Working togetherfor a safer world

European Transport Conference 2014

Session 7: Rail Planning and Policy

Frankfurt, 01 October 2014, 10.30-12.30h

Jack E. Doomernik

PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL SYSTEMS

Performance and efficiency of high-speed rail systems

• Policy context

• Research goal and methodology

• Model and data

• Results

• Conclusions

The demand for high-speed transport

• Rising income leads directly torising demand for mobility.

• As mobility grows, travelersshift to faster modes to remainwithin the fixed travel time budget of 1.1 h per day.

• The trend for Europe over the last 15 years shows a strong correlation between GDP andtraffic volume.

• Per capita motorized traffic increased with 17%, whereHS-modes have grown 58% between 1995 and 2009.

High Speed

modes

All Motorized

modes

Source: EC, Statistical Pocket Book 2011

High-speed network in the world

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

19

64

19

69

19

74

19

79

19

84

19

89

19

94

19

99

20

04

20

09

20

14

20

19

20

24

Netw

ork

length

(km

)

Europe Asia Rest World

• First HS-line opened in

Japan in 1964.

• In Europe, France

started operation on the

Paris-Lyon TGV line in

1981

• Asia and Europe are

taking the lead in HSR

developments

• In 2009 the total length

of the HSR network in

Asia exceeded Europe

due to the new-built

projects in China

• Rest of the world is

following slowly

Source: UIC, High speed Lines in the world 2012, 2011 (planned HSR projects added by author)

Why is assessment of actual HSR performance needed?

• The building of high-speed rail systems requires substantial investment and

efficient use of these capital-intensive assets is needed to justify the investments

made.

• Long-term performance forecasts for high-speed rail are a basic input for the

decision-making process, but in the operational stage, the assumptions need to be

validated based on the actual system performance.

• Improvement in production efficiency and service effectiveness is important to

optimize operational performance and productivity.

Research goal and methodology

Research goal:

• Identify the best high-speed rail practices in the world and clarify the efficiency of

the world’s major high-speed rail systems currently in operation.

Methodology overview:

• Efficiency comparison of four Asian (Japan, Taiwan, China, Korea) and four

European (France, Germany, Spain, Italy) networks between 2007 and 2012

• The efficiency is benchmarked using a 2-stage Network Data Envelopment

Analysis (NDEA) model

• Actual performance data and system characteristics regarding travel performance,

ridership, train fleet and network is used

• The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is applied to capture the dynamics in

efficiency and technological change

• Production efficiency and service effectiveness scores are presented in

performance matrices

High-Speed Rail as a Multi-Input-Multi-Output system

Production

process

Fleet Capacity (AS)

Network Length (NL)

Travel Volume (TV)

Ridership (RS)

Fleet

Performanc

e

(FPS)Consumption

process

Production Efficiency Service

Effectiveness

System Efficiency

Inputs Outputs

The efficiency and effectiveness scores and Malmquist productivity indices are

calculated for the overall process and the two separate stages.

Performance matrix, efficiency and effectiveness

Performance can be defined as an

appropriate combination of efficiency

and effectiveness:

• Efficiency, the ratio between

output and input, is a key

performance parameter indicating

if assets are properly used.

• Effectiveness indicates if the

inputs are properly used to

produce the best possible

outcome.

The correlation between efficiency

and effectiveness gives an answer

to the question whether efficient

organisations are also effective or

not.

Input and output variables

Variable

NL FS AS FPT FPS RS TV

Network

LengthFleet Size

Available

Seats

Fleet

Performanc

e

Fleet

Performanc

e

RidershipTravel

Volume

IndicatorTotal route-

km

Number of

trains

Number of

available

seats

(thousands)

Yearly train-

km of fleet

(millions)

Yearly seat-

km of fleet

(billions)

Yearly

number of

passengers

(millions)

Yearly

passenger-

km (billions)

Unit km - - km km - km

Europe mean 1391 243 105.9 95.1 42.1 60.0 24.1

(N=4) SD 91 26 12.1 10.3 4.8 7.5 3.5

min 562 97 37.5 45.4 13.4 11.4 8.5

max 2056 475 216.4 182.6 83.2 115.5 54.0

Asia mean 2885 449 278.4 177.5 111.3 222.6 65.3

(N=4) SD 433 63 38.4 25.4 15.7 32.4 9.5

min 330 30 29.7 7.9 7.8 15.6 3.5

max 6405 632 455.4 300.0 216.2 485.5 144.6

• In Asia the average

number of seats per

train (ratio AS/FS) is

620 compared to 436

for Europe.

• Asia produces 2.7

times more travel

volume with only 86%

more train kilometres.

• In Asia the average

travel distance (ratio

TV/RS) in Asia (293

km) is less than in

Europe (402 km).

• Seat occupancy (ratio

of TV and FPS) is

comparable for Europe

(57%) and Asia (59%).

Malmquist Productivity Index

2012-2007

Malmquist Productivity

Index (MPI)

Europe 0.998

Asia 1.269

Europe + Asia 1.125

Efficiency Change (EC)

Europe 0.856

Asia 1.179

Europe + Asia 1.005

Technical Change (TC)

Europe 1.166

Asia 1.076

Europe + Asia 1.120

• The MPI reflects a 12.5% productivity improvement for the

whole peer group from 2007 till 2012.

• This is caused by technical change rather than

improvement of efficiency.

• In five years, Asia achieved a productivity growth of 26.9%,

where both technical efficiency improvements (+17.9%)

and technology change (+7.6%) contributed to the overall

productivity growth.

• Europe didn´t show any productivity improvement because,

despite the 16.6% technical change, efficiency dropped

with 14.4%.

Performance of four European and four Asian high-speed rail

networks (2007 – 2012)

Overall efficient DMU’s are coloured green and inefficient ones orange (overall efficiency between 0.75 and 1.00) or red

(overall efficiency between 0.50 and 0.75).

Correlation coefficients between Production Efficiency and

Service Effectiveness

Region

CRS Model VRS Model

Service Effectiveness

Europe + Asia

Pro

du

ctio

nE

ffic

ien

cy

-0,091 -0,179

Europe -0,657 -0,661

Asia -0,170 -0,128

• There is a negative correlation

between production efficiency

and service effectiveness.

• For Asia, a 10% production

growth leads to 1 - 2% loss of

service effectiveness.

• For Europe, this effect is much

stronger as a 10% increase in

production efficiency comes

with a 7% loss in service

effectiveness.

The best high-speed rail practices on efficiency can be found in Asia

• The DEA model shows that Asian high-speed rail systems are fully efficient in the VRS

model and Asia outperforms Europe regarding production efficiency and service

effectiveness.

• Between 2007 and 2012, Asia achieved a productivity growth of 26.9%, while Europe

didn´t show any productivity improvement.

• Taiwan is the only DMU that has achieved a productivity index above unity in every

successive year. Year-on-year Taiwan has improved their service effectiveness

compared to others.

• Underperformer in Asia is China, that achieved to keep up efficiency, but shows a

decreasing technical change of 12.2%. China was able to be fully efficient in their

marketing process.

• In Europe, France is the best performer. Italy appears to be the worst performer and

Germany and Spain are in the middle of the spectrum.

• The results show a negative correlation between production efficiency and service

effectiveness. For Europe, this effect is much stronger than for Asia where a 10%

increase in production efficiency comes with a 7% loss in service effectiveness.

Lloyd’s Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyd’s Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates.

Copyright © Lloyd’s Register [Entity]. 2013. A member of the Lloyd’s Register group.

… thank you for your kind attention!

Jack Doomernik

Lloyd’s Register Antwerp University

Asset Management Consulting Applied Economics

T +31 (0)6 5338 9081

E jack.doomernik@lr.org E jacobus.doomernik@student.uantwerpen.be

W www.lr.org W www.uantwerpen.be

Working togetherfor a safer world