Perú: Variables macroeconómicas y pronósticos

Perú: Variables Macroeconómicas y Pronósticos

Bruno SeminarioNikolai Alva

Perú y América Latina

Índice de PBI per cápita(Valor mínmo: cero, valor máximo: 1. Fuente: Cepal. Elaboración propia

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Perú América Latina

Promedio de la Tasa de Crecimiento logarítmica del PBI*Países centrales: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras,

México, Paraguay y Perú

media

Países 1950-1980 1980-1990 1990-2008 2000-2008 1950-2008

Argentina 0.0323 -0.0091 0.0376 0.0358 0.0274 Bolivia 0.0319 0.0001 0.0378 0.0365 0.0284 Brasil 0.0674 0.0230 0.0256 0.0359 0.0467 Chile 0.0339 0.0331 0.0518 0.0413 0.0389 Colombia 0.0496 0.0341 0.0351 0.0429 0.0422 Costa Rica 0.0607 0.0223 0.0488 0.0448 0.0509 Ecuador 0.0596 0.0228 0.0313 0.0464 0.0441 El Salvador 0.0400 -0.0149 0.0379 0.0272 0.0316 Guatemala 0.0486 0.0113 0.0387 0.0375 0.0388 Haití 0.0252 -0.0006 0.0027 0.0056 0.0124 Honduras 0.0423 0.0224 0.0377 0.0498 0.0384 México 0.0636 0.0235 0.0303 0.0277 0.0451 Nicaragua 0.0405 -0.0083 0.0310 0.0329 0.0288 Panamá 0.0591 0.0252 0.0559 0.0574 0.0499 Paraguay 0.0531 0.0374 0.0262 0.0285 0.0408 Perú 0.0479 -0.0067 0.0421 0.0542 0.0375 República Dominicana 0.0567 0.0283 0.0495 0.0514 0.0506 Uruguay 0.0217 0.0088 0.0301 0.0286 0.0217 Venezuela 0.0580 0.0038 0.0327 0.0432 0.0407

América Latina 0.0533 0.0164 0.0318 0.0353 0.0400 Países centrales* 0.0538 0.0176 0.0312 0.0345 0.0402

media 0.0470 0.0135 0.0359 0.0383 0.0376 mediana 0.0486 0.0223 0.0376 0.0375 0.0389 desviación estándar 0.0135 0.0165 0.0117 0.0121 0.0103

mediana

Países 1950-1980 1980-1990 1990-2008 2000-2008 1950-2008

Argentina 0.0393 -0.0185 0.0567 0.0813 0.0392 Bolivia 0.0444 -0.0060 0.0433 0.0409 0.0409 Brasil 0.0628 0.0319 0.0311 0.0389 0.0389 Chile 0.0370 0.0572 0.0457 0.0439 0.0439 Colombia 0.0517 0.0336 0.0419 0.0451 0.0451 Costa Rica 0.0632 0.0337 0.0462 0.0417 0.0417 Ecuador 0.0508 0.0305 0.0351 0.0416 0.0416 El Salvador 0.0457 0.0096 0.0351 0.0231 0.0231 Guatemala 0.0462 0.0066 0.0379 0.0355 0.0355 Haití 0.0339 0.0019 0.0126 0.0087 0.0087 Honduras 0.0449 0.0250 0.0400 0.0559 0.0559 México 0.0665 0.0256 0.0369 0.0315 0.0315 Nicaragua 0.0556 -0.0082 0.0328 0.0317 0.0317 Panamá 0.0588 0.0351 0.0626 0.0694 0.0694 Paraguay 0.0554 0.0389 0.0305 0.0377 0.0377 Perú 0.0474 0.0224 0.0465 0.0490 0.0490 República Dominicana 0.0609 0.0346 0.0563 0.0550 0.0550 Uruguay 0.0187 0.0110 0.0444 0.0641 0.0641 Venezuela 0.0595 0.0019 0.0388 0.0471 0.0471


media 0.0496 0.0193 0.0408 0.0443 0.0421 mediana 0.0508 0.0250 0.0400 0.0417 0.0416 desviación estándar 0.0120 0.0195 0.0111 0.0165 0.0139

Mediana de la Tasa de Crecimiento logarítmica del PBI*Países centrales: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras,


desviación estándar

Países 1950-1980 1980-1990 1990-2008 2000-2008 1950-2008

Argentina 0.0412 0.0468 0.0608 0.0744 0.0518 Bolivia 0.0410 0.0317 0.0145 0.0139 0.0354 Brasil 0.0312 0.0494 0.0262 0.0167 0.0378 Chile 0.0494 0.0683 0.0281 0.0116 0.0485 Colombia 0.0153 0.0144 0.0256 0.0192 0.0205 Costa Rica 0.0361 0.0425 0.0260 0.0261 0.0369 Ecuador 0.0408 0.0424 0.0297 0.0174 0.0413 El Salvador 0.0404 0.0578 0.0178 0.0100 0.0394 Guatemala 0.0207 0.0267 0.0096 0.0123 0.0239 Haití 0.0480 0.0290 0.0463 0.0205 0.0457 Honduras 0.0356 0.0250 0.0247 0.0133 0.0310 México 0.0222 0.0415 0.0290 0.0207 0.0338 Nicaragua 0.0812 0.0512 0.0216 0.0125 0.0655 Panamá 0.0330 0.0756 0.0294 0.0348 0.0429 Paraguay 0.0326 0.0406 0.0248 0.0303 0.0331 Perú 0.0273 0.0804 0.0422 0.0289 0.0486 República Dominicana 0.0555 0.0421 0.0398 0.0359 0.0478 Uruguay 0.0316 0.0545 0.0543 0.0724 0.0446 Venezuela 0.0310 0.0492 0.0663 0.0843 0.0517


media 0.0376 0.0457 0.0325 0.0292 0.0411 mediana 0.0356 0.0425 0.0281 0.0205 0.0413 desviación estándar 0.0146 0.0170 0.0153 0.0227 0.0106 Fuente: Cepal

Desviación estándar de la Tasa de Crecimiento logarítmica del PBI*Países centrales: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras,


PBI y PoblaciónPBI Perú 1834-2021 (a precios del 2000, en escala logarítmica)

Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Data histórica Pronóstico

PBI y Población

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Data histórica Pronóstico

PBI Perú 1976-2021 (a precios del 2000, en escala logarítmica)Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

PBI Perú 1834-1895 (US$ constantes de 2000)

Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

Año Población PBI PBI per capita

1830 1.717 471.22 274.43

1831 1.735 465.01 267.971832 1.754 468.74 267.291833 1.772 479.53 270.581834 1.791 499.44 278.85

1835 1.810 518.76 286.61

1836 1.829 561.24 306.82

1837 1.849 565.17 305.73

1838 1.868 584.21 312.71

1839 1.888 588.23 311.56

1840 1.908 592.29 310.43

1841 1.928 620.11 321.60

1842 1.949 612.30 314.221843 1.969 616.50 313.051844 1.990 620.74 311.90

1845 2.011 670.61 333.42

1846 2.033 674.94 332.051847 2.054 679.31 330.70

1848 2.076 709.92 341.981849 2.098 719.75 343.07

(millones de personas)

(millones de dólares constantes de 2000)

(miles de dólares constantes de 2000)


1850 2.120 746.74 352.21

1851 2.143 758.75 354.121852 2.165 839.87 387.871853 2.188 845.52 386.381854 2.212 870.69 393.71

1855 2.235 854.99 382.55

1856 2.259 933.65 413.37

1857 2.283 881.60 386.23

1858 2.307 886.51 384.31

1859 2.331 891.48 382.41

1860 2.356 891.56 378.43

1861 2.381 896.63 376.59

1862 2.406 901.31 374.591863 2.432 906.49 372.791864 2.457 967.85 393.85

1865 2.483 977.03 393.41

1866 2.510 1021.99 407.201867 2.536 1027.39 405.05

1868 2.563 1040.49 405.91

1869 2.591 1046.01 403.78

1870 2.618 1211.41 462.731871 2.646 1285.76 485.97





1872 2.674 1319.14 493.361873 2.702 1324.90 490.31

1874 2.731 1256.34 460.071875 2.760 1176.47 426.301876 2.789 1166.68 418.32

1877 2.818 1172.67 416.07

1878 2.848 1178.72 413.84

1879 2.878 923.56 320.87

1880 2.909 851.82 292.85

1881 2.939 858.04 291.92

1882 2.970 864.92 291.20

1883 3.001 916.04 305.20

1884 3.033 960.39 316.651885 3.065 966.86 315.471886 3.097 949.04 306.43

1887 3.130 955.67 305.35

1888 3.163 981.78 310.411889 3.196 1002.25 313.55

1890 3.231 1007.54 311.86

1891 3.266 1014.63 310.70

1892 3.301 993.59 300.97

1893 3.338 995.43 298.23

1894 3.375 972.50 288.141895 3.413 980.28 287.18




PBI y Población


1896 3.453 1051.80 304.62

1897 3.493 1149.43 329.051898 3.535 1224.21 346.351899 3.577 1291.50 361.051900 3.620 1360.79 375.86

1901 3.665 1459.95 398.36

1902 3.710 1540.17 415.12

1903 3.756 1644.54 437.81

1904 3.803 1699.80 446.94

1905 3.851 1824.36 473.75

1906 3.899 1970.20 505.28

1907 3.948 2093.71 530.29

1908 3.998 2133.09 533.561909 4.048 2169.23 535.851910 4.099 2206.87 538.36

1911 4.151 2254.33 543.08

1912 4.204 2333.55 555.121913 4.257 2411.43 566.42





1914 4.312 2396.30 555.73

1915 4.368 2603.50 596.051916 4.425 2872.80 649.181917 4.484 2978.97 664.321918 4.545 2996.92 659.40

1919 4.607 3096.33 672.03

1920 4.672 3127.36 669.38

1921 4.739 3256.93 687.30

1922 4.808 3537.42 735.80

1923 4.879 3780.95 775.00

1924 4.952 4137.39 835.51

1925 5.027 4246.59 844.69

1926 5.105 4677.84 916.321927 5.185 4760.62 918.211928 5.266 5067.30 962.20

1929 5.350 5597.00 1046.16

1930 5.436 4955.75 911.731931 5.523 4554.54 824.66





1932 5.612 4380.18 780.49

1933 5.703 4873.03 854.481934 5.795 5532.87 954.691935 5.890 6051.31 1027.451936 5.985 6341.99 1059.56

1937 6.083 6427.58 1056.65

1938 6.182 6528.99 1056.10

1939 6.283 6564.33 1044.75

1940 6.386 6691.24 1047.79

1941 6.491 6698.22 1031.91

1942 6.599 6544.55 991.81

1943 6.709 6647.88 990.90

1944 6.823 7218.33 1057.981945 6.941 7486.16 1078.581946 7.064 7774.28 1100.56

1947 7.193 7992.76 1111.131948 7.330 8257.15 1126.43

1949 7.476 8879.42 1187.68





Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

PBI y Población

Año Población PBI PBI per capi ta

1950 7.632 9578.19 1254.93

1951 7.800 10362.73 1328.561952 7.979 11008.95 1379.691953 8.171 11596.52 1419.281954 8.374 12344.54 1474.12

1955 8.590 12933.22 1505.67

1956 8.817 13488.70 1529.82

1957 9.057 14399.38 1589.89

1958 9.309 14317.50 1538.04

1959 9.574 14843.10 1550.38

1960 9.852 16650.08 1689.96

1961 10.133 17879.44 1764.56

1962 10.425 19373.27 1858.391963 10.727 20090.31 1872.871964 11.037 21415.94 1940.34

1965 11.353 22472.68 1979.39

1966 11.675 24361.54 2086.721967 12.002 25283.29 2106.54

1968 12.338 25372.92 2056.541969 12.682 26327.86 2076.00

1970 13.036 27869.27 2137.79

1971 13.402 29034.23 2166.42

1972 13.777 29867.90 2167.891973 14.162 31473.82 2222.43

(miles de dólares constan tes de 2000)


(millones de dóla res constantes de 2000)


1974 14.554 34384.45 2362.51

1975 14.953 35553.51 2377.651976 15.362 36250.96 2359.851977 15.780 36397.80 2306.591978 16.204 36500.16 2252.48

1979 16.631 38619.73 2322.11

1980 17.057 40351.46 2365.72

1981 17.480 42133.87 2410.34

1982 17.905 42222.73 2358.15

1983 18.332 36894.42 2012.58

1984 18.760 38671.07 2061.36

1985 19.190 39546.90 2060.77

1986 19.625 43201.68 2201.351987 20.064 46858.68 2335.471988 20.504 42947.84 2094.64

1989 20.941 37938.87 1811.68

1990 21.374 35893.43 1679.341991 21.801 36903.04 1692.74

1992 22.225 36744.81 1653.31

1993 22.646 38495.70 1699.90

1994 23.063 43431.48 1883.171995 23.476 47170.46 2009.341996 23.886 48358.31 2024.551997 24.294 51677.66 2127.17



(miles de dólares constan tes de 2000)


1998 24.697 51337.64 2078.68

1999 25.093 51806.94 2064.632000 25.477 53335.55 2093.482001 25.850 53450.16 2067.732002 26.213 56133.46 2141.46

2003 26.567 58396.92 2198.08

2004 26.914 61303.17 2277.70

2005 27.256 65488.15 2402.72

2006 27.588 70557.26 2557.55

2007 27.910 76806.33 2751.94

2008 28.227 84362.30 2988.75

2009 28.543 85856.72 3007.95

2010 28.865 88355.34 3061.022011 29.192 92701.82 3175.612012 29.521 97372.84 3298.402013 29.852 103265.81 3459.29

2014 30.182 109054.85 3613.24

2015 30.511 118210.03 3874.37

2016 30.839 128621.71 4170.74

2017 31.168 137714.15 4418.49

2018 31.495 147529.56 4684.192019 31.820 150142.95 4718.52

2020 32.140 154512.44 4807.432021 32.457 162113.39 4994.77





Fuente: CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

PBI y Población

Inversión, Consumo y TrabajoConsumo e Inversión 1896-2021

Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

189

6

1901

1906

191

1

191

6

192

1

192

6

193

1

193

6

194

1

194

6

195

1

195

6

196

1

196

6

197

1

197

6

198

1

198

6

199

1

199

6

200

1

200

6

201

1

201

6

202

1

Consumo/PBI Inversión/PBI Consumo/PBI (pronóstico) Inversión/PBI (pronóstico)

Consumo 1896-2021Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008).


50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

Consumo/PBI Consumo/PBI (pronóstico)

Consumo 1981-2021Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008).


50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Consumo/PBI Consumo/PBI (pronóstico)

Inversión 1896-2021Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008).


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

Inversión/PBI Inversión/PBI (pronóstico)

Inversión 1981-2021Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008).


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Inversión/PBI Inversión/PBI (pronóstico)

Inversión, Consumo y Trabajo

Año

1896 994.809 134.581 1129.390 2.011

1897 1043.497 142.792 1186.288 2.032

1898 1090.478 178.475 1268.954 2.054

1899 1156.117 182.362 1338.480 2.075

1900 1199.154 209.262 1408.416 2.097

1901 1282.668 255.206 1537.874 2.120

1902 1345.162 314.410 1659.572 2.142

1903 1440.129 349.220 1789.349 2.166

1904 1494.991 365.055 1860.047 2.189

1905 1601.387 372.758 1974.146 2.213

1906 1707.905 419.429 2127.334 2.238

1907 1772.558 487.257 2259.816 2.263

1908 1790.079 477.711 2267.791 2.289

1909 1804.858 420.741 2225.599 2.315

1910 1783.334 425.837 2209.171 2.342

1911 1803.830 417.215 2221.045 2.370

1912 1861.828 426.498 2288.327 2.398

1913 1788.504 550.366 2338.871 2.427

1914 1784.885 471.550 2256.435 2.457

1915 1965.150 392.594 2357.744 2.487

1916 2058.766 593.781 2652.547 2.517

Población en edad de trabajar

(millones hab.)

Demanda

Interna

Consumo Inversión


Año

1917 2241.469 633.632 2875.101 2.548

1918 2316.657 539.729 2856.386 2.580

1919 2234.899 668.332 2903.231 2.612

1920 2514.001 593.438 3107.439 2.644

1921 2446.666 713.633 3160.299 2.677

1922 2613.593 616.203 3229.796 2.710

1923 2647.990 741.049 3389.039 2.744

1924 2896.918 869.735 3766.653 2.778

1925 2965.165 928.489 3893.654 2.813

1926 3117.396 1022.979 4140.375 2.848

1927 3110.692 1083.108 4193.800 2.885

1928 3381.669 1048.976 4430.645 2.922

1929 3719.953 1198.764 4918.717 2.961

1930 3487.610 755.883 4243.493 3.000

1931 3559.196 415.579 3974.775 3.041

1932 3623.161 264.993 3888.154 3.082

1933 3851.978 341.835 4193.813 3.126

1934 4158.592 621.590 4780.182 3.170

1935 4412.165 775.848 5188.013 3.216

1936 4610.036 860.076 5470.111 3.264

1937 4709.668 985.143 5694.811 3.312


(millones hab.)

Consumo Inversión Demanda

Interna(millones de dólares constantes de 2000)

Año

1938 4846.080 981.029 5827.109 3.363

1939 4961.050 926.437 5887.487 3.414

1940 5275.679 840.479 6116.158 3.467

1941 5236.055 915.980 6152.036 3.522

1942 5264.009 813.687 6077.696 3.578

1943 5460.386 962.063 6422.449 3.635

1944 5827.440 1171.431 6998.871 3.693

1945 5970.972 1364.600 7335.572 3.752

1946 6348.920 1636.644 7985.564 3.811

1947 6803.246 1529.609 8332.855 3.872

1948 7149.429 1437.587 8587.015 3.933

1949 7743.329 1440.268 9183.597 3.995

1950 8435.978 1690.800 10126.778 4.071

1951 9172.794 2264.770 11437.564 4.147

1952 9414.642 2623.100 12037.741 4.231

1953 9791.296 2847.324 12638.620 4.318

1954 10635.293 2393.511 13028.804 4.409

1955 11322.528 2794.754 14117.282 4.505

1956 11560.795 3451.334 15012.129 4.605

1957 12299.964 3775.332 16075.296 4.707

1958 12338.285 3365.506 15703.791 4.813




(millones hab.)

Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998) y CEPAL (2008).


Año

1959 12584.586 2652.066 15236.652 4.925

1960 13330.665 2852.688 16183.353 5.043

1961 14365.317 3604.750 17970.068 5.165

1962 15768.163 4113.278 19881.441 5.290

1963 17262.784 3906.219 21169.003 5.422

1964 18437.862 3850.431 22288.293 5.561

1965 19822.183 4598.202 24420.385 5.708

1966 21356.269 5158.226 26514.495 5.860

1967 22944.430 4747.327 27691.757 6.019

1968 23309.345 4036.033 27345.378 6.186

1969 24181.513 4177.648 28359.161 6.362

1970 25623.201 4678.022 30301.222 6.549

1971 26627.234 5279.135 31906.369 6.742

1972 27593.404 5478.362 33071.766 6.943

1973 28787.136 7492.302 36279.437 7.152

1974 30715.488 9487.789 40203.277 7.372

1975 32233.689 9829.382 42063.071 7.604

1976 32932.708 8459.469 41392.177 7.842

1977 33602.381 7760.191 41362.572 8.086

1978 30787.544 7070.353 37857.897 8.340

1979 31015.864 7763.194 38779.058 8.604


(millones hab.)



Año

1980 33214.034 9461.933 42675.967 8.879

1981 34665.673 10986.764 45652.437 9.159

1982 35537.397 10748.700 46286.097 9.442

1983 32409.556 7510.111 39919.667 9.733

1984 32728.729 7049.111 39777.840 10.032

1985 33484.191 6253.598 39737.789 10.340

1986 37946.821 7400.037 45346.859 10.649

1987 41482.744 8777.781 50260.525 10.960

1988 37981.491 7555.599 45537.091 11.275

1989 31910.352 6059.196 37969.548 11.597

1990 30851.387 6184.397 37035.783 11.925

1991 31413.177 6322.257 37735.434 12.253

1992 31428.110 6382.042 37810.152 12.580

1993 32490.534 7093.337 39583.871 12.908

1994 35633.649 9487.235 45120.884 13.241

1995 39040.695 11560.196 50600.892 13.578

1996 40304.070 11228.354 51532.424 13.911

1997 42265.165 12944.960 55210.125 14.241

1998 42059.174 12759.449 54818.623 14.568

1999 42094.714 11335.155 53429.869 14.898

2000 43603.679 10776.642 54380.321 15.228


(millones hab.)



Año

2001 44109.394 9888.352 53997.746 15.552

2002 46006.097 9837.579 55843.676 15.871

2003 47586.799 10418.437 58005.235 16.186

2004 49347.129 11221.972 60569.101 16.501

2005 51898.930 12573.230 64472.160 16.817

2006 55319.833 14936.112 70255.946 17.126

2007 59664.616 18423.963 78088.579 17.430

2008 64574.513 23579.920 88154.432 17.731

2009 68308.291 19200.824 87509.115 18.032

2010 71815.558 19360.958 91176.515 18.335

2011 75745.570 17477.034 93222.605 18.635

2012 79196.622 16978.151 96174.772 18.930

2013 82579.207 18738.334 101317.541 19.226

2014 86168.345 22008.920 108177.265 19.524

2015 91585.371 26351.344 117936.715 19.824

2016 98041.234 32192.131 130233.365 20.121

2017 105216.148 31486.050 136702.198 20.412

2018 112226.875 27568.972 139795.847 20.702

2019 116495.497 25977.940 142473.437 20.992

2020 121139.189 27810.372 148949.560 21.281

2021 127187.242 31683.710 158870.952 21.563


(millones hab.)



Inversión, Consumo y Trabajo

Fuente: CEPAL (2008).


Stock de capital, PBI potencial y Productividad

Stock de capital per capita y Productividad (US$ de 2000) Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1896

1901

190

6

191

1

191

6

192

1

192

6

193

1

1936

1941

1946

195

1

195

6

196

1

196

6

197

1

197

6

1981

1986

1991

199

6

200

1

2006

201

1

201

6

202

1

Productividad Stock de capital per capita

Stock de capital per capita y Productividad 19812021(US$ de 2000) Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Productividad Stock de capital per capita

Stock de capital, PBI potencial y ProductividadPerú: PBI y PBI potencial 1896-2021

(US$ de 2000) Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

PBI per capita PBI potencial per capita

Perú: PBI y PBI potencial 1981-2021(US$ de 2000) Fuente: Seminario y Beltrán (1998), CEPAL (2008). Estimaciones: Elaboración propia

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

PBI per capita PBI potencial per capita

Año PBI PBI potencial Inversión Bruta Fija Stock de Capital DPBI IBF/Y Pbi/k Dpbi dk A A*

1896 1051.802 1223.569 134.581 3534.437 0.128 0.298 0.644 0.3461897 1149.433 1278.029 142.792 3561.312 97.632 0.124 0.322 0.644 0.3591898 1224.210 1331.177 178.475 3584.320 172.408 0.146 0.339 0.644 0.3711899 1291.497 1396.438 182.362 3641.026 239.695 0.141 0.350 0.644 0.3841900 1360.788 1461.603 209.262 3701.619 308.986 0.154 0.361 0.644 0.3951901 1459.946 1533.851 255.206 3786.961 408.145 0.175 0.377 0.644 0.4051902 1540.168 1621.447 314.410 3918.248 488.366 0.204 0.384 0.644 0.4141903 1644.538 1716.350 349.220 4077.384 592.736 0.212 0.390 0.644 0.4211904 1699.805 1806.223 365.055 4238.322 648.003 0.215 0.381 0.644 0.4261905 1824.362 1882.743 372.758 4384.901 772.561 0.204 0.388 0.644 0.4291906 1970.204 1954.261 419.429 4539.182 918.402 0.213 0.397 918.402 1425.282 0.644 0.4311907 2093.711 2069.780 487.257 4817.070 1041.910 0.233 0.398 0.270 0.4301908 2133.092 2203.907 477.711 5162.952 1081.290 0.224 0.379 0.270 0.4271909 2169.231 2333.377 420.741 5526.340 1117.429 0.194 0.362 0.270 0.4221910 2206.873 2426.113 425.837 5832.757 1155.072 0.193 0.351 0.270 0.4161911 2254.331 2508.961 417.215 6144.270 1202.529 0.185 0.342 0.270 0.4081912 2333.545 2595.515 426.498 6490.097 1281.744 0.183 0.338 0.270 0.4001913 2411.425 2678.070 550.366 6845.206 1359.624 0.228 0.334 0.270 0.3911914 2396.301 2801.453 471.550 7319.055 1344.500 0.197 0.313 0.270 0.3831915 2603.499 2891.670 392.594 7714.088 1551.697 0.151 0.325 0.270 0.3751916 2872.802 2947.398 593.781 8015.605 1821.000 0.207 0.346 902.598 3346.469 0.270 0.3681917 2978.972 3075.270 633.632 8510.367 1927.170 0.213 0.339 0.317 0.3611918 2996.920 3217.719 539.729 9044.980 1945.118 0.180 0.322 0.317 0.3561919 3096.329 3333.837 668.332 9503.641 2044.528 0.216 0.318 0.317 0.3511920 3127.359 3495.961 593.438 10090.906 2075.558 0.190 0.304 0.317 0.3461921 3256.927 3631.269 713.633 10595.500 2205.126 0.219 0.302 0.317 0.3431922 3537.425 3806.501 616.203 11206.639 2485.623 0.174 0.311 0.317 0.3401923 3780.951 3955.158 741.049 11727.379 2729.149 0.196 0.319 0.317 0.3371924 4137.386 4150.115 869.735 12372.966 3085.584 0.210 0.331 0.317 0.3351925 4246.587 4398.440 928.489 13167.672 3194.785 0.219 0.321 0.317 0.334



1926 4677.837 4669.560 1022.979 14023.366 3626.036 0.219 0.333 0.317 0.3331927 4760.624 4975.784 1083.108 14980.334 3708.822 0.228 0.318 0.317 0.3321928 5067.295 5302.206 1048.976 15997.430 4015.494 0.207 0.317 0.317 0.3311929 5597.004 5591.110 1198.764 16903.615 4545.203 0.214 0.331 2724.202 8605.638 0.317 0.3311930 4955.747 5916.048 755.883 17923.903 3903.945 0.153 0.276 0.272 0.3301931 4554.537 6091.424 415.579 18497.424 3502.735 0.091 0.246 0.272 0.3291932 4380.176 6143.911 264.993 18703.740 3328.374 0.060 0.233 0.272 0.3281933 4873.028 6130.244 341.835 18713.527 3821.227 0.070 0.259 0.272 0.3281934 5532.873 6121.349 621.590 18740.952 4481.071 0.112 0.292 0.272 0.3271935 6051.309 6191.439 775.848 19013.322 4999.507 0.128 0.315 0.272 0.3261936 6341.990 6305.406 860.076 19424.115 5290.188 0.136 0.323 744.986 2742.764 0.272 0.3251937 6427.583 6443.173 985.143 19911.432 5375.781 0.153 0.319 0.384 0.3241938 6528.988 6605.905 981.029 20477.145 5477.187 0.150 0.314 0.384 0.3231939 6564.334 6746.506 926.437 20970.917 5512.532 0.141 0.308 0.384 0.3221940 6691.242 6876.251 840.479 21419.643 5639.441 0.126 0.307 0.384 0.3211941 6698.222 7004.056 915.980 21839.381 5646.421 0.137 0.303 0.384 0.3211942 6544.548 7166.155 813.687 22329.524 5492.746 0.124 0.289 0.384 0.3211943 6647.883 7314.118 962.063 22725.997 5596.081 0.145 0.289 0.384 0.3221944 7218.329 7525.655 1171.431 23261.562 6166.527 0.162 0.306 0.384 0.3241945 7486.163 7785.224 1364.600 23882.626 6434.362 0.182 0.308 0.384 0.3261946 7774.283 8153.855 1636.644 24775.675 6722.481 0.211 0.310 0.384 0.3291947 7992.755 8656.487 1529.609 26019.725 6940.954 0.191 0.304 0.384 0.3331948 8257.151 9068.190 1437.587 26955.553 7205.350 0.174 0.301 0.384 0.3361949 8879.421 9437.674 1440.268 27759.507 7827.619 0.162 0.314 0.384 0.3401950 9578.194 9836.726 1690.800 28660.046 8526.392 0.177 0.330 0.384 0.3431951 10362.729 10272.432 2264.770 29682.514 9310.928 0.219 0.343 0.384 0.3461952 11008.948 10928.953 2623.100 31353.846 9957.146 0.238 0.346 4666.958 12158.114 0.384 0.3491953 11596.519 11667.620 2847.324 33263.313 10544.718 0.246 0.343 0.321 0.3511954 12344.539 12521.188 2393.511 35494.434 11292.738 0.194 0.343 0.321 0.3531955 12933.217 13174.744 2794.754 37146.896 11881.416 0.216 0.343 0.321 0.3551956 13488.700 13931.187 3451.334 39071.916 12436.898 0.256 0.339 0.321 0.3571957 14399.381 14910.547 3775.332 41594.761 13347.579 0.262 0.340 3390.433 10575.966 0.321 0.358


1958 14317.497 15982.369 3365.506 44347.114 13265.695 0.235 0.317 0.453 0.3601959 14843.102 16888.292 2652.066 46629.513 13791.301 0.179 0.312 0.453 0.3621960 16650.079 17541.265 2852.688 48232.603 15598.277 0.171 0.339 0.453 0.3641961 17879.443 18198.156 3604.750 49886.527 16827.641 0.202 0.351 0.453 0.3651962 19373.269 19271.922 4113.278 52735.394 18321.468 0.212 0.363 4973.889 10968.027 0.453 0.3651963 20090.306 20632.209 3906.219 56433.093 19038.504 0.194 0.354 0.340 0.3661964 21415.939 21942.002 3850.431 60074.319 20364.137 0.180 0.356 0.340 0.3651965 22472.683 23167.777 4598.202 63582.915 21420.881 0.205 0.352 0.340 0.3641966 24361.543 24523.660 5158.226 67559.527 23309.742 0.212 0.358 4988.274 14689.840 0.340 0.3631967 25283.289 25982.719 4747.327 71941.905 24231.488 0.188 0.348 0.294 0.3611968 25372.919 27215.284 4036.033 75829.157 24321.117 0.159 0.331 0.294 0.3591969 26327.861 28099.608 4177.648 78880.047 25276.060 0.159 0.330 0.294 0.3561970 27869.269 28988.359 4678.022 82076.666 26817.467 0.168 0.336 0.294 0.3531971 29034.232 30026.518 5279.135 85828.250 27982.431 0.182 0.335 0.294 0.3501972 29867.898 31256.470 5478.362 90266.907 28816.097 0.183 0.328 0.294 0.3461973 31473.817 32470.864 7492.302 94829.289 30422.015 0.238 0.329 0.294 0.3421974 34384.455 34327.496 9487.789 101507.903 33332.653 0.276 0.336 10022.912 34140.473 0.294 0.3381975 35553.512 36686.881 9829.382 110033.628 34501.711 0.276 0.321 0.142 0.3331976 36250.963 38930.953 8459.469 118691.579 35199.162 0.233 0.303 0.142 0.3281977 36397.801 40484.947 7760.191 125786.448 35345.999 0.213 0.287 0.142 0.3221978 36500.156 41552.311 7070.353 131909.995 35448.354 0.194 0.274 0.142 0.3151979 38619.729 42286.721 7763.194 137450.739 37567.928 0.201 0.278 0.142 0.3081980 40351.462 43142.745 9461.933 143776.347 39299.660 0.234 0.278 0.142 0.3001981 42133.873 44403.488 10986.764 151798.012 41082.072 0.261 0.275 0.142 0.2931982 42222.728 45935.138 10748.700 161093.976 41170.927 0.255 0.260 0.142 0.2851983 36894.415 47140.397 7510.111 169577.906 35842.614 0.204 0.215 0.142 0.2781984 38671.073 47285.984 7049.111 174464.917 37619.271 0.182 0.219 0.142 0.2711985 39546.898 47222.863 6253.598 178666.704 38495.096 0.158 0.218 0.142 0.2641986 43201.682 47071.653 7400.037 182526.791 42149.881 0.171 0.234 0.142 0.2581987 46858.680 47127.824 8777.781 187132.074 45806.879 0.187 0.247 12474.225 87605.238 0.142 0.2521988 42947.843 47374.654 7555.599 192458.522 41896.041 0.176 0.219 0.104 0.2461989 37938.868 47254.243 6059.196 196238.789 36887.067 0.160 0.190 0.104 0.241


1990 35893.433 46906.648 6184.397 198932.479 34841.631 0.172 0.178 0.104 0.2361991 36903.038 46818.569 6322.257 202464.809 35851.236 0.171 0.180 0.104 0.2311992 36744.810 46831.736 6382.042 205934.378 35693.008 0.174 0.176 0.104 0.2271993 38495.698 46850.034 7093.337 208711.669 37443.897 0.184 0.181 0.104 0.2241994 43431.478 47101.698 9487.235 211691.729 42379.676 0.218 0.201 0.104 0.2231995 47170.455 48125.371 11560.196 217272.745 46118.654 0.245 0.213 0.104 0.2211996 48358.312 49826.237 11228.354 224982.510 47306.510 0.232 0.211 0.104 0.2211997 51677.656 51518.244 12944.960 231612.662 50625.854 0.250 0.219 4818.976 46284.035 0.104 0.2221998 51337.642 53729.198 12759.449 239399.396 50285.840 0.249 0.210 0.466 0.2241999 51806.935 56289.745 11335.155 247411.517 50755.134 0.219 0.206 0.466 0.2282000 53335.547 59018.884 10776.642 254710.638 52283.745 0.202 0.206 0.466 0.2322001 53450.162 61932.153 9888.352 261309.632 52398.361 0.185 0.201 0.466 0.2372002 56133.458 64846.780 9837.579 266519.963 55081.657 0.175 0.207 0.466 0.2432003 58396.916 67870.142 10418.437 271078.407 57345.114 0.178 0.211 0.466 0.2502004 61303.174 71172.280 11221.972 276018.482 60251.372 0.183 0.218 0.466 0.2582005 65488.150 74247.735 12573.230 279748.152 64436.349 0.192 0.228 0.466 0.2652006 70557.258 77151.386 14936.112 282833.594 69505.457 0.212 0.241 0.466 0.2732007 76806.325 80590.299 18423.963 287940.325 75754.524 0.240 0.258 0.466 0.2802008 84362.300 85423.742 23579.920 297904.819 83310.498 0.280 0.275 32684.644 70153.424 0.466 0.2872009 85856.720 92054.804 19200.824 313724.548 84804.918 0.224 0.267 0.438 0.2932010 88355.342 97736.159 19360.958 325855.019 87303.540 0.219 0.265 0.438 0.3002011 92701.815 103328.972 17477.034 337452.783 91650.014 0.189 0.269 0.438 0.3062012 97372.840 107813.039 16978.151 345467.884 96321.038 0.174 0.274 0.438 0.3122013 103265.806 111550.840 18738.334 351459.271 102214.005 0.181 0.285 0.438 0.3172014 109054.853 115748.769 22008.920 359448.905 108003.051 0.202 0.295 0.438 0.3222015 118210.032 121875.698 26351.344 373947.714 117158.230 0.223 0.310 0.438 0.3262016 128621.708 129427.210 32192.131 393249.947 127569.906 0.250 0.321 0.438 0.3292017 137714.145 139059.249 31486.050 419188.479 136662.344 0.229 0.324 0.438 0.3322018 147529.562 148005.351 27568.972 443274.492 146477.760 0.187 0.327 63167.262 144310.242 0.438 0.3342019 150142.946 155133.830 25977.940 462065.683 149091.145 0.173 0.319 0.438 0.3362020 154512.441 162125.424 27810.372 480488.023 153460.640 0.180 0.317 0.438 0.3372021 162113.388 170276.433 31683.710 502239.199 161061.586 0.195 0.319 0.438 0.339

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

IBF/Y Pbi/k A A*

IBF/Y, PBI/K y A= dPBI/dK


Metodología: EjemplosCálculo de PBI (metodología “stage”)

Año Tasa Año Tasa Año Tasa Año Tasa Año Tasa Año Tasa

1897 0.0888 1908 0.0186 1919 0.0326 1930 -0.1217 1941 0.0010 1952 0.0605

1898 0.0630 1909 0.0168 1920 0.0100 1931 -0.0844 1942 -0.0232 1953 0.0520

1899 0.0535 1910 0.0172 1921 0.0406 1932 -0.0390 1943 0.0157 1954 0.0625

1900 0.0523 1911 0.0213 1922 0.0826 1933 0.1066 1944 0.0823 1955 0.0466

1901 0.0703 1912 0.0345 1923 0.0666 1934 0.1270 1945 0.0364 1956 0.0421

1902 0.0535 1913 0.0328 1924 0.0901 1935 0.0896 1946 0.0378 1957 0.0653

1903 0.0656 1914 -0.0063 1925 0.0261 1936 0.0469 1947 0.0277 1958 -0.0057

1904 0.0331 1915 0.0829 1926 0.0967 1937 0.0134 1948 0.0325 1959 0.0361

1905 0.0707 1916 0.0984 1927 0.0175 1938 0.0157 1949 0.0727 1960 0.1149

1906 0.0769 1917 0.0363 1928 0.0624 1939 0.0054 1950 0.0758 1961 0.0712

1907 0.0608 1918 0.0060 1929 0.0994 1940 0.0191 1951 0.0787 1962 0.0802

Año Tasa Año Tasa Año Tasa Año Tasa Año Tasa

1963 0.0363 1974 0.0884 1985 0.0224 1996 0.0249 2007 0.0849

1964 0.0639 1975 0.0334 1986 0.0884 1997 0.0664 2008 0.0938

1965 0.0482 1976 0.0194 1987 0.0813 1998 -0.0066

1966 0.0807 1977 0.0040 1988 -0.0871 1999 0.0091

1967 0.0371 1978 0.0028 1989 -0.1240 2000 0.0291

1968 0.0035 1979 0.0564 1990 -0.0554 2001 0.0021

1969 0.0369 1980 0.0439 1991 0.0277 2002 0.0490

1970 0.0569 1981 0.0432 1992 -0.0043 2003 0.0395

1971 0.0410 1982 0.0021 1993 0.0465 2004 0.0486

1972 0.0283 1983 -0.1349 1994 0.1206 2005 0.0660

1973 0.0524 1984 0.0470 1995 0.0826 2006 0.0746

Estadísticos Valores

promedio 0.05335

mediana 0.05350

0.01963 desviación estándar

máximo 0.08876

mínimo 0.00354

Tasas de crecimientote PBI de Perú 1897-2008 (escala logarítmica)

Histograma

Clase Frecuencia %

acumulado -0.00660 1 0.99% -0.00160 3 3.96% 0.00340 4 7.92% 0.00840 4 11.88% 0.01340 2 13.86% 0.01840 6 19.80% 0.02340 5 24.75% 0.02840 5 29.70% 0.03340 5 34.65% 0.03840 9 43.56% 0.04340 5 48.51% 0.04840 6 54.46% 0.05340 5 59.41% 0.05840 4 63.37% 0.06340 5 68.32% 0.06840 6 74.26% 0.07340 4 78.22% 0.07840 3 81.19% 0.08340 8 89.11% 0.08840 2 91.09% 0.09340 4 95.05% 0.09840 2 97.03%

y mayor... 3 100.00%

Histograma

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-0.0

0660

0.0

0340

0.0

1340

0.0

2340

0.0

3340

0.0

4340

0.0

5340

0.0

6340

0.0

7340

0.0

8340

0.0

9340

y m

ayor.

..

Clase

Fre

cu

en

cia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Frecuencia % acumulado

Cálculo de PBI (metodología “stage”)

Ciclos representativos de PBI de Perú 1896-2008 Expansión y contracción del tiempo en el ciclo representativo de 11 periodos (en índices)

Ciclo I Ciclo II Ciclo III Ciclo IV Ciclo V Ciclo VI Ciclo VII Ciclo VIII Ciclo IX Ciclo X

1908-1918 1918-1929 1929-1936 1936-1944 1944-1957 1957-1967 1967-1976 1976-1987 1987-1997 1997-2008 Promedio Mediana

1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

2 1.017 1.033 0.957 1.013 1.037 0.994 1.004 1.004 0.991 0.993 1.004 1.004

3 1.035 1.044 0.954 1.029 1.077 1.031 1.041 1.007 0.947 1.003 1.017 1.030

4 1.057 1.087 0.951 1.032 1.126 1.156 1.102 1.065 0.896 1.032 1.050 1.061

5 1.094 1.180 0.915 1.035 1.230 1.242 1.148 1.113 0.921 1.034 1.091 1.104

6 1.130 1.262 0.967 1.055 1.327 1.345 1.165 1.162 0.917 1.086 1.142 1.146

7 1.123 1.399 1.018 1.056 1.525 1.395 1.181 1.133 0.961 1.158 1.195 1.145

8 1.221 1.561 1.156 1.032 1.607 1.487 1.245 1.154 1.084 1.267 1.281 1.233

9 1.347 1.589 1.264 1.040 1.751 1.561 1.360 1.180 1.177 1.365 1.363 1.353

10 1.397 1.691 1.295 1.048 1.869 1.692 1.406 1.289 1.207 1.486 1.438 1.401

11 1.405 1.868 1.325 1.138 1.995 1.756 1.434 1.398 1.290 1.632 1.524 1.419

Ciclos de PBI de Perú 1896-2008 (en índices) Ciclo 0 Ciclo I Ciclo II Ciclo III Ciclo IV Ciclo V Ciclo VI Ciclo VII Ciclo VIII Ciclo IX Ciclo X

1896-1908 1908-1918 1918-1929 1929-1936 1936-1944 1944-1957 1957-1967 1967-1976 1976-1987 1987-1997 1997-2008

1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

2 1.093 1.017 1.033 0.957 1.013 1.037 0.994 1.004 1.004 0.991 0.993

3 1.164 1.035 1.044 0.951 1.029 1.077 1.031 1.041 1.007 0.947 1.003

4 1.228 1.057 1.087 0.915 1.035 1.107 1.156 1.102 1.065 0.896 1.032

5 1.294 1.094 1.180 1.018 1.055 1.144 1.242 1.148 1.113 0.921 1.034

6 1.388 1.130 1.262 1.156 1.056 1.230 1.345 1.181 1.162 0.917 1.086

7 1.464 1.123 1.381 1.264 1.032 1.327 1.395 1.245 1.165 0.961 1.130

8 1.564 1.221 1.417 1.325 1.048 1.436 1.487 1.360 1.101 1.084 1.186

9 1.616 1.347 1.561 1.138 1.525 1.561 1.406 1.154 1.177 1.267

10 1.735 1.397 1.589 1.607 1.692 1.434 1.180 1.207 1.365

11 1.873 1.405 1.691 1.710 1.756 1.289 1.290 1.486

12 1.991 1.868 1.792 1.398 1.632

13 2.028 1.869

14 1.995

Cálculo de PBI metodologías: “stage” y distribuciones estadísticas

M etodología M etodogía Metodología:

“Stage”

Distribución

Uniforme

Distribución Uniforme

Acotada

2009 84661.365 88688.78 88366.749

2010 86849.788 93237.141 92561.279

2011 89157.223 98018.763 96954.9112012 92290.112 103045.608 101557.098

2013 95370.212 108330.253 106377.738

2014 95550.924 113885.917 111427.2

2015 102966.571 119726.502 116716.3472016 113617.338 125866.618 122256.555

2017 117816.285 132321.627 128059.742

2018 118526.107 139107.678 134138.392019 118946.283 146241.748 140505.575

2020 122020.942 153741.686 147174.994

2021 125262.807 161626.255 154160.991

Años

Cálculo de PBI: Metodología de las “especies” (escalas específicas)

Especie Tipo Promedio1 -0.11619204

2 -0.078779173 -0.04136631

4 -0.003953445 0.033459426 0.070872297 0.10828515

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Tipo

Pro

bab

ilid

ad

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

189

7

190

0

1903

1906

190

9

1912

191

5

191

8

1921

1924

192

7

193

0

1933

193

6

193

9

1942

1945

194

8

195

1

195

4

195

7

1960

1963

1966

196

9

1972

197

5

197

8

1981

1984

198

7

199

0

1993

199

6

199

9

2002

2005

200

8

Cálculo de PBI: Metodología de las “especies” (escalas específicas)

PBI

M etodología M etodogía Metodología: Metodología:

“Stage”

Distribución

Uniforme

Distribución Uniforme

Acotada

"Especies" (escalas

específicas)

2009 84661.37 88688.78 88366.75 85856.72

2010 86849.79 93237.14 92561.28 88355.34

2011 89157.22 98018.76 96954.91 92701.82

2012 92290.11 103045.61 101557.10 97372.84

2013 95370.21 108330.25 106377.74 103265.81

2014 95550.92 113885.92 111427.20 109054.85

2015 102966.57 119726.50 116716.35 118210.03

2016 113617.34 125866.62 122256.56 128621.71

2017 117816.29 132321.63 128059.74 137714.15

2018 118526.11 139107.68 134138.39 147529.56

2019 118946.28 146241.75 140505.58 150142.95

2020 122020.94 153741.69 147174.99 154512.44

2021 125262.81 161626.26 154160.99 162113.39

Años

Cálculo de la Inversión metodología: “stage”

Ciclo I Ciclo II Ciclo III Ciclo IV Ciclo V Ciclo VI Ciclo VII1907-1913 1913-1919 1919-1927 1927-1937 1937-1946 1946-1952 1952-1956

1 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.00002 0.9804 0.8568 0.8879 0.9685 0.9958 0.9346 1.08553 0.8635 0.7133 1.0678 1.1068 0.9404 0.8784 0.91254 0.8739 1.0789 0.9220 0.6979 0.8532 0.8800 1.06545 0.8563 1.1513 1.1088 0.3837 0.9298 1.0331 1.31576 0.8753 0.9807 1.3014 0.2447 0.8260 1.38387 1.1295 1.2143 1.3893 0.3156 0.9766 1.60278 1.5306 0.5739 1.18919 1.6206 0.7163 1.3852

10 0.7941 1.661311 0.909612

Ciclo VIII Ciclo IX Ciclo X Ciclo XI Ciclo XII Ciclo XIII1956-1965 1965-1974 1974-1981 1981-1987 1987-1997 1997-2008

1 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.00002 1.0939 1.1218 1.0360 0.9783 0.8608 0.98573 0.9751 1.0324 0.8916 0.6836 0.6903 0.87564 0.7684 0.8777 0.8179 0.6416 0.7046 0.83255 0.8265 0.9085 0.7452 0.5692 0.7203 0.76396 1.0445 1.0174 0.8182 0.6735 0.7271 0.76007 1.1918 1.1481 0.9973 0.7989 0.8081 0.80488 1.1318 1.1914 1.1580 1.0808 0.86699 1.1156 1.6294 1.3170 0.9713

10 1.3323 2.0634 1.2792 1.153811 1.4747 1.423312 1.8216

Ciclo representativoCiclo I Ciclo II Ciclo III Ciclo IV Ciclo V Ciclo VI Ciclo VII1907-1913 1913-1919 1919-1927 1927-1937 1937-1946 1946-1952 1952-1956

1 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.00002 0.9804 0.8568 0.8879 1.0376 0.9958 0.9346 1.08553 0.8635 0.7133 1.0678 0.6979 0.8968 0.8784 0.99904 0.8687 0.8961 0.9220 0.3837 0.9298 0.8800 0.91255 0.8739 1.0789 1.2051 0.2801 0.8260 0.9566 0.98906 0.8563 1.1513 1.3893 0.5739 0.9766 1.0331 1.06547 0.8753 0.9807 1.5306 0.7163 1.2871 1.3838 1.19068 1.1295 1.2143 1.6206 0.8518 1.6613 1.6027 1.3157

Ciclo VIII Ciclo IX Ciclo X Ciclo XI Ciclo XII Ciclo XIII1956-1965 1965-1974 1974-1981 1981-1987 1987-1997 1997-2008 promedio mediana

1 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.00002 1.0939 1.1218 1.0360 0.9783 0.7755 0.9307 1.0511 0.98813 0.8718 1.0324 0.8916 0.6836 0.7046 0.8325 1.0095 0.87514 0.8265 0.9085 0.8179 0.6626 0.7203 0.7619 1.0350 0.87445 1.0445 1.0174 0.7452 0.6416 0.7676 0.8048 1.1593 0.91526 1.1918 1.1698 0.8182 0.5692 1.0808 0.9191 1.3425 1.04937 1.1237 1.6294 0.9973 0.6735 1.3170 1.1538 1.5614 1.17228 1.3323 2.0634 1.1580 0.7989 1.3770 1.6224 1.8391 1.3546

Cálculo de la Inversión metodología: “stage”

Clase Frecuencia % acumulado0.12307235 4 3.57%0.14542027 9 11.61%0.16776819 12 22.32%0.19011611 28 47.32%

0.212464029 24 68.75%0.234811949 20 86.61%0.257159869 10 95.54%

y mayor... 5 100.00%

Especie Tipo Promedio1 0.0917852632 0.134246313 0.156594234 0.178942155 0.2012900696 0.2236379897 0.2459859098 0.268333829

Cálculo de la Inversión metodología: “especies” (escalas específicas)

Tipo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Probabilidad 0.036 0.080 0.107 0.250 0.214 0.179 0.089 0.045

Año Ratio esperado Tipo2009 0.223638 62010 0.201290 52011 0.178942 42012 0.178942 42013 0.201290 52014 0.201290 52015 0.223638 62016 0.245986 72017 0.268334 82018 0.223638 62019 0.201290 52020 0.178942 42021 0.201290 5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1897

1901

1905

1909

1913

1917

1921

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

2021

Cálculo de la Inversión metodología: “especies” (escalas específicas)

Inversión

Año IBF/PBI IBF/PBI IBF/PBI IBF (niveles) IBF (niveles) IBF (niveles)met . "Especies" met. "Stage" Ajustado met. "Especies" met. "Stage" Ajustado

2008 0.27951 0.27951 0.27951 23579.920 23579.920 23579.9202009 0.22364 0.26862 0.22364 19200.824 23062.734 19200.8242010 0.20129 0.22855 0.21913 17785.053 20193.573 19360.9582011 0.17894 0.20526 0.18853 16588.262 19028.182 17477.0342012 0.17894 0.20920 0.17436 17424.105 20370.392 16978.1512013 0.20129 0.22474 0.18146 20786.381 23207.515 18738.3342014 0.20129 0.24714 0.20182 21951.659 26952.196 22008.9202015 0.22364 0.27233 0.22292 26436.254 32192.131 26351.3442016 0.24599 0.24480 0.25029 31639.128 31486.050 32192.1312017 0.26833 0.20019 0.22863 36953.364 27568.972 31486.0502018 0.22364 0.17609 0.18687 32993.215 25977.940 27568.9722019 0.20129 0.18523 0.17302 30222.284 27810.372 25977.9402020 0.17894 0.20506 0.17999 27648.788 31683.710 27810.3722021 0.20129 0.22698 0.19544 32631.815 36796.080 31683.710

Date post:	13-Jul-2015
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