Pr presentation city university june 2011 michael peak

EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE

07/06/2011


Knowing your international student audience:Implications of visa issues and fees


07/06/2011 Overview

• The context: Internationally mobile students

• What drives student mobility?– British Council research – Students in Motion– Visas– Fees

• Student Insight: the decisions of prospective international students

• British Council global campaigns – some examples


07/06/2011

Nearly 50% of all mobile students study in one of 5 countries (Global distribution of international students, 2008. From OECD Education at a Glance 2010)


07/06/2011

(600,000) (400,000) (200,000) - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

Ireland

Malaysia

Korea

Japan

India

Canada

Australia

Germany

France

United Kingdom

China

United States

Combined Student Flows

Sources: UIS and Project Atlas (IIE) – British Council, Global Gauge study

Inbound studentsOutbound students


07/06/2011

International students in the UK

• International students in the UK = 455,660

• continuous growth of international student enrolment in 2009/10, marking 10% increase:– 6% growth in the EU enrolments to the UK– 11% growth in the non-EU enrolments to the UK

• PG growth of 10%, UG of 9%. – Most pronounced growth at Postgraduate Taught level (13%)

• 42% PGR and 57% PGT students are international


07/06/2011

Where do they come from?What do they study?

• India and China make up nearly 1/3 of non EU students in UK HE

• The top 5 sending countries account for more than 50% of non-EU students

• The PG/UG split is almost exactly 50/50

• Most popular subject area is Business and administrative studies (over 93,000 non-EU students in 2009-10).• Electronic and electrical engineering is most popular subject outside of Business disciplines.


07/06/2011

Growth markets

Source: HESA (2011)


07/06/2011

New students• First year enrolments are one of the most reliable indicators for the future direction

of student enrolments. They grew by 11% in 2009/10– Non-EU enrolments grew by 12%– EU enrolments increased by 7%

• Countries with big growth in commencing students:– Nepal (105%)– Saudi Arabia (63%)– Kazakhstan (57%)

BUT:– South Korea (-1%)– Pakistan (-3%)– Kenya (-5%)

Even though these markets grew overall


07/06/2011

Times are changing

– fees introduced (wont directly affect non-EU students)– visa changes (perceptions of UK changing, ease of access

changing)– HE provision improving in traditional sending countries

So institutions increasingly look to offer services/products in different ways


07/06/2011

– Data also collated by HESA (but a separate dataset)– UK qualifications now delivered in 223 countries outside of the UK– 78 countries where:

Students studying UK qual in country ≥ students from that country travelling to UK

– 12 countries where more than 5,000 extra students study a UK qual in that country (compared to in the UK)

Studying UK qualifications outside the UK - TNE


07/06/2011

Studying UK qualifications outside the UK - TNE


07/06/2011

TNE growth markets


07/06/2011

So, what about the future? – Students in Motion

• Country specific forecasts – produced with the Economist Intelligence Unit. Demand for study abroad is modelled on:– demographic estimates– household income (cross-section of families with the right

income and children at the right age)– education provision at home – rate opting to study

overseas– macroeconomic determinants of demand for overseas

study: income level, bilateral trade, exchange rate– lag of almost 2 years to see impact of the above


07/06/2011

Students in Motion• British Council study looking at future student flows from different

countries to the UK over the short- to mid-term• Countries investigated so far: China, India, Nigeria, Malaysia and USA• Several general findings were made:

– GDP per capita is the main driver for total higher education enrolment

– forecasts for students coming to the UK correlate strongly with• bilateral trade flows• local currency to £ exchange rate• tuition fees in the UK relative to other possible destination

countries


07/06/2011

Expect a positive relationship between economic development (GDP per head) and enrolment in tertiary education:

All countries

ALGERIAARMENIA

AUSTRALIAAUSTRIA

AZERBAIJAN

BELARUS BELGIUM

BENIN

BULGARIA

BURKINA FASOBURUNDI

CAMBODIACAMEROONCAPE VERDE

CHINACOLOMBIA

CROATIA

CUBA

CZECH REPUBLIC

DENMARK

EL SALVADOR

ESTONIA

ETHIOPIA

FINLAND

FRANCEGEORGIA

GHANA

GREECE

GUATEMALA

GUINEA

GUYANA

HUNGARY ICELAND

INDIAINDONESIA

IRELANDISRAELITALYJAPANJORDAN

KAZAKHSTANLATVIA

LEBANON

LESOTHO

LITHUANIA

MADAGASCAR

MAURITIUSMEXICO

MOROCCO

NAMIBIA

NETHERLANDSNEW ZEALAND NORWAY

PAKISTAN

PANAMAPERU

PHILIPPINES

POLANDPORTUGALROMANIA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

SLOVAKIA

SLOVENIA

SOUTH AFRICA

SPAIN

SWAZILAND

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

TAJ IKISTAN

THAILANDTUNISIATURKEY

UKRAINEUNITED KINGDOM

UNITED STATES

URUGUAY

UZBEKISTAN

VENEZUELA

YEMEN

y = 0.80x - 3.88

R2 = 0.77

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0

log(GDP per capita, PPP $)

log(

enro

lmen

t rat

e)

All


07/06/2011

Developed countries

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRIA

BELGIUM

CZECH REPUBLIC

DENMARK

ESTONIA

FINLAND

FRANCE

GREECE

HUNGARY ICELAND

IRELANDISRAELITALY

JAPAN

LATVIA

NETHERLANDS

NEW ZEALAND NORWAYPOLAND

PORTUGAL

RUSSIAN FEDERATIONSLOVENIA

SPAINSWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

UNITED KINGDOM

UNITED STATES

y = -0.00x + 4.21

R2 = 0.00

3

4

5

2.2 2.3 2.4


log(

enro

lmen

t rat

e)

Forecasting total enrolments in HE• Stronger relationship between economic development and enrolment in emerging

markets:

Emerging markets

ALGERIA

ARMENIA

AZERBAIJAN

BELARUS

BENIN

BULGARIA

BURKINA FASOBURUNDI

CAMBODIA

CAMEROONCAPE VERDE

CHINACOLOMBIA

CUBA

EL SALVADOR

ETHIOPIA

GEORGIA

GHANA

GUATEMALA

GUINEA

GUYANAINDIAINDONESIA

JORDANKAZAKHSTANLEBANON

LESOTHOMADAGASCAR

MAURITIUS

MEXICO

MOROCCO

NAMIBIAPAKISTAN

PANAMAPERU

PHILIPPINES

ROMANIA

SOUTH AFRICA

SWAZILAND

TAJ IKISTAN

THAILAND

TUNISIATURKEY

UKRAINE

URUGUAY

UZBEKISTAN

VENEZUELA

YEMEN

y = 7.60x - 13.24

R2 = 0.68

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3


log(

enro

lmen

t rat

e)


07/06/2011

Flat rate in the world outward mobility

World HE enrolmentsInternationally mobile students

2000 97,205,098 1.8%

2001 104,103,583 1.8%

2002 113,669,904 1.9%

2003 122,085,254 2.0%

2004 129,690,294 1.9%

2005 135,925,247 1.9%

2006 143,133,002 1.8%

2007 151,253,144 1.8%Source: UNESCO and British Council analysis


07/06/2011

Estimated number of Chinese tertiary level students in UK, '000s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Baseline EIU forecast

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Chinese students studying in the UK(undergraduate and postgraduate), 000s

Source: British Council Students in Motion (2011)


07/06/2011

Visas

• Study of the impact of visa changes on student enrolment data– US post 9/11– Australia in 2010– The outlook for the UK

• Perception, post-study work


07/06/2011

Pathways will be affected

• British Council analysis of UCAS data (application data 2010):

(Of those applications from a known ‘application centre’): 54% of applications from non-EU domiciled applicants came from within the UK

- A large proportion of UG applicants are already in the UK when they apply!


07/06/2011

Student Insight -- the Complexity of Choice

• There are real students behind the numbers and trend lines – each of them with hopes and aspirations for the future

• A student’s choice is based on a complex mix depending on a wide variety of factors

• Importance:– Verifying our knowledge about the market

– Turning anecdotal evidence into empirical evidence

– Capturing shifts in demand before students enrol

– Allowing on-line tracking of student choice at city level


07/06/2011

Student Insight: The Student Decision Making study

• Since 2007 the British Council have been exploiting their network and reach to capture the views of prospective international students

• Over 126,000 respondents from over 180 countries

• UK institutions can access the raw data, at city-level, in (almost) real-time


07/06/2011

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

China India Nigeria

Wanted the experience of livingoverseas/cultural experience

Better quality ofeducation/course overseas

To improve career prospects

To improve my English languageskills

Obtained scholarship overseas

Course not offered in my owncountry

Experience

Career

Quality

n=13,594 n=6,551 n=1,828

Source: British CouncilStudent Insight

Important factors in your decision to study overseas (China, India, Nigeria).


07/06/2011

Major influencers on your decision to study overseas

• Increasingly ‘It was my own decision’ and ‘Parents’ (both for PG and UG students)

• Who suggested the institution(s)?– Friends, classmates, another family member

• Importance of word of mouth and use of alumni


07/06/2011

Important factors when selecting institution:(Female, prospective PG Business Studies applicant)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Beijing Guangzhou Hangzhou Shanghai Wuhan

Career prospects

Graduation rates

Institution ranking

Institution reputation

It has world class academics

It offers scholarships

Low tuition fees

On-campus/accommodationfacilities

Other - please specify

Quality of the course

Relatives/friends have studiedthere in the past

Social life

Source: British Council Student Insight (2011)


07/06/2011

Important factors when selecting city/location:(Female, prospective PG Business Studies applicant)

Source: British Council Student Insight (2011)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Cosm

opol

itan

Friend

ly an

d welc

omin

g

It is

fun

and

vibra

nt

It is

safe

It is

the

capi

tal c

ity/m

ajor

city

It of

fers

goo

d jo

b pr

ospe

cts

Low liv

ing

expe

nses

Prese

nce

of re

lativ

es/fr

iend

s

Beijing

Wuhan


07/06/2011

Student Insight - Summary

• Know your audience• Tailor messages• Importance of influencers and word of

mouth….


07/06/2011

Education UK Challenge

Multi-market

On and offline competition designed to profile the value of a UK education and our innovative teaching methods.

Teams from overseas institutions compete against each other in multi-disciplinary challenges created by UK institutions


07/06/2011

Video showing the winners of Shine 2011 could not be transferred, but further details can be found here:

http://www.educationuk.org

http://www.educationuk.org/shine

Shine!: The International Student Awards


07/06/2011

The futureChallenging times:• Students have more choice:

– increased provision at home;– Increasing number of appealing host countries;– trans-national qualifications;

• External factors:– Visas (for non-EU students)– Fees (for EU students)– Exchange rates

• Can control (to some extent) student perceptions• “International students” must not be lumped in the same

basket (even within a single country)• Timely, tailored market info at city level is crucial


07/06/2011

www.britishcouncil.org/educationintelligence

Michael Peak0161 957 [email protected]

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