Page 1
Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth
Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction)
Source: OECD June 2013 Forecasts, Haver Analytics, Rogoff and Reinhart (2008), Finance Canada Calculations *Big Five financial crisis include Spain (1977), Norway (1987), Finland (1991), Sweden (1991) and Japan (1992). **Recessions (i.e, two straight quarters of contraction in G20 advanced economies since 1960 *** range limits are average of best/worst three AE recessions 1960-2006
Figure 2: IMF WEO Forecasts of Global GDP Growth (Percent Growth)
Source: IMF
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1960-2006 AE Recessions' Range*** 1960-2006 AE Recessions**
Big Five Financial Crisis* Euro zone
U.K. U.S.
OECD Forecast (Years 5-6) Years after recession Years before recession
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
Apr-2011
Oct-2011
Apr-2012
Oct-2012
Apr-2013
Jul-2013
Actual
Page 2
Figure 3: G-20 Employment (Persons Employed, Millions)
Source: IFS. India and Saudi Arabia are excluded.
Figure 4: Current Account Imbalances (Percent of G-20 GDP)
Source: April 2013 WEO. Oil Exporters = Russia and Saudi Arabia.
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
G-20 Surplus ex. Oil Exporters G-20 Oil Exporters G-20 Deficit
Page 3
Fiscal Policy
Figure 5: IMF Projections of General Government Deficits for 2013
(Percent of GDP; Red Diamond is Deficit Target Based on 2010 Deficit)
Source: April 2013 Fiscal Monitor; Updated data from 2013 IMF Article IV for France, Germany, Spain, US
Note: Korea has a fiscal surplus and Japan was exempt from the Toronto Commitment. For the Accountability Assessment, the UK is
assessed using its cyclically adjusted primary balance, and using a target based on the Spring 2010 WEO. The US is assessed using IMF
forecasts of the federal government deficits.
Figure 6: IMF Projections of the Change in General Government Debt Levels from 2015 to 2016 and
2016 to 2017 in Toronto Fiscal Commitment Countries
(Percent of GDP)
Source: April 2013 WEO; Updated data from 2013 IMF Article IV for France, Germany, Spain, US
Note: Japan was exempt from the Toronto Commitments.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Spain UK US EU
Per
cen
t o
f G
DP
2013 Projections 2013 Targets Target Upper Bound Target Lower Bound
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Korea Spain UK US EU
Per
cen
t o
f G
DP
Projected Change in Gross Debt-to GDP Ratio 2015-16
Projected Change in Gross Debt-to GDP Ratio 2016-17
Page 4
Figure 7: IMF Projections of the Change in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances
(Percent of Potential GDP; Coloured Bar Indicates Degree of Fiscal Contraction/Expansion Each Year)
Source: April 2013 Fiscal Monitor; Updated 2013 IMF Article IV data for Spain; France data was calculated for their 2013 IMF Article IV but
not released. Measures of CAPB are based on estimates of potential output, revenues, and expenditures.
Figure 8: IMF Projections of Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance Levels
(Percent of Potential GDP)
Source: April 2013 WEO; Updated 2013 IMF Article IV data for Spain; France data was calculated for their 2013 IMF Article IV but not
released. Measures of CAPB are based on estimates of potential output, revenues, and expenditures.
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea Spain UK US
Per
cen
t o
f P
ote
nti
al G
DP
2012 2013 2014
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea Spain UK US
Per
cen
t o
f P
ote
nti
al G
DP
2012 2013 2014
Page 5
Figure 9: General Government Debt Levels – Advanced Economies
(Percent of GDP)
Source: April 2013 WEO. Updated data from 2013 IMF Article IV’s for France, Germany, Japan, Spain, US
Figure 10: IMF Projections of General Government Deficits
(Percent of GDP)
Source: April 2013 Fiscal Monitor
0
50
100
150
200
250
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea Spain UK US EU
Per
cen
t o
f G
DP
2007 2013 2018
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Argentina Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico Russia SaudiArabia
SouthAfrica
Turkey
Per
cen
t o
f G
DP
2012 2013 2014
Page 6
Figure 11: General Government Debt Levels – Emerging Market Economies
(Percent of GDP)
Source: April 2013 WEO
0
50
100
150
200
250P
erce
nt
of
GD
P
Pre-crisis (2007) Current (2013) IMF Projection (2018)
Page 7
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Policies
Figure 12: Inflation in the G-20
(Latest Relevant Observation Represented by Blue Bar; Red Dashes Show Definition of Price Stability)
Note: Inflation rates and price stability targets based on members’ submissions or the latest available data. Some members’ monetary policy
objectives include more than price stability.
Table 1: IMF Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes in 2011 and 2012
Exchange Rate Classification G-20 Members
No Separate Legal Tender
Currency Board
Conventional Peg Saudi Arabia
Stabilized Arrangement
Crawling Peg
Crawl-like Arrangement China, Argentina
Other Managed Arrangement Russia
Floating Brazil, India, Indonesia, Korea, South Africa, Turkey
Free Floating Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Mexico, United Kingdom, United States
Source: IMF’s Enhanced Accountability Assessment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Pre
cen
t
Page 8
Figure 13: US Dollar Exchange Rates up to the Week of August 16, 2013
(Week of September 27, 2009=100; Upwards movement is an appreciation)
Source: Haver Analytics
60
75
90
105
120
2009:09 2010:09 2011:09 2012:09
Australia Canada Euro area
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2009:09 2010:09 2011:09 2012:09
Japan Korea United Kingdom
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2009:09 2010:09 2011:09 2012:09
Argentina Brazil China
India Indonesia
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2009:09 2010:09 2011:09 2012:09
Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia
South Africa Turkey
Page 9
Figure 14: NEER in the G-20 up to July, 2013
(September 2009=100; Upwards movement is an appreciation)
Source: BIS
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Australia Canada Euro Area
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Japan Korea
United Kingdom United States
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Argentina Brazil China
India Indonesia
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia
South Africa Turkey
Page 10
Figure 15: REER in the G-20 up to July, 2013
(September 2009=100; Upwards movement is an appreciation)
Source: BIS
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Australia Canada Euro area
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Japan Korea
United Kingdom United States
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Argentina Brazil China
India Indonesia
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
09-2009 09-2010 09-2011 09-2012
Mexico Russia Saudi Arabia
South Africa Turkey
Page 11
Figure 16: Annual Change in Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Percentage of Nominal USD GDP
Source: Haver Analytics
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012
Page 12
Structural Reforms
Figure 17: Progress by Structural Reform Commitment Grouping
Source: Los Cabos Templates and OECD Calculations
0 20 40 60 80 100
Other
Financial regulation
Human capital
Taxation
Labour market regulations
Product market regulation
%
Pending Ongoing Completed
