Students For Smarter Planet:”I have MET the future, and its students!”
Jim SpohrerIBM UP Worldwide
PICMET 2013, San Jose, CAAugust 1st, 2013
IBM Smarter Planet
IBM SSME Centennial Icon of Progress
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
Today’s Talk: S4SP
• Some statistics and brief discipline histories• Some quotes• Some strategy
– Sciences and Applied Arts: IBM UP Strategy• Some possible futures
Some Stats: PICMET 2013 Sectors
Sector
TransEnvironThingsEnergyICTBuidlingRetailFinBizHealthEduGovOther
Health (22)
Things (36)
Finance Biz (93)
ICT (48)
Gov (36)
Edu (37)
Some Stats: PICMET 2013 Regions
Sector
NAMexSAEUAfricaRussEEuMEChinaIndiaJapanKoreaASEANWorldOther
China (60)
NA (59)
Africa (26)
MexSA (20)
World (39)
JapanKorea (50)
EU (36)
Some Short Histories:Engineering Management Discipline
(service-science.info/archives/3138)
• 1950s & 1960s (Demand and Origins, Al Rubenstein et al.)– World Events: Engineers promoted into management & executive ranks– IEEE Transactions of Engineering Management
• 1970s & 1980s (Growth in many places, NSF Erik Block & Richie Henrick, et al.)– World Events: Oil crisis and competitiveness concerns– NSF adds engineering emphasis and computer science– Industrial Engineering (IE) and Management Science (OR) degree programs– World Events: Japan’s success and competitiveness concerns– NSF Meeting, Textbooks, Growth in Degree programs and courses
• 1990s to present (Growth, Dundar Kocaoglu, Tarek Kahlil, et al.)– World Events: Internet growth and business school minor– PICMET, IAMOT, IRI, and others ( IEEE, IIE, etc.)– Challenges going forward
• Academic Silos: Engineering (accreditation) and Management (minor)• Hiring graduates into industry and industry participation in academic communities
– Opportunities going forward• Strong interest in Asia
Information & Computer Science
• “The single strongest impulse for introducing computers on campuses in the mid-1950s did not come from the schools themselves or from any federal agency, but instead from IBM.”
Data Science
• “Data science incorporates varying elements and builds on techniques and theories from many fields… with the goal of extracting meaning from data and creating data products.”
By 2020, 35 Zettabytes per year
• What’s big today will look small in a decadeGoogle processes > 24 Petabytes of data in a single day
Facebook processes 10 Terabytes of data every day
The Hadron Collider at CERN generates 40 Terabytes of data / sec
For every session, NY Stock Exchange captures 1 Terabyte of trade information
Twitter processes 7 Terabytes of data every day250,000,000 tweets
2 Billion Internet users in 2011By 2013, annual internet traffic will reach 667 Exabytes
Urban Science
• Urban science is an interdisciplinary field that studies diverse urban issues and problems
Service Science
• The transdisciplinary study of service, the application of knowledge for mutual benefits (value co-creation phenomena), in an ecology of interacting many-to-many, nested, networked viable service system entities.
Silicon Valley: Past, Present, and Future
Steve Blankwww.steveblank.com
Twitter: sgblank
The Popular View of Silicon Valley History
1910 1960 1970 1980 20001990
Innovation Networks
FruitOrchards
PersonalComputers
IntegratedCircuits
Internet
1930 1940 19501920
FruitOrchards
FruitOrchards
Steve Jobs
Moore/Noyce
Marc Andreessen
Hewlett & Packard
The Real Story of Silicon Valley History
1910 1960 1970 1980 20001990
Innovation NetworksMicrowaves/
Defense
PersonalComputers
IntegratedCircuits
Internet
1930 1940 19501920
TestEquipment
VacuumTubes
Terman and the Cold War Silicon Valley’s 1st Engine of Entrepreneurship
EntrepreneursMilitaryFinance
Crisis ProfitMotivation
CooperativeCulture
EntrepreneurialOutward-FacingTech Universities
Risk Capital
24/7 UtilitiesPredictableEconomic System
Infrastructure StableLegal System
TechnicalLabs/Universities
Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008
Free flow ofPeople/Information
Venture Capital Silicon Valley’s 2nd Engine of Entrepreneurship
Crisis ProfitMotivation
CooperativeCulture
EntrepreneurialOutward-FacingTech Universities Risk Capital
24/7 UtilitiesPredictableEconomic System
Infrastructure StableLegal System
TechnicalLabs/Universities
Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008
Free flow ofPeople/Information
EntrepreneursVentureFinance
Some Quotes
• The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better
• The future is already here at universities it is just not well distributed
• The core values of universities are learning, discovery, and engagement
• All viable businesses and governments learn to get smarter at scaling the benefits of new knowledge to their customers and citizens.
Some Strategy
Some more strategy…IBM Platforms for Entrepreneurs
• Smarter Cities Intelligent Operations Center Platform• IBM helping university startups to scale up (growth)04/11/2023
© IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional
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What’s UP at IBM?
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Those in-the-know say, “IBM is helping to build a Smarter Planet…”
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Smarter Planet = Smarter Systems
INSTRUMENTED We now have the ability to
measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything.
INTERCONNECTED People, systems and objects
can communicate and interact with each other in
entirely new ways.
INTELLIGENT We can respond to changes
quickly and accurately, and get better results
by predicting and optimizing for future events.
WORKFORCE
PRODUCTS
SUPPLY CHAIN
COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS
IT NETWORKS
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City challenges
Ryan Chin:Smart Cities
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Smart Startup: Streetline
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Smart Neonatal ICU
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Land-population-energy-carbon
Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities
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Four commandments for cities of the future: Eduardo Paes at TED2012
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SC IOC as a Platform for Innovation
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Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.
SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press in Wall Street Journal, Forbes and Bloomberg
in
Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th
SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd
North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th
apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp
Exclusive Networking andMentoring event
North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, [email protected] Programs lead: Dawn Tew, [email protected]
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What are the trends?
Digital ImmigrantBorn: 1988
Graduated College: 2012
Digital NativeBorn: 2012
Enters College: 2030
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Transportation: Self-driving cars
Steve Mahan:Test “Driver”
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Water: Circular Economy
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Manufacturing: Circular Economy
Ryan Chin:Urban Mobility
Baxter: Building the Future
Maker-Bot: Replicator 2
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Energy: Artificial Leaf
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Technology: Cognitive Computing
3737
Example: Leading Through Connections with…Universities Collaborate with IBM Research to Design Watson for the Grand Challenge of Jeopardy !
Assisted in the development of the Open Advancement of Question-Answering Initiative (OAQA) architecture and methodology
Pioneered an online natural language question answering system called START, which provided the ability to answer questions with high precision using information from semi-structured and structured information repositories
Worked to extend the capabilities of Watson, with a focus on extensive common sense knowledge
Focused on large-scale information extraction, parsing, and knowledge inference technologies
Worked on a visualization component to visually explain to external audiences the massively parallel analytics skills it takes for the Watson computing system to break down a question and formulate a rapid and accurate response to rival a human brain
Provided technological advancement enabling a computing system to remember the full interaction, rather than treating every question like the first one - simulating a real dialogue
Explored advanced machine learning techniques along with rich text representations based on syntactic and semantic structures for the Watson’s optimization
Worked on information retrieval and text search technologies
http://w3.ibm.com/news/w3news/top_stories/2011/02/chq_watson_wrapup.html
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Buildings: Circular EconomyChina Broad Group:30 Stories in 15 Days
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Retail & Hospitality: Social Media
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Finance: Crowd Funding
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Health: Robotics & 3D Printing
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Education: Challenge-Based Sport
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Government: Parameterized Meta-Rules
• Innovativeness
• Equity
– Improveweakestlink
• Sustainability
• Resiliency
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Competitive Parity – Achieved.• The NFL touts parity—the idea
that any team can win on any given Sunday. But this year, parity has truly run wild.
• Through six weeks, 11 of the NFL's 32 teams are 3-3.
• The Journal asked the statistical gurus of Massey-Peabody Analytics to run a coin-flip simulation…
What is a T-shaped Student?
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Many disciplinesMany sectors
Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)
Deep in one sector
Deep in one region/culture
Deep in one discipline
Silicon Valley: How many places…?
• Help win a war? Terman• Help launch new industries? Shockley• Help launch many sub-industries? RAMAC• Help improve improvement? Lean Startups
– Steve Blank: Why You Must Test Your Hypotheses• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w-NUOjwMto
• Boast so many great universities!– Stanford, Berkeley, UCSC, UCSF, SJSU, etc.
IBM: How many companies…?
• 1. Make it to 100?– IBM Centennial Film: 100 X 100 - A century of achievements that have changed the world
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39jtNUGgmd4
• 2. Achieve #1 Patents > 20 yrs in a row?– Twenty Years
• http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/40070.wss
– Boy And His Atom• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39jtNUGgmd4
• 3. Make computers smarter?– Watson: Science Behind An Answer
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DywO4zksfXw
– 5 in 5: New Capabilities• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwfJVwknvRo
• 4.Make ~100 acquisitions of big companies in a decade?– Partnerworld
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iivc-7dLLhw
• 5. Help make a Smarter Planet?– Nation by nation, state by state, city by city
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BadLt6XkyA• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuBBGYFonXM
– Internet of Thing• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfEbMV295Kk
The Future: My “Mentors”
• The future is already here at universities, it is just not yet well distributed– With apologies to Gibson
• The best way to predict the future is to inspired the next generation of students to build it better– With apologies to Kay
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2030 and Beyond…. Government, Health, Education, Finance, etc.
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Questions
• What is ISSIP?
• What is a service platform?
• What is service science?
• What is a T-shaped professional?
• How is this related to your work at IBM with universities?
• What are the important future trends you see?
What is ISSIP?
• Pronounced I-ZIP• International Society
of Service Innovation Professionals
• SIG Education & Research– T-shapes– Service Science
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What is a service platform?
• Access Places & Entities– Scale benefits– Of new knowledge– Globally & rapidly
• Smart Phones & Watson• Smarter City IOC• Franchises
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Service Science
• Emerging Discipline– Service Science,
Management, and Engineering (SSME)
• Service– Not sector (ECON)– Not capability (CS)
• Value Co-Creation• Service System Entities04/11/2023
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IBM SSME Centennial Icon of Progress
How do universities fit in?
• Best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation to build it better
• The future is already here at universities it is just not well distributed
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Growth
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Nesting
Matryoska dolls:Origin Japanese
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I am nested in at least 10 systemsLevel AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example
0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim
1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s
2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington
3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land
4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified
5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara
6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County
7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA
8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA
9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA
10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN
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Time
ECOLOGY
~14BBig Bang
(NaturalWorld)
~10KCities
(Human-MadeWorld)
sun (energy)
writing(symbols and scribes,
stored memoryand knowledge)
earth(molecules &
stored energy)
written laws(governance andstored control)
bacteria(single-cell life)
sponges(multi-cell life)
money(governed
transportable valuestored value,
“economic energy”)
universities(knowledge workers)
clams (neurons)trilobites (brains)
printing press (books)steam engine (work)200M
bees (socialdivision-of-labor)
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transistor(routine
cognitive work)
Evolution of Natural Systems & Service Systems
Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations…To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum
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~100 years of US job transformations
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis
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IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe
Acquisitions contribute significantly to IBM’s growth ; ~120 acquisitions in last decade
2012 FinancialsRevenue - $ 104.5BNet Income - $ 17.6BEPS - $ 15.25 (10 yrs of
EPS d/digit growth)Net Cash - $18.2B
24% of IBMs revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 7% ( @cc) in 2012
Number 1 in patent generation for 20 consecutive years ; 6,478 US patents awarded in 2012
More than 40% of IBMs workforce does business away from an office
5 Nobel Laureates10 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation – latest for LASIK laser refractive surgical techniques
The Smartest Machine On Earth
100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011
New Era in IBM’s Leadership
IBM Growth Initiatives
IBM has ~425,000 employees worldwide
Context: IBM 101
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Automobile
Inte
rnet
Technological Acceleration
0 25 50 100 125 15075Years
25
50
100TelephoneElectricity
Radio
Television
VCR
PC
Cellular
% P
enet
ratio
n
YEARS
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•iPhone/iPad app developer•wireless marketing director•microfinance infrastructure designer•3D content developer for movies, TV•social network manager•deploying technology into the cloud •organic solar cell development•digital image management
Many top in-demand jobs in 2011 did not exist in 2005!
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64 64
U.S Department of Labor estimates that today’s learner will have 10-14 jobs…
by the age of 38!
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Estimates are 85% of the jobs today’s learners will be doing haven’t been invented yet
they'll be using technologies that don't exist to solve problems we don't yet know are problems65
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Five historical cycles …
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University: Four Missions• Knowledge
– 1. Transfer (Teaching) – 2. Creation (Research)– 3. Application (Benefits)
• Commerce/Entrepreneurship• Governance/Policymaking
– 4. Re-Integration (Challenge)• Innovativeness, Equity• Sustainability, Resilience
• Nested, Networked Holistic Service Systems– Flows– Development– Governance
Nation
State/Province
City/Metro
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
Third Mission (Apply to Create Value) is about U-BEEs = University-Based
Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
Universities Matter #1
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Japan
ChinaGermany
France
United KingdomItaly
Russia SpainBrazilCanada
IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea
NetherlandsTurkey
Sweden
y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% g
loba
l G
DP
% top 500 universities
Nation’s % WW GDP and % Top 500 Universities (2009 Data)
Universities Matter #2
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…But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M
Universities Matter #3
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“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
Universities Matter #4
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What is a U-BEE? A local job creator/sustainerInnovating “whole service” in all regions worldwide
http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Nation
State/Province
City/Region
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
“The future is already here (at universities),it is just not evenlydistributed.”
“The best way topredict the futureis to (inspire the nextgeneration of studentsto) build it better.”
On Campus IBMers
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Up-SkillCycle
University-Region1
University-Region2
= New Venture
= Acquisition
= High-Growth Acquisition/ New IBM BU (Growing)
= High-Productivity/ Mature IBM BU (Shrinking)
= IBMer moving from mature BU to acquisition
= IBMer moving intoOn Campus IBMer role(help create graduateswith Smarter-Planet skills,help create Smarter Planetoriented new ventures;Refresh skills
= Graduates withSmarter Planet skills
IBM
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Measuring Quality-of-Life?A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)
1. Transportation & supply chain2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment3. Food & products manufacturing4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)
B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)
C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
0/19/02/7/42/1/1
7/6/1
1/1/0
5/17/27
1/0/2
24/24/1
2/20/24
7/10/3
5/2/2
3/3/10/0/0
1/2/2
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
* = US Labor % in 2009.
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
Data Science +Urban Science + Service Science =Smarter Planet
Jim SpohrerDirector IBM University Programs
June 17, 2013
Sciences & Applied Arts
• All sciences study systems– Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Information and
Computer Science, Service Science, etc.• All applied arts change systems
– Management, Engineering, Design Arts, Public Policy seek to apply rigorous scientific knowledge to create better worlds to inhabit