Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Co-Director, Carbon Mitigation Initiative

Robert Socolow – Princeton University

Putting CO2 Capture and Sequestration into First Gear

Robert Socolow

Princeton University

socolow@princeton.edu

February 14th, 2008 

Earth Institute, Columbia University Global Task Force on Carbon Capture and Storage

Outline of talk1.A wedge of CCS is an immense undertaking.

2.CCS is ready for full-scale deployment and on-the-job learning (both policy and technology)

3.CCS deployment is urgently needed in the developing world.

4.Conundrum: Given the capital cost crunch, the sunk cost in existing plants, and the seduction of natural gas, is CCS-coal really imminent in the U.S.? Might CCS with coal-for-fuel arrive before CCS with coal-for-power?

6

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Current p

ath =

“ram

p”

Flat path

0

30

60

1950 2000 2050 2100

Stabilization Wedges

60 GtCO2/yr ≈ 16 GtC/yr

Eight “wedges”

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 4 tCO2/yr.

Historical emissions

Interim Goal

What is a “Wedge”?A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 4 GtCO2/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

4 GtCO2/yr

50 years

Total = 100 Gigatons CO2

Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 100 GtCO2 in its first 50 years. This is three trillion dollars at $30/tCO2.

A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) at 800 1000-MW coal power plants.

CCS at “coal-to-liquids” plants producing 30 million barrels per day.

Coal with Carbon Capture and StorageCoal with Carbon Capture and Storage

Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA

The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant

Shown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm3) of CO2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km2 in each of two formations.

Assumptions:•10% porosity•1/3 of pore space accessed•60 m total vertical height for the two formations.

•Note: Plant is still young.

Note: Injection rate is 150,000 bbl(CO2)/day, 3 billion barrels over 60 years.

A 1000 MW coal plant with CCS requires lifetime storage of 3x109 barrels of CO2

CO2 emissions rate: 6 MtCO2/yr = 150,000 bbl/day.Assume: 1) 9 barrels CO2/t, and 2) extra coal for CCS balances less than 100% CO2 capture.

For 60-year plant lifetime: 3 billion barrels.

World’s oil fields larger than 3 billion barrels*: 80.

Percent of total production from these 80 fields: 40%.

This is familiar territory for the oil industry.

* Including water reinjection, fluid flow in and out of a 500 million barrels (Mbbl) field may be 3000 Mbbl. 500 fields are > 500 (Mbbl) and account for 2/3 of global production.

$30/tCO2 ≈ 2¢/kWh induces CCS. Three views.

CCS

Wholesale power w/o CCS: 4 ¢/kWh

Transmission and distribution

A coal-gasification power plant can capture CO2 for an added 2¢/kWh ($30/tCO2). This:

triples the price of delivered coal;

adds 50% to the busbar price of electricity from coal;

adds 20% to the household price of electricity from coal.

Coal at the power plant

2

6

3

1

} 6

Retail power w/o CCS: 10 ¢/kWh

Plant capital

Readiness: CCS capabilities today

Technologies for both capture and storage exist at scale. Linking them will get us started.

Market niches exist:

•where CO2 is cheap to capture (natural gas separation plants, hydrogen plants for ammonia and refineries)

•where CO2 is worth paying a lot for (Enhanced Oil Recovery, or EOR)

Regulation is already developed for fluids injected below ground: for natural gas seasonal storage, EOR, hazardous waste disposal, and municipal waste disposal.

Already, in the middle of the Sahara!

At In Salah, Algeria, natural gas purification by CO2 removal plus CO2 pressurization for nearby injection

Separation at amine contactor towers

A 500-mile CO2 pipeline built in the 1980s

Two conclusions:

1. CO2 in the right place is valuable.

2. CO2 from McElmo was a better source than CO2 from any local power plant.

McElmo Dome: A huge natural CO2 reservoirIn place: 1500 MtCO2

Production: 15-20 MtCO2/yr

Connects McElmo Dome, Colorado, to Permian Basin, west Texas. CO2 is for enhanced oil recovery

Rule of thumb: 2 to 5 bbl incremental oil per tCO2 injected.

The developing world is expecting a huge expansion of coal power

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, Reference scenario.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2005 2030 2005 2030

Mto

e

TEOther OECDEU27JapanUSOther DCIndiaChina

Power generation Other

Coa

l in

put

Global CO2 emissions from coal: 11 GtCO2 in 2005, 19 GtCO2 in 2030.

CO2 emission commitments from new power plants

Historic emissions, all uses

2003-2030 power-plant lifetime CO2 commitments Source: IEA, WEO 2004, Reference scenario.Assumed lifetime: coal 60 yr, gas 40 yr, oil 20 yr.

Policy priority: Deter investments in new long-lived high-carbon stock

Needed: “Commitment accounting.”Credit for comparison: David Hawkins, NRDC

100 GtCO2 not emitted = 1 wedge

1400 GW new coal plants

How can we redirect the expected $22 trillion global investment in energy supply, 2006-2030?

Gas19%

Coal3%

Electricity53%Oil

24%

Biofuels1%

Power generation

51%

49%

OtherRefining

73%

22%5%

Exploration and development

LNG chainTransmission and

distribution

55%

37%

8%

Mining

Shipping and ports10%

90%

$5.4 trillion

$11.6 trillion

$4.2 trillion$0.6 trillion

Exploration and development

Transmission and distribution

Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $2006)

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, Reference scenario.

China has installed SO2 scrubbers at an astounding rate since 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*

Cu

mu

lati

ve I

nsta

lled

FG

D C

ap

acit

y (

GW

e) Total SO2 Scrubber

Wet Scrubber

256 GWe

215 GWe

121 GWe

105 GWe

U.S.

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1975 80 1985 90 1995 00 2005 2010

100 GW

100 GW Slope:100 GW/yr

Source: EIA

Capacity, total by source

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

year of initial operation

meg

awat

t

Other

Renewables

Water

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

U.S. Power Plant Capacity, by Vintage

300 GW of existing coal plants. Options: RetirementRebuild, i.e., “scrap-and-build”End-of-pipe CO2 capture

(vs. SOx-NOx Clear Skies lock-in)

If we push hard on end-use efficiency, will our current fleet suffice for >20 yrs?

Efficient Use of ElectricityEfficient Use of Electricity

lightingmotors cogeneration

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

.25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings

Target: Commercial and multifamily buildings.

Coal-based Synfuels with CCS* *Carbon capture and storage

Coal-based Synfuels with CCS* *Carbon capture and storage

Effort needed for 1 wedge by 2055

Capture and storage of the CO2 byproduct at plants producing 30 million barrels per day of coal-based synfuels

Assumption: half of C originally in the coal is available for capture, half goes into synfuels.

Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy

Result: Coal-based synfuels have no worse CO2 emissions than petroleum fuels, instead of doubled emissions.

Will the oil market lead to CCS with coal synfuels before CCS with coal power?

Further Considerations

• Carbon policy must assure that natural gas carbon emissions are priced.

• Regional CO2 pipeline systems are required, with trunks and branches. Future coal plant locations will be affected by available CO2 destinations.

• The co-sequestration option (putting sulfur underground) is clever, but is it workable?

• Storage pore space is another mineral reserve: the more you use, the more you have.

• Never forget public acceptance!

Avoid Mitigation Lite

Mitigation Lite: The right words but the wrong numbers. Companies’ investments are unchanged: the emissions price is a cost of business. Individuals change few practices.

For specificity, consider a price ramp that is not “lite,” one rising from zero to $30/tCO2 over 10 years.

0 5 10Year of policy

$30/tCO2

CO2 emissions price

Benchmark: $30/tCO2

Form of Energy Equivalent to $30/tCO2 (≈ $100/tC)

Natural gas $1.60/1000 scf

Crude oil $13/barrel

Coal $70/U.S. ton

Gasoline 25¢/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 50¢/gallon)

Electricity from coal 2.4¢/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.8 ¢/kWh)

Electricity from natural gas 1.1¢/kWh

Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $30/tCO2 can enable scale-up of most of the wedges, if supplemented with sectoral policy to facilitate transition.

$30/tCO2 is the current European Trading System price for 2008 emissions.At this price, current global emissions (30 GtCO2/yr) cost $900 billion/yr, 2% of GWP.

Some Carbon Policy Principles

• Establish a CO2 price schedule forceful enough to drive investment decisions.

• Make the price salient as far upstream as possible (best, when C comes out of the ground or across a border).

• Supplement the price with sectoral policies (RPS, CCS, CAFE, appliance mandates).

• Stimulate international coordination.• Allow a teething period.

Summing Up

If coal is as central to global development as it now appears to be, an immense amount of CCS will be deployed.

The U.S. can deploy full-scale projects now. The best reason for doing so is to leverage investments outside the U.S.

Domestic deployment requires enticements to overcome high capital costs, first-mover costs, and the seduction of natural gas. Clear Skies needs to be overhauled to encourage CCS at existing plants.

Success at aggressive end-use electricity efficiency increases the enticements required.

Extra Slides

Energy Efficiency

Decarbonized Electricity

Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity

Extra Carbon in Forests, Soils, Oceans

DecarbonizedFuels

2007 2057

30 GtCO2/yr

60 GtCO2/yr

MethaneManagement

TriangleStabilization

Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges in six broad categories

U.S. Wedges

Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57

“The Wedge Model is the IPOD of climate change: You fill it with your favorite things.”

David Hawkins, NRDC, 2007.

Therefore, prepare to negotiate with others, who have different favorite things.

Efficient Use of FuelEfficient Use of Fuel

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 4 tons of CO2.

2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.

2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.

Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl

Video-conferencing

Activity Amount producing 4tCO2/yr (1tC/yr) emissions

a) Drive 10,000 miles/yr, 30 miles per gallon

b) Fly 10,000 miles/yr

c) Heat home Natural gas, average house, average climate

d) Use lights and appliances

300 kWh/month when all coal-power

(600 kWh/month, natural-gas-power)

Four ways to emit 4 tonCO2/yr

Two sets of measurements of the porosity at the 20-m-thick Krechba field in the Algerian desert, near a CO2 injection well (thin tubing):

Coarse mapping by seismic echolocation soundings. Red and yellow represent high porosity regions; blue indicates low porosity areas.

Finer depiction of porosity (looking like colored beads), within a few centimeters of the well, by a down-hole electric sensor probe. Fine-scale is used fo steering the drilling apparatus toward regions of high porosity.

Smart CO2 injection

Field and Lab Studies of CO2 Effects on Cement

Samples of unreacted H-type cement (left) and cement after 3 weeks in flow-through reactor at 50ºC and pH 2.4 (right). Color variation is due to changes in oxidation in iron impurities.

Cement recovered with sidewall corer from a 19 year-old oil well at RMOTC in Wyoming. Cement adhered to outside casing at 933.3 m at a band of dense limestone. Scanning electron microscopy on sample and original cement materials reveal post-injection calcium leaching.

Source: George Scherer, Princeton University.

How long will CO2 stay underground and how long is long enough?

How nearly permanent should storage be? “Environmental ethics and traditional economics give different answers. Following a strict environmental ethic that seeks to minimize the impact of today’s activities on future generations, authorities might, for instance, refuse to certify a storage project estimated to retain CO2 for only 200 years. Guided instead by traditional economics, they might approve the same project on the grounds that two centuries from now a smarter world will have invented superior carbon disposal technology.” RHS, Scientific American, July 2005, p. 55.

Large unconfined aquifers: abundant, 1000 year retention.This realization, reported in 1996 by Sam Holloway, British Geological Survey for Joule II, revolutionized the world’s perspective on CCS.

Oil/gas reservoirs: rare, 1,000,000 year retention.

A sequence of CCS opportunitiesCAPTURE STORAGE

Near-term (0-5 years) Concentrated CO2 streams:

1) natural gas separation;

2) hydrogen for refineries, chemicals (NH3, urea)

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR)

Mid-term (5-15 years) Coal, petcoke, and natural gas power plants

Biomass power plants?

Coal-to-synfuels plants?

Aquifer storage

Long-term (at least 15 years)

Coal-to-H2 for distributed H2

Direct capture from the air?

Mineral storage?

Ocean storage?

Deep sub-ocean storage?

“No CTL without CCS”

1. Climate-change concerns will dominate the future of coal.

2. Key question is whether coal-to-liquids (CTL) option is competitive in a carbon-constrained world.

3. Incremental costs of CO2 capture and storage (CCS), relative to costs with CO2 venting, are likely to be lower at CTL plants than at coal power plants.

4. Competitiveness of CTL with CCS, vs. many other options, is uncertain:

a. CCS costs will come down with experience, but

b. CCS costs could rise if public distrust inhibits CO2 storage.

5. Policy recommendation: CTL, starting with the first pilots, should proceed only with CCS.

Inaugural meeting

February 14, 2008

Global Task Force on Carbon Capture and Sequestration