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Power Politics: Power Politics: Russia and its “Near Russia and its “Near
Abroad”Abroad”Dr. Theresa Sabonis-Helf Dr. Theresa Sabonis-Helf National War College National War College
February 2009
Regional primary energy consumption patterns 2007
coal
hydronuclear
gas
oil
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
Blue designates members of OPEC
Green designates oil producer (non-OPEC)
Base map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2008
China: 3.8
Russia: 9.7
Kazakhstan: 1.4
Nigeria: 2.4
Angola: 1.8
Libya: 1.8
Norway: 2.8
Saudi Arabia: 10.7
Iran: 4.1
Iraq: 2.0
Algeria: 2.2
Kuwait 2.7
UAE: 2.9 Indonesia: 1.0
Qatar: 1.1
2007 Oil Producers
(mil bbl/day)
UK: 1.7
Mexico: 3.7
Canada: 3.3
United States: 8.3
Venezuela: 2.8
2007 Oil ProducersBase map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2008
Brazil: 2.2
Ecuador: 0.5
Blue designates members of OPEC
Green designates oil producer (non-OPEC)
World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2005(billion barrels)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Rest of WorldOman
AzerbaijanNorway
KazakhstanBrazil
AlgeriaMexico
QatarChina
United StatesNigeria
LibyaRussia
VenezuelaUAE
KuwaitIraqIran
CanadaSaudi Arabia
Oil & Gas Journal, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004).
World Total =1,278 Billion Barrels
Bab el-Mandab 3.0Bosporus/Turkish Straits 3.1Strait of Hormuz: 17
Strait of Malacca 11.7 Russia 2.0 Suez Canal/Sumed: 4.2 Panama Canal: 0.6
7
2
3
4
5
6
7
5
6
1
1
2
3
4
Oil Chokepoints (Millions of Barrels per Day)
Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2005 (2004 estimates)
Oil in the Region: 1000 Barrels/Day
RussiRussiaa
KazakhstKazakhstanan
AzerbaijaAzerbaijann
2002 7659 968 315
2003 8535 1062 325
2004 9274 1246 318
2005 9511 1337 440
2006 9675 1387 647
2007 9874 1444 848
Data from EIA 2008
Canada’s OilDomestic Impacts of Oil Domestic Impacts of Oil WealthWealth
● Boom and bust economic cycles ● Dutch Disease● No taxation, no representation syndrome● Economic and political development of petrostates has had limited success● High levels of corruption are endemic● State incurs obligations that are hard to rescind
Oil & Gas RevenuesOil & Gas Revenues
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan KazakhstanKazakhstan RussiaRussia
Oil accounted for 20% GDP in 2007
Oil and gas accounted for 30% GDP in 2007
Oil and gas accounted for 25% GDP since 2003
Oil fund assets: $2 Billion as of December 2006, expected to reach $36 Billion by 2010.
Oil Fund assets: $20 Billion as of October 2007
Stabilization fund by end 2006: $80 Billion
Baku-Supsa Oil Pipeline145,000 B/day(1999)
Existing Soviet Oil Pipelines
“Chechen Loop”
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (BTC)1,000,000 B/Day (2006)
Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)
700,000 B/Day (2001)
Iran “Swap”80,000 B/Day
Map by Gavin Helf
Kazakhstan- China Pipelline 200,000 B/Day (2006)
Where are the Hydrocarbons?
Proven Oil Reserves 2007Proven Oil Reserves 2007 Proven Nat. Gas Reserves Proven Nat. Gas Reserves 20072007
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
European Reliance on Russian Natural Gas (2006-
2007)RankRank Country Country
(bcf in 2007)(bcf in 2007)2006 % of 2006 % of
Dom. Cons.Dom. Cons.
1 Germany (1,378 bcf)
36%
2 Turkey (827 bcf) 64%
3 Italy (742 bcf) 25%
4 France (346 bcf) 20%
5 Czech Rep (247) 79%
6 Poland (247 bcf) 47%
7 Hungary (226 bcf) 54%
8 Slovakia (223 bcf) 100% Data from EIA Russia Country Report 2008
Russian Oil and Russian Oil and Gas Pipelines to Gas Pipelines to Europe: Actual Europe: Actual & Proposed& Proposed
Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2008
Russian Gas Sales Prices 2008($ per thousand cubic meters)
European Market priceEuropean Market price $370.00$370.00
Lithuania (~78% of supply) $280.00
Latvia (~ 78% of supply) $280.00
Estonia (~78% of supply) $280.00
Georgia (100% of supply) $230.00
Moldova $191.25
Ukraine (66% of supply) $179.50
Belarus (Q1) (98% of supply) $119.00
Armenia $110.00Data from EIA Russia Country Report May 2008
Russian Nord Stream Natural Gas PipelineFacts
Route: Portovaya Bay, Russia to coast Germany (underwater) – Baltic Sea
Capacity: 27.5 billion cubic meters (2010); 55 bcm (2012 – 2nd pipeline)
Length: 1,200 km (World’s largest underwater natural gas pipeline – max depth: 210 meters)
Cost Estimate: 5 Billion Euros (60% Increase – 8 Billion Euros) – Cost 2.2 Billion Euros if built on land
Supply: Shtokman gas field (estimated reserves of 3.7 trillion cubic meters – 2010 available)
Shareholders: Gazprom (51%), BASF (24.5%), E.ON (24.5%)
Contracts: Wingas – German Gas Co. – 9 bcm for 25 yrsDONG – Danish Co. – 1 bcm for 20 yrsE.ON – German Co. – 4 bcmGaz de France – 2.5 bcm
Slide courtesy of Nelson Dodd, NWC Elective 5404
Arm Azer Geo Kaz Kyr Taj Tkm Uzb
Main Type of Generation
Nucl Ther Hydr Ther Hydr Hydr Ther Ther
Synchronized
X X X X X X X* X
Transmission
X X X X X X --- X
Generation X --- X X X X --- ---
Debt for equity
X --- X X X X --- ---
RAO-UES Interest/ Involvement
* partial parallel
Foreign Presence in Energy Sectors
Armenia Azerbaijan GeorgiaNational partners
Russia, Iran Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Iran
Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey
Energy Sources
Nuclear, hydroImports nat. gas
Oil, Gas (international private investments)
Hydro, Imports nat. gas
Exports Swaps electricity for nat. gas w/ Iran
Oil to world market,Gas to Georgia & Turkey , Swaps nat. gas w/ Iran (for Nakhchivan)
Negotiating re management of Enguri HPP (Abkhazia)
RAO-UES investment
Extensive Russian ownership
Linked to overall grid, no ownership inside Azerbaijan
Extensive Russian ownership
Gazprom involvement
Owns some pipelines and distribution, power plants
Negotiating to purchase gas and/or gas swaps(Azer was an importer until Winter 2007)
Georgia receives 10% of gas supplied to Armenia
Russia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
TajikistanTurkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia
Ukraine
Moldova
Belarus
LithuaniaEstonia
Latvia
Active RBMK Reactors
Mothballed RBMK Reactors
Mothballed Breeder Reactor
Active Breeder Reactor
Active VVER Reactors
All Reactors