302
| Date post: | 19-Dec-2015 |
| Category: |
Documents |
| View: | 220 times |
| Download: | 1 times |
Principles of Systems Dynamics
Modeling and Analysis
Principles of Systems Dynamics
Modeling and Analysis
Pål I. [email protected] of Geography,
University of Bergen,N-5020 Bergen,
fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134
Pål I. [email protected] of Geography,
University of Bergen,N-5020 Bergen,
fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134
Knowledge elicitation
Knowledge elicitation
Problem identification
Problem identification
Problem solving
Problem solving
ManagementManagement
Knowledgedissemination
Knowledgedissemination
System DynamicsSystem Dynamics
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
Backlog
Backlog Management
ExpOrdRate 1RepairRate2DesRepairRate3OrderRate4
0 50 1001.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1 2 3 4
1
2
3
4 12
3
4
a.
ExpOrdRate 1RepairRate2DesRepairRate3OrderRate4
0 50 1001.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1 2 3 4
1
2
3
4 12
3
4
Backlog1DesBacklog2
0 50 1004.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
1 2
1
2
1
2
b.
StructureStructure
EventsEvents
BehaviorBehavior
Structure(underlying causes)
Structure(underlying causes)
Events(symptoms)Events
(symptoms)
Behavior(dynamics)
Behavior(dynamics)
Structure(underlying causes)
Structure(underlying causes)
Events(symptoms)Events
(symptoms)
Behavior(dynamics)
Behavior(dynamics)
Dec
isio
n
Dec
isio
n Making
Making
Structure(underlying causes)
Structure(underlying causes)
Events(symptoms)Events
(symptoms)
Behavior(dynamics)
Behavior(dynamics)
Dec
isio
n
Dec
isio
n Making
Making
Polic
yPo
licy D
esign
Design
Structure(underlying causes)
Structure(underlying causes)
Events(symptoms)Events
(symptoms)
Behavior(dynamics)
Behavior(dynamics)
Polic
yPo
licy D
esign
Design
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
Polic
yPo
licy D
esign
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
StructureStructureBehaviorBehavior
Polic
y
Polic
y Design
Design
Stra
tegy
Stra
tegy
Developm
ent
Developm
ent
Point of Departure:
Problem behavior
Point of Departure:
Problem behavior
t
t
Identify:
Underlying Problem Structure
Identify:
Underlying Problem Structure
t
Identify:
NewSolution Structure
Identify:
NewSolution Structure
t
t
t
Goal:Desired behavior
t t
t t
NewSolution Structure
NewSolution Structure
Underlying Problem Structure
Underlying Problem Structure
Desired behaviorProblem behaviorProblem behavior
HypothesisDevelopment & Testing
Stra
tegy
Stra
tegy
Developm
ent
Developm
ent
=>
System dynamicsa
problem-orientedmultidisciplinary
approach
=>
System dynamicsa
problem-orientedmultidisciplinary
approach
t
Underlying Problem Structure
Underlying Problem Structure
Problem behaviorProblem behavior
The model shouldgenerate
the original behavior
for the right reasons
The model shouldgenerate
the original behavior
for the right reasons
t
NewSolution Structure
NewSolution Structure
Desired behavior=>
The model willgenerate
the desired behavior
for the right reasons
=>The model will
generate
the desired behavior
for the right reasons
t
The model shouldexplain
not “just”predict
The model shouldexplain
not “just”predict
t
tt
The model must constitute a
causal feedback theory
The model must constitute a
causal feedback theory
Stra
tegy
Stra
tegy
Developm
ent
Developm
ent
BehaviorBehavior
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
StructureStructure
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilize
the relationship:
System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilize
the relationship:
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilize
the relationship:
System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilize
the relationship:
incomplex, dynamic systems
SS DD
ComplexityComplexity
SimplicitySimplicity
SS DD
RealismRealism
AbstractionAbstraction
RealismRealism
AbstractionAbstraction
It is better to find …It is better to find …
thanthan
… a satisfying solution to a problem that exists …… a satisfying solution to a problem that exists …
… an optimal solution toa non-existing problem
… an optimal solution toa non-existing problem
MaintainingRealism
MaintainingRealism
We must not onlymodel explicitly
“the plumbing of the system”
We must not onlymodel explicitly
“the plumbing of the system”
Make observations Form expectations
Establish attitudes
Act on incentives (decide)
We need to describe how we;We need to describe how we;
Actual Observed Confirmed Projected Desired Expected magnitudes
We need to differentiate between;
We need to differentiate between;
Petroleum Exploration
Perceived Perceived
ProductivityProductivity
ReportedReported
ProductivityProductivity
Estimated Estimated
ProductivityProductivity
ActualActual
ProductivityProductivity
Exploration EffortsExploration Efforts
DesiredDesired
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
Estimated Estimated
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
IdealIdeal
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
Petroleum Exploration
Perceived Perceived
ProductivityProductivity
NominalNominal
ProductivityProductivity
ReportedReported
ProductivityProductivity
Estimated Estimated
ProductivityProductivity
ActualActual
ProductivityProductivity
DesiredDesired
ProductivityProductivity
ProductivityProductivity
IncentivesIncentivesExploration EffortsExploration Efforts
DesiredDesired
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
Estimated Estimated
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
IdealIdeal
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
Petroleum Exploration
Perceived Perceived
ProductivityProductivity
NominalNominal
ProductivityProductivity
ReportedReported
ProductivityProductivity
Estimated Estimated
ProductivityProductivity
ActualActual
ProductivityProductivity
DesiredDesired
ProductivityProductivity
ProductivityProductivity
IncentivesIncentivesExploration EffortsExploration Efforts
DesiredDesired
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
Estimated Estimated
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
IdealIdeal
DiscoveriesDiscoveries
StructureStructure
BehaviorBehavior
System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilize
the relationship:
System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilize
the relationship:
incomplex, dynamic systems
ComplexityComplexity
Accumulation Accumulation FeedbackFeedback
Non-linearityNon-linearity
Complexitya synergy of
Complexitya synergy of
FeedbacksFeedbacks
Non-linearitiesNon-linearities
Accumulations ≡ Latencies / Delays
Accumulations ≡ Latencies / Delays
Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays
Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays
ComplexityComplexity
… the origin of dynamics… the origin of dynamics
Instantaneous causality
Causalityplaying out over time
0
t0 1
t0 1
In a causality thatspans time
nothing happens instantaneously
In a causality thatspans time
nothing happens instantaneously
0
t0 1
t0 1
Effects unfoldover time
Effects unfoldover time
900
Accumulations
distribute and form the effects of a change
across a system(in space)over time
Accumulations
distribute and form the effects of a change
across a system(in space)over time
InventoryProduction
RateShipment
Rate
A first order accumulation process (building up distance)
Manpower
Inventory
Hiring &Training Rate
ProductionRate
ShipmentRate
AttritionRate
A second order accumulation process (building up speed)
Manpower
Inventory
Trainers
Hiring &Training Rate
ProductionRate
ShipmentRate
AttritionRate
Training Cap.Building Rate
Training Cap.Decay Rate
A third order accumulation process (building up accell.)
Manpower
Inventory
Trainers
Hiring &Training Rate
ProductionRate
ShipmentRate
AttritionRate
Training Cap.Building Rate
Training Cap.Decay Rate
Manpower
Inventory
Trainers
Hiring &Training Rate
ProductionRate
ShipmentRate
AttritionRate
Training Cap.Building Rate
Training Cap.Decay Rate
Manpower
Inventory
Trainers
Hiring &Training Rate
ProductionRate
ShipmentRate
AttritionRate
Training Cap.Building Rate
Training Cap.Decay Rate
Manpower
Inventory
Trainers
Hiring &Training Rate
ProductionRate
ShipmentRate
AttritionRate
Training Cap.Building Rate
Training Cap.Decay Rate
Manpower
Inventory
Trainers
Hiring &Training Rate
ProductionRate
ShipmentRate
AttritionRate
Training Cap.Building Rate
Training Cap.Decay Rate
Multiple accumulations
introduceintransparency that leads us to
focus on short-term problems while ignoring
long-term benefits
Multiple accumulations
introduceintransparency that leads us to
focus on short-term problems while ignoring
long-term benefits
Multiple accumulations
introduceintransparency that leads us to
focus on short-term benefits while ignoring
long-term problems
Multiple accumulations
introduceintransparency that leads us to
focus on short-term benefits while ignoring
long-term problems
GainGain
Additional ComplexityAdditional Complexity
ReputationReputation
LossLoss
GainGain
Indicated Rep. > ReputationIndicated Rep. > Reputation
ReputationReputation
LossLoss
IndicatedReputationIndicated
Reputation
Time to GainReputation
Time to GainReputation
GainGain
Indicated Rep. < ReputationIndicated Rep. < Reputation
ReputationReputation
LossLoss
IndicatedReputationIndicated
Reputation
Time to LooseReputation
Time to LooseReputation
GainGain
Additional ComplexityAdditional Complexity
ReputationReputation
LossLoss
IndicatedReputationIndicated
Reputation
Time to LooseReputation
Time to LooseReputation
Time to GainReputation
Time to GainReputation
Latenciesand
the time over whichthe effects play out
are often misperceivedmore often
underestimated than overestimated
Latenciesand
the time over whichthe effects play out
are often misperceivedmore often
underestimated than overestimated
Stocks+
Flows
Stocks+
Flows
Backlog
OrderPlacement
Rate
OrderExecution
Rate
Inventory
ProductionRate
DeliveryRate
Cash
RevenueRate
PaymentRate
Personnel
HiringRate
AttritionRate
Capital
AcquisitionRate
DiscardRate
PaymentRate
DepreciationRate
BookValue
Capital
AcquisitionRate
DiscardRate
PaymentRate
DepreciationRate
BookValue
Capital
AcquisitionRate
DiscardRatePrice
PaymentRate
DepreciationRate
BookValue
Capital
AcquisitionRate
DiscardRatePrice
Annual Fraction Depreciated
Annual Fraction Discarded
IdentifiedReserves
DiscoveryRate
ProductionRate
Depreciation
Rate
BookValue
IdentifiedReserves
DiscoveryRate
ProductionRate
ExplorationExpenditures
Depreciation
Rate
BookValue
IdentifiedReserves
DiscoveryRate
ProductionRate
ExplorationExpenditures
Cum Production
Recovery Technology
Total Recoverable Resource Remaining(CumulativeProduction + IdentifiedReserves)*FractionRecoverable
-CumulativeProduction)
Depreciation
Rate
BookValue
IdentifiedReserves
DiscoveryRate
ProductionRate
Unit Exploration Expenditures
ExplorationExpenditures
Total Recoverable Resource Remaining
Recovery Technology Cum
Production
Depreciation
Rate
BookValue
IdentifiedReserves
DiscoveryRate
ProductionRate
Unit Exploration Expenditures
ExplorationExpenditures
Total Recoverable Resource Remaining
Recovery Technology Cum
Production
No stocks,no state
No stocks,no state
No stocks,no state
No stocks,no state
No flows,no dynamics
No flows,no dynamics
Stocksact asbuffers
they de-couple flows
Stocksact asbuffers
they de-couple flows
Stocksintegrate
flows
Stocksintegrate
flows
Debt
Import Rate Export Rate
Stocksintegrate
flows
Stocksintegrate
flows
Debt
Import Rate Export Rate
Debt
-Export Rate
Net Import Rate=
Import Rate
The Debt Model
Debt
0
t0 1
t0 1
-Export Rate
Import Rate
Debt
0
t0 1
t0 1
-Export Rate
Import Rate
Debt
0
t0 1
t0 1
Stocksconstitute
delays
Stocksconstitute
delays
-Export Rate
Import Rate
Just like driving a car .......Capital
Personnel
Shipments
Inventory
Exp. Demand
AttritionRecruitment
Acquisitions Phase-outs
Production
Adj. Exp.Demand
Market Demand
ComplexityComplexity
Dynamics Dynamics
DelayDelay FeedbackFeedback
Non-linearityNon-linearity
Delay
Distributes the effectof our efforts
through the system over time
Delay
Distributes the effectof our efforts
through the system over time
Price-+
DemandSupply
Perceived Shortages
+-
Delaydistributes the effect
of our effortsthrough the system over time
Delaydistributes the effect
of our effortsthrough the system over time
Price-+
DemandSupply
Perceived Shortages
+-
Delayobscures
the relationship betweencause and effect
Delayobscures
the relationship betweencause and effect
Price-+
DemandSupply
Perceived Shortages
+-
=>It is difficult to …
=>It is difficult to …
Price+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply
identify problems(what are their causes)
identify problems(what are their causes)
-
Price+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply
take effective actions(what do they cause)take effective actions(what do they cause)
-
Price-+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply
… and feedback ...
… and feedback ...
+… does not make it
less difficult… does not make it
less difficult
Price-+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply
A note on ...A note on ...
+… econometrics… econometrics
Price-+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply
A note on ...A note on ...
+
… the significance of
the time horizon
… the significance of
the time horizon
ComplexityComplexity
FeedbackFeedback
Non-linearityNon-linearity
Accumulation Accumulation
Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays
Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays
ComplexityComplexity
From the origin of dynamics to… From the origin of dynamics to…
FeedbackFeedback
ComplexityComplexity
Accumulations ≡ Latency/ DelayAccumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay
… circular causality … circular causality
Circular causality
leadus to reason in circles:
Cause becomes effectand
effect becomes cause
Circular causality
leadus to reason in circles:
Cause becomes effectand
effect becomes cause
This is why we need to say
Some change in Bleads to a change in A …
which over a period of time
leads to a change in B
This is why we need to say
Some change in Bleads to a change in A …
which over a period of time
leads to a change in B
A BA B
Price-+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply
SpeculativeDemand
+
+
SpeculativeSupply
-
-
- -
+++
Price-+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply +
SpeculativeDemand
+
+
SpeculativeSupply
-
-
- -
Price-+
Perceived Shortages
DemandSupply +
SpeculativeDemand
+
+
SpeculativeSupply
-
-
- -
+-
MoreFeedback
(FblExmpls)
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Strengthenfavorable loops
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Strengthenfavorable loops
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Strengthenfavorable loops
Weakenunfavorable loops
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Strengthenfavorable loops
Weakenunfavorable loops
Price-+
+
Perceived Shortages
Demand-
Supply
+
SpeculativeDemand
+
+
SpeculativeSupply
-
-
- -
++
Challenge:
What loops arefavorable or unfavorable
variesfrom one point in time
to the nextbecause …
Challenge:
What loops arefavorable or unfavorable
variesfrom one point in time
to the nextbecause …
Effects take timeEffects take time
Effects feed backEffects feed back
... not only do... not only do
Effects take timeEffects take time
Effects feed backEffects feed back
Effects also synergizeEffects also synergize
FeedbacksFeedbacks
Non-linearitiesNon-linearities
Complexitya composite of
Complexitya composite of
Accumulations ≡ Latency/ DelayAccumulations ≡ Latency/ Delay
ComplexityComplexity
FeedbackFeedback
Non-linearityNon-linearity
Accumulation Accumulation
Non-linearity
causes
the response to a change in a variable
to be conditioned bythe state
of the system…
Non-linearity
causes
the response to a change in a variable
to be conditioned bythe state
of the system…
Efficiency in Exploration
50
25
0 0.5 1Fract. Total Resource
Remaining Undiscovered
0
...(1) by the value of the variable itself.. ...(1) by the value of the variable itself..
Efficiency in Exploration
50
25
0 0.5 1Fract. Total Resource
Remaining Undiscovered
0
Non-linearity
causes
the response to a change in a variable
to be conditioned bythe state
of the system…
Non-linearity
causes
the response to a change in a variable
to be conditioned bythe state
of the system…
Z=
X * Yor
X / Yrather than
X + Y or X - Y
Z=
X * Yor
X / Yrather than
X + Y or X - Y
X Y
.. (2) by the value of other variables.. .. (2) by the value of other variables..
Subsystem I Subsystem II
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Productivity From Technology*
Effect Of ExplorationOn Productivity
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Productivity From Technology*
Effect Of ExplorationOn Productivity
Technology
ExplorationFinance
Investments
Productivity
Eff. Of ExplorationOnProductivity
To be continued ...
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
UndiscoveredResource
(UR)
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource
(UR)(UR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource
(UR)(UR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
TechnologicalTechnologicalProgressProgress
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource
(UR)(UR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
TechnologicalTechnologicalProgressProgress
ExplorationExplorationProgressProgress
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource
(UR)(UR)
Productivity From TechnologyProductivity From Technology==
Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR)
//Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource
(UR)(UR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
Productivity From TechnologyProductivity From Technology==
Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR)
//Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)
TechnologicalTechnologicalProgressProgress
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource
(UR)(UR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
Effect of Exploration Effect of Exploration On ProductivityOn Productivity
==
Undiscovered Resource (UR) Undiscovered Resource (UR) //Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
UndiscoveredUndiscoveredResourceResource
(UR)(UR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
ExplorationExplorationProgressProgress
Effect of Exploration Effect of Exploration On ProductivityOn Productivity
==
Undiscovered Resource (UR) Undiscovered Resource (UR) //Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Productivity From Technology*
Effect Of ExplorationOn Productivity
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Productivity From Technology*
Effect Of ExplorationOn Productivity
Technology
ExplorationFinance
Investments
Productivity
Eff. Of ExplorationOnProductivity
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)
*
Undiscovered Resource (UR) Undiscovered Resource (UR) //Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //Undiscovered Resource (UR)Undiscovered Resource (UR)
*
Undiscovered Resource (UR) Undiscovered Resource (UR) //Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)
Cumulative
Identified Resource
Additions to
TechnicallyUndiscoverable
Resource Remaining
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //
Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)
Yield=
Investments * Productivity=
Investments*
Techn. DiscoverableTechn. DiscoverableResource Remaining (TDRR)Resource Remaining (TDRR) //
Total Resource (TR)Total Resource (TR)
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
TechnicallyDiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
TechnologicalTechnologicalProgressProgress
ExplorationExplorationProgressProgress
…so thatnon-linearity
causes
effects to becomeblended
…so thatnon-linearity
causes
effects to becomeblended
=>=>Non-linearity
makes it difficult to
establish experiencewith respect to
underlying causes(diagnosis)
andleverage points, doses and timing
(treatment)
Non-linearitymakes it difficult to
establish experiencewith respect to
underlying causes(diagnosis)
andleverage points, doses and timing
(treatment)
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Demand
-Investm. in Prod.
% of Investmentsin Production
Investm. in R&D
Qlt
+
+
R&DEfficiency
Price
Price/QLT Sales
Revenue
ProductionCapacity
ProductionRate
InventoryLevel
++
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+ ++
+
+-
Non-linearitymakes it difficult to
utilize formal analysis
Non-linearitymakes it difficult to
utilize formal analysis
SS DD
RealismRealism
AbstractionAbstraction
It is better to be almost right(ca. 7.5) …It is better to be almost right(ca. 7.5) …
…precisely wrong(3.85564923557)
…precisely wrong(3.85564923557)
thanthan
Non-linearity
=>Endogenous
shifts in structural dominance
Non-linearity
=>Endogenous
shifts in structural dominance
Interdisciplinary analogies
Reality checks
Defining loops that serve a purpose
Interdisciplinary analogies
Reality checks
Defining loops that serve a purpose
Population
Population
Birth Rate
Birth Rate Death Rate
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
RGF*P
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
RGF*PRGF*P
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
C
RGF*PRGF*P
Carrying Capacity
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
P/C
Stress
C
RGF*PRGF*P
Carrying Capacity
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
P/C
Stress
C
RGF*S*PRGF*P
Carrying Capacity
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
P/C
Stress
C
RGF*P*P/CRGF*P
Carrying Capacity
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
RGF*P2/CRGF*P
Population
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Birth Rate Death Rate
RGF*P
+ -
Population
RGF*P2/C
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 10
+ -
5
Months
Population
+
NetGrowthRate
Pop
ulat
ion
0 50 100 150 200 2500
200
400
600
800
1,000
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 10
+ -
5
Months+
Population
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 10
+ -
5
Months
Infectious
+
Population
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 10
+ -
5
Months
Susceptible
Infectious
+
Population
Infectious
c * i * S/N * I
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
- +
Prob Of Mtg. Susc. Hot Contacts Per Week
S/N c * I
Contact Frequency
c
Infectivity
i
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
Population
Birth Rate Death Rate
P/C
Stress
C
RGF*P*SRGF*P
Carrying Capacity
-+
-
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
c * i * I
Note:If the entire population
was susceptible,then all meetings with aninfections is potentially
a recruitment:
-+
-
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
I/N
Growth Resistance
N
c * i * I
Total PopulationNote:
No more thanthe total population
Nmay become
infectiousi.e. the total populationis the carrying capacity
-+
-
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
I/N
Growth Resistance
N
c*i*I*GRc * i * I
Total PopulationNote:
The fractionI/N
of the populationhas already been infectedand a meeting between
such a personand
another infected does NOT contribute to
recruitment
-+
-
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c*i*I*I/Nc * i * I
N
-+
-
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c * i * I
Recruitmentunder the assumption that
the total population is susceptible
c*i*I*I/N-+
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c * i * I
Recruitmentunder the assumption that
the total population is susceptible
Recruitmentfailing because a fraction (I/N) of
the total population is not susceptible
c*i*I*I/N-+
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c*i*I2/Nc * i * I-+
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c*i*I2/Nc * i * I
Net Recruitment Rate
c * i * I - c*i*I2/N
-+
c*i
Reference Growth Fraction
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c*i*I2/Nc * i * I
Net Recruitment Rate
c * i * I * (1 - I/N)
Recruitmentsucceeding because a fraction (1 - I/N)
of the total population is still susceptible
-+
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c*i*I2/Nc * i * I
Net Recruitment Rate
-+
c * i * I * (1 - I/N)
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
c*i*I2/Nc * i * I
Net Recruitment Rate
-+
c * i * I * (1 - I/N)
Infectious
c*i*I2/N
Net Recruitment Rate
c * i * I -+
c * i * I * (1 - I/N)
Infectious
c*i*I2/N
c * i * I
Net Recruitment Rate
-
+
c * i * I * (1 - I/N)
Infectious
c * i * (1 - I/N) * I
Net Recruitment Rate
Infectious
c * i * (1 - I/N) * I
Net Recruitment Rate
InfectiousSusceptible
c * i * (1 – (N-S)/N) * I
Net Recruitment Rate
- +
InfectiousSusceptible
c * i * ((N – (N-S))/N) * I
Net Recruitment Rate
- +
Infectious
c * i * S/N * I
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
- +
Infectious
c * i * S/N * I
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
- +
Prob Of Mtg. Susc. Hot Contacts Per Week
S/N c * I
Contact Frequency
c
Infectivity
i
Infectious
c * i * I/N * S
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
- +
Infectious
c * i * I/N * S
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
- +
Prob Of Mtg. Susc. Hot Contacts Per Week
S/N c * I
Contact Frequency
c
Infectivity
i
Infectious
Net Recruitment Rate
c * i * I *S/N
Susceptible
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate Failed Recruitment Rate
(c * i) * I (c*i*I/N)*I
NOTE:Although the models are equivalent,
the positive and negative loops in these two models are not the same!They ”tell the story” in two very different ways
- +
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 10
+ -
5
Months
Susceptible
Infectious
+
-
Infectious
NetRecruitmentRate
Infectious
Susceptible
NetRecruitmentRate
Susceptible
+
SummarySummary
Endogenous Shiftsin
Structural Significance
Diffusion and DepletionProcesses
Masking anegative loop
by apositive loop
Endogenous Shiftsin
Structural Significance
Diffusion and DepletionProcesses
Masking anegative loop
by apositive loop
Exploration Rate
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploration Rate
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploration Potential
Exploitation Rate
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Exploration Rate
Exploited
Exploitation Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploited
Exploration Potential
Exploited
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Exploration Rate
Exploitation Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploited
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploited
Investments inExploration
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Revenues Exploited
Investments inExploration
Productivityin Exploration
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Revenues Exploited
Investments inExploration
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Revenues Exploited
Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation RateInvestments inExploration
Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration
Investments inExploration Technology
Exploration Technology
+Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Revenues Exploited
Productivity of Investmentsin Technology
Investments inExploration Technology
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation RateInvestments inExploration
Revenues
Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration
Investments inExploration Technology
Exploration Technology
+Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Investments inTechnology
Exploited
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Investments inTechnology
Productivity of Investmentsin Technology
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation Rate
Revenues
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploited
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Investments inTechnology
Productivity of Investmentsin Technology
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
Revenues
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploited
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Investments in Technology
Productivity of Investments
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+Revenues
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploited
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+Exploited
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
Exploration Technology
+ -+
ExploitedExploration Technology
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation RateInvestments inExploration
Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration
Investments inExploration Technology
Exploration Technology
+Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Revenues Exploited
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation RateInvestments inExploration
Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration
Investments inExploration Technology
Exploration Technology
+Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Revenues Exploited
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
-
Exploitation RateInvestments inExploration
Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Revenues Exploited
Exploration Technology
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
Exploitation RateInvestments inExploration
Productivity of Investmentsin Exploration
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Revenues
Investments in Exploration
Productivity of Investments
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+Revenues
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
ExploitationRate Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Exploration Potential
Exploration Rate
+
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
+ -+
Explored / Exploit. Pot
-
Undiscovered
Discovery Rate
+
Discovered
+ -+
Discovered
CAIR
TUdRR
Technically DiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
TechnologicalTechnologicalProgressProgress
ExplorationExplorationProgressProgress
Investment and technology loop dominance
Investment and technology loop dominance
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 100
+
50 Years
+
UndiscoveredDiscovered
Discovered
Discovery Rate
+
CAIR
TUdRR
Technically DiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
TechnologicalTechnologicalProgressProgress
ExplorationExplorationProgressProgress
-
Undiscovered
Depletion loop dominanceDepletion loop dominance
Discovered
Discovery Rate
+
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 100
+ -
50 Years
UndiscoveredDiscovered
+
TUdRR
Technically DiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
DTPDTP
EPEP
-
Undiscovered
Depletion loop dominanceDepletion loop dominance
Discovered
Discovery Rate
+
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 100
+ -
50 Years
UndiscoveredDiscovered
+
CAIR
TUrRR
Technically RecoverableResource Remaining
(TRRR)
TUdRR
Technically DiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
DTPDTP
EPEP
-
Undiscovered
Depletion loop dominanceDepletion loop dominance
Discovered
Discovery Rate
+
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 100
+ -
50 Years
UndiscoveredDiscovered
+
CAIR
RTPRTP
PPPP
TUrRR
Technically RecoverableResource Remaining
(TRRR)
TUdRR
Technically DiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
DTPDTP
EPEP
Recovered
Production Rate
+
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 100
+
50 Years
UndiscoveredDiscovered
CAIR
RTPRTP
PPPP
+
Investment and technology loop dominance
Investment and technology loop dominance
TUrRR
Technically RecoverableResource Remaining
(TRRR)
TUdRR
Technically DiscoverableResource Remaining
(TDRR)
Total ResourceTotal Resource(TR)(TR)
DTPDTP
EPEP
-
Unrecovered
Depletion loop dominanceDepletion loop dominance
Recovered
Production Rate
+
5 000-
0
10 000-
0 100
+
50 Years
UndiscoveredDiscovered
CAIR
RTPRTP
PPPP
-+
Could this modelbe applied in the
health sector?
Patients who, techno-logically considered,
cannot be treated
Patients who, techno-logically considered,
may be treated
Alle PasienterAlle Pasienter
TechnologicalTechnologicalprogressprogress
Progress in Progress in utilizationutilization
-
Untreated
Shift in loop-dominanceShift in loop-dominance
Treated
Progress
+
Patients
treated
A diffusion model
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Strengthenfavorable loops
Weakenunfavorable loops
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Strengthenfavorable loops
Weakenunfavorable loops
What loops arefavorable or unfavorable
variesfrom one point in time
to the next!
What loops arefavorable or unfavorable
variesfrom one point in time
to the next!
NoteNote
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
In developing robust policies,management must establish a
surveillance ofloop dominance
In developing robust policies,management must establish a
surveillance ofloop dominance
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
Managementfrom a
System Dynamicsperspective
so as to decide onwhich to weaken
andwhich to strengthenat any point in time
so as to decide onwhich to weaken
andwhich to strengthenat any point in time
In developing robust policies,management must establish a
surveillance ofloop dominance
In developing robust policies,management must establish a
surveillance ofloop dominance
BehaviorBehavior
StructureStructure
SPREADSHEET
Multimedia databasesMultimedia databases
Modern Problem Statement Format:Modern Problem Statement Format:
Point of departurePoint of departure
Source Material
FormalizationFormalization
Source Material
SD-model
DocumentationDocumentation
Source Material
SD-model
Design and ControlDesign and Control
Source Material
SD-model
ILE
Source Material
SD-model
ILE
IllustrationIllustration
Source Material
SD-model
ILE
TransparencyTransparency
The Modeling Process
The Modeling Process
Problem articulation
Formulation of dynamic hypothesis
Formulation of simulation model
Testing
Policy design & evaluation
Problem articulation
Formulation of dynamic hypothesis
Formulation of simulation model
Testing
Policy design & evaluation
A predator prey model
HLstart
HL5
HL6
Peter M. Senge:
The Fifth Discipline
From Archetypesto
Generic Structures & Behaviorand back again.....
Peter M. Senge:
The Fifth Discipline
From Archetypesto
Generic Structures & Behaviorand back again.....
Limits to GrowthLimits to Growth
Eroding GoalsEroding Goals Escalation => Success to the SucessfulEscalation => Success to the Sucessful
Tragedy of the CommonsTragedy of the Commons Fixes that FailFixes that Fail Shifting the Burden to the IntervenerShifting the Burden to the Intervener => =>
Dependency & AddictionDependency & Addiction
Archetypes
Class of Challenges
ProblemSymptom
Own solution-
Class of Solutions:Shifting the burden to an intervener
Intervention
Own solution
-
-Problem
Symptom
Class I of Side Effects:Dependence
Intervention
Own solution
Ability tosolve+
-
-Problem
Symptom
+
Class II of Side Effects:Addiction
Intervention
Own solution
Ability tosolve
-
-
Quality ofIntervention
ProblemSymptom +
A Dynamic Story Problem Behavior
ExpOrdRate 1RepairRate2DesRepairRate3OrderRate4
0 50 1001.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1234
1
2
3
4 12
3
4
a.
ExpOrdRate 1RepairRate2DesRepairRate3OrderRate4
0 50 1001.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1234
1
2
3
4 12
3
4
Backlog1DesBacklog2
0 50 1004.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
12
1
2
1
2
b.
Backlog
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
Backlog
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
Backlog
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
Backlog
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
DesBacklog
Backlog
Backlog Management
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
Backlog
Backlog Management
- Backlog Adjustment
Backlog Order Rate
Ideal StructureIdeal Structure
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
Response of the Backlog model to a 10% step increase in orders in week 10
ExpOrdRate RepairRateDesRepairRate
0 50 100900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Response of the Backlog model to a 10% increase in orders in week 10
BacklogDesBacklog
0 50 100
3,000
4,000
5,000
A Dynamic Story Additional Evidence
A Dynamic Story Additional Evidence
Backlog1DesBacklog2
0 50 1004.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
12
1
2
1
2
WorkForce1DesWorkForce2
0 50 10050
52
54
56
58
60
12
1
2
1
2
HireRate1QuitRate2
0 50 1001,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
12
1
2
1
2
c.
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
Backlog
Backlog Management
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
OrderRate
DesRepairRate
Backlog
Backlog Management
-
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog Order Rate
Problem StructureProblem Structure
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
ExpOrdRate 1RepairRate2DesRepairRate3OrderRate4
0 50 1001.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1234
1
2
3
4 12
3
4
a.
ExpOrdRate 1RepairRate2DesRepairRate3OrderRate4
0 50 1001.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1234
1
2
3
4 12
3
4
Backlog1DesBacklog2
0 50 1004.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
12
1
2
1
2
b.
SolutionSolutionOvertimeOvertime
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
OrderRate
DesRepairRate
Backlog
Backlog Management
Inventory model diagram
Orders
Expectations
ProductionPlanning
Inventory Management
Labor Management
ROR
ChghEOR
TAOR
ExpOrderRate
HireRateQuitRate
ADE
Productivity
SchedPressure
Backlog
RepairRate
DesBacklog
DesDelDelTCB
CorrBacklog
NormaRepairRate
ESPRR
DesWorkForce
CorrWorkForce
TCWF
WorkForce
DesRepairRate
OrderRate
Backlog
Backlog Management
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
Order Rate
Long term solutionLong term solution
-
-
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
WorkforceNormal Repair Rate
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Hire Rate
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
Order Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
Long term solutionLong term solution
--
+
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
Trouble I: DependenceTrouble I: Dependence
+
--
+
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBF
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
Trouble II: AddictionTrouble II: Addiction
+
--
+
+
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBF
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
Trouble II: AddictionTrouble II: Addiction
+
--
+
+
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBFComplexityComplexity
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBFNeg. FeedbackNeg. Feedback
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
--
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBFPos. FeedbackPos. Feedback
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
+
--
+
+
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBFDelayDelay
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
+
--
+
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
+
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBFNon-linearityNon-linearity
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
+
--
+
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
+
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
Schedulepressure
1
1-
o.8-
1.25-
o.5 1.5
Overtime
Graph
1
1-
o.5 1.5
MTBF
Graph
?
?
Schedulepressure
MTBFNon-linearityNon-linearity
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
+
--
+
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
+
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
MTBF
Schedule Pressure
Des Workforce
Workforce
Backlog Adjustment
Backlog
Effect of Over-time On Repair Rate
+
--
+
Order Rate
Expected Over-time
+
Normal Repair Rate Hire Rate
Des Repair Rate
Repair Rate
UncertaintyUncertainty
Class of Challenges
Own solution-
Problem
Instance of a Challenge
-Recruitment
Under-/Over-Capacity
Class of Solutions:Shifting the burden to an intervener
Intervention
Own solution
-
-Problem
Instance of a Solution:Shifting the burden to the workforce
-
-
Overtime
Recruitment
Under-/Over-Capacity
Class I of Side Effects:Dependence
Intervention
Own solution
Ability tosolve
-
-+Problem
Instance I of a Side Effect:Dependence on Overtime
Recruitment
Ability/willingn.to recruit
-
-
Overtime
Under-/Over-Capacity +
Class II of Side Effects:Addiction
Intervention
Own solution
Ability tosolve
-
-
Quality ofIntervention
+
+
Problem
Instance II of a Side Effect:Increasing load through decreased MTBF
Under-/Over-Capacity
Recruitment
+-
-
MTBF
Overtime
Ability/willingn.to recruit
+
SPREADSHEET
Multimedia databasesMultimedia databases
Modern Problem Statement Format:Modern Problem Statement Format:
Point of departurePoint of departure
Source Material
FormalizationFormalization
Source Material
SD-model
DocumentationDocumentation
Source Material
SD-model
Design and ControlDesign and Control
Source Material
SD-model
ILE
Source Material
SD-model
ILE
IllustrationIllustration
Source Material
SD-model
ILE
TransparencyTransparency
