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Political Perspectives on Immigration to Scotland Prof Christina Boswell, University of Edinburgh Conference on Immigration and the Referendum Debate COSLA, 7 February 2014, Edinburgh
Political Perspectives on Immigration to ScotlandProf Christina Boswell, University of EdinburghConference on Immigration and the Referendum DebateCOSLA, 7 February 2014, Edinburgh
Making Sense of the Debate 1. Does Scotland need more immigrants? Can it get them?
2. Public opinion and the politics of migration
3. Immigration policy after the referendum
Net Migration to/from Scotland
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/2000
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Net Migration to/from Scotland, 1981-2012Source: General Register Office
Share of Foreign-Born Population in Scotland
4,600,000
4,800,000
5,000,000
5,200,000
5,400,000
2001 2011
UK/non-UK Born ResidentsSource: Scotland Census 2001, 2011
UK born resident population Non-UK born resident population
Demographic Effects
Projected Population Structure for Scotland/UK (Office of National Statistics)
Inflows of Foreign Nationals to European Countries (1000s). Source: OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Germany
Spain
UK
Ireland
Current UK Immigration Policy: Points Based System
Tier 1 Highly-skilled (capped at 1,000)
Tier 2 Skilled with job offer (capped at 20,700)
Tier 3 Low-skilled (suspended from outset)
Tier 4 Students (more stringent conditions and oversight, cannot switch to Tier 1)
Tier 5 Temporary workers/youth mobility
Family migration: language requirement; minimum income £18,600 (partner), £22,400 (child)
2. Public OpinionImmigration as a salient policy issue across Europe
◦ Impact on jobs/wages
◦ Welfare and fairness
◦ Cultural impacts
◦ Are the Scottish more tolerant?
Increase/Decrease Immigration?
be increased remain the same be reduced0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: British Social Attitudes 2013
England Scotland Wales
Economic/cultural impacts
Bad Neither good nor bad Good0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Economic Impact
England Scotland Wales
undermined neither enriched0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cultural Impact
Political salience (source: IPSOS Mori, 2014)
3. After the ReferendumSNP proposals for an independent Scotland:
◦ Expanded points system, graduate labour market access
◦ Humane treatment for asylum-seekers
◦ Scotland within the Common Travel Area
Border control◦Schengen or CTA?
◦Border control and irregular migration
◦Constraints to an independent policy?
Outlook◦ Can Scotland attract migrants to reach population targets?
◦ More liberal immigration policy
◦ Attractive economic and social conditions
◦ Would it be an independent policy?
◦ Within CTA: possible concerns about irregular flows
◦ Will it garner public support?
◦ Need for cross-party consensus
◦ An Immigration Commission for Scotland?
