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Perspectives on Perspectives on UrbanisationUrbanisation::MilanoMilano, Europe & United States, Europe & United StatesPolitecnicoPolitecnico didi MilanoMilanoPresentation by Wendell CoxPresentation by Wendell Cox23 April 200823 April 2008
Lecco
http://www.demographia.com/dbhttp://www.demographia.com/db--worldua.pdfworldua.pdf
1,302 urban areasAll identified over 500,000
(707)2007 edition
2
http://www.rentalcartours.net/megacity_book.pdf
20 CompletedLos Angeles
to becompleted
byApril 1
ObservationsObservationson on MilanoMilano
Varese
3
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
1971 2001
Comune di Milano Population1971-PRESENT
Milli
ons
4
11,200
6,100
1300 3000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Milano Zona 1-3 Milano Zona 4-9 Suburbs Balance
Milan Metropolitan Area & Urban AreaMilan Metropolitan Area & Urban AreaPOPULATION DENSITY
Populationper
SquareKilometer
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Milano Los Angeles Atlanta
Agglomeration Population DensityMILANO, LOS ANGELES & ATLANTA
5
Paris
SuburbanSuburbanWorldWorld
97% 94% 93%
114%
92%
Suburban WorldSuburban WorldNEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IS SUBURBANNEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IS SUBURBAN
Aust
ralia
Cana
da
Unite
d St
ates
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Japa
n
Moscow Suburbs
6
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Population perSquare KM
Paris
London
New York
Los Angeles
Historical Urban Densities PARIS, LONDON, NEW YORK & LOS ANGELES
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
Amsterdam Copenhagen Hamburg Munich Paris Vienna Zurich
Urban Population Density HistorySELECTED WESTERN EUROPEAN URBAN AREAS
Popu
latio
n pe
r Squ
are
Kilo
met
er
1960
2000
7
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
W-EurNon-UK
UnitedKingdom
USA Canada Australia Japan SouthKorea
Taiwan
Urban Population DensityHIGH-INCOME WORLD AGGLOMERATIONS OVER 1M
Popu
latio
n pe
r Squ
are
Kilo
met
er Note: City States: Density
Hong Kong, Singapore& Macao: 23,500
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
Oceania Canada Japan United States WE-Non UK WE-UK
Core & Suburban DensitySELECTED WESTERN EUROPEAN URBAN AREAS
Popu
latio
n pe
r Squ
are
Kilo
met
er
Cor
e
Subu
rbs
8
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
W-Eur Non-UK Los Angeles Atlanta
Suburban Density: Early 2000sEUROPE, LOS ANGELES & ATLANTA
Popu
latio
n pe
r Squ
are
Kilo
met
er
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
W-EurNon-UK
UnitedKingdom
E-Europe Russia China LatinAmerica
Africa OtherAsia
India
Urban Population DensityWESTERN EUROPE & LOW & MIDDLE INCOME WORLD
Popu
latio
n pe
r Squ
are
Kilo
met
er
9
TheTheSmart GrowthSmart Growth
IdeologyIdeology
Cairo Suburbs
Potential to Increase Housing Prices from “Costs of Sprawl---2000”
From Table 15.4, “Costs of Sprawl---2000”
Adequacy of Facilities Requirements10
Transferable Development Rights9
State Aid Contingent on Local Growth Zones8
YESRestrictions on Physically Developable Land7
YESHigh Development Fees & Exactions6
YESLarge-Lot Zoning in Rural Areas5
YESLocal Urban Service Districts4
YESRegional Urban Service Districts3
YESLocal Urban Growth Boundaries2
YESRegional Urban Growth Boundaries1
Potential to Increase Housing PricesStrategy
Smart Growth: Proponent Admissions SMART GROWTH CAN = HIGHER HOUSING PRICES
From“Costs of
Sprawl-2000”
10
Urban & Rural FootprintWESTERN EUROPE: EARLY 2000S
Rural93%
Urban7%
AgriculturalLand
WithdrawnSince 1975
=Germany
788 901
1,347
2,2632,529
Suburbanisation Dilutes CongestionTRAFFIC INTENSITY IN WORLD URBAN AREAS
Vehicle Hours/Square Kilometer
By PopulationDensity
Density<1,000
1,000-2,000
2,000-4,000
4,000-8,000
8,000& Over
Hong Kong
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
10 20 30 40 50 60
Gramsper Mile@ 50°F
Slower Traffic: More PollutionSlower Traffic: More PollutionDENSITY SLOWS TRAFFIC, INTENSIFIES POLLUTIONDENSITY SLOWS TRAFFIC, INTENSIFIES POLLUTION
Los Angeles
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
ADM COP FFT HBG LON MCH PAR STK WIE ZCH
CBD Employment HistorySELECTED WESTERN EUROPEAN URBAN AREAS
Sha
re o
f Em
ploy
men
t in
CB
D
1960
1990
12
Aesthetics
Sydney Opera
Paris Opera Bilbao Guggenheim
Moscow: St. Basil’s
$0$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
AfricaLatin America
Asia
Argentina
GDP/Capita 2000$United States
W. Europe
Japan
Economies Vary by Extent of PovertyEconomies Vary by Extent of PovertyTHERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONSTHERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONS
Australia
Rio de Janeiro
13
$0$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000
$25,000$30,000$35,000
$40,000$45,000
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
WALKING
TRANSIT
AUTO
Mobility Improves AffluenceMobility Improves AffluenceGDP/CAPITA SINCE 1500: MOST AFFLUENT NATIONGDP/CAPITA SINCE 1500: MOST AFFLUENT NATION
U of ParisBrookings &U. Of Calif.
Reports
Beijing
London & Paris ComparisonLondon & Paris ComparisonLONDON: DISFIGURED URBAN AREALONDON: DISFIGURED URBAN AREA
London Prud’hommeet al research
14
0 3 6 9 12
Indianapo lisP it tsburghC incinnati
D etro itD allas-F t Wo rth
Kansas C itySt Lo uis
C levelandH o usto n
A t lantaC o lumbus
San A nto nioA ustin
Greensbo roN ashville
M pls-StP aulC harlo tteM o ntreal
Salt Lake C ityM ilwaukee
P hiladelphiaD enver
T o ro ntoC hicago
Va. B eachP o rt landP ho enix
M anchesterT ampa-StP
OrlandoW Yo rkshireWashingto nW M idlands
Seat t leB risbane
B o sto nA dela ide
Las VegasSacramento
M elbo urneN ew Yo rk
M iamiVanco uver
P erthLo ndo nSydney
San F ranciscoSan D iego
Lo s A ngeles
Median Multiple by MarketOVER 1.5M POPULATION: 6 NATIONS
Leading World EconomistsSMART GROWTH REDUCES AFFORDABILITY
Ian MacFarlane, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia
Kate Barker, Member, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
Paul Krugman, Economist (Liberal)Princeton University & The New York Times
Thomas Sowell, Economist (Conservative)Hoover Institution
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Land Rationing is the IssueDESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
1988-2002Introduction to
4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.
“Costs of Sprawl-2000”: House PricesREALITY V. PROJECTION: 2000-2025: PER UNIT
-$20,000$0
$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000
$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000
20072000 2025
Promised Cost Reduction from Smart Growth
Actual Increase Relative to Other Markets (2007$)
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Land Regulations Stunt Economic GrowthLand Regulations Stunt Economic GrowthUS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCHUS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCH
Philadelphia
20% less job growththan expected inmetropolitan areaswith strongestland use regulation-Raven SaksUS Federal Reserve Board
San Diego Pittsburgh
Migration: San Diego & Rust BeltNET DOMESTIC MIGRATION: 2000 TO 2006
%%%%%%%%%%
San Diego Pittsburgh Buffalo Cleveland Detroit
17
Southern Greenland
GreenhouseGreenhouseGas PolicyGas Policy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Inner Inner Ring Second Ring Outer
Per CapitaAnnual GHG Emissions (Tonnes)
GHG Emissions by Proximity to Core AUSTRALIA: CAPITAL CITIES OVER 1,000,000
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Bus IntercityRail
Metro Light Rail Small Car EU 2008Goal
HybridDiesel
Grams/PKM)
GHG Emissions by Mode UNITED KINGDOM
Sustainability Requires AffordabilitySustainability Requires AffordabilityPOOR SOCIETIES DO NOT PROTECT ENVIRONMENTPOOR SOCIETIES DO NOT PROTECT ENVIRONMENT
Manila
19
Shenzhen
TheTheFutureFuture
Economic Growth is NecessaryEconomic Growth is NecessaryPOVERTY IS NOT AN OPTIONPOVERTY IS NOT AN OPTION
Dharavi Slum, Mumbai
IF ECONOMIC GROWTHIS NOT ALLOWED TO CONTINUE…
WHEN WILL AMERICANS AND WESTERN EUROPEANS START TOLIVE LIKE INDIANS AND CHINESE?
20
PovertyPovertyIs notIs not
AnAnOptionOption
ECONOMIC ECONOMIC GROWTH:GROWTH:
REQUIRED REQUIRED FORFOR
SOCIAL SOCIAL COHESIONCOHESION
PLANNINGPLANNINGREFORM:REFORM:Back to Back to Basics:Basics:
Not Not telling telling peoplepeoplehow to live…how to live…
Rather,Rather,facilitating facilitating life styleslife stylespeoplepeoplepreferprefer
Planner’sRoute
People’sRoute
Paris Suburbs