Parallel Session:Implementing Future Energy Systems

Erik LysenUtrecht Centre for Energy research (UCE)

KEMA Conference: Implementing the Third Industrial RevolutionArnhem, 15 October 2009

3. C

lea

ne

r Us

e o

f Fo

ssil F

ule

s

1. E

ffic

ien

t E

ne

rgy

Use

2. Renewable Energy resources

ConsumersBuildingsIndustriesTransport

Supply sideDemand side

Wind energySolar energyBio-energyGeothermalHydro powerMarine energy

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)HydrogenFuel CellsEnergy

Policy

Integral strategy sustainable energy system: Trias Energica

Lysen, Eurosun Conference, Sept. 1996

Despite pressures on the energy sector ...

Regulation of

Monopolies

Innovation and

Competitiveness

Low Prices

And Efficiency

Primary Energy

Sources

Reliability and

Quality

Capacity

NaturePreservation

ClimateChange

Kyoto andPost-Kyoto

Inte

rnal

Mar

ket

Security of Supply

Environment

… one starts implementing the future …• EDF Energies Nouvelles orders NGK battery system

with an output of 150 MW, mainly used in photovoltaic plants (Japan Corporate News, 13 May 2009)

• Declaration by European Electricity Sector CEOs: “Will Achieve a carbon-neutral power supply in Europe by 2050” (Eurelectric,18 March 2008)

• Amsterdam launches ambitious electric cars scheme: city council plans to open 200 electric charging stations by 2012 (NRC, 25 March 2009)

• Green power takes root in Chinese desert. China Guangdong Nuclear Power Comp. winning bidder solar plant with 16 $cents/kWh (NY Times, 7 March 2009)

… (more examples) …• Vaillant and Honda develop cogeneration system for

single family homes in Europe; in Japan and the U.S. more than 80,000 cogeneration systems have been installed (Press release Honda-Vaillant, 10 March 2009)

• BASF, Linde, RWE pilot CO2 scrubbing plant opens (Carbon Capture Journal, Sept 2009)

• Google contest will award $10 million to develop five innovative ideas that aim to change the world by helping as many people as possible. Google has been sifting through over 100,000 entries (in 25 languages)

… based on innovative businesses• Cohesion is required for innovation and

implementation

Source: Van Someren. Strategische Innovationen. 2005: Abbildung 9.15: Institutionalisierte Innovation. Gabler Verlag

time

uniqueness

Creative entrepreneur

Business model

Context

People

Technology

We will discuss three topics today:

1. Distributed Generation (DG)

2. Electrical Mobility (EV)

3. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Topic 1 – Distributed Generation (DG)

Energy demand will grow due to economic developments

Reduction emissions: need for efficiency and renewables and CCS

Long term: transition to renewables

Source: Advisory Council to the German Government on Global Climate Change (2003)

Predicting markets: What will be the main barrier for DG in 2050 ?

Too high cost for DG 16%

Network not ready to work as smart grid

20%

Storage not available 26%

CCS enables fossil fuels to be used

14%

No worldwide CO2 regulation

10%

Revival of nuclear energy 14%

Topic 2 – Electrical mobility (EV)

History of Electric Vehicles• First car (1890’s)• Every 20 years revival• 80’s• Current developments

Porsche, 1899

Electric vehicles: Why?

• Environment:– CO2 emission reduction

– No local emissions

• Flexibility in usage (renewable) fuels• Lower (future) prices• Image

Breakthrough of EV

• Technology Batteries, charging, infra

• People Acceptance

• Creative Entrepreneurs

• Business Model Challenge

• Context Environment, Government, Public opinion

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

a.Conventional

car

b. Fuel cellcar

c. Hybridelectric car

d. Plug-inhybrid electric

car

e. Electric carwith rangeextender

f. Full electriccar

%

202020302050

Predicting market: what will be the dominant car type in 2020-2030-2050?

Topic 3 – Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Improve efficiency, reduce GHG emissions and have more kWh’s from 1 kg of coal.

CO

2-E

mis

sio

n

average, world

EU 27

PC Technologytoday

700°C-PCTechnology

CO2- Emissionfree Power Plant

2005 2010 2020

Efficiency

CO2 Emissions

Consumption of Coal

30%1.116 g CO2/kWh

480 g Coal/kWh 38%

881 g CO2/kWh379 g Coal/kWh 45%

743 g CO2/kWh320 g Coal/kWh > 50%

669 g CO2/kWh

288 g Coal/kWh

Apply c

o-firin

g with

biom

ass

and C

CS

CO2 Injection and Storage Activities (IEA GHG)

Nagaoka

Hokkaido

Qinshui Basin

Snohvit

Sleipner

In Salah

Key

ECBM projects

EOR projects

Gas production Fields

Saline aquifier

Sibilla

RECOPOL/MOVECBM

CO2 SINK

K-12B

Frio

West Pearl Queen

Mountaineer

WeyburnAlberta ECBMTeapot Dome

RangelyBurlington

4 CO2-EOR Pilots in Canada

50 Acid Gas injection sites in North America

70 CO2-EOR projects in U.S.A.

Depleted Oil Field

Otway Basin

4 CO2-EOR projects in Brazil.

10 new 1mt CO2

injection projects by 2010 projects in U.S.A.

Kuwait Oil

The public perception of CCS depends on awareness for climate change.

NL

UK

US

• CCS rated more favorable for deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions than nuclear or intensive energy savings

• CCS generally recognized as a potentially important carbon mitigation option

• CCS considered less favorable, even compared to nuclear, after giving information on the technology

Predicting markets: What will be the main barrier for CCS in 2050 ?

Cost competitiveness compared to alternatives

18%

CO2 market price not global and not stable

18%

Availability and safety of geological storage

26%

Public acceptance 20%

Regulation and permits 18%

There is a lot of work to do for us all !

Thank you for your attention.