Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Non-renewable Energy Source: Fossil Fuels Source: BP Statistical...

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012

Non-renewable Energy Source: Fossil Fuels

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008

Fossil Fuel Type

Reserves–to-production (R/P) ratio gives the number of years the remaining reserves (most

optimistic estimates) would last if production were to continue at

the 2007 (2010) levelOil 41.6 (46.2) years

Natural Gas 60.3 (58.6) yearsCoal 133 (118) years


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year

Total emissions

Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2):

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html


Fossil-fuel

burning 5.3

Land use

0.6 – 2.6

Photosynthesis 100-120

Plant respiration 40 - 50

Decay of residues 50 - 60

Sea-surface gas

exchange100 - 115

Net ocean uptake

1.6 – 2.4

Numbers are billions of tons of carbon

Geological reservoir

Global Carbon Cycle


275

300

325

350

375

400

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

(in ppmv)

Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Concentrations

385.3 ppmv in 2008

275 ppmv in pre-industrial time


Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including CO2

GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit

radiation within the thermal infrared range.

This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#cite_note-0


The Greenhouse effectA T M O S P H E R E

S U N


The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,

nitrous oxide, and ozone.

Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present.


Rise in the concentration of four GHGs


Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs


The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth.

Global Warming


Global temperature anomalies from land meteorological stations (in deg C)

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html

Base period


Global temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations (in deg C)

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html

Base period

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html

Hemispheric annual temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

Base period


Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2oC during the past 100 centuries.

The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005).

Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change.


Consequences…………



Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/

• Loss of land: Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the islands.• Food and water shortage: Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. • The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015.

World’s first environmental (3000) refugees from Carteret (6) Islands, Papua New Guinea. (a documentary named “Sun come up” has been made on the topic)


• death of coral reefs• fewer cubs for polar bears

• spread of dengue and other diseases

• heavy rains & severe draughts

• fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes

• changed rainfall patterns

• warming and aridity

• loss of biodiversity



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Rate of increase of CO2 concentration (in ppmv/year)

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013 and http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html

1.8 ppmv/year in 2008


350

375

400

425

450

475

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

actual valueat 1.5 ppmv/yearat 2.0 ppmv/yearat 2.5 ppmv/year

CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)

global temperaturemay be up by 2oC


-Accelerated Climate Change-Mass extinctions-Ecosystems breakdowns-Large scale discontinuities

At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global temperature would go up by 2oC (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF).


Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2.

It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value),

which we may reach not.


350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100Year

actual valueat 1.5 ppmv/yearat 2.0 ppmv/yearat 2.5 ppmv/year

We are lucky. Are we?

CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)


Discussion Point:

Should we place a limit on the global CO2 emissions to ensure sustainable development?


Sustainable Limit Calculations


Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:

1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996).

Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9


2. Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions.

That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents per person per year,

which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO2 equivalents per person per year.

Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

HDI (defined on next page)2005

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

per c

apita

200

4 (to

nnes

of C

equ

ival

ent)

Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm

USA

Sri LankaSustainable limit


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

HDI (defined on next page)2005

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

per c

apita

200

4 (to

nnes

of C

equ

ival

ent)


USA

Sri LankaSustainable limit

NorwaySingapore

Japan

Iceland


UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI)

HDI = LI3

+ EI3

+ GDPI3

LI (Life Index) = Life Expectancy - 25

85 - 25

GDPI (GDP Index) =ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100)

ln(40000) - ln(100)

EI (Education Index) = 2 Adult Literacy3 100

1 School Enrollment3 100

+


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

HDI 2005

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

per c

apita

200

4 (to

nnes

of C

equ

ival

ent)


Sustainable limit

HDI > 0.8Unsustainable amount of per capita CO2 emissions

are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9)

USA

Sri Lanka


Discussion Point:

How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit?


Emissions Reduction Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs).

Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.


The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming.

How long does it take to grow a tree like this?


Emissions Reduction Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources

What are they?Nuclear HydroRenewables (Geothermal, Solar,

Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Fossil fuelsHydroelectric PowerNuclear Electric PowerElectric Power from Renewables

World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear Electric Power

Electric Power from Renewables

World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls


There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profit-oriented energy markets.


More people

More pollution

Emissions Reduction Option 3: Reduce Population


If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power

If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power

Electricity use in 2006


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

CO2 (metrictons per capita)

Population GDP percapita, PPP(const 2005

International $)

Low income

Lower middleincome

Upper middleincome

High income

in 2005


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

CO2 (metrictons per capita)

Population GDP percapita, PPP(const 2005

International $)

Low income

Lower middleincome

Upper middleincome

High income

in 2005


CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population.


Emissions Reduction Option 4: Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

depleted oil and gas reservoirenhanced

recoverysaline formation

Unminable coal beds

terrestrial sequestration

power station CO2 capture and separation

ocean sequestration


CCS at Weyburn-Midale CO2 Project:

CO2 emitted from the coal gasification plant in North Dakota (USA) is captured (rather than vented to the atmosphere).

It is then liquefied by compression and pipelined 320 km north to the depleted oilfields in Saskatchewan (Canada).

CO2 so transported is used to enhance oil recovery (225 m3 of CO2 to get an extra barrel of oil) from depleted oil fields.

It is then separated and re-injected into the depleted oilfields for long time storage.

The project was launched in 2000, and the 1st phase has been completed successfully.

CCS is controversial since permanent storage of CO2 underground is not guaranteed


CCS in the oceans: inject CO2 by ship or pipeline into the water column at

depths of 1 km or more, and the CO2 subsequently dissolves.

deposit CO2 directly onto the sea floor at depths greater than 3 km, where CO2 is denser than water and is expected to form a 'lake' that would delay dissolution of CO2 into the environment.

convert the CO2 to bicarbonates (using limestone)

store the CO2 in solid clathrate hydrates already existing on the ocean floor, or grow more solid clathrate.


Controversial since the impacts on marine ecosystem (which is very fragile) are not known

Capture

Dissolution type

Dissolution type

Lake type

Fixed pipelines Moving ships Platform

3 km


For energy (electricity and heat), we depend heavily on the combustion of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas.

Fossil fuels burning is responsible for about 85% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions produced annually, and therefore the major cause for global warming. It also create NOx and SOx pollution.

Fossil fuels are non-renewable sources of energy and is expected to be used up within a century from now.

Fossil fuel is not a sustainable energy source.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Source: www.cartoonstock.com/directory/f/fossil_fuel.asp


The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus:

“You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs tothe Immortals.”

– Roger Lancelyn GreenTales of the Greek Heroes

Puffin Classics

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