THE BACKLASH AGAINST ELECTION MONITORS

Mr. Peter NovotnyReagan Fascell Democracy Fellow

International Forum for Democratic Studies

National Endowment for DemocracyFebruary 26, 2010

The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speaker and do not necessarily

reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.

Key Actors in Election Observation

(Inter)-national observers

(Non)- partisan observers

Other observers (talking heads, rubber –stamp,, electoral tourists, book readers, fighters)

3 generations of observers (1st symbolic presence, 2nd election day boom, 3rd comprehensive long-term methodology)

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Who is who ? International or national ? Partisan

International and Domestic Observers: A Comparison

International Missions Domestic NGO Observers

Better access to stakeholders

Media attentionMissions are limited in

time and number of observers

STOs work as mobile teams

May mediate conflictsInternational expertise

and international attentionSubject to Invitation and

Accreditation Procedure

Ability to deploy high number of stationary observers at polling sites

May conduct PVT Voter education, voters’

rights protection hotlines

Observe and advocate for reform on a long-term basis

Easier target for obstruction and intimidation 4

Civic Education in Croatia 5

Goals of Election Monitoring

To objectively assess election process

To safeguard its integrity by deterring fraud

To instill public confidence in election process

To improve the quality of the election process

Strengthen democracy at national & local levels

Engage citizens in voter right protection

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Methodology of Observation

Before, during and after election dayLong-term assessment (evidence–based)International standards, regional

instrumentsStatistically based approach Experts: legal, political, media, minorities,

campaign finance, statisticianTraining of observers (active observers)Reporting forms (checklists)Statistical analysis, IT enhanced reporting Statements, conclusions, recommendations

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Election Rigging Today:Before : Denial of opposition’s registration,

control of media, abuse of state resources, voter coercion and intimidation, violence, changing rules – constitution, electoral system, threshold, boundaries delimitation

During: Ballot box stuffing, multiple voting, vote buying, intimidation, disenfranchisement, vote count fraud, tabulation and aggregation fraud

After: Announcing rigged results, not allowing duly elected to take office

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BEFORE - Gerrymandering cartoon (1812)9

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11 AFTER: Counting Ballots for 2 days

Color Revolutions and Backlash

Color Revolution Syndrome (Georgia, Ukraine)Blame on Western and NGO observersOSCE accused of “double standards” (West & East)Limitations of intl. observers (Russia 2007-08)Intervention against intl. observers (Moldova 09)Imprisonment of domestic observers (Belarus 06)Denial of accreditation, cancelling NGO

registration, intimidation of domestic monitorsCIS observers

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DURING : Observers trying to observe early voting (KG) 13

DURING : Voters attempting to enter a polling site.

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15 AFTER: Invalidating Unused Ballots

Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) as Tool Against

Count-Rigging

Statistical verification method conducted by Domestic Observer Groups

Representative random sample of polling sites

To deter or detect and denounce tabulation fraud

Reliable quick projection of results Qualitative and quantitative assessmentProven to be reliable powerful tool for

domestic observer groups worldwide16

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PVT (Quick Count) vs. Exit Polls

PVT Exit Polls

PVT results are based on sample of results collected from polling stations

Quick projection of results within margin of error

PVT data include qualitative assessments

Exit Polls are based on voluntary answers of voters

Voters may hide their real preference

Voters may refuse to answer

Exit polls are not reliable in post-conflict countries

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CeSID PVT center in Serbia

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Presentation of PVT in Serbia (CeSID)20

NDI website with e-mapping showing fraud map and data21

Conclusions

Role of domestic observers increased significantly

International election monitoring remains important

in transitional and post-conflict societies

Effective synergy - local and international observers

Innovative methods used to counter election fraud

Public and media need better understanding of the

role, principles, and methods of credible observation

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