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Clayton Reasor SVP, Investor Relations, Strategy and Corporate Affairs UBS Global Oil and Gas Conference
Investing
Building
Growing
Cautionary Statement This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include fluctuations in crude oil, NGL, and natural gas prices, and refining and petrochemical margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our crude oil, natural gas, NGL, and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.
2
Corporate Strategy
3
Operating excellence
Growth
Returns
Distributions
High-performing organization
Refining Midstream
Chemicals M&S
Enterprise Value
2013 2018
Strategic Drivers
4
North American oil and gas production growth
U.S. feedstock and energy cost advantage
Developing markets driving global demand
Differentiated segment valuations
5
Global Portfolio
Midstream Chemicals
50/50 CPChem JV
35 manufacturing facilities 33.1 BLbs/y petrochemical and
product capacity
Marketing & Specialties
10,000+ global outlets
2,158 MBD marketing petroleum products sales 5 lubricant blending plants
18,000+ pipeline miles
10,000+ rail cars 115 MBD NGL fractionated
50/50 DCP JV
Refining
15 refineries 410 MBD export capacity
65% light-medium crudes
2,246 MBD crude capacity
See appendix for footnotes.
Industry-Leading Returns on Capital – 2013
6
Chemicals Midstream Refining and M&S
6%
7%
8%
15%
KMP
EPD
OKE
PSX
9%
18%
21%
24%
26%
DOW
XOMChem
WLK
LYB
PSX
5%
7%
10%
15%
15%
TSO
CVX
VLO
MPC
PSXPSX PSX PSX
See appendix for footnotes.
Midstream
7
NGL Pipelines and fractionation Export terminals
Transportation Crude and product pipelines Terminals and storage Rail, marine and trucks
DCP Midstream Gathering and processing Pipelines and fractionation
0.5
~1.5
2013Midstreamexcluding
DCP
Frac ILPG Export
Terminal
Refininglogistics
OtherMidstream
growth
2017E
EBITDA $B
Phillips 66 Partners
8
IPO in July 2013
Phillips 66 ownership
73% LP interest
2% GP interest
Top-quartile distribution growth
$700 MM acquisition in March 2014
$140 - 145 MM annualized EBITDA
Chart reflects 100% of CPChem capital expenditures.
1.2
2.1
2.6
2.0
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Capital Program $B
Chemicals
9
CPChem: 50/50 JV with Chevron
Market leader
Largest global HDPE producer
2nd largest global alpha olefins producer
4th largest N.A. ethylene producer
Highest returns amongst peer group
Self-funded capital program
Refining
10
Germany
Ireland United
Kingdom
Malaysia
15 refineries worldwide – 2.2 MMBD crude capacity
10% 14%
5-Yr Avg AdvCrude
Yields &Exports
Costs 2018E
Constant Crack Spreads ROCE Improvement
The 5-year average adjusted ROCE has been recast to reflect realignment of specific businesses moved from the Refining segment to the Marketing and Specialties segment.
Marketing and Specialties
11
U.S. Marketing
Wholesale business
International Marketing
Retail in Europe
Specialties
Finished lubricants
Base oil joint venture
Needle and anode coke
338
516
384
175 226
1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014
Adjusted EBITDA $MM
Investments Sustain operations Fund capacity growth Generate competitive returns
Distributions Double-digit dividend growth rate Repurchase shares
Capital Structure Maintain financial flexibility Target debt-to-capital 20 – 30%
Disciplined Capital Allocation
12
3.7
4.6
5.7 6.0
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Investments
13
Growth Capital $12 B Total Capital Program $B
CPChem Midstream DCP WRB Sustaining
2014E – 2016E
M&S Refining
See appendix for footnotes.
Distributions
14
Regular dividends Secure
Growing
Competitive
Share repurchase Immediate EPS growth
Below intrinsic value
Announced $5 B of repurchases
Share exchange of $1.4 B
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13 3Q 13 4Q 13 1Q 14 Total
Share ExchangeDividendsShare Repurchases
Distributions $B
$6.0 B capital returned to shareholders
2.5
1.9
1.3
1.7 1.8
21%
17% 14% 14% 13%
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014
Corporate RefiningMarketing & Specialties ChemicalsMidstream ROCE
Financial Summary
15
Disciplined capital allocation
Enhanced financial flexibility
Growing shareholder distributions
Adjusted EBITDA and ROCE $B
Key Initiatives
16
Growth Advance infrastructure projects Progress USGC petrochemicals complex Grow Phillips 66 Partners
Returns Increase advantaged crude Expand export capability Maintain cost discipline
Grow distributions
Institutional Investors Contact Rosy Zuklic Manager, Investor Relations [email protected] 832-765-2297
Appendix
Footnotes Slide 5 Midstream list excludes DCP metrics; Chemicals includes CPChem equity interest joint ventures; Refining includes equity interest joint ventures. Rail car count includes 1,200 rail cars managed for CPChem.
Slide 6 Data reflects 2013 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE).
To facilitate peer comparison, Phillips 66’s Refining and Marketing & Specialties segments were combined for the Refining and M&S ROCE calculation.
Refining and M&S ROCE for MPC, VLO, TSO are total company. Refining and M&S ROCE for CVX estimated based on excluding Chemicals. XOM Chem refers to Exxon Mobil’s Chemicals segment.
Slide 13 Capital program in total and the “sustaining” category include Phillips 66 proportionate share of DCP, CPChem and WRB, each of which is expected to be self-funding
18
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
19
Midstream ChemicalsRefining
and M&SNumeratorNet income 486$ 986 2,641
After-tax interest expense - - - GAAP ROCE earnings 486 986 2,641
Special items - - (22) Adjusted ROCE earnings 486$ 986 2,619
DenominatorGAAP average capital employed* 3,191$ 3,825 17,100
Adjusted ROCE (percent) 15% 26% 15%GAAP ROCE (percent) 15% 26% 15%*Total equity plus debt.
Millions of DollarsYear Ended December 31, 2013
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
20
Millions of DollarsYear Ended December 31 2013Transportation and NGLNet Income Attributable to Phillips 66 259$
Plus:Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 17 Income taxes 142 Depreciation and amortization 88
EBITDA* 506$ *Includes noncontrolling interests.
Midstream and Refining Logistics forecasts were derived on an EBITDA-only basis. Accordingly, elements of net income including tax and depreciation information are not available. Together, these items generally result in a significant uplift in EBITDA over net income.
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
21
Millions of DollarsFirst Year
Sweeny Fractionator and Freeport Export FacilityEstimated net income 210$
Plus:Estimated income taxes 135Estimated net interest expense 5Estimated depreciation and amortization 140
Estimated EBITDA 490$
Millions of DollarsYears Ended December 31 2014EPhillips 66 Partners LPNet Income $ 119.0 - 124.0Plus:
Depreciation 15.0 Net interest expense 5.4 Amortization of deferred rentals 0.4 Provision for income taxes 0.4
EBITDA $ 140.2 - 145.2
Low High100% CPChem Incremental Project Earnings ProjectionsEstimated incremental net income 1,000$ 1,313
Plus:Estimated income taxes 20 27 Estimated net interest expense - - Estimated depreciation 280 260
Estimated EBITDA 1,300$ 1,600
Millions of Dollars
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
22
2013 20141st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr YTD 1st Qtr
Phillips 66Net Income Attributable to Phillips 66 1,407$ 958 535 826 3,726 1,572 Less:
Income from discontinued operations 15 14 14 18 61 706 Plus:
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 3 2 5 7 17 6 Income taxes 663 507 278 396 1,844 426 Net interest expense 65 66 65 62 258 63 Depreciation and amortization 242 229 233 243 947 234
Phillips 66 EBITDA 2,365$ 1,748 1,102 1,516 6,731 1,595
Adjustments (pre-tax):EBITDA attributable to Phillips 66 noncontrolling interests (5) (4) (7) (8) (24) (8) Proportional share of select equity affiliates income taxes 21 28 26 18 93 29 Proportional share of select equity affiliates net interest (2) 1 12 14 25 14 Proportional share of select equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 147 150 157 168 622 162 Gain on asset dispositions - (40) - - (40) - Exit of business line 54 - - - 54 - Tax law impacts (28) - - - (28) - Pending claims and settlements (25) - - - (25) -
Phillips 66 Adjusted EBITDA 2,527$ 1,883 1,290 1,708 7,408 1,792
Millions of Dollars
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
23
2013 20141st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr YTD 1st Qtr
MidstreamMidstream Net Income Attributable to Phillips 66 111$ 90 147 121 469 188 Plus:
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 3 2 5 7 17 6 Provision for income taxes 63 49 87 65 264 108 Depreciation and amortization 19 19 19 31 88 19
Midstream EBITDA 196$ 160 258 224 838 321
Adjustments (pre-tax):EBITDA attributable to Phillips 66 noncontrolling interests (5) (4) (7) (8) (24) (8) Proportional share of select equity affiliates income taxes - 2 1 1 4 2 Proportional share of select equity affiliates net interest 22 22 33 33 110 30 Proportional share of select equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 31 33 37 38 139 39
Midstream Adjusted EBITDA* 244$ 213 322 288 1,067 384 * Proportional share of select equity affiliates is net of noncontrolling interests.
ChemicalsChemicals Net Income 282$ 181 262 261 986 316 Plus:
Provision for income taxes 121 51 105 98 375 126 Chemicals EBITDA 403$ 232 367 359 1,361 442
Adjustments (pre-tax):Proportional share of equity affiliates income taxes 19 25 25 24 93 27 Proportional share of equity affiliates net interest 2 3 2 3 10 3 Proportional share of equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 58 60 60 68 246 62
Chemicals Adjusted EBITDA 482$ 320 454 454 1,710 534
Millions of Dollars
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
24
2013 20141st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr YTD 1st Qtr
RefiningRefining Net Income (Loss) 904$ 455 (30) 418 1,747 306 Plus:
Provision for income taxes 467 280 22 266 1,035 202 Depreciation and amortization 177 168 170 170 685 172
Refining EBITDA 1,548$ 903 162 854 3,467 680
Adjustments (pre-tax):Proportional share of select equity affiliates income taxes 2 1 - (7) (4) - Proportional share of select equity affiliates net interest (26) (24) (23) (22) (95) (19) Proportional share of select equity affiliates depreciation and amortization 58 57 60 62 237 61 Tax law impacts (22) - - - (22) -
Refining Adjusted EBITDA 1,560$ 937 199 887 3,583 722
Marketing and SpecialtiesMarketing and Specialties Net Income 190$ 344 255 105 894 137 Plus:
Provision for income taxes 92 187 107 47 433 68 Depreciation and amortization 33 25 22 23 103 21
Marketing and Specialties EBITDA 315$ 556 384 175 1,430 226
Adjustments (pre-tax):Gain on asset dispositions - (40) - - (40) - Pending claims and settlements (25) - - - (25) - Exit of a business line 54 - - - 54 - Tax law impacts (6) - - - (6) -
Marketing and Specialties Adjusted EBITDA 338$ 516 384 175 1,413 226
CorporateCorporate Net Income (Loss) (95)$ (126) (113) (97) (431) (81) Plus:
Income taxes (80) (60) (43) (80) (263) (78) Net interest expense 65 66 65 62 258 63 Depreciation and amortization 13 17 22 19 71 22
Corporate EBITDA (97)$ (103) (69) (96) (365) (74)
Millions of Dollars
Non-GAAP Reconciliations
25
20141st Qtr 2nd Qtr YTD 3rd Qtr YTD 4th Qtr YTD 1st Qtr
Phillips 66 - ROCENumerator Net Income 1,410$ 2,370 2,910 3,743 1,578 After-tax interest expense 45 90 134 178 44 GAAP ROCE earnings 1,455 2,460 3,044 3,921 1,622 Special Items (14) (51) (65) (83) (706) Adjusted ROCE earnings 1,441$ 2,409 2,979 3,838 916
DenominatorGAAP average capital employed* 28,065$ 27,969 27,965 28,163 28,296 Discontinued Operations (189) (191) (192) (191) (96) Adjusted average capital employed* 27,876$ 27,778 27,773 27,972 28,200
Annualized Adjusted ROCE (percent) 21% 17% 14% 14% 13%Annualized GAAP ROCE (percent) 21% 18% 15% 14% 23%*Total equity plus debt.
Millions of Dollars2013