Problems, Policy and Political Streams

PA 5012Anders VictorWilly Boulay

Agenda

• Garbage Can Model

• Stream Discussiono Problems, policies and politics

• Supplement: 'Recycling the Garbage Can'

• Example: Drone Policyo Overviewo Three streams

Background

• Policy formation questionso How is the agenda set?o How are alternatives specified?o Why do these processes work like they do?

• Cohen, March & Olsen: Garbage Can

• Kingdon: Stream Model

The Garbage Can Model

• Organized Anarchieso Cohen, March &

Olsen: Federal government

• Outcomes: function of mix of garbage in the can and how it is processedo Heavily dependent on

coupling of streamsSource: http://www.sheilazellerinteriors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Oscar-the-Grouch-Scram.jpg

Kingdon: Three Streams

• Recognize problemso How and why do certain problems capture the

attention of the government?

• Generate proposals for policy changeo Similar to solutions stream of Garbage Can model

• Engage in political activitieso National mood, elections, shifts of Congress, interest

group campaigns

Problem Stream

• Indicatorso Powerful=measurableo Interpretation

• Focusing eventso Crisis &

accompanimento Ex: I-35W bridge

collapse

• Feedback

"Conditions become defined as problems when we come to believe that we should do something about them"

Policy Stream

• The Policy Primeval Soup

• Policy communitieso Fragmentation

• Incentives

• Policy entrepreneurso Incentives: personal interests, ideology, 'policy groupies'

• Softening up

• Survival

"There is no new thing under the sun"

Political Stream

• National mood

• Organized political forces

• Governmento Turnover, jurisdiction

• Consensus building

"Important promoter or inhibitor of high agenda status"

'Recycling the Garbage Can'

"Formalization often helps science progress, but it is not a panacea. In this case a heavy price was paid, for the verbal theory and the computer model do not represent the same phenomena at all. Decision makers in the verbal theory confront a chaotic world in which they, solutions, and problems dance around one another, meeting by chance in choice arenas.

But in the simulation, packs of decision makers-and often problems as well-march in lockstep from arena to arena. And solutions never move at all. This

is ironic. The informal theory of the garbage can is famous for depicting a world that is much more complex than that described by classical theories of organizational choice. The latter's tidy image of goal specification, alternative generation, evaluation, and choice is replaced by a complex swirl of problems looking for solutions, solutions looking for problems, participants wandering around looking for work, and all three searching for choice opportunities. Yet, the simulation depicts almost none of this and in fact creates

a world of remarkable order."

Recycling the Garbage Can: An Assessment of the Research Program. Jonathan Bendor; Terry M. Moe; Kenneth W. Shotts. The American Political Science Review, Vol. 95, No. 1. (Mar., 2001), pp. 169-190.

Example: Drone Policy

Source:

http://dronewarsuk.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/predator-firing-missile4.jpg?w=300&h=225

Source: http://www.neotrouve.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/mosquito-drone-mock-up-150x150.jpg

Current State of Drone Policy in U.S.

• No publically released current drone use policy by the federal government

• Confirmed use of drone technology by United States Air Force and Central Intelligence Agency in multiple conflict areas

• Unconfirmed usage by domestic law enforcement agencies for surveillance of citizenry

Drone Policy Issues

• Oversight gaps

• Transparency

• Ethical, legal, and societal implications of use

• Advanced development and expanded use

• Simply put: there is no concrete policy

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Binoculars_25x100.jpg/800px-Binoculars_25x100.jpg

Capturing Attention and the Problem Stream

"Fairly often, problems come to the attention of governmental decision makers...because some more or less systematic indicator simply shows that there is a problem out there." Kingdon, p. 90

• Indicators (must be pervasive, necessary, and powerful)

• Focusing events

• Defining the drone problem

The Drone Policy Stream

• Fragmented Congressional community continually shifts the agenda

• Rand Paul's 13 hour filibuster

• The role of values and technical feasibility

• The short list of alternatives

Source: http://media.cagle.com/91/2013/03/08/128382_600.jpg

Powers that be: The Political Stream

"Flowing along independently of the problems and policy streams is the political stream, composed of such things as public mood, pressure group campaigns, election results, partisan or ideological distributions in Congress, and changes of administration." Kingdon, p. 145

• National mood: Washington Post poll shows 79% approval for Rand Paul's stance on limiting domestic use of drones

• Turnover of Congress

• Jurisdiction: The struggle for control

• Tipping point

Questions

• Considering what we've learned about the three political streams, what is the outlook for the development of a concrete drone policy?

• Relating the Garbage Can model to drone policy, what streams are most likely to form couplings? Will these initial couplings serve to inhibit progress on the issue or encourage it?