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1 Center or American Progress | Preparing U.S. Policy or the Next Phase o Egypts Transition

Preparing U.S. Policy for the Next

Phase of Egypts TransitionBrian Katulis, Ken Sofer, and Peter Juul March 1, 2013

As Egyp moves oward anoher round o parliamenary elecions beginning in April,1

he counry remains in a series o inerlinked securiy, poliical, economic, and social

crises. Tese crises are he resul o an inconclusive sruggle or power among compe-

ing poliical orces inside he counry, as well as a dauning se o policy challenges ha

Egyp has acedbu no eecively addressedor decades.

Over he pas year, one grouphe Muslim Broherhood and is aliaed Freedom and

Jusice Paryworked o dominae he poliical ransiion, moving orward wih a new

Egypian Consiuion in lae 2012 in a manner ha undermined he legiimacy and

credibiliy o he counrys poliical ransiion and he resuling poliical order.

A poliical legiimacy crisis looms in Egyp, driven by wo main acors. Firs is he

messy poliical ransiion, which suers rom a lack o inclusiviy on he par o he

Islamis paries ha won a majoriy in he 2012 parliamenary and presidenial elec-

ions. Since 2011 Egyp has seen our disinc phases in is poliical ransiion:

The Tahrir Revolution: Popular proess ha ended wih Presiden Hosni Mubaraks

resignaion Military rule: Poliical ransiion managed by he Supreme Council o he Armed

Forces Contested and unclear transition: Delicae and oen conenious power sharing

beween he Supreme Council o he Armed Forces and he Islamis-dominaed civil-

ian governmen Reassertion of presidential dominance: Expansion o execuive auhoriy under

Presiden Mohamed Morsi and increasing conic beween he Muslim Broherhood

and he oher key ceners o poliical power

(See our imeline deailing he key evens in he ransiion on page 12 and online.2)

Te second acor conribuing o he looming poliical legiimacy crisis is a disorganized

poliical opposiion and he lack o a coheren viable poliical alernaive o he Islamiss.

Te opposiions lack o clear sraegy o advance heir own agendaexemplifed by heir

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recen call o boycot he nex round o parliamenary elecionsis likely o conribue o

urher undermining he rus in and suppor or Egyps poliical insiuions.

Tis poliical legiimacy crisis has exacerbaed he problems o governance by causing a

salemae on imporan naional policy quesions ha he counry acesparicularly

quesions abou he economy and key legal reorms. Te deadlock has worsened he

dauning economic problems acing ens o millions o poor Egypians, such as a grow-ing naional defci and a 13 percen unemploymen rae.3 Resricions on reedoms such

as speech, expression, and assembly remain in place, and many Egypians ear ha he

coming year will bring urher resricions on basic righs. (See he ex box on page 4 on

recen negaive rends in Egyps poliical ransiion.)

All o his comes a a ime when new securiy problems have emerged inside o Egyp,

including ongoing hreas wihin he Sinai Peninsula rom erroris organizaions4 and

growing problems o law and order and basic securiy. A recen example o his dynamic

was seen in he deadly clashes earlier his year a demonsraions commemoraing he

second anniversary o he early 2011 revol agains ormer Egypian Presiden HosniMubarak5 and proess over deah senences handed down o soccer ans involved in

deadly rios a a mach in Por Said las year.6

Te hope or a beter uure ha housands o proesers expressed a he sar o 2011

has aded, and wo years laer Egyp aces he prospec o coninued inernal poliical

ragmenaion and a breakdown o basic governance. Te primary burden or dealing

wih hese challenges alls on Egyp, is leaders, and is people. Ouside acors such as

he Unied Saes can inuence rends in he counry, bu hey canno deermine hem.

Since he sar o Egyps poliical ransiion in 2011, he Unied Saes has made someimporan acical adjusmens o is policy on Egyp, bu is overall sraegic approach

has remained largely unchanged. Te Unied Saes has uilized several main ools o

advance is goals:

Close and regular diplomacy wih a range o Egyps leaders Coninued securiy assisance and cooperaion An addiional oer o economic assisance linked o he Inernaional Moneary

Funds eors o suppor Egyps economic sabilizaion

Te oer o economic assisance has become a principal means o engagemen wih Egyp.

Curren U.S. policy is cenered on he noion ha he prospec o suppor or economic

sabilizaion can build U.S. credibiliy wih a range o Egypians, which creaes leverage o

hold discussions wih Egyps leaders on he nex sages o poliical reorm. Te raionale

is ha economic supporcombined wih coninued bilaeral securiy cooperaion

can help Egyp move orward on a sable pah o democraic and economic reorm and

srenghen U.S.-Egypian bilaeral ies. Economic cooperaion is he chie errain ha he

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ruling Muslim Broherhood has saked ou or engaging he Unied Saes and he inerna-

ional communiy; Egyps curren ruling auhoriies undersand ha he dire economic

siuaion in Egyp requires exernal suppor and assisance.

wo years ino he ransiion, however, i remains uncerain how much leverage he

Unied Saes has managed o build or isel inside Egyp. Te curren policy approach,

wih is ocus on he links beween securiy and economics, has served some U.S.naional securiy ineress in he shor erm; he approach was, or example, insrumen-

al in managing he dangerous securiy siuaion in he Gaza Srip in November 2012,7

when he barrage o rocke atacks rom Palesinian erroriss ino Israel nearly eruped

ino a wider conic. Egyp played a pivoal role in helping de-escalae ha conic.

Neverheless, his policy approach has limiaions, given he messy poliical ransiion

process and he growing poliical and social divisions inside Egyp. Te Obama adminis-

raion has done an excellen job advancing Americas securiy ineress in he region, bu i

can do more o make clear o Egyps new leaders ha suppor o democraic values by he

curren ruling auhoriies in Egyp is jus as vial as mainaining securiy cooperaion.

Recen public saemens on his ron are a sep in he righ direcion. Presiden Barack

Obamas discussion wih Egypian Presiden Mohammed Morsi earlier his week sen

an imporan message o Egyp ha he Unied Saes places a prioriy on an inclusive

democraic ransiion.8 In addiion, a public speech by U.S. Ambassador o Egyp Anne

Paterson in Alexandria las monh rearmed ha democracy requires no simply hold-

ing elecions bu also ensuring respec or basic righs and pluralism. As Ambassador

Paterson said in her speech, Egyp needs o ensure he proecion and paricipaion o

he ull breadh o is rich apesry o ciizenry.9 Tese saemens are grounded in wha

has been defned as U.S. policy on paper.

Ocial U.S. governmen policy saes ha is aims are o help suppor a successul ran-

siion o democracy and economic sabiliy in Egyp, one ha proecs he basic righs

o is ciizens and ulflls he aspiraion o he Egypian people.10 Saed U.S. policy aims

are o suppor Egypian eors o proec civil liberies and human righs, inroduce

ransparency and accounabiliy in governmen, oser economic growh and demo-

craic insiuions, and develop a robus, independen civi l sociey.

Tese public saemens lay ou imporan markersand given he complicaions o

Egyps inernal poliics, he Unied Saes should be prepared or negaive reacions and

criicisms rom wihin Egyp ha hey amoun o meddling in Egyps inernal aairs. Bu

he Unied Saes should remain engaged in his debae and prepare or a range o conin-

gencies and possible necessary policy shis i he curren negaive rends in Egyp coninue.

As Egyp heads ino he nex phase o is ransiion, he Unied Saes should coninue o

ouline more clearly and consisenly ha i seeks o suppor a ruly ree and democraic

ransiion in Egyp. I should also underscore ha U.S. ineress and values are a sake.11

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U.S. suppor or he Egypian peoples aspiraions or a democraic Egypone ha

proecs he righs o all o is ciizens and builds a diversifed economy wih a srong

privae secorcan ensure ha Egyp is an anchor or sabiliy and progress in he

Middle Eas or decades o come. By conras, a governmen in Egyp ha lacks popular

legiimacy and does no suppor pluralism and universal valuesincluding respec or

he basic righs o all Egypians regardless o gender and aih and basic reedoms such

as hose o speech and assemblywill lead o susained inernal urmoil.12 Tis wouldulimaely hamper Egyps capaciy o serve as a viable regional securiy parner.

Te ransiion in Egyp has already aken several unexpeced urns over he pas wo

years, and uncerainy will likely remain or years o come. As a resul, U.S. policymak-

ers should ake a long view o he evens currenly playing ou in Egyp and make more

acive atemps o bend he long arc o revoluion oward a prosperous, pluralisic, and

democraic Egypone ha can serve as an anchor o sabiliy in he Middle Eas.

Civil society: Drat legislation on nongovernmental organizations cur-

rently under consideration by the Shura Councilthe upper house o

the Egyptian parliamentis considered by some human-rights groups

to be more restrictive than Mubarak-era laws. The drat law gives Egypts

Interior Ministry oversight rights over any organization, inhibits the

ormation o new organizations, and prohibits Egyptian organizations

rom engaging with international entities without proper permission

rom the government.13

Freedom of assembly: A drat public protest law currently under the

consideration o the Shura Council requires government approval o

protests, limits protests to limited areas o designation, and gives the

police wide authority to disperse protests and use lethal orce to protect

property. Rights groups such as Human Rights Watch have criticized the

drat law and its potential or abuse to inhibit the reedoms o assembly

and demonstration.14

Freedom of the press: Government ocials have been accused o pres-

suring editors and producers o various Egyptian media outlets to limit

their criticism o the Muslim Brotherhood government, including through

suspension o a satellite television station that eatured an anti-Morsi host

and confscation o copies o a newspaper that published requent criti-

cism o the Brotherhood.15

Police brutality and vigilantism: Several human-rights groups have a

cused Egyptian police o the systematic torture and abuse o and brutali

toward protesters, including the requent use o indefnite detention.

The Interior Ministry has been criticized or not responding to the Muslim

Brotherhood party cadres use o violence against political opponents an

opposition activists.16

Womens and religious rights:The new Egyptian Constitution has

raised concerns about protecting the rights o women and religiousminorities. The only mention o women in the constitution reers to thei

role in the genuine character o the Egyptian amily. Additionally, the

constitution says that religious rights are only guaranteed i they are no

in contradiction with public order. The government has taken little actio

to curb consistent claims o sexual assault against women and violence

against religious minorities.17

Blasphemy: Article 44 o the new constitution prohibits speech that

would deame religion or prophets. Prosecutors have pursued several case

against Egyptian citizens who criticized Islam and religious institutions,

handing down, or example, a three-year sentence to an individual or pos

ing a video criticizing organized religion. Whats more, a court attempted t

block YouTube access in Egypt in response to the anti-Islam Innocence o

Muslims video. The government has also fled numerous lawsuits against

journalists and activists on charges o insulting the president.18

Continued threats to freedom in Egypt

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Recommendations for U.S. policy

Egypts political transition

State clearly and regularly the U.S. interests and values at stake in Egypts political transition

One o he mos imporan hings ha he Unied Saes can do in he coming year iso make clear he ineress and values i has a sake in Egyps poliical ransiion. Te

Unied Saes should join orces wih oher key leaders in he inernaional communiy,

including is parners in he European Union, o make known is sandards and voice is

concerns abou he poliical-ransiion process. Tis does no mean, however, ha he

Unied Saes should seek o pick winners or avories in Egyps sruggle or power and

poliical legiimacysuch an atemp would likely backfre on he Unied Saes and

urher undermine he credibiliy o he poliical process.

Raher, he Unied Saes should be clear and consisen in is suppor or an inclusive

democraic poliical ransiion ha suppors pluralism and he diversiy o voices insideo Egyp. Tese saemens should no jus ocus on elecion oucomesoher key

componens o democracy and basic reedoms, such as hose o speech and assembly,

are vial as well. Te Unied Saes should be prepared o aler he basic erms o is bila-

eral relaionship wih Egyp i Egyps new leaders ail o respec democraic values.

Expand diplomatic outreach during Egypts ongoing political transition and make regular

publi c state men ts abo ut the imp or tan ce of plu ral ism

Te downall o he Mubarak regime unleashed a complex consellaion o poliical

orces and a new confguraion o power in Egyp, ranging rom he miliary and he

Muslim Broherhood o he judiciary and parliamen, rom disparae leis and liberalgroups o Salafs paries and exremis groups.19 I is imporan or U.S. ineress o navi-

gae his array o poliical orces wihou appearing o avor one a he expense o oh-

ersas i is oen accused o doing. Te Unied Saes should no rea he Broherhood

as i i is he new Naional Democraic Pary o he Mubarak regime or he sole inuen-

ial poliical orce in he counry. I is imporan ha he Unied Saes promoe plural-

ism in word and deed by engaging wih a broad range o poliical acors and encouraging

hose acors o engage wih each ohereven when he paries hold views unavorable

o he Unied Saes.

Focus diplomatic efforts on encouraging Egypt to pass a new law on nongovernmental

organizations that protects freedoms

Te Sae Deparmen should engage he Egypian governmen on he imporance o

civil-sociey issues and seek he passage o a new nongovernmenal organizaion law ha

proecs he righs o civil-sociey organizaions o operae independenly. A dra law o

associaions regulaing nongovernmenal organizaions ha was prepared and discussed

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in early 2013 has raised concerns among human righs organizaions and democraic-

developmen groups due o he role i esablished or he Egypian securiy apparaus in

overseeing Egypian civil sociey.20

Expand support to a wider range of civil-society groups

In addiion o radiional suppor or human righs and democracy-promoion groups,

he U.S. governmen should expand is suppor or Egypian nongovernmenal orga-nizaions across a wide range o secors. In paricular, he U.S. governmen and U.S.

civil-sociey groups should build relaionships wih consiuency-based civil-sociey

groups such as labor, business, armers, and proessional groups, all o which will likely

play a growing role in Egypian poliics. In addiion o supporing imporan elemens

o Egypian sociey, engagemen wih hese groups will also conribue o he deepening

and broadening o he U.S. relaionship wih Egyp.

Economic challenges

Continue to extend the offer of suppor t to Egypt in international financial institutions

Tough he Unied Saes has limied unds or direc economic assisance o Egyp,

i holds a signifcan leadership role in inernaional fnancial insiuions such as he

Inernaional Moneary Fund, or IMF, and he World Bank. Te delayed IMF loan o

Egyp remains he single mos imporan opporuniy o help Egyp reduce is $27 bil-

lion annual budge defci and dwindling oreign currency reserves.21

Furhermore, geting he IMF loan in place will send a signal o oher major donors

such as he European Union and he Gul saesand privae invesors who remain

skepical abou Egyps economic condiion ha Egyps economy is once again sableenough or inernaional invesmen. As par o his eor, he Unied Saes will need

o work wih is inernaional parners and he IMF o ensure ha a real bu manageable

schedule or economic reorms is developedwih appropriae accounabiliy require-

mens o keep he process on rack. Te implemenaion o economic reormsinclud-

ing he reorm o key sae subsidies ha help millions o ordinary Egypians obain

ood and uelwill presen a major poliical challenge, as hey will likely ace enormous

poliical opposiion among key consiuencies.

Continue to encourage private-sector investment in Egypt

Te Unied Saes should demonsrae a commimen o improving he Egypian

economy; i will be criical o resoring privae-secor confdence. Te Unied Saes can

also expand opporuniies or Egypian businesses o paricipae in exising Egypian

Qualifed Indusrial Zonesspecial ree-rade manuacuring zones ha can access

U.S. markes wihou ari or quoa resricions under cerain condiions. Te U.S.

governmen can work wih privae invesors in he regionsuch as urkey and cerain

counries in he Gulas well as U.S. businesses o suppor long-erm invesmen in

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Egyp. Privae-secor invesmen will be paricularly imporan in creaing jobs in labor-

inensive economic secors o address he unemploymen crisis.22

Finally, he Unied Saes has signifcan public and privae echnical experise ha i can

share wih Egyp o help i launch reorms and consruc a more balanced economy buil

on small- and medium-sized enerprises. U.S. public and privae resourcesincluding

he Chamber o Commerce, fnancial insiuions, and he Deparmen o Commercecould equip Egypian enrepreneurs wih he legal, fnancial, managemen, and marke-

ing skills o operae in an open, compeiive economy. Tis will have he added benef

o developing greaer U.S.-Egypian ies among privae businesses, labor unions, and

rade associaionsa criical componen o he bilaeral relaionship.

Security relationship

Maintain support for the full security-assistance packagefor now

Despie calls rom some in Congress o suspend annual U.S. miliary aid o Egyp overhe curren problems wih he poliical ransiion,23 now is no he ime o cu o aid o

Egyp. Te overall aid package should be muually negoiaed wih Egyp over ime

no suddenly cu o in a momen o crisis. Cuting o aid is a dramaic gesure only o

be used in he mos exreme circumsances.

Tough his is no ha ime, he Unied Saes should make absoluely clear o he

Egypian governmen wha acions would consiue grounds or immediae erminaion

o miliary aid. Tese negaive developmens may include laws ha resric civil liberies

or enrench single-pary rule, poliically moivaed prosecuions, or he reusal o abide

by securiy commimens, paricularly reliigaion o he 1979 Egyp-Israel Peace reay.

Reform the structure of U.S. military aid to meet Egypts security needs

In order o address he mos signifcan securiy hreas acing Egyp odaysuch as mili-

an exremis groups in he Sinai24he Unied Saes should adjus bilaeral raining exer-

cises such as Brigh Sara join miliary exercise held every wo years designed o improve

readiness and ineroperabiliy beween he Unied Saes and Egyp25o ocus on non-

sae acors and special operaions insead o jus convenional miliary hreas. Addiionally,

unds or U.S. miliary aid should shi away rom heavy weaponry sysems and oward more

echnical raining programs, bilaeral exercises, and service-academy exchanges.

Broaden and deepen the security relationship

Some o he mos imporan elemens o he miliary-o-miliary relaionship are he

exchanges and ineracions beween U.S. and Egypian orces. Te Unied Saes should

seek o maximize unding or Inernaional Miliary Educaion and raining o creae more

opporuniies or regular miliary-o-miliary exchanges and ineracion. Tis is imporan

in order o oser working relaionships wih he nex generaion o miliary leaders.

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Work to create more functional trilateral U.S.-Egypt-Israel coordination on security matters

Te Unied Saes, Egyp, and Israel should work ogeher o esablish a long-erm plan

o manage heir riangular relaionship so ha hey can eecively deal wih coninued

hreas such as erroris elemens in he Sinai. Such a plan will allow he Unied Saes

and Israel o hink ou coningencies in advance raher han being caugh unprepared

and orced o improvise.

Recommendations to the Egyptian government

Egypian Presiden Mohamed Morsis governmen has no eecively addressed he

inerlinked series o poliical, economic, and securiy challenges acing he counry. And

he lack o a credible economic agenda and an overwhelming ocus on he consolidaion

o execuive power has only exacerbaed many o hese problems.

Firs and oremos, he Morsi governmen and he Muslim Broherhood should develop

a more inclusive posure when engaging wih oher ineres groups and poliical pariesin order o incorporae hem ino he decision-making process. Te syle o majoriarian

poliics ha he Muslim Broherhood is currenly pracicing is no an accepable way o

govern. As a pracical mater, his syle o governing has crippled Egyps overall abiliy

o deal wih is policy agenda.

Te lack o inclusiviy and broad consulaion in he process o secure a new consiu-

ion in lae 2012 caused considerable damage o Egyps uniy. Engaging more regularly

wih key sakeholders in a manner ha acknowledges and respecs he ineress o a wide

range o poliical groups will help reduce much o he poliical ension in Egyp, and i

will ulimaely allow Presiden Morsi o govern he counry more successully.

Tis sor o execuive leadership and consulaion wih oher key domesic and inerna-

ional sakeholders will be crucial o addressing Egyps shor- and long-erm economic

challenges. Securing he IMF loan is he single mos valuable sep ha he Egypian

governmen can immediaely ake o miigae he shor-erm crises o declining oreign

currency reserves, he decreasing value o he Egypian pound, and a growing budge

defci.26 Agreeing o he IMF loan and he atached economic reorms will send a posi-

ive signal o much-needed oreign invesors ha Egyp is serious abou puting isel on

a susainable economic pah orward. Implemening he economic reormsand iming

he removal o he subsidies or uel and energy in paricularwill presen considerable

challenges and cause domesic urmoil.

Egyps inecien energy and ood subsidy program, which accouned or 27 percen o

governmen spending in 2011,27 should be reormed o beter arge hose mos in need,

and i should evenually be replaced wih a condiional cash-ranser program modeled

on similar iniiaives worldwide such as Brazils successulBolsa Famlia program.28

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In he medium o long erm, he governmen will also need o work wih he Egypian

miliary o narrow he miliary s long-held economic role o clearly miliary-relaed

secors, while improving he privae secors capaciy o provide basic and commercial

goods. Finally, Egyps inormal secor economywhich comprises an esimaed 40

percen o he counry s economy and 82 percen o he counrys businesses29should

be incorporaed ino he ormal Egypian economy hrough a reducion in bureaucraic

red ape, increased access o fnancing, and an improved ax sysem or businesses.

Egyp will also need o make long-erm srucural reorms o is securiy inrasrucure,

which will need o address he counrys modern securiy challenges, boh domesic and

oreign, in order o ensure Egyps erriorial inegriy and sabiliy. Te civilian govern-

men should coordinae wih he Egypian miliary o ideniy major modern hreas o

Egypian securiy, including exremis miliias in he Sinai Peninsula, weapons proliera-

ion caused by loose borders wih Libya and Sudan, and poenial humaniarian crises

caused by ood or waer shorages.

Te Egypian governmen can ransorm he counrys securiy posure over he nexdecade by uilizing he resources made available hrough he U.S. securiy-assisance

package and building bilaeral and regional securiy relaionships in he Middle Eas and

Norh Arica. Securiy reorm will also need o include a reorganizaion o he Inerior

Minisry o end he culure o police brualiy and orure, which will coninue o under-

mine inernal securiy and creae he sor o lack o basic law and order ha has been

seen on he Egypian srees over he pas ew monhs.

Conclusion

2013 will be anoher pivoal year in Egyps ransiion, and he Unied Saes has a srong

ineres in seeing sabiliy, prosperiy, and pluralism in Egyp. Egyp also needs suppor

rom he Unied Saes o advance is sraegic and economic ineress in he long run.

In he pas wo years, he Obama adminisraion has aken a pragmaic approach o

managing he ransiion in Egyp. Bu he looming poliical legiimacy crisis and he

growing inernal divisions require ha he Unied Saes more clearly presen is iner-

ess and values in suppor o rue democraic and inclusive poliical reorm in Egyp.

Te Obama adminisraion needs o prepare a range o opions i Egyps curren rends

oward shuting down dissen and closing o open debae coninue. Tis should include

examining ways o inroduce more exibiliy in bilaeral assisance so ha more empha-

sis is placed on supporing inclusive democraic governance. I should also include con-

sidering opions or compleely renegoiaing he basic erms o he bilaeral relaionship

i he recen worrisome rends in Egyps poliical ransiion coninue.

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Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. Ken Sofer is a Research

Associate with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center. Peter Juul is

a Policy Analyst with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center.

Endnotes

1 Egypt parliament election start moved to April 22,Reuters, February 23, 2013, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/23/usegyptparliamentidUSBRE91M03S20130223.

2 Ken Soer, Timeline: Key Events in Egypts Transition,Center or American Progress, March 1, 2013, avail ableat http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2013/03/01/55124/.

3 Unemployment rate rises to 13 percent, Egypt Independent,February 16, 2013, available at http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/unemploymentraterises13percent.

4 David D. Kirkpatrick, Sinai Group Claims Role in Attack onIsrael, The New York Times, September 23, 2012, available athttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/world/middleeast/sinaimilitantsclaimroleinisraelborderattack.html.

5 Marwa Awad and Ali Abdelaty, Egypt protesters, policeclash on Mubarak anniversary, Reuters, February 11, 2013,available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/11/usegyptprotestsidUSBRE91A0WQ20130211.

6 Amir Ahmed and Chelsea J. Carter, Clashes eruptater Egypt court sentences 21 to death in ootball riot,CNN, January 26, 2013, available at http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/26/world/meast/egyptsoccerdeaths.

7 CNN Wire Sta, Egypt and Morsy proved pivotal in Gazaceasere talks, CNN, November 22, 2012, available athttp://www.cnn.com/2012/11/20/world/meast/egyptgazamorsy.

8 The White House, Readout o the Presidents Phone Callwith Egyptian President Morsy, Press release, February 26,2013, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/thepressoce/2013/02/26/readoutpresidentsphonecallegyptian

presidentmorsy.

9 Embassy o the United States in Cairo, Egypt, AmbassadorPatterson Remarks at the Rotary Club o A lexandria, Pressrelease, February 10, 2013, available at http://egypt.usembassy.gov/pr021013.html.

10 Bureau o Near Eastern Aairs, U.S. Relations with Egypt(U.S.Department o State, 2012), available at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5309.htm.

11 Other analysts have recently made the case or elevatingsupport or democracy in U.S. policy. See Robert Kaganand Michele Dunne, U.S. needs to show Egypt some toughlove, The Washington Post, February 20, 2012, available athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/timetogettoughwithegyptandmorsi/2013/02/20/7e1343c67aba11e282e861a46c2cde3d_story.html; Tamara ComanWittes, Egypt Two Years Ater the Revolution: Where EgyptStands, What the United States Can Do, Testimony to theU.S. House o Representatives Committee on Foreign Aairs,

Subcommittee on Middle East and North Arica, February26, 2013, available at http://www.brookings.edu/research/testimony/2013/02/26middleeastnortharicawittes.

12 For an earlier argument in avor o supporting pluralism inEgypts transition, see Brian Katulis, Support Pluralism inEgypts Transition, Center or A merican Progress, January27, 2012, available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/01/27/10864/supportpluralisminegyptstransition/.

13 Kristen Chick, Is the Muslim Brotherhood seeking to killEgypts NGOs? The Christian Science Monitor, February 22,2013, available at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/MiddleEast/2013/0222/IstheMuslimBrotherhoodseekingtokillEgyptsNGOs/.

14 Human Rights Watch, Egypt: Amend Drat DemonstrationsLaw February 25, 2013, available at http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/02/25/egyptamenddratdemonstrationslaw.

15 Kareem Fahim and Mayy El Sheikh, Egypts Islamist LeadersAccused o Stifing Media,The New York Times, August 15,2012, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/world/middleeast/egyptsislamistsaccusedolimitingpressreedom.html?pagewanted=all; Thanassis Cambanis,The Triple Threat to Egyptian Press Freedom,The Atlantic,February 19, 2013, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/02/thetriplethreatto

egyptianpressreedom/273303//.

16 Sarah El Deeb, Egyptian rights groups allege rising policybrutality, Yahoo! News, February 20, 2013, available athttp://news.yahoo.com/egyptrightsgroupsallegerisingpolicebrutality171011551.html; Robert Mackey, Clashes inCairo Ater Morsi Supporters Attack Palace SitIn, The Ledeblog, December 5, 2012, available at http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/clashesincairoatermorsisupportersattackpalacesitin/.

17 Vivienne Walt, Womens Rights at Odds in Egypts Constitution Wars, Time, December 9, 2012, available at http://world.time.com/2012/12/09/womensrightsatoddsinegyptsconstitutionwars/; Osman El Sharnoubi, New Egyptianconstitution oers ewer religious reedoms, critics allege,Ahram Online, October 2, 2012, available at http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/54582.aspx; Egyptian Initiative orPersonal Rights Operation AntiSexual Harassment/Assaultcondemns the attacks on women in Tahrir Square on Friday

January 25th, the ailure o political groups to secure thesquare and unproessional medi a conduct, Press release,January 29, 2013, available at http://eipr.org/en/pressrelease/2013/01/29/1612.

18 K risten Chick, Insulting religion: Blasphemy sentence i nEgypt sends a c hill, The Christian Science Monitor, December12, 2012, available at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/MiddleEast/2012/1212/InsultingreligionBlasphemysentenceinEgyptsendsachill; Associated Press, EgyptianCourt Orders Block on YouTube Access,The New YorkTimes, February 9, 2013, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/world/middleeast/egyptcourtordersblockonyoutubeoverantiislamvideo.html; Salma ElWardany, Insult charges on rise under Mohammed Morsi,The Boston Globe, January 23, 2013, available at http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptianlawsuitsorinsultingpresidentsoarundermorsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.html.

19 For a more complete analysis o the competing centers o

power in Egypt, see Brian Katulis, Managing Change inEgypt: Advancing a New U.S. Policy that Balances RegionalSecurity with Support or Political and Economic Reorms(Washington: Center or American Progress, 2012), availableat http://www.americanprogress.org/wpcontent/uploads/issues/2012/06/pd/egypt_change.pd.

20 Kristen Chick, Is the Muslim Brotherhood seeking to killEgypts NGOs? The Christian Science Monitor, February 22,2013, available at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/MiddleEast/2013/0222/IstheMuslimBrotherhoodseekingtokillEgyptsNGOs.

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st/egypt-court-orders-block-on-youtube-over-anti-islam-video.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/world/middleeast/egypt-court-orders-block-on-youtube-over-anti-islam-video.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/world/middleeast/egypt-court-orders-block-on-youtube-over-anti-islam-video.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/06/pdf/egypt_change.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/06/pdf/egypt_change.pdfhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-seeking-to-kill-Egypt-s-NGOshttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-seeking-to-kill-Egypt-s-NGOshttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-seeking-to-kill-Egypt-s-NGOshttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-seeking-to-kill-Egypt-s-NGOshttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-seeking-to-kill-Egypt-s-NGOshttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-seeking-to-kill-Egypt-s-NGOshttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/06/pdf/egypt_change.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/06/pdf/egypt_change.pdfhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/01/23/egyptian-lawsuits-for-insulting-president-soar-under-morsi/ubrhEZIeeHzJWjW8kU9JkI/story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/world/middleeast/egypt-court-orders-block-on-youtube-over-anti-islam-video.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/world/middleeast/egypt-court-orders-block-on-youtube-over-anti-islam-video.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/world/middleeast/egypt-court-orders-block-on-youtube-over-anti-islam-video.htmlhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/1212/Insulting-religion-Blasphemy-sentence-in-Egypt-sends-a-chillhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/1212/Insulting-religion-Blasphemy-sentence-in-Egypt-sends-a-chillhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/1212/Insulting-religion-Blasphemy-sentence-in-Egypt-sends-a-chillhttp://eipr.org/en/pressrelease/2013/01/29/1612http://eipr.org/en/pressrelease/2013/01/29/1612http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/54582.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/News/54582.aspxhttp://world.time.com/2012/12/09/womens-rights-at-odds-in-egypts-constitution-wars/http://world.time.com/2012/12/09/womens-rights-at-odds-in-egypts-constitution-wars/http://world.time.com/2012/12/09/womens-rights-at-odds-in-egypts-constitution-wars/http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/clashes-in-cairo-after-morsi-supporters-attack-palace-sit-in/http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/clashes-in-cairo-after-morsi-supporters-attack-palace-sit-in/http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/clashes-in-cairo-after-morsi-supporters-attack-palace-sit-in/http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-rights-groups-allege-rising-police-brutality-171011551.htmlhttp://news.yahoo.com/egypt-rights-groups-allege-rising-police-brutality-171011551.htmlhttp://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/02/the-triple-threat-to-egyptian-press-freedom/273303//http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/02/the-triple-threat-to-egyptian-press-freedom/273303//http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/02/the-triple-threat-to-egyptian-press-freedom/273303//http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/world/middleeast/egypts-islamists-accused-of-limiting-press-freedom.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/world/middleeast/egypts-islamists-accused-of-limiting-press-freedom.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/world/middleeast/egypts-islamists-accused-of-limiting-press-freedom.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2013/02/25/egypt-amend-draft-demonstrations-lawhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2013/02/25/egypt-amend-draft-demonstrations-lawhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-seeking-to-kill-Egypt-s-NGOs/http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0222/Is-the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11 Center or American Progress | Preparing U.S. Policy or the Next Phase o Egypts Transition

21 Ministry o Finance, The Financial Monthly(Arab Republic oEgypt, 2013), available at http://www.mo.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/Reports/monthly/2013/Jan2013/ull%20version.pd.

22 Neera Tanden, Democracy Also Means Opportunity: AnEconomic Growth Agenda to Foster Democracy in Egypt,February 17, 2011, available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2011/02/17/8981/democracyalsomeansopportunity/.

23 US plan or Egypt aid hits roadblock, Al Jazeera, September29, 2012, available at http://www.aljazeera.com/news/

americas/2012/09/201292901924654975.html.

24 Kirkpatrick, Sinai Group Claims Role in Attack on Israel.

25 Egypt Ministry o Deense, Exercise Bright Star 09/10 (UnitedStates Central Command, 2009), available at http://www.centcom.mil/brightstar.

26 Ministry o Finance, The Financial Monthly,p. xi.

27 Ministry o Finance, States General Budget for Fiscal Year2011/12: Volume One: Central Administration Budget,(ArabRepublic o Egypt, 2011), available at http://www.mo.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/State_Budget20112012/vol1CAB.pd.

28 Fbio Veras Soares, Raael Perez Ribas, and Raael GuerreiroOsrio, Evaluating the Impact o Brazils Bolsa Famlia:Cash Transer Programs in Comparative Perspective,Latin

American Research Review45 (2) (2010): 173190, availableat http://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/

journals/latin_american_research_review/v045/45.2.soares.html.

29 Ibrahim Said, Challenges o Egypts Economic Transition(Washington: Carnegie Endowment or International Peace,2011), available at http://carnegieendowment.org/les/egypt_econ_transition.pd.

http://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/Reports/monthly/2013/Jan2013/full%20version.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/Reports/monthly/2013/Jan2013/full%20version.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/Reports/monthly/2013/Jan2013/full%20version.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2011/02/17/8981/democracy-also-means-opportunity/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2011/02/17/8981/democracy-also-means-opportunity/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2011/02/17/8981/democracy-also-means-opportunity/http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/09/201292901924654975.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/09/201292901924654975.htmlhttp://www.centcom.mil/brightstarhttp://www.centcom.mil/brightstarhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/State_Budget2011-2012/vol1-CAB.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/State_Budget2011-2012/vol1-CAB.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/State_Budget2011-2012/vol1-CAB.pdfhttp://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/latin_american_research_review/v045/45.2.soares.htmlhttp://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/latin_american_research_review/v045/45.2.soares.htmlhttp://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/latin_american_research_review/v045/45.2.soares.htmlhttp://carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_econ_transition.pdfhttp://carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_econ_transition.pdfhttp://carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_econ_transition.pdfhttp://carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_econ_transition.pdfhttp://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/latin_american_research_review/v045/45.2.soares.htmlhttp://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/latin_american_research_review/v045/45.2.soares.htmlhttp://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/latin_american_research_review/v045/45.2.soares.htmlhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/State_Budget2011-2012/vol1-CAB.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/State_Budget2011-2012/vol1-CAB.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/State_Budget2011-2012/vol1-CAB.pdfhttp://www.centcom.mil/brightstarhttp://www.centcom.mil/brightstarhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/09/201292901924654975.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/09/201292901924654975.htmlhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2011/02/17/8981/democracy-also-means-opportunity/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2011/02/17/8981/democracy-also-means-opportunity/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2011/02/17/8981/democracy-also-means-opportunity/http://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/Reports/monthly/2013/Jan2013/full%20version.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/Reports/monthly/2013/Jan2013/full%20version.pdfhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/MOFGallerySource/English/Reports/monthly/2013/Jan2013/full%20version.pdf

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12 Center or American Progress | Preparing U.S. Policy or the Next Phase o Egypts Transition

January 2011:Aciviss in Egyp call or an uprising

o proes unemploymen, severe povery, corrup-

ion, and he hree-decade rule o Presiden Hosni

Mubarak. Tousands gaher a ahrir Square in

downown Cairo or a day o rage. Te successive

days o rallies urn violen as Egypian police atackproesers, fring ear gas and using waer cannons.

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2011

Egypt Revolution Timeline

February 2011:Presiden Mubarak resigns he

presidency aer 18 days o public demonsraions and

more han 800 proesers dead. Power is ranserred

he Supreme Council o he Armed Forces, or SCAF,

headed by Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein anawior a six-monh ransiion period unil an eleced civil

ian governmen can ake over. Te SCAF immediaely

dissolves parliamen and suspends he consiuion.

March 2011:Te SCAF consiuional reorm com-

mitee proposes a series o changes o he exising

consiuion, which are passed wih a 77 percen

approval in a public reerendum, paving he way orparliamenary and presidenial elecions iniially

scheduled or laer in 2011.

MarchNovember 2011:A series o violen proess

occur, leading o heavy brualiy and souring public

senimen. Te securiy insiuions exending he

Mubarak-era emergency laws, are accused o sexually

abusing emale aciviss, and kills dozens o proes-

ers in several clashes. Te violence culminaes in he

securiy insiuions use o armored vehicles and live

ammuniion o suppress a proes by Copic Chrisian

in Maspero, resuling in 28 deahs and 212 injuries.

Phase 1: The Tahrir revolution

Phase 2: Military rule

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ASSOCIATED PRESS/AMR NABIL

ASSOCIATED PRESS/ TARA TODRAS-WHITEHILL

ASSOCIATED PRESS/ LEFTERIS PITARAKIS

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13 Center or American Progress | Preparing U.S. Policy or the Next Phase o Egypts Transition

ASSOCIATED PRESS/AMR NABIL

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November 2011February 2012:Aer a series o

delays, parliamenary elecions conclude wih he

Muslim Broherhood gaining a pluraliy, winning 47

percen o he seas in parliamen. Te more conser-

vaive Islamis pary Al-Nour comes in second wih

25 percen o he voe. Te Islamis-dominaed parlimen appoins an Islamis-dominaed Consiuen

Assembly o dra a new consiuion.

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2011

April 2012: Te Broherhood goes back on is pledge o no seek he presidency, puting orh Khaira el-Shaer

as a candidae. Egyps presidenial elecion commission, however, subsequenly rules 10 o he 23 candidaes,

including el-Shaer, ineligible. Te Broherhood aps Mohamed Morsi as heir replacemen candidae.

May 2012:Muslim Broherhood candidae Mohamed

Morsi and ormer Mubarak-era Prime Miniser Ahmed

Shafq are he op wo voe geters in he frs round o

presidenial voing wih 24.8 percen and 23.7 percen

respecively. Te wo emerged ou o a divided elecor

edging ou Nasseris candidae Hamdeen Sabahi (20.7

percen), ormer Muslim Broherhood leader Abdel

Moneim Aboul Foouh (17.5 percen), and ormer Ar

League Secreary General Amr Moussa (11.1 percen)

August 2012: Masked gunmen open fre on an

Egypian army checkpoin in he Sinai Peninsula,

killing 15 soldiers. Morsi orces Field Marshal

anawi, Army Chie o Sa Sami Anan, and severa

oher op generals o reire ollowing he Sinai atac

Morsi names Gen. Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi o replace

anawi and nullifes he SCAFs consiuional dec

laraion ha curailed he powers o he presidency

Phase 3: Contested and unclear transition

Phase 4: Reassertion of presidential dominance

ASSOCIATED PRESS/BELA SZANDELSZKY

ASSOCIATED PRESS/ARIEL SCHALIT

2012

June 2012: Days beore he runo presidenial voe, he judiciary rules exising parliamenary elecion laws

unconsiuional. Te SCAF orders he Broherhood-dominaed parliamen disbanded, assumes legislaive

power, and severely limis he power o he presidency. Following he presidenial runo, ouside observers

claim Morsi received he mos voes, bu boh Morsi and Shafq declare vicory. Aer a week o uncerainy, he

naions elecion commission announces ha Morsi is he winner by a voe o 51.7 percen o 48.3 percen.

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November 2012:Over he course o hree days, 26 lib

eral and Chrisian represenaives walk ou in proes o

Egyps 100-person Consiuen Assembly. Morsi issu

a decree graning himsel broad execuive and legislaiv

powers, including giving himsel judicial immuniy, ju

a day aer winning inernaional acclaim or his role inhelping o secure a ceasefre beween Israel and Hama

in he Gaza Srip. Morsi supporers argue he move is

a emporary bu necessary move o cu hrough he

counrys poliical deadlock.

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NovemberDecember 2012:Aer repors ha he Supreme Consiuional Cour is preparing o disband he

Consiuen Assembly, he Assembly announces i will fnish draing he consiuion ha day, hree monhs

earlier han scheduled. Te dra consiuion is approved he nex day by he Consiuen Assembly and Morsi

announces a naional reerendum. Te speed and exclusiviy o he process leads o ani-Morsi proess across

he counry wih many calling or his resignaion. Te consiuion is approved by a wo-sage naional reeren-dum 64 percen o 36 percen. Bu low voer urnou, urban opposiionincluding 57 percen o Cairo voers

disapprovingand elecion irregulariies mar he legiimacy o he oucome.

JanuaryFebruary 2013: Major ani-Morsi proess

erup in Cairo, Alexandria, and Por Said riggered b

he anniversary o he 2011 revoluion and he sen-

encing o deah o 21 soccer ans ollowing a rio h

previous year. Morsi calls or a naional dialogue wi

opposiion leaders in an eor o deuse he proess

2013

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