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Steam Cracking and the Impacts of Shale Gas NGLs on Supplies of Ethylene Co-Products 2012 – 2018
Argus experts analyze and quantify the potential shortages of ethylene co-product availability that stem from increasing quantities of cost-advantaged steam cracker feedstocks.
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Despite the steady demand for benzene and other components, pygas production has recently been constrained by the shale boom increasing supply of NGLs (ethane and propane) in the US and the economics of cracking light feeds versus naphtha to make ethylene and its co-products. Olefins units have moved to lighter feed slates in US flexible crackers and other regions are investing capital to convert liquid cracker capacity to NGLs. Several companies have announced plans for grassroots crackers to take advantage of these economic feedstocks, which if implemented, will continue the trend of decreasing North American propylene, butadiene and pygas production from ethylene production (steam cracking) facilities.
In an effort to quantify these impacts to the olefins markets, Argus DeWitt has developed a detailed analysis of ethylene co-product markets out to 2018 to determine availability and impact in the different regions.
• Module I - Ethylene to Pygas – December 2014• Module II - Ethylene to Propylene – March 2015• Module III - Ethylene to Butadiene – March 2015
This study both defines the reasons for the current supply and demand situation and identifies the projected trends for medium term supplies. Buyers and sellers of pygas, benzene, propylene and butadiene can benefit from a better understanding of product availability globally.
• Buyers – Mitigate risk by reshaping procurement strategies• Sellers – Maximize profit ratios by adjusting sourcing strategies• Traders – Strategically connect buyers and sellers according to under and oversupply in the
market• Technology providers – Identify new business models from companies who seek to leverage
operating flexibility through diversification of feedstocks• Strategy and Planning Departments – Determine profitability or opportunities by forecasting
supply and demand patterns
• Co-Product Balances – Current and future annual outlooks, per every country having ethylene plants helps you understand how the trade flows of the products are changing
• Pygas Buyers and Sellers directory – Contact information of participants in the commercialization and trading of pygas
• Olefins Model – Excel model with all ethylene production by country and their estimated co-product yields based on feedslate mix and cracking severity- Ability to run scenarios in-house- Forecast of feedstock use out to 2018
Steam Cracking and the Impacts of Shale Gas NGLs on Supplies of Ethylene Co-Products 2012 – 2018
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Section 1: Executive Summary & Methodology Section 2: IntroductionSection 3: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Shale Gas, Liquid Feeds Section 4: Shale Gas in the US and its Impacts on the Domestic Petrochemical Industry Section 5: Ethylene Balances and Steam Cracker Production Variables Section 6: Pyrolysis Gasoline (Pygas) ProcessingSection 7: Pygas Processing Economics and Regional Competitiveness Section 8: Pyrolysis Gasoline (Pygas) From Steam Cracking Section 9a: Benzene from Steam Cracking (Module I)Section 9b: Propylene from Steam Cracking (Module II)Section 9c: Butadiene from Steam Cracking (Module III) Section 9: Conclusions
Chuck has more than 25 years of experience in the petrochemical industry.
Prior to moving into the Business Development role, he led the Benzene & Derivatives service for Argus DeWitt. He joined DeWitt % Company in 2002 from CheMatch where he served as Executive Director, Latin America of the online trading platform for bulk petrochemicals. Before joining CheMatch, Mr. Venezia served as Area Manager, Latin America for Chevron Chemical Company. At Chevron, he managed the company’s polymer export sales and other chemical sales into Mexico and South America.
A native of upstate New York, Chuck holds an MBA and M.A. from Tulane University and a B.A. from Union College. He speaks Portuguese fluently and is proficient in Spanish.
Paco has over 16 years of consulting experience in the energy and petrochemical industry. Areas of expertise include aromatics market and price analysis, single client studies, manufacturing economic analysis, fuels supply chain, NGL pipeline management, IT project management, business process design, implementation of market intelligence systems, and software selection and implementation of energy trading risk management systems. Single client work includes various topics in reforming, alkylation, pyrolysis gasoline, and economic competitiveness in both olefins and aromatics value chains.
A native of Mexico, Paco earned an Industrial Engineering degree from Texas A&M University and a master’s degree in business administration from Tulane University.
Argus is the leading independent energy and commodity price reporting, news and analysis agency with 19 offices globally, including London, Houston, Washington, New York, Calgary, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Dubai, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Moscow, Astana and other key centers of the commodity industries. Argus uses a precise and transparent methodology to assess spot and forward prices in the oil, petroleum products, LPG, petrochemical, bioenergy, electricity, natural gas, coal, emissions, transportation, metal and fertilizer markets. Argus prices are used by market participants as indexes in physical contracts and as benchmarks for derivatives trading, settlement and clearing.
Argus Consulting Services provides clients with tailored research, data, benchmarking, modelling, strategic analysis and decision-making support. The focus is firmly on markets – their structure, outlook, logistics and economics, where Argus’ understanding, knowledge and insight provide clients with a clear competitive advantage.
Steve Weber is Vice-President of Petrochemicals and Refining consulting for Argus DeWitt, based in Houston, Texas. He has more than 35 years of experience in refining and chemical plant management, engineering and operations. Steve began his career with Fina in 1979 as a Process Engineer and had various other assignments in the 1980s in the Economics and Planning and Marine Transportation Groups for Fina in Dallas. In 1989, he moved to the Port Arthur refinery and later became Operations Manager at the site. Steve was named Plant Manager of the Total/GE Joint Venture Styrene Plant (Cosmar) in 1995 and Refinery Manager at the Big Spring Texas refinery in 1998. In 2000, he returned to Louisiana to manage both the Styrene JV and the Total Petrochemicals Polystyrene Operation. Steve was named Senior Manager of Aromatics for Total in 2005, relocating to Houston.
Steve WeberVice President, Petrochemicals and RefiningArgus Media
Chuck VeneziaVice President, Petrochemicals Business Development,Argus DeWitt
Paco Rangel,Benzene and Derivatives Consultant, Argus DeWitt
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