Should Scotland have its own Immigration Policy?

Prof. Allan Findlay1, Dr David McCollum1, Professor David Bell2 and Dr Jakub Bijak3

ESRC Centre for Population ChangeUniversity of St Andrews1, University of

Stirling2

University of Southampton3

27th February 2014

Structure of Presentation

• Context – what we know about Scotland and migration • Context – what we do not know – forecasts of migration• Demographic drivers of migration policy • Employer perspectives on migration – the policy implications• Economic perspectives and public opinion – policy

implications• Conclusions – migration policy options for Scotland

2

Net Migration to Scotland

Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1951-1

952

1954-1

955

1957-1

958

1960-1

961

1963-1

964

1966-1

967

1969-1

970

1972-1

973

1975-1

976

1978-1

979

1981-1

982

1984-1

985

1987-1

988

1990-1

991

1993-1

994

1996-1

997

1999-2

000

2002-2

003

2005-2

006

2008-2

009

2011-2

012

Year to 30 June

Pe

rso

ns

('0

00

s)

4

Percentage of usual residents in EU27 countries that are foreign born, 2011

• The proportion of foreign-born nationals in England is among the highest in the European Union

• Scotland’s foreign born population remains among the lowest.

Source: Authors own analysis of Eurostat, ONS and NRS data

What we know from the 2011 censusAgeing Scotland : Youthful Migrants

5

Scotland’s age structure, 2001-11

Migrants – 25-29 cohort: 15%Scottish – 25-29: 6.5%

Proportion of non-UK born population who arrived aged 0-4 years Scotland and England by region, 2011

Proportion of non-UK born population who arrived aged 25-29 years Scotland and England by region, 2011

Net migration to Scotland by age group

6

0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

rUK

Overseas

Num

ber o

f Mig

rant

s (N

et)

Net Migration Flows by Age Group: Scotland 2001-02 to 2010-11

What we know from the 2011 census;Scotland’s Global Reach

Is immigration to Scotland distinctive?

Origin of migrants

Scotland England

Place of BirthPercentage of non-UK born population

Place of Birth

Percentage of non-UK born

population

1 Poland 15.0% 1 India 9.3%2 India 6.4% 2 Poland 7.7%3 Republic of Ireland 6.2% 3 Pakistan 6.5%4 Germany 6.0% 4 Republic of Ireland 5.4%5 Pakistan 5.4% 5 Germany 3.6%6 United States of America 4.3% 6 Bangladesh 2.8%7 China 4.2% 7 Nigeria 2.6%8 South Africa 2.9% 8 South Africa 2.5%9 Nigeria 2.6% 9 United States of America 2.4%10 Canada 2.6% 10 Jamaica 2.2%

8

Top ten non-UK countries of birth in England and Scotland 2011

Source: Authors own analysis of 2011 Census (ONS and NRS)

Briefing Paper

What we do not know:Future Migration to/from Scotland• Migration forecasting is always a very uncertain

process • State of the art (NRS projections, 2012-based):

– Overall net migration: internal and international– Three variants, with net migration converging to +7,000

(Low), +15,500 (Base) and +24,000 (High) by mid-2018

• What our study adds:– Looking at different directions of migration flows– Probabilistic analysis and quantification of uncertainty– Formal combination of data series and expert opinion– Expert justifications for specific groups of migrants

CPC Internal and International Migration Forecasts

90%

80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

90%

80%

70%60%50%40%30%20%10%

What we do not know:Best estimates of migration futures • Future migration flows to and from Scotland are

highly uncertain• There is greatest uncertainty about international

immigration to Scotland• Emigration from Scotland will likely increase in the

near future, irrespective of the referendum outcome• Migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK

will remain at similar levels to the present, again largely regardless of the constitutional arrangement

Demographic drivers of migration policy• Current UK policy has no demographic driver – only

a net migration cap • Current Scottish Government has a demographic

target = ‘to match average EU15 population growth..2007-17’- (next slide shows it was on track to meet the target in four of the last six years - thanks to net migration gains)

‘It is important that we continue to attract more people of working age to Scotland’ (Scottish Government webpage: ‘Scotland Performs’)

‘With full control over immigration policy the Scottish Government would be able to set a controlled immigration policy framework that supports the needs of Scottish businesses, universities and ensure long-term economic success and prosperity for http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Performance/scotPerforms/purpose/population Scotland’

13

Immigration as a demographic driver linked to Scotland’s population target

14

Annual rates of population change: Scotland and EU15 average 1996-2012

Source: Eurostat and NRS data, cited in Packwood et al, 2014

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

EU 15 average annual population growth rate -Scottish annual population growth rate -

Annu

al p

opul

ation

gro

wth

ra

te

Disaggregation of migration matters

15

Scottish domiciled students (forecast)

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Africa Asia North America

Num

ber o

f stu

dent

s

Asia

Trends in key international student flows

North America

Africa

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2012/13

2015/16

2017/18

2019/20

2021/22

2023/24

2025/26

2027/28

2029/30

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

35000

Current Projected

Source: Authors’ analysis: 2002/03 – 2012/13 HESA data; Tindal, Findlay and Wright, forthcoming

Percentage of students from outside the UK, by region of origin and place of study, 2011-12

Source: Authors calculations, using HESA data 2011/12

Could Migration Policy be established for UK regions?

North East

Scotla

nd

South

West

North W

est

Yorkshire

and The Humber

East M

idlands

East

West

Midlan

ds

South

East

England

London

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 14%

37%

Prop

ortio

n of

non

-UK

born

Proportion of population born outside UK 2011

Source: NRS ONS data, cited in Packwood et al, 2013

Wages and Proportion of Foreign Born Residents (2012)

£440 £460 £480 £500 £520 £540 £560 £5800

5

10

15

20

25

8.15000000000001

London and South-East

Gross Weekly Wage (£)

Pro

po

rtio

n F

ore

ign

Bo

rn

Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2012, Annual Population Survey 2012

Employers views: immigration and constitutional change • Employer views

– Views on immigration policy (in context of constitutional change debate)

– Justifications for views on immigration policy – Preferences regarding future immigration policy in Scotland – Role in shaping immigration policy

• Policy implications

19

Importance of migration related issues, by sector (via 2013 online survey, 700+ responses)

20

Employer views: narratives

Signifiers of ‘value’ Narrative Demographic compensation for ageing of domestic population

‘We need more people in Scotland, not less… our population is getting older and that’s not a recipe for success… so we definitely need more migrants in Scotland’

Wayne. Inter-company organisation

Spurs economic growth and net fiscal benefit

‘High end immigration is what is required to drive the economy recovery…and these people are paying huge quantities of tax, so it makes no sense whatsoever to limit it’.

Paula, finance company

Fills skills and labour gaps ‘Dentists are in very short supply in Scotland… and Romania has got exactly the same dentistry qualification, so academically they are absolutely a hundred per cent qualified for the role’.

Daniel, recruitment firm

Positive work ethic of migrants They don’t rely on benefits… it’s not in their culture’. Thomas, hospitality recruitment firm

21

Employer preferences

• Support for freedom of movement within EU ‘The most important thing is the EU because the free movement of people and goods is vital for us… so it is important that Scotland, and the rest of the UK, remains in Europe’

James, representative, logistics & transport• UK immigration policy: (increasingly) restrictive and South-East centric ‘We definitely need migrants, the rest of the UK, actually sorry the South East of England in particular probably doesn’t need them and they have got some real problems with immigration… but Scotland’s problems in that area are not the same at all and we shouldn’t allow UK immigration to be dictated by London I’m afraid’.

Wayne, inter-company organisation• Pragmatic policy measures, but also positive political rhetoric ‘Alex Salmond has positively welcomed them [migrants] and said that they’ll be welcomed to Scotland… there’s the racism aspect down in England where they’re saying they’re all thieves, gypsies and beggars, so people are coming up to Scotland because they know that there’s less racism here’

Thomas, recruitment, hospitality

22

Immigration policy: employer influence

• Referendum: chance to press for a more favourable immigration policy

‘Our position of constitutional flux gives us scope to revise things that maybe looked a bit settled and to see if there are ways in which a policy environment can be formed to ur further advantage, for instance in relation to the Scottish immigration regime’.

Toby, representative, education

• Extent and efficacy of lobbying ‘Given that the Yes campaign makes a big deal out of the oil industry, they really need to talk to the oil industry... they’re engaging with organisations like the Wood Group because of Sir Ian Wood, but they are not engaging with the vast majority of other businesses that are actually supporting the sector and who produce more money for the UK than these guys do’.

Olivia, oil and gas

23

Employer research: policy implications • Employer views

– Sufficient grounds for a ‘different’ migration policy for Scotland– Current immigration policies oriented towards needs of South-East– Constitutional change debate: prospect of a more favourable immigration

regime in Scotland

24

NO - Scotland remains in the UK YES - Scotland leaves the UK

Opportunities

Sub-national immigration policies: distinct measures within broader UK framework

Political powers to enact its own immigration policies Relative public support/tolerance

Challenges Practical & political barriers to sub-national immigration policies Bound to ‘one size fits all’ UK immigration policy

Need a similar immigration policy to rest of UK to remain in the CTA No influence over EU migrationPublic hostility

The Political Economy of Migration

• Employer views important, but migration policy influenced by voter preferences

• Public perceptions generally negative:– labour market concerns, – welfare concerns, – racial or cultural concerns

• welfare concerns play a the more important role in determination of attitudes to further immigration than labour market concerns,

• strong evidence that racial or cultural prejudice is an important component to attitudes towards immigration; however, this is restricted to immigration from countries with ethnically different populations

Source: Dustmann and Preston (2007)

25

Hourly Wages of Immigrants 2012

26

Polan

d

Pakist

anOth

er

Scotla

nd

Repub

lic o

f Irel

and

North

ern

Irela

nd

Engla

nd

Wal

esIn

dia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

EnglandScotland

Country of Birth

Ho

url

y W

ag

e In

de

x R

ela

tiv

e t

o W

ag

e o

f N

ati

ve

s =

10

0

Country of Residence

Preferences for changes in immigration

27

Immigration good or bad?

28

Further evidence: COMPAS public opinion research October 2013; 4,200+ responses

29

• Scotland: more welcoming/less hostile towards migration– Scotland: 58% desire reductions in immigration– England & Wales: 75% desire reductions in immigration

• Support for Scotland controlling its own immigration policy– 60% Scottish Government, 31% UK government

• Yes voters less opposed to immigration than No voters – 58% of No voters desire a reduction in immigration – 28% of Yes voters desire a reduction in immigration

Voting intentions and attitudes to migration

30

Too low About right Too high Don't know0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

YesNoDon't know

Voting Intention

Do you think the level of migration into Scotland in the last decade has been:

Views on immigration post-independence

31

No opin

ion

More

imm

igra

nts, g

ood

More

imm

igra

nts, b

ad

Fewer im

mig

rants

, good

Fewer im

mig

rants

, bad

I don't t

hink

the o

utcom

e matte

rs0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

YesNoDon't know

Voting Intention

Views on immigration by age group

32

Too low About right Too high Don't know0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

16-2525-4950-6465+P

erc

en

t

UK Points Based System

The points-based system consists of five tiers. These are:

• Tier 1 - for highly skilled workers, such as scientists and entrepreneurs• Tier 2 - for skilled workers with a job offer, such as teachers and nurses• Tier 4 - for students• Tier 5 - for temporary workers, such as musicians coming to play in a

concert, and participants in the youth mobility scheme.• Tier 3 is currently suspended.

33

UK Points Based System

34

Source: Border Agency

Quebec Points Based System

35

Feasibility of sub-national immigration policy

• Political consent from both sub-national and national governments

– Acceptable to public(s)

– Effectiveness in meeting objective(s)

– Stable within devolved settlement

36

White Paper Proposals on Immigration

• “We plan to continue in the current Common Travel Area with the rest of the UK and Ireland.”

• “For non-EU nationals, independence will enable us to develop and operate a controlled, transparent and efficient immigration system. This Government will take forward a points-based approach targeted at particular Scottish requirements.”

• “We plan to lower the current financial maintenance thresholds and minimum salary levels for entry, to better align them with Scottish average wages and cost of living.”

• “This Government plans to reintroduce the post-study work visa.”• “We propose that a Scottish Asylum Agency should oversee asylum

applications.”

37

Constraints on immigration policywith independence (e.g. Ireland)

• Current UK-Ireland arrangements• Non-EEA nationals need a visa• Immigrants who take Irish citizenship would be eligible to travel to

UK• Irish naturalisation process. Applicants must:

• Be of good character • Have had a period of 1 year continuous reckonable residence in the

State immediately before the date of application and, during the 8 years preceding that, have had a total reckonable residence in the State amounting 4 years.

• Intend in good faith to reside in the State after naturalisation

38

Conclusions

• Demographic arguments may favour a positive policy approach in Scotland towards migration

• Employers recognise some economic benefits from immigration• Economic arguments need to be balanced against public opinion on

immigration • A distinctive migration policy has been mapped out in the White Paper,

but a devolved settlement could also shape immigration to fit Scotland’s needs

• Arguably, while an independent policy might have slightly stronger policy levers, a devolved migration policy might face fewer constraints in terms of implementation

39

Thank you for listening!

40

The following screen is for back up

41

Model and Method

Scotland to the rest of the UK

Independence

Gradual 2011-21

Gradual 2014-21

Gradual 2016-21

Step change in 2016

Status quo

Status quo

Migration

Scenario

Variant

The rest of the UK to Scotland

Overseas to Scotland

Scotland to overseas

Equal weights

… … … … …

Prediction of the referendum

outcome

• Forecasting approach: Bayesian time series model, with additional expert information