Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Know what to expect! = Climo.
And the Heavens cried …. rain!whilst the lightning bolts cameDeluge Part Dos (2014)!Deluge Part Uno (2013)!
WelcomeTo Penn State!
Basic Forecast GuidelinesWhat causes temperature to change?
◦Cloud cover: Day Vs. Night
◦Precipitation: When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why?
◦Wind and Fronts: Direction
◦N vs. S Speed
◦Day Vs. Night
Basic Forecast GuidelinesWhat causes rain?
◦Need clouds! Will any ole cloud do?
◦Moisture supply Bodies of water – Moisture content of air
◦Upward motion: How does this affect clouds/precip.? Mechanisms for “lift”
◦Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist.◦(In) stability:
Warm down low … cold up high!
Basic Forecast GuidelinesClimatology Forecast = averages for today
Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values
Extrapolation/trend Forecast = Look upstream to see what the wind’s bringing in !◦ Satellite IR - Satellite VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2
Thunderstorms/Moist Convection◦Triggers ?◦Fuel
LI Cape
Basic Forecast GuidelinesThe “Models”
◦Simulate future state of atmosphere◦Higher resolution / lower resolution
The “Models” ◦Lower Res. (GFS)◦Higher Res. (NAM)◦Higher Res. (HRRR)
Your competition !!!
◦The National Weather Service
◦The Weather Channel
◦Accuweather
◦The guy or gal to your left and right