Texas’s Educational Challenge: Demographic Dividend or Bust?
Marta Tienda Princeton University
Outline • Context: Galloping Population
– Propitious conditions for harnessing dividend
• Education Indicators and Trends – K-12: Challenges & Opportunities – Higher Education: Swimming Upstream
• Implications for 10-Gallon Economy – Future Labor Force Quality – Aging Anglo Workforce
Texas Population Growth: 1970-2010
Year Inter-decade % Change
Texas Population
(‘000)
Texas U.S. # U.S. Representatives
1970 11,197 24 1980 14,222 27.0 11.4 27 1990 16,987 19.4 9.8 30 2000 20,852 22.8 13.2 32 2010 25,145 20.6 9.7 36
http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-08.pdf
Changes in Population Composition, 1980-2010: U.S. and Texas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1990 2000 2010
US-White
Texas -White
US-Black
Texas-Black
US-Latino
Texas-Latino
Texas: Majority Minority
%
Latinos and 10-Gallon Economy • “The future of the nation is inextricably linked to the
…Hispanic community.” WHIEEH, 2014
• “The challenge that Texas faces is to maintain or accelerate recent improvements in educational attainment of Hispanics in the state.” You & Potter, 2014
• “Texas…must increase college success among fast-growing groups…including …low-income and first generation students and students of color.”Lumina 2012
• “The Latino future is the future of [Texas]….but what kind of future will it be?” Murdock, 2010
Answer: Depends on Investments in Education
U.S. Age-Education Attainment Pyramids
1970
Source: http://www.sciencemag.org/site/special/population/1206964-lutz-f1.xhtml
2010
Texas 2010 Age Pyramids: Whites and Latinos
White Latinos
600,000 400,000 200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+Aging White
600,000 400,000 200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000
Source: Texas State Data Center and the Center for Health Statistics, Texas Department of State Health Services
Investment Opportunity
Lone Star : Demographic Dividend or Bust?
K-12
HS Graduation College Enrollment College Completion
Texas Educational Investments: Elementary and Secondary School Indicators , 2011-2012
Texas U.S. Average Difference
% Free/Reduced Lunch 51.0 43.3 +7.7 % LEP-ELL Students 14.9 9.0 +5.9
Total Per Pupil Expenditure $10, 541 $12,201 -$1,660
NAEP: % Proficient or above
Grade 8 Math % 36 33 +3 Grade 8 Reading % 28 29 -1 Grade 8 Science % 23 27 -4
% ages 25-34 with AA degree or higher
32 42 -10
Source: CCD Data; nces.ed.gov/programs/stateprofiles/
Number of Texas High School Graduates: 1997-2010; Projections to 2028
Source:http://www.wiche.edu/knocking-8th/press/presentation
Composition of Texas HS Public School Graduates: 1990-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
White
African
Asian
Hispanic
Sources: WICHE 1990, 2008 and 2012 reports
Texas High School Graduation Rates: 2007-2012
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Latino
ANGLO
African American
Source: Texas Education Agency. 2014. New High School Graduation Mark Set by Class of 2013
%
~ 20 pts
~ 9 pts
Thou
sand
s of
Stu
dent
s Texas Higher Education Enrollment Trends and Projections: 1991-2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2020
Private Colleges and Universities
Public Universities
~ 40% increase total enrollment ~ 23% increase public universities
Public Community & Technical Colleges
Hispanic and African American College Enrollment: 2013 Actual and 2015 CTG Targets
2013 Actual Enrollment (‘000)
2015 CTG Target (‘000)
Shortfall (‘000)
African American
2-year public 113.6 87.7 none
4-year public 72.2 64.8 none
Hispanic
2-year public 291.8 429.9 -138.1 (47%)
4-year public 177.4 212.8 -35.4 (20%)
Source: Table A-1, Closing the Gaps 2014 Progress Report, June 2014
Texas College Attainment: Swimming Upstream and Falling Behind
4-yr. College Attainment Rates for 25-34 yr. olds: U.S. and Texas, 1980-2010
(Percentages)
1980 1990 2000 2010 Texas 22.9 21.5 23.7 27.2 U.S. 24.2 23.9 29.3 32.8 Difference -1.3 -2.4 -5.6 -5.6
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census of Population 1980-2000 and 2010 ACS
Population Ages 25-34 and 55-64 that Attained College Degrees: OECD + Nations, 2010 (Percentages)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Kor
ea
Japa
n
Can
ada
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion1
Irela
nd
Nor
way
New
Zea
land
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Aus
tral
ia
Isra
el
Bel
gium
Fran
ce
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Swed
en
Net
herla
nds
Switz
erla
nd
Finl
and
Spai
n
Chi
le
Esto
nia
OEC
D a
vera
ge
Den
mar
k
Pola
nd
Gre
ece
Ger
man
y
Mex
ico
Aus
tria
Italy
Texa
s
Bra
zil2
25-34 year-olds 55-64 year-olds
Source: OECD. Table A1.3a. See Annex 3 for notes (www.oecd.org/edu/eag2012). Statlink
College Attainment (Associate & Higher) by Age Cohorts and Race/Ethnicity – Texas 2008-10
Source:http://www.wiche.edu/knocking-8th/press/presentation
Black
Native American
Hispanic
Asian
White
Texas’ Investment in Higher Education Lags Behind Student Needs and Workforce Demands
Center for Public Policy Priorities, 2012
Texas Higher Education Funding & Tuition Costs, 1990-2010
Source: Center for Public Policy Priorities. 2012. “Texas Investment in Higher Education Lags Behind Student Needs and Workforce Demands.” Demos
College squeeze for low-income & first gen. students
Stagnant state funding
Rising cost
Two Compelling Reasons to Invest in Higher Education
Burgeoning labor force growth Population aging
Projected Change in Working-Age Populations (Ages 15-64)
Source: http://window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/workforce/
Educational investment imperative to harness dividend
Percent of Anglo and Hispanic Population by Age: TEXAS, 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
<5 5 to 9 10 to14
15 to19
20 to24
25 to29
30 to34
35 to39
40 to44
45 to49
50 to54
55 to59
60 to64
65 to69
70 to74
75 to79
80 to84
>85
White (NotHispanic)
Hispanic What kind of Future?
Thank You
Acknowledge technical support from Cara Carpenito and Dawn Koffman