New EC-JRC/IIASA Centre of Expertise on

Population and Migration

Brussels, 20 June 2016

Wolfgang Lutz & Anne Goujon

World Population Program, IIASA

Objectives

•  Provide multi-dimensional assessments of different possible future population trends in the EU as well as in the main regions of origin in Europe, Africa and Western Asia (including the effects of EU policies on these trends).

•  Assess the longer-term impacts of alternative migration scenarios (in terms of volume, age, gender, education, labour force participation etc.) for the EU with respect to population ageing and the productivity of the EU labour force.

Link with the KCMD (Knowledge Centre for Migration & Demography) •  The Centre of Expertise will collaborate with the KCMD

in the following activities:

Ø Understanding of the root causes, migration incentives and determinants

Ø Modelling the impact of migration on demographics Ø Anticipating future demographic trends and developing

scenarios and foresight Ø Helping with organizing relevant workshops, networking

with experts and academia, contributing to "flagship" publications and science-for-policy briefs.

Filling a research gap for ageing Europe

•  There is a need to strengthen research in the EU to assess the longer-term implications of migration- and population-related challenges comprehensively.

•  The 2015 “Ageing Report” of the EC provides an assessment of the economic and budgetary challenges associated with demographic change in the 28 member States up to 2060.

•  But this assessment is based on a demographic scenario assuming relatively moderate migration into the EU.

Why JRC and IIASA?

•  The Joint Research Centre is the in-house science and knowledge service of the Commission. It can vouch more than ten years of research experience in migration-related topics and is leading in modelling / foresight studies.

•  Founded in 1972, IIASA is an international scientific institute that conducts policy-oriented research into problems that are too large or too complex to be solved by a single country or academic discipline. IIASA has already developed the methods of multi-dimensional population dynamics that explicitly incorporate characteristics such as education and labour force participation in addition to age and gender.

Building on existing work

•  IIASA recently produced a comprehensive summary of global demographic trends with alternative scenarios by level of education, age and gender for all countries in the world.

•  These scenarios form the “human core” of the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) that are used by Integrated Assessment and climate change research groups around the world.

Illustrations of multi-dimensional population dynamics

•  Show the changing age pyramids by level of education for the newest EU member Croatia.

•  Show alternative scenarios for future labour force participation by level of education in the EU.

•  Show alternative SSP scenarios for Africa’s biggest country Nigeria, which will be combined with different scenarios on economic development and climate impacts to assess future out-migration pressures.

Source: Wittgenstein Centre Data explorer (2015)

Women’s labour force participation rates for all EU28 countries combined, by education, age, and sex, 2015

Source: Adapted from Loichinger (2015)

Education specific labour force projections for the EU

Total labour force in EU26 countries, 2003-2053, by scenario, considering education (solid lines) or not (dotted lines)

Benchmark Scenario

Cohort scenario

Constant scenario

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

Potential economic dependency ratio in EU26 countries, 2008-2003, considering education (solid lines) or not (dotted lines)

Constant scenario

Cohort scenario

Benchmark scenario

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Source: Adapted from Loichinger (2015)

Population of Nigeria by level of education

Population 57 Million Population 158 Million

Source: Wittgenstein Centre Data explorer (2015)

1970 2010

SSP1: Rapid social development: Sustainability / Rapid technology / High environmental Awareness / Low energy demand / Medium-high economic growth /Low population growth / Increase in human capital

SSP3: Stalled development: Fragmentation / Slow technology / Development (dev-ing) Reduced trade / Very slow economic growth/ Very high population growth / Stagnation in human capital

Source: Wittgenstein Centre Data explorer (2015)

Future population of Nigeria by level of education

working age pop. w. low edu: 49% pop. <20: 52%

working age pop. w. low edu: 52% pop. <20 : 53%

Population 178 million Population 181 million

2015 Population 199 million Population 206 million

working age pop. w. low edu: 41% pop. <20: 51%

working age pop. w. low edu: 49% pop. <20 : 53%

2020

working age pop. w. low edu: 33% pop. <20: 48%

working age pop. w. low edu: 46% pop. <20 : 53%

Population 221 million Population 235 million

2025

working age pop. w. low edu: 27% pop. <20: 46%

working age pop. w. low edu: 44% pop. <20 : 53%

Population 243 million Population 268 million

2030

working age pop. w. low edu: 21% pop. <20: 43%

working age pop. w. low edu: 43% pop. <20 : 53%

Population 266 million Population 305 million

2035

working age pop. w. low edu: 16% pop. <20: 41%

working age pop. w. low edu: 42% pop. <20 : 53%

Population 289 million Population 345 million

2040

working age pop. w. low edu: 12% pop. <20: 39%

working age pop. w. low edu: 41% pop. <20 : 52%

Population 312 million Population 389 million

2045

working age pop. w. low edu: 9% pop. <20: 37%

working age pop. w. low edu: 41% pop. <20 : 51%

Population 333 million Population 435 million

2050

working age pop. w. low edu: 7% pop. <20: 35%

working age pop. w. low edu: 41% pop. <20 : 50%

Population 352 million Population 482 million

2055

working age pop. w. low edu: 5% pop. <20: 32%

working age pop. w. low edu: 41% pop. <20 : 48%

Population 370 million Population 529 million

2060

Workplan of JRC/IIASA Centre

•  The cooperation is to be based on equal partnership between the two research institutions.

•  A team of 10 researchers will be dedicated to the task (5 at IIASA, 5 at JRC-Ispra).

•  Collaboration will also include Eurostat and “Population Europe” (a consortium of demographic research centres in Europe).

Structure of work: •  Component (a): Analysis of “Push Factors” in Africa and

Western Asia and “Facilitating Factors”, •  Component (b): Analysis of “Pull Factors” in the EU, •  Component (c): Modelling of alternative possible migration

streams and their impacts on population ageing and its economic consequences in the EU.

Time Line

•  June 2016, Launch of the project

•  March 2017, Pilot studies for potential sending counties •  Mid 2017, Definition of alternative migration scenarios,

Report on Component (a) – Sending countries •  February 2018: Report on Component (b) - EU •  December 2018: Report on Component (c) – Results

from alternative migration scenarios. Finalisation of model runs and final report.

Science –Policy Interactions throughout the project