POPULATION HEALTH AND COBENEFITS
FROM SLCF MITIGATION
LUIS ABDON CIFUENTES PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE CHILE
Technical Workshop on Science and Policy of Short-
Lived Climate Forcers
Mexico City, 9-10 September 2011
Contents 2
1. Population impacts from the UNEP BC/O3
Integrated Assessment
2. Some results of cobenefits for mitigation
scenarios in Chile
Main results of the UNEP assessment 4
Causal steps 5
Mitigation measures
Reduction of pollutants and CAPs emissions
Reduction on BC and O3 concentrations, along with a
host of other pollutants
Reduction on health effects
Valuation of the avoided effects
Impacts of BC and O3 on human health
6
Biological response to pollution 7
Proportion of total population affected
Mor
tality
Morbidity
Precursor alterations
Uncertain alterations
Accumulation of pollutants
Visible effects
on health
Which pollutants have an impact on health?
8
Particulate matter has long been recognized as
having a strong impact on human health, from
physiological changes to premature mortality
The evidence has shown smaller size particles to be
more toxic
Ozone has long been shown to have irritant and
oxidant properties, and only recently (~2005) its
impact on premature mortality has been recognized.
BC health effects 9
BC is part of PM2.5. But does it has a different
impact on mortality
Modest, but growing, volume of literature on the
effects of BC:
Maynard et al., 2007: acute mortality effects of
exposure to BC in homes) , twice as big as PM2.5’s.
Tonne et al., 2009: increased incidence of heart
attacks
Indirect evidence on BC-mortality association
10
In relation to PM2.5, BC was more strongly associated with:
blood pressure (Lundback et al., 2009; Mordukhovich et al., 2009; Zanobetti et al., 2004)
markers of the thickening of artery walls (atherosclerosis) (Madrigano et al., 2009; Park et al., 2008; Hansen et al., 2007)
electrocardiogram changes that are risk factors for arrhythmia (abnormal electrical activity of the heart) (Zanobetti et al., 2009)
electrocardiogram changes that are risk factors for ischemia (restriction in blood supply) (Chuang et al., 2008; Gold et al., 2005)
changes in DNA methylation (Baccarelli et al., 2009).
Household BC vs Diesel BC 11
BC is a surrogate for all particle mass that comes from diesel in one instance, and from household combustion in the other, and the fellow traveller particles are different in each case.
So it is important to ask separately about the evidence for household derived BC. Here the evidence is weaker…
…although it is clear that biomass combustion increases the risk of respiratory disease (Samuelsen et al., 2008; Dherani et al., 2008; Smith et al., 2000; Lipsett et al., 1997).
Recently, a randomized trial of a chimney stove intervention in Guatemala was shown to reduce blood pressure (McCracken et al., 2007). Since blood pressure is a major risk factor for cardiovascular mortality, this provides support for the association of BC from such combustion and mortality.
BC mortality risk 12
Given that :
traffic related BC is more toxic than average
and the weaker evidence on the relative toxicity of
biomass particles
It was assumed that BC particles have the same risk
as PM2.5 (average risk)
Scope 13
Health impacts in 2030 due to the change in PM2.5
and O3 concentrations projected in 2030 relative to
2005 concentrations based on the reference scenario.
Change in ambient concentrations simulated by two
models: GISS-PUCCINI and ECHAM-HAMMOZ
Endpoints considered:
PM : cardiopulmonary mortality and lung cancer
O3 : respiratory mortality
Years of life lost (YLL) calculated based on current
life expectancies.
Scope 14
Outdoor air pollution
PM2.5 and O3 considered.
Unit risk from EPA’s expert elicitation: 1.06% per
ug/m3 PM2.5 (1.8x ACS risk). Linear function.
Indoor Air Pollution
To be conservative, only respiratory mortality
considered
Only India and China considered due to data
limitations
Results 15
17
Change in annual PM2.5 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer and O3
respiratory mortality (lives per 1 000 km2) in 2030 relative to
2005 for the reference scenario.
18
Premature mortality (millions of premature deaths annually) by
region, showing the change in 2030 in comparison with 2005
Cobenefits of Climate Mitigation Actions in Chile 19
1. Although Chile has not formal mitigation
commitment, in Copenhagen it pledged a
voluntary reduction of 10% + 10%
2. What are the costs of this pledge?
3. What are the public health benefits of it?
Enery consumption is rapidly growing
20
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Tera
calo
rias
Petroleo Combustible
Nafta
Metanol
Kerosene
Gas s/p
Gas Refineria
Gas Natural
Gas Licuado
Gas Corriente
Gas Alto Horno
Electricidad
Diesel
Coke
Carbon
Biomasa
Emisiones de GEI directas e indirectas
Año 2030 21
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Forestal - Forestal
CPR - Comercial y Publico
CPR - Residencial
Energia - Generacion Electrica
Energia - Carbon y Lena
Energia - Gas y Coque
Energia - Gas y Metanol
Energia - Petroleo y Gas
Industria - Azucar
Industria - Cemento
Industria - Cobre
Industria - Hierro
Industria - Industria y Minas Varias
Industria - Papel y celulosa
Industria - Pesca
Industria - Petroquimica
Industria - Salitre
Industria - Siderurgia
Transporte - Aereo
Transporte - Caminero
Transporte - Ferroviario
Transporte - Maritimo
CP
REn
ergí
aIn
du
stri
aTr
ansp
ort
e
MtonCO2e/año
Directas
Indirectas por Consumo Eléctrico
Emissions Growth in the BAU scenario
relative to 2010 22
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Cre
cim
ien
to e
mis
ion
es
rela
tivo
a 2
01
0
CO
MP25
NOX
SOX
NH3
COVNM
GEI
Marginal Mitigation Cost Curve
23
Du
chas
Efi
cien
tes
Imp
ues
to a
Co
mb
ust
ible
s C
amio
nes
Imp
ues
to a
Co
mb
ust
ible
s C
amio
nes
Ilu
min
acio
n R
esid
enci
al E
fici
ente
Mo
tore
s N
uev
os
Efic
ien
tes
Geo
term
ia_S
ING
Min
i_h
idro
_SIC
Ais
laci
on
Viv
ien
das
Nu
clea
r_SI
C
Geo
term
ia_S
IC
Eolic
a_SI
C
Co
gen
erac
ion
Bio
com
bu
stib
les
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
USD
/to
nC
O2
e
Reducción GEI vs. BAU Acumulado 2010-2030
Average cost and public health benefit by measure
2010-2030 (mid scenario) 24
-700 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500
Duchas Eficientes
Subvencion Transporte Publico
Impuesto a Combustibles Vehiculos Livianos
Impuesto a Combustibles Camiones
Mejoras Aerodinamicas
Conduccion eficiente Buses
Conduccion eficiente Camiones
Iluminacion Residencial Eficiente
Adelanto Recambio Motores
Refrigeracion Comercial Eficiente
Reduccion Perdidas Standby
Taxis y Colectivos Hibridos
Motores Nuevos Eficientes
Buses Hibridos
Refrigeracion Residencial Eficiente
Geotermia_SING
Mini_hidro_SIC
Aislacion Viviendas
Nuclear_SIC
Carga en Ferrocarril
Geotermia_SIC
Eolica_SING
Solar_SING
Eolica_SIC
Cogeneracion
Calentadores Eficientes
Conduccion eficiente Taxis y Colectivos
Lavavajillas Eficientes
Biomasa_SIC
Mareomotriz_SIC
Calderas de Condensacion
Biocombustibles
Microondas Eficientes
Secadoras Eficientes
Colectores Solares
Vehiculos Livianos Hibridos
Lavadoras Eficientes
Expansion Lineas de Metro
Conduccion eficiente Vehiculos Livianos
Vehiculos Livianos Hibridos Plug-in
Chatarrizacion Camiones
USD/tCO2e reducido
Co-beneficio Alto
Co-beneficio Bajo
Costo Medio
Cobenefits are generally higher than mitigation costs
25
Marginal mitigation costs including co-benefits
26
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
(USD
/tC
O2
e)
Reducción GEI Acumulada (MtCO2e)
Uncertainty on the public health
benefits 27
Curva de co-beneficios Escenario Bajo de valoración - Escenario MIT Medio
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
0 100 200 300 400
(USD
/tC
O2e)
Reducción GEI Acumulada (MtCO2e)
Fuente: Elaboración Propia
Co-benefits by Measure
2010-2030 (mid scenario) 28
Medida Co-beneficio
(USD/tCO2e)
Aislación Viviendas [38 - 627]
Chatarrización Vehículos Livianos [18 - 299]
Electrodomésticos Eficientes [18 - 298]
Refrigeración Comercial Eficiente [17 - 292]
Refrigeración Residencial Eficiente [17 - 284]
Iluminación Residencial Eficiente [17 - 281]
Chatarrización Camiones [15 - 253]
Subvención Transporte Publico [15 - 246]
Medidas a los vehículos livianos [14 - 240]
Impuesto a Combustibles Camiones [14 - 231]
Conducción eficiente Buses [13 - 222]
Vehículos livianos Híbridos [13 - 210]
Conducción eficiente Camiones [13 - 209]
Buses Híbridos [12 - 207]
Biocombustibles [11 - 183]
Expansión Líneas de Metro [11 - 184]
Carga en Ferrocarril [11 - 182]
Vehículos Livianos Híbridos Plug-in [11 - 175]
Cogeneración [10 - 176]
Motores Nuevos Eficientes [7 - 117]
Adelanto Recambio Motores [4 - 63]
Renovables Limpias SIC [3 - 47]
Medidas de reducción consumo Agua Caliente [2 - 30]
Renovables Limpias SING [1 - 15]
Biomasa_SIC [-15 - -249]
