Political & Economic Risk Analytics - Alliant News/Alliant 2013 Ratings.pdf• Energy Contractors...

Alliant Emerging Markets | Ratings Guide

Political & EconomicRisk Analytics

Alliant Global Macro Analytics on Bloomberg: ABEM <GO>

Foreword ........................................................................................................ 1

Global Risk Indices ...................................................................................... 2

Scorecard ....................................................................................................... 3

Company Ratings ........................................................................................ 4

Industry Ratings & Indices

• Mining................................................................................................ 5 • EnergyE&P ...................................................................................... 6 • EnergyContractors ......................................................................... 8 • Manufacturing .................................................................................. 10 • FinancialInstitutions ...................................................................... 12

Countries & Insurable Risks ...................................................................... 13

SovereignDefaultRatings ......................................................................... 15

Methodology & Definitions ..................................................................... 16

Contents

Foreword

Alliant’sratings&indicesfocusonthestructuralrisksfacinginvestorsin125countries.Ourpolitical&economicrisklossdatabase,themostcomprehensiveofitskind,includesmorethan1,200ratingstrackingchangesinglobalrisklevelsonamonthly basis since 2003.

TheRatingsGuide,publishedannually,includesAlliant’sratings&indicesfor65countriesand5industries.Inaddition,theGuideincludesarankingofcompaniesthatmakeuptheDJIAbasedoneachcompany’sGlobalRiskScore,ameasureofeachcompany’suniquevulnerabilitytoindustry-specificrisksbasedonitsgeographicfootprint.Alliant’sratingsandindicescanbeaccessedviaBloombergProfessional(ABEM<GO>).

Alliant’sratingsquantifythelikelihoodofspecificstresseventsandongoingconditionsresultinginbusinesslossesatthecompany,industryandcountrylevels.Ouranalyticsarebasedonquantitativeriskmodelsdevelopedbyourteam,accesstopolitical&economiclossdata,andintelligencefromournetworkofgovernmentandindustrysourcesaroundtheworld.Ratings&indicesusea100pointscalereflectingtheprobabilityofaspecificriskeventresultinginabusinesslossover5years.Methodologyandriskdefinitionsareprovidedonthelastpageforreference.

Foundedin1925,AlliantwasacquiredbyKKRfromtheBlackstoneGroupin2012,andisoneofthenation’s leadinginsurancebrokersandriskadvisors. AlliantEmergingMarketspioneeredtheuseofanalyticstoquantify,prioritizeandmitigate a firm’s vulnerability to political & economic risks, and currently manages political & trade credit insurance programscoveringmorethan$15billionofassetsin70countries.

Dr. Michel LéonardChief Economist & Senior Vice PresidentAlliant Insurance

2013 Pol it ica l & Economic R isk Analyt ics


Global Risk Indices

Overall Trade CreditCurrency

Inconvertibility & Transfer

ExpropriationRegulatory &

LegalPoliticalViolence

Global 67.77 65.44 88.47 63.46 62.90

OECD 81.15 79.19 93.33 84.68 72.50

EmergingMarkets(All) 46.22 43.37 78.07 31.45 46.48

Latin America 57.66 51.59 69.91 53.24 67.54

MiddleEast&Africa 39.78 40.66 48.35 37.86 36.97

EasternEurope 43.56 38.63 54.70 31.93 52.07

EmergingAsia 49.32 46.82 78.99 24.63 46.97

(High Risk) 0 100 (Low Risk)Rating Scale



OverallCountryRatingChangeOvertheLast12Months(%) OverallCountryRatingChangeOvertheLast12Months(%)

Worst Country Overall Best Country Overall

1 Mali -60.71% 1 Nigeria 23.16%

2 Tunisia -22.81% 2 Greece 15.26%

3 Argentina -19.83% 3 Russia 11.76%

4 Egypt -13.04% 4 China(PRC) 10.17%

5 Kazakhstan -11.21% 5 India 7.38%

6 Algeria -10.38% 6 Japan 5.81%

7 Thailand -7.27% 7 Brazil 4.74%

8 Mongolia -6.29% 8 Korea(South) 3.77%

9 CzechRepublic -5.69% 9 Congo(Republicofthe) 3.61%

10 Vietnam -5.32% 10 Congo(DRC) 3.57%

Country Scorecard


Company RatingsRank DJIA Company Rating

1 Chevron Corporation 53.91

2 3M Co 58.57

3 International Business Machines Company 59.57

4 Intel Corp 60.57

5 GeneralElectricCompany 60.67

6 ExxonMobilCorp 62.12

7 Caterpillar Inc 62.49

8 Procter&GambleCo 63.31

9 Hewlett-PackardCompany 65.56

10 Boeing Co 66.64

11 EIDuPontDeNemoursAndCo 66.84

12 United Technologies Corporation 67.26

13 Cisco Systems 69.69

<<DJIAGlobalExposureAverage:70.43>>

14 Merck & Co., Inc. 70.62

15 Kraft Foods Inc 71.39

16 The Coca-Cola Co 72.03

17 McDonald's Corp 72.49

18 PfizerInc. 72.84

19 SCJohnson&Son,Inc. 73.20

20 Alcoa Inc. 74.64

21 Microsoft Corp 75.63

22 Wal-Mart Stores Inc 75.69

23 JPMorganChaseandCo 77.69

24 AmericanExpressCo 77.98

25 BankofAmericaCorp 78.60

26 Walt Disney Co 78.80

27 Home Depot Inc 79.11

28 AT&T Inc 81.15

29 VerizonCommunicationsInc 81.15

30 Travelers Companies Inc 82.84

International Exposures

Alliant’scompanyratingsquantifyafirm’sexposuretopoliticalandeconomic risks associated with stress events or ongoing conditions. Theratingsrepresenteachcompany’suniqueexposuretoindustry-specificrisksbasedonitsowngeographicfootprintweightedonthe basis of key financials from current quarterly SEC filings.Companyinformationissolelylimitedtopubliclyavailabledata.Alliant’s company ratings use a different probability scale than countries&industries.PleaseconsultAlliantformoredetails.



Mining Industry Ratings & Indices

Overall Expropriation, Regulatory & Legal

Arbitration Award Default Political Violence

INDUSTRY INDICES

Global 53.91 44.43 76.16 40.88

OECD 67.04 59.28 98.00 47.12

EmergingMarkets(All) 35.91 22.02 37.74 30.21

Latin America 44.58 37.27 63.89 43.90

MiddleEast&Africa 29.54 26.50 45.43 24.03

EasternEurope 29.00 22.35 38.32 33.85

EmergingAsia 23.69 17.24 29.55 30.53

Key Hard Commodity Producers

1 Russia 19.41 14.61 25.05 23.66

2 Congo(DRC) 21.12 17.98 30.82 19.88

3 Indonesia 19.44 11.67 20.00 32.01

4 SouthAfrica 31.27 25.43 43.60 32.76

<<IndustryEMAverage:35.91>>

5 Peru 38.30 32.52 55.74 36.32

6 Brazil 48.33 39.97 68.51 48.83

7 Mexico 44.90 33.70 57.77 54.98

8 Poland 42.70 37.52 64.31 36.93

<<IndustryGlobalAverage:53.91>>

9 USA 63.64 61.50 97.00 39.35

10 Chile 64.26 56.92 97.57 54.29

<<IndustryOECDAverage:67.04>>

11 Australia 69.82 62.07 98.00 58.37

12 Canada 67.23 58.89 99.00 58.66

Alliant’sindustryindices&ratingstracklevelsofpolitical&economicrisksspecifictoeachcoveredindustry.Eachcountryisselectedonthebasisofitsrelevancetothecoveredindustry.Alliant’sratingmodelisbasedonhistoricallosspatternsforeachindustry in each covered country.


Energy E&P Industry Ratings & Indices

Overall Expropriation & Creeping Expropriation Arbitration Award Default Political Violence

INDUSTRY INDICES

Global 60.93 47.60 79.33 69.19

OECD 78.85 63.51 98.00 79.74


Latin America 55.56 39.93 66.55 74.30


EasternEurope&CentralAsia 37.14 23.95 39.92 57.28

EmergingAsia 30.89 18.47 30.78 51.67

40 Largest & Key Producers

1 Libya 9.55 7.50 12.50 11.00

2 Pakistan 11.11 9.38 15.63 11.00

3 Iraq 11.66 9.38 15.63 12.83

4 Algeria 13.40 7.50 12.50 23.83

5 Congo(DRC) 16.06 9.38 15.63 27.50

6 Ecuador 20.46 9.38 15.63 42.17

7 Nigeria 21.05 18.21 30.35 19.58

8 Venezuela 22.95 13.72 22.86 38.39

9 Iran 24.31 9.38 15.63 55.00

10 Kazakhstan 24.71 5.04 8.41 68.37

11 Russia 25.06 15.65 26.09 40.04

12 Turkmenistan 25.96 9.38 15.63 60.50

13 Indonesia 26.14 19.26 32.10 33.64

14 Argentina 26.14 7.57 12.62 66.11

15 China(PRC) 26.67 12.50 20.84 54.17

16 EquatorialGuinea 29.93 18.75 31.25 47.67

17 Niger 30.76 24.38 40.63 34.83

18 Egypt 31.31 24.38 40.63 36.67



Overall Expropriation & Creeping Expropriation

Arbitration Award Default Political Violence

40 Largest & Key Producers

19 Vietnam 31.92 11.78 19.64 73.68

20 Saudi Arabia 35.91 31.88 53.13 31.17

21 Thailand 37.13 31.07 51.78 37.48

22 Ghana 38.93 26.25 43.75 56.83

23 SouthAfrica 39.34 27.25 45.42 55.44

24 India 40.54 32.04 53.41 46.14


25 Congo(Republicofthe) 42.60 30.00 50.00 58.67

26 Malaysia 46.39 36.09 60.15 54.38

27 Kuwait 48.48 33.75 56.25 67.83

28 Bahrain 50.70 45.00 75.00 44.00

29 Colombia 51.00 48.49 80.81 35.31

30 Mexico 52.25 40.20 66.99 62.50

31 Bulgaria 52.95 30.32 50.53 92.28

32 UnitedArabEmirates 53.08 41.25 68.75 62.33

33 Qatar 55.83 41.25 68.75 71.50

34 Brazil 60.47 42.82 71.37 82.63


35 UK 71.33 62.95 98.00 67.52

36 USA 72.32 65.90 97.00 66.59


37 Australia 81.08 63.10 98.00 95.00

38 Denmark 83.19 65.63 98.00 95.00

39 Netherlands 83.19 65.63 99.00 95.00

40 Canada 83.92 66.50 99.00 95.00


Energy E&P Industry Ratings & Indices

Energy Contractors Industry Ratings & Indices

Overall Trade Credit Expropriation & Creeping Expropriation Politcal Violence

INDUSTRY INDICES

Global 66.91 71.99 50.77 69.19

OECD 79.02 87.11 67.75 79.74


Latin America 51.77 56.75 42.59 74.30


EasternEurope&CentralAsia 35.28 42.49 25.55 57.28

EmergingAsia 32.46 51.51 19.70 51.67

40 Largest Key Producers

1 Libya 9.20 11.00 8.00 11.00

2 Pakistan 10.40 11.00 10.00 11.00

3 Iraq 14.07 27.50 10.00 12.83

4 Nigeria 18.59 15.10 19.42 19.58

5 Congo(DRC) 19.20 38.50 10.00 27.50

6 Algeria 19.47 49.50 8.00 23.83

7 Ecuador 19.93 27.50 10.00 42.17

8 Turkmenistan 20.30 11.00 10.00 60.50

9 Iran 21.40 22.00 10.00 55.00

10 Argentina 22.77 23.49 8.08 66.11

11 Kazakhstan 23.09 30.96 5.38 68.37

12 Venezuela 23.63 35.87 14.63 38.39

13 Egypt 25.13 11.00 26.00 36.67

14 Russia 27.47 47.23 16.70 40.04

15 EquatorialGuinea 28.13 33.00 20.00 47.67

16 Niger 29.17 33.00 26.00 34.83

17 Indonesia 29.38 51.63 20.55 33.64

18 China(PRC) 29.81 54.86 13.34 54.17



Overall Trade Credit Expropriation & Creeping Expropriation Politcal Violence

40 Largest Key Producers

19 Thailand 31.29 19.56 33.14 37.48

20 Vietnam 31.47 45.99 12.57 73.68

21 Ghana 34.77 33.00 28.00 56.83

22 SouthAfrica 35.18 33.24 29.07 55.44

23 India 39.64 49.53 34.18 46.14

24 Congo(Republicofthe) 39.73 44.00 32.00 58.67

25 Saudi Arabia 44.23 88.00 34.00 31.17

26 Bulgaria 45.44 37.90 32.34 92.28

27 Malaysia 46.15 60.88 38.50 54.38

<<EMIndustryAverage:47.43>>

28 Colombia 48.53 52.18 51.72 35.31

29 Mexico 50.97 63.71 42.87 62.50

30 Kuwait 52.77 88.00 36.00 67.83

31 Bahrain 53.00 77.00 48.00 44.00

32 UnitedArabEmirates 54.27 77.00 44.00 62.33

33 Brazil 57.28 66.76 45.67 82.63

34 Qatar 58.30 88.00 44.00 71.50


35 UK 70.09 81.47 67.15 67.52

36 USA 73.07 87.88 70.29 66.59

37 Australia 76.74 86.77 67.30 95.00


38 Netherlands 79.70 93.50 70.00 95.00

39 Denmark 79.70 93.50 70.00 95.00

40 Canada 80.74 95.92 70.93 95.00


Energy Contractors Industry Ratings & Indices


Manufacturing Industry Ratings & Indices

Overall Trade Credit Expropriation Regulatory & Legal Political Violence Business

Interuption

REGIONAL INDICES

Global 54.82 58.90 57.12 66.04 42.93

OECD 67.68 71.27 76.22 76.12 49.48


Latin America 51.82 46.44 47.92 70.92 46.10


EasternEurope 36.57 34.77 28.74 54.68 35.54

EmergingAsia 32.56 42.14 22.16 49.32 32.06

Key Manufacturers

1 Indonesia 26.15 42.24 23.11 32.11 20.87

2 Russia 26.48 38.65 18.79 38.22 24.84

3 China(PRC) 30.91 44.88 15.00 51.70 33.61

4 Philippines 34.23 32.44 37.68 40.28 26.18


5 Turkey 35.63 21.75 45.98 38.14 24.79

6 India 36.83 40.52 38.45 44.04 28.63

7 Vietnam 37.20 37.63 14.14 70.33 45.71

8 Malaysia 42.81 49.81 43.31 51.91 33.74

9 Mexico 48.07 52.13 48.23 59.66 38.78

10 Hungary 53.26 26.02 42.91 84.80 55.12

11 Bulgaria 52.45 31.01 36.38 88.09 57.26

12 China(Taiwan) 52.98 56.20 46.95 72.36 47.04



Overall Trade Credit Expropriation Regulatory & Legal

Political Violence

Business Interuption

Key Manufacturers

13 CzechRepublic 55.12 42.17 39.76 88.62 57.60

14 Poland 55.34 29.32 43.33 88.81 57.73

15 Brazil 57.17 54.62 51.38 78.88 51.27

16 Romania 58.67 30.59 53.26 86.85 56.45

17 UK 62.34 66.66 75.54 64.45 41.89

18 Spain 63.23 61.79 73.68 69.82 45.38

19 USA 63.93 71.90 79.07 63.56 41.31

20 France 65.83 80.12 80.51 64.85 42.16


21 Germany 73.98 73.50 79.35 88.33 57.41

22 Japan 74.06 73.29 73.22 94.78 61.61


Manufacturing Industry Ratings & Indices


Financial Institutions Industry Ratings & Indices

Overall Credit Sovereign DefaultCurrency

Inconvertibility & Transfer Risk

Trade Finance

INDUSTRY INDICES

Global 74.04 62.77 78.46 88.47 71.99

OECD 83.27 71.90 89.87 93.33 87.11

EU 79.81 69.00 86.25 89.99 81.51

EuroZone 82.46 71.22 89.03 92.57 85.73


Latin America 59.20 50.59 63.24 69.91 56.75


EasternEurope 43.91 36.48 45.59 54.70 42.49

EmergingAsia 57.53 58.70 73.38 78.99 51.51

KEY FINANCIAL CENTERS

1 Turkey 30.12 29.17 36.47 26.72 26.58

2 Hungary 30.55 28.63 35.79 27.86 31.80

3 SouthAfrica 34.95 30.55 38.19 39.42 33.24

4 CzechRepublic 56.96 47.98 59.97 70.50 51.55

5 Poland 57.96 50.59 63.24 73.31 35.83


6 Spain 71.03 60.83 87.29 90.90 65.52


7 Belgium 76.87 68.80 86.00 85.00 66.00

8 Italy 78.36 66.67 83.34 91.66 79.42

9 Portugal 78.48 68.21 85.27 89.23 75.70

10 UK 83.12 72.13 90.16 94.31 81.47

11 USA 83.18 72.19 90.23 91.82 87.88


12 Germany 84.35 73.02 91.28 93.35 89.83

13 Canada 86.08 74.00 92.50 95.05 95.92

14 France 86.40 74.21 92.76 94.95 97.92

15 Japan 87.22 74.45 93.06 98.86 89.57



Countries & Insurable RisksFeb. 2013 Sept. 2012 Change Trade

Credit

Currency Inconvertibility & Transfer Risk

Expropriation, Regulatory & Legal

Political Violence

Algeria 26.39 29.44 -3.06 45.00 50.00 10.00 21.67

Angola 25.56 25.56 0.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 31.67

Argentina 32.54 40.59 -8.05 21.36 33.52 10.10 60.10

Australia 86.97 85.31 1.66 78.88 94.19 84.13 90.24

Austria 82.78 82.78 0.00 55.00 90.00 87.50 88.33

Azerbaijan 36.39 36.39 0.00 40.00 45.00 20.00 46.67

Bangladesh 25.83 25.83 0.00 10.00 15.00 25.00 40.00

Belgium 82.22 83.06 -0.83 60.00 85.00 87.50 86.67

Bolivia 22.50 22.50 0.00 15.00 20.00 15.00 35.00

Brazil 66.20 63.21 3.00 60.69 72.11 57.09 75.12

Bulgaria 55.41 57.78 -2.38 34.45 49.34 40.43 83.89

Burma(Myanmar) 13.06 13.06 0.00 10.00 10.00 12.50 16.67

Canada 89.86 86.82 3.04 87.20 95.05 88.66 89.80

Chile 82.02 81.93 0.09 71.58 90.86 81.31 83.53

China(HongKong) 78.71 76.23 2.47 84.61 95.79 59.00 88.41

China(PRC) 53.59 48.64 4.95 49.87 95.00 26.67 49.24

China(Taiwan) 66.56 68.09 -1.53 62.45 94.77 52.17 68.92

Colombia 51.39 52.06 -0.68 47.44 67.40 64.65 32.10

Congo(DRC) 24.17 23.33 0.83 35.00 35.00 12.50 25.00

Congo(Republicofthe) 47.78 46.11 1.67 40.00 60.00 40.00 53.33

Cote d'Ivoire 12.50 12.50 0.00 10.00 25.00 10.00 10.00

CzechRepublic 62.42 66.18 -3.76 46.86 70.50 44.17 84.40

Ecuador 26.94 26.94 0.00 25.00 35.00 12.50 38.33

Egypt 27.78 31.94 -4.17 10.00 25.00 32.50 33.33

France 81.07 78.74 2.33 89.02 94.95 89.46 61.77

Gabon 52.22 52.22 0.00 30.00 70.00 45.00 61.67

Germany 86.60 83.95 2.65 81.66 93.35 88.16 84.12

Ghana 39.72 39.72 0.00 30.00 35.00 35.00 51.67

Greece 74.36 64.51 9.85 47.39 90.45 70.79 83.37

Hungary 52.27 52.20 0.08 28.91 27.86 47.68 80.76


Feb. 2013 Sept. 2012 Change Trade Credit

Currency Inconvertibility & Transfer Risk

Expropriation, Regulatory & Legal

Political Violence

India 47.32 44.07 3.25 45.03 69.58 42.73 41.94

Indonesia 33.93 35.05 -1.12 46.93 44.13 25.68 30.58

Italy 77.43 74.79 2.64 72.20 91.66 70.86 79.50

Japan 87.59 82.79 4.81 81.43 95.86 81.36 90.27

Kazakhstan 32.62 36.73 -4.12 28.15 29.79 6.72 62.16

Korea(South) 58.84 56.71 2.14 67.42 89.74 54.48 43.47

Kyrgyzstan 16.39 16.39 0.00 10.00 20.00 12.50 21.67

Malaysia 53.42 51.75 1.67 55.35 70.07 48.12 49.43

Mali 18.33 46.67 -28.33 20.00 50.00 10.00 10.00

Mexico 61.08 63.64 -2.56 57.92 87.73 53.59 56.82

Mongolia 37.22 39.72 -2.50 15.00 15.00 20.00 76.67

Morocco 58.61 58.61 0.00 60.00 70.00 57.50 53.33

Nigeria 21.95 17.82 4.13 13.73 33.80 24.28 17.80

Peru 51.20 51.19 0.01 50.53 52.03 46.45 55.87

Philippines 38.25 37.15 1.10 36.04 33.03 41.87 38.36

Poland 61.89 63.01 -1.12 32.57 73.31 48.14 84.58

Portugal 80.55 81.75 -1.20 68.81 89.23 79.33 83.31

Romania 62.43 60.34 2.09 33.99 56.83 59.18 82.72

Russia 36.37 32.54 3.83 42.94 60.72 20.87 36.40

Saudi Arabia 51.94 53.33 -1.39 80.00 90.00 42.50 28.33

Slovakia 71.94 71.94 0.00 50.00 85.00 65.00 83.33

SouthAfrica 40.52 39.68 0.83 30.22 39.42 36.33 50.40

Spain 76.05 75.11 0.93 68.66 90.90 81.86 66.49

Tajikistan 23.06 23.06 0.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 36.67

Thailand 32.68 35.24 -2.56 17.78 27.29 41.42 34.07

Tunisia 36.67 47.50 -10.83 45.00 50.00 37.50 25.00

Turkey 37.62 38.23 -0.61 24.16 26.72 51.09 36.32

Turkmenistan 26.67 26.67 0.00 10.00 15.00 12.50 55.00

UK 76.50 75.80 0.71 74.07 94.31 83.93 61.38

Ukraine 32.77 33.44 -0.66 22.70 24.06 34.08 40.86

USA 78.08 75.79 2.29 79.89 91.82 87.86 60.53

Uzbekistan 21.39 21.39 0.00 10.00 30.00 12.50 31.67

Venezuela 24.46 24.55 -0.09 32.61 7.77 18.29 34.90

Vietnam 38.28 40.43 -2.15 41.81 22.48 15.71 66.98


Sovereign Default Ratings


Regional Indices

Global 78.46

EuroZone 89.03

EmergingMarkets(All) 59.42

Latin America 63.24

MiddleEast&Africa 44.15

EasternEurope 45.59

EmergingAsia 73.38

Key Sovereigns

France 92.76

Germany 91.28

USA 90.23

UK 90.16

Spain 87.29

Belgium 86.00

Portugal 85.27

Italy 83.34

Brazil 66.10

Indonesia 36.75

Philippines 36.57

Argentina 24.15



Methodology & Definitions

Cross Border RisksTrade Credit (TC) | A sharp economic downturn or currency devaluation resulting in an increase in insolvencies, noticesofloss,orpaymentdelaysoncrossbordertransactionsincludingexportfinance,structuredfinance,commodityfinanceorondomestictransactionsincludingfactoring,purchaseorderfinancing,andassetbackedlending.

Currency Inconvertibility and Transfer Risk (CITR) | Conditionsorevents thatprevent theconversionof localcurrencyintohardcurrencyand/orpreventtherepatriationoffunds,suchasshortagesofhardcurrency,capitalcontrols,exchangerestrictions,andrestrictionsonrepatriationofprofits,dividends,orloanrepayments.

Foreign Direct Investment Risks Expropriation & Creeping Expropriation (ECE) | Conditions or events caused, directly or indirectly, by the actions orinactionofagoverningauthorityresultinginasignificantreductioninprofitabilityormakingtheprofitableconductofbusinessimpossibleincludingexpropriation,creepingexpropriation,andtheselectiveanddiscriminatoryimpositionoflawsorregulations..

Political ViolenceStrikes, Riots and Civil Commotion (SRCC) | Conditions or events, declared or undeclared, brought about by state or non-state actors resulting in property damage and/or business interruption, including protests, social unrest, violent civil disobedience, civil war, war, terrorism and sabotage.

Forafull listofdefinitions,includingdefinitionsfortheindustry-specificriskratingslistedinthisguide,pleasecontactAlliant.

Alliant’sriskratings&indicesprovideforward-lookingassessmentsoftherisksofdoingbusinessin150countriesandfocusonthelikelihoodofcompaniesexperiencingfinanciallossesasaresultofpolitical&economicevents.Alliant’sratings&indicesusea100pointscalereflectingtheprobabilityofaspecificriskeventresultinginabusinesslossover5yearswithconfidenceintervalsbetween75%to97%.ThetablebelowsummarizesAlliant’sratingsscale:

High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk

Rating/Index 0>10 10>20 20>30 30>40 40>50 50>60 60>70 70>80 80>90 90>100

Probability(%) 90>100 80>90 70>80 60>70 50>60 40>50 30>40 20>30 10>20 0>10


Alliant reserves the right, in its sole discretion, without any obligation and without any notice requirement, to change, improve or correct the information, materials and descriptions in this publication and/or any other publication. Alliant gives no guarantees, undertakings, or warranties concerning the accuracy, completeness, validity, or timeliness of the information provided. Independent confirmation of the accuracy of all information, including financial information, ratings, and indices contained herein or in other Alliant Emerging Markets publication is recommended. Any dated information is published as of its date only.

© 2013 Alliant Insurance Services, Inc.

Methodology & Definitions

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[email protected]: ABEM <GO>

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