Probabilistic Leak Before Break of 540 MWTarapur :3/4 PHWR
H. S. Kushwaha
4th AERB-NRC Technical Discussion Meeting
Aug. 30 – Sept. 3, 2004
Use of PRA in LBB analysis
2
Basic Steps in LBB
• Level 1 : Stringent design criteria
• Level 2 : Fatigue crack growth analysis
• Level 3 : Instability analysis
3
Level 1 Safety Analysis in LBB
• Design done with a well-defined factor ofsafety using ASME Sec.III.
• Does not consider the presence of flaw.
• Sufficiently tough material is chosen forpiping components.
• Minimize number of weld joints
• 100% radiography/ultrasonic Examination.
4
Level 2 Safety Analysis in LBB
crack
• Postulate part-through flaw that escape NDT
• Perform fatigue crack growth study of the flawover the entire life period of the reactor.
• Show that the final flaw size is less than 75% ofwall thickness
5
Level 3 Safety Analysis in LBB
• Identify the critical location: Section with less favorablecombination of stress and material properties.
• Postulate a through wall crack (LSC). that will lead to detectable leakage.• Perform stability assessment and calculate the critical load
(Mc) of the piping component with postulated LSC.• Calculate critical crack size (ac) with the
maximum credible load on piping component.• Demonstrate : Mc/(MNOC+SSE) = 1 and ac/LSC = 1 for ABS
load earthquake combination
crack
6
Application of LBB requires
• Knowledge of DBA loads• Geometry of the pipes• Material properties of pipe• Leakage size crack
• Some of these show variability• Requires Application of Probabilistic Fracture
MechanicsProbability that LSC is not critical under NOC+SSE
7
Salient Features of the Analysis
• Critical locations• Welds in straight pipe• Elbows, Crack at Extrados
� Steam Generator Inlet (SGI)� Steam Generator Outlet (SGO)� Pump Discharge Line (PDL)
• Critical Load: NOC + SSE
10
Reliability analysis
• Data for uncertainty quantification• Material Properties
� Fracture Toughness, Fracture Resistance curve� Yield Stress, Ultimate Stress, Stress-Strain Curve
• Leakage size crack• Frequency of occurrence of SSE load
• Mechanism of failure• Net Section Collapse• J-Tearing: Crack Driving Force• R6: Failure Assessment Diagram
14
BARC: Comprehensive ComponentIntegrity Test Program
• Fracture tests : 45 (CS) + 14 (SS)• Fatigue tests : 28 (CS) + 19 (SS)• Cyclic tearing tests : 24• Tests carried out on straight pipes and elbows at
room temperature• Sizes : 8” – 16” Nominal Bore (NB)• Tests also carried out on 100 CT specimens at RT,
200-300°C• Period of tests : 1999 - 2003
15
Through wall circumferential crackBARC Fracture Tests: Crack
Configurations in Piping Components
crack
crack weld
crack
crack
Through wall circumferential crack Part through circumferential crack
Through wall circumferential crack in weld
20
0 40 80 120 1600
35
70
105
140
Expt. FEM
Crack initiation
Load
(kN
)
Displacement (mm)
Comparison of Load Deflection Curve
21
Net Section Load andExperiments
( )Circumferential Crack Angle /θ π
00.20.40.60.8
11.2
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
theoretical k = 2theoretical k = 2.48" experimental16" experimental
( )24 cos / 2 0.5sin( )l fM R tσ θ θ= −� �� � ( )u yf k
σ σσ
+=
22
BARC Fracture Tests
• Maximum load observed in pipes up to 8” NB size isnearly same as that based on NSC (using flow stress)
• Maximum load observed in pipes = 12” NB size is lessthan that based on NSC, hence J-Tearing governs thefailure.
• In pipes = 12” NB there is large margin between crackinitiation and unstable fracture.
• In all cases maximum load observed is greater than thatbased on NSC (using σy)
• The tests revealed that load carrying capacity under cyclicloads is less. It is compensated by compliance effects ofpiping system due to which moment redistribution occurs.
23
Reliability Analysis
• Estimation method• Fast Probability Integration
� FORM� SORM
• Simulation� Classical Monte Carlo Method (CMC)� Monte Carlo with
– Importance Sampling (IS)– Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS)– Conditional Expectation (CE)– Adaptive Stratified-Importance Sampling (VEGAS numerical
integration algorithm)
24
Description of Pipes
LSC has Guassian distribution with cov = 10%
85.624234.035211PDL
40456432.450280SGO
33939134.640234SGI
SSE LoadkN-m
NOC LoadkN-m
MeanLSCDeg.
Thick.(mm)
MeanRadius(mm)
PipeLine
25
Probabilistic LBB Qualification
327.624285.6PDL
968564404SGO
730391339SGI
DBA(NOC + SSE)Moment
NOCMoment
SSEMoment
Moments in kN-m
Uncertainty in SSE Moment only (Lognormal Distribution)
26
Stochastic Treatment of Load
• The distribution of induced moment is consideredas lognormal
• The SSE value as computed by piping analysis isconsidered as Mean Centered
• The SSE moment corresponds to PGA of 0.2g• The variability [aleatory and epistemic] arises in
• Piping Dynamic Response (PDR)• Building Dynamic Response (BDR)
27
Piping Dynamic ResponseVariability
• Floor Spectra• Spectral Shape – Peak Broadening• Artificial Time History – Enveloping the Design Ground spectra
• Modeling Factors in Piping analysis• Boundary Conditions, Geometry/Layout, Modeling.
• Damping Factors• Model Combination• Earthquake Component Combinations
• Vertical and Horizontal (North and South)
0.31 0.27PDR PDRaleatory epistmic δ δ= =
28
Building Structural ResponseVariability
• Ground Spectrum Shape• Damping of RCC• Modeling: Building, Floors etc.• Soil Structure Interaction
0.25 0.18BDR BDRaleatory epistmic δ δ= =
0.40 0.32aleatory epistmic δ δ= =Combining
Lognormal distribution for seismic load
29
Material PropertiesC-Mn Steel (SA333-Gr6)
4
var
240.0 282.24 113.148449.0 113.148 504.0
1.948 0.607 0.44.898 0.4 0.406
412.0 2.716 10 43.93587.330.433
y
u
ic
RandomVector MeanVeactor Co ianceMatrix
n
JCm
σσα
� � � � � �� � � � � �
� �
−� � � � � �� � � � � �− � �
× −� � � � � � � �
4
7 6.2343.937 3.105 10 8.563
6.23 8.563 0.012
� �−� �− ×� �� �−� �
σu and σy are in MPa,JIC and C are in kJ/m2
•Stress-strain curve is represented by Ramberg-Osgood fit (α, n)•J-R curve is represented by power fit equation (C, m)JR(∆a) = C(∆a)m
All are lognormally distributed
30
05
10152025
0.365
0.438
0.511
0.584
0.657
0.730
0.803
0.876
0.949
1.020
Load MN-m
Rel
iabi
lity
Inde
x
FORMISAIS
NSC Results: SGI – ConstantDBA Load
31
NSC Results: SGO -ConstantDBA Load
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.484
0.581
0.678
0.774
0.871
0.968
1.060
1.160
1.260
1.360
Load MN-m
Rel
iabi
lity
Inde
x
FORMISAIS
32
NSC Results: PDL -ConstantDBA Load
05
1015202530
0.164
0.197
0.229
0.000
0.000
0.328
0.360
0.393
0.426
0.459
Load MN-m
Rel
iabi
lity
Inde
x
FORMISAIS
33
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
0.365 0.438 0.511 0.584 0.657 0.73 0.803 0.876 0.949 1.02
Bending Moment (MN-m)
β
FORMCMCISVEGASSORMAISCE
R6 Results: SGI -Constant DBALoad
Results for high reliability index > 4could not be obtained using CMC becauseof computational limitations
34
R6 Results: SGO -Constant DBALoad
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
0.484 0.581 0.678 0.774 0.871 0.968 1.06 1.16 1.26 1.36
Bending Moment (MN-m)
β
FORMCMCISVEGASSORMAISCE
Results for high reliability index > 4could not be obtained using CMC becauseof computational limitations
35
R6 Results: PDL -Constant DBALoad
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
0.164 0.197 0.229 0.262 0.295 0.328 0.36 0.393 0.426 0.459
Bending Moment (MN-m)
β
FORMISVEGASSORMAISCE
36
Effect of Variability of FractureToughness on Reliability Index
0.002.00
4.006.00
8.0010.00
12.0014.00
16.000.
1
0.13
0.16
0.19
0.22
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.34
0.37 0.4
Coefficient of variation of weld fracture toughness
Rel
iabi
lity
Inde
x
SGI Pipe
Sitewelding
Shop floorwelding
37
Reliability Index@DBA: Comparing forDifferent Pipes-constant Applied Load
02468
1012141618
ββββ
SGISGOPDL
SGI 11.9 3.8 8.3 9.8SGO 15.7 4.3 9.3 10.9PDL 17.9 5.1 10.3 11.9
NSC R6 init. R6 rupture J-T
38
SGI NSC
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0.E+00 2.E+06 4.E+06 6.E+06 8.E+06 1.E+07Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGI: NSC-Stochastic Load
39
SGO NSC
1.E-091.E-081.E-071.E-061.E-051.E-041.E-031.E-021.E-01
1.E+00
0.0E+00 2.0E+06 4.0E+06 6.0E+06 8.0E+06 1.0E+07 1.2E+07 1.4E+07
Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGO: NSC -Stochastic Load
40
PDL NSC
1.E-101.E-091.E-081.E-071.E-061.E-051.E-041.E-031.E-021.E-01
1.E+00
0.E+00 1.E+06 2.E+06 3.E+06 4.E+06 5.E+06 6.E+06 7.E+06Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-PDL: NSC -Stochastic Load
41
SGI R6 Initiation
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0.E+00 2.E+06 4.E+06 6.E+06 8.E+06Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGI: R6(INITIATION) - Stochastic Load
42
SGO R6 Initiation
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0.E+00 2.E+06 4.E+06 6.E+06 8.E+06Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGO: R6(INITIATION) - Stochastic Load
43
PDL R6 Initiation
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0.E+00 1.E+06 2.E+06 3.E+06 4.E+06 5.E+06Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-PDL: R6(INITIATION) - Stochastic Load
44
SGI R6 Max
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0.E+00 2.E+06 4.E+06 6.E+06 8.E+06Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGI: R6 (UNSTABLECRACK GROWTH) - Stochastic Load
45
SGO R6 Max
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0.0E+00 2.0E+06 4.0E+06 6.0E+06 8.0E+06 1.0E+07 1.2E+07 1.4E+07
Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGO: R6 (UNSTABLECRACK GROWTH) - Stochastic Load
46
PDL R6 Max
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0.0E+00 1.0E+06 2.0E+06 3.0E+06 4.0E+06 5.0E+06 6.0E+06
Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-PDL: R6 (UNSTABLECRACK GROWTH) - Stochastic Load
47
SGI J-T
1.E-081.E-07
1.E-061.E-05
1.E-041.E-03
1.E-021.E-01
1.E+00
0.0E+00 2.0E+06 4.0E+06 6.0E+06 8.0E+06 1.0E+07
Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGI: J-TEARINGMETHOD - Stochastic Load
48
SGO J-T
1.E-101.E-091.E-081.E-071.E-061.E-051.E-041.E-031.E-021.E-01
1.E+00
0.0E+00 5.0E+06 1.0E+07 1.5E+07 2.0E+07
Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-SGO: J-TEARINGMETHOD - Stochastic Load
49
PDL J-T
1.E-111.E-101.E-091.E-081.E-071.E-061.E-051.E-041.E-031.E-021.E-01
1.E+00
0.0E+00 1.0E+06 2.0E+06 3.0E+06 4.0E+06 5.0E+06 6.0E+06 7.0E+06 8.0E+06
Moment N-m
Pf
5%50%95%
Fragility Analysis-PDL: J-TEARINGMETHOD - Stochastic Load
50
0
1
2
3
4
5R
elia
bilit
y In
dex
SGI 3.4 2.2 3.1 3.6SGO 4.2 2.8 3.8 4.3PDL 4.6 3.3 4.2 4.8
NSC R6 init. R6 rupture J-T
Reliability Index@DBA: Comparing forDifferent Pipes-Stochastic Applied Load
51
Calculation of Margin on Loadfor LBB
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0.E+00 1.E+06 2.E+06 3.E+06 4.E+06 5.E+06 6.E+06
Bending Moment
Pf
50 % confidence load
95 % confidence load
0.05
M1M2
LoadSSENOC2or 1
+MM
ProbabilisticLBB Margin
52
LBB Margins at Constant Load(Margin Required :ABS Load Combination=1
11.14.139.293.829.293.4210.84.15PDL
9.063.477.623.204.742.989.343.63SGO
5.642.605.652.403.422.246.602.65SGI
J-TR6 ruptureR6 init.NSC
Deterministic
Probabilistic
Margins calculated at 95% confidence moment (51% cov)with 5% probability of failure (HCLPF)
53
LBB Margins at Constant Load(margin required :ABS Load combination =1
4.894.134.123.824.123.424.914.15PDL
3.933.473.413.201.962.984.203.63SGO
2.532.602.532.401.512.243.012.65SGI
J-TR6 ruptureR6 init.NSC
Deterministic
Probabilistic
Margins calculated at 50% confidence moment (51% cov)with 1% probability of failure (HCLPF)
54
Hazard Curve for TAPP
1.E-05
1.E-03
1.E-01
1.E+01
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2
PGA g
AEP
AEP: Annual Exceedance Probability
PGA: Peak Ground Acceleration
55
Earthquake Induced Probabilityof Failure
• Probability of DEGB induced by earthquake isextremely low.
• It is consistent with the pipe tests conducted atBARC and international test experience that ifmaterial is ductile then maximum load can beapproximated by NSC formula
• Probability of crackinitiation (per year)
5.71X10-09PDL1.07X10-07SGO7.91E10-07SGI
56
Discussion on Reliability StudiesPerformed at Constant Load
• Margins required on load for LBB qualification areobtained using probabilistic analysis
• Probability of DEGB of PHT pipe with LSC under DBAload is extremely low
• Mode of failure from experiments• Pipe sizes = 8” NB : NSC• Pipe sizes > 8” NB : J-Tearing
• Probability of stable crack growth initiation is also verylow.
• The reliability calculations were done using a number ofmethods, (FORM, SORM, Monte Carlo based etc.) All ofthem gave consistent results