps with the study findings1) Conduct stakeholder’s dialogue meeting to validate the TOC, results and indicators and make proposals
on roles and responsibilities of stakeholders.
3) Work with NPA, NPC and the SPEED Project to produce a Policy Brief on the DD.
3) Prepare an abstract for an international conference on the TOC.
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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77. REFERENCESAshraf, Q.H., Weil, D.N., Wilde, J. (2013) The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth. Popul. Dev. Rev. 39, 97–130. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00575.x
Africa Union (2017) DD ROADMAP Final - EN_2.pdf, n.d. Available on Internet accessed on https://www.africa-youth.org/new...au-roadmap-2017.../au-2017-dd-roadmap-final-e...
Baer W.C. (1997) General Plan Evaluation Criteria? Approach to Making Better Plans Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol.63, No. 3
Bardarch E. (2012) A practical guide for policy analysis: the eightfold path to more effective problem solving / — 4th ed; University of California, Berkeley
Becker, G. (1960) An Economic Analysis of Fertility in Universities. National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries: Princeton University Press, pp 209-31.
Becker, G. (1981) A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Becker J. and Johnston D. (2000) Planning and Policy for earthquake hazards in New Zealand, Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Paper No 1.04.01
Berke P. and Conroy M.M. (2000): Are we planning for sustainable Development? An evaluation of 30 comprehensive Plans, American Planning Association. Journal of the American Planning Association
Birdsall, N., Kelley, A., and Sinding, S. eds (2003). Population Matters: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. pp. 165-197. Oxford University Press.
Buse K., Nicholas Mays and Gill Walt (2005) Making Health Policy Maidenhead; New York, NY: Open University Press, - Understanding public health
Bloom, D. and Canning, D. (2000) The Health and Wealth of Nations Science 287: 1207-1209
Bloom, D., Canning, D., and Malaney, P. (2000) Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. Population and Development Review. Vol. 26, supp., pp 257-290
Bloom, D., Canning, D., and Sevilla, J. (2001) The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper 8587.
Bloom, D., Mahal, A., Sevilla, J., and River (2001), AIDS and Economics, Path Associates
Bloom, D. and Canning, D. and Jaypee Sevilla (2001). Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth, and the Demographic Transition
Bloom, David E., Patricia H. Craig, and Pia N. Malaney. (2001). The Quality of Life in Rural Asia. Oxford University Press.
Canning, David J.; Jobanputra, Sangeeta Raja; Yazbeck, Abdo S (2015). Africa’s demographic transition: dividend or disaster? Africa development forum. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/131891468179371220/Africa-s-demographic-transition-dividend-or-disaster
Dalton L, C. (1989) Emerging Knowledge about Planning Practice Research :Journal of Planning Education and Research , Research Article; https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X8900900103
Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2010) Uganda National Vision 2040
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Government of Uganda, National Population Council (2010) The National Population Policy Action Plan (2011-2015)
Government of Uganda, National Population Council (2014) The National Population Council Act
Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2014) Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: Accelerating Socioeconomic Transformation in Uganda
Government of Uganda, Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2014) The National Housing and Population Census
Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2015) The Second National Development Plan 2015/16-2019/20
Government of Uganda, National Population Council (2018) Harnessing Uganda’s Demographic Dividend: Evidence from National Transfer Accounts
Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2016) The Certificate of Compliance for the Annual Budget FY2015/16
ICPD Beyond 2014 Review Process [WWW Document], n.d. URL /events/icpd-beyond-2014-review-process (accessed 1.11.19).
Karra, M., Canning, D., Wilde, J., (2015). A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa (Working Paper No. 0315). University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
Lorange Peter and Vancil F. Richard, (1976): How to Design a Strategic Planning System
https://hbr.org/1976/09/how-to-design-a-strategic-planning-system
Management Sciences for Health (Firm) (Ed.), (2005). Managers who lead: a handbook for improving health services. Management Sciences for Health, Cambridge, Mass.
Meyerson R. (2012) A tool for evaluating plan quality of local government emergency management response plans: A paper submitted to the faculty of The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in
partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Public Administration.
Norton,R.K. (2005) More and Better Local Planning: State-Mandated Local Planning in Coastal North Carolina, Journal of the American Planning Association, 71:1, 55-71, DOI: 10.1080/01944360508976405
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2013) Creating and Capitalizing on the Demographic Dividend for Africa, Industrialization for Emerging Africa.www.uneca.org
UN Commission on Population and Development (1994) International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Programme of Action
United Nations (2013) Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals Fourth Session of the General Assembly. Washington DC, USA
UNFPA, UNDESA, UN-HABITAT, IOM (2013): Population Dynamics in the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Report of the Global Thematic Consultation on Population Dynamics
United Nations Population Fund Inter Divisional Working Group on the DD (2015): A value Proposition for Demographic Dividend
United Nations Population Fund (2010): Population Situation Analysis: A Conceptual and Methodological Guide
Reher D, S (2011) Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition: Population and
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Development Review 37 Supplement 11-33
Saatvika Rai (2016) The Politics of Climate Adaptation- Submitted to the graduate degree program in Political Science and the Graduate Faculty of the University of Kansas in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Van Olmen, J., Criel, B., Van Damme, W., Marchal, B., Van Belle, S., van Dormael, M., Hoerée, T., Pirard, M., Kegels, G., (2012). Analysing health systems dynamics. A framework.
WHO Regional Office (2013) Inter-sectoral actions of Health in all Policies
Yan Song, Chaosu Li, Robert Olshansky, Yang Zhang & Yu Xiao (2017): Are we planning for sustainable disaster recovery? Evaluating recovery plans after the Wenchuan earthquake, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 60:12, 2192-2216, DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2017.1282346
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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ANNEXESAnnex 1 Table 7: Criteria for selecting the possible solution for your priority problem
- Priority Matrix
Criteria R
ank
Priority A
ctions
Develop
monitoring
and evaluation fram
ework
for m
easuring integration of population in developm
ent fram
ework
Review
existing tools
for integration and com
plete those in draft form
(SOPs)
at programm
e and
managem
ent level
Mentoring and
coaching of NPC
staff on elem
ents and procedure of population
integration with
few of creating a
shared vision and im
proving work
climate
Strengthen institutional
coordination and collaboration at
national, sectoral and local governm
ent level through establishm
ent of coordination
mechanism
s and identification of
convergence areas
Develop
comm
unication tools targeting
towards
improvem
ent of N
PC visibility,
popularisation of the policy
Develop
institutional perform
ance fram
ework
highlighting strategies for
delivering im
plementation
of the NPC
strategic plan, N
PPAP &
Policy
Docum
entation of achievem
ents and lessons
learnt since the N
PC started advocacy for integration
of population issues in national
development
framew
orksSupply capacity:
technical feasibility, operational feasibility
(which includes
existent and actual possibility
of mobilising
resources).
23
13
32
3
Acceptability of
the solution you propose by the
population
33
33
33
3
Contribution and support from
key stakeholders
22
22
22
2
Adaptability to
local health policy3
32
21
11
Total Score10
118
109
89
8
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Annex II Figure 5: Priority Problem-Fish born technique analysis
Policies (Rules and regulations)
Legal Mandate was still questionable due to delayed passing of NPC bill
Proposed council too big because of involving every relevant SH on the membership (Cultural, Religious, Parliament, Interest groups, Executive etc.)
Processes and Procedures (Standards & Equipment)
Limited SOPs (Integration guidelines, Monitoring & evaluation tools
Limited funds to facilitate the activities
Over reliance on the donor and conflicting objectives Obstacle/Problem
Limited integration of population dynamics in development plans, programmes and initiatives, associated with limited guiding tools for mainstreaming these issues at all levels of planning
Environment (Stakeholders)
Weak institutional collaboration Not aware how pop issues
affect them Limited popularization of
population concerns at sectoral level
Limited budget due unclear legal framework
People (Knowledge, skills, feedback, motivation, support)
Limited understanding of the mandate & sticking to it
Not aligned & mobilized to a shared vision
Weak orientation on strategic direction
Poor working climate and organizational culture (not clear on roles and deliberate effort to mentor and motivate staff)
Oversight & guidance roles (No board)
Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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Annex IIIFigure 6: Diagrammatic presentation of the methodology
Idea of developing a tool/ criteria for assessing the plans
Literature on evaluation of plans & quality
Lit. -phases of the demographic transition, global & regional experiences on what has worked and what has not worked
Lit. on Population Situation Analysis tools; Health in all policies
Gov’t Planning Documents
Situation Analysis of (NPC) & how it relates to HS and Protocol Dev’t
Consultations with NPC- Identification & selection of the Problem using Fish bone
Definition of the Prob. What is DD, Is it understood the same way & what is extent of mainstreaming in Dev’t Plans
Draft Evaluation
Tool
Plan Selections
Pretesting report
synthesized
Applied on national &
district plans
Tool Updated
Evaluated the plans
Expert Opinions
Draft DD Theory (TOC) of Change conceived
Multi-sectoral Results FW & Indicators
Expert Discussions (NPC, NPA & Sectoral & district Planner- validate
TOC, results & Indicators
DD Compliance Assessment Criteria & Planning tool
Evaluate Target plans, Baseline Data & Implementation FW
DD Score Card
Synthesize comments
Assessment Report | The Experience of ICOBI Community Health Insurance Scheme In Rural Uganda February 2019
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Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019
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The Supporting Policy Engagement for Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda is a 5 year partnership supported by European Union that started in 2015. The partnership comprises Makerere University School of Public Health (Lead Agency), Uganda National Health Consumers’ Organization (UNHCO), Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), National Planning Authority (NPA), Institute of Tropical Medicine (ITM) Antwerp Belgium and Human Science Research Council (HSRC), South Africa.
SPEED Brief
For details about SPEEDMakerere University School of Public Health, College of Health SciencesLevel 3, School of Public Health Building, Mulago Hospital ComplexOffice: Room 323, MakSPH Building Website: speed.musph.ac.ug Email: [email protected]
Tel: +256 772-509316 @SPEED4UHC @SPEED4UHC