Photo Voltaic Solar Energy (1)

8/2/2019 Photo Voltaic Solar Energy (1)

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Photovoltaic Solar Energy

FuturesPresented to the

Minnesota Futurists

16 May 2009Dick Saunders and David Keenan


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But first a word from our

sponsorThe Futurist Tool

of the dayTrend Analysis and Extrapolation


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Trend Analysis & Extrapolation

A Method Everyone Uses

Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques basedon historical data.

Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting anemerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us.

Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend isand what its implications might be.

You could first look at historical data

http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm


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Trend Analysis & Extrapolation


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Trend Analysis & Extrapolation Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the

trend forward.

You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causescontinue indefinitely?

Are there upper limits to the trend?

What other forces may affect the trend?

At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment ratherthan objective extrapolation of historical data.

Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes willcontinue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way tobegin trying to understand the future.

It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end upwith absurd results.http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm


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Trends to Analyze in This Talk

Solar Cells

Market size

Market share

Sales

Units

Power produced

Cost per power delivered


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Agenda

The Sun

Solar Cells Background

How they work Types

Markets

Costs

Countries Companies

Questions


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Now on with the show


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Energy from the Sun About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earth's surface.

The Earth receives 174 petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incoming solarradiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected backto space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses.

Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and

this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and landmasses keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14 C.

By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemicalenergy, which produces food, wood and the biomass from which fossilfuels are derived.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy


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Breakdown of incoming solar energy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg


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Energy from the SunYearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption

The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and landmasses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (1018 joules) per year.(70% of incoming sunlight)(1 Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1 C)

Primary energy use (2005) 487 EJ (0.0126%)

Electricity (2005) 56.7 EJ (0.0015%) Therefore a good target

2002, more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.

Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass.

The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet is so vastthat in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from allof the Earth's non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, andmined uranium combined.

As intermittent resources, solar and wind raise issues.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy


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Solar Cells Background 1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first recognized the

photovoltaic effect.

Photo+voltaic = convert light to electricity

1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts, coated semiconductor

selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions.

1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with semiconductors,accidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was verysensitive to light. Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson,invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful

electrical power. Resulted in the production of the first practical solarcells with a sunlight energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.

1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell


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PV Solar for ElectricityPhotovoltaics

For the 2 billion people without access to electricity, it would becheaper to install solar panels than to extend the electrical grid.(The Fund for Renewable Energy Everywhere)

Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growingmarket for photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that more than2 million villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply,refrigeration, lighting, and other basic needs, and the cost of extendingthe utility grids is prohibitive, $23,000 to $46,000 per kilometer in 1988.

A one kilowatt PV system* each month: prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the atmosphere keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed keeps NO and SO2 from being released into the environment

* in Colorado, or an equivalent system that produces 150 kWh per month

http://www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.html


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How Solar Cells Work

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svg

1. Photons in sunlight hit thesolar panel and are absorbed

by semiconducting materials,such as silicon.

2. Electrons (negatively charged)are knocked loose from their

atoms, allowing them to flowthrough the material to

produce electricity.

3. An array of solar cellsconverts solar energy into a

usable amount ofdirect current (DC) electricity.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d7/Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svg


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Solar Cells BackgroundThree generations of solar cells

Solar Cells are classified into three generations which indicates theorder of which each became important.

At present there is concurrent research into all three generationswhile the first generation technologies are most highly represented in

commercial production, accounting for 89.6% of 2007 production.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell


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Solar Cells BackgroundFirst Generation Single Junction Silicon Cells

89.6% of 2007 Production45.2% Single Crystal Si

42.2% Multi-crystal SI

Large-area, high quality andsingle junction devices.

High energy and labor inputs whichlimit significant progress in reducing

production costs.

Single junction silicon devices areapproaching theoretical limit efficiency

of 33%. Achieve cost parity with fossil fuelenergy generation after a payback period

of 57 years. (3.5 yr in Europe)

Single crystal silicon - 16-19% efficiency Multi-crystal silicon - 14-15% efficiency

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08

Silicon Cell Average Efficiency


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Solar Cells BackgroundSecond Generation Thin Film Cells

CdTe 4.7% & CIGS 0.5% of 2007 Production

New materials and processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost.

As manufacturing techniques evolve, production costs will be dominated byconstituent material requirements, whether this be a silicon substrate, or glasscover. Thin film cells use about 1% of the expensive semiconductors comparedto First Generation cells.

The most successful second generation materials have been cadmiumtelluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), amorphous siliconand micromorphous silicon.

Trend toward second gen., but commercialization has proven difficult. 2007 - First Solar produced 200 MW of CdTe solar cells, 5th largest producer in 2007

and the first to reach top 10 from of second generation technologies alone. 2007 - Wurth Solar commercialized its CIGS technology producing 15 MW. 2007 - Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS technology in 2007 with a production

. capacity of 430 MW for 2008 in the USA and Germany. 2008 - Honda began to commercialize their CIGS base solar panel.

CdTe 8 11% efficiency (18% demonstrated) CIGS 7-11% efficiency (20% demonstrated)

Payback time < 1 year in Europehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08


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Solar Cells BackgroundThird Generation Multi-junction Cells

Third generation technologies aim to enhance poor electricalperformance of second generation (thin-film technologies) whilemaintaining very low production costs.

Current research is targeting conversion efficiencies of 30-60% whileretaining low cost materials and manufacturing techniques. They can

exceed the theoretical solar conversion efficiency limit for a single energythreshold material, 31% under 1 sun illumination and 40.8% under themaximal artificial concentration of sunlight (46,200 suns).

Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies including the use ofmultijunction photovoltaic cells, concentration of the incident spectrum,

the use of thermal generation by UV light to enhance voltage or carriercollection, or the use of the infrared spectrum for night-time operation.

Typically use fresnel lens (3M) or other concentrators, but cannot usediffuse sunlight and require sun tracking hardware

Multi-junction cells 30% efficiency (40-43% demonstrated)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08


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Global Cumulative PV Power

http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf


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Global Annual PV Market



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Solar Cells 2010 Market Share Estimate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Type

Marke

tShare

Solar Cell Market Estimate

-- First Generation -- -- Second Generation -- - Third Gen -

SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source Yole Development


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Global Annual PV Market Outlook



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Solar PV Market Outlook

Annual PV Market Outlook

$-$100

$200

$300

$400$500

$600

$700

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

SalesinBillio

ns

Rest of World

South Asia

China

Central + South

AmericaNorth America

Europe

SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar Generation V Sept 08 www.epia.org

by 2030 8.9% of Global Energy, 1,864 GW Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity


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Cost Projections

www.epia.org EPIA Solar Generation V Report Sept 08

$1.35

$1.07

$0.81

$0.54

$0.27

$0.13 ---

$/kWhGrid parity where PV costare equal to residentialelectricity costs isexpected to be achievedfirst in southern Europeancountries and then tomove north


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Cumulative installed solar electricpower by 2007

1st Germany 3.8 GW

2nd Japan 1.9 GW

3rd US 814 MW 4th Spain 632 MW

W ld' l t h t lt i (PV)


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World's largest photovoltaic (PV)power plants (12 MW or larger)

Name of PV power plant Country DC

PeakPower(MW)

GWh

/year

Notes

Olmedilla Photovoltaic Park Spain 60 85 Completed September 2008

Puertollano Photovoltaic Park Spain 50 2008

Moura photovoltaic power station Portugal 46 93 Completed December 2008

Waldpolenz Solar Park Germany 40 40 550,000 First Solar thin-film CdTemodules. Completed Dec 2008

Arnedo Solar Plant Spain 34 Completed October 2008

Merida/Don Alvaro Solar Park Spain 30 Completed September 2008

17 more

2 more

SpainKorea

Avg 20Avg 20

Koethen Germany 14.75 13 200,000 First Solar thin-film CdTemodules. Completed Dec 2008

Nellis Solar Power Plant USA 14.02 30 70,000 solar panelshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations

L t i l i d
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations


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Large systems in planning orunderconstruction

Name of Plant Country DC

PeakPower(MW)

GWh

/year

Notes

Rancho Cielo Solar Farm USA 600 Thin film silicon from Signet Solar**

Topaz Solar Farm USA 550 1,100 Thin film silicon from OptiSolar **

High Plains Ranch USA 250 550 Monocrystaline silicon from SunPower with tracking**

Mildura Solar concentrator powerstation

Australia 154 270 Heliostat concentrator using GaAs cells fromSpectrolab**

KCRD Solar Farm USA 80 Scheduled to be completed in 2012 **

DeSoto County, Florida USA 25 To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,completion date 2009.*

Davidson County solar farm USA 21.5 36 individual structures**

Cdiz solar power plant Spain 20.1 36 *

Kennedy Space Center, Florida USA 10 To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,completion date 2010.**

* Under construction; ** Proposedhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations


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Spain

Blessed with almost year-round sunshine, Spain's socialist

government is trying to capitalize on this natural resource.

In an effort to encourage private individuals and companies to installsolar power, Spain introduced subsidies of 0.42 per kilowatt perhour ($0.57/KWhr) (feed-in tariff and off-grid subsidies)

But the Spanish government is considering reducing this subsidy inSeptember, a move which is likely to face opposition from within thesolar energy industry.

2007: 26,800 employees in Spanish solar companies

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008


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Olmedilla Solar Park

60 MWp photovoltaic park installed by Nobesol with modules from Silikinhttp://www.siliken.com/clientes_proyectos/instalaciones/ficha?contentId=572


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Germany

10,000 companies, including installers work in solar PV

80 companies are cell and module makers

42,000 employees

Sales were $5.7 B including $2.5 B in exports

The feed-in tariff

2008 German utilities pay $0.47 to $0.68/kWh depending on typeand size of system for new solar systems

Utilities pass cost to consumers Germany average is $1.65/month

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008


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Waldpolenz Solar Park The Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface area equivalent to 200

soccer fields, the solar park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts intothe power grid when fully operational in 2009.

In the start-up phase, the 130-million-euro ($201 million) plant it will havea capacity of 24 megawatts, according to the Juwi group, which operatesthe installation.

The facility, located east of Leipzig, uses state-of-the-art, thin-filmtechnology. Some 550,000 thin-film modules will be used, of which350,000 have already been installed. The direct current produced in thePV solar modules will be converted into alternating current and fedcompletely into the power grid.

After just a year the solar power station will have produced the energyneeded to build it, according to the Juwi group.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html


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Waldpolenz Solar Park

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html


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Waldpolenz Solar Park

http://lumbergusa.com/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpg


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United States

2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US market

US leads development of thin-film technology accounting for nearlyhalf the global production

2007 about 50,000 employees

CA dominates with 60% of installed capacity

Various state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and FederalInvestment Tax Credits (ITC) are incentives.

Solar America Initiative making progress on goal to bring PV coststo grid parity by 2015


Rene able Energ Cons mption


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Renewable Energy Consumptionin the US Energy Supply, 2007

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html


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Chart Data

Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nation's

Energy Supply, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu)

Consumption Share

Total US 101.545

Coal 22.776 22%

Natural Gas 23.637 23%

Petroleum 39.773 39%

Nuclear Electric Power 8.415 8%

Renewable Energy: 6.813 7%

Of which:

Hydroelectric 2.446 36%

Geothermal Energy 0.349 5%

Biomass 3.596 53%

Solar Energy 0.081 1%

Wind Energy 0.341 5%http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/figure1_1.xls


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US Solar Industry Data

Size of U.S. Market2008 - U.S. had about 8,800 megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity.1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV),

418 MW of utility-scale concentrating solar power,

485 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating systems7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.

Ranking of U.S. Market: Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2007.1st Germany 3.8 GW, 2nd Japan 1.9 GW, 3rd US 814 MW, 4th Spain 632 MW

Growth of U.S. Market 2008 - more than 18,000 individual PV systems wereinstalled. Totaled 342 MW: 292 MW was grid-connected.

Growth of U.S. Manufacturing 2008 domestic PV cell manufacturing capacitygrew 65 percent to 685 MW and production grew 53 percent to 414 MW. (Resultspreliminary) (Source: Greentech Media Research and the Prometheus Institute)

www.seia.org/cs/about_solar_energy/industry_data and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008

Solar energy represents less than 1% of the U.S. energy mix. However, as a result ofgrowing awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf technology, concerns about rising costs,energy security and supplies, and new state and federal incentives, deployment of solarenergy has exploded since 2005.


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Nellis AFB Solar panels

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpg

GM installs world's biggest
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpg


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GM installs world s biggestrooftop solar panels

The largest rooftop solar power station in the world is being built in Spain.With a capacity of 12 MW of power, the station is made up of 85,000lightweight panels covering an area of two million SqFt.

Manufactured in rolls, rather like carpet, the photovoltaic panels are to beinstalled on the roof of a General Motors car factory in Zaragoza, Spain.

General Motors, which plans to install solar panels at another 11 plantsacross Europe, unveiled the 50M ($68M) project yesterday. The powerstation should be producing energy by September.

The panels will produce an expected annual output of 15.1 million kilowatthours (kWh) - enough to meet the needs of 4,600 households with anaverage consumption of 3,300kWh, or power a third of the GM factory. The

solar energy produced should cut CO2 emissions by 6,700 tons a year.

Energy Conversion Devices who makes the panels, said it would be thelargest rooftop solar array in the world.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008


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GM installs world's biggestrooftop solar panels

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008


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Japan

2002 - Basic Act on Energy Policy to secure stable energy supply,environmental suitability and use of market mechanisms

By 2006, installed 1.2 GW for 350,000 homes

2008 New research initiative to improve yields from 10-15% to40% and reduce cost from $0.48/kWh to $0.073/kWh



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China

2007 National Renewable Energy targets

10% by 2010 (300 MW)

15% by 2020 (1.8 GW)

Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6 companies Supplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70 companies

Number 1 PV panel producer 1.1 GW

50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli, Hebei

Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG 82,800 employees (6 times that of 2005)



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Top 10 PV Cell Producers

Until recently BP Solar wasdominant supplier.

New Top 10 produce53% of world total

Q-Cells, SolarWorld - Germany

Sharp, Kyocera, Sharp, Sanyo Japan

Suntech, Yingli, JA Solar China

Motech - Taiwan
http://www.bp.com/modularhome.do?categoryId=7040&contentId=7051376


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BP Solar

BP Solar to supply PV power systems for Wal-Mart in CA 22 April 2009

Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will finance, install and maintainthe systems and Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean electricity with noup front capital cost to the retailer.

Will initially build 10 to 20 rooftop systems at Wal-Mart locations in California,and would work with the retailer to evaluate the potential for additional projects.Expects to complete the first set, 10 MW of installed solar power, within about 18months.

2008 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7 Wal-Marts & Sams Clubs in CA.

Since 1998, BP guarantees its modules for 25 years.

BP Solar, part of BP Alternative Energy, is a global company with about 2000employees. With over 35 years of experience and installations in most countries,BP Solar is one of the world's leading solar companies.

BP is one of the worlds largest energy companies, in more than 100 countriesand over 96,000 employees.

http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9025044&contentId=7046577
http://www.bp.com/modularhome.do?categoryId=7040&contentId=7051376


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BP axes 620 jobs from solar business

01 April, 2009 - BP to axe 620 jobs from its solar power business

more than a quarter of that workforce in a move it said waspart of the long-term strategy to "reduce the cost of solar power tothat of conventional electricity.

Two cell manufacture and module assembly plants near Madrid, willbe shut with the loss of 480 posts while module assembly will also

be phased out at its Frederick facility in Maryland, US, with a further140 redundancies.

BP blamed the cutbacks on the credit crunch and lower-costcompetition saying its global manufacturing capacity would stillincrease during this year and next via a series of strategic allianceswith other companies.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/01/bp-solar


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Q Cells SE

1999 founded, 2001 began with the production of silicon solar cells

with 19 employees.

By 2009, 2,600 employees (2007, 1700 employees)

Now the largest solar cell manufacturer in the world. (since 2007)

Continue to expand production in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany andstart construction of new Malaysian production facility.

Alongside the monocrystalline and polycrystalline (90% of business)core business, we use a wide range of technologies to develop andproduce thin-film modules. (thin-film - 25% share of smaller market)

2008 Sales $1.69 B 2007 Sales $1.16 B profitable

QCE: Frankfurt exchangehttp://www.q-cells.com/en and http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AQCE
http://www.q-cells.com/en/index.htmlhttp://www.sharpusa.com/SharpHome/1,1959,,00.html


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Sharp Solar

Subsidiary of Sharp Electronics, Osaka, Japan

Produces silicon solar cells and thin film, leveraging silicon knowledgefrom LCD manufacturing

2008, capacity will reach 1.6 million square meters of thin-film modules,as we simultaneously build the world's largest thin film manufacturing

complex, capable of 10 million square meters per year. And thisgigawatt-scale factory is only the first to come. Katsuga City, Nara andSakai City, Osaka, Japan

Thin film efficiency 9%, expecting 10% from GW factory line.

Sharp powers more homes and businesses than any other solar mfg inthe world. First mfgr to reach 2 GW cumulative production since massproduction start in 1963

Memphis, TN 100 MW manufacturing facility

http://solar.sharpusa.com/solar/solar_thin_film/1,,3-6,00.html and http://www.sharpusa.com/files/sol_dow_ThinFilm_101408.pdf

S
http://www.sharpusa.com/SharpHome/1,1959,,00.html


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SunTech Power BEIJING, Jan 12, 2009 (Xinhua via COMTEX)

Chinas solar product maker SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.(STP.NYSE) recently laid off 800 workers or 10 percent of its totalemployees and postponed its previous plan on recruiting 2,000 people,said Shi Zhengrong, chairman and CEO.

SunTech delayed plan to expand production capacity to 1.5 GW in2009, which requires 2,000 more employees.

Plants in Wuxi and other areas are in normal operation with more than50% capacity running, compared with 85% prior to financial meltdown.

SunTech has received more than 800 MW of orders in 2009 including650 MW from Europe. 2008 overall orders of 500 MW.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2119252/

S T h P
http://www.suntech-power.com/index.phphttp://www.suntech-power.com/index.php


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SunTech Power Sales $1.9B 2008, 1.3B 2007 profitable

Employees: 6784 STP:NYSE

Wuxi, China

Worlds largest silicon cell maker

Average conversion efficiency rates of their monocrystalline andmulticrystalline silicon PV cells 16.4% and 14.9% respectively

10 May 2009 announces plan to build manufacturing plant in US, nowshopping states for incentives

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:STP

S
http://www.suntech-power.com/index.php


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Kyocera Solar

US Solar Division Scottsdale, AZ

Subsidiary of Kyocera, Kyoto, Japan (KYO:NYSE) $13B 2008

2008 broke ground for new plant in Tianjin City, China to expand

there from 60 MW to 240 MW by 2011. First one in China 03

2012 total production capacity to be 650 MW from Japan, Mexico,the Czech Republic and Tianjin.

Technology built on knowledge of fine ceramics, with metals,

plastics, and electronics developed for copiers and printers

http://www.kyocerasolar.com/about/

Fi t S l


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First Solar TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2009-- First Solar, Inc.

(Nasdaq: FSLR) today announced it reduced its manufacturing cost forsolar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1per watt price barrier.

2004 Began full commercial operation. Manufacturing capacity hasgrown to more than 500 MW in 2008 and will double in 2009 to morethan 1 GW, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant.

Escalating volumes accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturingcosts. Manufacturing costs have declined from over $3 per watt to lessthan $1 per watt. Further significant cost reductions are possible.

First Solar has industrys first and only comprehensive pre-funded, end-of-life module collection and recycling program, recycling more than

90% of each collected module into new products. (A serious issue dueto Cadmium-Telluride)

High throughput, automated lines that integrate each production step,from CdTe semiconductor deposition to final assembly and test, in onecontinuous process. This advanced manufacturing process transforms a

piece of glass into a complete solar module in less than 2.5 hours.www.firstsolar.com/

Fi t S l


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First Solar

Sales $1.2B 2008, $504M 2007, profitable

Employees: 3524

Tempe, AZ

FSLR:NASDAQ

finance.google.com

M t h I d t i


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Motech Industries

Modern Technology for a Sustainable World

Founded 1981, Motech Solar started 1997

2003 Publicly trades 6244: Taiwan Exchange

2008 8th largest manufacturer 272 MW crystalline and multi-crystalsilicon solar cells

Plants in Tianan,Taiwan and Kunshan, China

2008 Sales $691M, profitable

1,331 employees

www.motech.com.tw

Sh ll d i d l d h d


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Shell dumps wind, solar and hydropower in favor of biofuels

Shell will no longer invest in renewable technologies such as wind,solar and hydro power because they are not economic, the Anglo-Dutch oil company said today. 17 Mar 09

Sold US operations to SolarWorld - Germany

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/royaldutchshell-energy

S l W ld AG
http://www.solarworld.de/solarworld.4.0.html


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SolarWorld AG

SWV: Frankfurt exchange

1,825 employees

Bonn, Germany with production in Freiborg and Sweden

2006 acquired assets from Shell Solar which had been largest US solarproducts maker (fka Arco Solar and Siemens Solar)

Camarillo, CA and Vancouver, WA

2007 acquired Komatsu silicon wafer production facility Hillsboro, OR

Single and multi-crystalline silicon cells

http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA:SWV

S P
http://www.solarworld.de/solarworld.4.0.html


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Sun Power Founded 1985, purchased by Cypress Semiconductor in 2004, spun

out in 2008. SPWRA and SPWRB NASDAQ

HQs in San Jose and Geneva, Switzerland

12 polysilicon solar cell line in Philippines with capacity 314 MW/yr

Expansion plan for 1 GW capacity by 2010

High efficiency cells: 21-23% PG&E plans 250 MW facility in CA by 2012 FPL DeSoto Cty 35 MW facility due to open 2009

Nellis 14 MW facility on line

Sales: $1.4B for 2008, $775M for 2007 profitable

Employees: 5,400http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/

S P S l C ll


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SunPower Solar Cell

http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/why-sunpower/best-technology/

Energ Con ersion De ices /


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Energy Conversion Devices /United Solar Ovonics

ENER:NASDAQ

Rochester Hills, MI

Amorphous silicon thin film processon stainless steel

Over 20 years, manufacturingcapacity increased from 500 KW to25 MW/yr

Now 3 miles/day

Sales $255M for 2008, $114M for2007, slight profit 2008

Employees: 1090http://www.uni-solar.com

O i R ll ll P


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Ovonics Roll-roll Process

http://www.uni-solar.com/uploadedFiles/Uni-SolarTechnologyandManufacturingProcessAppendix.pdf

Siliki


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Silikin Since 2001, SILIKEN has obtained a significant share on the Spanish

PV market and has installed more than 160 MW of solar PV energy,= 240 GWh, the electricity consumption of more than 63,595 homes.

Number of employees: Currently 700 people.Valencia, Tenerife and Albacete, Spain and San Diego, CA

Sales: 152 million ($207 million) in 2007.

Peak power manufactured: has become one of the mainmanufacturers of PV modules, supplying 92 MW to the market in 08.

http://www.siliken.com/quienes/historia?languageId=1

Some Q estions


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Some Questions

Will peak minerals (rising cost due to limits in availability) limitgrowth of thin film and third generation solar cells?

Will demand growth in China and India limit growth in US?

How about the impact of other national / regional subsidies?

How will financial meltdown impact solar cell business?

What competing technologies would upset the solar industry?

How will cost and efficiency of 2nd and 3rd generation solar cellsimpact the businesses built on 1st generation technology?

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