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Population and Global ResourcesPopulation and Global Resources
OutlineOutline
The need for population projections Population Projection Methods Global Statistics –
Population Energy Water
The need for population projections Population Projection Methods Global Statistics –
Population Energy Water
Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections
Needed by engineers and planners for the design of facilities and infrastructure (roads, mass transit, water supply, wastewater collection and treatment, schools, hospitals...)
Population projections rely on ________ population growth (trend line extrapolation) Models with various levels of sophistication based on
estimates of fertility and mortality
Needed by engineers and planners for the design of facilities and infrastructure (roads, mass transit, water supply, wastewater collection and treatment, schools, hospitals...)
Population projections rely on ________ population growth (trend line extrapolation) Models with various levels of sophistication based on
estimates of fertility and mortality
Historic
Population Projection MethodsPopulation Projection Methods
constant rate of growth
proportional to the population
Arithmetic progression Constant slope (___________________) Least squares regression line
Geometric progression The ratio between successive terms is constant Rate of growth is ________________________
at the beginning of each time period
Arithmetic progression Constant slope (___________________) Least squares regression line
Geometric progression The ratio between successive terms is constant Rate of growth is ________________________
at the beginning of each time period
Geometric ModelGeometric Model
Difference Equation
WithWith N(0) = 10, r = 0.2 [1/t], N(0) = 10, r = 0.2 [1/t], t = 0.5 [t]t = 0.5 [t]
N(1) = 12.1N(1) = 12.1
N(2) = 14.6N(2) = 14.6
N(10) = 67.3N(10) = 67.3
Geometric progressionGeometric progression
Future population
Present population
Population growth
020406080
0 2 4 6 8 10time
popu
latio
n N when delta t is 0.5
N t t N t N t r t( ) ( ) ( )
Geometric ModelGeometric Model
The results of the difference equation are a function of the _______used
The results of the difference equation are a function of the _______used
002020404060608080
00 22 44 66 88 1010timetime
popu
lati
onpo
pula
tion
1010
tt
5522 11
0.50.50.10.1
time step
Exponential growth modelExponential growth model
no resource limitationsno competition among individuals
Similar to geometric progression Specific rate of growth is constant (growth rate
per individual is independent of the population density)
Limit of the geometric growth model where the time interval goes to zero
Under what conditions might this occur? Frequently observed with new populations ___________________________________ ___________________________________
Similar to geometric progression Specific rate of growth is constant (growth rate
per individual is independent of the population density)
Limit of the geometric growth model where the time interval goes to zero
Under what conditions might this occur? Frequently observed with new populations ___________________________________ ___________________________________
Exponential Growth Model: Derivation
Exponential Growth Model: Derivation
Specific rate of growth is constant
N = size of the populationN0 = initial size of the populationt = timet0 = initial timer = growth rate
rdtN
dN rdtN
dN
dNN
rdtN
N t
t
t
( )
( )
0 0
XZY z
dNNdt
rNormalized by the total amount
N t dt N t N t rdt( ) ( ) ( )
N t dt N tN t
rdt( ) ( )
( )
Geometric Model tdN
growth rate
Exponential Growth Model Equations
Exponential Growth Model Equations
00lnln rtrtNtN 00lnln rtrtNtN
)(0
ln 0ttrN
tN
)(0
ln 0ttrN
tN
0
0ln rtrtN
tN
0
0ln rtrtN
tN
e
ttr
N
tN )( 0
0
e
ttr
N
tN )( 0
0
bmxy bmxy
N t Nr t t
eaf af 0 0( )
Linearized form: the Linearized form: the slope (m) will be the slope (m) will be the _______ _____._______ _____.
Geometric/Exponential Model Comparison
Geometric/Exponential Model Comparison
t 1r 0.2N(0) 10t(0) 0
0
20
40
60
80
0 2 4 6 8 10time
popu
lati
onN when delta t is 1Exponential Model
ManhattanManhattan
Manhattan PopulationManhattan Population
00
10000001000000
20000002000000
30000003000000
16001600 17001700 18001800 19001900 20002000
yearyear
popu
lati
onpo
pula
tion
Brooklyn Bridge Completed: 1883
What resources limited the growth rate?
Component methodComponent method
fertility and mortality
Divide base population into age, gender, economic, ethnic components
Apply ___________________ rates to each component
Assume trends for future immigration and emigration and apply fertility and mortality rates to these groups as well
Divide base population into age, gender, economic, ethnic components
Apply ___________________ rates to each component
Assume trends for future immigration and emigration and apply fertility and mortality rates to these groups as well
Population Pyramids(by country)
Population Pyramids(by country)
Application of component method to nations
Application of component method to nations
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
Global StatisticsGlobal Statistics
Population growth Resource Utilization
Energy Vehicles Water
Population growth Resource Utilization
Energy Vehicles Water
Urban PopulationUrban Population
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
mil
lion
s
West Asia
North America
Latin America and theCaribbean
Europe and Central Asia
Asia and the Pacific
Africa
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
mil
lion
s
Rural
Urban
Urban population is overtaking rural population
Urban and Developed World footprints
The Footprint of the Developed World
The Footprint of the Developed World
North America, Europe and parts of East Asia consume immense (unsustainable) quantities of energy and raw materials, and produce high volumes of wastes and polluting emissions…
that cause environmental damage on a global scale (notably climate change) and widespread pollution and disruption of ecosystems, often in countries far removed from the site of consumption.
Wealthy industrialized countries control pollution locally but the wider-scale impacts (apart from ozone depletion) have yet to be tackled effectively.
North America, Europe and parts of East Asia consume immense (unsustainable) quantities of energy and raw materials, and produce high volumes of wastes and polluting emissions…
that cause environmental damage on a global scale (notably climate change) and widespread pollution and disruption of ecosystems, often in countries far removed from the site of consumption.
Wealthy industrialized countries control pollution locally but the wider-scale impacts (apart from ozone depletion) have yet to be tackled effectively.
Energy ConsumptionEnergy Consumption
0 50 100 150 200
Africa
Asia and the Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and theCaribbean
North America
West Asia
Total Energy Consumption (Pj)
0 100 200 300 400
Per Capita Energy Consumption (Gj)
1015 P "Peta"
1012 T "Tera"
109 G "Giga"
106 M"Mega"
103 k "kilo"
1015 P "Peta"
1012 T "Tera"
109 G "Giga"
106 M"Mega"
103 k "kilo"
How much does How much does a Gj of electricity a Gj of electricity cost?cost?
Energy conversions
What are the What are the energy costs per energy costs per person?person?
Motor VehiclesMotor Vehicles
Transport now accounts for _____ of world energy use _____ of the world's oil production
motor vehicles account for nearly ___ % of all transport-related energy
Transport is/causes a major contributor to greenhouse gas
emissions urban air pollution substantial land use habitat degradation and fragmentation
Transport now accounts for _____ of world energy use _____ of the world's oil production
motor vehicles account for nearly ___ % of all transport-related energy
Transport is/causes a major contributor to greenhouse gas
emissions urban air pollution substantial land use habitat degradation and fragmentation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
198
0
199
0
199
6
year
mill
ion
s
West Asia
North America
Latin America andthe Caribbean
Europe andCentral Asia
Asia and thePacific
Africa
1/41/41/21/2
8080
FreshwaterFreshwater
The declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the coming century
About 20 % of the world's population lacks access to safe drinking water and about 50 % lacks adequate sanitation
Worldwide, polluted water is estimated to affect the health of about 1.2 billion people and to contribute to the death of about 15 million children under five every year (ICWE 1992).
The declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the coming century
About 20 % of the world's population lacks access to safe drinking water and about 50 % lacks adequate sanitation
Worldwide, polluted water is estimated to affect the health of about 1.2 billion people and to contribute to the death of about 15 million children under five every year (ICWE 1992).
Measures of PovertyMeasures of Poverty
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
malnourished children
people not expectedto survive to age 40
people lackinghealth services
illiterate adults
people lackingsafe water
people who areincome-poor
millions
Water Supply – Global Coverage in 2000
Water Supply – Global Coverage in 2000
0 – 25%26 – 50%51 – 75%76 – 90%91 – 100%Missing data
What do the countries with the poorest coverage share?
Water Supply Coverage for Developing Countries
Water Supply Coverage for Developing Countries
24%
49%66%
47%
38%
32%
19%
31%
19% 15% 22%38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Africa Asia LA & C Total
No access
Other access
Householdconnection
Water Supply in the Largest Cities
Water Supply in the Largest Cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Africa
Asia
LA &
C
N. Am
er.
Ocean
ia
Europ
e
Unserved
Others
Borehole or handpump
Public tap
House connection oryard tap
Mean percentage of population with each type of serviceMean percentage of population with each type of service
What are the implications of being “unserved?”
Treated Urban WastewaterTreated Urban Wastewater
0%
35%
14%
66%
90%
no data0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Africa Asia LA & C N.Amer.
Oceania Europe
Goals for Sustainable Development Related to Water
Goals for Sustainable Development Related to Water
Ensure the adequate supply and efficient use of water for agricultural, industrial, urban and rural development
Ensure adequate access of the poor majority to clean water for domestic use and small scale agriculture
Ensure adequate protection of watersheds, aquifers and freshwater ecosystems and resources
Ensure the adequate supply and efficient use of water for agricultural, industrial, urban and rural development
Ensure adequate access of the poor majority to clean water for domestic use and small scale agriculture
Ensure adequate protection of watersheds, aquifers and freshwater ecosystems and resources
economic
social
environmental
The ChallengeThe Challenge
All population growth is expected to occur in developing nations
Rural population is expected to stabilize at around 3.2 billion (from 2.97 billion today)
The growing population will settle in urban areas. The challenge is to provided the basic
infrastructure required by nearly 2 billion new urban residents in the developing world by 2025.
All population growth is expected to occur in developing nations
Rural population is expected to stabilize at around 3.2 billion (from 2.97 billion today)
The growing population will settle in urban areas. The challenge is to provided the basic
infrastructure required by nearly 2 billion new urban residents in the developing world by 2025.
SummarySummary
Global Human Population Resource Utilization
Unsustainable Wealthy industrialized countries cause environmental
damage on a global scale Unjust
Water Challenge of providing clean drinking water and treating
wastewater as population grows, resources are stretched, and global climate changes
Energy…Our information technology revolution will fail if it continues to run on coal and oil
Global Human Population Resource Utilization
Unsustainable Wealthy industrialized countries cause environmental
damage on a global scale Unjust
Water Challenge of providing clean drinking water and treating
wastewater as population grows, resources are stretched, and global climate changes
Energy…Our information technology revolution will fail if it continues to run on coal and oil
GEO-2000 regions GEO-2000 regions
Energy CostsEnergy Costs
8$0.10 $2.8 10 $283600 1000hr kW
kW hr s W J GJ
-´× × = =
×
If all of our energy use was electricity our annual energy cost would be
350 $28$9,700 /
GJperson
Capita GJ× =
•Electricity is the most expensive form of energy.
•We pay for our energy at many different places.
Taxes, gasoline, firewood, anything we purchase!