POPULATION ISSUES
Population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to over 6 (7) billion today.
80% of the world’s population lives in LDC’s
90% of the world’s population lives above the equator.
People are living longer in virtually all countries. Why? Medical revolution
Arithmetic (linear) growth: 2,4,6,8,10,12, etc….
Exponential growth: 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, etc….
Population grows exponentially.
Define demographics
Doubling time
The number of years it takes for a population to double.
At a rate of 3% growth per year, a population will double in 25 years.
For now and the foreseeable future, most live in Africa and Asia.Technology has allowed people to adapt to natural constraints in growth.
First Agricultural Revolution
Second Agricultural Revolution
Third Agricultural Revolution
Neolithic Revolution
Industrial Revolution
Green Revolution
When does a country become overpopulated?
When it exceeds its carrying capacity (when it can’t feed its people.)
Terminology:
Rate of natural increase Affected by economic development (healthcare, employment, nutrition, education.)
Crude birth rate Crude death rate
Fertility rateInfant mortality rate
Crude birth rate minus crude death rate (+ - immigration
The better women are educated, the lower the RNI.
Gender empowerment
Cultural traditions:
Women are expected to stay home and raise children.
Public policy:
China, India, France
How is the One Baby Policy affecting China’s future?
Population Sustainability
PEDS make up around 25% of the world’s population, yet use 75% of the world’s resources.
The percentage of the world’s surface that is fit or habitation is called the “ecumene.”
Population density:
Arithmetic density
Physiological density Agricultural (arable) density
The heaviest populated regions.
Is population density a good gauge for development?
Demographic Transition Model
Stage I: high birth rate, high death rate, little growth.
This describes most of human history.
Stage II: high birth rate, low death rate.
Industrial and medical revolution.
Stage III: low birth rate, low death rate.
A generally balanced population.
Peds and pings?
Stage IV: low birth rate, low death rate.
Population is not being replaced, population decline.
Thomas Malthus
Economist writing at the turn of the 18th/19th centuries, Malthus predicted dire consequences as the population began to boom. He stated the population would soon exceed the food supply. Based on what he saw in Britain during the Industrial Revolution.
What did he not account for?
Note: if there is no majority group but multiple minorities, the group with the highest growth rate will eventually become the majority and population growth will mirror their growth.
Neo-Malthusians:They are predicting the population will outstrip resources.
technology
Population pyramids
Displays the gender and age of age groups.
Which are peds, which are pings?
Give an example of a country (region) that would match each pyramid.
You can predict trends for the future.
Moving population pyramid of China
Demographic momentum
The time (process) it takes for a population to begin to drop even after the birth rate has been reduced.
What does this pyramid imply economically regarding the Chinese population in Indonesia?
Dependency ratio The number in the population that is below 15 and over 65 (the dependants.)
Remember, the population in many MDC’s is declining, while most of the population growth in the world is coming in LDC’s.
How will this affect: poverty, development, migration, culture, resources, conflict?
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