126
Real-world population calamities in seemingly “empty” environments?
Real-worldpopulation calamities
in
seemingly “empty” environments?
THREE classical real-world examples of population calamities in environments that remain 99.998% unoccupied
2/1000ths of 1% occupied
THREE classical real-world examples of population calamities in environments that remain 99.998% unoccupied
2/1000ths of 1% occupied
Real-world population-environment calamities, die-offs, and mass mortalities in ‘too-late’ / ‘vast open-space’ / ‘almost entirely empty’ conditions as depicted in this image
2/1000ths of 1% occupied
Look at the tiny2/1000ths of 1% dot
in this image
and imagine the most intelligent possible individuals
residing there
Which, if any, members of such a population could be
convinced that their population faced a calamitous
population-environmentdie-off and collapse
when such vast amountsof ‘open-space ’ appear to
remain seemingly available?
We are covering this because it has possible implications for us
There is a widely-held misperception within much of society that human population growth and overpopulation cannot become
truly serious so long as “vast amounts of open space”appear to remain theoretically-available
The “Open-Space” Delusion
These seemingly innateor intuitive
“open-space”suppositions can be
exceptionally dangerous
because they tempt us into complacency
This presentation outlines THREE separate, classical,and catastrophic real-world population outcomes (and die-offs)
at tiny fractions of one percent thresholds
This presentationassesses such
“vast open-space” suppositions
mathematically
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s fo
r th
e th
ree
clas
sica
l exa
mpl
es
that
we
use
is o
utlin
ed in
the
pre
sent
atio
n’s
adde
nda
Imagine a real-worldpopulation of organisms
surrounded by ‘vastamounts of open-space’
in surroundingsthat remain 99.998%
unoccupied
and which, visually-speaking, appears to remain
almost entirely empty
2/1000ths
of one percent
For the population in the above tiny white dot, the moment in time
depicted here was already “too-late”
2/1000ths
of one percent
Too-late conditions?
Imagine, then, a population whose combined bodies
(or cells)physically-occupy an area
equal to the tiny white dot in this image
which constitutes2/1000ths of one percent
of thered rectangle inwhich it resides
2/1000ths
of one percent
Too-late conditions?
Notice that it would benearly impossible for even the brightest scholars and leaders
of such a population
to realize that the population-environment conditions
depicted here
are ALREADY “too-late”
And that at this point in time,both they and members
of their population
will have alreadywaited TOO-LONG
This presentation will review three classical real-worldexamples of population-environment calamities
in environments that remain 99.998% unoccupiedand which appear to remain ALMOST ENTIRELY EMPTY
In all three classical examples, the populations involvedexperienced 99%-plus die-offs and/or other mass mortalities
even as their combined bodies (or cells) physically-occupiedroughly 2/1000ths of one percent of the surroundings that appeared
to remain theoretically-available to them
2/1000ths
of one percent
Too-late conditions?
We will see that for all three examples that we cover, the 2/1000ths of 1%
conditions denoted by the tinywhite dot in this image
already constitute too-late
conditions,
and at the point in time depicted here, for
all three real-world populations it will already be too late,
and they will have alreadywaited too-long
What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet
Copyright 2012, The Wecskaop Project.All rights reserved.
This presentation is a courtesy of
The Wecskaop Project
What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet
Copyright 2012, The Wecskaop Project.All rights reserved.
This presentation is a courtesy of
The Wecskaop Project
It is entirely free for use by scientists, students, and
educators anywhere in the world.
Biospherics Literacy 101(Five PowerPoints / Five Days)
There are five PowerPoints in this open-courseware collection
Biospherics Literacy 101(Five PowerPoints / Five Days)
1 – World Population and Core Demo- graphics – An Introductory Overview
2 – Ecological Services and Biospheric Machinery
3 – Real-world population-environ- ment calamities in seemingly ‘empty’ environments?
4 – Earth’s Thin Films - Thin Surface layers of Atmosphere, Oceans, and Seas
5 – Exponential and Non-linear Growth in Population Systems
This presentation is about
Climb-and-collapse outcomes in real-world population systems
Population calamities in seemingly “vast open-space” environments
Population explosions that induce calamity by their secretion of wastes
U.N. human population projections to the end of this century
and 2/1000ths of 1%
We are covering this because it has possible implications for us
Climb and collapse outcomes really happen and we are not immune
Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually appear to be almost entirely empty
Collapse with 99% mortality is a biological reality
We are not immune to collapse, and compared to any other animals or dinoflagellates that have ever lived, we are behaving very badly
Three real-world examples of calamity in tiny fractions of 1% “vast open-space” conditions
Plus , two classical real-world climb-and-collapse examples in separate mammalian populations
Climb-and-collapseThis presentation is also about
Our release of wastes, which shows a disquieting
similarity with population explosions of red-tide dinoflagellates
Dinoflagellate red-tides as quintessential examples of population explosions that induce calamity by the release of wastes
The fact that calamities can arise from wastes eradication, and damage
(as opposed to “running-out-of” things)
This presentation is also about
We
are
cove
ring
this
bec
ause
it h
as p
ossi
ble
impl
icat
ions
for
us
Our own trajectory which may well be far worse than outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide because we supplement our biological and metabolic wastes with a daily, and growing worldwide on- slaughts of industrial and societal wastes
While outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide can be
categorized as localized events, our own species exerts impacts that are global in extent
Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually-appear to be almost entirely empty
Earth’s atmosphere and seas as onion-skin-thin and superficial surface films
This presentation is also about
Example one -Dinoflagellate red-tides
Populationcalamities
in seemingly‘empty’
environments:
Threeclassical
real-worldexamples
The dot in this image reflects one of nature’s quintessential real-world
population-environment calamities:
The dot in this image denotes 2/1000ths of 1% of its rectangle
an outbreak of
Dinoflagellate red-tide
In two OTHER classical studieswe will see that the organisms
involved have also already
and have already passed a critical population-environment
tipping-point
so that the white dot in these images depicts conditions that
are already
TOO LATE
waitedtoo long
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
pres
enta
tion
app
endi
ces
Red-tideDinoflagellates
One-celled marine organisms called dinoflagellates
constitute one ofnature’s quintessential
examples of
population explosions that induce calamity by
their productionof wastes
For example, adinoflagellate
red-tide
along the coast of Texasin 1997-1998
killed an estimated 21 million fish
Bus
haw
-New
ton,
K.L
. an
d S
elln
er,
K.G
. 19
99.
Har
mfu
l Alg
al B
loom
sIN
: N
OA
A’s
Sta
te o
f th
e C
oast
Rep
ort,
Silv
er S
prin
g, M
D.
Bus
haw
-New
ton,
K.L
. an
d S
elln
er,
K.G
. 19
99.
Har
mfu
l Alg
al B
loom
sIN
: N
OA
A’s
Sta
te o
f th
e C
oast
Rep
ort,
Silv
er S
prin
g, M
D.
Other individual outbreaks have
resulted in the deaths
of an estimated 150 tons of fish as well as
manatees andother marine organisms
One species of dinoflagellate known for such outbreaks is
Karenia brevis
of seemingly "vast amounts of open-space" that appear to
remain theoretically available
less than 2/1000 ths of one percent
Real-world population explosions of Karenia brevis manage to inflict
such population disasters even as their populations of 1,000,000 cells
per liter physically-occupy
Recall, then, the tinywhite dot in this image
which depicts in amathematically-correct way
2/1000ths of 1%
of the rectangle in which it resides
In other words, the population-explosions of dinoflagellates
in red-tide outbreaks produce
population-environment calamities
in environments thatvisually-appear to remain
almost entirely empty
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s is
set
for
th in
our
app
endi
ces
Look again at the2/1000ths of 1% dot
in this image
and imagine the most intelligent possible individuals
residing there
Which, if any, members of such a population could be
convinced that their own species faced a calamitous
environmental threshold
when such vast amounts ofopen-space appear
to remain seemingly available?
In other words, they undergo and induce
population-environmentcalamities
by their production and release of wastes
in environments thatvisually-appear to be
almost entirely empty
This set of conditions would seem to be
worth noting, perhaps,
since our own speciesappears to exhibit
an extraordinarily similarpattern of behavior
Unlike red-tide dinoflagellates,however, our own species
does not confine itself
to releasing
only
our biological andmetabolic wastes into our
surroundings
Instead, each day, on a worldwide basis, we supplement
our biological wastes,
in a way that is unprecedented in the history of life on earth,
with billions of tons of societal and industrial wastes
so that we may be embarked upon a trajectory that is not only
worse
than that ofred-tide dinoflagellates
but may be multiple orders of magnitude worse, at that
This, of course, is not to necessarily suggest a direct applicability
of dinoflagellate impacts andtrajectories
to humanity’s own globaltrajectories and impacts today
However, the fact that dinoflagellate populations can induce calamity
by their productionand release of wastes
even when seemingly“vast amounts of open-space”
appear to remaintheoretically-available
would seem to be worth noting
since our own species appears to exhibit an extraordinarily similar pattern of behavior
It is also worth noting that whileK. brevis cells release only their
biological, cellular, andmetabolic wastes
into their surroundings,
our own speciessupplements
its biological wastes with daily, worldwide, and ever-increasing
avalanches of industrialand societal wastes
No other animals do this,
and
no other animals inthe history of
the earth
have EVER done this
No other animals do this,
and
no other animals inthe history of
the earth
have EVER done this
And we are doing so on a global scale in lessthan a single human lifetime
so that our own species may, perhaps,
be on a trajectorythat is not only
Worse
than that of an outbreak of red-tide
dinoflagellates,
but may be multiple orders of magnitude worse at that
Also, outbreaks of red-tide, while catastrophic, are at least
relatively localized events
While our own populationexplosion, however, encompasses the
entire earth’s biosphere
as do the damages, wastes, impacts, and eradications that we inflict
But we aresmarter
than a populationof mindless one-celled
dinoflagellates
aren’t we?
Dinoflagellates, for example, have not devised
Bulldozers, chain saws, tools, and machines to quickly eradicate entire forests,
Long-lines, radar, and GPS to catch entire schools of fish,
Automobiles, coal mines, and power plants to pump green- house gases into the atmosphere
Nor ways to pollute earth’s waters and drain aquifers and
eradicate water bodies like the Aral Sea
throughout the entire world all at the same time
in less than a single human lifetime
Of course we are smarter than dinoflagellates, aren’t we?
Dinoflagellates, for example, have not devised
Bulldozers, chain saws, tools, and machines to quickly eradicate entire forests,
Long-lines, radar, and GPS to catch entire schools of fish,
Automobiles, coal mines, and power plants to pump green- house gases into the atmosphere
Nor ways to pollute earth’s waters and drain aquifers and
eradicate water bodies like the Aral Sea
throughout the entire world all at the same time
in less than a single human lifetime
Of course we are smarter than dinoflagellates, aren’t we?
Which means that we aresmarter, right?
but they also allow us to multiply and amplifyour individual and collective impacts,
damage, and eradications
more quickly, completely, and efficientlythan any other animals that have ever lived
In other words, our ingenuity and technologies not only allowus to not only produce far more wastes more quickly
than cells of red-tide dinoflagellates
but they also allow us to multiply and amplifyour individual and collective impacts,
damage, and eradications
more quickly, completely, and efficientlythan any other animals that have ever lived
In other words, our ingenuity and technologies not only allowus to not only produce far more wastes more quickly
than cells of red-tide dinoflagellates
and to do so on a global scalein less than a single human lifetime
All of which may not necessarilyqualify as especially “smart,” right?
End of part one
Part Two
Climb-and-collapse
Real-world Climb-and-collapseTwo classical examples
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
appe
ndic
es O
NE
and
TW
O
We are covering this because
it has possible implications for us
First, note these two classic Climb-and-collapsepopulation studies of reindeer herds
Scheffer, 1951 Klein, 1968
Sch
effe
r, V
.B.,
1951
. T
he r
ise
and
fall
of a
rei
ndee
r he
rd, S
cien
tifi
c M
onth
ly 7
3:35
6-36
2
Kle
in, D
.R.,
1968
. The
Int
rodu
ctio
n, I
ncre
ase,
and
Cra
sh o
f Rei
ndee
r on
St
. Mat
thew
Isl
and.
Jou
rnal
of W
ildl
ife
Man
agem
ent 3
2: 3
50-3
67.
Notice that each reindeer herd exhibited a classic
Scheffer, 1951 Klein, 1968
Climb-and-collapsepopulation
curve
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
appe
ndic
es O
NE
and
TW
O
In each case, an initial period of exponential growth was followed by a
Scheffer, 1951 Klein, 1968
99%-plus die-off
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
appe
ndic
es O
NE
and
TW
O
of surroundings that, visually-speaking, appeared to remain theoretically-available to them at the time of the collapse
Secondly we note that each reindeer population physically-occupied
roughly 2/1000ths of 1%
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
appe
ndic
es O
NE
and
TW
O
So that both classical die-offs BEGAN (and proceeded) inenvironments that visually appeared to remain
almost entirely empty
Supp
orti
ng m
athe
mat
ics
is p
oste
d in
ap
pend
ices
ON
E a
nd T
WO
approximately 99.998% EMPTY
Sup
port
ing
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
appe
ndic
es O
NE
and
TW
O
So that both classic die-offs BEGAN (and proceeded) in environmentsthat visually appeared to remain almost entirely empty
Supporting mathematics is posted in
appendices ONE and TWO
Right: Human population growth 8000 BC to present
(and now rocketing upward?)
Below: Note the reindeer rocketing upward before their 99% die-off
Compare these two graphs
Do you see anydisquieting similarities?
Which upward trajectory ismore pronounced and more extreme?
Compare these two graphs
More disquieting still, the real-world numbers that actually emerge
could turn out to be
than the medium-fertility U.N. estimates
very much larger
If worldwide fertility levels average just
½ child per woman higher
than the U.N.’s medium-fertility projections,
we will find ourselveson-track toward
15.8 billion by 2100
Bil
lion
s 7,
8, 9
, 10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
and
15
are
base
don
U.N
. hig
h- f
erti
lity
pro
ject
ions
to 2
100
Even the most intelligent, thoughtful, and educated members of a highly-intelligent species living in such
“vast open-space” conditions
would find it difficult (if not impossible) to imagine
either the degree or the proximity
of the too-late population-environment dangers and
calamities
that are about toovertake them
when so much surrounding open-space appears to remain seemingly-
available
Yet, all three of the classical examples used in this presentation, for instance,
show quite powerfully that if the scholars and leaders of any of these
three populations were to
WAIT
until the conditions depicted inthe image shown here develop
at this point, they would havealready waited
Too-long
In 1911 in the V. B. Scheffer study, 25 reindeer were introduced to
41 square mile St. Paul Island, Alaska
Scheffer, 1951
by 1938, their population peakedat more than 2000 reindeer – yet
by 1950 only eight remained
At their peak population of morethan 2000 reindeer (shown here)
their combined bodies physically-occupied roughly
2/1000ths of 1%of the island
upon which they lived
Supporting mathematics is posted in
appendices ONE and TWO
Scheffer, 1951
Sch
effe
r, V
.B.,
1951
. T
he r
ise
and
fall
of a
rei
ndee
r he
rd, S
cien
tifi
c M
onth
ly 7
3:35
6-36
2
Scheffer, 1951 And then they underwent a
even as, taken together, their combined bodies physically-
occupied only a tiny
of their seemingly-available environment
99% - plus die-off
fraction of one percent
In 1944, 29 reindeer were introduced to 128 square mile
St. Matthew Island, Alaska
Klein, 1968
by 1963, their population peakedat more than 6000 reindeer
and fell to 42 remaining in 1964
Klein, 1968
At their peak population of more than6000 reindeer (shown here)
their combined bodies physically-occupied about
2/1000ths of 1%of the island
upon which they lived
Supporting mathematics is posted in
appendices ONE and TWO
Klein, 1968
And then they underwent a
even as, taken together, their combined bodies physically-
occupied only a tiny
of their seemingly-available environment
99% - plus die-off
fraction of one percent
Notice therefore that both herds underwent a
99% - plus die-off
roughly 2/1000ths of 1%
even as their combined bodiesphysically-occupied a tiny
fraction of one percent
of the “vast quantities of open-space” that seemed to remain
theoretically-available
In nature, this really does happen, and this presentation cites actual examples in four entirely independent settings
Twice in reindeer herds (mammals),
AND
In outbreaks of red-tide in unicellular
marine organisms,
AND
Apparently to the early human inhabitants of Easter Island
(which we include in our appendices)
End of part two
Part three
J-curves …on steroids?
Also disquieting, the real-world worldwide human populationnumbers that actually emerge
could turn out to be
than the medium-fertility U.N.estimates shown here
very much larger
Unexpected advances inlife-extension or unexpected
declines in mortality
or if worldwide fertility levelsstall or turn out to be just
½ child per womanhigher
than the U.N.’s“medium-fertility” estimatesS
ix-f
old
life
-ext
ensi
ons
have
alr
eady
bee
n ac
hiev
ed in
labo
rato
ry o
rgan
ism
s
And
an
equi
vale
nt e
xten
sion
in h
uman
s w
ould
res
ult i
n he
alth
y, a
ctiv
e 50
0-ye
ar-o
lds
We could find ourselves headed toward
by the end of this century
(as shown in this graph)
15.8billion
Eve
n ti
ny f
ract
iona
l suc
h ex
tens
ions
in h
uman
s w
ould
toss
cu
rren
t U.N
. pop
ulat
ion
proj
ecti
ons
righ
t out
the
win
dow
Notice that these graphs are quintessential
examples of J-curves
(one of the most dangerous types of graphs in the world)
and since earth’s planetary carrying
capacity for amodern industrialized
humanity is onthe order of
TWO billion or less
And since we are now beyond seven billion and
may be headed toward10, 11, 12, 13, 14, or 15.8
billion this century
and since each one ofour billions is
a truly enormousnumber (see appendix)
Policymakers, academia, and the world’s rising generations of ‘Under-20s’ should accord
emergency-scale attention to these numbers
J-curves…
Biologically-speaking, anything even approaching
15.8 billion constitutes the demographic equivalent
of a collision trajectory with a near-earth asteroid
There is a widely-held misperception within our societies that human population growth and overpopulation cannot be truly
serious so long as “vast amounts of open space”appear to remain theoretically-available
Key Ideas so far
Real-world examples of Climb-and-collapse in population systems
Collapse can and does occur in environments that appear to be almost entirely empty (.. less than 2/1000ths of one percent ..)
Real-world examples of 99% - plus die-offs
A graph of human population growth over the past two centuries appears to be both more pronounced and more extreme than those seen in either of the cited reindeer examples
Part two– Key Ideas
Su
pp
orti
ng
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
ap
pen
dic
es O
NE
AN
D T
WO
One would hope that we are collectively smarter thana mindless population of one-celled dinoflagellates
Given the current demographic challenge that these numbers
represent
(and with up to our 10th to 15th billions on-track to arriveby the end of this century)
that routinely show themselves capable of calamity while
occupyingless than 2/1000ths of 1% of the volume in which the population
sample resides
Invoking sobriety, however,we may actually be following
a trajectory that has aworrisome similarity to that
of the dinoflagellates
because our own species, like the red-tide dinoflagellates of marinehabitats, releases chemical wastes and toxins into our surroundings
Worse still, from at least one point of view, however, we may actually be on a
trajectory that is worse than thatof the dinoflagellates
and multiple orders ofmagnitude worse at that
for each dinoflagellate cell releases ONLY itsmetabolic and biological wastes into its surroundings
In our own case, however, we release not only our biological and
metabolic wastes
but also an unprecedented daily avalanche of societal and industrial
wastes that are worldwidein scope
and amplified by ourever-growing numbers
and increasing industrialization
Dinoflagellate red-tides are quintessential examples of population calamities arising from the release of wastes
Dinoflagellate red-tide calamities, however, arise from their release of cellular and metabolic wastes into their surroundings
Because our own species also releases wastes into its surroundings,we may be following a trajectory that is provocatively similar to thatof an outbreak of dinoflagellate red-tide
1
2
3
Reviewing Several Key Ideas
Except, of course, our own species supplements its biological and cellular wastes with a daily worldwide avalanche of industrial and societal wastes
(A behavior that no other animals on earth exhibit – and has never previously happened in the entire history of the earth)
And lastly, while deadly outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide are localized events, our own population outbreak is a worldwide phenomenon and worldwide in its effects
4
5
. 6
Reviewing Several Key Ideas
Part Four
No other animals do this
Phot
os c
ourt
esy
of li
fe.n
bii.g
ov:
fox
= M
oses
so; O
ther
s -
Her
man
n
Envision an individual animal of anyspecies other than our own
Pho
tos
cour
tesy
of
life
.nbi
i.gov
: fo
x =
Mos
esso
; Oth
ers
- H
erm
ann
In virtually all of these cases, each organism’s daily pollution of its environment is limited to daily production of its bodily wastes
No population explosions ofred-tide dinoflagellates
(which poison their environments by the wastes that they release)
have EVER supplemented their cellular and biological wastes
with a daily worldwide avalancheof industrial and societal wastes
the way that we do
No other animal species supplements
its cellular and biological wastes
with a planet-wide and ever-increasing avalanche of
industrial and societal wastes the way that we do
PHYSICAL DAMAGE
And then there are also the enormousadditional levels of eradication,degradation and sheer levels of
that we are inflicting everywhere upon the ONLY planetary life-support machinery
so far known to exist anywhere in the universe
No other organismsin the entire history
of the earth have
EVER supplemented
their cellular andbiological wastes
the way that we do
And these behaviors are NOT a minimal or incidental footnote to the biology of our species
Instead, they are one of our most distinctiveand all-encompassing characteristics
We are dangerously misled by ourprevailing “open-space” suppositions
Summaries and Key Concepts
for it is a misperception to presume that human population growth and overpopulation cannot be truly serious so long as “vast amounts of
open space” remain
2/1000 ths of one percent
Climb and collapse outcomes really happen and we are not immune
Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually appear to be almost entirely empty
Collapse with 99% mortality is a biological reality
We are not immune to collapse, and compared to any other animals or dinoflagellates that have ever lived, we are behaving very badly
Three real-world examples of calamity in tiny fractions of 1% “vast open-space” conditions
Plus , two classical real-world climb-and-collapse examples in separate mammalian populations
Climb-and-collapseThis presentation has also been about
Our release of wastes, which shows a disquieting
similarity with population explosions of red-tide dinoflagellates
Dinoflagellate red-tides as quintessential examples of population explosions that induce calamity by the release of wastes
The fact that calamities can arise from wastes eradication, and damage
(as opposed to “running-out-of” things)
This presentation has also been about
We
are
cove
ring
this
bec
ause
it h
as p
ossi
ble
impl
icat
ions
for
us
Our own trajectory which may well be far worse than outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide because we supplement our biological and metabolic wastes with a daily, and growing worldwide on- slaughts of industrial and societal wastes
While outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide can be
categorized as localized events, our own species exerts impacts that are global in extent
Collapse routinely occurs in environments that visually-appear to be almost entirely empty
Earth’s atmosphere and seas as onion-skin-thin and superficial surface films
This presentation has also been about
We are covering this because it has possible implications for us
In addition, the “running-out-of” suppositionsthat traditionally seem to govern our thinking
may not be the first or only factorsthat threaten us
such as “running-out-of” space, food, oil, resources, or anything else
and such suppositions may lead us to an inaccurateassessment of our current status or impending danger
Finally, we are the only animals thatdo this, or that have ever done this
and we are doing so on a worldwide scale so that we are not a localized
phenomenon
and our behaviors in this respects are not a minimalor incidental footnote to the biology of our species
but are instead one of our most distinguishing and all-encompassing characteristics
Lastly, but not least, there are these
two graphsof our demographics
which are verymuch like
J-curves on steroids
First, five additional billions in less than one human lifetime
since 1930
with the potential arrivals of billionsnumbers 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15(and 800 million more after that)
due by the end of this century
on a planet whose biospheric machinery was already beingdamaged at levels of five billion and six billion in 1987 and 1999
and whose planetary carrying capacity for a modern,industrialized humanity is on the order of two billion or less
sheer physical damageand eradication
alsoremembering the
levels of
that we inflict all around the world
Appendicesand supporting mathematics
Supporting Math – Red-tidesSevere red-tide conditions are common when Karen-ia brevis populations reach concentrations ranging between 100,000 to 1,000,000 or more cells per liter. Secondly, approximate dimensions of a typical K. brevis cell:
(1) Volume of 1 liter = 1000 cm3
(2) Approximate dimensions of a typical K. brevis:
L: ~30 um (= 0.03 mm) ** W: ~ 0.035 mm (“a little wider than it is long") *D: ~ 10 – 15 um deep (10 um = 0.010 mm; 15 um = 0.015mm), (so average = ~ .0125 mm)
** Nierenberg, personal communication, 2008 ** Bushaw-Newton, K.L. and Sellner, K.G. 1999. Harmful Algal Blooms; NOAA ** Floridamarine.org, 2008
Using the above:
Volume of a typical cell of K. brevis = (L) x (W) x (D) =
(0.03) (0.035) (0.0125) = ~ 0.000 013 125 mm3
Thus one million Karenia brevis cells occupy ap-proximately (1,000,000) x (0.000 013 125 mm3) = 13.125 mm3, or about 0.013 125 cm3 occupied.
Since 1 liter = 1000 cm3, subtracting 0.013 125 cm3 (volume occupied) leaves (1000) minus (0.013 125 ) or about 999.986 875 cm3 unoccupied
In other words, one million dinoflagellate cells in a 1000 cm3 sample still have approximately 999.986 875 cm3 of unoccupied volume that would appear to remain theoretically-available to them.
Percentage Unoccupied
Therefore, the percentage unoccupied equals (999.986 875 cm3) divided by (1000) so that about 99.998 672 percent of the sample’s total volume remains unoccupied … 99.998%
This means that such Karenia populations manage to routinely visit calamity upon themselves and theenvironment in which they reside, even as all thecells taken together physically-occupy less than2/1000ths of 1% of the total volume that appears to remain seemingly-available.
Thus, (100%) – (99.998 687 %) = (0.001 313 %), or less than 2/1000ths of 1% of the volume that ap-pears to remain theoretically-available.
Thus, even though the K. brevis cells occupy a volumetrically-insignificant portion of the "open-space" that visually appears to remain almost entirely “empty,” they manage, by their combined overpopulation and production of invisible and calamitous wastes, to catastrophically-alter and visit utter calamity upon their home environment which visually appears to remain almost entirely empty
Supporting Math
The image shown left depicts the physical amount of space that constitutes two one-thousandths of one percent. Note that the dot in the image denotes two one-thousandths of one percent of the dark rectangle.
The step-by-step mathematics outlined below permits preparation of a two-dimensional illustration like the one shown here that visually depicts the proportional amount of area occupied by two one-thousandths of one percent.
(1) Use imaging software to open a rectangle 500 pixels high by 350 pixels wide = 175,000 square pixels (Here: wine-red rectangle)(2) Thus, one percent of this area = (175,000) x (.01) equals 1750 square pixels(3) In addition, 1/1000ths of one percent = (1750) times (.001) equals1.750 square pixels(4) And two1000ths of one percent = (1750) x (.002) equals 3.5 square pixels(5) Calculating the square root of 3.5 square pixels equals 1.87 pixels, so that a square of (1.87 pix- els) by (1.87 pixels) equals 3.5 square pixels
Thus beginning with a rectangle of 500 x 350 pixels, a small square of 1.87 pixels by 1.87 pixels (length times width) would visually depict a physical region of two one-thousandths of one percent.
2/1000ths ofone percent
Real-world population calamitiesin nearly “empty” environments
Supporting Math – Reindeer of St. Paul IslandConcerning V. B. Scheffer’s classic reindeer climb-and-collapse study on St. Paul Island, Alaska, our estimate that the reindeer of St. Paul Island, Alaska physically-occupied approximately 2/1000ths of 1% of the island’s total area at the time of collapse is derived as follows.
L: Assume an average reindeer is approximately 190 cm long Female reindeer ~ 180 cm long; males ~ 200 cm plus non-adults, etc., so average = ~190 cm
W: Assume that the width of an average reindeer is approximately 65 cm wide
Girth will vary with time of year; food, pregnant . . . females, and non-adults, so assume = ~ 65 cm
Thus the area physically-occupied by an average member of the population would equate to about (190 cm) x (65 cm) or about 12,350 cm2 each
Given a peak reindeer population of slightly more than 2000 animals, (2000) x (12,350 cm2) equates to a total physically-occupied area by all the reindeer of the herd combined of approximately 24,700,000 cm2
One square meter = 10,000 cm2, so that dividing 24,700,000 cm2 by 10,000 equates to 2470 squaremeters physically-occupied by the entire herd, so
that the bodies of the entire herd of 2000 animals would physically-occupy a total of 2470 m2.
Since the area of St. Paul Island, Alaska is about 106,000,000 m2 (about 41 square miles), we next subtract the 2470 m2 that are physically-occupied by the entire herd from the total area of the island, so that (106,000,000 m2) minus (2470 m2) roughly equates to a total “unoccupied” area of about 105,997,530 m2 that would visually appear to re-main seemingly-available. Lastly, dividing the island’s total unoccupied space (105,997,530 m2 ) by the total area of the island (106,000,000 m2) equates to the percentage of total unoccupied space at the time of the peak reindeer population, which was 0.999 976 or 99.998%.
Notice then that the collapse (and 99% die-off) ofthe St. Paul Island reindeer population began at a time when 99.998% of the island’s total area ap-peared to remain theoretically-available, so that the herd’s maximum population, along with its collapse and catastrophic 99% die-off all took place and pro-ceeded to near annihilation in a surrounding en-vironment that visually appeared to remain
almost entirely empty.
Supporting Math – Reindeer of St. Matthew IslandWe can apply the same approach to D.R. Klein’s classic reindeer climb-and-collapse study on St. Matthew Island, Alaska (1968). Our estimate that the reindeer of St. Matthew Island physically-occu-pied approximately 2/1000ths of 1% of the island’s total area at the time of collapse is derived as follows.
L: Assume an average reindeer is approximately 190 cm long Females ~ 180 cm long; males ~ 200 cm long plus. . . non-adults, etc. thus, thus averaging circa 190 cm
W: Assume that the width of an average reindeer is approximately 65 cm wide
Girth will vary with time of year; food, pregnant . . . females, non-adults, etc., thus, roughly 65 cm
Thus the area physically-occupied by an average member of the population would equal (190 cm) x (65 cm) or approximately 12,350 cm2 each
Given a peak reindeer population of St. Matthew isl-and (1963) of slightly more than 6000 animals, (6000) times (12,350) equates to a total physically-occupied area of approximately 74,100,000 cm2
One square meter = 10,000 cm2, so that dividing 74,100,000 cm2 by 10,000 equates to about 7410 m2 which means that taken together, the peak population
of the entire reindeer herd on St. Matthew Island would physically-occupy a total area of 7410 m2
Since the total area of St. Matthew Island, Alaska is about 331,520 km2 (which equates to about 128 square miles), then expressed as m2, the island’s total area equates to about 331,520,000 m2 .
Next, we subtract the 7410 m2 that are physically-occupied by the entire herd from the total square meters of the island so that (331,520,000 m2) minus (7410 m2) equates to a total “unoccupied” area of approximately 331,512,590 m2.
Lastly, dividing the island’s total unoccupied space (331,512,590 m2) by the total area of the island (331,520,000 m2 ) gives the percentage of total unoccupied space on the island at the time of the maximum reindeer population, which was 0.999 978 or 99.998%. Notice then that the collapse and 99% die-off of the St. Matthew Island reindeer population began at a time when 99.998% of the island’s total area visually-appeared to remain seemingly-available, so that the herd’s maximum population, along with its collapse and catastrophic 99% die-off all took place and proceeded to near annihilation in a surrounding environment that visually appeared to remain
almost entirely empty.
We assess Easter Island’s historic climb-and-collapse human population data as outlined in Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse – How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Viking, 2005) as follows:
Area of the island = approximately 170 km2 (about 66 square miles) or about 170,939,215 square meters.
Assuming a mid-range peak human population of approximately 15,000, and that the average individual in the population physically-occupied approximately one square meter (standing), the combined area physic-ally-occupied by all 15,000 individuals combined would equal approximately 15,000 square meters.
Therefore, given an island of approximately 170,939,215 square meters, if we subtract the approximately 15,000 square meters physically-occupied by all 15,000 human inhabitants combined, we are left with a remainder of approximately 170,924,215 square meters of “unoccupied” “open-space” that would visually-appear to remain seemingly-available.
Next, dividing the total “unoccupied” area (170,924,215 m2) by the island’s total area of 170,939,212 m2,equates to an island that is 0.999912 unoccupied, or 99.991% empty.
Thus we see that the mathematics suggests that a mid-range peak Easter Island human population reached its peak and began its collapse even as “vast amounts of open-space” appeared to remain seemingly avail-able and its inhabitants seemed to be living in an environment that was almost entirely empty.
Thus we see still another natural experiment that ended in collapse, this time involving a human society. Note, however, that the similarity of our situation and that of the peak population of Easter Island is not perfect, for the humans on Easter Island constituted a pre-industrial society that could kill its birds and
Easter Island?
most of its seabirds, deforest its surroundings, and overexploit its resources.
Our own numbers, however, are both far greater, and our individual harmful impacts may have 50 or 100s or even1000s of times the impact of a single pre-industrialized individual.
Also unlike us, the island’s pre-industrial society was a localized society that could not generate billions of tons of CO2 and industrial wastes, de-grade and eradicate natural systems and plunder resources from all parts of the planet.
In addition, they had no automobile exhausts, chlor-ofluorocarbons, logging concessions, mechanized fishing fleets, fossil fuels, nuclear and industrial wastes, and investment portfolios with which to simultaneously assault every corner of our planet.
Easter Island?
Yes, we did notice the close agreement between the 2/1000ths of 1% that turned up in the assessment of dinoflagellate red-tides and the 2/1000ths of 1% figuresthat turned up independently in both of the mammalian climb-and-collapse reindeer studies that we cite.
Also, yes. We mathematically analyzed only the four cases cited, and were as surprised as anyone at the degree of agreement in all four results, strongly sug-gesting that our natural, instinctive, or intuitive "open-space" suppositions may be causing us to seriously underestimate the proximity, extent, and degree of danger that our present numbers may portend.
(And using an estimated peak population of preindus-trial humans on Easter Island, as reported by Jared Diamond in his book Collapse, of 15,000 - 30,000, analysis produces another tiny fractional portion of 1%.) (And a typical, modern industrialized humanhas 50-100-1000s of times the impact of a singlepre-industrialized individual.)
In addition, the dangerous and widely-shared "vast open-space" suppositions that we have addressed in this presentation also extend to our widely-shared
view of our planet itself.
Because we are, as individual creatures, such smallbeings compared to our planet, we tend to imagine, again erroneously, that the earth's atmosphere and seas are so immense that they must be relatively immune to the industrial and societal insults that we inflict.
In mathematical and planetary terms, however, both earth's atmosphere and its seas are extraordinarily thin and superficial surface films. Mathematically speaking, for example, 99.94% of our planet consists of its crust, mantle, and its molten interior and the thin layer of water that we refer to as an ocean exists only as an inexpressibly thin and precarious surface film that is just 6/100ths of 1% as thick as the earth itself.
To illustrate this depth to scale on a model globe, we would need a layer of water just 12/1000ths of an inch deep to proportionately represent the depth of earth's oceans. If we were to wipe a wet paper towel across a 40-cm globe, the film it leaves behind would be too deep to properly characterize the depth of earth's oceans.
After What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet; Anson, 2011; Marine Biology and Ocean Science, Anson, 1996; and Planet Ocean, International Oceanographic Foundation, 1977.
are common enough to be disquieting and may
have something to tell us about ourselves
In nature, population calamities in environments that visually
appear to be ALMOST COMPLETELY EMPTY
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What Every Citizen Should KnowAbout Our Planet
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