Project EstimationsWhat, Why, and How?

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

Back to the Roots

Scope

Schedule Budget

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

Perception

Scope

Schedule Budget

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

RealityTARGET

CONSTRAINTS

%

% %

COMMITMENT

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

Context

COMMITMENT = f(Target, Constraints, Priorities)

• Scope• Budget• Schedule

• Scope• Schedule• Budget

• Schedule• Scope• Budget

• Budget• Scope• Schedule

• Budget• Schedule• Scope

• Schedule• Budget• Scope

“FIXED PRICE” “FIXED TIME” “MILESTONE” “MVP”

“TIME-TO-MARKET”

“STARTUP”

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

Approach

• EvaluateTarget

• CalculateVariable

• VerifyFixed

• Simplify / ExtendTarget

• Target• Fixed Constraint• Variable Constraint

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

Evaluation

Scope

• Size• Technology• Dependencies• WBS

Schedule

• Process • Velocity• Milestones • Deadline

• Team• Rate• Direct Expenses• Cost • Profit

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Assumption Risk Contingen

cy

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

SummaryDo Don’t Do

• Panic!• Disregard a context• Introduce unnecessary constraints• Look for workarounds instead of solutions• Accept unrealistic assumptions• Bullsh*t a client

• Listen to your client• Understand a context• Distinguish targets and

constraints• Look for a solution to meet a

target as much as possible within constraints set by a client

• Address uncertainty by making assumptions, plan a contingency, track correspondent risks

• Negotiate a target with a client

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015

© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015