Program

2 TUESDAY, 9 OCTOBER 2018

16th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean RisksMontpellier| France| 9–11 October 2018

Welcome and opening talks

Room: Rabelais

Chairperson: Yves Tramblay

08:30–09:30: Welcome coffee

09:30–10:30: Opening talks

PL2 Floods and flash floods modelling and forecasting

Conveners: Braud, Isabelle; Borga, Marco; Vincendon, Béatrice Room: Rabelais

Chairperson: Isabelle Braud

Processes and modeling of floods and flash floods

10:30–11:00: Plinius16-60Hydrometeorological processes and characteristics of flash floods in arid climate (solicited) Morin, Efrat; Belachsen, Idit; Zocatelli, Davide; Marra, Francesco; Armon, Moshe

11:00–11:15: Plinius16-34The forgetted role of groundwaters on flash flood understanding and modelling in Mediterranean karstic catchments – the example of the Gapeau river (South France) Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Goulet, Laurent; Narbaïs, Didier; Desprats, Jean-François

11:15–11:30: Plinius16-44Impacts of the resolution of initial soil moisture conditions for flash flood modeling in the Mediterranean region Eeckman, Judith; Vincendon, Béatrice; Lovat, Alexane; Ducrocq, Veronique

11:30–11:45: Plinius16-8Determinants of modeling choices for Mediterranean floods Cheviron, Bruno; Moussa, Roger

11:45–12:00: Plinius16-20Modelling floods in urban areas using spatially distributed hydrological models: A case study on the Oued Fez catchment Bouizrou, Ismail; Chahinian, Nanée; Rais, Naoual; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Müller, Remy

12:00–12:15: Plinius16-1Quantifying uncertainties in hydrological models applied on Lebanese Mediterranean catchments Andraos, Cynthia; Najem, Wajdi

12:15–12:30: Plinius16-71Integrating hydrological modelling, post-event surveys and morphometric analyses for flash flood investigation Crema, Stefano; Marra, Francesco; Andreoli, Andrea; Scorpio, Vittoria; Kofler, Christian; Cavalli, Marco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Borga, Marco; Comiti, Francesco 12:30 Lunch break

Chairperson: Marco Borga

Floods and flash flood forecasting and mapping

14:00–14:30: Plinius16-61The ANYWHERE operational flash flood early warning system based on meteorological radars and flood risk maps. Comparison with a continuous distributed hydrological model in the flash flood cases of autumn 2014 in Liguria (Italy) (solicited) Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Berenguer, Marc; Poletti, Maria Laura; Silvestro, Francesco; Rebora, Nicola

14:30–14:45: Plinius16-23Flood modelling and forecasting in the High-Atlas of Morocco El Khalki, El Mahdi; Tramblay, Yves; Saidi, Mohammed El Mehdi; Alaouri, Meriem

14:45–15:00: Plinius16-24Geomorphic response to flash flood in torrential basin-fan systems in Campania (South Italy) Forte, Giovanni; De Falco, Melania; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

15:00–15:15: Plinius16-25Modeling flood occourrences: test and validation of two hydrological stress indices over Italy Lombardi, Annalina; Tomassetti, Barbara; Colaiuda, Valentina; Verdecchia, Marco

15:15–15:30: Plinius16-42Hydrological nowcasting: application and comparison of two probabilistic nowcasting technique Poletti, Maria Laura; Berenguer, Marc; Corral, Carles; Silvestro, Francesco; Rebora, Nicola; Sempere-Torres, Daniel

15:30 Coffee break & PL2 posters

Chairperson: Marco Borga

16:00–16:15: Plinius16-38Achievements and challenges for flash flood warnings: the French experience with the Vigicrues Flash system and the AIGA method Javelle, Pierre; Arnaud, Patrick; Demargne, Julie; Fine, Jean-Alain; Fouchier, Catherine; Garandeau, Lea; Janet, Bruno; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Organde, Didier; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Tolsa, Mathieu

16:15–16:30: Plinius16-3Impact of an extreme event on flood frequency analysis. Case of the Tensift watershed (Morocco) Saidi, Mohammed El Mehdi; Tramblay, Yves; Bennani, Oumaima; El Khalki, El Mahdi

TUESDAY, 9 OCTOBER 2018 3

16th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean RisksMontpellier| France| 9–11 October 2018

PL2 posters

Poster area: Main hallAttendance time: 15:30–16:00

P5: Plinius16-6A decision support system to calculate design flood peaks. Study area: Tensift Basin in Morocco Ahattab, Jihane; Serhir, Najat

P6: Plinius16-11Assessment of catchments’ potential for extreme floods: a physically-based analytical tool Hennig, Lisa; Basso, Stefano

P7: Plinius16-13Spatialization of flood indicators on Mediterranean catchments (Southern France) - Implication for prediction Le Mesnil, Martin; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Moussa, Roger; Caballero, Yvan; Dörfliger, Nathalie

P8: Plinius16-37Nowcasting hydrological chain: how to extend the forecast horizon? Poletti, Maria Laura; Silvestro, Francesco; Davolio, Silvio; Pignone, Flavio; Rebora, Nicola

P9: Plinius16-67Analysis of the 12 September 2015 flash flood in Lodève (France): influence of karsts on flood characteristics Brunet, Pascal

P10: Plinius16-78Taking profit of statistical modelling by neural networks: how to deal with vigilance levels prediction for flash flooding. Case study on Lez Basin (Southeastern France) Darras, Thomas; Johannet, Anne; Pistre, Séverin

PL6 Forecasting of Mediterranean Storms: optimization of information content, dissemination to the public, acceptance and response

Room: Rabelais

Chairpersons: Gregory Tripoli, Alix Roumagnac

16:30–17:00: Plinius16-87Evolution of flood forecasting in France (solicited) Hoffman, Joël

17:00–17:15: Plinius16-47Estimation and communication of flood forecasting uncertainties: what is going on in France? Berthet, Lionel; Gaume, Eric; Piotte, Olivier

17:15–17:30: Plinius16-10Return of experience (ROE) on operational Early Warning System (EWS) applied to Mediterranean events Chave, Sylvain; Ferry, Guillaume

17:30–17:45: Plinius16-84Flood vulnerability diagnosis as an opportunity for improving flood risk culture Haziza, Emma

17:45–18:00: Plinius16-73Meteorological conditions conducive to the rapid spread of the deadly wildfire in eastern Attica, GreeceKotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Giannaros, Theodore; Davis, Stavros

18:00–18:15: Plinius16-80Relationship between severe weather and diurnal cycle and seasonality in Catalonia: the generation of warnings for civil protection Rigo, Tomeu

4 WEDNESDAY,10 OCTOBER 2018

16th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean RisksMontpellier| France| 9–11 October 2018

PL1 Heavy rainfall: dynamical and statistical modelling, climate change impacts

Room: Rabelais Chairperson: Jose Luis Palau

09:00–09:30: Plinius16-83The paradox of the Mediterranean water cycle: a review from a climate perspective (solicited) Drobinski, Philippe

09:30–10:00: Plinius16-77Modelling heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean (solicited) Horvath, Kristian

10:00–10:15: Plinius16-28Synoptic-scale control over heavy rainfall and flash floods in the drylands of the Eastern Mediterranean Armon, Moshe; Dente, Elad; Smith, James, A.; Enzel, Yehouda; Morin, Efrat

10:15–10:30: Plinius16-9Climatological analysis of extreme precipitation in five European countries: Results from the TRIBUTE project Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Gratsea, Myrto; Tenentes, Vasilis; Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Kiranoudis, Chris T.

10:30 Coffee break & PL1 posters

Chairperson: Samiro Khodayar

11:00–11:15: Plinius16-66Climate change impacts on precipitation, soil moisture and floods over a mediterranean catchment Colmet-Daage, Antoine; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Ricci, Sophie; Borrell-Estupina, Valérie; Llovel, Cécile; Servat, Eric

11:15–11:30: Plinius16-36Assessment of the future effects of temperature and precipitation regimes over Europe using a combination of downscaling approaches and quantitative impact models Cardell, Maria Francisca; Amengual, Arnau; Romero,Romualdo

11:30–11:45: Plinius16-21Interpolation approaches based on auxiliary data to extend climatic series in space and in time for water stress retrieval in central Tunisia Farhani, Nesrine; Carreau, Julie; Boulet, Gilles; Kassouk, Zined; Mougenot, Bernard; Le Page, Michel; Lili Chabaane, Zohra; Zitouna, Rim

11:45–12:00: Plinius16-55Evaluation of gridded precipitation products on a semi-arid region Feki, Haifa; Tramblay, Yves; Carreau, Julie; Filipucci, Paolo; Brocca, Luca; Fathalli, Bilel

12:00–12:15: Plinius16-33Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Concentration over the Mediterranean according to two different indices Mathbout, Shifa; Lopez Bustins, Joan Albert; Royé, Dominic; Martín -Vide, Javier

12:15–12:30: Plinius16-35A scale-invariant extreme value model of rainfall Intensity-Duration-Area-Frequency relationships in the Cévennes-Vivarais region Mélèse, Victor; Blanchet, Juliette

12:30 Lunch break

PL1 posters

Poster area: Main hall Attendance time: 10:30–11:00

P1: Plinius16-4Analysis of instant rainfall in the Bouregreg and Chaouia regions of Morocco Barkouki, Khalid; Kacimi, Ilias; Serhir, Najat; Ezzahoum, Aimane

P2: Plinius16-22Precipitations changes in the central and eastern region of Algeria towards the end of 21th century Chourghal, Nacira; Lhomme, Jean-paul; Huard, Frederic

P3: Plinius16-19Climate change and new atmospheric circulation causing extreme precipitation and floods in Western Mediterranean: the case of Morocco Karrouk, Mohammed-Said

P4: Plinius16-32Building a stochastic rainfall generator model with Self-Organizing Maps Remi, Meynadier; Rakotoarimanga, Hugo; Deroche, Madeleine-Sophie

PL3 Societal impacts of Mediterranean storms and integrated approaches

Room: Rabelais

Chairpersons: Maria Carmen Llasat, Freddy Vinet, Katerina Papagiannaki

14:00–14:30: Plinius16-57Validation of an integrated flash-flood impacts modeling chain based on insurance claim data (solicited) Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Moncoulon, David; Pons, Frédéric

14:30–14:45: Plinius16-12Contribution to the elaboration of the concept of gravity index on Mediterranean area Chave, Sylvain; Ferry, Guillaume

WEDNESDAY, 10 OCTOBER 2018 5

16th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean RisksMontpellier| France| 9–11 October 2018

14:45–15:00: Plinius16-41Socioeconomical impact of flood events in Spanish Mediterranean basins Cortès, Maria; Turco, Marco; Llasat, Montserrat; Rosselló, Joan; Llasat, Maria Carmen

15:00–15:15: Plinius16-45Estimating people’s vulnerability to floods: the evil model Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale; Biondi, Daniela; Cruscomagno, Francesco; De Luca, Davide L.; Galasso, Luciano

15:15 Coffee break & PL3 posters

Chairperson: Maria Carmen Llasat, Freddy Vinet, Katerina Papagiannaki

16:00–16:30: Plinius16-56Available databases on the impact of Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Mediterranean regions (solicited) Petrucci, Olga; Aceto, Luigi; Pasqua, Angela Aurora

16:30–16:45: Plinius16-46Integrated physical approach for the study of the effects of heavy rain on the mudflow Capparelli, Giovanna; Spolverino, Gennaro; Versace, Pasquale

16:45–17:00: Plinius16-48Magnitude and impacts of flash floods around the Mediterranean Sea Gaume, Eric; Borga, Marco; Llassat, Maria Carmen; Maouche, Said; Lang, Michel; Diakakis, Michalis

17:00–17:15: Plinius16-49Evaluation of weather-related indicators in the prediction of wildfire risk in a Mediterranean region, in the frame of DISARM project Papagiannaki, Katerina; Giannaros, Theodoros; Lagouvardos, Kostas; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Bezes, Antonis; Karagiannidis, Athanasios

17:15–17:30: Plinius16-54A flood-related mortality index in the Mediterranean countries Vinet, Freddy; Petrucci, olga; papagiannaki, Katarina; LLasat, Carmen; kotroni, vassiliki; Boissier, Laurent; aceto, luigi; Grimalt, Miquel; llasat-Botija, Montserrat; pasqua, angela aurora; Rosselo, Juan

17:30–17:45: Plinius16-69Evolution of the Coastal Risks: a very long time perspective in Languedoc region Devillers, Benoit; Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Tavenne, Léa

17:45–18:00: Plinius16-75The U.S. and Hurricanes–the true societal impacts Durden, Susan; Sarahan, Michael

PL3 posters

Poster area: Main hall Attendance time: 15:15–16:00

P11: Plinius16-27Integrated Disaster Management system based on geographical information and mobile communication networks Tansi, Carlo; D’Angelo, Luigi; Maletta, Roberta;Maraniello, Mariano; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Perrotta, Piero; Petrucci, Olga; Versace, Pasquale

P12: Plinius16-79Using citizen science for improving a database of severe weather in Catalonia Farnell, Carme; Rigo, Tomeu

6 THURSDAY,11 OCTOBER 2018

16th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean RisksMontpellier| France| 9–11 October 2018

PL5 Mediterranean storms: diagnostic, meteorological modelling and forecasting

Room: Rabelais

Chairpersons: Vassiliki Kotroni & Silvio Davolio

09:00–09:30: Plinius16-16Barrier winds in the Italian area: synoptic climatology, dynamics and meteorological impact (solicited) Buzzi, Andrea

09:30–09:45: Plinius16-30The breeding method for ensemble forecasting: application to Western Mediterranean Hermoso, Alejandro; Homar, Victor

09:45–10:00: Plinius16-2The second AROME-WMED reanalysis of HyMeX SOP1 Nuret, Mathieu

10:00–10:15: Plinius16-7The Role of the Mediterranean Cyclones on Dust Storms in Southwest of Iran Akbary, Mehry

10:15–10:30: Plinius16-17TRAM: A New Nonhydrostatic Fully Compressible Numerical Model Romero, Romualdo

10:30 Coffee break & PL5 posters

Room: Rabelais

Chairpersons: Silvio Davolio & Romualdo Romero

11:00–11:15: Plinius16-26Can we predict changes in the trajectories of thunderstorms bearing severe-weather? del Moral, Anna; Rigo, Tomeu; Llasat, Maria Carmen

11:15–11:30: Plinius16-50A High-Resolution Ensemble Data Assimilation System (EnKF): Impact of RS-AMVs observations over complex orography and large data-avoid regions in the Western Mediterranean. Carrió Carrió, Diego Saúl; Homar, Víctor; Wicker, Louis

11:30–11:45: Plinius16-51Assessing the impact of improved lateral and boundary conditions resolution on high impact weather events reproduction in a Mediterranean domain with WRF and MOLOCH models Furnari, Luca; Davolio, Silvio; Senatore, Alfonso;Mendicino, Giuseppe

11:45–12:00: Plinius16-74Characterization of French heavy precipitating events systematic rainfall error patterns and link with typical synoptic environments with a 30 years ensemble hindcast dataset Ponzano, Matteo; Joly, Bruno; Arbogast, Philippe; Descamps, Laurent

12:00–12:15: Plinius16-40Performance Assessment of two Land Surface Models in WRF during Convective Summer Storms over the Túria River Basin (Eastern Spain) Benetó-Vallés, Pau; Palau, Jose Luis; Pastor, Francisco

12:15–12:30: Plinius16-65Advances in the understanding of heavy precipitation in the western Mediterranean region Khodayar, Samiro; Caldas-Alvarez, Alberto; Helgert, Sebastian

12:30–12:45: Plinius16-82Mesoscale convective systems producing severe weather in Catalonia Rigo, Tomeu; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Farnell, Carme; Del Moral, Anna

12:45 Lunch break

PL5 posters

Poster area: Main hall Attendance time: 10:30–11:00

P18: Plinius16-31Forecast sensitivity analysis of the November 7th 2014 medicane Maimó, Aina; Homar, Víctor

P19: Plinius16-59Use of a meso-scale disdrometer network to evaluate radar rainfall estimation errors caused by Z-R relationship variability Boudevillain, Brice; Delrieu, Guy

P20: Plinius16-76Analysis of one of the deadliest flood events in Attica, Greece: the case of Mandra flood on 15 November 2017 Lagouvardos, Kostas; Giannaros, Theodore; Kotroni, Vasiliki; Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Dafis, Stavros; Papagiannaki, Katerina

P21: Plinius16-81Thundertstorms with anomalous motion in consecutive days over the same trajectory Rigo, Tomeu; Del Moral, Anna; Llasat, Maria Carmen

THURSDAY, 11 OCTOBER 2018 7

16th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean RisksMontpellier| France| 9–11 October 2018

PL4 Advances in remote sensing methods for hydro-meteorological risk monitoring

Room: Rabelais

Chairperson: Christian Massari

14:15–14:45: Plinius16-58Current methods and future opportunities for remote sensing data within flood forecasting at ECMWF (solicited) Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Prudhomme, Christel

14:45–15:00: Plinius16-15Advances in flood monitoring using commercial microwave links Alpert, Pinhas; Laron, Yonatan; Messer, Hagit; David, Noam; Eshel, Adam

15:00–15:15: Plinius16-39RainSat: satellite transmissions face to heavy rain and rain rate evaluation via TV Sat Signal Attenuation Measurement Tocqueville, Laurent; Adnet, Renaud; Lefebvre, Yann

15:15–15:30: Plinius16-43The precipitation structure of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone Numa: analysis of GPM-CO observations and NWP simulations Panegrossi, Giulia; Marra, Anna Cinzia; Sanò, Paolo; D’Adderio, Leo Pio; Dietrich, Stefano; Baldini, Luca; Montopoli, Mario; Federico, Stefano

15:30–15:45: Plinius16-52ESA-CCI soil moisture for agricultural drought: validation by using crop data Modanesi, Sara; Massari, Christian; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Amarnath, Giriraj

15:45 Coffee break & PL4 posters

Room: Rabelais

Chairperson: Thierry Pellarin

16:15–16:30: Plinius16-53Analysis and predictability of drought in North Africa using optical, thermal and microwave remote sensing time series Le Page, Michel; Zribi, Mehrez

16:30–16:45: Plinius16-68Performance of satellite-based products in forecasting landslides triggered by heavy rainfall events in Italy Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Ciabatta, Luca; Brocca, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi

16:45–17:00: Plinius16-72A merged precipitation data field aimed to improve the performances of an operational early warning system for landslide forecasting. Ponziani, Francesco

17:00–17:15: Plinius16-14Use of satellite microwave observations for Hail detection in the Mediterranean Dafis, Stavros; Claud, Chantal; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Rysman, Jean-François; M. Funatsu, Beatriz

17:15–17:30: Plinius16-86Application of spatial logistic multiple regression for landslide susceptibility analysis in the Beni-Chougrane Mountains, Western Algeria Zaagane, Mansour; Hamimed, Abderahmane; Refas, Soraya

PL4 posters

Poster area: Main hall Attendance time: 15:45–16:15

P13: Plinius16-85Assessment of soil erosion vulnerability using GIS and multicriterion analysis: case of the Fergoug river catchment in the western Algeria Hamimed, Abderrahmane; Zaagane, Mansour; Sadeg, Mourad; Azzaz, Habib

P14: Plinius16-5Flood hazard mapping using high-resolution Pleiades digital elevation model in the Ourika catchment (Morocco) Bennani, Oumaima; Tramblay, Yves; Saidi, Mohammed El Mehdi; Gascoin, Simon; Leone, Frédéric

P15: Plinius16-29Real-time mapping and forecasting of hydro-meteorological risks in South-Eastern France Fouchier, Catherine; Atger, Frédéric; Liebault, Frédéric; Bel, Coraline; Batista, Dominique; Azemard, Pierre; Javelle, Pierre; Mélanie, Bertrand

P16: Plinius16-62Toward and assessment of climate change impact of landslide occurrence in Central Italy through physically-based approachesMassini, Roberta; Camici, Stefania; Ciabatta, Luca; Salciarini, Diana; Alvioli, Massimiliano; Brocca, Luca

P17: Plinius16-70On the feasibility of using satellite-based soil moisture data for rainfall-induced landslide prediction Ciabatta, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Brocca, Luca