Project Appraisal Document (PAD) - World Bank · 2020. 7. 16. · report no: pad3070 international...

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD3070

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

ON A

PROPOSED CREDIT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 21.1 MILLION (US$29.16 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

INCLUDING SDR 15.1 MILLION (US$20.84 MILLION EQUIVALENT) FROM THE IDA 18 REGIONAL SUB-WINDOW FOR REFUGEES AND HOST COMMUNITIES

AND

A PROPOSED GRANT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 15.1 MILLION (US$20.84 MILLION EQUIVALENT) FROM THE IDA 18 REGIONAL SUB-WINDOW FOR REFUGEES AND HOST COMMUNITIES

TO THE

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN

FOR A

STRENGTHENING INSTITUTIONS FOR REFUGEE ADMINISTRATION PROJECT

February 5, 2020

Governance Global Practice South Asia Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective December 31, 2019)

Currency Unit = Pakistan Rupee (PKR)

US$ 1 = PKR155.0

US$1 = SDR 0.72

FISCAL YEAR

July 1 – June 30

Regional Vice President: Hartwig Schafer

Country Director: Patchamuthu Illangovan

Regional Director: Zoubida Kherous Allaoua

Practice Manager: Ismaila B. Ceesay

Task Team Leaders: Raymond Muhula, Milena Petrova Stefanova

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AGP Auditor General of Pakistan

AGPR Accountant General of Pakistan Revenue

CAR Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees

CCAR Chief Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees

CPS Country Partnership Strategy

DA Designated Account

DLI Disbursement-Linked Indicator

DLR Disbursement-Linked Result

EEP Eligible Expenditure Program

EZ-KAR Eshteghal Zaiee-Karmondenda

FM Financial Management

FMIS Financial Management Information System

FMS Financial Management Specialist

FY Fiscal Year

GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit

GoP Government of Pakistan

IDA International Development Association

IMSC Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee

IPSAS International Public Sector Accounting Standards

IUFR Interim Unaudited Financial Report

KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MIS Management Information System

NADRA National Database and Registration Authority

OSU Operations Support Unit

PC Project Coordinator

PDO Project Development Objectives

PoR Proof of Registration

PSDP Public Sector Development Program

RAHA Refugee-Affected and Hosting Areas

RMP Repatriation and Management Policy for Afghan Refugees

RSW Refugee Sub-Window

SDR Special Drawing Rights

SAFRON States and Frontier Regions

SOP Standard operating procedures

SSAR Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees

TOR Terms of Reference

UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

USD United States Dollar

VFC Visa Facilitation Centers

WB World Bank

The World Bank Strengthening Institutions for Refugee Administration Project (P165542)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT....................................................................................................... 1

A. Country Context ............................................................................................................................ 1

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................................ 1

C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives ........................................................................................... 4

II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................... 4

A. Project Development Objective .................................................................................................... 5

B. Project Components ..................................................................................................................... 5

C. Project Beneficiaries ......................................................................................................................... 8

D. Results Chain .................................................................................................................................... 9

E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners...................................................................... 9

F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................................... 10

III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................................. 10

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ....................................................................... 10

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements ..................................................................... 10

C. Sustainability ............................................................................................................................... 10

IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY .................................................................................... 11

A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis ................................................................................... 11

B. Fiduciary .......................................................................................................................................... 11

C. Safeguards ...................................................................................................................................... 12

D. Gender ........................................................................................................................................ 13

E. Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 13

F. Citizen Engagement .................................................................................................................... 13

G. Treatment of Personal Data ........................................................................................................ 13

H. Grievance Redress Mechanisms ................................................................................................. 14

V. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 14

VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 16

ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan .......................................... 35

ANNEX 2: Economic Analysis ......................................................................................... 39

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DATASHEET

BASIC INFORMATION BASIC_INFO_TABLE

Country(ies) Project Name

Pakistan Strengthening Institutions for Refugee Administration Project

Project ID Financing Instrument Environmental Assessment Category

P165542 Investment Project Financing

C-Not Required

Financing & Implementation Modalities

[ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC)

[ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s)

[✓] Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s)

[ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country

[ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict

[ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster

[ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA)

Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date

03-Mar-2020 28-Feb-2025

Bank/IFC Collaboration

No

Proposed Development Objective(s)

The Project Development Objective is to improve organizational and institutional capacity for managing refugees and host communities in Pakistan.

Components

Component Name Cost (US$, millions)

The World Bank Strengthening Insitutions for Refugee Administration Project (P165542)

ii

Implementing Organizational and Institutional Reforms for Improved Management of Refugees and Host Communities (Performance-based)

40.00

Technical Assistance for Improved Management of Refugees and Host Communities 10.00

Organizations

Borrower: Islamic Republic of Pakistan

Implementing Agency: Ministry of States and Frontier Regions

PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions)

SUMMARY-NewFin1

Total Project Cost 50.00

Total Financing 50.00

of which IBRD/IDA 50.00

Financing Gap 0.00

DETAILS-NewFinEnh1

World Bank Group Financing

International Development Association (IDA) 50.00

IDA Credit 29.16

IDA Grant 20.84

IDA Resources (in US$, Millions)

Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount

Pakistan 29.16 20.84 0.00 50.00

National PBA 8.32 0.00 0.00 8.32

Refugee 20.84 20.84 0.00 41.68

Total 29.16 20.84 0.00 50.00

Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions)


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WB Fiscal Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Annual 0.24 4.59 6.65 12.72 14.27 11.51

Cumulative 0.24 4.84 11.49 24.22 38.49 50.00

INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas

Governance Fragile, Conflict & Violence

Climate Change and Disaster Screening

This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks

SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)

Risk Category Rating

1. Political and Governance ⚫ High

2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Substantial

3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ High

4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate

5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Substantial

6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial

7. Environment and Social ⚫ Moderate

8. Stakeholders ⚫ Substantial

9. Other ⚫ High

10. Overall ⚫ High


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COMPLIANCE

Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects?

[ ] Yes [✓] No

Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies?

[ ] Yes [✓] No

Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No

Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 ✔

Performance Standards for Private Sector Activities OP/BP 4.03 ✔

Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 ✔

Forests OP/BP 4.36 ✔

Pest Management OP 4.09 ✔

Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 ✔

Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 ✔

Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 ✔

Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 ✔

Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 ✔

Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 ✔

Legal Covenants

Sections and Description Recipient shall ensure that the Project’s activities involving collection, storage, usage, or processing of personal data in any other manner are carried out with due regard to appropriate data protection and privacy standards and practices and in accordance with the MoU on Registration of Afghan Citizens and the UNHCR-NADRA Partnership Agreement.

Sections and Description Recipient shall maintain throughout the period of implementation of the Project the MoU on Registration of Afghan Citizens and the UNHCR-NADRA Partnership Agreement.

Sections and Description


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No withdrawals shall be made for payments made prior to the Signature Date, except that withdrawals up to an aggregate amount not to exceed SDR 500,000 may be made for payments made prior to this date but on or after January 1, 2020, for Eligible Expenditures under Category (2).

Sections and Description Establishment of an Inter-Ministerial Steering within three months of the effectiveness.

Sections and Description Establishment of the Procurement Committee within six months of the effectiveness.

Conditions

Type Description

Effectiveness The Association is satisfied that the Recipient has an adequate refugee protection

framework.


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I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT

A. Country Context

1. Pakistan, the sixth most populous country in the world is at a crossroads. The economy accelerated with Gross Domestic Product growth of 5.3 percent in FY18 and slowed down to 3.5 percent in FY19 as fiscal and external imbalances persisted.1 Poverty declined from 64.3 percent in 2001 to 24.3 percent in 20152, but inequality persists. The country ranks low on the 2018 Human Capital Index (HCI), at 134 out of 157 countries. Gender disparities continue, and female labor force participation was only 26.5 percent in 2018. After the onset of another boom and bust cycle, a US$6 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program commenced in July 2019. Growth is expected to pick up as structural reforms take effect and macroeconomic imbalances are addressed. Over the medium to long term, Pakistan needs to invest more and better in human capital, raise more revenue, simplify doing business procedures, expand regional trade and exports, and sustainably manage its natural endowments, as articulated in Pakistan@100: Shaping the Future.3

2. Pakistan has made important strides in poverty reduction, but it remains an unfinished agenda. While the country has lifted more than 23 million people out of poverty in the past 15 years, the current poverty rate is still 24.3 percent. There are significant disparities in poverty rates between rural (30.7 percent) and urban areas (12.5 percent), with poverty having declined faster in urban areas. Pakistan’s poverty reduction efforts have been widely documented. Remittances, safety net transfers and resilience of a large informal economy have contributed to poverty reduction. However, the challenges of poverty reduction are exacerbated by climate change and disaster risk related vulnerabilities. In addition, inequalities in service delivery and low investment in the social sectors impede accumulation of human capital, as noted in the HCI.

3. Pakistan has had a protracted refugee situation since the 1970s, hosting five million Afghans at its peak. Currently, Pakistan is hosting 1.4 million Afghan refugees, of which nearly half are women. Since 2006, the Government of Pakistan (GoP) has issued Afghan refugees Proof of Registration (PoR) cards. These cards enable their temporary stay in the country and are renewed periodically. The country has a unique context with regard to refugees. While refugees initially lived in special villages, since the mid-1990s they have been relatively free to move out to urban areas and access social services. They are mainly employed in the informal sector and recently have been allowed to open bank accounts.

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context

4. Pakistan has invested significantly in designing a refugee protection framework and administrative practices that are consistent with international standards and norms. Pakistan’s Protection Framework for Afghan refugees has developed over time. It includes: (i) implementing administrative and legal measures for refugees, such as the exemption from applicability of the 1946 Foreigners’ Act; (ii) authorizing Afghan refugees to work in the country; (iii) issuing and renewing PoR cards with the support of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR); (iv) signing of the regional Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees (SSAR) in 2012, with Iran and Afghanistan, under UNHCR

1 World Bank.2018. “Pakistan Development Update 2018 – At a Cross Road.” Washington, DC: World Bank. 2 World Bank. 2018. “From Poverty to Equity – Pakistan at 100.” Washington, DC: World Bank. 3 World Bank. 2019. Pakistan at 100: Shaping the Future. Washington, DC: World Bank.


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facilitation; and (v) approving the Repatriation and Management Policy for Afghan Refugees (RMP) in 2017. This Protection Framework has been found to be adequate by the UNHCR and the World Bank.

5. Pakistan’s refugee management approach draws from the principles of the SSAR. It has three pillars: support voluntary repatriation; promote sustainable reintegration in Afghanistan; and provide continued assistance to host communities. The SSAR has five outcomes: (i) support to voluntary repatriation; (ii) access to shelter and essential social services for refugees, returnees and host communities; (iii) improved and diversified livelihood opportunities through training and enhanced food security; (iv) social and environmental protection of refugees and returnees, as well as assistance and support to host communities; and (v) capacity development of national authorities, associations, organizations and communities concerned with refugees, returnees and host communities.

6. The RMP builds on the SSAR and guides Pakistan’s efforts to safeguard refugees and maintain protection standards that align with international norms and practices. The RMP includes: (i) continued and gradual voluntary repatriation with the assistance of the UNHCR; (ii) documentation of undocumented Afghan citizens; (iii) introduction of a visa policy for Afghan refugees; (iv) regulated border management; and (v) national refugee law.

7. Since 2017, the Government has made significant progress in implementing the RMP’s priorities. The GoP has, jointly with UNHCR, facilitated the voluntary repatriation of Afghan refugees, with more than 6,000 repatriating in 2019 alone. In 2018, the GoP completed the documentation of about 879,000 undocumented Afghans, and jointly with Government of Afghanistan and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), issued Afghan Citizen Cards in Pakistan. The GoP also estimates that a total of 500,000 Afghans are still undocumented and unregistered. The GoP has also streamlined border management at Torkham to better regulate cross border movements between Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, there is still some work to be done in developing the implementation plan for the visa policy.

8. The Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON) is responsible for managing refugee affairs in Pakistan. Within SAFRON, the Chief Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees (CCAR) and the Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees (CARs) in each province are responsible for implementing Government policy on Afghan refugees. The CCAR was created in 1979 to manage the huge refugee inflow from Afghanistan. More recently CCAR and CARs have become responsible not only for coordinating humanitarian support for Afghan refugees, but also for coordinating policy discussions within Government and with humanitarian partners. The Ministry of Interior (MoI), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) and the Ministry of Human Rights (MoHR) are also involved in refugee matters to the extent of their respective mandates.

9. Since the establishment of the CCAR, the refugee situation has evolved in substantial ways. The roles of the CCAR and CARs have equally evolved and, in their current form, the CCAR and CARs must contend with several new challenges. Strengthening their capacity is even more urgent given increased movement of refugees into various urban areas. Altogether, 68 percent of Afghan refugees live outside refugee villages (RV); the rest (32 percent) live in the 54 RVs across the country: 43 RVs in KP; 10 RVs in


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Balochistan, and 1 RV in Punjab.4

10. The movement of refugees into urban centers puts additional pressure on the already overburdened public services. These challenges are exacerbated by the absence of a clear policy on urban refugee management. The movement of refugees into urban areas has also created the need to rethink the role of the CCAR and CARs. Service delivery to refugees is no longer limited to refugee villages, Afghan refugees can now access social services in public hospitals and schools across Pakistan.

11. The situation for Afghan refugee women and girls is particularly difficult due to cultural barriers that restrict access to social services. Female refugees face considerable constraints in accessing education, health services and employment opportunities. These opportunities are often limited due to constrained mobility, lack of information, and social segregation between men and women in the public domain. The lack of financial means to engage in economic activity imposes further obstacles. These gaps indicate that refugee women are more likely than men to face similar constraints in accessing and benefitting from the visa policy. Special facilitation measures are required to support women to access social services, including obtaining visas.

12. To improve refugee administration, the GoP needs to address the following:

• institutional gaps: such as regulations and procedures for managing refugees, policies for protection of personal data of refugees and affected persons, and performance standards for staff of departments managing refugees.

• organizational gaps: strengthening the capacity of key departments responsible for refugee administration, notably the CCAR and CARs; strengthening coordination among these departments, for instance, through the use of technology, and developing a performance management system to monitor improvements in meeting departmental objectives.

• skills gaps: including limited staff capacity in areas such as refugee protection norms, migration policy, management information systems (MIS), procurement and financial management.5

• diversity gap: Women are sparsely represented in the public sector, including in CCAR/CARs where female staff account for less than 10 percent. Unless the CCAR/CARs undergo organizational transformation, including addressing gender disparities in staffing, they will not be able to adequately support Afghan refugees, particularly women, to fully benefit from mainstreamed social services and livelihood opportunities.

• lack of systems for engagement of host communities: there are three main problem areas: (i) mechanisms for complaints handling; (ii) communications (outreach/stakeholder engagement); and (iii) systems strengthening (data and monitoring). The CARs provide a complaint handling and feedback mechanism, but gaps remain. For instance, there is no fixed time for responding to complaints, no provision for feedback to complainants throughout the

4 UNHCR. 2019. Afghan National Registration Database (Sept. 30). Islamabad. UNHCR. Available on the web: http://data2.unhcr.org/en/country/pak. 5 CHIP Training and Consulting. 2019. Capacity Need Assessment and Training Needs Assessment of the CCAR. Islamabad.


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complaint handling process, and no database to confidentially store all the complaints. The CCAR on the other hand does not have structures for receiving feedback and handling complaints. There is a lack of data on the socioeconomic profiles of refugees and host communities. Women are particularly adversely affected due to cultural constraints, which inhibit their access to and participation in existing complaints handling mechanisms.

C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives

13. The proposed Strengthening Institutions for Refugee Administration (SIRA) Project (the Project) is aligned with the World Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) (FY15-20)6 and with the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. It is also aligned with the Pakistan@100 report which highlights the necessary reforms required for Pakistan to become an upper-middle income country by 2047. The Project supports the CPS’s results areas III (Inclusion) and IV (Service Delivery) by supporting the effective and inclusive management of Afghan refugees, Afghan nationals, and host communities and provision of visa and complaints handling mechanism. Improved collection of data on refugees and host communities will also support more efficient service delivery. The Project specifically supports CPS Outcome 3.2: Reduced vulnerability for groups at risk.

14. The Project is fully aligned with the Board Consultation on Eligibility for funding under the IDA18 RSW. Alongside this Project, other proposed interventions will include: (i) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Human Capital Investment Project; (ii) Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project; and (iii) Balochistan Livelihoods and Entrepreneurship Project, complemented by a grant from the KP, FATA and Balochistan Multi Donor Trust Fund. The Project is aligned with the objectives of the RSW, as it supports the development of institutions that advance sustainable solutions to the protracted refugee situation in Pakistan.

15. The Project is also aligned with the objectives of ongoing World Bank engagement in Afghanistan to support the issuance of passports to Afghans in Pakistan, under the Afghanistan: Eshteghal Zaiee-Karmondena (EZ-KAR) project (P166127). Both projects support complementary investments based on an agreed comprehensive regional focus on socioeconomic opportunities and support to institutions that are responsible for refugees.

II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

16. The Project is a US$50 million Investment Project Financing with DLIs. The Project will support key reforms under the GoP’s RMP described above.

17. Several government entities are involved in the implementation of the GoP’s program and, therefore, in the achievement of results related to this Project: the MoI, of which the National Database Registration Authority (NADRA) is a part; SAFRON, of which the CCAR/CCARs are part; MoE; MoFA; and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The estimated cost of the Government program supported by this Project for 2020-2025 is US$216 million (Table 1). The total WB financing envelope of US$50 million represents approximately 23 percent of the total financing. The eligible expenditure programs (EEPs) will account for employee related expenses, operation

6 World Bank. 2014. Islamic Republic of Pakistan: Country Partnership Strategy, 2015-2020 (Report No. 84645-PK) and the Performance and Learning Review (Report No. 113574).


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expenses, and repairs and maintenance already covered under government budget for participating ministries and departments.

Table 1: Total Project financing (US$ million)

Source Amount (US$ m) Percent of total

Government 166 77

IDA 50 23

Total program financing 216 100

A. Project Development Objective

PDO Statement

18. To improve organizational and institutional capacity for managing refugees and host communities in Pakistan.

PDO Level Indicators Progress towards the Project development objective (PDO) is measured by the following indicators:

• PDO indicator 1: CCAR and CARs achieve, at least, 75 percent of assigned key performance targets (Percent)

• PDO indicator 2: Registered Afghan refugee users of visa facilitation centers (VFC) report satisfaction with service standards (Percent).

• PDO indicator 3: Registered Afghan refugees visas applications processed (Number).

• PDO Indicator 4: Host community and refugee complaints resolved through the complaints handling mechanisms within 45 days of reporting (Percent).

• PDO indicator 5: Data on socio economic characteristics of refugees and host communities published regularly by CCAR.

B. Project Components

Component 1: Implementing organizational and institutional reforms for management of refugees and host communities (US$40 million-Performance based)

19. This component will carry out a program of activities designed to strengthen institutional and organizational structures for management of refugees and host communities, including strengthening information management and improving performance of selected departments. This component will finance the key eligible expenditures required to achieve the results of this Project (Table 2). The seven Disbursement Linked Indicators (DLIs) and their associated disbursement-linked results (DLRs) are selected because of their direct association with the specific eligible expenditures and the related results (additional details in Annex 2).


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Table 2: Linking DLIs to Project activities and results

Disbursement Linked Indicator Links to results and benefits to refugees and host communities

#1. Improved resolution of the complaints of refugees and refugee hosting communities through operationalized complaints handling mechanisms (Linked to PDO indicator #4).

Work under this DLI will support the implementation of complaints handling mechanisms at the CCAR and CARs to receive complaints and feedback from refugees and host communities. Direct benefits to refugees and host communities, including improved service standards for resolution of complaints.

#2. Strengthened mechanism for management of information across participating entities (Linked to PDO indicator # 1 and #3).

Work under this DLI will support the implementation of management information systems that allow for proper coordination between the CCAR and CARs to facilitate information sharing and monitoring of refugee issues including movements, data, welfare, visa issuance, among others. Direct benefit to refugees includes streamlined one-stop information system that would improve administrative service delivery related to visas and other needs.

#3. Improved performance of departments responsible for visa issuance (Linked to PDO indicator #1).

Work under this DLI will support the establishment and implementation of performance standards in CCAR and other organizations responsible for the implementation of visa policy, in particular the reorganization of the CCAR to position it for its role in the implementation of the visa policy. Direct benefits to refugees include a more structured CCAR able to be a stronger advocate for refugee policy and a better interlocutor for GoP on regional and global refugee related matters.

#4. Strengthened organizational capacity for managing refugees as per the government policy (Linked to PDO indicator #3).

Work under this DLI will support the improvements in CCAR, CAR, NADRA and SAFRON for better management of refugee policy and the protection of data. The DLI will support the establishment of systems for data protection, rules on data security, especially consistent with the MoU between NADRA-UNHCR protection protocols. Direct benefits to refugees include improved staff skills and organizational capacity at CCAR and CAR for handling refugee related matters.

#5. Improved knowledge and skills of professional staff of organizations responsible for refugee management (Linked to PDO indicator #1 and #2).

Work under this DLI will support implementation of learning program to develop a strong knowledge base and important technical skills on refugee management. Direct benefits to refugees including better application by staff of relevant global norms and standards applicable to refugees.

#6. Data on socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities published regularly. (Linked to PDO indicator #5).

Work under this DLI will support implementation of a program to strengthen data availability and continuous collection of data on the socio-economic profiles of Afghan refugees. Direct benefits to refugees include improved understanding of the Afghan refugee situation and evidence-based policy making through availability of data.

#7. Improved implementation arrangements for the visa policy (Linked to PDO indicator #3).

Work under this DLI will support implementation of the visa policy. Direct benefit to refugees includes streamlined processes for visa application, better information on how to apply for the visa and information about complaints handling.

Component 2: Technical Assistance for improved management of refugees and host communities (US$10.0 million)

20. This component will support specific inputs required to achieve the results in the implementation of the Government policy supported by this Project. The Project will support activities to strengthen the CCAR’s and CARs’ organizational and institutional capacity for management of refugees. This component comprises six sub-components:


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Sub-component 2.1: Strengthening the institutional and organizational capacity of CCAR and CARs

21. The Project will finance the following activities: (a) conducting detailed skills audit of the staff; (b) providing training in selected courses related to refugee management; (c) developing organizational performance targets, job descriptions, grades, and Key Performance Indicators for the staff therein; (d) developing a management information system; (e) reviewing the existing legal framework applicable to treatment of personal data of refugees and host communities and making recommendations for addressing gaps identified therein; (f) conducting a functional and organizational review of CCAR; and (g) developing the Refugee Learning Program.

Sub-component 2.2: Improving implementation of the Refugee Management and Repatriation Policy

22. The Project will finance the following activities: (a) development of detailed design and implementation plan for the visa policy; (b) enhancement of information sharing systems between NADRA, Department of Immigration and Passport, CCAR; and (c) establishment and operationalization of complaints handling mechanisms in CCAR and CARs based on existing policy of the Government.

Sub-component 2.3: Supporting Government stakeholder engagement on initiatives related to refugees and host communities including protection of personal data of refugees and host communities

23. The Project will finance the following activities:(a) government stakeholder engagement on initiatives related to refugees and host communities, including those governing protection of personal data of refugees and host communities as per international best practices; (b) designing and operationalization of institutional and organizational structures required to support implementation of the refugees-related initiatives mentioned in subsection (a) through procurement of equipment and provision of training and capacity building activities; and (c) establishment and operationalization of a communication cell.

Sub-component 2.4: Supporting CARs in strategic communication with, and engagement of, refugee hosting communities

24. The Project will finance the following activities: (a) strengthening capacity of refugee district administration structures, including increasing participation of women therein; (b) developing a mechanism for regular outreach and collection of beneficiary feedback; and (c) procuring necessary equipment and developing monitoring systems.

Sub-component 2.5: Supporting establishment of baseline and regular data on selected indicators

25. The Project will support the following activities:(a) preparation of data collection instruments; and (b) procurement of equipment for data collection and analysis.

Sub-component 2.6: Supporting CCAR in the implementation and overall management of the


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Project

26. This component will support the CCAR in the implementation and overall management of the Project. The Project will finance all aspects related to the social and environmental safeguards; monitoring and evaluation; complaints handling mechanisms for Project activities; and financial audits. At least 50 percent of Project staff will comprise qualified and experienced female professionals.

C. Project Beneficiaries

27. The beneficiaries of this Project are the approximately 1.4 million refugees in Pakistan and the host communities. With the strengthening of the CCAR and CARs, and the implementation of the visa policy, the Project will indirectly reach a substantial portion of the 1.4 million refugees. About 15,000 of PoR card holders (of which 25 percent are female) are estimated to benefit from the visa policy during the life of the Project (direct beneficiaries). Secondary beneficiaries will also include the staff of the CCAR and CARs, and other government agencies involved in refugee management who will benefit from training and skill building to better prepare them for the continued strategic management of refugees.


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D. Results Chain

Fig. 1: Results Chain

E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners

28. The World Bank’s involvement is informed by the emerging focus on linking development and humanitarian assistance achieve its twin goals. There is evidence that development approaches to address protracted refugee situations can lead to positive outcomes for both refugees and host communities and improve conditions for voluntary repatriation. The World Bank has collaborated closely with the UNHCR, GIZ, and the International Organization for Migration (IOM). UNHCR has provided inputs during the design of the projects under the RSW based on its long experience in Pakistan. In addition, the World Bank will ensure complementarity among the projects financed by the RSW. Finally, the Bank’s presence in the Project also enhances provision of public good such as women’s empowerment, climate change, resilience and citizen engagement.


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F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design

29. Project design has been informed by the Bank’s experience in public sector reform in both Pakistan and elsewhere and global lessons on development approaches to forced displacement. Experience shows that client leadership and broad participation in Project design is critical for ownership and commitment to implementation.7 The CCAR and SAFRON led the preparation of the Eligibility Note and helped define the contours of the Project. The Project is focused on incremental improvements in key human resource, financial, and procurement management systems that can be delivered within the project period to position the CCAR not only to implement the visa policy, but also to lead policy discussions on refugee matters.

III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements

30. SAFRON will be the implementing agency. The Chief Commissioner of the CCAR, will establish an Operations Support Unit (OSU) led by a Project Coordinator to manage the day-to-day implementation of the Project. An Inter-ministerial committee already exists and will be reconstituted to serve as the Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee (IMSC), providing oversight of the Project. The committee’s membership will be drawn from key participating ministries and agencies. The committee will meet semiannually to review the progress of Project implementation and the status of related policies. In addition, a technical working group comprising staff of the CCAR and CARs will meet quarterly to review progress under the guidance of the Chief Commissioner. The Project Operations Manual will outline implementation details (Annex 1). Project implementation will also benefit from lessons learned from the other RSW projects under implementation in Pakistan.

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements

31. The Project will finance the establishment of a dedicated M&E unit in the CCAR that is responsible for coordinating data collection and monitoring project performance. A third-party verification agent will validate the achievement of DLIs and submit verification reports. A coordination plan will set out the timing and responsibility for reporting requirements against the indicators and milestones. The Project has 13 results indicators: five indicators track results at the PDO level; seven are DLIs; and the rest are intermediate results indicators.

C. Sustainability

32. The GoP has supported Afghan refugees for over 40 years through a mixture of its own resources and with support from donor partners and is expected to continue. This engagement is likely to continue for the long term, contributing to the sustainability of the interventions supported by the Project. Several federal and provincial departments continue to implement Government-financed programs linked to the projects supported by the RSW. This includes supporting efforts to establish better administrative practices for refugee management in Pakistan, as well as advancing the GoP’s capacity to

7 Independent Evaluation Group .2008. Public Sector Reform: What Works and Why? Washington, DC.: World Bank.


11

provide social services and livelihood opportunities to refugees through country systems. Pakistan is active in regional and global partnerships on sustaining support for Afghan refugees. It has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the SSAR, signaling its continued interest in finding a durable solution to the Afghan refugee situation.

IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY

A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis

33. The Project is technically sound. The Project design developed jointly by SAFRON and the World Bank, is based on the Government's priorities for supporting Afghan refugee management in Pakistan. The design and scope are based on technical analysis conducted by both SAFRON and the World Bank. In addition, the Project incorporates several lessons from World Bank experience around the world in governance and public sector management.

34. The Project will bring economic and social benefits. Afghan refugees make up roughly 1 percent of the total population of Pakistan. Most refugees work in the informal sector, making it difficult to quantify the extent of their contribution. Improvements in the institutional framework and organizational capacity is likely to produce significant economic and social dividends by unlocking opportunities for both refugees and host communities. However, given the nature of the proposed interventions, these benefits are not quantifiable ex-ante in monetary terms and thus the analysis does not lend itself to the traditional cost-benefit analysis. The economic analysis is therefore couched in qualitative terms (Annex 2).

35. Similar projects have estimated broadly “positive economic impacts”, despite being unable to provide quantifiable rates of return due to the nature of the interventions.8 For example, the Afghanistan’s EZ-KAR project (P166127) and the Moldova’s Modernization of Government Services Project (P148537) estimated increased economic benefits from the introduction of service delivery standards, performance monitoring, citizen feedback, outreach and data security.9

B. Fiduciary

(i) Financial management

36. The overall financial management (FM) risk for the Project is assessed as Moderate. The FM arrangements provide reasonable assurance on the use of the Bank proceeds for intended purposes. Government budgeting processes will apply, and the Project’s budget will be a part of the Government’s annual budget and will be reflected in its Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) for each year of project operation (Annex 1).

37. Component 1 of the Project will use a results-based financing modality, in which Project funds will be disbursed to the Federal Government’s Consolidated Fund Account No. I (non-food) on achievement of the targeted results under the DLIs. These disbursements will be made against EEPs, which constitute sizable recurrent expenditures that have demonstrable impact on agreed results.

8 World Bank. 2018. Project Appraisal Document for Afghanistan: Eshteghal Zaiee – Karmondena Project (P166127), p. 63. 9 World Bank. 2017. Project Appraisal Document for Moldova: Modernization of Government Services Project (P148537), p. 65.


12

Employee-related expenses (salaries), operating expenses, and repairs and maintenance expenditures of SAFRON and MoI and of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics are agreed as EEPs (Annex 1).

38. For disbursements under Component 2, CCAR will establish a Designated Account (DA) in US dollars at the National Bank of Pakistan for receipt of funds from the Bank. These disbursements will be report-based: cash advances equivalent to six months’ expenditure forecast will be provided to the CCAR in the DA. The CCAR office will maintain separate books of accounts on the cash basis of accounting to record receipts and payments under the Project, and transactions will be entered in real time in the national Financial Management Information System (FMIS). The Project’s financial statements will be prepared in accordance with the Cash Basis International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) and audited by the Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP). The audited financial statements will be submitted to the Bank within six months after the close of the financial year.

(ii) Procurement

39. The overall procurement risk is rated High because of limited procurement capacity in the implementing agency. SAFRON will be implementing a Bank project for the first time. Procurement risk will be managed by providing additional capacity for procurement and contract management and by providing close oversight of procurement processes and contracts under implementation. Procurement under the Project will be carried out following the World Bank Procurement Regulations for Borrowers. The implementing agency will establish a dedicated Procurement Committee to serve as the review body for procurement documents and bid evaluation recommendations developed by the Project procurement specialist. The committee members will be drawn from the CCAR and other departments. The Bank will conduct training sessions on procurement and contract management to Project staff as well as the procurement committee.

C. Safeguards

40. Environmental Safeguards: The Project will not finance any construction therefore; no major adverse environmental and social impacts are expected. The Project will finance the provision of facilities for visa application, but this will be limited to office supplies and equipment (furniture and some IT equipment for the MIS). Hence, the Project environmental safeguard category is assessed as “C” and OP4.01, Environmental Assessment, is not triggered. Thus, no Environmental and Social Assessment will be required.

41. Social Safeguards: The Project does not require land acquisition, large-scale permanent resettlement, or economic displacement. Therefore, OP 4.12, Involuntary Resettlement, is not triggered.

42. The Project design is informed by technical assessments that address social issues.10 Project communications will provide opportunities for stakeholder consultations. The Project complaints handling, and beneficiary feedback mechanisms will ensure that complaints are addressed promptly. The OSU will include a social development specialist to coordinate the social and gender aspects.

10 World Bank. 2019. “The Long Welcome: Pakistan´s Four Decade-Long Approach to Hosting Afghan Refugees”. Washington, DC: World Bank.


13

D. Gender

43. The Project aims to close gender gaps in the visa policy and the current gap in the staffing of the CCAR and CARs. The VCFs will have dedicated lines for women applicants and will include female staff who will receive training to ensure women have equal access to visa applications. The Project communication strategy will include specific messages targeting female refugees to educate them on available opportunities, encourage application, and address any cultural biases that might hinder them from taking advantage of the visa policy. Also, before the Midterm Review, the Project will conduct a gender impact assessment of the visa policy.

44. Staffing of the CCAR and CARs is generally skewed toward men. For instance, female staff comprise less than 10 percent of CCAR employees. To address this disparity, CCAR and CARs will increase the share of women employees to 15-20 percent and revise human resource policies to encourage and facilitate employment of women in the CCAR and CARs. The OSU will dedicate, preferably, at least 50 percent of the positions financed by the Project to female employees, and will provide training opportunities for women. Project indicators will track the share of women employees in CCAR and CAR; share of women receiving visas; and the share benefiting from CCAR training.

E. Climate

45. Climate change poses a significant risk to Pakistan. The Global Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable countries. It is projected that the country will experience an increase in annual mean temperature of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century with climate events, particularly recurrent flooding, becoming a priority risk for the country. To mitigate negative climate impact related to e-waste, the Project procurement plan and bidding documents will specify energy efficiency requirements. The OSU will implement a plan for disposal of the legacy ICT systems and equipment. The Project will support climate-proofing and retrofitting of such facilities as the visa facilitation centers, the CCAR, and the provincial CARs. The installation of solar panels at the CARs will mitigate the impact of emissions and decrease their carbon footprint, thereby contributing to a reduction of energy consumption. Climate risks will be covered as part of the staff training program for refugee management. A specialized module, “Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management. Proposed mitigation measures are included in sub-components 2.3 and 2.4.

F. Citizen Engagement

46. The Project will develop and incorporate elements of citizen engagement throughout implementation. This will be supported through a robust communication plan as well as a complaints handling mechanisms. Project-supported activities related to the implementation of the visa policy will include a mechanism for consulting affected communities through community-led meetings.

G. Treatment of Personal Data

47. Despite Pakistan’s lack of a domestic legal framework (including adherence to any international conventions applicable to refugees), UNHCR and the GoP have in place instruments that address the treatment of refugees, including the treatment of their personal data: the Memorandum of Understanding and the Partnership Agreement between the Government and UNHCR, which incorporate


14

UNHCR’s Policy on Personal Data Protection. The Project will retain the framework adopted by the UNCHR regarding the treatment of personal data of registered refugees, and it will design a data integrity protocol to periodically obtain reporting on any data breaches. Pakistan is considering adopting legislation concerning the protection of personal data. Since such a law may affect how information on refugees is collected, stored, and used, the Project will work closely with UNHCR to ensure strict adherence to existing protocols already agreed between NADRA and the UNHCR.

H. Grievance Redress Mechanisms

48. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank

(WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms

or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly

reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may

submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm

occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints

may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention,

and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit

complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit

http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service.

For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit

www.inspectionpanel.org.

V. KEY RISKS

. Table 3: Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool

49. Political and governance risks rating is “High”. This Project supports a mixture of administrative and policy actions that could encounter resistance and there is a reputational risk of perceptions of the World Bank supporting repatriation of Afghan refugees. The political and governance situation in Pakistan remains stable. However, given the political nature of refugee issues in Pakistan, there is a risk of reversal if the political configurations change. To mitigate these risks, the Project will support elements of existing Government policy approved in February 2017, and support only the administrative actions linked to strengthening the institutional capacity of the CCAR. The Bank will monitor activities related to the issuance of passports in Afghanistan under the ongoing Bank-supported Afghanistan EZ-KAR Project. The Bank will also ensure the provincial Bank-supported projects benefiting refugees and host communities

Risk Categories Risk Categories Rating

1. Political and Governance High

2. Macroeconomic Substantial

3. Sector Strategies and Policies High

4. Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate

5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and sustainability Substantial

6. Fiduciary Substantial

7. Environment and social Moderate

8. Stakeholders Substantial

9. Other High

Overall High

http://www.inspectionpanel.org/


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implement a strong strategic communication program.

50. Macroeconomic risk rating is “Substantial” as the country is undergoing a stabilization of its economy supported by an IMF program. The fiscal impact could lead to delayed release of capital and recurrent budgets for Project implementation. The Bank will work with the GoP to mitigate this risk by prioritizing expenditures. The Bank will also continue working with donor agencies active in the humanitarian sector to absorb any potential impact of the economic situation on the Project.

51. Sector strategies and policies risk rating is “High”. Making policy related to refugees involves several entities, and it can be difficult to reach consensus. Negative perceptions and security concerns about the continued presence of refugees could influence stakeholder engagement. An inter-ministerial committee is already formed, and it will support interagency coordination to mitigate this risk.

52. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability risk is rated “Substantial”. Participating agencies have low capacity. Specific problems include retention of qualified staff, and procurement of goods and services, where both capacity gaps and procedural aspects tend to cause delays. The CCAR and CARs will require enhanced capacity and coordination with other stakeholders will be key. The risk will be mitigated through enhanced support by the Bank to build the capacity of the relevant agencies and to maintain a strong communications strategy around reform.

53. Fiduciary risk is rated “Substantial”, given systemic weaknesses in procurement capacity. Procurement risk will be managed by providing additional capacity for procurement and contract management and by providing close oversight of procurement processes and contracts under implementation. Procurement under the Project will be carried out following the World Bank Procurement Regulations for Borrowers. For financial management risk, the Project will be subject to audit by the AGP and regular scrutiny of IUFRs by the Bank. The Bank will also provide regular support. The Bank will conduct training sessions on procurement and contract management to Project staff as well as the procurement committee.

54. Stakeholder risk rating is “Substantial”. Negative perceptions and security concerns around continued presence of refugees could influence stakeholder engagement in the process. The Project communication strategy will target specific stakeholders with key messages to support Project activities. An IMSC will support inter-agency coordination to mitigate this risk.

55. Other risks: Refugee protection risk is rated “High”. The World Bank, in consultation with UNHCR, has confirmed that Pakistan’s Protection Framework is adequate for accessing funding under the RSW. However, there is a risk that given the evolving situation in the region, any one of the elements of the Protection Framework could be changed, which would impact the objectives of the framework. These concerns are compounded by the possibility of the introduction of new data protection legislation that may affect how the personal data of refugees and persons of concern is collected, stored, and used. These risks will be mitigated by: (i) ensuring that the Protection Framework remains adequate as confirmed by UNHCR at any time; and (ii) working with the Government to strengthen its data protection regime.


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VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING

Results Framework COUNTRY: Pakistan

Strengthening Institutions for Refugee Administration Project

Project Development Objectives(s)

The Project Development Objective is to improve organizational and institutional capacity for managing refugees and host communities in Pakistan.

Project Development Objective Indicators

RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O

Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1 2 3 4

Improving organizational and institutional capacity for managing refugees and host communities

CCAR and CARs achieve at least, 75 percent of assigned key performance targets (Text)

The CCAR and CARs have no system for measuring performance.

The CCAR and CARs have developed key performance targets.

CCAR and CARs achieve at least 35 percent of assigned key performance targets.




Registered Afghan refugee users of visa facilitation centers report satisfaction with service standards (Percentage)

0.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00

Registered Afghan refugee users of visa facilitation centers report satisfaction with service standards (Female) (Percentage)

0.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00

Registered Afghan refugees 0.00 3,000.00 6,000.00 9,000.00 12,000.00 15,000.00


17

RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O


1 2 3 4

visas applications processed (Number)

Registered Afghan refugees visa applications processed (female) (Percentage)

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Strengthening systems for engagement of refugees and host communities

Improved resolution of complaints of refugees and refugee hosting communities through operationalized complaints handling mechanism(s) (Text)

DLI 1 Formal complaints handling mechanism does not currently exist.

Complaints handling mechanism(s) established.

All four Provincial Commissionerates have notified guidelines for Complaints Handling Mechanism(s).

At least 45 percent of complaints registered by the citizens and refugees in refugee hosting communities resolved within 45 days.



Data on socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities published regularly. (Text)

DLI 6 Some systems for data collection exist but not sufficient.

#1.CCAR has developed tools for collection of data on socio-economic characters of refugees.

#2. (i) the first survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and host communities has been completed using the tools developed by CCAR; and (ii) CCAR has published the data of the survey mentioned in subsection (i).

#3. (i) the second survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and host communities has been completed using the tools developed by CCAR; and (ii)CCAR has published the data of the survey mentioned in subsection (i).

#4. (i) the third survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and host communities has been completed using the tools developed by CCAR; and (ii)CCAR has published the data of the survey mentioned in subsection (i).

#5. (i) the fourth survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities has been completed; and (ii) CCAR has published the data of the fourth survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and host communities.

PDO Table SPACE


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Intermediate Results Indicators by Components

RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO


1 2 3 4

Improving organizational and institutional capacity for managing refugees

Strengthened mechanism for management of information across participating entities (Text)

DLI 2 No automated system for monitoring and evaluating data on refugees.

CCAR jointly with the CAR have defined system specifications and agreed on data integration arrangements.

CCAR (Islamabad) has established a functioning MIS system.

CCAR (Islamabad) and, at least, one (1) provincial CAR has a functioning MIS system.

CCAR (Islamabad) and, at least, two (2) provincial CARs have a functioning MIS system.

CCAR (Islamabad) and, three (3) provincial CARs have a functioning MIS system.

Improved knowledge and skills of professional staff of organizations responsible for refugee management (female) (Text)

DLI 5

There is no requirement for ongoing professional training and no program to support continuous learning.

At least 20 percent of selected professional cohort has completed at least one course in the Refugee Learning Program.

At least 35 percent of selected professional cohort has completed the Refugee Learning Program


At least 65 percent of selected professional cohort has completed at least one course in the Refugee Learning Program


Strengthened staff capacity for managing refugees and implementation of refugee policy (Text)

DLI 4

CCAR and CARs staff capacity is not aligned functions and jobs and job descriptions.

CCAR/CAR department/units reorganized based on the adopted recommendations of the organizational/functional review.

CCAR/CARs has developed core competencies for refugee management and Key Performance Indicators, and Professional Staff (grades 17 and above) are informed.

Skills audit conducted for at least 50 percent of professional staff (grades 17 and above) and staff assigned to relevant units.

Skills audit conducted for 65 percent of professional staff (grades 17 and above) and staff assigned to relevant units.

Skills audit conducted for 70 percent of professional staff (grades 17 and above) and staff assigned to relevant units.

Improved performance of departments responsible for visa issuance (Text)

DLI 3

CCAR does not have adequate organizational capacity to undertake its mandate in a changing refugee protection context.

Functional review and job evaluation completed for CCAR and CARs to identify gaps in structure and functions.

CCAR has prepared new job descriptions for all professional positions

CCAR and CCARs develop and approve a revised departmental organogram

At least 65 percent of CCAR and CARs staff assigned revised job descriptions and assigned to departmental units.

At least 75 percent of CCAR and CARs staff assigned revised job descriptions and departmental units.

Women employed in CCAR and 5.00 7.00 10.00 12.00 15.00 20.00


19

RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO


1 2 3 4

CARs (Percentage)

Strengthening systems for inclusive engagement of host communities

Host communities with functioning complaints handling mechanisms (Percentage)

0.00 15.00 30.00 45.00 60.00 75.00

Women employed in professional positions in the Operations Support Unit to support project implementation (Percentage)

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

Quarterly progress reports submitted within 15 days after the end of the reporting cycle (Number)

0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

IO Table SPACE

UL Table SPACE

Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators

Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Methodology for Data Collection

Responsibility for Data Collection

CCAR and CARs achieve at least, 75 percent of assigned key performance targets

Indicator measures the proportion of key performance targets achieved by CCAR and CARs. These performance targets are developed at the

Semi-Annual

CCAR

Figures are cumulative.

CCAR


20

organizational level and are intended to measure achievement of individual organizational goals agreed by each entity. Targets should be set at the beginning of each Fiscal Year (FY) and reviewed at the end of the FY.

Registered Afghan refugee users of visa facilitation centers report satisfaction with service standards

Indicator measures the level of satisfaction with the services provided by the CAR to Afghan refugees applying for visas. It is expected that in the first few years, satisfaction will be low, but is expected to improve as systems become better. Service standards will be defined during project implementation and placed in prominent places around visa facilitation centers and CAR offices.

Semi Annual

Provincial Commissionerates for Afghan Refugees

Survey of users

CCAR

Registered Afghan refugee users of visa facilitation centers report satisfaction with service standards (Female)

Indicator measures level of satisfaction of female users.

Semi-Annual

Provincial Commissionerates MIS databases

Survey of female users

CCAR

Registered Afghan refugees visas applications processed

Measures the number of registered Afghan refugees

Annual

Immigration and

Review of list of Afghan refugees receiving visas

CCAR


21

whose applications for visas have been received by the CCAR and considered for issuance of visa, and the application submitted to the Ministry of Interior with recommendation for approval. The target is estimated based on number is based on the number of Afghans who repatriated voluntarily between March 1 and October 31, 2019 (i.e. 6,220).

Passports Department

Registered Afghan refugees visa applications processed (female)

Measuring share of women applicants whose visas application are processed. This means that the application for visas have been received by the CCAR and considered for issuance of visa, and the application submitted to the Ministry of Interior for further processing. The estimated target is based on the number of Afghans who repatriated voluntarily between March 1 and October 31, 2019 (i.e. 6,220).

Annual

Passports and Immigration Department

Review of list of visa applicants

CCAR


22

Improved resolution of complaints of refugees and refugee hosting communities through operationalized complaints handling mechanism(s)

This indicator tracks the the performance of Complaints Handling Mechanisms. Complaint is defined as administrative matters within the mandate of the Commissionerates for Afghan Refugees.

Semi-Annual

Data collected from the community based Complaints Handling System

Review of the list of complaints, date of receipt and date of resolution.

CCAR

Data on socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities published regularly.

This indicator tracks the collection and publication of data on socio-economic characteristics of refugees and host communities.

Annual

The CCAR will provide information on the number of surveys conducted with evidence of data collected

Completion reports providing summary statistics

CCAR

ME PDO Table SPACE

Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators

Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Methodology for Data Collection

Responsibility for Data Collection

Strengthened mechanism for management of information across participating entities

This indicator measures the availability of data on refugees through a functional Management

Semi-annual

MIS database

Collecting data from the MIS

CCAR


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Information System (MIS). This indicator will be supported by development of back end systems based on the specifications defined in Year 1.

Improved knowledge and skills of professional staff of organizations responsible for refugee management (female)

Indicator measures female government officials in relevant refugee related departments who have completed the Refugee Learning Program. Participants will be drawn from CCAR, CARs, Ministry of Human Rights, Ministry of Interior and Ministry of SAFRON.

Semi-Annual

CCAR training database

Review of list of training participants

CCAR

Strengthened staff capacity for managing refugees and implementation of refugee policy

Indicators measure the process of reorganizing the CCAR/CAR, mapping their staff to relevant units and monitoring the achievement of KPIs. The target for skill audit is cumulative.

Semi-Annual

CCAR reports

Review of reports provided by CCAR.

CCAR/CARs

Improved performance of departments responsible for visa issuance

This indicator measures steps taken by the CCAR to improve its organizational capacity.

Semi-annual

Reports provided by CCAR.

Review of the report on restructuring, report of staff mapping to job categories and data on achievement of KPIs.

CCAR


24

Women employed in CCAR and CARs Measures combined share of CCAR and CAR employees that are women

Annually

CCAR/CAR HR records

Reports from HR data bases of CCAR and CAR

CCAR and CAR

Host communities with functioning complaints handling mechanisms

This indicator measures the proportion of refugee communities countrywide that have established local level complaint handling mechanisms.

Semi-Annual

Refugee hosting communities

Review of the list describing the host communities and the nature of their Grievance Redress Mechanism

CCAR

Women employed in professional positions in the Operations Support Unit to support project implementation

Measures proportion of professional women employees in the OSU. Targets are cumulative.

Annual

Payroll of the OSU

Review of payroll data and head count of professional women employees

OSU

Quarterly progress reports submitted within 15 days after the end of the reporting cycle

Measures submission of progress reports on a quarterly basis. Each year, at least four reports expected.

Quarterly

OSU

Collection of submitted reports

ME IO Table SPACE

Disbursement Linked Indicators Matrix

DLI_T BL_MATRIX

DLI 1 Improved resolution of the complaints of refugees and refugee hosting communities through operationalized complaints handling mechanisms

Type of DLI Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount

Output No Text 6,000,000.00 15.00

Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula


25

Baseline Formal complaints handling and feed-back process does not currently exist.

FY 20/21 0.00

FY 21/22 #1. At least thirty five percent (35%) of complaints reported by citizens and refugees in refugee hosting communities and villages in Year 2 have been resolved within forty-five (45) days as measured from the date on which such complaints were reported to the respective complaints handling mechanism(s)

1,000,000.00 Scalability: No

FY 22/23 #2. At least fifty percent (50%) of complaints reported by citizens and refugees in refugee hosting communities and villages in Year 3 have been resolved within forty-five (45) days as measured from the date on which such complaints were reported to the respective complaints handling mechanism(s).


FY 23/24 #3. At least sixty five percent (65%) of complaints reported by citizens and refugees in refugee hosting communities and villages in Year 4 have been resolved within forty-five (45) days as measured from the date on which such complaints were reported to the respective complaints handling mechanism(s).

1,500,000.00 Scalability: Yes

FY24/25 #4. At least seventy five percent (75%) of complaints reported by citizens and refugees in

2,000,000.00 Scalability: Yes


26

refugee hosting communities and villages in Year 5 have been resolved within forty-five (45) days as measured from the date on which such complaints were reported to the respective complaints handling mechanism(s).

DLI_T BL_MATRIX

DLI 2 Strengthened mechanism for management of information across participating entities


Output No Text 6,000,000.00 15.00


Baseline No automated system for monitoring and evaluating data on refugees.

FY 20/21 #1. CCAR has functionalized its management information system, which system has generated quarterly monitoring reports for the Year 1 not later than fifteen (15) days after the end of the respective calendar quarter(s).


FY 21/22 #2. CCAR and at least one (1) CAR have functionalized their respective management information systems, which systems have generated quarterly monitoring reports for the Year 2 not later than fifteen (15) days after the end of the respective calendar quarter(s).


FY 22/23 #3. CCAR and at least two (2) CARs have functionalized their respective management information systems, which systems have



27

generated quarterly monitoring reports for the Year 3 not later than fifteen (15) days after the end of the respective calendar quarter(s).

FY 23/24 #4. CCAR and at least three (3) CARs have functionalized their respective management information systems, which systems have generated quarterly monitoring reports for the Year 4 not later than fifteen (15) days after the end of the respective calendar quarter(s).


FY24/25 #5. CCAR and four (4) CARs have functionalized their respective management information systems, which systems have generated quarterly monitoring reports for the Year 5 not later than fifteen (15) days after the end of the respective calendar quarter(s).


DLI_T BL_MATRIX

DLI 3 Improved performance of departments responsible for visa issuance


Process No Text 6,000,000.00 15.00


Baseline CCAR has inadequate organizational capacity to undertake its mandate in a changing refugee protection context.

FY 20/21 0.00


28

FY 21/22 #1. CCAR and CARs have mapped all of their Professional Staff to technical job categories.


FY 22/23 #2. At least forty-five percent (45%) of CCAR’s staff, including those in CARs, have achieved at least seventy five percent (75%) of assigned Key Performance Indicators.


FY 23/24 #3. At least sixty percent (60%) of CCAR’s staff, including those in CARs, have achieved at least seventy five percent (75%) of assigned Key Performance Indicators.


FY24/25 #4. At least seventy five percent (75%) of CCAR’s staff, including those in CARs, have achieved at least seventy five percent (75%) of assigned Key Performance Indicators.


DLI_T BL_MATRIX

DLI 4 Strengthened organizational capacity for managing refugees as per the government policy


Process No Text 6,000,000.00 12.50


Baseline CCAR and CARs do not have organizational performance targets

FY 20/21 0.00

FY 21/22 #1. Recommendations of the legal and policy framework review referred to under



29

subcomponent 2.1 (e) of Schedule 1 have been adopted and implemented.

FY 22/23 #2 CCAR and CARs have achieved at least thirty five percent (35%) of assigned organizational performance targets.


FY 23/24 #3. CCAR and CARs have achieved at least fifty percent (50%) of assigned organizational performance targets.


FY24/25 #4. CCAR and CARs have achieved at least seventy five percent (75%) of assigned organizational performance targets.


DLI_T BL_MATRIX

DLI 5 Improved knowledge and skills of professional staff of organizations responsible for refugee management


Intermediate Outcome No Text 5,000,000.00 12.50


Baseline There is no requirement for ongoing professional training and no program to support continuous learning.

FY 20/21 0.00

FY 21/22 #1. At least thirty five percent (35%) of selected professional cohort has completed the Refugee Learning Program.



30

FY 22/23 #2. At least fifty percent (50%) of selected professional cohort has completed the Refugee Learning Program.


FY 23/24 #3. At least sixty five percent (65%) of selected professional cohort has completed at least one course in the Refugee Learning Program.


FY24/25 #4. At least eighty percent (80%) of selected professional cohort has completed at least one course in the Refugee Learning Program.


DLI_T BL_MATRIX

DLI 6 Data on socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities published regularly


Output No Text 4,000,000.00 15.00


Baseline Some systems for data collection exist but not sufficient.

FY 20/21 0.00

FY 21/22 #1. (i) the first survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities has been completed; (ii) CCAR has published the data of the survey on socio-economic profiles.

1,000,000.00 (i) $500,000 (ii) $500,000

FY 22/23 #2. (i) the second survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting

1,000,000.00 (i) $500,000 (ii) $500,000


31

communities has been completed;(ii) CCAR has published the data of the survey mentioned in subsection (i) above.

FY 23/24 #3. (i) the third survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities has been completed;(ii) CCAR has published the data of the survey mentioned in subsection (i) above.

1,000,000.00 (i) $ 500,000 (ii) $500,000

FY24/25 #4. (i) the fourth survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities has been completed;(ii) CCAR has published the data of the fourth survey of socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities.

1,000,000.00 (i) $500,000 (ii) $500,000

DLI_T BL_MATRIX

DLI 7 Improved implementation arrangements for the visa policy


Output No Text 6,000,000.00 15.00


Baseline The Government has not prepared detailed SOPs for implementing the visa policy.

FY 20/21 0.00

FY 21/22 #1. Up to five (5) outreach sessions on the implementation arrangements for the visa policy have been conducted in the top ten (10) refugee

1,500,000.00 Scalability: Yes. Disbursements prorated per each outreach


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hosting districts.

FY 22/23 #2. Up to additional five (5) outreach sessions on the implementation arrangements for the visa policy have been conducted in the top ten (10) refugee hosting districts.

1,500,000.00 Scalability: Yes. Disbursements prorated per each outreach s

FY 23/24 #3. NADRA has provided access to the registered refugee database to the CCAR to improve functionality for implementation of the visa policy.


FY24/25 #4. SAFRON has conducted a review of implementation of the visa policy.


Verification Protocol Table: Disbursement Linked Indicators

DLI 1 Improved resolution of the complaints of refugees and refugee hosting communities through operationalized complaints handling mechanisms

Description This DLI tracks the GoP's effort to create systems for handling complaints reported by refugees and host communities.

Data source/ Agency SAFRON/CCAR/CARs

Verification Entity Third Party Verification Agent

Procedure Review of the database on grievances provided by CCAR


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DLI 2 Strengthened mechanism for management of information across participating entities

Description This DLI tracks the Government's efforts in establishing and managing a MIS to maintain a database on refugees.

Data source/ Agency SAFRON/CCAR/CARs


Procedure Assessment of each of the key facilities identified and reports regarding timeliness of visa issuance.

DLI 3 Improved performance of departments responsible for visa issuance

Description This DLI measures steps taken by the CCAR/CARs to improve organizational capacity.

Data source/ Agency UNHCR/Ministry of Interior/CCAR/SAFRON


Procedure Review of the report on restructuring, report of staff mapping to job categories and data on achievement of KPIs.

DLI 4 Strengthened organizational capacity for managing refugees as per the government policy

Description The DLI measures Government's efforts to reorganize CCAR/CARs

Data source/ Agency CCAR


Procedure Review of the report on skills audit, report of staff mapping to relevant units and data on achievement of KPIs.

DLI 5 Improved knowledge and skills of professional staff of organizations responsible for refugee management

Description This DLI tracks the effort of the GoP to build the capacity to perform core functions related to refugee management


34

Data source/ Agency CCAR


Procedure

The TPVA will review evidence in support of every Disbursement Linked Results based on evidence provided by the CCAR to

confirm progress on each DLR per year.

DLI 6 Data on socio-economic characteristics of refugees and refugee hosting communities published regularly

Description This DLI tracks the GoP's effort to create systems for collecting and maintaining a database on socio economic

characteristics of refugees and host communities.

Data source/ Agency CCAR/CARs


Procedure Review of each of the available evidence provided by CCAR for each of the DLR.

DLI 7 Improved implementation arrangements for the visa policy

Description This DLI supports Government's effort to implement the visa policy.

Data source/ Agency Ministry of Interior/SAFRON/CCARs


Procedure Review of the actual SoPs and detailed implementation plan provided by Government authorities.


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ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan

1. The Ministry for States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON) is the implementing agency, and the CCAR will manage day-to-day implementation of the Project under the Chief Commissioner of the CCAR.

• Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee (IMSC). The IMSC, an inter-ministerial committee chaired by the Secretary for SAFRON, will provide overall strategic direction on the activities supported by this project. SC members will be drawn from key participating ministries and agencies. The SC will meet semiannually to review the progress of Project implementation and the status of related policies.

• Interprovincial working group (IPWG). This working group will be a forum where CARs can review progress under the guidance of the Chief Commissioner, who will chair the group. The OSU will be the Secretariat of the IPWG

• Operations Support Unit (OSU). The OSU will be responsible for the day-to-day management of the Project. The Project Coordinator will be supported by senior technical personnel responsible for each of the two components, with occasional technical assistance supported by the Project. Additional staff will include specialists in procurement, communications, financial management, and monitoring and evaluation. The coordinator will be responsible for consolidating the annual work plans and budgets, the midterm review, and assessment reports for the two components; ensuring the work is properly scheduled across components; and convening Project team meetings to review progress toward the agreed milestones and indicators. The PC will report to the Chief Commissioner.

2. This Project will require intensive supervision throughout its implementation to ensure enough attention to each of the components and related activities. A Country Office based task team leader (TTL) will provide regular implementation support, including joining missions with the UNHCR and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) staff who are actively engaged in supporting refugee management in partnership with the GoP. Two standard missions will be undertaken during the first year of implementation, in addition to ongoing support by the TTL. In the second and third year, it is expected that the implementing agency will have strengthened internal capacity to support implementation, and Project implementation will have taken off. Again, two implementation support missions are expected for each year. To ensure the uptake of Project activities, it is envisaged that specialized technical expertise will be embedded in the implementing agency to provide support in strategic areas such as human resource management, financial management, procurement, management information systems, and communications.

Financial Management

3. For the Project’s FM staffing arrangements, a qualified financial management specialist (FMS) will be hired or deputized/seconded from the office of the Controller General of Accounts, using terms of reference (TOR) acceptable to the Bank. The FMS will be supported by a finance officer, who will be hired or deputized from the office of the Controller General of Accounts within three months after Project effectiveness, using TOR


36

acceptable to the Bank. The FMS and finance officer will form the Project FM team and will be responsible for carrying out day-to-day FM activities and other responsibilities that the Project Coordinator may assign.

4. The CCAR prepares its budgets in accordance with the Federal Government’s budgeting rules and regulations, which will also be followed for the Project’s budgeting. Each year, CCAR will prepare the budget for the Project in accordance with the Federal Government’s budgeting rules and regulations. The budget will be reflected in the PSDP. A unique Cost Centre Number/DDO Code will be assigned by the Finance Division in the Budget Book. The FMS will be responsible for preparing the Project’s budget, in close coordination with the Project’s operational/technical team. For monitoring the implementation of the budget, the FMS will prepare budget monitoring sheets that will include analysis of the financial performance against annual work plan targets and budgets. The FMS will maintain separate books of accounts for the activities executed under the Project. Books of accounts will be prepared in accordance with the country accounting procedures and policies defined in the New Accounting Model. The Project reports and financial statements will identify the uses of funds according to the defined expenditure under the Project components.

5. Pakistan’s Federal Government has a robust internal control framework: The General Financial Rules, Fundamental Rules, Supplementary Rules, Federal Treasury Rules, System of Financial Control and Budgeting (September 2006), Accounting Policies and Procedures Manual, and other regulations, instructions, and orders issued by the Finance Division and AGPR. The internal control framework includes a comprehensive set of preventive, detective, and corrective controls for different processes and transactions. It includes segregation of duties, review and approval of transactions, and safeguarding of assets. Project expenditures will be subject to these internal control procedures: the FMS will comply with the internal control framework and will (i) conduct pre-audit of all Project transactions, and (ii) submit vouchers to CCAR for approval of payment.

6. Internal audit is being conducted by the Assistant Director (Accounts), SAFRON Division. However, internal audit reports are not generated. Internal audit activity is limited to review of transactions (mainly employee-related expenses), and the International Standards for the Professional Practice of Internal Auditing are not used. The Project will support the strengthening of internal audit practices within CCAR, and the scope of work will also cover donor-funded activities. Quarterly internal audit reports on Project-related activities will be submitted to Secretary SAFRON, with copies provided to the Bank. The Project will develop and implement a capacity-strengthening plan.

7. The Office of the AGP will conduct the annual audit of the Project. The Directorate General Audit (Federal Government), as representative of AGP, will carry out the audit of the Project in accordance with the ToR that have been agreed between the Bank and AGP. The audit will include physical verification of assets procured from the Project proceeds. For each fiscal year closing on June 30, acceptable audited financial statements, along with a Management Letter, will be submitted to the Bank by December 31—that is, within six months after the close of the fiscal year. There are no overdue audit reports and no overdue ineligible expenditures in respect of SAFRON.


37

Disbursement Arrangements

8. Table 4 summarizes the Project’s disbursement arrangements.

Table 4: Disbursement arrangements

Disbursement categories Amount of IDA grant

(US$ million)

Amount of IDA credit

(US$ million)

% of expenditure to be financed

Disbursement cycle

(1) Eligible expenditure programs (EEPs) 10.84 29.16 100

Annual: Reimbursement of eligible expenditure based on certification of DLIs achieved and expenditure reported in IFRs

(2) Goods, non-consulting services, consultants’ services, works, incremental operating costs, and training and workshops related to Project.

10.0 0.0 100 Semester: Advance to the DA equivalent to 6 months forecast.

TOTAL 20.84 29.16

Note: The financing includes duties and taxes.

9. Under Category 1:Upon achievement of DLIs, disbursements up to the value of DLIs will be made by way of reimbursement to the Government against the recurrent expenditures incurred by SAFRON and Interior, and Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in the selected budget lines of A01, A03, and A13 (EEPs)). The expenditures incurred by the Government should be equal to, or more than the value of DLIs to qualify for a full disbursement upon achievement of DLIs. Up to an amount not to exceed twenty-five (25) percent of the Credit and Grant amounts will be available as advance over the duration of the Project for expenditures or inputs against Eligible Expenditure Programs (EEPs), but prior to the DLRs having been met. Funds will be disbursed to the Federal Government’s Consolidated Fund Account 1 - Non-Food on achievement of the targeted results under DLIs. Implementing entities will request additional budget allocations from Ministry of Finance (MoF) through standard budget allocation processes. The MoF will then allocate and release in the existing budget lines of the implementing entities, which will increase due to such disbursements by the Project. The overall EEPs of is estimated at US$ 216 million for five years. EEPs are separately identifiable in the FMIS under the respective codes (Table 5).

Table 5: Relevant eligible expenditure programs

Account Code

Expenditure item FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 Total

US$ millions

A01 Employee-related expenses

19.9

21.9

24.1

26.5

29.2

121.64

A03 Operating expenses

15.1

16.7

18.3

20.2

22.2

92.43

A13 Repairs and maintenance

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

1.59

Total EEPs 35.32

38.86

42.74

47.02

51.72

215.65


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10. Under Category 2, a segregated Designated Account (DA) in US dollars will be established at the National Bank of Pakistan for receipt of funds from the Bank. The DA will be operated by the FMS in accordance with the provisions of the Finance Division’s “Revised Accounting Procedure for Revolving Fund Account (Foreign Aid Assignment Account),” dated August 2, 2013. Disbursements will be report-based: an advance equivalent to six months forecast will be provided to the DA, and expenditures will be documented in the subsequent bi-annual IUFRs. The IUFRs will also provide a forecast for the following six months, on the basis of which the amount of funds to be disbursed will be determined. Further details regarding disbursements will be provided in the Disbursement Letter. The CCAR would also have access to Bank proceeds through a direct payment method of disbursement.

Procurement

11. The implementing agency will establish a dedicated Procurement Committee to serve as the review body for procurement documents and bid evaluation recommendations developed by the Project procurement specialist. The committee members will be drawn from the CCAR and other departments to mitigate previous issues relating to slow procurement decision-making. Project funds will be used to strengthen the CCAR’s capacity in procurement by hiring procurement staff as part of the OSU. The Bank will conduct training sessions to mitigate risks identified in the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD).

12. The procurement profile is summarized in table below. The profile includes procurement of Goods and Consulting Services. No Works procurements are envisaged under the Project within the first 18 months of implementation. Some Works procurements would be added upon completion of the value chain studies. The PPSD will be updated accordingly.

Table 6: Summary procurement profile

Activity Category Estimated cost

(USD)

Procurement

arrangement

IT Equipment (ICT)

(CCAR, PMU) Goods 864,117

Request for Bids

(National)

Office Equipment/Supply


Request for Bids

(National)

Vehicles


Request for Bids

(National)


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ANNEX 2: Economic Analysis

1. The Project will unlock refugees’ true potential contributions. Afghan refugees have the potential contribute to Pakistan’s economy, but their contribution is limited because they have little or no access to formal financial and labor markets. This Project will help open Afghan refugees’ potential economic contribution and enhance access to better livelihood opportunities. Thus, the benefits of the Project—which cannot be assessed quantitatively ex ante—are expected to accrue in terms of overall systemic improvement in equity, efficiency, and shared prosperity (Table 7). Such results are typical of institutional reform projects of this kind, for which evidence of impact is less quantifiable and inferences about impact are more theoretical than empirical.11

2. However, experience from similar projects indicates potential for economic and social benefits from the proposed institutional reforms. The Afghanistan’s EZ-KAR Project (P166127) whose component 1 is identical to this Project expects broad “positive economic impacts” for the Project, without quantifiable rates of return due to the nature of the interventions (p.63). Similarly, Moldova’s Modernization of Government Services (P148537) also projected increased economic benefits arising from organizational reforms such as the introduction of service delivery standards, performance monitoring, citizen feedback, outreach and data security, the same activities supported by this Project (p. 65). The Project will also support building capacity to implement reforms and ensure sustainability. The Project addresses the inadequacy of institutional and organizational capacity for sustainable management of refugees. Gains from capacity building activities will sustain Project benefits to refugees and host populations

Table 7: Economic and social benefits

Indicator Economy-wide dynamics

i. Improved Labor/Firm Productivity

• Labor productivity increases as refugees gain access to formal financial and labor markets;

• Integration into formal economy likely induces many to acquire vocational skills, and raises labor productivity;

• Increased refugees labor productivity encourages a segment of the host population to upgrade their productivity and move to higher paying occupations;

• With permission to own businesses, high-skilled refugee business owners raise the firm-level productivity in the country.

ii. Increased Purchasing Power

Higher productivity means increased purchasing power of the refugees which translates to:

• Increased consumer spending on goods and services, benefiting businesses owned by host community (a multiplier effect)

• Increased employment opportunities in the sectors producing goods and services for final consumption (mostly in labor intensive/low skilled enterprises);

• Refugee business owners, while this will be a relatively small number at the start, also contribute to the economy as employers, and commercial buyers and suppliers, thereby further raising the purchasing power of the population

iii. Improved Standard of Living

• Higher dignity and workplace protection from a greater security together with increased incomes there will be an increase in the standards of living of refugees

iv. Improved Fiscal Contribution

• As refugees integrate into the formal economy, their fiscal contribution improves in the form of tax payments both as employees and employers

• The more integrated into the formal economy, the greater their fiscal contribution will be and their net fiscal impact on the local economy will become positive.

11 World Bank. 2014. Guidance Note on Economic Analysis. Washington, DC: World Bank.

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