Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in ... · estimates and projections of dementia...

Projections of dementia prevalence and

incidence in Victoria 2010 – 2050:

Department of Health Regions and

Statistical Local Areas

10 May 2010

Report by Access Economics Pty Limited for

Alzheimer's Australia Vic

Department of Health Regions and Statistical Local Areas

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document and any attachments, the uncertain nature of

economic data, forecasting and analysis means that Access Economics Pty Limited is unable to make any warranties in relation to

the information contained herein. Access Economics Pty Limited, its employees and agents disclaim liability for any loss or damage

which may arise as a consequence of any person relying on the information contained in this document and any attachments.

Contents

1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 1

2 Modelling methodology ...................................................................................................... 2

3 Dementia projections by Victorian Department of Health Regions ................................... 5

4 Mapping of dementia prevalence ..................................................................................... 87

Appendix A .................................................................................................................................. 94

References ................................................................................................................................... 98

Acknowledgements

This publication is supported by funding from the Australian and Victorian Governments under

the HACC program.


i

Executive Summary

Australia is currently facing a dementia epidemic. The prevalence of dementia is expected to

increase from 257,000 Australians in 2010 to over 1.1 million in 2050 (Access Economics,

2009). This growth will primarily be driven by increased population numbers and demographic

ageing, although modifiable risk factors (such as a reduction in physical activity) will also play a

part.

In line with the projected increase in dementia prevalence, there will be a corresponding

increase in demand for dementia care services. Our modelling has found that on the basis of

current policy settings, there will be shortages in the supply of care for people with dementia

(Access Economics 2009a). Thus planning a policy response now, to accommodate demand for

services in the future, is essential for delivering cost effective and appropriate dementia care in

Victoria.

Access Economics has been commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic to provide up-to-date

estimates and projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria. Using updated

age and gender specific prevalence rates derived from a recent study for Alzheimer’s Australia

(Access Economics 2009), and population projections using our in-house demographic model

(AE-DEM), dementia prevalence and incidence has been estimated for 2010 and projected to

2050 for Victorian Department of Health regions and Statistical Local Areas (SLAs).

The data on dementia presented in this report does not include data on Aboriginal and Torres

Strait Islander (ATSI) populations and data on Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD)

populations. The reason for this is that data for these populations is unreliable due to small

numbers and the different methodological and definitional issues associated with analysing

small numbers at the LGA level. However, the report by Access Economics (2009) estimated

that by 2050, there would be a 3.2 fold increase in the number of CALD people with dementia.

This estimate is 39,800 (37,500-41,000).

It should be noted that the overall prevalence estimates in this report differ from those in

Access Economics (2009) due to subsequent changes to population estimates. These changes

arise from mortality and annual migration updates, which alter the age distribution and total

numbers in the population projections, both in the near and distant future. All the age-gender

prevalence rates in this report are the same as in Access Economics (2009).

Summary of results

It is estimated that there are almost 66,000 people with dementia in Victoria in 2010, which is

projected to rise to 246,000 people by 2050. This represents a 275% growth in prevalent cases

between 2010 and 2050. Similarly, it is estimated that there are approximately 20,000 new

cases of dementia in Victoria in 2010. Incidence is projected to increase by 400%, reaching

94,000 by 2050. Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria are shown in

Chart i.


ii

Chart i: Dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria

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Source: Access Economics calculations.

For each decade between 2010 and 2050, the prevalence of dementia is expected to increase

at a faster rate than those aged 70 years and older in Victoria. The most rapid growth in

dementia prevalence is expected in the next decade from 2010 to 2020 with around 50%

growth projected. Table ii shows the projected growth in dementia prevalence and the 70

years and older Victorian population.

Table ii: Percentage change in dementia prevalence and 70+ population per decade in Vic

2010-20 2020-30 2030-2040 2040-2050

age 70+ in Victoria 40% 35% 24% 15%

dementia prevalence 50% 44% 38% 26%


Both dementia prevalence and incidence is higher in the metropolitan Victorian Department of

Health (DoH) regions than in the non-metropolitan DoH regions. The regions are illustrated in

Figure i.

Figure i: Map of Victorian Health Regions

Source: State Government of Victoria, Australia, Department of Human Services.


iii

In 2010, the Southern metropolitan region ranked the highest in terms of dementia prevalence

and incidence out of the eight DoH regions, with around 16,000 prevalent cases of dementia

and 4,800 new cases. Between 2010 and 2050, the three metropolitan regions are expected to

have the most growth in dementia prevalence and incidence. By 2050, amongst the DoH

regions, the North and West Metropolitan Region is expected to rank first in both dementia

prevalence and incidence. It is expected that in 2050 the North and West Metropolitan Region

will have a dementia prevalence of around 65,000 cases and incidence of over 24,000 cases

after experiencing a growth of nearly 49,000 additional cases of dementia and 20,000

additional new cases of dementia from 2010.

Between 2010 and 2050 dementia prevalence in the eight DoH regions is expected to increase

on average by around 280%. In terms of percentage growth, the DoH regions expected to

experience the greatest increase in dementia prevalence are the North and West metropolitan

region and the Gippsland region at around 300%, while the DoH region expected to experience

the least increase, is the Eastern metropolitan region at around 240%.

Between 2010 and 2050, the incidence of dementia in the eight DoH regions is expected to

increase on average by around 390%. The DoH region expected to experience the greatest

increase in dementia incidence is the Gippsland region at around 440%, while the DoH region

expected to experience the least increase is the Eastern metropolitan region at around 340%.

Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria by DoH regions are shown in

Chart ii.

Chart ii: Dementia prevalence and incidence, by Department of Health regions

Source: Access Economics calculations. EM= Eastern Metropolitan, NWM= North &West Metropolitan, SM=

Southern Metropolitan, BSW= Barwon South Western, Gip=Gippsland, Gra=Grampians, Hum= Hume, LM=Loddon

Mallee.

Local Government Areas (LGAs) within the metropolitan DoH regions dominate the top 10

ranking by prevalence in 2010 through to 2050. In terms of growth, it is projected that Greater

Geelong (Barwon- South Western Region) will grow from around 3,300 people with dementia

in 2010 to around 13,000 people in 2050. This makes Greater Geelong the LGA with the

highest growth in dementia cases expected in the coming 40 years, and thus consistently being

ranked first in terms of dementia prevalence. Chart iii shows top 10 LGA ranking by dementia

prevalence in 2010, 2030 and 2050.

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v

Growth in the 80 metropolitan SLAs is expected to increase on average by around 360%

between 2010 and 2050. Within these 80 metropolitan SLAs, the estimates for the number of

people with dementia for Manningham West are consistently ranked the highest for the years

2010, 2030 and 2050 with estimates of around 1,600, 3,500 and 5,900 cases, respectively. The

ranking of the SLAs in the top 10 with the lowest number of dementia cases changes from

Bayside-South in 2010 with 964 cases, Banyule-Heidelberg in 2030 with 1947 cases and

Greater Dandenong-Bal in 2050 with 3569 cases. Chart iv outlines the top 10 metro SLAs in

2010, 2030 and 2050.

Chart iv: Dementia prevalence, by top 10 metropolitan SLAs

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vi

Out of the 129 SLAs within the five non-metropolitan DoH regions, South Barwon – Inner

consistently ranks the highest in terms of the number of people with dementia. For the years

2010, 2030 and 2050, the dementia prevalence estimate is around 900, 2,200 and 4,100 cases,

respectively. This represents a growth of around 3,200 cases over the next 40 years, making

South Barwon - Inner the SLA with the highest growth in terms of absolute numbers. Growth

in the 129 SLAs is expected to increase on average by around 270% between 2010 and 2050.

During this period, the SLA expected to experience the greatest increase is Latrobe - Balanced

at 975%, while the SLA expected to experience the least increase is Mount Baw Baw Alpine

Resort at a negative increase. Chart v outlines the top 10 non-metro SLAs in 2010, 2030 and

2050.

Chart v: Dementia prevalence, by top 10 non-metropolitan SLAs

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vii

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Overall, dementia prevalence is concentrated in the metropolitan regions of Victoria.

However, because older people tend to live outside cities, the prevalence is also high in a

number of non-metropolitan regions – particularly the Barwon South Western health region

which contributes three of the top four dementia prevalence SLAs by 2050.

Victoria has approximately 66,000 people living with dementia in 2010 which is projected to

rise to 123,000 in 2030 and 246,000 by 2050. In 2010, approximately 45,000 people with

dementia (69%) are estimated to live in the three metropolitan DoH regions, while 21,000

people with dementia (31%) live in the five non-metropolitan DoH regions. Projections

suggest that dementia prevalence cases in metropolitan DoH regions will approach 97,000

cases in 2030 and 168,000 cases by 2050. In non-metropolitan DoH regions, the approximate

number of prevalence cases will increase to 45,000 in 2030 and 80,000 in 2050.


1

1 Background

Access Economics has completed a number of projects detailing the impact of dementia in

Australia. More recently, Access Economics (2009) provided dementia prevalence and

incidence estimates and projections for 2009 to 2050 to Alzheimer’s Australia, based on

updated population and prevalence rates, and expected trends in physical inactivity. The

report found that dementia prevalence will be greater than first thought, with projections for

the year 2050 increasing to 1.13 million (from 731,000 previously estimated in 2005).

The year 2010 is significant in Victoria’s demographic ageing. It represents the first year that

the baby boomers start turning 65 years of age. The baby boomer bulge is on the cusp of

working its way through those age brackets that are at greater risk of dementia. This is the

main driving factor in the expected increase in dementia prevalence and incidence.

However, there will be an uneven ageing distribution across regions within Victoria, with

younger people expected to generally be located in Melbourne and other metropolitan regions

and older people be located outside these areas. Older adults also represent a growing

proportion of the population living outside the Melbourne metro region.

Dementia remains a growing concern for health and aged care service providers. Combined

with Australia’s and Victoria’s ageing population, the number of people with modifiable

dementia risk factors continues to increase in Australia. For example, diabetes mellitus is

known to increase the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia. Obesity is a risk

factor for vascular dementia through its effect on coronary heart disease and stroke, while

physical inactivity has also been linked to an increase in dementia through its impact on

cardiovascular disease, stroke, and Type 2 diabetes (DoHA 2006; DCRC 2007). The Australian

Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has noted significant increases, over the past decade,

in the number of people with these risk factors. The AIHW expects that this trend will

continue into the near future (AIHW, 2008).

This report identifies the key areas in Victoria that are expected to experience the greatest

increase in dementia cases. This research can then be used to assist government agencies in

planning future dementia services, with the aim of improving the quality of life for all people in

Victoria living with dementia, including their families and carers.


2

2 Modelling methodology

The methodology used to estimate and project dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria

was based on population growth, demographic ageing and projected changes in physical

inactivity, a known modifiable risk factor for dementia.

Age and gender specific prevalence rates were derived from a recent study for Alzheimer’s

Australia (Access Economics 2009). In the study, dementia prevalence rates were estimated by

age and gender using a combination of published international epidemiological studies and

meta-analyses. The studies used for each age bracket are outlined below.

■ Age brackets 0 to 59 years: a weighted average for the entire population was calculated

using five year age bracket prevalence rates derived from Harvey et al (2003).

■ Age brackets between 60 and 79 years: previous prevalence rates used in Access

Economics (2005, 2006) were used.

■ Age brackets between 80 and 89 years: a weighted average of prevalence rates found in

Access Economics (2005, 2006) and Lucca et al (2009) were used, with the former

receiving three times as much weight as the latter.

■ Age brackets 90 years and above: a weighted average of prevalence rates was

calculated using rates found in Access Economics (2005, 2006), Lucca et al (2009), and

Corrada et al (2008). An average prevalence rate was calculated using the latter two

studies and this average was given an equal weighting with the prevalence rates from

Access Economics (2005, 2006).

Estimated prevalence rates are shown in Chart 2.1. Dementia prevalence rates are relatively

low below the age of 60 years. Once a person ages beyond 60 years, the risk of developing

dementia increases exponentially. For example, between the ages of 60 and 64 years around

1.2% of males and 0.6% of females will have dementia. Between the age of 70 and 74 years

prevalence rates increase to 3.5% and 3.3% respectively. By the age of 80 to 84 years,

prevalence rates are around 12.1% for males and 12.9% for females, while for those 95 years

and older, 37.2% of males and 47.3% of females are expected to have dementia.


3

Chart 2.1: Estimated dementia prevalence rates in Victoria


To estimate total dementia prevalence in Victoria, age and gender prevalence rates were

applied to population estimates and projections. In addition, adjustments to dementia

prevalence rates were made for expected changes in physical inactivity using an attributable

fraction outlined in Jekel et al (2001) and physical activity trends derived from the ABS (2006).

To estimate dementia prevalence in each region, the dementia prevalence in Victoria was split

using the population concordances.

The number of incidence cases in Victoria was calculated in previous Access Economics reports

by using a simple disease model similar to that used by the World Health Organization (Figure

2.1).

Figure 2.1: Simple disease model used to estimate dementia incidence

Susceptibles

Cases

Deaths from general mortality

Cause-specific deaths

i r

m

f

m

Susceptibles

Cases

Deaths from general mortality

Cause-specific deaths

i r

m

f

m


4

where: i - incidence rate (new cases of dementia);

r - remission rate (which equals zero is this case);

m - natural mortality rate in the population;

f - case fatality rate, or mortality as a direct result of dementia;

cases - existing people with dementia; and

susceptible - people in the population that do not have dementia. Source: Barendregt (2004)

Natural mortality rates used in the model were taken from the Access Economics demographic

model (AE-Dem). The number of people susceptible to dementia was calculated as the current

population less prevalent cases (by age group and gender), while case fatality rates were

calculated from the relative risk of mortality for people with dementia (Table 2.2).

Table 2.2: Relative risk of mortality associated with dementia

Males Females

0-59 158.9 309.2

60-64 9.8 25.5

65-69 3.6 12.0

70-74 6.2 10.7

75-79 5.8 8.9

80-84 3.8 5.3

85-89 2.6 2.9

90-94 2.2 2.2

95+ 2.0 1.7

Source: Access Economics (from modelling for the evaluation of the National Dementia Priority Initiative and

DISMOD II)

The incidence rate of dementia from 2010 to 2050 was estimated using DISMOD based on

prevalence of risk factors such as physical inactivity as well as minor compositional effects

from demographic change by cohort over time.

Population estimates and projections were undertaken at Victorian Health Regions and

Statistical Local Areas (SLA) levels using the AE-DEM model, an in-house demographic model

based on the 2006 national census undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The population was estimated for 2010 and projected to 2050 by age and gender, building up

from the demographic ‘first principles’ of births, deaths, migration and household formation.

Two concordances were used to split prevalence and incidence by Victorian Department of

Health regions and SLAs. For Health regions, concordance SLAs were first aggregated into

Local Government Areas (LGA) and subsequently into Department of Health Regions, based on

maps provided by the Victorian Department of Health website, as suggested by Alzheimer’s

Australia Vic. For SLAs, the latest concordance from the ABS was used.


5

3 Dementia projections by Victorian Department of Health

Regions

Our prevalence estimate shows that there are around 66,000 people with dementia in Victoria

in 2010. If this estimate is projected to 2050, the number of prevalent cases of dementia will

exceed 246,000 people. This represents an increase of around 280%. Chart 3.1 shows the

prevalence projections over each decade from 2010 to 2050.

The majority of people with dementia reside within metropolitan DoH regions. In 2010,

approximately 45,000 people with dementia (69%) are estimated to live in the three

metropolitan DoH regions, while 21,000 people with dementia (31%) live in the five non-

metropolitan DoH regions. Projections suggest that dementia prevalent cases will approach

168,000 people in metropolitan DoH regions and 80,000 in non-metropolitan DoH regions in

2050.

Chart 3.1: Dementia prevalence in Victoria

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Dementia prevalence is expected to grow substantially throughout each DoH region. In 2010,

the DoH metropolitan regions with the highest number of people with dementia are estimated

to be the North and West Metropolitan regions and the Southern Metropolitan region, both at

around 16,000 cases. By 2050, the DoH metropolitan region with the highest number of

people with dementia is North and West Metropolitan region, with just under 65,000 cases.

For non-metropolitan regions in 2010, the region with the highest number of people with

dementia is estimated to be the Barwon-South Western region, with around 5,500 cases.

Barwon-South Western region is projected to remain first in prevalence ranking in 2050, from

the five non-metropolitan DoH regions, with 20,000 cases.


6

A summary of dementia prevalence cases in 2010 and 2050 by DoH regions is illustrated in

Chart 3.2, while more detailed prevalence and incidence projections are given in Table 3.3 to

Table 3.76.

Chart 3.2: Dementia prevalence in 2010 and 2050, by Department of Health

Metropolitan/Non-Metropolitan Regions

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Local Government Areas within the metropolitan DoH regions dominate the top 10 ranking by

prevalence in 2010 through to 2050. It is projected that Greater Geelong (Barwon- South

Western Region) will experience the highest growth in absolute numbers from around 3,300

people with dementia in 2010 to around 13,000 people in 2050. With this growth, it is

expected that Greater Geelong will consistently rank first out of all LGAs in terms of dementia

prevalence from 2010 to 2050. Chart 3.3 shows top 10 LGA ranking by dementia prevalence in

2010, 2030 and 2050. Table 3.2 shows dementia prevalence ranking by LGA for years 2010,

2030 and 2050.

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8

Table 3.2: Dementia prevalence ranking by LGAs 2010, 2030 and 2050

LGA 2010 2030 2050

LGA People Rank People Rank People Rank

Alpine 218 62 409 64 644 67

Ararat 203 66 408 65 739 63

Ballarat 1,295 22 2,891 22 5,233 19

Banyule 1,808 10 3,524 13 6,035 12

Bass Coast 567 38 1,242 40 2,233 41

Baw Baw 560 39 1,420 36 2,688 36

Bayside 1,694 11 2,752 25 4,459 27

Benalla 268 58 486 58 729 64

Boroondara 2,454 4 4,032 6 6,460 7

Brimbank 1,633 15 4,078 5 7,356 5

Buloke 154 72 270 72 454 72

Campaspe 609 35 1,306 39 2,345 38

Cardinia 582 37 2,190 29 4,559 26

Casey 1,668 14 5,119 3 9,677 3

Central Goldfields 262 60 472 61 765 60

Colac-Otway 337 48 644 53 1,111 51

Corangamite 276 57 538 57 920 56

Darebin 2,000 8 3,540 10 5,591 17

East Gippsland 772 30 1,836 31 3,344 32

Frankston 1,511 17 3,331 15 5,831 14

Gannawarra 217 63 413 63 726 65

Glen Eira 2,176 6 3,339 14 5,090 21

Glenelg 305 52 622 54 1,028 54

Golden Plains 119 75 389 68 746 62

Greater Bendigo 1,402 20 3,281 16 6,102 10

Greater Dandenong 1,678 12 3,734 8 6,556 6

Greater Geelong 3,257 1 7,016 1 12,552 1

Greater Shepparton 799 29 1,790 34 3,118 34

Hepburn 230 61 464 62 803 59

Hindmarsh 163 71 255 73 376 73

Hobsons Bay 1,086 25 2,261 28 3,862 29

Horsham 315 50 661 51 1,093 52

Hume 1,094 24 3,268 18 5,938 13

Indigo 188 68 407 66 643 68

Kingston 1,838 9 3,278 17 5,103 20

Knox 1,506 18 3,535 11 6,081 11

Latrobe 922 27 1,993 30 3,398 31

Loddon 132 73 207 77 301 78

Macedon Ranges 423 45 1,123 43 2,063 42

Manningham 1,668 13 3,755 7 6,350 8

Continued next page


9

Table 3.2: Dementia prevalence ranking by LGAs 2010, 2030 and 2050 continued

2010 2030 2050

LGA People Rank People Rank People Rank

Mansfield 111 77 291 71 570 70

Maribyrnong 762 31 1,242 41 2,020 43

Maroondah 1,254 23 2,812 24 4,688 25

Melbourne 519 41 1,827 32 3,856 30

Melton 532 40 2,408 27 4,962 22

Mildura 724 33 1,593 35 2,883 35

Mitchell 292 54 863 47 1,649 45

Moira 509 42 1,105 44 1,920 44

Monash 2,516 3 4,929 4 8,405 4

Moonee Valley 1,555 16 2,939 21 4,838 23

Moorabool 284 56 788 48 1,499 47

Moreland 2,097 7 3,119 20 4,259 28

Mornington P'sula 2,601 2 5,716 2 10,018 2

Mount Alexander 312 51 604 55 1,026 55

Moyne 213 65 397 67 651 66

Murrindindi 201 67 485 60 869 58

Nillumbik 423 46 1,217 42 2,343 39

Northern Grampians 215 64 367 69 605 69

Port Phillip 885 28 1,819 33 3,272 33

Pyrenees 117 76 231 75 355 75

Queenscliffe 108 78 182 78 302 77

South Gippsland 424 43 890 45 1,532 46

Southern Grampians 315 49 568 56 880 57

Stonnington 1,366 21 2,705 26 4,732 24

Strathbogie 188 69 346 70 566 71

Surf Coast 302 53 758 50 1,377 49

Swan Hill 264 59 486 59 761 61

Towong 122 74 216 76 326 76

Unincorporated Vic 3 80 3 80 3 80

Wangaratta 406 47 767 49 1,188 50

Warrnambool 424 44 864 46 1,473 48

Wellington 592 36 1,318 38 2,269 40

West Wimmera 78 79 129 79 197 79

Whitehorse 2,233 5 3,673 9 5,748 15

Whittlesea 1,058 26 3,244 19 5,705 16

Wodonga 289 55 660 52 1,060 53

Wyndham 745 32 2,812 23 5,386 18

Yarra 655 34 1,355 37 2,396 37

Yarra Ranges 1,422 19 3,535 12 6,330 9

Yarriambiack 164 70 248 74 373 74



10

The prevalence of dementia is expected to grow substantially within each SLA. Within

metropolitan DoH regions, Manningham West ranks consistently as the SLA with the highest

number of people with dementia in 2010, 2030 and 2050, at around 1,600, 3,500 and 6,000

cases of dementia respectively. Chart 3.4 shows dementia prevalence ranking by metropolitan

SLA for years 2010, 2030 and 2050.

Chart 3.4: Dementia prevalence, by top 10 metropolitan SLAs

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000M

an

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am

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2010

0

1,000

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6,000

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11

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Ma

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-W

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2050


Out of the non-metropolitan SLAs, South Barwon - Inner ranks consistently as the SLA with the

highest number of people with dementia in 2010, 2030 and 2050, at around 900, 2,200 and

4,100 cases respectively. Chart 3.5Chart 3.4 shows dementia prevalence ranking by non-

metropolitan SLA for years 2010, 2030 and 2050.

Chart 3.5: Dementia prevalence, by top 10 non-metropolitan SLAs

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

S B

arw

on

-In

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Co

rio

-In

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Gr.

Be

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-In

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r E

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Baw

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t B

W

War

rnam

bo

ol

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De

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Sta

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12

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

S Barwon - Inner

Corio - Inner

Gr. Geelong - Pt B

Mildura - Pt A

Gr. Shepparton - Pt A

E. Gippsland -

Bairnsdale

Baw Baw - Pt B W

Ballarat - Inner N

Gr. Bendigo - Inner E

Ballarat - Central

People

20

30

05

00

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

S Barwon - Inner

Gr. Geelong - Pt B

Mildura - Pt A

Corio - Inner

Gr. Shepparton - Pt A

E. Gippsland - Bairnsdale

Baw Baw - Pt B W

Ballarat - Inner N

Gr. Bendigo - Inner East

Ballarat - S

People

20

50

S

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ns.


13

Table 3.3: Prevalence projections, by SLAs sorted into Metropolitan Health Regions

East Metro 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 258 263 269 274 279 286 293 302 308 315 324 441 558 672 161

Females 517 524 526 531 535 539 542 547 554 556 559 674 856 983 90

Persons 775 787 796 806 814 824 835 849 862 872 883 1,115 1,414 1,655 113

Males 254 265 276 289 302 313 322 333 344 356 368 526 719 877 245

Females 535 549 560 566 579 589 600 609 617 628 638 815 1,083 1,288 141

Persons 788 814 836 855 881 902 922 942 961 985 1,006 1,340 1,802 2,165 175

Males 142 150 159 166 175 183 193 203 212 220 230 342 488 657 363

Females 281 288 292 295 301 308 315 320 324 329 334 433 580 696 147

Persons 423 438 451 462 476 491 508 523 535 550 564 776 1,068 1,352 220

Males 172 179 186 192 200 206 213 221 230 238 243 334 454 564 227

Females 295 301 304 311 320 326 335 339 346 354 363 467 602 724 145

Persons 468 481 490 503 520 532 548 560 576 592 606 801 1,056 1,288 175

Males 826 857 890 921 956 988 1,021 1,058 1,093 1,130 1,165 1,643 2,219 2,770 235

Females 1,628 1,662 1,683 1,704 1,735 1,762 1,792 1,815 1,841 1,868 1,894 2,389 3,122 3,690 127

Persons 2,454 2,520 2,573 2,625 2,690 2,750 2,813 2,873 2,934 2,998 3,058 4,032 5,341 6,460 163

Males 251 264 278 290 302 314 328 342 354 367 380 531 660 767 206

Females 433 453 470 487 503 517 534 550 569 585 599 833 1,132 1,346 210

Persons 684 717 747 777 805 831 862 892 923 951 980 1,364 1,792 2,113 209

Males 225 239 253 267 282 298 313 331 350 366 383 569 789 996 344

Females 354 371 390 408 424 441 457 473 490 509 524 724 1,017 1,270 259

Persons 579 610 643 675 706 740 770 804 840 875 907 1,292 1,806 2,266 292

Males 106 116 124 134 143 154 167 178 190 203 215 390 577 737 593

Females 137 147 159 169 181 195 209 225 239 257 274 488 733 964 606

Persons 243 263 284 303 325 349 375 403 430 460 489 878 1,309 1,701 600

Males 581 619 655 691 727 767 808 852 894 936 979 1,490 2,026 2,501 330

Females 924 971 1,018 1,063 1,109 1,154 1,199 1,248 1,298 1,351 1,397 2,045 2,882 3,580 287

Persons 1,506 1,590 1,673 1,754 1,836 1,920 2,007 2,099 2,192 2,287 2,376 3,535 4,908 6,081 304

Males 50 53 56 58 61 65 70 73 76 80 84 125 161 192 286

Females 47 50 54 57 62 65 68 73 77 82 85 146 207 251 436

Persons 96 104 110 116 123 130 138 146 153 161 169 271 368 442 359

Knox - South

Manningham -

East

Knox (total)

Boroondara - Kew

Knox - North-East

Knox - North-

West

Boroondara

(total)

Boroondara -

Camberwell N.

Boroondara -

Camberwell S.

Boroondara -

Hawthorn



14

Table 3.4: Prevalence projections, by SLAs sorted into Metropolitan Health Regions, continued


Males 639 686 731 772 813 853 898 942 979 1,020 1,059 1,422 1,899 2,273 256

Females 933 984 1,038 1,093 1,151 1,208 1,265 1,320 1,377 1,436 1,491 2,062 2,899 3,635 290

Persons 1,572 1,671 1,769 1,865 1,965 2,061 2,163 2,261 2,357 2,456 2,550 3,484 4,798 5,907 276

Males 688 740 787 830 875 919 967 1,014 1,055 1,100 1,143 1,547 2,060 2,464 258

Females 980 1,035 1,092 1,151 1,213 1,272 1,333 1,393 1,454 1,517 1,576 2,208 3,106 3,885 297

Persons 1,668 1,774 1,879 1,981 2,088 2,191 2,301 2,407 2,510 2,617 2,719 3,755 5,166 6,350 281

Males 236 250 263 276 289 303 317 331 345 360 375 566 734 876 271

Females 294 310 325 339 354 366 381 397 413 428 445 650 883 1,054 259

Persons 530 560 588 615 644 669 697 728 758 788 820 1,216 1,617 1,930 264

Males 253 269 286 302 317 332 349 366 382 397 412 607 840 1,032 309

Females 471 497 520 546 567 593 619 644 669 691 716 989 1,389 1,725 266

Persons 724 766 806 847 884 925 968 1,010 1,050 1,089 1,128 1,596 2,229 2,758 281

Males 489 519 549 578 606 635 666 697 727 757 787 1,173 1,574 1,909 290

Females 765 807 845 884 921 959 1,000 1,041 1,081 1,120 1,161 1,638 2,272 2,779 263

Persons 1,254 1,326 1,394 1,462 1,527 1,594 1,665 1,738 1,808 1,877 1,948 2,812 3,845 4,688 274

Males 251 262 274 285 298 308 319 329 339 348 359 474 651 819 227

Females 394 407 421 430 445 462 481 493 503 518 530 676 913 1,104 180

Persons 644 669 695 716 743 771 800 823 842 866 889 1,150 1,565 1,923 198

Males 333 357 379 402 425 450 476 501 524 552 577 829 1,161 1,496 349

Females 517 543 566 588 615 642 670 698 724 754 782 1,123 1,625 2,074 301

Persons 850 900 945 990 1,041 1,092 1,146 1,199 1,248 1,306 1,359 1,952 2,786 3,570 320

Males 430 450 471 490 513 533 553 571 588 607 623 777 995 1,184 176

Females 592 617 645 665 688 714 740 763 786 807 827 1,050 1,420 1,728 192

Persons 1,021 1,068 1,116 1,155 1,201 1,247 1,293 1,334 1,374 1,414 1,450 1,827 2,415 2,913 185

Males 1,014 1,069 1,124 1,177 1,236 1,291 1,348 1,401 1,451 1,508 1,560 2,081 2,808 3,500 245

Females 1,502 1,568 1,632 1,683 1,749 1,819 1,891 1,955 2,013 2,079 2,139 2,849 3,958 4,905 227

Persons 2,516 2,636 2,756 2,860 2,985 3,110 3,238 3,356 3,464 3,587 3,699 4,929 6,766 8,405 234

Males 320 333 344 356 368 382 393 405 418 429 444 604 812 1,004 214

Females 554 569 580 587 596 602 610 616 621 629 636 821 1,113 1,316 138

Persons 873 903 924 944 964 984 1,003 1,021 1,039 1,058 1,080 1,425 1,926 2,320 166

Manningham

(total)

Maroondah

(total)

Monash (total)

Monash -

Waverley East

Monash -

Waverley West

Whitehorse - Box

Hill

Maroondah -

Croydon

Maroondah -

Ringwood

Monash - South-

West

Manningham -

West



15



Males 242 254 266 276 287 300 314 326 336 348 360 493 668 834 245

Females 375 386 397 411 423 436 448 462 477 491 503 661 901 1,108 196

Persons 616 640 663 687 710 736 762 788 814 840 864 1,154 1,570 1,943 215

Males 304 313 321 329 337 345 353 360 366 372 380 473 570 651 114

Females 440 447 454 459 463 468 475 482 486 492 497 621 753 834 90

Persons 744 761 774 788 800 814 828 842 852 864 877 1,093 1,322 1,485 100

Males 865 901 931 961 992 1,027 1,060 1,091 1,120 1,150 1,183 1,569 2,050 2,489 188

Females 1,368 1,403 1,430 1,457 1,481 1,507 1,533 1,560 1,585 1,612 1,637 2,103 2,767 3,258 138

Persons 2,233 2,304 2,361 2,418 2,473 2,534 2,593 2,651 2,705 2,762 2,820 3,673 4,817 5,748 157

Males 71 76 82 86 91 95 100 106 111 117 121 180 250 317 344

Females 103 108 114 119 126 131 137 143 148 156 164 242 354 465 353

Persons 174 185 196 205 217 226 237 249 259 273 285 422 604 782 349

Males 96 102 110 117 122 127 133 139 145 150 157 256 371 465 385

Females 119 125 130 137 141 151 158 165 171 177 184 286 416 527 343

Persons 215 226 240 254 263 278 291 304 316 327 341 543 787 992 362

Males 307 328 348 371 392 414 440 466 492 516 543 831 1,154 1,489 385

Females 444 472 495 517 538 565 591 616 639 664 692 1,013 1,419 1,771 299

Persons 751 801 842 888 930 979 1,031 1,082 1,131 1,180 1,234 1,844 2,573 3,260 334

Males 64 68 72 77 81 86 90 95 100 104 110 176 247 306 380

Females 89 93 97 103 110 115 120 126 131 138 145 216 298 377 324

Persons 153 160 169 180 191 201 209 221 231 242 254 392 546 683 347

Males 60 65 69 72 77 84 89 91 94 98 105 177 248 342 466

Females 64 69 70 73 75 79 82 84 88 91 95 146 203 251 290

Persons 125 133 139 146 152 163 171 176 182 189 200 323 451 593 375

Males 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 12 16 420

Females 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 238

Persons 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 11 17 21 358

Males 602 642 683 727 766 809 856 901 946 989 1,040 1,627 2,282 2,935 388

Females 820 868 908 950 992 1,043 1,090 1,136 1,180 1,229 1,282 1,907 2,695 3,395 314

Persons 1,422 1,510 1,591 1,677 1,758 1,851 1,945 2,038 2,126 2,218 2,321 3,535 4,977 6,330 345

Males 5,065 5,346 5,619 5,886 6,158 6,435 6,724 7,014 7,287 7,569 7,856 11,130 15,019 18,567 267

Females 7,987 8,314 8,608 8,892 9,200 9,515 9,838 10,147 10,452 10,777 11,084 15,140 20,802 25,494 219

Persons 13,052 13,660 14,227 14,778 15,358 15,950 16,562 17,161 17,739 18,346 18,941 26,270 35,821 44,061 238

Whitehorse -

Nunawading E.

Whitehorse -

Nunawading W.

Yarra Ranges -

Central

Yarra Ranges - Pt

B

Yarra Ranges -

Dandenongs

Yarra Ranges -

Lilydale

Yarra Ranges -

North

Whitehorse

(total)

Yarra Ranges

(total)

Yarra Ranges -

Seville

Total (East Metro)



16


North and West Metro 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 417 435 456 473 490 505 524 547 565 586 605 826 1,132 1,417 240

Females 695 720 739 756 776 801 821 838 855 871 890 1,121 1,491 1,780 156

Persons 1,112 1,155 1,195 1,228 1,266 1,306 1,346 1,384 1,420 1,457 1,495 1,947 2,623 3,197 187

Males 276 292 309 326 344 361 379 397 414 433 451 658 898 1,149 316

Females 420 443 466 484 506 529 553 576 597 616 642 919 1,295 1,689 302

Persons 696 736 774 810 850 890 932 973 1,011 1,049 1,093 1,577 2,193 2,838 308

Males 693 728 765 799 834 866 904 944 979 1,018 1,056 1,484 2,031 2,566 270

Females 1,115 1,163 1,205 1,240 1,282 1,330 1,374 1,413 1,452 1,487 1,532 2,040 2,786 3,469 211

Persons 1,808 1,891 1,969 2,039 2,116 2,196 2,278 2,357 2,431 2,506 2,588 3,524 4,816 6,035 234

Males 295 317 339 360 385 412 438 466 493 520 548 854 1,193 1,509 411

Females 419 442 469 496 522 552 580 607 635 667 703 1,078 1,541 2,001 378

Persons 714 759 808 856 907 964 1,018 1,073 1,128 1,187 1,251 1,932 2,734 3,510 392

Males 393 417 433 454 478 502 534 558 583 611 642 995 1,380 1,813 362

Females 526 555 582 606 626 654 684 710 736 764 796 1,152 1,593 2,032 286

Persons 919 971 1,015 1,059 1,104 1,157 1,217 1,268 1,319 1,375 1,437 2,146 2,973 3,845 318

Males 688 733 772 814 863 914 971 1,023 1,076 1,131 1,190 1,848 2,573 3,322 383

Females 945 997 1,051 1,102 1,148 1,206 1,263 1,317 1,371 1,432 1,498 2,230 3,134 4,033 327

Persons 1,633 1,730 1,824 1,916 2,010 2,120 2,235 2,340 2,447 2,563 2,688 4,078 5,707 7,356 350

Males 242 253 265 276 284 297 310 321 334 343 359 493 669 877 262

Females 366 377 389 399 411 424 435 449 457 472 487 618 816 1,009 176

Persons 609 630 654 675 695 721 745 770 791 816 846 1,111 1,485 1,887 210

Males 543 567 591 614 642 667 691 715 740 764 790 1,026 1,307 1,612 197

Females 848 883 921 955 988 1,019 1,047 1,075 1,105 1,130 1,156 1,402 1,767 2,092 147

Persons 1,391 1,451 1,511 1,569 1,630 1,687 1,738 1,789 1,845 1,893 1,946 2,428 3,073 3,704 166

Males 786 820 856 890 927 965 1,001 1,036 1,073 1,107 1,149 1,519 1,976 2,489 217

Females 1,214 1,260 1,309 1,354 1,399 1,443 1,482 1,524 1,563 1,602 1,643 2,021 2,582 3,102 156

Persons 2,000 2,081 2,165 2,244 2,325 2,407 2,483 2,560 2,636 2,709 2,792 3,540 4,558 5,591 180

Males 279 297 314 331 351 367 385 406 424 444 459 638 870 1,088 290

Females 416 440 467 491 516 542 567 595 620 646 667 892 1,200 1,508 262

Persons 695 737 781 822 867 909 951 1,001 1,044 1,089 1,126 1,530 2,070 2,596 273

Brimbank (total)

Darebin (total)

Banyule (total)

Darebin -

Northcote

Darebin - Preston

Hobsons Bay -

Altona

Banyule - North

Brimbank - Keilor

Brimbank -

Sunshine

Banyule -

Heidelberg



17



Males 154 161 168 171 176 183 191 198 204 212 219 322 452 577 274

Females 237 244 249 256 261 267 274 283 290 294 301 409 549 689 191

Persons 391 405 416 427 437 450 465 481 494 505 519 731 1,002 1,266 224

Males 433 458 482 502 527 550 576 604 628 655 678 960 1,323 1,665 285

Females 653 684 716 748 777 808 841 878 910 939 967 1,301 1,749 2,197 236

Persons 1,086 1,143 1,198 1,250 1,304 1,359 1,417 1,481 1,538 1,594 1,645 2,261 3,072 3,862 256

Males 247 263 280 296 313 331 351 368 384 403 418 565 740 901 265

Females 319 340 362 383 403 423 444 469 490 508 529 727 949 1,128 254

Persons 566 604 642 680 716 754 794 837 874 911 947 1,293 1,689 2,029 259

Males 110 123 137 150 165 181 199 219 238 257 279 535 801 1,065 867

Females 136 151 167 180 197 215 235 256 278 301 324 626 967 1,293 854

Persons 246 274 304 330 361 396 434 475 516 558 603 1,161 1,768 2,359 860

Males 116 124 133 142 153 162 172 183 194 206 217 351 502 643 454

Females 166 176 186 196 206 219 231 244 257 269 286 464 684 907 445

Persons 282 300 320 338 358 382 403 428 451 475 503 815 1,186 1,550 449

Males 473 511 551 589 630 674 721 770 816 866 914 1,451 2,043 2,609 452

Females 621 668 715 760 806 858 910 970 1,025 1,079 1,138 1,817 2,601 3,329 436

Persons 1,094 1,178 1,265 1,348 1,436 1,532 1,631 1,740 1,841 1,944 2,053 3,268 4,644 5,938 443

Males 279 287 295 301 309 316 325 332 340 348 360 507 682 833 198

Females 483 496 502 512 520 530 542 552 559 566 576 734 966 1,187 146

Persons 762 783 797 813 829 847 866 884 898 914 936 1,242 1,648 2,020 165

Males 279 287 295 301 309 316 325 332 340 348 360 507 682 833 198

Females 483 496 502 512 520 530 542 552 559 566 576 734 966 1,187 146

Persons 762 783 797 813 829 847 866 884 898 914 936 1,242 1,648 2,020 165

Males 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 41 44 47 49 94 145 190 672

Females 25 27 30 33 36 38 41 45 48 52 55 108 171 225 808

Persons 49 54 60 64 69 74 79 85 92 98 103 203 316 415 740

Hobsons Bay

(total)

Hume (total)

Maribyrnong

(total)

Hume - Sunbury

Maribyrnong

Melbourne -

Inner

Hobsons Bay -

Williamstown

Hume -

Broadmeadows

Hume -

Craigieburn



18



Males 31 36 40 44 49 55 61 69 76 85 93 213 341 464 1,384

Females 29 33 37 43 48 55 62 69 76 85 94 221 373 505 1,645

Persons 60 68 78 87 97 110 123 138 153 170 187 433 715 969 1,510

Males 160 169 179 189 200 212 225 239 254 268 284 491 749 1,003 526

Females 249 259 271 285 299 316 334 354 373 394 414 700 1,102 1,470 490

Persons 409 429 450 474 498 528 559 593 627 662 698 1,191 1,850 2,473 504

Males 216 232 249 264 282 302 325 349 374 400 426 798 1,235 1,657 666

Females 303 319 339 361 382 409 437 467 497 530 563 1,029 1,647 2,200 627

Persons 519 551 588 625 665 712 762 816 872 930 989 1,827 2,882 3,856 643

Males 77 85 92 101 110 118 128 137 147 159 170 311 466 619 704

Females 108 120 133 145 156 170 184 197 211 224 239 423 668 887 721

Persons 185 205 225 246 266 288 312 334 358 383 409 734 1,134 1,506 714

Males 147 166 185 206 226 248 269 291 316 341 367 712 1,061 1,441 878

Females 199 227 256 283 311 340 369 401 432 463 496 962 1,523 2,015 911

Persons 347 393 441 489 537 587 638 692 747 804 863 1,674 2,584 3,456 897

Males 224 251 278 307 336 366 396 428 463 500 537 1,022 1,528 2,060 818

Females 307 347 388 428 467 510 554 598 642 687 735 1,385 2,191 2,902 844

Persons 532 598 666 735 803 875 950 1,026 1,105 1,187 1,272 2,408 3,719 4,962 833

Males 317 327 338 350 362 373 383 393 406 416 428 596 794 956 202

Females 563 574 582 591 600 610 617 623 632 643 652 829 1,089 1,283 128

Persons 879 901 921 941 962 982 1,000 1,016 1,037 1,060 1,080 1,425 1,883 2,239 155

Males 286 308 327 346 362 380 400 418 435 449 463 616 820 982 244

Females 390 418 447 471 497 522 550 581 607 633 653 897 1,275 1,617 315

Persons 675 726 774 817 859 901 950 999 1,042 1,082 1,116 1,513 2,095 2,599 285

Males 602 635 666 697 724 752 783 811 841 865 891 1,212 1,613 1,938 222

Females 952 992 1,029 1,062 1,097 1,131 1,167 1,204 1,239 1,277 1,305 1,727 2,364 2,900 205

Persons 1,555 1,627 1,695 1,759 1,821 1,883 1,950 2,015 2,079 2,142 2,196 2,939 3,978 4,838 211

Males 186 195 202 207 214 220 226 231 236 240 246 301 369 418 124

Females 259 267 275 284 294 300 305 312 318 326 333 416 530 596 130

Persons 445 462 477 492 508 520 531 543 554 567 579 717 899 1,014 128

Moonee Valley

(total)

Melbourne (total)

Moreland -

Brunswick

Melton Bal

Moonee Valley -

Essendon

Moonee Valley -

West

Melton (total)

Melbourne -

S'bank-D'lands

Melbourne -

Remainder

Melton - East



19



Males 280 289 296 305 312 318 326 331 342 351 356 438 558 663 137

Females 451 462 471 480 488 497 505 508 512 518 526 597 711 798 77

Persons 731 751 767 784 800 815 832 839 853 869 882 1,035 1,269 1,462 100

Males 357 373 386 398 410 420 430 438 445 451 456 533 652 732 105

Females 564 592 617 637 658 680 699 716 727 741 755 834 985 1,050 86

Persons 921 964 1,003 1,035 1,068 1,100 1,129 1,154 1,172 1,192 1,211 1,368 1,638 1,783 94

Males 823 856 884 910 935 959 982 1,000 1,023 1,042 1,058 1,272 1,579 1,814 120

Females 1,274 1,321 1,362 1,400 1,440 1,476 1,510 1,536 1,557 1,586 1,613 1,847 2,227 2,445 92

Persons 2,097 2,177 2,246 2,311 2,375 2,435 2,491 2,536 2,580 2,628 2,672 3,119 3,806 4,259 103

Males 93 99 106 114 122 129 138 146 156 165 175 293 433 565 509

Females 128 134 141 147 154 161 167 175 181 191 197 321 486 631 392

Persons 221 233 247 261 276 290 305 321 338 356 372 613 919 1,195 441

Males 56 60 64 68 72 77 82 88 94 99 105 178 252 314 465

Females 75 78 83 87 91 97 102 109 115 121 127 222 338 439 487

Persons 130 138 147 155 164 174 184 197 208 220 232 400 590 753 478

Males 35 37 39 41 42 45 47 49 54 53 58 97 152 196 464

Females 37 39 42 44 46 47 51 54 57 59 62 106 157 199 435

Persons 72 76 81 85 88 92 98 103 110 112 120 204 309 395 449

Males 183 195 208 223 237 251 267 283 303 317 338 568 837 1,075 487

Females 240 252 266 278 290 305 320 338 353 371 387 649 980 1,268 428

Persons 423 447 474 501 527 556 587 621 656 688 725 1,217 1,817 2,343 454

Males 76 86 95 105 116 127 139 152 165 180 195 394 565 720 845

Females 96 106 117 128 140 151 163 177 191 206 222 456 672 839 773

Persons 172 192 212 233 255 278 302 329 356 386 417 849 1,237 1,559 805

Males 120 129 139 150 163 176 188 202 215 231 249 393 540 669 460

Females 165 179 193 207 221 237 255 272 288 304 322 527 772 1,019 517

Persons 285 308 332 358 384 413 443 474 503 536 571 920 1,312 1,688 493

Males 272 291 310 328 348 366 388 411 431 452 472 662 866 1,052 287

Females 329 350 373 395 417 443 466 490 513 541 566 813 1,130 1,405 327

Persons 601 641 684 723 765 809 855 901 944 992 1,038 1,475 1,995 2,457 309

Moreland (total)

Nillumbik (total)

Whittlesea -

North

Whittlesea -

South-East

Whittlesea -

South-West

Nillumbik - South

Nillumbik - South-

West

Nillumbik Bal

Moreland -

Coburg

Moreland - North



20



Males 468 506 545 583 626 669 716 766 812 863 916 1,448 1,970 2,442 422

Females 590 635 683 730 778 831 883 939 992 1,052 1,110 1,796 2,574 3,264 453

Persons 1,058 1,140 1,227 1,313 1,404 1,500 1,599 1,704 1,804 1,914 2,026 3,244 4,544 5,705 439

Males 241 262 283 307 330 354 381 408 435 463 493 868 1,273 1,662 588

Females 313 339 364 392 420 448 476 505 537 567 599 1,045 1,563 1,958 525

Persons 555 601 647 699 750 802 858 913 972 1,030 1,092 1,913 2,836 3,620 553

Males 29 33 36 40 44 49 54 59 64 71 78 161 243 318 979

Females 37 41 45 50 53 58 64 69 75 81 88 189 287 375 914

Persons 66 74 81 90 98 107 117 128 140 152 166 350 530 692 943

Males 53 59 65 71 77 83 91 99 107 116 124 245 358 469 780

Females 70 77 85 91 99 107 115 124 133 143 154 305 474 604 757

Persons 124 137 150 162 176 190 205 223 240 259 278 550 833 1,073 767

Males 324 354 385 419 451 486 526 565 607 650 695 1,274 1,874 2,449 655

Females 421 457 493 532 572 614 655 698 745 791 841 1,539 2,325 2,937 598

Persons 745 811 878 951 1,024 1,100 1,180 1,264 1,352 1,441 1,536 2,812 4,199 5,386 623

Males 180 190 200 207 215 226 235 242 253 262 271 406 563 714 296

Females 258 267 274 282 292 302 311 320 334 347 359 515 740 939 264

Persons 439 458 475 489 507 528 546 562 586 609 630 921 1,303 1,653 277

Males 88 92 97 102 107 112 116 119 123 128 133 179 230 272 211

Females 128 134 140 144 149 154 159 165 170 176 181 256 368 471 267

Persons 216 226 237 246 256 265 274 285 293 304 314 434 598 743 244

Males 268 283 297 309 322 337 350 362 376 389 404 585 793 986 268

Females 387 401 414 426 441 456 470 486 503 523 540 770 1,108 1,410 265

Persons 655 684 711 735 763 793 820 847 879 913 944 1,355 1,901 2,396 266

Males 6,460 6,849 7,231 7,607 8,004 8,409 8,844 9,273 9,710 10,153 10,611 15,949 22,056 27,903 332

Females 9,505 9,992 10,472 10,931 11,399 11,906 12,406 12,919 13,408 13,922 14,449 20,886 29,234 36,642 285

Persons 15,965 16,841 17,703 18,538 19,403 20,315 21,250 22,192 23,118 24,075 25,060 36,834 51,291 64,545 304

Total (North and

West Metro)

Wyndham - North

Wyndham - South

Wyndham - West

Whittlesea (total)

Wyndham (total)

Yarra (total)

Yarra - North

Yarra - Richmond



21


Southern Metro 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 260 269 278 290 303 314 328 343 358 373 388 572 793 1,037 299

Females 470 484 497 507 519 531 543 554 567 577 591 788 1,076 1,356 189

Persons 729 753 775 797 822 845 872 897 924 951 980 1,360 1,869 2,392 228

Males 334 342 348 358 365 372 377 385 395 403 412 562 730 864 159

Females 630 637 642 650 650 655 662 671 676 677 683 830 1,052 1,203 91

Persons 964 978 991 1,008 1,016 1,026 1,039 1,057 1,071 1,079 1,095 1,392 1,781 2,067 114

Males 594 611 626 648 668 685 706 728 753 776 800 1,134 1,523 1,901 220

Females 1,100 1,121 1,140 1,157 1,169 1,186 1,205 1,226 1,242 1,254 1,274 1,618 2,127 2,559 133

Persons 1,694 1,732 1,766 1,806 1,838 1,871 1,911 1,954 1,995 2,030 2,075 2,752 3,650 4,459 163

Males 88 93 97 103 109 115 120 126 133 140 147 229 326 418 375

Females 113 117 123 127 133 139 145 152 158 165 172 278 412 548 386

Persons 201 210 220 230 242 254 265 278 291 305 319 507 738 966 381

Males 121 135 150 166 183 201 222 244 267 291 315 651 1,044 1,424 1,072

Females 186 206 225 248 269 293 319 346 375 404 437 873 1,391 1,886 915

Persons 307 342 375 414 451 495 541 591 643 695 752 1,524 2,436 3,310 977

Males 33 34 36 37 40 41 43 45 47 49 51 73 104 134 311

Females 42 44 47 49 51 54 56 59 61 62 64 86 120 148 257

Persons 74 79 83 86 91 96 99 103 108 111 115 159 224 282 281

Males 242 263 283 306 331 358 384 415 447 479 513 953 1,475 1,976 717

Females 340 367 395 424 453 487 520 557 594 632 673 1,237 1,923 2,583 659

Persons 582 630 677 730 784 844 905 972 1,041 1,111 1,186 2,190 3,398 4,559 683

Males 259 276 294 311 330 349 369 390 411 433 456 728 1,018 1,272 391

Females 384 403 425 448 471 496 523 549 577 609 636 1,003 1,472 1,893 393

Persons 643 678 719 759 801 845 892 939 988 1,042 1,092 1,730 2,490 3,165 392

Males 211 233 256 278 301 326 351 377 404 432 463 835 1,235 1,582 650

Females 306 338 367 397 428 460 493 527 563 599 635 1,099 1,691 2,221 625

Persons 517 571 623 675 729 785 844 904 966 1,031 1,098 1,935 2,926 3,804 635

Males 181 195 207 220 229 244 258 273 287 301 318 480 678 871 381

Females 230 244 258 270 280 294 307 325 337 349 363 530 743 929 304

Persons 411 439 464 489 509 538 565 598 624 650 680 1,010 1,421 1,800 338

Casey -

Cranbourne

Casey - Hallam

Cardinia -

Pakenham

Cardinia - South

Casey - Berwick

Cardinia (total)

Bayside -

Brighton

Bayside - South

Cardinia - North

Bayside (total)



22



Males 48 52 54 58 64 68 74 81 86 94 102 209 312 414 759

Females 48 53 58 62 68 73 80 86 94 101 109 235 367 494 919

Persons 97 105 112 121 131 142 154 167 180 195 211 444 679 908 839

Males 699 756 811 867 924 987 1,051 1,121 1,188 1,260 1,339 2,252 3,243 4,140 492

Females 968 1,037 1,107 1,177 1,246 1,322 1,403 1,487 1,570 1,658 1,743 2,867 4,272 5,537 472

Persons 1,668 1,793 1,918 2,044 2,170 2,309 2,454 2,608 2,758 2,917 3,082 5,119 7,516 9,677 480

Males 144 157 169 182 193 205 217 232 245 260 274 448 641 822 469

Females 180 193 209 219 233 248 265 281 294 311 327 529 780 1,008 460

Persons 325 350 378 401 426 453 482 512 539 572 602 978 1,421 1,830 464

Males 449 469 489 512 533 558 581 607 634 660 689 1,007 1,354 1,745 288

Females 737 759 780 804 829 857 885 911 936 964 991 1,346 1,805 2,255 206

Persons 1,186 1,227 1,269 1,316 1,362 1,414 1,466 1,518 1,571 1,624 1,680 2,353 3,160 4,000 237

Males 594 625 658 693 726 762 799 839 879 920 963 1,455 1,995 2,567 332

Females 917 952 989 1,024 1,062 1,105 1,150 1,191 1,230 1,275 1,318 1,876 2,586 3,263 256

Persons 1,511 1,577 1,647 1,717 1,788 1,867 1,949 2,030 2,109 2,196 2,281 3,331 4,581 5,831 286

Males 469 479 490 498 510 524 536 547 558 572 586 797 1,053 1,281 173

Females 820 831 843 849 852 860 866 873 878 883 889 1,089 1,392 1,603 95

Persons 1,289 1,309 1,333 1,346 1,362 1,384 1,402 1,420 1,436 1,454 1,475 1,886 2,445 2,884 124

Males 321 335 350 363 373 383 394 406 414 422 432 591 791 954 198

Females 566 588 605 621 636 648 665 680 692 701 712 863 1,096 1,252 121

Persons 887 923 955 984 1,009 1,031 1,059 1,086 1,106 1,123 1,144 1,453 1,887 2,206 149

Males 790 814 840 861 883 907 930 953 972 994 1,018 1,388 1,844 2,234 183

Females 1,386 1,418 1,448 1,470 1,487 1,508 1,531 1,553 1,570 1,583 1,601 1,951 2,488 2,856 106

Persons 2,176 2,232 2,288 2,330 2,371 2,415 2,461 2,506 2,542 2,577 2,620 3,339 4,332 5,090 134

Males 292 308 326 343 359 377 396 414 431 448 470 713 977 1,290 342

Females 466 491 516 538 560 587 609 632 655 676 700 973 1,337 1,698 265

Persons 758 799 842 881 919 964 1,004 1,046 1,087 1,124 1,171 1,686 2,314 2,987 294

Males 381 402 422 444 468 492 517 543 567 594 618 907 1,263 1,603 321

Females 540 569 598 622 647 676 704 733 761 786 811 1,141 1,586 1,966 264

Persons 921 971 1,021 1,065 1,115 1,168 1,222 1,275 1,328 1,380 1,429 2,048 2,849 3,569 288

Casey (total)

Frankston (total)

Glen Eira (total)

Glen Eira - South

Gr. Dandenong -

Dandenong

Gr. Dandenong

Bal

Frankston - East

Frankston - West

Glen Eira -

Caulfield

Casey - South



23



Males 673 710 748 787 827 869 913 957 998 1,042 1,089 1,619 2,240 2,893 330

Females 1,006 1,061 1,114 1,159 1,206 1,263 1,313 1,364 1,416 1,463 1,512 2,114 2,923 3,663 264

Persons 1,678 1,771 1,863 1,946 2,034 2,132 2,226 2,321 2,414 2,504 2,600 3,734 5,163 6,556 291

Males 535 556 578 595 615 633 654 675 693 715 737 1,011 1,347 1,621 203

Females 663 670 676 682 689 697 706 717 728 741 753 1,022 1,278 1,453 119

Persons 1,198 1,227 1,254 1,278 1,304 1,330 1,361 1,391 1,421 1,456 1,490 2,033 2,626 3,074 157

Males 243 254 267 278 291 303 315 328 340 354 369 522 687 848 249

Females 398 413 429 442 457 470 482 494 502 514 526 724 991 1,181 197

Persons 640 667 696 719 748 773 797 821 842 869 895 1,245 1,679 2,029 217

Males 777 811 844 873 906 936 969 1,002 1,033 1,070 1,105 1,533 2,035 2,469 218

Females 1,061 1,083 1,106 1,124 1,147 1,167 1,188 1,210 1,230 1,255 1,280 1,745 2,269 2,634 148

Persons 1,838 1,894 1,950 1,997 2,052 2,103 2,158 2,213 2,263 2,325 2,385 3,278 4,304 5,103 178

Males 169 178 188 200 212 225 238 249 263 277 290 445 607 743 341

Females 216 226 238 252 264 277 289 302 316 330 345 545 784 964 345

Persons 385 404 427 452 476 503 526 552 580 607 635 990 1,392 1,707 344

Males 507 533 557 583 608 629 653 675 699 725 746 1,060 1,446 1,768 249

Females 734 767 803 834 867 897 930 965 996 1,030 1,061 1,515 2,164 2,737 273

Persons 1,242 1,300 1,360 1,417 1,475 1,527 1,584 1,640 1,696 1,754 1,807 2,575 3,610 4,505 263

Males 392 414 435 456 478 504 530 555 574 599 627 915 1,270 1,605 310

Females 583 615 642 668 690 715 745 774 801 829 859 1,236 1,715 2,200 277

Persons 975 1,029 1,077 1,124 1,168 1,218 1,275 1,329 1,375 1,428 1,486 2,151 2,985 3,805 290

Males 1,068 1,125 1,181 1,239 1,298 1,358 1,421 1,480 1,537 1,601 1,663 2,420 3,323 4,117 286

Females 1,533 1,608 1,683 1,753 1,822 1,890 1,964 2,041 2,113 2,188 2,265 3,295 4,663 5,901 285

Persons 2,601 2,733 2,863 2,992 3,120 3,248 3,385 3,520 3,650 3,789 3,928 5,716 7,987 10,018 285

Males 183 189 195 200 205 209 213 218 223 230 236 337 462 571 211

Females 290 290 292 293 296 300 304 308 311 317 324 432 591 724 150

Persons 473 480 487 492 501 509 517 526 534 546 560 769 1,054 1,295 174

Males 173 184 193 204 212 223 235 245 257 268 282 450 626 814 371

Females 238 249 259 270 282 296 307 321 333 351 368 600 898 1,162 387

Persons 412 433 452 473 493 520 541 566 591 619 650 1,050 1,524 1,977 380

Greater

Dandenong

(total)

Kingston (total)

Mornington

Peninsula (total)

Port Phillip -

West

Mornington

P'sula - South

Mornington

P'sula - West

Port Phillip - St

Kilda

Kingston - North

Kingston - South

Mornington

P'sula - East



24



Males 357 373 388 403 417 432 448 464 481 498 518 787 1,088 1,386 289

Females 528 539 551 562 578 596 610 628 644 667 692 1,032 1,490 1,886 257

Persons 885 912 939 966 994 1,029 1,058 1,092 1,125 1,165 1,211 1,819 2,578 3,272 270

Males 257 270 280 290 300 312 328 344 354 366 380 556 770 972 279

Females 406 422 435 447 457 469 483 497 507 519 535 744 1,022 1,300 220

Persons 663 692 715 737 757 781 811 840 861 886 915 1,300 1,792 2,272 243

Males 252 267 281 294 307 322 339 354 369 384 398 571 791 996 296

Females 452 468 483 499 514 531 548 564 582 598 615 833 1,146 1,463 224

Persons 704 735 765 793 821 854 887 918 950 982 1,013 1,404 1,937 2,460 250

Males 508 537 562 584 607 634 666 697 723 750 778 1,128 1,561 1,969 287

Females 858 890 918 946 971 1,001 1,031 1,060 1,088 1,117 1,150 1,577 2,169 2,764 222

Persons 1,366 1,427 1,480 1,530 1,578 1,635 1,698 1,758 1,811 1,867 1,928 2,705 3,730 4,732 246

Males 6,301 6,625 6,940 7,262 7,588 7,928 8,288 8,655 9,010 9,389 9,786 14,668 20,327 25,651 307

Females 9,698 10,077 10,450 10,796 11,140 11,525 11,917 12,319 12,700 13,093 13,508 19,314 26,910 33,645 247

Persons 15,999 16,701 17,390 18,058 18,728 19,453 20,205 20,974 21,710 22,482 23,294 33,982 47,237 59,296 271

Stonnington -

Prahran

Stonnington -

Malvern

Port Phillip (total)

Total (Southern

Metro)

Stonnington

(total)



25

Table 3.15: Prevalence projections, by SLAs sorted into Non-Metropolitan Health Regions

Barwon-South Western 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 80 84 87 91 95 98 103 107 112 115 119 159 213 261 228

Females 151 155 158 164 167 173 177 179 184 187 192 244 328 412 172

Persons 231 239 246 255 262 271 279 287 296 302 310 403 541 673 191

Males 27 28 30 31 32 34 35 37 39 40 42 63 92 120 346

Females 33 36 37 38 40 43 44 45 47 49 52 81 125 161 388

Persons 60 64 67 70 72 77 79 83 86 89 94 145 217 281 369

Males 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 26 28 29 31 45 63 81 300

Females 26 26 28 27 27 31 32 33 34 35 37 51 65 76 192

Persons 46 47 50 50 51 56 57 60 62 64 67 96 128 157 239

Males 127 133 140 146 150 157 163 171 179 184 191 267 368 462 264

Females 210 217 223 229 235 246 253 258 266 272 281 377 518 649 209

Persons 337 350 363 375 385 404 416 429 445 456 472 644 886 1,111 230

Males 69 72 76 79 81 84 89 91 94 96 99 125 162 195 183

Females 112 120 125 129 133 135 142 146 149 151 154 199 262 334 199

Persons 181 192 200 208 214 219 231 237 243 247 253 323 423 530 193

Males 38 41 43 45 47 49 52 54 56 58 60 84 118 149 288

Females 56 59 63 66 68 72 74 78 82 86 89 131 182 241 326

Persons 95 100 105 111 115 121 126 132 137 143 149 215 300 390 311

Males 107 113 118 123 128 134 140 145 150 154 159 209 279 344 221

Females 169 179 187 195 201 207 216 224 230 236 242 330 444 575 241

Persons 276 292 306 319 329 340 357 370 380 391 402 538 723 920 233

Males 30 32 34 34 36 38 40 42 43 46 48 67 85 101 233

Females 39 41 42 44 46 48 51 52 55 56 59 85 118 151 283

Persons 70 73 76 78 82 86 91 95 99 102 106 152 204 252 261

Males 34 35 37 40 41 43 45 47 48 49 52 76 104 152 341

Females 40 41 42 43 44 47 47 48 50 52 52 65 88 110 176

Persons 74 77 79 83 85 89 92 95 98 101 105 141 192 262 253

Males 62 66 71 76 77 82 87 91 96 100 105 152 201 243 291

Females 99 103 106 109 112 114 118 121 124 127 129 177 234 271 175

Persons 161 169 176 185 189 196 204 211 220 226 234 329 435 514 220

Colac-Otway

(totalS)

Corangamite

(total)

Glenelg -

Portland

Glenelg -

Heywood

Glenelg - North

Corangamite -

South

Colac-Otway -

North

Colac-Otway -

South

Corangamite -

North

Colac-Otway -

Colac



26

Table 3.16: Prevalence projections, by SLAs sorted into Non-Metropolitan Health Regions, continued


Males 127 134 142 150 154 163 172 180 188 194 205 295 390 496 291

Females 178 185 190 196 202 209 216 221 229 235 240 327 441 532 199

Persons 305 319 332 346 357 372 387 402 416 429 445 622 831 1,028 237

Males 137 145 153 162 169 176 184 192 200 205 212 291 387 464 239

Females 224 236 247 258 269 281 294 307 318 330 340 472 660 821 267

Persons 361 381 401 420 438 457 478 499 518 535 552 763 1,046 1,285 256

Males 307 322 339 355 370 383 401 419 438 455 470 682 920 1,185 286

Females 449 472 492 512 534 556 577 593 615 638 658 892 1,175 1,436 220

Persons 757 795 830 867 904 939 977 1,012 1,053 1,093 1,128 1,575 2,095 2,621 246

Males 62 61 63 65 67 68 70 72 75 79 81 113 150 183 197

Females 117 118 120 123 124 126 128 131 132 134 138 176 230 282 140

Persons 179 180 183 188 191 194 199 203 207 213 218 289 380 465 160

Males 81 84 87 90 92 93 96 99 103 104 105 151 207 277 241

Females 147 149 150 152 153 157 160 162 162 164 167 199 248 291 98

Persons 228 233 237 242 245 251 256 262 265 268 272 350 455 568 149

Males 56 58 61 63 65 68 70 72 75 78 81 120 163 202 261

Females 89 91 92 94 95 95 96 97 97 99 100 137 195 239 170

Persons 145 149 153 156 160 162 165 168 172 177 181 257 358 441 205

Males 335 357 379 400 422 446 473 498 524 546 569 864 1,214 1,601 378

Females 579 613 642 672 702 737 771 807 839 869 904 1,301 1,890 2,496 331

Persons 914 970 1,021 1,072 1,124 1,183 1,244 1,305 1,363 1,415 1,473 2,165 3,105 4,097 348

Males 274 288 303 317 332 348 364 381 397 415 430 643 908 1,161 324

Females 380 402 423 447 469 490 513 534 555 575 596 900 1,318 1,761 363

Persons 654 689 726 765 801 837 877 915 952 989 1,027 1,543 2,226 2,922 347

Males 11 11 12 14 15 16 16 17 18 21 22 41 62 83 656

Females 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 14 14 15 16 33 52 70 626

Persons 21 21 21 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 38 75 114 152 642

Males 1,262 1,326 1,396 1,466 1,533 1,596 1,674 1,751 1,830 1,902 1,970 2,905 4,011 5,155 308

Females 1,995 2,091 2,176 2,268 2,357 2,454 2,550 2,644 2,732 2,823 2,919 4,111 5,769 7,397 271

Persons 3,257 3,418 3,572 3,734 3,890 4,050 4,225 4,394 4,562 4,725 4,888 7,016 9,780 12,552 285

Glenelg (total)

Greater Geelong

(total)

South Barwon -

Inner

Newtown

Greater Geelong -

Pt B

Greater Geelong -

Pt C

Geelong West

Corio - Inner

Geelong

Bellarine - Inner



27



Males 19 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 33 48 61 217

Females 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 30 31 40 50 56 144

Persons 42 44 45 45 46 47 49 50 51 53 54 74 98 117 177

Males 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 21 27 32 173

Females 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 27 33 37 128

Persons 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 47 60 69 147

Males 53 55 57 59 61 64 66 69 71 73 76 108 135 159 198

Females 90 93 95 99 102 105 107 109 111 114 116 168 246 306 242

Persons 143 148 152 158 163 169 173 177 182 187 192 276 382 465 225

Males 84 87 89 91 94 97 100 103 107 110 113 162 210 252 199

Females 129 133 136 142 146 150 152 155 159 163 167 235 329 399 210

Persons 213 220 225 232 240 246 252 258 266 273 280 397 540 651 205

Males 40 42 43 44 45 47 48 50 50 51 53 73 96 117 195

Females 68 69 73 75 77 79 80 82 84 86 87 110 151 185 171

Persons 108 111 116 119 123 125 128 131 134 137 140 182 247 302 180

Males 40 42 43 44 45 47 48 50 50 51 53 73 96 117 195

Females 68 69 73 75 77 79 80 82 84 86 87 110 151 185 171

Persons 108 111 116 119 123 125 128 131 134 137 140 182 247 302 180

Males 67 70 73 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 97 131 167 194 191

Females 122 126 130 134 138 141 145 147 149 152 155 195 249 281 130

Persons 189 196 203 210 218 224 231 236 241 247 252 326 417 475 152

Males 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 27 32 37 100

Females 32 32 32 31 33 33 33 34 34 35 35 42 49 53 63

Persons 51 51 52 51 53 53 54 54 55 56 56 69 82 90 77

Males 34 36 38 40 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 82 118 150 336

Females 41 43 44 46 48 50 52 55 56 58 60 91 131 165 299

Persons 76 79 82 87 90 95 99 104 107 112 115 173 249 316 316

Males 120 125 131 136 143 148 154 158 164 170 173 240 318 382 219

Females 196 201 206 211 218 225 230 236 240 245 250 328 429 499 155

Persons 315 326 337 347 361 373 384 394 403 415 423 568 747 880 179

S. Grampians -

Hamilton

Moyne - North-

East

Moyne - North-

West

Moyne - South

S. Grampians -

Wannon

S. Grampians Bal

Queenscliffe

(total)

Queenscliffe

Moyne (total)

Southern

Grampians (total)



28



Males 60 65 69 74 80 85 91 98 105 113 119 205 303 398 562

Females 85 89 94 99 104 111 115 122 130 138 147 251 380 488 474

Persons 145 153 164 174 184 196 206 220 236 250 265 457 684 886 511

Males 64 67 71 74 77 81 84 87 90 93 96 131 170 204 219

Females 93 97 101 104 106 109 112 116 120 122 126 170 234 287 209

Persons 157 164 173 178 183 190 196 203 209 215 222 302 404 491 213

Males 124 132 141 148 157 166 175 185 195 205 215 337 473 602 385

Females 178 185 195 204 210 219 228 238 250 260 272 422 615 775 336

Persons 302 317 336 352 367 385 402 423 445 465 488 758 1,088 1,377 356

Males 142 148 153 160 166 172 179 185 192 200 208 309 395 471 231

Females 282 293 303 313 322 331 340 353 365 377 392 555 792 1,003 256

Persons 424 441 457 473 488 503 519 538 557 576 600 864 1,187 1,473 248

Males 142 148 153 160 166 172 179 185 192 200 208 309 395 471 231

Females 282 293 303 313 322 331 340 353 365 377 392 555 792 1,003 256

Persons 424 441 457 473 488 503 519 538 557 576 600 864 1,187 1,473 248

Males 2,133 2,240 2,353 2,464 2,571 2,678 2,804 2,928 3,055 3,170 3,286 4,796 6,542 8,281 288

Females 3,404 3,554 3,690 3,834 3,969 4,119 4,265 4,411 4,554 4,697 4,851 6,794 9,488 12,014 253

Persons 5,537 5,794 6,043 6,298 6,540 6,798 7,070 7,339 7,609 7,867 8,137 11,589 16,030 20,294 267

Surf Coast - East

Surf Coast - West

Warrnambool

Total (Barwon-

South Western)

Surf Coast (total)

Warrnambool

(total)



29


Gippsland 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 71 75 81 85 88 91 95 101 105 108 113 175 252 326 360

Females 104 107 111 116 123 128 132 138 143 149 156 236 335 424 309

Persons 175 183 192 201 210 219 227 239 247 257 268 411 587 750 329

Males 162 168 177 186 194 203 210 220 227 235 241 335 465 594 267

Females 231 244 257 266 281 294 305 317 328 339 350 496 689 889 285

Persons 393 412 434 452 475 497 514 537 555 574 592 831 1,154 1,483 278

Males 233 244 257 271 281 294 305 320 331 343 354 511 717 920 296

Females 335 351 368 382 404 422 436 455 471 487 506 732 1,024 1,313 292

Persons 567 595 625 653 685 715 742 776 802 831 860 1,242 1,741 2,233 294

Males 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 45 48 72 89 108 318

Females 47 50 54 55 57 58 61 64 66 67 69 102 144 179 279

Persons 73 78 83 85 89 93 98 103 107 113 118 174 233 287 293

Males 19 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 28 41 56 70 263

Females 22 22 25 26 26 28 29 31 31 32 34 51 68 87 303

Persons 41 42 46 47 48 51 53 56 58 60 62 92 124 157 284

Males 181 195 206 218 232 245 259 272 285 300 317 492 700 925 411

Females 265 282 297 315 330 347 365 379 398 416 437 661 984 1,319 398

Persons 446 477 503 533 562 592 624 651 682 716 754 1,153 1,684 2,244 403

Males 226 242 256 270 287 303 320 336 352 373 393 606 845 1,103 387

Females 333 355 376 395 413 433 455 473 495 515 540 814 1,196 1,585 375

Persons 560 597 632 665 700 736 775 810 847 889 933 1,420 2,041 2,688 380

Males 236 250 266 277 289 303 318 334 348 362 378 536 734 921 291

Females 342 361 379 398 416 435 454 473 493 511 534 775 1,092 1,424 316

Persons 578 611 645 675 705 738 772 807 841 873 912 1,311 1,827 2,344 306

Males 58 62 66 68 70 73 77 81 84 88 90 131 179 222 281

Females 63 66 70 73 77 80 84 88 91 97 102 153 211 266 321

Persons 121 127 135 141 147 153 161 169 176 185 192 284 390 488 302

Males 21 22 24 26 27 28 30 32 34 39 41 85 143 224 972

Females 18 19 21 22 24 26 28 30 32 33 35 71 107 139 660

Persons 39 42 45 48 51 54 58 62 65 72 76 155 250 363 826

Bass Coast (total)

Baw Baw (total)

E. Gippsland -

Bairnsdale

E. Gippsland -

Orbost

E. Gippsland -

South-West

Baw Baw - Pt A

Baw Baw - Pt B

East

Baw Baw - Pt B

West

Bass Coast -

Phillip Is.

Bass Coast Bal



30



Males 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 23 23 25 44 61 82 432

Females 19 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 26 27 42 56 67 262

Persons 34 35 36 38 39 40 42 43 46 49 51 86 117 149 338

Males 330 351 373 389 404 422 445 467 488 512 534 796 1,118 1,449 339

Females 442 464 488 513 537 563 588 614 640 668 698 1,040 1,466 1,895 329

Persons 772 815 861 901 941 985 1,033 1,081 1,128 1,180 1,232 1,836 2,584 3,344 333

Males 129 135 142 149 156 162 166 174 180 186 194 262 350 430 233

Females 198 208 218 229 237 246 255 264 273 281 288 374 490 604 204

Persons 327 343 360 378 393 408 421 438 453 467 483 635 840 1,033 216

Males 123 130 138 146 153 160 167 174 181 188 196 275 368 445 261

Females 167 177 183 191 199 206 214 222 226 235 242 336 460 582 248

Persons 291 307 321 337 352 366 381 395 407 423 438 611 828 1,028 254

Males 105 110 117 122 128 134 141 148 154 161 169 265 351 427 308

Females 184 192 200 209 216 225 232 242 252 262 272 420 605 745 305

Persons 289 302 317 332 344 359 373 390 406 423 441 684 955 1,172 306

Males 9 9 10 13 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 41 74 131 1,348

Females 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 22 29 34 439

Persons 15 16 17 20 21 23 24 25 26 28 30 63 103 165 975

Males 366 384 406 430 448 469 488 510 530 552 576 842 1,143 1,433 292

Females 556 583 608 637 661 686 711 739 763 790 815 1,152 1,584 1,965 253

Persons 922 968 1,015 1,067 1,110 1,155 1,199 1,249 1,293 1,341 1,391 1,993 2,727 3,398 269

Males 87 91 95 100 105 111 116 120 125 130 135 190 258 324 274

Females 116 122 128 133 137 142 147 152 157 163 168 237 329 404 249

Persons 203 213 224 232 243 253 262 272 282 293 302 427 587 729 260

Males 46 48 50 52 55 57 59 60 63 65 68 88 113 137 198

Females 57 59 62 64 66 69 71 74 76 78 81 112 157 198 251

Persons 103 107 112 116 121 126 130 135 139 143 149 200 270 335 227

Males 49 51 54 56 58 61 63 66 69 72 75 117 167 210 325

Females 70 72 76 79 81 83 85 88 90 92 96 147 210 259 271

Persons 119 124 130 134 140 144 148 154 159 164 171 264 378 468 293

East Gippsland

(total)

South Gippsland -

East

South Gippsland -

West

Latrobe -

Traralgon

Latrobe Bal

South Gippsland -

Central

Latrobe (total)

E. Gippsland Bal

Latrobe - Moe

Latrobe - Morwell



31



Males 182 191 199 208 218 230 238 247 257 267 277 394 539 671 269

Females 242 253 266 275 285 294 303 314 324 333 345 496 696 861 256

Persons 424 444 465 483 503 524 540 561 581 600 622 890 1,235 1,532 261

Males 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9

Persons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9

Males 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33

Persons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12

Persons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

French Island

Bass Strait Islands

Mount Hotham

Alpine Resort

Mount Stirling

Alpine Resort

Lady Julia Percy

Island

Lake Mountain

Alpine Resort

Mount Baw Baw

Alpine Resort

Mount Buller

Alpine Resort

Falls Creek Alpine

Resort

South Gippsland

(total)



32



Males 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0

Females 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Persons 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0

Males 42 44 47 48 52 53 56 58 59 62 64 93 129 162 282

Females 53 55 57 59 61 65 68 70 73 76 78 111 152 189 259

Persons 95 100 104 107 113 118 123 128 133 138 143 205 282 351 270

Males 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 29 30 32 33 54 75 93 345

Females 21 23 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 56 77 94 341

Persons 42 45 46 48 50 52 55 57 59 63 66 109 152 187 343

Males 66 72 75 80 84 88 94 98 102 109 115 179 264 349 432

Females 106 113 118 121 125 131 136 141 146 152 157 236 333 426 302

Persons 172 184 193 200 209 219 230 238 248 261 272 416 597 776 352

Males 40 43 46 48 50 53 54 57 58 61 65 95 128 157 292

Females 39 42 44 47 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 97 134 165 322

Persons 79 84 90 95 101 108 112 117 122 127 133 191 262 322 307

Males 78 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 119 168 225 273 249

Females 126 133 137 142 147 152 156 160 165 169 173 229 307 360 186

Persons 204 216 225 233 242 252 260 268 277 285 292 397 532 633 210

Males 247 264 278 291 306 321 336 350 363 380 397 588 822 1,034 319

Females 345 365 379 392 409 429 444 459 476 493 509 729 1,004 1,235 258

Persons 592 629 657 683 715 749 780 809 839 874 906 1,318 1,826 2,269 283

Males 1,586 1,678 1,772 1,860 1,947 2,041 2,134 2,233 2,323 2,429 2,533 3,739 5,185 6,613 317

Females 2,255 2,372 2,487 2,595 2,710 2,827 2,938 3,055 3,169 3,288 3,414 4,964 6,972 8,856 293

Persons 3,841 4,050 4,258 4,455 4,657 4,868 5,073 5,288 5,492 5,717 5,947 8,703 12,157 15,468 303

Wellington -

Alberton

Unincorporated

Vic (total)

Wellington -

Avon

Wellington -

Maffra

Wellington -

Rosedale

Wellington - Sale

Total (Gippsland)

Wellington (total)



33


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 80 83 87 92 98 104 108 113 117 122 126 186 262 363 354

Females 123 128 132 136 140 146 150 154 158 163 167 221 298 377 206

Persons 203 211 219 228 238 250 258 267 275 285 294 408 560 739 264

Males 80 83 87 92 98 104 108 113 117 122 126 186 262 363 354

Females 123 128 132 136 140 146 150 154 158 163 167 221 298 377 206

Persons 203 211 219 228 238 250 258 267 275 285 294 408 560 739 264

Males 189 197 204 212 218 225 233 240 247 255 263 375 529 694 266

Females 390 398 404 409 419 427 431 434 440 446 451 558 703 828 112

Persons 580 595 609 621 636 651 663 674 688 701 715 933 1,232 1,522 163

Males 157 169 180 192 205 219 233 248 261 276 292 477 699 955 509

Females 238 253 268 284 300 314 330 348 362 380 397 612 883 1,155 386

Persons 395 422 447 476 505 533 562 596 623 656 689 1,089 1,582 2,111 435

Males 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 11 13 147

Females 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 9 10 118

Persons 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 17 20 23 133

Males 117 127 136 146 155 164 174 185 197 208 219 345 481 605 415

Females 194 208 222 234 246 260 274 289 302 315 329 506 739 972 402

Persons 311 334 358 380 401 424 448 475 499 524 548 851 1,220 1,577 407

Males 469 498 526 555 583 614 645 680 712 746 781 1,206 1,720 2,267 383

Females 826 863 899 932 969 1,005 1,039 1,076 1,109 1,146 1,183 1,684 2,335 2,966 259

Persons 1,295 1,361 1,425 1,487 1,552 1,619 1,684 1,756 1,821 1,892 1,963 2,891 4,054 5,233 304

Males 28 29 30 32 34 35 36 38 39 41 44 77 108 135 374

Females 22 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 38 40 65 88 106 381

Persons 51 53 56 59 62 64 67 71 75 79 84 142 195 241 377

Males 34 36 40 42 44 46 49 51 54 57 60 118 174 230 573

Females 34 37 39 42 44 46 48 53 57 60 63 129 208 274 711

Persons 68 73 79 84 88 92 97 104 111 117 123 247 382 505 642

Males 63 65 70 74 78 81 85 89 93 98 104 195 281 365 483

Females 56 60 64 68 71 75 79 86 93 98 103 194 296 381 581

Persons 119 126 135 142 150 156 165 175 186 196 207 389 577 746 529

Ararat (total)

Ballarat (total)

Golden Plains

(total)

Ballarat - South

Golden Plains -

North-West

Golden Plains -

South-East

Ballarat - Central

Ballarat - Inner

North

Ballarat - North

Ararat



34


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 46 49 52 53 56 58 60 64 67 70 71 98 128 157 238

Females 69 71 73 74 78 79 82 85 86 88 91 123 169 215 211

Persons 115 119 124 128 134 137 143 149 153 158 162 220 297 372 222

Males 49 52 54 56 59 61 64 66 70 73 77 109 150 189 282

Females 65 67 70 73 76 79 81 85 88 91 94 134 187 242 273

Persons 114 118 124 129 135 140 145 151 158 164 171 244 337 431 277

Males 96 100 106 110 115 119 124 130 136 143 148 207 278 346 261

Females 134 137 143 147 154 158 164 170 174 179 185 257 356 457 241

Persons 230 238 249 257 269 278 288 300 311 321 332 464 635 803 249

Males 61 63 65 68 71 74 76 79 83 86 87 107 135 157 158

Females 102 104 106 110 114 117 120 122 126 127 129 148 184 219 115

Persons 163 167 171 178 184 191 197 201 208 212 216 255 319 376 131

Males 61 63 65 68 71 74 76 79 83 86 87 107 135 157 158

Females 102 104 106 110 114 117 120 122 126 127 129 148 184 219 115

Persons 163 167 171 178 184 191 197 201 208 212 216 255 319 376 131

Males 93 99 105 110 116 121 127 131 137 143 149 205 270 328 254

Females 170 180 189 197 206 212 223 229 236 244 249 326 431 526 210

Persons 263 279 294 307 321 333 349 361 373 387 399 531 701 854 225

Males 26 27 29 31 32 34 35 37 38 40 41 60 84 104 300

Females 27 28 30 32 34 37 39 41 42 44 45 70 105 135 408

Persons 53 56 60 62 67 71 74 78 80 84 85 130 189 239 354

Males 119 127 134 141 148 155 162 168 175 183 190 265 354 432 264

Females 197 208 219 229 240 249 261 270 278 288 294 396 537 661 236

Persons 315 335 354 370 388 404 423 439 453 471 484 661 890 1,093 247

Males 65 70 75 80 86 90 96 103 109 116 121 200 285 361 453

Females 112 118 124 134 139 145 151 161 169 178 189 307 448 606 440

Persons 177 188 199 214 225 235 247 265 278 293 310 507 733 967 445

Males 29 31 34 36 37 39 41 43 45 48 50 81 118 152 415

Females 37 39 42 44 46 49 52 55 56 58 60 96 147 193 421

Persons 66 71 76 80 84 88 93 98 101 105 109 177 265 344 418

Moorabool -

Bacchus Marsh

Hepburn - East

Hepburn - West

Hindmarsh

Moorabool -

Ballan

Hepburn (total)

Hindmarsh (total)

Horsham (total)

Horsham - Central

Horsham Bal



35


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 28 29 30 42 58 70 251

Females 20 21 24 26 27 31 33 34 36 38 40 63 86 117 483

Persons 40 42 46 48 51 56 59 62 64 68 70 104 143 188 368

Males 115 123 131 139 147 154 163 174 182 192 200 322 460 583 408

Females 169 178 189 203 212 225 236 250 261 274 289 465 680 915 441

Persons 284 301 321 342 360 379 399 424 444 466 489 788 1,141 1,499 428

Males 27 27 28 29 29 29 30 31 32 33 34 46 68 91 240

Females 37 39 40 41 42 43 45 47 48 48 50 71 102 141 280

Persons 64 66 68 69 71 72 76 78 80 81 84 118 170 231 263

Males 58 62 65 68 71 72 75 78 81 84 85 108 138 164 182

Females 93 97 99 102 106 109 112 113 115 119 120 142 181 209 124

Persons 152 159 164 170 177 181 186 191 196 203 205 250 318 373 146

Males 85 89 93 96 100 101 105 109 114 117 119 154 206 255 200

Females 130 135 139 143 148 152 157 160 162 166 170 213 283 350 169

Persons 215 224 232 239 247 253 262 269 276 283 289 367 488 605 181

Males 26 27 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 42 43 56 62 69 162

Females 32 33 34 35 37 40 42 43 44 45 46 64 91 114 254

Persons 59 60 63 66 69 73 76 80 83 86 89 120 153 183 213

Males 27 28 29 29 30 32 33 35 36 37 38 50 65 78 186

Females 31 32 34 36 37 39 40 43 44 45 46 61 80 94 205

Persons 58 60 63 66 67 71 74 78 80 82 84 111 145 172 196

Males 53 55 58 60 61 65 68 71 75 79 81 106 127 147 175

Females 63 65 69 72 75 79 82 86 88 89 91 125 171 208 230

Persons 117 120 127 132 136 144 150 157 163 168 173 231 298 355 204

Males 28 30 31 33 33 34 37 38 39 40 43 51 61 70 147

Females 50 51 52 54 55 55 56 57 58 60 61 78 105 127 156

Persons 78 81 83 86 88 89 93 96 97 100 104 129 166 197 153

Males 28 30 31 33 33 34 37 38 39 40 43 51 61 70 147

Females 50 51 52 54 55 55 56 57 58 60 61 78 105 127 156

Persons 78 81 83 86 88 89 93 96 97 100 104 129 166 197 153

Pyrenees (total)

West Wimmera

(total)

West Wimmera

N. Grampians -

Stawell

Pyrenees - South

Pyrenees - North

Northern

Grampians (total)

Moorabool - West

N. Grampians - St

Arnaud

Moorabool (total)



36


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 19 19 20 22 24 26 76

Females 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 35 44 50 126

Persons 37 38 38 40 41 42 44 45 46 47 48 57 68 75 106

Males 51 53 54 56 57 58 61 62 64 65 66 75 90 103 102

Females 77 82 84 86 88 90 91 91 95 96 97 115 153 195 153

Persons 128 135 139 142 145 148 152 153 159 161 163 190 243 298 133

Males 65 68 70 72 73 75 79 81 83 84 86 97 114 128 96

Females 99 104 107 110 113 116 117 118 122 123 126 150 197 245 147

Persons 164 173 177 182 186 191 196 198 205 208 211 248 310 373 127

Males 1,234 1,302 1,372 1,440 1,508 1,576 1,652 1,733 1,809 1,889 1,965 2,897 3,998 5,113 314

Females 1,949 2,035 2,120 2,203 2,291 2,377 2,462 2,549 2,629 2,714 2,797 3,933 5,441 6,906 254

Persons 3,182 3,336 3,492 3,644 3,799 3,953 4,115 4,282 4,438 4,603 4,762 6,830 9,439 12,019 278

Yarriambiack -

North

Yarriambiack -

South

Yarriambiack

(total)

Total (Grampian)



37


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 57 60 63 65 69 71 73 76 78 80 82 106 139 166 193

Females 76 79 82 85 90 92 96 98 99 101 104 139 186 219 190

Persons 132 139 145 150 159 164 169 174 177 181 186 245 326 385 191

Males 33 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 47 49 52 70 89 104 214

Females 53 54 56 58 60 62 63 66 68 70 71 94 127 155 195

Persons 86 89 92 96 100 103 107 112 115 119 123 164 216 259 202

Males 90 94 99 103 108 113 117 121 125 129 134 176 228 270 201

Females 128 134 139 143 150 154 159 164 167 171 175 233 313 374 192

Persons 218 227 237 246 259 267 275 285 292 300 308 409 542 644 196

Males 78 82 86 90 94 97 101 104 107 110 113 145 186 218 178

Females 150 155 164 170 175 180 184 191 196 199 206 246 300 346 131

Persons 228 238 250 260 268 277 285 295 303 309 318 391 486 563 147

Males 23 24 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 33 34 51 69 87 278

Females 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 44 63 79 372

Persons 40 42 43 44 47 48 51 54 56 58 61 95 132 166 318

Males 101 106 111 115 120 124 130 134 139 143 146 196 255 305 201

Females 167 173 182 189 195 202 207 215 221 225 233 290 363 425 155

Persons 268 279 293 305 315 326 336 349 359 368 379 486 618 729 172

Males 243 257 272 284 301 315 331 348 365 384 400 575 794 998 311

Females 387 410 433 450 471 488 511 531 550 570 590 822 1,143 1,468 279

Persons 630 667 705 734 772 803 842 880 916 954 990 1,397 1,937 2,465 291

Males 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 29 30 46 53 60 203

Females 22 23 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 32 33 50 68 88 308

Persons 41 44 47 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 96 122 147 258

Males 55 59 64 68 71 75 82 86 90 92 100 148 191 246 347

Females 73 78 81 85 88 92 96 98 102 106 110 150 207 258 253

Persons 128 137 145 152 160 167 178 185 192 199 210 298 399 505 294

Males 318 337 358 375 395 414 438 461 483 505 530 768 1,039 1,304 310

Females 482 510 539 560 586 607 635 660 683 708 733 1,022 1,419 1,814 277

Persons 799 847 897 935 982 1,021 1,073 1,121 1,166 1,213 1,263 1,790 2,458 3,118 290

Alpine (total)

Benalla (total)

Greater

Shepparton

(total)

Gr. Shepparton -

Pt B East

Gr. Shepparton -

Pt B West

Benalla - Benalla

Benalla Bal

Gr. Shepparton -

Pt A

Alpine - East

Alpine - West



38


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 51 53 56 60 64 67 69 72 76 79 83 120 150 176 246

Females 83 87 90 93 96 99 102 105 109 113 117 169 230 271 226

Persons 134 140 146 153 160 166 172 177 184 192 199 289 380 447 233

Males 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 46 59 70 239

Females 34 35 36 36 37 39 41 42 43 44 45 72 102 126 276

Persons 54 57 58 60 61 64 67 68 71 74 76 118 160 196 262

Males 72 75 79 83 88 92 95 99 104 109 114 165 209 247 244

Females 117 122 126 129 133 138 143 147 151 157 162 242 331 397 240

Persons 188 197 204 213 221 230 238 246 255 266 276 407 540 643 242

Males 47 50 52 55 59 62 65 68 71 77 80 130 188 246 423

Females 64 68 70 73 77 79 82 87 90 94 99 162 245 325 409

Persons 111 118 122 128 135 140 147 155 162 171 179 291 432 570 415

Males 47 50 52 55 59 62 65 68 71 77 80 130 188 246 423

Females 64 68 70 73 77 79 82 87 90 94 99 162 245 325 409

Persons 111 118 122 128 135 140 147 155 162 171 179 291 432 570 415

Males 54 57 60 62 64 67 69 72 74 77 79 103 134 162 199

Females 71 75 79 82 85 88 91 94 95 96 99 133 186 226 216

Persons 125 132 139 144 149 155 160 165 168 173 178 236 320 387 209

Males 72 79 85 91 98 106 114 123 132 142 152 279 409 531 633

Females 94 103 113 120 128 137 147 158 168 177 187 348 552 731 675

Persons 167 182 198 211 226 243 261 281 300 319 339 627 961 1,261 657

Males 126 136 144 153 162 173 184 195 206 219 230 382 543 692 448

Females 166 178 192 202 213 225 238 251 262 273 287 481 738 957 477

Persons 292 314 337 355 375 398 421 446 468 492 517 863 1,281 1,649 464

Males 86 91 96 103 109 113 120 125 131 135 140 203 287 368 330

Females 110 116 123 130 137 143 151 157 165 172 178 257 363 474 332

Persons 195 207 218 233 246 256 270 282 296 307 317 459 650 842 331

Males 135 143 150 156 163 169 176 183 190 198 206 289 390 484 259

Females 179 184 190 198 205 213 223 232 242 250 259 357 487 595 233

Persons 314 327 340 355 368 383 399 415 432 449 465 646 877 1,078 244

Indigo - Pt A

Indigo - Pt B

Mansfield

Mitchell - North

Indigo (total)

Mansfield (total)

Mitchell - South

Moira - East

Moira - West

Mitchell (total)



39


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 221 233 246 260 272 282 296 308 321 333 346 492 677 852 286

Females 289 300 313 328 342 357 374 389 408 423 437 613 851 1,068 270

Persons 509 534 559 588 614 639 670 697 728 756 783 1,105 1,527 1,920 277

Males 57 61 64 69 72 76 81 84 88 91 95 134 184 234 310

Females 71 76 81 85 89 95 100 106 110 115 119 165 238 304 326

Persons 128 138 145 154 161 172 181 190 198 206 215 299 423 538 319

Males 32 33 36 37 39 41 43 45 46 48 50 84 121 156 389

Females 41 42 43 45 45 47 49 51 53 55 58 101 142 174 327

Persons 73 75 79 82 84 88 91 95 100 103 108 185 263 331 354

Males 89 95 99 106 111 117 124 129 134 139 146 219 306 390 339

Females 112 118 124 130 134 142 149 157 164 170 177 266 380 479 327

Persons 201 213 224 236 245 260 272 285 298 310 323 485 686 869 332

Males 78 81 86 89 93 96 99 102 105 107 110 148 196 235 203

Females 110 114 116 121 124 127 129 132 136 139 142 198 274 331 200

Persons 188 194 202 210 217 222 228 234 241 247 253 346 471 566 201

Males 78 81 86 89 93 96 99 102 105 107 110 148 196 235 203

Females 110 114 116 121 124 127 129 132 136 139 142 198 274 331 200

Persons 188 194 202 210 217 222 228 234 241 247 253 346 471 566 201

Males 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 27 34 41 47 154

Females 27 26 27 27 28 30 31 32 33 34 35 48 62 76 185

Persons 45 46 47 48 51 52 56 57 59 60 63 81 104 123 172

Males 33 35 36 38 38 39 41 41 42 43 45 53 62 70 110

Females 43 45 46 48 51 52 55 58 60 62 62 81 106 132 205

Persons 77 80 82 85 89 92 96 99 102 104 107 134 167 202 164

Males 52 54 56 59 60 62 65 66 68 69 72 87 103 117 126

Females 70 72 74 75 80 82 87 90 92 96 97 128 168 209 197

Persons 122 126 129 134 140 144 152 156 160 165 170 216 271 326 167

Males 88 91 93 95 97 100 102 104 107 110 114 154 192 226 156

Females 171 179 182 185 191 195 201 205 209 214 218 270 334 388 127

Persons 259 269 275 280 288 295 302 309 316 324 332 423 527 615 137

Murrindindi - East

Murrindindi -

West

Strathbogie

Towong - Pt A

Towong - Pt B

Wangaratta -

Central

Moira (total)

Murrindindi

(total)

Strathbogie

(total)

Towong (total)



40


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 35 37 39 40 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 95 126 152 334

Females 52 53 55 57 60 62 63 66 68 71 74 111 152 182 254

Persons 87 90 94 97 102 107 112 117 122 128 134 206 278 334 286

Males 30 32 33 34 36 38 39 40 42 44 46 64 83 100 236

Females 31 33 34 36 38 40 42 43 45 46 47 73 109 139 351

Persons 61 65 67 70 74 78 81 83 87 89 93 137 192 239 295

Males 153 160 164 169 174 183 190 196 203 211 220 313 401 478 212

Females 253 264 271 278 289 297 306 313 322 331 339 454 595 710 180

Persons 406 424 436 448 464 480 495 509 525 542 559 767 996 1,188 192

Males 120 126 133 140 146 153 160 168 175 182 190 295 388 467 290

Females 169 175 182 188 194 201 208 215 223 232 240 365 495 593 251

Persons 289 302 315 328 341 354 368 383 398 414 430 660 883 1,060 267

Males 120 126 133 140 146 153 160 168 175 182 190 295 388 467 290

Females 169 175 182 188 194 201 208 215 223 232 240 365 495 593 251

Persons 289 302 315 328 341 354 368 383 398 414 430 660 883 1,060 267

Males 1,466 1,547 1,627 1,707 1,788 1,871 1,962 2,047 2,133 2,224 2,318 3,371 4,533 5,601 282

Females 2,126 2,228 2,328 2,417 2,518 2,610 2,714 2,818 2,919 3,018 3,121 4,455 6,173 7,680 261

Persons 3,592 3,774 3,955 4,124 4,306 4,481 4,676 4,866 5,052 5,242 5,439 7,825 10,706 13,281 270

Wangaratta -

South

Wodonga

Total (Hume)

Wangaratta

(total)

Wodonga (total)

Wangaratta -

North



41


Loddon Mallee 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 38 40 41 42 55 62 74 164

Females 44 47 48 50 51 52 54 55 54 55 56 68 89 109 146

Persons 72 76 78 81 83 85 88 93 94 95 98 122 151 183 153

Males 32 32 33 35 36 38 38 38 40 42 43 57 75 91 188

Females 50 51 53 52 55 57 58 59 59 61 63 90 131 179 258

Persons 82 84 86 87 91 95 96 98 100 103 107 147 207 270 231

Males 60 62 63 66 68 71 72 76 80 83 85 112 137 165 177

Females 95 98 101 102 106 109 112 114 113 116 119 158 220 289 205

Persons 154 160 164 168 174 180 184 191 194 198 205 270 358 454 194

Males 82 86 90 94 99 104 107 113 120 128 134 201 275 350 324

Females 134 138 144 147 154 160 166 175 181 188 194 292 422 556 316

Persons 216 225 234 241 253 264 273 289 301 316 328 492 697 906 319

Males 94 100 108 113 119 126 131 137 144 150 154 222 312 396 320

Females 131 136 143 150 156 164 169 175 183 188 195 263 362 462 253

Persons 225 236 250 263 275 289 300 312 326 338 349 486 675 858 281

Males 45 48 50 51 52 54 55 57 59 61 63 89 121 148 227

Females 61 63 65 65 66 68 70 73 74 76 78 109 156 197 224

Persons 106 110 115 116 118 122 125 130 133 137 140 198 277 345 225

Males 29 31 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 44 45 62 84 110 279

Females 33 35 36 37 38 40 41 43 44 46 48 68 98 126 283

Persons 62 65 68 71 73 76 79 83 86 89 93 130 182 236 281

Males 251 265 280 291 305 319 331 347 364 382 395 574 792 1,004 300

Females 358 372 387 399 413 431 447 466 482 498 515 733 1,039 1,341 274

Persons 609 637 667 690 718 750 778 814 846 880 910 1,306 1,831 2,345 285

Males 70 73 75 79 80 82 86 88 90 92 95 118 146 171 143

Females 110 114 118 122 124 128 131 135 139 142 146 195 268 343 212

Persons 180 188 193 200 204 210 217 223 229 235 240 313 415 514 185

Males 38 41 43 45 46 49 50 53 55 55 57 68 80 90 137

Females 44 46 48 51 54 56 59 60 61 65 67 91 123 161 270

Persons 82 87 91 96 100 105 109 113 116 120 124 158 203 251 208

Buloke (total)

Campaspe (total)

Campaspe - South

C. Goldfields -

M'borough

C. Goldfields Bal

Campaspe -

Echuca

Campaspe -

Kyabram

Campaspe -

Rochester

Buloke - North

Buloke - South



42



Males 108 114 118 123 126 130 136 142 145 148 152 186 227 260 141

Females 154 161 166 173 178 184 190 195 201 207 212 286 391 505 228

Persons 262 274 284 297 304 315 326 337 346 355 364 472 617 765 192

Males 89 94 98 101 106 111 116 120 124 128 132 186 247 332 274

Females 128 133 139 144 150 152 156 159 163 168 171 227 309 394 207

Persons 217 227 237 245 255 263 272 280 287 296 303 413 556 726 234

Males 89 94 98 101 106 111 116 120 124 128 132 186 247 332 274

Females 128 133 139 144 150 152 156 159 163 168 171 227 309 394 207

Persons 217 227 237 245 255 263 272 280 287 296 303 413 556 726 234

Males 103 107 110 114 117 121 125 130 135 139 144 192 241 286 178

Females 173 176 179 183 186 189 194 197 202 205 210 267 354 437 152

Persons 276 283 289 297 303 310 320 327 337 344 354 459 595 723 162

Males 43 45 47 49 50 54 56 59 61 65 67 104 142 174 301

Females 96 97 101 102 105 107 110 115 121 124 126 180 243 298 211

Persons 139 143 148 151 155 161 166 174 182 188 193 284 385 473 239

Males 180 189 201 213 225 234 244 261 273 284 296 454 670 959 433

Females 312 327 342 360 374 388 404 416 432 443 457 604 830 1,063 241

Persons 491 516 544 573 598 623 648 677 704 727 753 1,058 1,501 2,021 311

Males 49 52 56 60 67 73 77 82 88 95 103 178 255 347 611

Females 68 75 79 85 93 99 105 110 119 125 135 229 338 456 568

Persons 117 128 135 145 160 172 182 192 206 221 238 408 593 803 586

Males 78 83 89 94 99 107 113 120 128 134 142 231 347 463 496

Females 118 126 134 140 146 153 159 165 174 180 189 302 449 589 397

Persons 196 209 223 234 245 259 272 286 301 314 331 533 796 1,052 436

Males 20 21 23 25 26 27 30 32 34 36 42 79 121 165 731

Females 18 19 21 22 24 26 28 30 32 35 37 73 104 130 620

Persons 38 40 44 47 50 53 57 62 66 71 79 152 226 295 678

Males 73 77 82 86 90 94 99 104 107 111 119 189 273 369 407

Females 72 75 79 83 90 94 99 103 108 116 122 200 279 365 409

Persons 144 152 161 169 179 188 197 207 215 227 241 388 552 733 408

Central

Goldfields (total)

Gannawarra

(total)

Gr. Bendigo -

S'saye

Gr. Bendigo - Pt B

Gr. Bendigo -

Inner East

Gr. Bendigo -

Inner North

Gr. Bendigo -

Inner West

Gannawarra

Gr. Bendigo -

Central

Gr. Bendigo -

Eaglehawk



43



Males 545 574 609 639 673 711 744 787 825 864 913 1,426 2,050 2,763 407

Females 857 896 936 976 1,018 1,056 1,098 1,137 1,187 1,228 1,276 1,855 2,597 3,338 290

Persons 1,402 1,470 1,544 1,615 1,691 1,767 1,843 1,924 2,012 2,092 2,189 3,281 4,647 6,102 335

Males 22 23 23 23 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 32 37 41 85

Females 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 37 46 52 89

Persons 49 50 51 52 52 52 52 53 53 53 54 69 83 92 87

Males 43 43 43 45 45 47 48 49 50 51 53 64 74 80 88

Females 40 43 45 47 47 49 50 51 53 54 55 73 103 128 219

Persons 83 86 88 92 93 96 98 101 103 105 107 137 177 208 151

Males 65 65 66 69 69 72 73 74 75 76 78 96 111 121 87

Females 68 71 73 75 75 77 78 80 81 82 83 111 149 180 167

Persons 132 136 139 143 145 148 151 153 156 158 161 207 260 301 128

Males 49 52 55 58 62 64 67 69 72 75 77 115 150 178 264

Females 80 82 86 90 93 96 99 104 108 112 116 170 237 293 266

Persons 129 134 141 148 155 160 166 173 181 188 194 285 388 472 265

Males 39 43 46 48 51 54 58 63 66 70 73 121 169 212 442

Females 43 45 48 50 52 55 58 61 64 68 71 127 190 243 462

Persons 82 88 94 97 102 109 116 124 130 138 145 248 359 456 452

Males 87 95 103 111 117 123 131 139 148 157 163 259 372 482 452

Females 125 134 143 151 159 167 176 186 194 202 212 332 490 654 425

Persons 212 228 246 262 276 290 307 325 342 359 375 590 863 1,135 436

Males 176 189 204 217 229 242 255 271 286 302 314 495 692 873 397

Females 248 261 277 290 304 318 333 350 366 383 400 629 917 1,190 380

Persons 423 451 481 507 533 560 589 622 653 685 714 1,123 1,609 2,063 387

Males 258 277 295 311 327 343 360 380 396 412 426 617 863 1,094 325

Females 414 437 459 483 502 521 544 564 589 611 633 888 1,271 1,655 299

Persons 672 714 754 794 829 864 905 944 985 1,024 1,059 1,505 2,134 2,750 309

Males 25 26 27 28 28 28 29 31 31 32 32 45 63 77 205

Females 27 28 28 30 30 30 31 32 32 33 33 43 52 57 109

Persons 52 54 55 57 58 58 60 62 63 65 65 88 115 134 155

Greater Bendigo

(total)

Loddon (total)

Macedon Ranges

Bal

Mildura - Pt A

Mildura - Pt B

Macedon Ranges

(total)

Loddon - South

Macedon Ranges -

Kyneton

Macedon Ranges -

Romsey

Loddon - North



44



Males 283 303 322 339 355 371 390 411 428 445 459 662 925 1,171 314

Females 442 465 487 512 532 551 575 595 621 644 666 931 1,323 1,712 288

Persons 724 768 809 851 887 922 965 1,006 1,048 1,089 1,125 1,593 2,248 2,883 298

Males 63 65 68 71 74 76 78 80 82 86 88 119 155 183 194

Females 118 122 127 129 131 132 136 139 144 145 148 193 275 347 194

Persons 181 187 195 200 204 208 214 219 226 231 236 313 431 531 194

Males 59 61 63 66 68 71 74 77 81 83 87 133 183 230 290

Females 72 75 78 81 84 86 89 92 96 100 104 158 214 266 269

Persons 131 135 141 147 151 157 163 169 177 184 191 291 397 496 279

Males 121 126 131 137 141 147 152 157 163 169 175 253 339 413 241

Females 190 196 204 210 214 218 225 231 240 246 252 352 489 613 222

Persons 312 322 336 347 356 365 377 388 403 415 427 604 828 1,026 229

Males 57 59 62 64 66 67 70 73 75 77 79 114 150 182 221

Females 84 87 89 91 94 96 98 99 101 104 106 146 185 211 151

Persons 141 146 151 156 159 163 167 172 176 180 185 259 335 393 179

Males 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 19 26 32 38 170

Females 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 36 49 58 171

Persons 36 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 42 42 43 62 81 96 171

Males 44 46 48 50 51 54 55 57 58 60 63 80 99 117 168

Females 44 45 46 49 49 51 53 55 58 60 63 85 122 155 249

Persons 88 92 94 99 100 105 108 112 117 121 126 165 221 272 209

Males 114 120 124 129 132 137 141 146 151 155 160 219 282 337 195

Females 150 154 158 162 165 170 174 179 184 188 193 267 355 424 182

Persons 264 274 282 291 297 306 315 325 335 343 354 486 637 761 188

Males 1,812 1,911 2,017 2,111 2,205 2,309 2,411 2,532 2,642 2,752 2,864 4,208 5,802 7,440 311

Females 2,689 2,807 2,927 3,044 3,156 3,266 3,388 3,507 3,637 3,760 3,888 5,546 7,790 9,986 271

Persons 4,501 4,718 4,944 5,155 5,361 5,575 5,799 6,039 6,279 6,512 6,752 9,754 13,592 17,425 287

Mount Alexander -

C'maine

Mount Alexander

Bal

Swan Hill -

Central

Swan Hill -

Robinvale

Swan Hill Bal

Total (Loddon

Mallee)

Mildura (total)

Mount Alexander

(total)

Swan Hill (total)



45

Table 3.35: Prevalence projections, LGAs by Health Regions, total

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Eastern Metropolitan Region

Boroondara 2,454 2,520 2,573 2,625 2,690 2,750 2,813 2,873 2,934 2,998 3,058 4,032 5,341 6,460 163

Knox 1,506 1,590 1,673 1,754 1,836 1,920 2,007 2,099 2,192 2,287 2,376 3,535 4,908 6,081 304

Manningham 1,668 1,774 1,879 1,981 2,088 2,191 2,301 2,407 2,510 2,617 2,719 3,755 5,166 6,350 281

Maroondah 1,254 1,326 1,394 1,462 1,527 1,594 1,665 1,738 1,808 1,877 1,948 2,812 3,845 4,688 274

Monash 2,516 2,636 2,756 2,860 2,985 3,110 3,238 3,356 3,464 3,587 3,699 4,929 6,766 8,405 234

Whitehorse 2,233 2,304 2,361 2,418 2,473 2,534 2,593 2,651 2,705 2,762 2,820 3,673 4,817 5,748 157

Yarra Ranges 1,422 1,510 1,591 1,677 1,758 1,851 1,945 2,038 2,126 2,218 2,321 3,535 4,977 6,330 345

Total 13,052 13,660 14,227 14,778 15,358 15,950 16,562 17,161 17,739 18,346 18,941 26,270 35,821 44,061 238

North and West Metropolitan Region

Banyule 1,808 1,891 1,969 2,039 2,116 2,196 2,278 2,357 2,431 2,506 2,588 3,524 4,816 6,035 234

Brimbank 1,633 1,730 1,824 1,916 2,010 2,120 2,235 2,340 2,447 2,563 2,688 4,078 5,707 7,356 350

Darebin 2,000 2,081 2,165 2,244 2,325 2,407 2,483 2,560 2,636 2,709 2,792 3,540 4,558 5,591 180

Hobsons Bay 1,086 1,143 1,198 1,250 1,304 1,359 1,417 1,481 1,538 1,594 1,645 2,261 3,072 3,862 256

Hume 1,094 1,178 1,265 1,348 1,436 1,532 1,631 1,740 1,841 1,944 2,053 3,268 4,644 5,938 443

Maribyrnong 762 783 797 813 829 847 866 884 898 914 936 1,242 1,648 2,020 165

Melbourne 519 551 588 625 665 712 762 816 872 930 989 1,827 2,882 3,856 643

Melton 532 598 666 735 803 875 950 1,026 1,105 1,187 1,272 2,408 3,719 4,962 833

Moonee Valley 1,555 1,627 1,695 1,759 1,821 1,883 1,950 2,015 2,079 2,142 2,196 2,939 3,978 4,838 211

Moreland 2,097 2,177 2,246 2,311 2,375 2,435 2,491 2,536 2,580 2,628 2,672 3,119 3,806 4,259 103

Nillumbik 423 447 474 501 527 556 587 621 656 688 725 1,217 1,817 2,343 454

Whittlesea 1,058 1,140 1,227 1,313 1,404 1,500 1,599 1,704 1,804 1,914 2,026 3,244 4,544 5,705 439

Wyndham 745 811 878 951 1,024 1,100 1,180 1,264 1,352 1,441 1,536 2,812 4,199 5,386 623

Yarra 655 684 711 735 763 793 820 847 879 913 944 1,355 1,901 2,396 266

Total 15,965 16,841 17,703 18,538 19,403 20,315 21,250 22,192 23,118 24,075 25,060 36,834 51,291 64,545 304 Source: Access Economics calculations.


46

Table 3.36: Prevalence projections, LGAs by Health Regions, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Southern Metropolitan Region

Bayside 1,694 1,732 1,766 1,806 1,838 1,871 1,911 1,954 1,995 2,030 2,075 2,752 3,650 4,459 163

Cardinia 582 630 677 730 784 844 905 972 1,041 1,111 1,186 2,190 3,398 4,559 683

Casey 1,668 1,793 1,918 2,044 2,170 2,309 2,454 2,608 2,758 2,917 3,082 5,119 7,516 9,677 480

Frankston 1,511 1,577 1,647 1,717 1,788 1,867 1,949 2,030 2,109 2,196 2,281 3,331 4,581 5,831 286

Glen Eira 2,176 2,232 2,288 2,330 2,371 2,415 2,461 2,506 2,542 2,577 2,620 3,339 4,332 5,090 134

Greater Dandenong 1,678 1,771 1,863 1,946 2,034 2,132 2,226 2,321 2,414 2,504 2,600 3,734 5,163 6,556 291

Kingston 1,838 1,894 1,950 1,997 2,052 2,103 2,158 2,213 2,263 2,325 2,385 3,278 4,304 5,103 178

Mornington Peninsula 2,601 2,733 2,863 2,992 3,120 3,248 3,385 3,520 3,650 3,789 3,928 5,716 7,987 10,018 285

Port Phillip 885 912 939 966 994 1,029 1,058 1,092 1,125 1,165 1,211 1,819 2,578 3,272 270

Stonnington 1,366 1,427 1,480 1,530 1,578 1,635 1,698 1,758 1,811 1,867 1,928 2,705 3,730 4,732 246

Total 15,999 16,701 17,390 18,058 18,728 19,453 20,205 20,974 21,710 22,482 23,294 33,982 47,237 59,296 271

Barwon-South Western Region

Colac-Otway 337 350 363 375 385 404 416 429 445 456 472 644 886 1,111 230

Corangamite 276 292 306 319 329 340 357 370 380 391 402 538 723 920 233

Glenelg 305 319 332 346 357 372 387 402 416 429 445 622 831 1,028 237

Greater Geelong 3,257 3,418 3,572 3,734 3,890 4,050 4,225 4,394 4,562 4,725 4,888 7,016 9,780 12,552 285

Moyne 213 220 225 232 240 246 252 258 266 273 280 397 540 651 205

Queenscliffe 108 111 116 119 123 125 128 131 134 137 140 182 247 302 180

Southern Grampians 315 326 337 347 361 373 384 394 403 415 423 568 747 880 179

Surf Coast 302 317 336 352 367 385 402 423 445 465 488 758 1,088 1,377 356

Warrnambool 424 441 457 473 488 503 519 538 557 576 600 864 1,187 1,473 248

Total 5,537 5,794 6,043 6,298 6,540 6,798 7,070 7,339 7,609 7,867 8,137 11,589 16,030 20,294 267

Gippsland Region

Bass Coast 567 595 625 653 685 715 742 776 802 831 860 1,242 1,741 2,233 294

Baw Baw 560 597 632 665 700 736 775 810 847 889 933 1,420 2,041 2,688 380

East Gippsland 772 815 861 901 941 985 1,033 1,081 1,128 1,180 1,232 1,836 2,584 3,344 333

Latrobe 922 968 1,015 1,067 1,110 1,155 1,199 1,249 1,293 1,341 1,391 1,993 2,727 3,398 269

South Gippsland 424 444 465 483 503 524 540 561 581 600 622 890 1,235 1,532 261

Unincorporated Vic 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10

Wellington 592 629 657 683 715 749 780 809 839 874 906 1,318 1,826 2,269 283



47


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Grampian Region

Ararat 203 211 219 228 238 250 258 267 275 285 294 408 560 739 264

Ballarat 1,295 1,361 1,425 1,487 1,552 1,619 1,684 1,756 1,821 1,892 1,963 2,891 4,054 5,233 304

Golden Plains 119 126 135 142 150 156 165 175 186 196 207 389 577 746 529

Hepburn 230 238 249 257 269 278 288 300 311 321 332 464 635 803 249

Hindmarsh 163 167 171 178 184 191 197 201 208 212 216 255 319 376 131

Horsham 315 335 354 370 388 404 423 439 453 471 484 661 890 1,093 247

Moorabool 284 301 321 342 360 379 399 424 444 466 489 788 1,141 1,499 428

Northern Grampians 215 224 232 239 247 253 262 269 276 283 289 367 488 605 181

Pyrenees 117 120 127 132 136 144 150 157 163 168 173 231 298 355 204

West Wimmera 78 81 83 86 88 89 93 96 97 100 104 129 166 197 153

Yarriambiack 164 173 177 182 186 191 196 198 205 208 211 248 310 373 127

Total 3,182 3,336 3,492 3,644 3,799 3,953 4,115 4,282 4,438 4,603 4,762 6,830 9,439 12,019 278

Hume Region

Alpine 218 227 237 246 259 267 275 285 292 300 308 409 542 644 196

Benalla 268 279 293 305 315 326 336 349 359 368 379 486 618 729 172

Greater Shepparton 799 847 897 935 982 1,021 1,073 1,121 1,166 1,213 1,263 1,790 2,458 3,118 290

Indigo 188 197 204 213 221 230 238 246 255 266 276 407 540 643 242

Mansfield 111 118 122 128 135 140 147 155 162 171 179 291 432 570 415

Mitchell 292 314 337 355 375 398 421 446 468 492 517 863 1,281 1,649 464

Moira 509 534 559 588 614 639 670 697 728 756 783 1,105 1,527 1,920 277

Murrindindi 201 213 224 236 245 260 272 285 298 310 323 485 686 869 332

Strathbogie 188 194 202 210 217 222 228 234 241 247 253 346 471 566 201

Towong 122 126 129 134 140 144 152 156 160 165 170 216 271 326 167

Wangaratta 406 424 436 448 464 480 495 509 525 542 559 767 996 1,188 192

Wodonga 289 302 315 328 341 354 368 383 398 414 430 660 883 1,060 267



48


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Loddon Mallee Region

Buloke 154 160 164 168 174 180 184 191 194 198 205 270 358 454 194

Campaspe 609 637 667 690 718 750 778 814 846 880 910 1,306 1,831 2,345 285

Central Goldfields 262 274 284 297 304 315 326 337 346 355 364 472 617 765 192

Gannawarra 217 227 237 245 255 263 272 280 287 296 303 413 556 726 234

Greater Bendigo 1,402 1,470 1,544 1,615 1,691 1,767 1,843 1,924 2,012 2,092 2,189 3,281 4,647 6,102 335

Loddon 132 136 139 143 145 148 151 153 156 158 161 207 260 301 128

Macedon Ranges 423 451 481 507 533 560 589 622 653 685 714 1,123 1,609 2,063 387

Mildura 724 768 809 851 887 922 965 1,006 1,048 1,089 1,125 1,593 2,248 2,883 298

Mount Alexander 312 322 336 347 356 365 377 388 403 415 427 604 828 1,026 229

Swan Hill 264 274 282 291 297 306 315 325 335 343 354 486 637 761 188

Total 4,501 4,718 4,944 5,155 5,361 5,575 5,799 6,039 6,279 6,512 6,752 9,754 13,592 17,425 287

Total (VIC) 65,669 68,876 72,013 75,050 78,151 81,393 84,748 88,142 91,438 94,844 98,332 141,788 196,271 246,389 275 Source: Access Economics calculations.


49

Table 3.39: Prevalence projections, Department of Health regions, total

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 5,065 5,346 5,619 5,886 6,158 6,435 6,724 7,014 7,287 7,569 7,856 11,130 15,019 18,567 267

Females 7,987 8,314 8,608 8,892 9,200 9,515 9,838 10,147 10,452 10,777 11,084 15,140 20,802 25,494 219

Persons 13,052 13,660 14,227 14,778 15,358 15,950 16,562 17,161 17,739 18,346 18,941 26,270 35,821 44,061 238

Males 6,460 6,849 7,231 7,607 8,004 8,409 8,844 9,273 9,710 10,153 10,611 15,949 22,056 27,903 332

Females 9,505 9,992 10,472 10,931 11,399 11,906 12,406 12,919 13,408 13,922 14,449 20,886 29,234 36,642 285

Persons 15,965 16,841 17,703 18,538 19,403 20,315 21,250 22,192 23,118 24,075 25,060 36,834 51,291 64,545 304

Males 6,301 6,625 6,940 7,262 7,588 7,928 8,288 8,655 9,010 9,389 9,786 14,668 20,327 25,651 307

Females 9,698 10,077 10,450 10,796 11,140 11,525 11,917 12,319 12,700 13,093 13,508 19,314 26,910 33,645 247

Persons 15,999 16,701 17,390 18,058 18,728 19,453 20,205 20,974 21,710 22,482 23,294 33,982 47,237 59,296 271

Males 17,826 18,820 19,791 20,755 21,750 22,772 23,856 24,942 26,008 27,112 28,253 41,747 57,402 72,122 305

Females 27,190 28,383 29,530 30,620 31,739 32,947 34,161 35,385 36,559 37,791 39,042 55,339 76,946 95,780 252

Persons 45,016 47,203 49,321 51,374 53,489 55,718 58,016 60,327 62,567 64,903 67,295 97,087 134,348 167,902 273

Males 2,133 2,240 2,353 2,464 2,571 2,678 2,804 2,928 3,055 3,170 3,286 4,796 6,542 8,281 288

Females 3,404 3,554 3,690 3,834 3,969 4,119 4,265 4,411 4,554 4,697 4,851 6,794 9,488 12,014 253

Persons 5,537 5,794 6,043 6,298 6,540 6,798 7,070 7,339 7,609 7,867 8,137 11,589 16,030 20,294 267

Males 1,586 1,678 1,772 1,860 1,947 2,041 2,134 2,233 2,323 2,429 2,533 3,739 5,185 6,613 317

Females 2,255 2,372 2,487 2,595 2,710 2,827 2,938 3,055 3,169 3,288 3,414 4,964 6,972 8,856 293

Persons 3,841 4,050 4,258 4,455 4,657 4,868 5,073 5,288 5,492 5,717 5,947 8,703 12,157 15,468 303

Males 1,234 1,302 1,372 1,440 1,508 1,576 1,652 1,733 1,809 1,889 1,965 2,897 3,998 5,113 314

Females 1,949 2,035 2,120 2,203 2,291 2,377 2,462 2,549 2,629 2,714 2,797 3,933 5,441 6,906 254

Persons 3,182 3,336 3,492 3,644 3,799 3,953 4,115 4,282 4,438 4,603 4,762 6,830 9,439 12,019 278

Males 1,466 1,547 1,627 1,707 1,788 1,871 1,962 2,047 2,133 2,224 2,318 3,371 4,533 5,601 282

Females 2,126 2,228 2,328 2,417 2,518 2,610 2,714 2,818 2,919 3,018 3,121 4,455 6,173 7,680 261

Persons 3,592 3,774 3,955 4,124 4,306 4,481 4,676 4,866 5,052 5,242 5,439 7,825 10,706 13,281 270

Males 1,812 1,911 2,017 2,111 2,205 2,309 2,411 2,532 2,642 2,752 2,864 4,208 5,802 7,440 311

Females 2,689 2,807 2,927 3,044 3,156 3,266 3,388 3,507 3,637 3,760 3,888 5,546 7,790 9,986 271

Persons 4,501 4,718 4,944 5,155 5,361 5,575 5,799 6,039 6,279 6,512 6,752 9,754 13,592 17,425 287

Males 8,231 8,677 9,140 9,582 10,019 10,475 10,964 11,474 11,962 12,464 12,966 19,010 26,060 33,047 302

Females 12,422 12,996 13,552 14,093 14,643 15,199 15,768 16,340 16,908 17,477 18,071 25,692 35,863 45,440 266

Persons 20,653 21,673 22,692 23,675 24,663 25,674 26,732 27,815 28,871 29,940 31,037 44,702 61,923 78,487 280

Males 26,057 27,497 28,931 30,336 31,769 33,246 34,819 36,417 37,970 39,576 41,219 60,757 83,462 105,169 304

Females 39,612 41,379 43,082 44,713 46,382 48,146 49,929 51,725 53,468 55,268 57,113 81,031 112,809 141,221 257

Persons 65,669 68,876 72,013 75,050 78,151 81,393 84,748 88,142 91,438 94,844 98,332 141,788 196,271 246,389 275

Non-metropolitan

Subtotal

North and West

Metro

Southern Metro

Barwon-South

Western

Gippsland

Grampian

Hume

Metropolitan

Subtotal

Loddon Mallee

Total (VIC)

East Metro



50

Table 3.40: Incidence projections, by SLAs sorted into Metropolitan Health Regions


Males 75 77 78 80 81 84 87 89 91 94 97 140 193 252 235

Females 161 162 162 162 164 166 167 169 172 173 174 219 292 346 116

Persons 236 239 240 242 245 250 254 259 263 267 271 358 484 598 154

Males 75 79 82 85 89 92 95 98 101 105 109 168 251 326 332

Females 169 173 175 176 180 185 188 190 193 197 201 270 380 470 178

Persons 244 252 257 261 269 276 282 288 293 302 310 438 631 796 226

Males 44 47 49 51 55 58 62 66 69 72 76 126 205 312 616

Females 88 90 90 91 93 96 98 99 101 103 105 143 205 257 192

Persons 132 137 140 142 147 154 160 165 170 175 181 269 409 569 332

Males 54 56 58 59 62 65 67 70 73 76 78 116 177 242 352

Females 93 95 95 97 100 103 107 108 110 113 117 160 220 282 202

Persons 147 151 153 156 162 168 174 178 183 190 195 276 397 525 257

Males 248 259 268 276 287 299 310 323 334 348 360 549 826 1,132 357

Females 511 520 522 526 537 549 560 567 575 587 597 791 1,096 1,356 165

Persons 759 779 790 802 824 848 870 889 909 934 957 1,341 1,922 2,488 228

Males 62 66 70 73 76 79 83 88 91 95 99 153 203 248 299

Females 123 129 133 137 141 144 149 154 160 165 170 255 363 441 258

Persons 185 195 202 210 217 223 232 242 251 260 269 408 566 689 272

Males 68 72 76 80 85 91 96 102 108 114 121 199 314 440 549

Females 107 113 118 123 128 134 139 144 149 157 162 238 359 471 338

Persons 175 185 194 203 213 225 235 246 258 271 282 437 673 911 420

Males 28 30 32 35 38 40 44 48 51 54 58 116 188 255 820

Females 39 42 45 48 52 57 61 66 70 76 81 154 248 349 794

Persons 67 72 78 83 90 97 105 114 121 130 139 270 437 604 805

Males 158 169 178 188 198 210 223 237 250 264 278 468 705 944 498

Females 269 283 296 308 321 334 348 364 379 397 413 647 970 1,260 368

Persons 427 452 474 496 519 545 572 602 629 661 691 1,116 1,676 2,204 416

Males 12 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 36 51 66 442

Females 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 19 20 21 22 42 63 78 557

Persons 24 26 28 29 31 33 35 38 40 42 44 78 114 144 499

Boroondara -

Camberwell N.

Boroondara -

Camberwell S.

Boroondara -

Hawthorn

Boroondara - Kew

Knox - North-East

Knox - North-

West

Knox - South

Manningham -

East

Boroondara

(total)

Knox (total)



51

Table 3.41: Incidence projections, by SLAs sorted into Metropolitan Health Regions, continued


Males 179 196 210 224 237 250 267 283 295 311 326 481 706 904 404

Females 275 290 306 322 341 361 381 401 420 442 462 693 1,057 1,409 412

Persons 454 486 516 546 579 611 648 683 715 753 788 1,175 1,762 2,313 409

Males 191 209 224 238 252 266 284 301 315 331 348 518 757 969 406

Females 287 303 320 337 357 378 398 420 440 463 485 735 1,120 1,487 418

Persons 478 512 544 575 610 643 683 721 755 795 832 1,253 1,877 2,457 414

Males 61 65 68 71 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 164 225 280 361

Females 83 88 91 95 100 101 107 113 117 121 127 194 284 350 323

Persons 144 152 159 166 175 179 188 199 207 216 226 358 509 631 339

Males 74 79 85 89 94 98 104 109 114 120 124 197 294 383 415

Females 144 153 159 166 173 183 192 200 209 217 226 331 496 645 346

Persons 219 232 244 256 267 281 296 310 323 337 351 528 790 1,027 370

Males 135 144 152 160 168 176 186 195 204 214 223 361 519 663 391

Females 227 241 251 262 274 284 299 314 326 339 354 526 780 995 338

Persons 362 385 403 422 442 460 485 509 530 552 577 886 1,299 1,658 357

Males 78 82 86 90 95 99 104 108 111 115 120 168 256 351 350

Females 119 123 127 130 135 142 149 154 157 163 168 227 325 410 243

Persons 197 206 213 220 230 241 253 261 268 278 288 394 581 761 286

Males 93 101 108 115 123 132 142 153 160 172 182 295 474 680 634

Females 154 161 167 173 181 191 200 210 218 229 239 373 591 807 425

Persons 246 262 275 288 304 323 343 362 378 401 421 668 1,065 1,487 504

Males 128 136 143 150 159 167 176 183 189 197 204 268 376 482 275

Females 173 181 190 195 203 213 223 232 239 248 256 345 497 634 266

Persons 301 317 333 345 362 380 398 415 428 445 460 613 873 1,116 270

Males 299 319 338 355 377 399 422 443 460 484 505 731 1,106 1,513 406

Females 446 465 484 497 520 546 572 595 614 640 663 945 1,412 1,850 315

Persons 745 784 821 852 897 945 994 1,038 1,075 1,125 1,169 1,675 2,518 3,364 351

Males 101 106 109 113 117 122 126 130 134 138 144 204 300 399 295

Females 162 167 169 171 173 173 175 178 180 182 185 254 355 425 162

Persons 263 273 278 284 290 295 302 308 314 321 329 458 656 824 213

Monash - South-

West

Manningham -

West

Monash -

Waverley East

Monash -

Waverley West

Whitehorse - Box

Hill

Maroondah -

Croydon

Maroondah -

Ringwood

Manningham

(total)

Maroondah

(total)

Monash (total)



52



Males 69 73 77 80 84 89 95 100 103 108 112 169 259 360 418

Females 111 114 117 121 125 129 134 139 144 149 154 216 317 413 272

Persons 180 188 194 201 209 219 228 238 247 257 266 385 577 773 328

Males 82 85 87 89 91 94 97 99 100 103 105 141 178 213 160

Females 113 115 117 118 119 122 123 126 128 131 132 179 216 242 113

Persons 195 200 203 207 211 216 220 225 228 234 237 320 394 454 133

Males 252 265 273 282 292 305 317 328 337 349 361 514 738 972 285

Females 386 396 403 410 417 424 432 443 451 462 471 648 889 1,080 179

Persons 639 661 676 691 709 729 750 772 788 811 832 1,162 1,627 2,051 221

Males 21 22 24 25 26 28 30 31 33 35 37 59 93 130 534

Females 31 32 34 35 38 40 42 44 45 48 51 80 128 181 486

Persons 51 55 58 60 64 67 71 75 78 83 87 139 220 311 505

Males 25 27 29 31 32 33 35 37 38 40 42 78 128 173 590

Females 34 36 37 39 40 43 46 48 49 51 53 88 137 183 430

Persons 60 62 66 70 72 77 81 84 88 91 95 166 265 356 497

Males 89 96 102 109 116 124 133 143 151 160 170 288 453 655 633

Females 132 141 146 152 159 168 176 184 191 200 210 328 492 648 391

Persons 221 237 248 261 275 292 310 327 343 360 380 615 945 1,303 489

Males 17 18 19 20 22 23 24 26 28 29 30 54 85 112 563

Females 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 37 39 41 44 69 101 136 427

Persons 43 45 47 50 54 57 59 64 67 70 74 123 186 248 481

Males 17 18 20 21 22 26 27 28 29 30 33 64 103 165 893

Females 18 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 27 44 64 84 372

Persons 34 37 39 41 43 48 50 52 53 56 60 107 167 248 624

Males 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 6 595

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 369

Persons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 6 7 521

Males 169 181 194 207 219 234 251 266 280 294 313 545 865 1,241 633

Females 241 255 266 277 290 307 322 337 350 367 385 609 924 1,233 411

Persons 410 436 460 484 509 541 573 603 630 661 698 1,154 1,789 2,473 503

Males 1,453 1,545 1,627 1,706 1,794 1,889 1,994 2,094 2,180 2,284 2,388 3,686 5,516 7,434 412

Females 2,368 2,464 2,540 2,616 2,716 2,822 2,931 3,040 3,135 3,255 3,367 4,901 7,192 9,261 291

Persons 3,821 4,009 4,167 4,322 4,510 4,712 4,925 5,134 5,315 5,539 5,755 8,587 12,708 16,695 337

Yarra Ranges -

North

Whitehorse -

Nunawading E.

Whitehorse -

Nunawading W.

Yarra Ranges -

Central

Yarra Ranges -

Seville

Yarra Ranges - Pt

B

Yarra Ranges -

Dandenongs

Yarra Ranges -

Lilydale

Whitehorse

(total)

Yarra Ranges

(total)

Total (East Metro)



53



Males 132 139 146 151 156 162 169 177 183 192 199 291 443 604 356

Females 215 222 227 231 238 248 256 261 267 274 282 374 530 663 208

Persons 347 361 373 382 395 410 425 438 450 466 480 665 972 1,266 265

Males 80 85 90 96 102 109 116 122 128 135 142 231 360 518 549

Females 125 132 139 144 152 161 169 177 183 191 201 311 480 679 442

Persons 205 217 229 240 254 269 285 299 311 326 343 542 839 1,197 484

Males 212 224 236 246 258 271 285 299 311 327 341 521 802 1,122 429

Females 340 355 366 375 390 409 425 438 450 465 482 685 1,009 1,341 294

Persons 552 579 602 621 649 679 709 737 762 791 823 1,207 1,812 2,463 346

Males 78 84 91 96 104 113 122 132 140 150 160 277 438 612 685

Females 122 128 136 144 152 163 172 181 189 200 213 348 536 746 513

Persons 200 212 227 240 256 276 294 313 330 350 373 625 974 1,358 580

Males 113 121 126 131 139 148 160 168 176 187 198 345 546 811 616

Females 153 162 170 177 184 194 204 213 221 232 243 376 559 763 398

Persons 267 283 296 308 323 342 364 382 397 418 441 721 1,105 1,574 490

Males 191 206 216 227 243 261 282 300 317 337 358 622 984 1,423 644

Females 275 290 307 321 336 357 376 394 410 432 456 723 1,095 1,509 449

Persons 466 496 523 548 579 618 658 695 727 769 813 1,345 2,079 2,932 529

Males 76 79 84 88 90 96 102 105 110 114 120 177 268 391 417

Females 112 115 119 122 126 132 136 141 144 150 156 210 294 387 244

Persons 188 195 202 209 217 228 238 246 254 264 277 387 562 778 314

Males 169 178 187 194 206 218 227 236 245 255 267 372 523 713 322

Females 257 269 281 291 304 318 329 339 351 362 373 481 646 812 216

Persons 426 447 467 486 511 536 556 576 596 617 640 854 1,169 1,525 258

Males 245 258 270 282 297 314 328 342 355 369 387 550 791 1,104 351

Females 369 384 399 413 431 450 466 481 495 512 530 691 940 1,199 224

Persons 614 642 670 695 727 764 794 822 850 881 917 1,241 1,730 2,303 275

Males 81 88 93 98 105 111 118 126 132 140 146 219 335 459 465

Females 123 131 139 146 155 165 174 185 193 203 212 304 440 595 382

Persons 204 218 232 245 261 277 293 311 326 343 358 523 775 1,053 415

Banyule -

Heidelberg

Banyule - North

Brimbank - Keilor

Brimbank -

Sunshine

Banyule (total)

Darebin -

Northcote

Darebin - Preston

Hobsons Bay -

Altona

Brimbank (total)

Darebin (total)



54



Males 48 50 52 52 54 56 59 61 63 66 68 106 166 231 386

Females 73 76 77 79 81 83 86 89 91 93 96 136 195 263 258

Persons 121 125 128 131 134 140 145 150 154 158 164 242 361 494 309

Males 129 138 145 150 159 168 177 187 195 206 214 326 501 690 436

Females 197 206 216 225 236 249 260 274 284 296 307 440 636 857 336

Persons 325 344 360 376 395 416 438 461 480 502 521 766 1,136 1,547 376

Males 66 71 77 82 87 94 102 109 114 122 128 190 281 379 475

Females 89 95 101 107 114 120 127 137 144 150 157 233 327 412 365

Persons 154 166 178 189 201 214 229 246 258 272 285 423 608 790 412

Males 28 32 35 39 43 48 53 60 65 71 78 161 269 388 1,284

Females 39 43 47 51 56 62 68 75 81 88 95 194 322 460 1,094

Persons 67 75 83 89 99 110 121 134 146 159 173 355 591 848 1,174

Males 32 35 37 40 43 46 49 53 56 60 64 112 179 250 675

Females 49 51 54 57 60 65 69 73 77 81 87 149 238 340 601

Persons 81 86 92 97 103 111 118 126 133 141 151 262 417 590 631

Males 126 137 150 160 173 188 204 222 235 253 270 463 729 1,017 706

Females 176 189 203 215 230 247 264 285 302 319 340 576 888 1,212 590

Persons 302 327 353 375 403 435 468 506 537 572 609 1,039 1,617 2,229 639

Males 82 84 86 88 90 91 94 96 98 100 104 154 222 284 247

Females 148 152 154 156 160 166 170 174 176 179 184 243 338 439 196

Persons 230 237 240 244 250 257 264 270 274 280 288 397 560 723 214

Males 82 84 86 88 90 91 94 96 98 100 104 154 222 284 247

Females 148 152 154 156 160 166 170 174 176 179 184 243 338 439 196

Persons 230 237 240 244 250 257 264 270 274 280 288 397 560 723 214

Males 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 28 48 67 881

Females 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 33 56 77 975

Persons 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 24 26 27 29 61 104 143 929

Hume -

Craigieburn

Hume - Sunbury

Maribyrnong

Melbourne -

Inner

Hobsons Bay

(total)

Hume (total)

Maribyrnong

(total)

Hobsons Bay -

Williamstown

Hume -

Broadmeadows



55



Males 8 9 10 11 12 13 16 18 20 23 25 66 120 178 2,235

Females 8 9 10 12 13 15 17 19 21 24 27 68 125 178 2,124

Persons 16 18 20 23 25 29 33 37 41 47 52 134 245 356 2,178

Males 48 51 54 57 60 65 70 74 79 84 89 165 281 409 757

Females 76 80 83 87 91 97 103 109 115 123 130 231 391 550 620

Persons 124 131 137 143 151 162 172 183 194 207 219 397 672 959 672

Males 62 67 72 76 82 88 96 103 111 119 128 259 449 654 952

Females 92 96 102 108 114 123 132 141 150 161 172 332 572 805 779

Persons 154 163 174 184 196 211 228 245 262 281 300 592 1,021 1,459 849

Males 21 23 25 28 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 95 159 229 993

Females 31 35 39 42 46 50 55 59 63 67 72 133 226 316 906

Persons 52 58 64 70 76 83 90 97 104 112 120 228 385 545 941

Males 40 45 50 56 62 68 74 81 87 95 103 223 368 553 1,290

Females 58 66 75 82 91 100 109 118 127 137 147 302 511 710 1,122

Persons 98 111 125 138 152 168 183 199 215 232 251 524 879 1,263 1,190

Males 61 68 76 84 92 100 109 119 128 140 151 318 527 782 1,187

Females 90 102 113 125 136 150 163 177 190 204 219 435 737 1,027 1,046

Persons 150 170 189 208 228 250 273 296 319 344 370 753 1,264 1,809 1,103

Males 95 98 101 104 107 110 113 116 119 123 126 186 266 335 253

Females 173 176 178 180 183 187 189 191 194 199 202 266 366 443 156

Persons 268 274 278 283 290 296 302 307 313 321 328 453 631 778 190

Males 80 88 94 100 105 111 119 125 131 136 141 205 298 380 375

Females 112 121 130 137 145 154 165 176 185 195 202 302 466 631 462

Persons 193 209 224 237 251 265 283 301 316 331 344 507 764 1,011 425

Males 175 186 195 204 212 220 232 241 250 259 268 391 564 716 308

Females 285 298 308 316 328 341 354 367 379 394 404 568 832 1,074 276

Persons 461 483 502 520 540 561 585 608 629 652 672 960 1,396 1,790 289

Males 55 58 60 62 64 65 67 69 71 72 74 96 125 147 168

Females 73 76 78 81 84 84 86 89 91 94 96 128 168 191 161

Persons 128 133 138 142 147 150 153 158 162 166 171 224 293 338 164

Melton - East

Melton Bal

Moonee Valley -

Essendon

Moonee Valley -

West

Melton (total)

Moreland -

Brunswick

Melbourne (total)

Melbourne -

S'bank-D'lands

Melbourne -

Remainder

Moonee Valley

(total)



56



Males 87 90 93 95 97 100 104 105 109 113 115 147 203 258 197

Females 138 141 144 147 151 155 159 160 161 165 168 199 248 290 111

Persons 224 232 236 242 248 256 263 266 271 278 284 346 451 548 144

Males 108 114 118 123 127 130 134 136 139 141 143 173 223 258 139

Females 168 178 186 192 200 209 217 224 228 235 241 281 347 379 125

Persons 276 292 304 315 327 339 351 360 367 377 384 454 569 637 130

Males 249 262 271 279 288 295 305 311 319 327 333 417 551 663 166

Females 379 395 407 420 435 449 462 473 481 494 506 608 763 860 127

Persons 628 657 678 699 722 744 767 784 800 821 839 1,024 1,314 1,523 142

Males 26 27 29 31 34 36 39 42 45 48 51 98 167 244 858

Females 38 40 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 56 58 101 165 227 498

Persons 64 67 70 74 78 83 88 93 97 104 109 199 333 471 642

Males 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 24 25 27 51 81 107 678

Females 22 22 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 37 68 112 154 612

Persons 35 37 39 41 44 47 50 54 57 60 64 119 192 261 638

Males 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 30 55 77 723

Females 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 32 52 69 560

Persons 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 30 30 33 62 106 146 637

Males 49 52 55 59 63 67 72 77 83 87 94 179 303 429 781

Females 70 73 77 80 83 87 92 97 101 107 112 201 329 450 542

Persons 119 125 132 138 146 154 164 174 184 194 206 380 632 879 640

Males 19 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 41 45 49 105 158 205 978

Females 25 27 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 52 56 123 180 223 810

Persons 44 48 53 59 64 70 76 82 89 97 105 229 338 428 883

Males 31 34 37 40 44 47 51 56 60 66 72 125 189 254 712

Females 46 50 54 59 63 69 75 80 85 90 96 170 267 379 715

Persons 78 84 91 98 107 116 126 136 145 156 169 294 457 632 714

Males 73 79 85 90 97 104 112 121 128 136 144 224 332 447 516

Females 91 97 104 110 118 126 134 143 150 160 169 262 392 516 469

Persons 163 176 190 201 215 230 246 264 278 296 312 486 724 963 490

Moreland -

Coburg

Moreland - North

Whittlesea -

South-West

Nillumbik - South

Nillumbik - South-

West

Nillumbik Bal

Moreland (total)

Nillumbik (total)

Whittlesea -

North

Whittlesea -

South-East



57



Males 123 134 146 156 170 183 198 215 229 246 264 454 678 905 637

Females 162 174 188 202 216 233 249 268 283 303 321 554 840 1,118 591

Persons 285 309 334 358 386 416 448 483 512 549 586 1,009 1,518 2,024 611

Males 67 73 79 86 92 100 108 117 125 134 144 274 449 640 853

Females 87 94 101 108 116 123 131 140 149 158 168 313 488 619 612

Persons 154 167 180 194 209 223 240 257 274 292 311 587 937 1,260 717

Males 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 18 20 44 73 100 1,326

Females 10 11 12 14 15 16 18 19 21 23 25 56 90 123 1,107

Persons 17 19 21 23 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 100 163 224 1,197

Males 13 15 16 18 19 21 23 26 28 30 32 70 112 158 1,101

Females 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 34 36 39 42 88 144 185 864

Persons 32 36 39 43 46 50 54 59 64 69 74 158 256 343 960

Males 87 96 104 113 122 132 145 157 169 182 196 388 635 899 928

Females 116 127 136 147 158 168 180 193 206 219 234 457 721 928 697

Persons 204 222 240 260 280 301 324 350 375 401 430 845 1,356 1,826 796

Males 53 57 60 61 64 68 71 73 76 80 83 132 203 281 427

Females 77 80 81 83 86 90 93 96 100 105 109 163 250 332 332

Persons 130 136 141 144 150 157 163 169 176 184 191 295 453 613 371

Males 24 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 35 37 39 54 74 91 280

Females 37 39 41 42 43 45 47 49 50 53 55 82 128 174 365

Persons 61 64 68 70 73 76 80 83 86 90 93 136 202 264 332

Males 77 82 87 90 94 99 104 107 112 116 121 186 277 371 381

Females 114 119 122 125 130 135 139 145 150 158 163 245 378 506 343

Persons 191 201 209 214 223 234 243 252 262 274 284 431 655 877 358

Males 1,868 1,993 2,107 2,215 2,342 2,477 2,632 2,776 2,913 3,068 3,229 5,229 8,013 11,057 492

Females 2,813 2,960 3,097 3,226 3,382 3,564 3,732 3,906 4,058 4,243 4,430 6,759 10,076 13,327 374

Persons 4,681 4,953 5,204 5,441 5,724 6,040 6,364 6,683 6,971 7,311 7,659 11,988 18,089 24,384 421

Total (North and

West Metro)

Wyndham - North

Wyndham - South

Wyndham - West

Whittlesea (total)

Wyndham (total)

Yarra (total)

Yarra - North

Yarra - Richmond



58



Males 84 87 90 93 98 102 108 113 118 124 130 209 324 474 462

Females 150 154 157 160 164 170 174 177 181 186 192 271 397 535 258

Persons 234 241 247 253 262 272 282 290 299 310 322 480 721 1,009 331

Males 101 103 104 107 108 109 111 113 115 118 120 175 246 308 203

Females 197 198 198 200 200 202 204 208 209 210 212 267 355 418 113

Persons 298 302 302 306 308 311 315 320 324 327 333 442 600 726 144

Males 186 191 194 200 206 211 219 225 233 242 250 383 570 782 321

Females 346 352 356 359 364 372 379 385 390 396 404 538 752 953 175

Persons 532 543 550 560 570 583 597 611 623 637 655 922 1,322 1,735 226

Males 24 26 27 28 30 32 33 35 37 40 42 73 118 165 585

Females 33 34 36 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 52 90 146 211 535

Persons 57 60 63 65 69 73 76 81 84 89 94 163 264 376 556

Males 35 39 43 47 52 58 64 72 78 86 94 210 380 568 1,534

Females 55 61 66 73 79 88 96 104 113 122 133 281 482 697 1,163

Persons 90 100 109 120 131 145 160 176 191 208 226 491 862 1,265 1,306

Males 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 25 41 58 489

Females 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 19 20 28 42 55 346

Persons 22 24 25 26 28 29 31 32 34 35 36 54 83 113 410

Males 69 75 80 87 94 103 111 121 131 141 152 308 538 791 1,051

Females 101 108 116 124 134 145 156 167 178 191 204 400 671 964 856

Persons 170 183 196 211 228 248 267 288 309 332 357 708 1,209 1,755 935

Males 69 74 78 83 88 93 99 106 111 118 125 216 327 430 522

Females 111 116 122 128 135 143 152 161 169 179 189 314 495 672 506

Persons 180 189 200 211 223 236 251 266 280 297 313 530 822 1,102 512

Males 58 64 71 77 83 90 98 105 113 121 131 255 410 553 855

Females 89 99 107 115 125 135 146 157 168 180 192 348 572 789 789

Persons 147 163 178 192 208 225 244 262 281 301 323 603 981 1,342 815

Males 50 55 58 62 65 69 74 80 84 89 95 159 256 364 624

Females 65 69 73 77 80 85 89 95 98 102 107 164 245 322 392

Persons 116 124 132 139 144 154 163 175 182 191 202 323 501 685 493

Bayside -

Brighton

Bayside - South

Cardinia - North

Bayside (total)

Cardinia -

Pakenham

Cardinia - South

Casey - Berwick

Cardinia (total)

Casey -

Cranbourne

Casey - Hallam



59



Males 12 13 14 14 16 17 18 20 22 24 26 59 98 141 1,031

Females 14 15 16 17 19 20 22 24 26 28 30 70 118 170 1,150

Persons 26 28 30 32 35 37 41 44 48 52 57 129 216 311 1,093

Males 190 206 221 236 251 269 290 311 330 351 376 688 1,090 1,487 684

Females 279 298 318 337 358 383 409 437 461 490 518 897 1,430 1,953 601

Persons 468 505 539 573 610 652 699 748 791 841 894 1,585 2,521 3,440 635

Males 40 44 48 51 54 58 62 67 71 76 81 143 227 317 693

Females 51 55 59 62 66 71 76 82 86 91 96 165 262 359 602

Persons 91 98 107 113 120 129 139 149 156 167 177 308 489 676 642

Males 136 142 148 155 163 173 182 192 201 211 222 360 549 798 488

Females 224 230 235 242 251 263 273 281 290 301 311 453 655 880 293

Persons 360 372 384 397 414 436 455 473 490 511 533 813 1,204 1,678 366

Males 176 186 196 206 218 231 244 259 272 287 303 503 776 1,115 534

Females 275 285 295 304 317 333 349 363 375 392 407 618 917 1,238 350

Persons 451 471 491 510 535 565 593 622 647 678 710 1,121 1,693 2,354 422

Males 150 153 155 156 160 165 169 172 175 180 185 267 391 517 244

Females 256 259 261 262 263 268 269 271 273 275 278 355 477 568 122

Persons 406 412 416 418 423 433 438 443 448 455 463 622 868 1,085 167

Males 98 103 108 112 115 117 121 125 127 130 133 193 278 352 258

Females 174 181 186 190 196 201 208 213 218 222 226 286 381 448 157

Persons 273 285 294 303 311 318 329 338 345 351 359 479 658 800 194

Males 248 256 263 268 275 282 290 297 302 310 318 460 668 869 250

Females 431 440 447 452 459 469 477 484 490 497 504 641 858 1,016 136

Persons 679 696 710 721 734 751 767 781 792 806 822 1,101 1,526 1,885 178

Males 84 90 95 101 106 112 119 126 131 137 146 248 381 568 575

Females 140 148 155 162 169 180 188 196 204 212 221 328 486 662 374

Persons 224 237 251 263 276 293 307 322 335 349 367 576 867 1,230 449

Males 110 117 124 129 138 146 156 165 173 183 192 305 479 670 507

Females 159 168 176 183 191 202 211 221 230 239 248 369 548 713 348

Persons 270 285 300 312 329 348 367 386 403 422 439 674 1,027 1,383 413

Casey - South

Gr. Dandenong

Bal

Frankston - East

Frankston - West

Glen Eira -

Caulfield

Casey (total)

Frankston (total)

Glen Eira (total)

Glen Eira - South

Gr. Dandenong -

Dandenong



60

Table 3.50: Incidence projections, by SLAs sorted into Metropolitan Health Regions


Males 195 207 219 230 244 258 275 291 304 320 338 553 860 1,238 536

Females 299 316 332 344 360 382 399 417 433 450 469 697 1,034 1,376 360

Persons 494 523 551 575 604 640 674 708 737 770 806 1,250 1,894 2,613 429

Males 156 163 169 174 179 183 191 198 203 210 217 321 465 594 281

Females 171 171 174 175 176 179 181 185 189 193 196 288 358 409 139

Persons 327 334 342 348 355 362 372 383 391 404 413 609 824 1,003 207

Males 70 74 77 80 84 87 92 96 99 104 109 166 239 321 357

Females 114 119 123 127 131 134 137 141 143 147 152 223 318 385 237

Persons 185 192 200 207 215 221 229 237 243 251 261 389 557 706 283

Males 226 236 246 254 263 271 283 293 302 314 326 487 704 916 304

Females 285 290 297 301 307 313 318 326 332 341 348 511 676 794 178

Persons 512 527 542 555 570 583 601 620 634 655 674 998 1,381 1,709 234

Males 45 47 50 53 57 60 64 68 72 76 80 133 198 257 471

Females 59 62 65 69 72 75 78 83 87 91 96 161 242 303 411

Persons 104 109 115 122 129 135 143 151 159 167 176 295 441 561 437

Males 149 157 164 172 180 185 194 200 207 215 222 335 492 633 324

Females 219 229 239 247 259 269 281 293 302 314 325 491 751 999 357

Persons 368 386 403 419 438 455 474 493 509 530 547 826 1,242 1,632 344

Males 119 126 132 138 146 155 165 174 179 189 199 314 489 679 472

Females 177 187 194 201 209 219 229 239 247 258 269 414 621 858 385

Persons 295 313 327 340 355 374 394 413 427 446 468 728 1,110 1,538 420

Males 313 331 347 364 382 401 423 442 458 480 501 782 1,178 1,570 402

Females 455 477 498 518 540 563 588 615 636 663 690 1,066 1,614 2,161 375

Persons 768 808 845 881 922 964 1,011 1,056 1,095 1,143 1,191 1,848 2,793 3,731 386

Males 53 55 57 58 59 60 61 62 64 65 67 102 153 200 274

Females 90 90 90 89 90 92 93 94 95 97 100 139 201 257 185

Persons 144 145 146 147 149 151 154 156 159 163 167 241 354 457 218

Males 47 51 53 56 58 61 65 69 72 75 80 141 218 314 565

Females 70 73 75 78 82 86 89 94 97 103 109 190 306 419 500

Persons 117 123 128 134 139 148 154 162 170 179 189 330 524 733 526

Port Phillip - St

Kilda

Kingston - North

Kingston - South

Mornington

P'sula - East

Port Phillip -

West

Greater

Dandenong

(total)

Kingston (total)

Mornington

Peninsula (total)

Mornington

P'sula - South

Mornington

P'sula - West



61



Males 101 106 109 114 117 121 126 131 136 141 148 243 371 514 410

Females 160 162 165 167 172 178 182 188 192 200 209 328 507 676 323

Persons 261 268 274 281 289 299 309 319 328 341 357 572 878 1,190 357

Males 77 82 85 88 90 95 101 107 110 115 120 192 297 413 433

Females 124 129 133 136 139 145 150 154 157 162 168 250 369 502 304

Persons 202 211 217 223 230 240 251 262 267 277 288 442 667 915 354

Males 77 83 87 91 95 101 108 113 118 124 129 201 312 431 457

Females 141 146 150 154 160 167 173 178 184 191 198 287 427 587 316

Persons 218 229 237 245 255 269 281 291 302 314 327 488 739 1,018 366

Males 155 165 172 178 186 196 209 220 228 239 249 393 609 844 445

Females 265 275 282 290 299 312 323 333 341 353 366 537 796 1,089 310

Persons 420 439 455 468 485 508 532 553 569 591 615 929 1,405 1,933 360

Males 1,858 1,958 2,047 2,137 2,236 2,343 2,470 2,590 2,695 2,825 2,961 4,800 7,365 10,125 445

Females 2,896 3,005 3,105 3,197 3,310 3,450 3,580 3,715 3,831 3,972 4,119 6,234 9,256 12,219 322

Persons 4,754 4,963 5,151 5,335 5,546 5,793 6,050 6,304 6,526 6,797 7,081 11,033 16,621 22,344 370

Stonnington -

Prahran

Stonnington -

Malvern

Port Phillip (total)

Total (Southern

Metro)

Stonnington

(total)



62

Table 3.52: Incidence projections, by SLAs sorted into Non-Metropolitan Health Regions, continued


Males 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 34 36 37 39 56 83 110 348

Females 47 48 49 50 52 54 56 57 59 60 62 84 122 165 251

Persons 71 74 76 79 81 85 88 91 95 97 100 140 205 275 284

Males 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 20 34 50 636

Females 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 25 42 57 519

Persons 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 45 76 107 568

Males 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 14 23 32 480

Females 7 7 8 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 15 20 23 215

Persons 13 13 14 14 14 16 16 17 18 19 19 29 42 55 328

Males 37 39 41 43 44 47 49 52 54 56 58 89 139 192 420

Females 64 65 67 69 71 76 78 80 82 85 88 125 184 245 286

Persons 100 104 108 111 114 122 127 131 136 140 146 214 323 437 335

Males 20 21 23 23 24 26 28 28 29 30 32 43 63 82 304

Females 34 37 38 40 41 43 46 47 48 49 50 70 101 139 309

Persons 54 58 61 64 66 68 73 75 77 79 82 114 163 221 307

Males 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 27 43 60 463

Females 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 45 68 99 477

Persons 28 29 31 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 72 111 159 472

Males 31 33 35 36 38 40 43 44 46 48 49 70 106 142 359

Females 51 55 57 60 62 65 69 71 73 76 78 115 169 238 365

Persons 82 88 92 96 100 105 111 116 119 124 128 186 274 380 363

Males 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 20 28 36 342

Females 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 27 40 54 368

Persons 20 21 22 22 23 25 26 27 29 30 31 48 69 90 357

Males 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 31 49 84 661

Females 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 22 32 44 272

Persons 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 33 34 52 81 127 460

Males 19 20 21 23 23 25 26 28 29 31 33 51 74 97 425

Females 29 30 30 31 32 32 34 35 35 36 37 54 74 87 205

Persons 47 50 52 54 55 57 60 62 65 67 70 105 149 184 291

Colac-Otway -

Colac

Colac-Otway -

North

Colac-Otway -

South

Corangamite -

North

Corangamite -

South

Glenelg -

Heywood

Glenelg - North

Colac-Otway

(totalS)

Corangamite

(total)

Glenelg -

Portland



63



Males 38 40 43 45 46 49 53 56 58 60 64 102 151 217 476

Females 52 54 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 103 147 185 256

Persons 90 94 98 102 105 110 116 120 125 130 135 205 299 402 348

Males 39 41 44 47 49 50 54 56 58 60 63 92 133 169 332

Females 67 71 73 76 80 84 89 93 97 101 105 155 232 304 355

Persons 106 112 117 123 129 135 142 150 155 162 168 248 365 473 346

Males 91 96 101 106 112 117 124 130 137 143 149 238 363 527 480

Females 133 140 146 152 160 169 177 182 189 198 206 297 416 539 304

Persons 224 236 248 259 272 286 300 312 326 342 355 535 779 1,066 375

Males 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 22 24 24 36 53 69 274

Females 36 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 41 42 43 58 81 108 200

Persons 54 54 55 56 57 59 61 62 63 65 67 94 134 177 225

Males 25 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 53 81 124 391

Females 46 46 46 47 47 49 51 51 51 52 53 67 89 111 143

Persons 71 72 73 75 76 79 81 83 84 85 87 120 170 234 231

Males 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 40 61 81 370

Females 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 29 42 62 78 201

Persons 43 45 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 53 54 82 123 159 268

Males 104 112 119 125 133 142 153 162 171 179 188 311 492 725 597

Females 180 190 198 207 218 232 244 256 266 278 292 449 705 1,000 456

Persons 284 302 317 332 351 374 397 418 437 457 480 760 1,197 1,725 508

Males 82 87 92 96 101 106 112 118 123 129 134 218 346 486 491

Females 114 121 127 134 142 151 158 165 172 179 187 304 484 701 512

Persons 197 208 219 230 243 257 270 283 295 308 321 521 830 1,187 503

Males 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 14 24 34 1,100

Females 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 11 18 25 842

Persons 6 5 5 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 25 42 60 975

Males 380 401 422 443 466 490 519 545 572 598 622 1,002 1,552 2,215 483

Females 604 634 657 685 716 754 789 820 849 883 920 1,382 2,088 2,865 374

Persons 984 1,035 1,079 1,128 1,182 1,244 1,308 1,365 1,420 1,481 1,542 2,385 3,640 5,080 416

Bellarine - Inner

Corio - Inner

Geelong

Geelong West

South Barwon -

Inner

Glenelg (total)

Greater Geelong

(total)

Newtown

Greater Geelong -

Pt B

Greater Geelong -

Pt C



64



Males 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 11 17 24 302

Females 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 13 17 19 176

Persons 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 24 34 42 234

Males 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 8 10 212

Females 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 12 157

Persons 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 14 18 22 179

Males 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 31 41 50 267

Females 26 27 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 32 33 51 80 101 287

Persons 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 48 50 51 53 82 120 151 280

Males 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 47 66 84 268

Females 37 39 39 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 72 106 131 251

Persons 60 62 63 65 67 68 70 72 73 76 78 119 172 215 258

Males 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 25 38 51 309

Females 21 21 22 23 24 24 25 25 26 27 27 37 54 68 227

Persons 33 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 62 92 119 257

Males 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 25 38 51 309

Females 21 21 22 23 24 24 25 25 26 27 27 37 54 68 227

Persons 33 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 62 92 119 257

Males 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 29 43 59 73 269

Females 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 43 44 45 62 82 94 164

Persons 55 58 60 62 64 65 68 69 71 73 75 104 141 167 201

Males 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 11 13 134

Females 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 14 17 19 92

Persons 16 16 16 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 23 29 33 108

Males 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 28 45 62 512

Females 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 17 17 18 18 30 45 61 385

Persons 23 23 24 26 27 29 30 31 33 34 35 57 90 122 442

Males 36 37 39 41 43 44 46 48 50 52 53 79 115 149 316

Females 58 60 61 62 64 66 68 70 71 73 75 105 145 174 199

Persons 94 97 100 103 107 110 114 117 120 124 127 184 260 322 243

S. Grampians -

Hamilton

Moyne - North-

East

Moyne - North-

West

Moyne - South

S. Grampians -

Wannon

S. Grampians Bal

Queenscliffe

(total)

Queenscliffe

Moyne (total)

Southern

Grampians (total)



65



Males 17 18 20 21 23 24 26 28 31 33 35 64 105 150 778

Females 25 26 28 29 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 78 125 166 559

Persons 42 44 47 50 53 57 60 64 69 74 78 142 230 316 648

Males 19 20 22 22 23 25 26 27 27 28 30 44 63 83 332

Females 28 29 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 55 80 102 261

Persons 48 50 53 54 55 58 60 62 64 66 68 99 144 185 290

Males 36 39 41 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 65 108 169 234 542

Females 53 55 58 60 62 65 68 71 75 78 82 133 205 268 402

Persons 90 94 100 104 108 114 119 126 133 139 147 241 374 501 458

Males 37 38 39 41 42 44 46 48 49 52 54 87 116 144 292

Females 84 88 90 93 96 98 101 106 110 114 120 179 273 364 332

Persons 121 126 130 134 138 142 147 154 159 166 174 265 389 508 320

Males 37 38 39 41 42 44 46 48 49 52 54 87 116 144 292

Females 84 88 90 93 96 98 101 106 110 114 120 179 273 364 332

Persons 121 126 130 134 138 142 147 154 159 166 174 265 389 508 320

Males 630 664 698 730 764 802 848 890 930 971 1,012 1,610 2,452 3,428 444

Females 1,025 1,071 1,108 1,149 1,195 1,252 1,303 1,353 1,398 1,452 1,510 2,252 3,370 4,538 343

Persons 1,655 1,735 1,806 1,880 1,960 2,055 2,152 2,242 2,329 2,423 2,521 3,862 5,822 7,965 381

Surf Coast - East

Surf Coast - West

Warrnambool

Total (Barwon-

South Western)

Surf Coast (total)

Warrnambool

(total)



66



Males 20 22 23 24 25 26 28 30 31 32 33 57 92 132 559

Females 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 42 43 45 48 75 113 151 389

Persons 51 53 56 59 62 64 67 71 74 77 81 132 206 283 456

Males 48 50 52 56 58 62 64 68 70 74 76 114 180 256 436

Females 69 73 77 79 85 90 94 98 102 106 110 168 253 353 414

Persons 116 123 129 135 143 152 158 166 172 179 186 281 432 609 423

Males 68 71 76 80 83 88 92 98 101 105 109 170 272 388 473

Females 99 105 110 114 121 128 133 140 145 151 158 243 366 504 406

Persons 167 176 186 194 205 216 225 238 246 256 267 413 638 892 433

Males 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 26 36 48 525

Females 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 19 20 21 21 33 50 64 350

Persons 22 24 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 36 38 60 85 112 411

Males 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 13 20 27 426

Females 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 16 23 32 436

Persons 11 11 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 29 43 59 432

Males 54 59 62 66 71 76 81 85 89 95 101 173 277 410 663

Females 80 85 89 95 100 106 112 117 123 129 137 222 358 516 548

Persons 133 144 152 160 171 182 193 202 212 224 239 395 635 926 594

Males 67 72 76 81 87 93 99 105 109 117 125 212 333 485 629

Females 100 106 113 118 125 132 140 145 152 160 168 271 431 613 513

Persons 166 179 189 199 211 225 238 250 261 277 294 483 764 1,097 559

Males 69 74 80 83 86 91 97 103 107 112 119 182 280 385 456

Females 103 109 115 120 126 134 140 147 154 160 169 263 401 564 446

Persons 173 183 194 203 213 225 238 250 261 273 287 445 681 950 450

Males 16 17 18 19 19 20 22 23 24 25 26 42 64 87 450

Females 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 29 30 48 71 95 430

Persons 34 35 38 39 41 43 46 49 51 54 56 90 135 182 439

Males 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 12 30 62 114 2,026

Females 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 21 35 48 885

Persons 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 17 18 20 22 51 96 162 1,486

Bass Coast -

Phillip Is.

Bass Coast Bal

E. Gippsland -

Bairnsdale

E. Gippsland -

Orbost

E. Gippsland -

South-West

Bass Coast (total)

Baw Baw (total)

Baw Baw - Pt A

Baw Baw - Pt B

East

Baw Baw - Pt B

West



67



Males 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 15 25 38 818

Females 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 13 18 22 304

Persons 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 28 42 60 527

Males 95 101 109 113 118 123 132 140 147 156 164 270 431 625 560

Females 132 138 145 152 160 170 178 187 195 205 217 345 525 728 454

Persons 226 239 254 265 278 293 310 327 342 361 380 614 955 1,353 498

Males 39 41 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 59 62 90 135 181 358

Females 60 63 66 70 73 77 80 83 86 89 92 128 181 239 295

Persons 100 105 110 116 121 127 132 137 142 148 154 218 315 419 320

Males 34 36 38 41 43 44 47 49 51 54 56 87 130 168 392

Females 48 51 52 54 57 59 62 64 66 69 71 107 156 211 344

Persons 82 87 90 95 100 103 109 114 117 122 127 194 286 379 364

Males 26 28 29 31 32 34 35 37 39 41 43 73 102 130 396

Females 52 54 56 59 61 62 64 68 71 74 77 127 191 239 357

Persons 78 82 86 90 93 96 100 105 109 114 120 200 293 368 370

Males 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 16 36 76 3,425

Females 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 6 8 9 483

Persons 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 22 44 85 2,192

Males 102 107 113 121 126 133 139 145 151 158 166 267 403 554 444

Females 162 170 177 185 193 200 209 218 225 234 243 367 535 698 331

Persons 264 277 290 306 319 333 347 363 376 392 409 634 938 1,252 375

Males 25 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 38 40 41 63 98 136 435

Females 34 36 38 39 41 42 44 45 47 49 51 76 112 143 316

Persons 60 63 66 68 72 76 79 82 85 89 92 139 210 279 367

Males 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 21 30 43 57 347

Females 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 36 55 74 350

Persons 29 31 32 33 35 37 38 40 41 43 45 66 98 131 349

Males 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 21 36 57 77 462

Females 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 27 44 65 82 313

Persons 33 35 36 37 39 40 41 43 44 45 47 80 123 159 374

Latrobe - Moe

Latrobe - Morwell

Latrobe -

Traralgon

Latrobe Bal

South Gippsland -

Central

Latrobe (total)

South Gippsland -

East

South Gippsland -

West

East Gippsland

(total)

E. Gippsland Bal



68



Males 52 55 57 59 62 67 69 72 76 79 83 129 198 271 421

Females 71 74 78 80 83 86 88 92 95 98 102 156 232 299 323

Persons 123 129 135 139 145 152 157 164 170 177 185 285 430 569 365

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16

Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Falls Creek Alpine

Resort

South Gippsland

(total)

Lake Mountain

Alpine Resort

Mount Baw Baw

Alpine Resort

Mount Buller

Alpine Resort

Mount Hotham

Alpine Resort

Mount Stirling

Alpine Resort

Lady Julia Percy

Island

French Island

Bass Strait Islands



69



Males 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15

Females 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

Persons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12

Males 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 18 19 31 49 67 449

Females 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 36 53 71 359

Persons 28 29 30 31 33 35 36 38 39 41 43 67 102 138 399

Males 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 16 24 32 486

Females 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 16 23 28 385

Persons 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 17 31 47 60 435

Males 19 22 22 23 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 61 104 154 699

Females 33 35 36 37 39 41 43 44 46 48 50 79 119 161 391

Persons 52 56 59 60 63 67 71 73 76 81 85 140 223 315 504

Males 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 18 30 44 59 460

Females 11 12 13 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 31 46 58 426

Persons 22 23 25 26 28 31 32 34 35 37 39 60 90 118 443

Males 23 24 26 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 53 79 102 354

Females 36 38 39 40 42 43 44 46 47 49 50 70 98 116 221

Persons 59 62 65 67 70 72 75 77 80 82 85 124 176 218 272

Males 70 76 79 83 88 92 97 101 105 111 116 191 300 415 492

Females 101 107 111 114 120 126 131 136 141 147 152 232 338 434 329

Persons 171 183 190 197 207 218 228 237 246 258 269 423 638 849 396

Males 453 483 511 537 564 596 628 662 689 727 763 1,239 1,938 2,738 504

Females 665 700 733 763 801 842 879 918 953 995 1,041 1,615 2,427 3,275 393

Persons 1,118 1,183 1,244 1,300 1,366 1,438 1,507 1,580 1,642 1,722 1,804 2,853 4,365 6,013 438

Wellington -

Alberton

Unincorporated

Vic (total)

Wellington -

Avon

Wellington -

Maffra

Wellington -

Rosedale

Wellington - Sale

Total (Gippsland)

Wellington (total)



70


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 23 24 26 27 30 32 34 36 37 39 41 68 112 177 659

Females 38 39 40 41 43 45 47 48 49 51 53 75 110 151 303

Persons 61 63 66 69 73 78 80 84 86 90 93 143 222 329 439

Males 23 24 26 27 30 32 34 36 37 39 41 68 112 177 659

Females 38 39 40 41 43 45 47 48 49 51 53 75 110 151 303

Persons 61 63 66 69 73 78 80 84 86 90 93 143 222 329 439

Males 59 62 64 66 68 71 74 76 79 81 85 131 210 310 425

Females 123 125 126 127 131 136 137 138 140 143 145 189 252 313 155

Persons 182 187 190 194 199 207 211 214 219 225 230 320 462 623 243

Males 46 50 53 57 62 67 72 78 82 88 94 170 284 438 858

Females 70 75 79 84 90 95 100 107 111 117 123 204 316 443 530

Persons 116 125 132 141 151 162 173 185 193 205 217 374 600 881 659

Males 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 181

Females 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 142

Persons 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 6 163

Males 34 37 40 43 45 48 51 55 59 63 66 114 176 240 606

Females 58 62 67 70 74 79 84 89 93 97 102 167 263 371 539

Persons 92 99 107 113 119 127 135 144 152 160 169 281 439 611 564

Males 140 150 158 167 177 188 199 211 221 233 246 417 672 992 608

Females 252 263 273 282 296 311 322 335 345 359 372 562 834 1,130 348

Persons 392 413 432 450 473 498 521 546 566 592 619 979 1,506 2,121 441

Males 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 24 37 51 626

Females 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 18 26 33 481

Persons 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 42 63 85 561

Males 9 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 36 60 89 924

Females 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 15 16 17 17 39 68 95 911

Persons 18 19 21 22 23 24 26 28 30 31 33 75 129 183 917

Males 16 16 18 19 20 20 22 22 23 25 26 60 98 140 790

Females 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 25 26 28 57 94 128 748

Persons 31 32 35 37 39 40 43 45 49 51 54 117 192 268 769

Ararat

Golden Plains -

South-East

Ballarat - Central

Ballarat - Inner

North

Ballarat - North

Ararat (total)

Ballarat (total)

Golden Plains

(total)

Ballarat - South

Golden Plains -

North-West



71


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 19 20 21 21 32 47 63 378

Females 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 40 59 80 283

Persons 34 35 37 37 39 41 43 45 46 48 49 72 106 143 319

Males 15 15 16 17 18 18 20 20 21 23 24 38 59 81 444

Females 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 45 69 97 395

Persons 34 35 37 39 41 42 44 46 48 51 53 83 127 177 416

Males 28 29 31 32 34 35 37 39 41 43 45 70 106 143 413

Females 40 41 43 44 46 48 50 52 53 55 57 85 128 177 337

Persons 68 70 74 76 80 83 87 91 94 98 102 155 233 320 368

Males 19 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 29 39 54 69 258

Females 32 33 34 35 36 38 39 40 41 42 43 53 71 91 182

Persons 52 53 54 56 58 61 64 65 68 70 72 91 125 160 210

Males 19 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 29 39 54 69 258

Females 32 33 34 35 36 38 39 40 41 42 43 53 71 91 182

Persons 52 53 54 56 58 61 64 65 68 70 72 91 125 160 210

Males 28 31 33 34 36 38 40 41 43 46 48 70 102 134 377

Females 52 55 58 60 64 67 70 73 75 78 80 111 156 202 288

Persons 80 86 91 94 99 104 110 114 118 124 128 181 258 336 319

Males 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 18 28 37 423

Females 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 23 36 48 529

Persons 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 23 23 25 25 41 65 86 478

Males 35 38 41 42 44 47 50 52 54 57 59 88 130 172 386

Females 60 64 67 70 74 77 82 85 87 91 94 134 193 250 319

Persons 95 102 108 112 118 124 132 137 141 148 153 222 323 422 344

Males 18 20 21 22 24 25 27 30 31 34 35 64 103 142 677

Females 34 36 37 40 42 44 46 50 52 55 60 103 164 242 613

Persons 52 55 58 63 66 70 74 80 84 89 95 168 267 384 635

Males 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 25 42 59 620

Females 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 30 51 71 544

Persons 19 20 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 32 56 93 131 576

Moorabool -

Bacchus Marsh

Hepburn - East

Hepburn - West

Hindmarsh

Moorabool -

Ballan

Hepburn (total)

Hindmarsh (total)

Horsham (total)

Horsham - Central

Horsham Bal



72


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 13 20 27 398

Females 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 11 12 13 22 33 50 772

Persons 11 12 13 14 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 35 53 77 592

Males 32 34 37 38 41 43 46 49 51 55 57 102 165 228 615

Females 51 53 57 61 64 68 72 77 80 85 90 156 248 364 616

Persons 83 87 93 99 105 111 117 126 132 139 147 258 413 592 616

Males 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 16 28 43 440

Females 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 25 40 61 450

Persons 19 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 24 24 26 40 68 104 446

Males 17 19 20 21 22 22 23 25 26 27 27 37 53 68 291

Females 28 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 47 63 76 167

Persons 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 61 64 65 84 115 144 214

Males 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 35 37 38 53 81 111 337

Females 39 41 42 43 45 46 48 49 50 52 53 71 102 137 246

Persons 65 68 70 72 75 77 80 83 86 88 91 124 183 248 282

Males 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 19 22 25 220

Females 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 21 31 41 319

Persons 18 18 19 20 20 22 23 25 26 27 28 39 53 66 275

Males 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 16 23 30 293

Females 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 20 28 34 269

Persons 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 24 25 36 51 64 280

Males 16 16 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 35 45 55 256

Females 19 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 27 28 41 59 75 294

Persons 34 35 37 39 40 43 45 48 49 51 53 75 104 130 277

Males 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 17 23 28 252

Females 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 26 37 46 206

Persons 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 32 43 59 74 222

Males 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 17 23 28 252

Females 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 26 37 46 206

Persons 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 32 43 59 74 222

Moorabool - West

N. Grampians - St

Arnaud

Moorabool (total)

N. Grampians -

Stawell

Pyrenees - South

Pyrenees - North

Northern

Grampians (total)

West Wimmera

Pyrenees (total)

West Wimmera

(total)



73


Grampian 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 119

Females 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 11 14 16 171

Persons 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 17 21 25 151

Males 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 21 21 21 26 33 40 157

Females 24 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 31 31 32 40 58 81 240

Persons 39 42 43 44 45 47 49 49 51 52 53 66 91 121 207

Males 19 20 21 22 22 22 24 24 25 26 26 32 41 48 150

Females 30 32 33 33 35 36 36 37 38 39 40 51 72 97 226

Persons 49 52 53 55 57 58 61 61 64 65 66 83 113 145 196

Males 362 384 406 425 447 471 498 526 549 579 606 981 1,525 2,163 498

Females 592 617 641 665 696 730 760 789 814 846 876 1,310 1,948 2,645 347

Persons 953 1,001 1,047 1,090 1,143 1,201 1,258 1,315 1,363 1,425 1,483 2,290 3,473 4,809 404

Yarriambiack -

North

Yarriambiack -

South

Yarriambiack

(total)

Total (Grampian)



74


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 16 17 18 19 20 20 21 22 23 23 24 34 49 63 292

Females 21 23 23 24 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 43 60 72 236

Persons 38 40 41 43 45 46 48 50 51 52 54 77 110 135 260

Males 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 22 31 39 317

Females 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 21 21 22 31 44 57 261

Persons 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 36 37 53 75 96 281

Males 25 27 28 29 31 32 33 35 36 38 39 56 80 102 301

Females 37 39 40 41 44 44 46 48 49 50 51 74 104 129 247

Persons 63 66 68 70 74 77 79 83 85 88 90 130 185 231 269

Males 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 48 67 84 249

Females 47 49 52 53 55 58 59 62 63 65 68 86 112 138 192

Persons 71 74 78 81 84 87 90 94 96 99 102 135 180 221 211

Males 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 14 22 31 422

Females 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 12 19 25 482

Persons 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 27 41 56 447

Males 30 31 33 34 35 36 38 40 41 42 43 63 90 115 284

Females 51 53 56 58 60 63 65 68 70 71 75 98 131 163 216

Persons 81 85 89 92 96 100 103 107 111 114 118 161 221 278 241

Males 72 77 81 85 90 95 101 107 113 120 126 195 301 413 473

Females 118 125 132 137 145 151 160 166 173 180 188 279 418 575 387

Persons 190 202 214 222 235 246 261 274 286 301 314 474 718 987 420

Males 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 15 19 24 326

Females 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 17 25 35 457

Persons 12 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 32 44 58 395

Males 16 18 20 21 22 24 27 28 29 30 34 55 80 115 606

Females 22 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 49 74 99 346

Persons 38 41 44 46 49 51 56 58 60 63 68 104 154 214 457

Males 94 100 107 112 119 125 135 143 150 158 168 266 400 552 488

Females 146 155 164 170 179 187 198 206 213 223 232 345 516 708 384

Persons 240 255 271 282 298 313 332 349 364 381 400 610 916 1,260 424

Alpine - West

Benalla - Benalla

Benalla Bal

Gr. Shepparton -

Pt A

Alpine (total)

Benalla (total)

Greater

Shepparton

(total)

Gr. Shepparton -

Pt B East

Gr. Shepparton -

Pt B West

Alpine - East



75


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 33 44 54 339

Females 24 25 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 31 33 50 71 85 262

Persons 36 38 39 41 43 44 46 47 49 51 54 84 115 139 289

Males 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 13 18 22 323

Females 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 22 32 41 330

Persons 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 34 50 63 327

Males 18 18 19 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 29 46 62 76 334

Females 33 35 36 36 37 38 40 41 42 44 45 72 103 126 282

Persons 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 68 71 74 118 165 203 300

Males 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 23 24 42 70 102 664

Females 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 27 29 30 52 85 121 536

Persons 32 35 36 37 39 41 43 46 48 51 54 95 155 223 589

Males 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 23 24 42 70 102 664

Females 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 27 29 30 52 85 121 536

Persons 32 35 36 37 39 41 43 46 48 51 54 95 155 223 589

Males 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 23 23 33 48 63 321

Females 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 28 41 60 74 266

Persons 35 37 39 41 42 44 46 47 48 50 51 73 107 137 290

Males 19 21 23 24 26 29 31 34 36 40 43 88 143 201 944

Females 27 29 32 34 36 39 42 46 49 51 55 109 186 261 873

Persons 46 50 55 58 62 68 73 80 85 91 97 196 330 463 903

Males 34 37 40 42 44 48 51 55 58 62 66 120 191 265 671

Females 47 50 55 57 61 64 68 72 75 79 83 149 246 335 613

Persons 81 88 94 99 105 112 119 127 134 141 149 269 437 600 638

Males 26 28 29 32 34 35 38 40 42 43 45 70 111 155 502

Females 33 35 36 39 41 44 46 48 51 54 56 86 131 183 458

Persons 59 62 66 70 75 79 84 88 93 97 101 156 241 338 477

Males 40 42 45 46 48 51 53 56 58 61 64 96 146 199 403

Females 53 54 56 58 60 63 66 69 73 76 79 116 168 214 305

Persons 93 97 100 104 108 113 120 125 131 137 143 212 314 413 347

Indigo - Pt A

Indigo - Pt B

Mansfield

Mitchell - North

Indigo (total)

Mansfield (total)

Mitchell - South

Moira - East

Moira - West

Mitchell (total)



76


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 65 70 74 78 82 86 91 95 99 104 108 166 257 355 442

Females 86 89 92 97 101 107 113 118 124 130 135 202 299 397 363

Persons 151 159 166 175 183 192 203 213 224 234 244 368 555 752 397

Males 16 18 19 20 21 23 25 26 27 28 30 46 72 101 515

Females 21 23 24 25 26 29 30 32 34 35 37 55 86 118 455

Persons 38 41 43 45 48 52 55 58 61 64 67 101 158 218 481

Males 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 25 42 61 640

Females 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 30 45 58 390

Persons 20 21 22 22 22 24 25 26 27 28 30 56 88 120 493

Males 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 37 39 41 43 72 114 162 557

Females 33 35 36 38 39 42 44 47 49 51 53 85 131 176 432

Persons 58 61 64 68 70 75 80 84 88 92 96 157 246 338 486

Males 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 46 68 87 296

Females 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 61 88 108 244

Persons 53 55 57 59 61 62 64 66 68 70 72 107 155 195 265

Males 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 46 68 87 296

Females 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 61 88 108 244

Persons 53 55 57 59 61 62 64 66 68 70 72 107 155 195 265

Males 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 14 16 196

Females 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 16 21 28 231

Persons 14 14 14 14 15 15 17 17 18 18 19 26 35 44 217

Males 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 18 22 27 166

Females 13 14 14 15 16 16 18 18 19 20 20 28 40 54 307

Persons 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 34 46 62 81 246

Males 16 16 17 18 18 18 20 20 21 21 22 28 36 43 176

Females 22 22 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 44 61 82 278

Persons 37 38 39 40 42 44 47 49 50 51 53 72 97 125 236

Males 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 44 58 72 204

Females 51 54 54 55 57 59 61 63 64 66 68 88 115 142 179

Persons 75 78 79 80 83 85 88 90 92 95 98 132 174 214 187

Wangaratta -

Central

Murrindindi - East

Murrindindi -

West

Strathbogie

Towong - Pt A

Towong - Pt B

Moira (total)

Murrindindi

(total)

Strathbogie

(total)

Towong (total)



77


Hume 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 28 40 50 444

Females 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 19 20 32 44 53 285

Persons 23 24 25 25 26 28 29 31 32 34 36 61 84 103 349

Males 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 19 28 36 370

Females 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 22 34 46 449

Persons 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 41 62 82 411

Males 41 42 43 45 46 48 50 52 54 56 59 92 126 158 290

Females 73 76 78 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 101 142 194 240 230

Persons 113 119 121 124 129 135 140 144 148 154 160 234 320 399 251

Males 30 32 34 35 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 83 116 145 381

Females 43 44 46 48 49 51 53 55 57 60 62 102 139 166 286

Persons 73 76 80 83 86 90 93 97 101 106 110 186 254 312 325

Males 30 32 34 35 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 83 116 145 381

Females 43 44 46 48 49 51 53 55 57 60 62 102 139 166 286

Persons 73 76 80 83 86 90 93 97 101 106 110 186 254 312 325

Males 413 438 461 483 507 534 565 593 618 649 681 1,081 1,608 2,161 424

Females 622 652 680 704 737 768 802 838 869 904 940 1,426 2,098 2,752 342

Persons 1,035 1,089 1,141 1,187 1,244 1,301 1,367 1,431 1,487 1,553 1,621 2,507 3,707 4,913 375

Wangaratta -

North

Wangaratta -

South

Wodonga

Total (Hume)

Wangaratta

(total)

Wodonga (total)



78



Males 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 22 27 35 305

Females 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 24 34 43 218

Persons 22 24 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 45 61 79 252

Males 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 20 29 38 298

Females 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 19 19 19 20 31 51 76 390

Persons 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 31 31 32 34 51 80 115 354

Males 18 19 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 41 56 74 301

Females 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 37 38 55 84 120 309

Persons 48 49 51 52 54 57 58 61 62 64 67 96 140 193 306

Males 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 36 38 41 43 70 105 146 476

Females 41 42 44 44 46 49 51 54 56 59 61 98 154 220 442

Persons 66 69 71 73 77 81 84 90 94 100 104 168 259 366 455

Males 29 31 34 36 38 41 42 44 47 49 51 81 127 176 501

Females 40 42 43 46 48 51 53 55 58 60 62 90 134 183 357

Persons 69 73 78 81 86 91 96 99 105 109 113 171 261 360 418

Males 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 17 27 41 54 355

Females 18 18 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 22 23 35 54 72 301

Persons 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 40 61 95 126 323

Males 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 20 33 47 485

Females 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 22 35 49 404

Persons 18 19 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 43 68 96 441

Males 75 79 84 87 92 97 101 107 113 120 124 198 305 423 468

Females 108 112 116 119 124 131 137 143 149 154 161 245 377 524 384

Persons 183 191 201 207 216 228 238 250 261 274 285 443 683 948 418

Males 21 22 23 24 24 25 26 28 28 29 30 40 55 70 227

Females 33 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 44 45 46 67 100 138 312

Persons 55 57 59 61 62 64 67 70 72 74 76 107 155 207 279

Males 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 22 29 35 228

Females 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 30 46 67 430

Persons 23 25 26 28 29 31 33 34 35 37 38 53 75 102 338

Buloke - North

Buloke - South

Campaspe -

Echuca

Campaspe -

Kyabram

Campaspe -

Rochester

Campaspe - South

C. Goldfields -

M'borough

C. Goldfields Bal

Buloke (total)

Campaspe (total)



79



Males 32 34 35 37 38 39 41 44 45 46 47 62 84 104 227

Females 46 48 50 52 54 57 58 61 62 65 67 97 146 205 345

Persons 78 82 85 89 91 96 100 104 107 111 114 160 230 310 297

Males 27 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 40 42 44 69 106 164 509

Females 39 40 42 44 46 47 48 49 51 53 54 77 114 157 306

Persons 66 69 72 74 79 82 86 88 91 95 98 146 220 321 389

Males 27 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 40 42 44 69 106 164 509

Females 39 40 42 44 46 47 48 49 51 53 54 77 114 157 306

Persons 66 69 72 74 79 82 86 88 91 95 98 146 220 321 389

Males 31 33 34 34 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 67 93 121 284

Females 53 54 54 56 57 58 60 62 63 64 66 90 128 168 217

Persons 84 86 88 90 93 96 99 102 105 108 112 157 220 289 242

Males 12 12 13 13 13 15 16 17 17 18 19 32 49 65 451

Females 29 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 59 84 108 267

Persons 41 42 43 44 45 48 49 52 54 57 58 91 133 173 319

Males 59 62 67 71 75 80 83 90 94 99 104 177 302 493 734

Females 99 103 108 114 119 125 131 135 140 145 151 214 318 438 344

Persons 158 166 175 184 194 204 214 224 234 244 254 391 619 931 490

Males 14 15 17 18 20 23 24 26 28 31 34 64 102 157 988

Females 20 23 24 26 29 31 33 34 38 40 44 78 123 179 775

Persons 35 38 41 44 49 54 57 60 65 71 77 143 226 335 863

Males 22 24 25 26 28 31 33 35 38 40 43 77 132 196 794

Females 35 37 39 41 43 45 48 50 52 54 57 97 156 218 531

Persons 57 61 65 68 71 76 80 85 90 94 100 174 288 415 633

Males 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 11 24 43 66 1,204

Females 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 20 30 39 713

Persons 10 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 17 18 21 44 73 105 965

Males 20 22 23 24 26 27 29 30 31 32 36 64 106 163 695

Females 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 31 32 35 37 65 97 138 556

Persons 41 43 46 48 52 55 58 61 63 67 73 129 204 301 625

Gr. Bendigo -

Inner West

Gannawarra

Gr. Bendigo -

Central

Gr. Bendigo -

Eaglehawk

Gr. Bendigo -

S'saye

Gr. Bendigo - Pt B

Gr. Bendigo -

Inner East

Gr. Bendigo -

Inner North

Central

Goldfields (total)

Gannawarra

(total)



80



Males 164 173 185 193 205 219 231 246 259 273 292 505 827 1,260 668

Females 262 274 285 296 312 327 342 354 370 386 404 623 936 1,287 392

Persons 426 447 469 489 517 546 572 600 629 658 696 1,128 1,763 2,547 498

Males 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 10 12 14 130

Females 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 11 13 15 105

Persons 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 20 25 28 117

Males 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 20 25 29 138

Females 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 23 34 45 296

Persons 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 43 59 73 214

Males 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 29 37 42 136

Females 18 19 20 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 34 47 59 222

Persons 36 37 38 40 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 63 84 102 179

Males 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 22 36 51 65 380

Females 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 55 81 105 333

Persons 38 39 41 43 45 47 48 51 53 56 58 90 132 170 350

Males 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 20 37 58 80 716

Females 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 37 60 81 561

Persons 22 24 25 26 27 29 31 34 35 38 40 74 118 161 630

Males 25 27 30 32 34 36 39 42 45 48 50 88 145 207 736

Females 38 40 43 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 110 177 256 580

Persons 62 68 73 78 82 88 93 99 104 111 116 199 322 463 642

Males 48 52 57 61 64 68 73 78 83 89 92 161 254 352 632

Females 74 78 82 86 90 95 100 105 110 116 121 203 319 442 496

Persons 122 130 139 147 154 164 173 184 193 204 214 364 573 794 549

Males 76 83 88 94 99 105 111 119 124 130 135 209 326 451 497

Females 126 133 139 147 153 161 169 175 184 193 201 300 462 642 412

Persons 201 215 227 240 252 266 281 294 307 322 335 509 788 1,094 444

Males 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 14 22 30 321

Females 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 13 16 17 131

Persons 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 27 38 47 223

Macedon Ranges -

Kyneton

Macedon Ranges -

Romsey

Loddon - North

Macedon Ranges

Bal

Mildura - Pt A

Mildura - Pt B

Macedon Ranges

(total)

Loddon (total)

Loddon - South

Greater Bendigo

(total)



81



Males 83 90 96 101 107 113 120 127 132 139 144 223 348 481 482

Females 133 140 147 155 162 169 178 184 193 202 210 312 477 660 396

Persons 216 230 243 256 269 282 297 311 325 340 354 536 826 1,141 429

Males 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 27 39 55 68 258

Females 37 38 39 40 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 65 99 131 258

Persons 56 57 60 61 62 64 66 67 70 72 73 104 153 199 258

Males 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 41 64 88 453

Females 21 22 23 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 49 71 93 342

Persons 37 38 40 41 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 90 135 182 390

Males 35 36 38 39 40 42 44 45 47 48 50 80 119 156 347

Females 58 59 62 63 64 66 68 70 73 75 77 114 169 224 289

Persons 93 95 99 102 105 107 112 115 119 123 127 193 288 381 311

Males 15 16 17 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 34 47 60 292

Females 22 22 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 42 53 60 177

Persons 37 39 40 41 42 43 44 46 47 48 49 75 100 121 224

Males 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 9 11 212

Females 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 14 17 193

Persons 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 17 23 28 200

Males 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 27 37 47 278

Females 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 27 43 58 344

Persons 26 27 28 29 29 31 32 34 35 37 39 54 79 105 312

Males 31 33 34 36 37 38 39 41 42 44 45 67 93 118 277

Females 41 42 42 44 44 46 47 49 50 52 53 79 109 135 233

Persons 72 75 77 79 81 84 86 90 92 96 99 146 202 253 252

Males 531 563 598 624 655 693 729 773 807 848 889 1,435 2,228 3,176 498

Females 808 843 877 911 950 993 1,035 1,074 1,116 1,162 1,209 1,839 2,780 3,814 372

Persons 1,339 1,407 1,475 1,535 1,605 1,687 1,764 1,847 1,923 2,010 2,098 3,275 5,009 6,990 422

Mount Alexander -

C'maine

Mount Alexander

Bal

Swan Hill -

Central

Swan Hill -

Robinvale

Swan Hill Bal

Total (Loddon

Mallee)

Mildura (total)

Mount Alexander

(total)

Swan Hill (total)



82

Table 3.72: Incidence projections, LGAs by Health Regions

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Eastern Metropolitan Region

Boroondara 759 779 790 802 824 848 870 889 909 934 957 1,341 1,922 2,488 228

Knox 427 452 474 496 519 545 572 602 629 661 691 1,116 1,676 2,204 416

Manningham 478 512 544 575 610 643 683 721 755 795 832 1,253 1,877 2,457 414

Maroondah 362 385 403 422 442 460 485 509 530 552 577 886 1,299 1,658 357

Monash 745 784 821 852 897 945 994 1,038 1,075 1,125 1,169 1,675 2,518 3,364 351

Whitehorse 639 661 676 691 709 729 750 772 788 811 832 1,162 1,627 2,051 221

Yarra Ranges 410 436 460 484 509 541 573 603 630 661 698 1,154 1,789 2,473 503

Total 3,821 4,009 4,167 4,322 4,510 4,712 4,925 5,134 5,315 5,539 5,755 8,587 12,708 16,695 337

North and West Metropolitan Region

Banyule 552 579 602 621 649 679 709 737 762 791 823 1,207 1,812 2,463 346

Brimbank 466 496 523 548 579 618 658 695 727 769 813 1,345 2,079 2,932 529

Darebin 614 642 670 695 727 764 794 822 850 881 917 1,241 1,730 2,303 275

Hobsons Bay 325 344 360 376 395 416 438 461 480 502 521 766 1,136 1,547 376

Hume 302 327 353 375 403 435 468 506 537 572 609 1,039 1,617 2,229 639

Maribyrnong 230 237 240 244 250 257 264 270 274 280 288 397 560 723 214

Melbourne 154 163 174 184 196 211 228 245 262 281 300 592 1,021 1,459 849

Melton 150 170 189 208 228 250 273 296 319 344 370 753 1,264 1,809 1,103

Moonee Valley 461 483 502 520 540 561 585 608 629 652 672 960 1,396 1,790 289

Moreland 628 657 678 699 722 744 767 784 800 821 839 1,024 1,314 1,523 142

Nillumbik 119 125 132 138 146 154 164 174 184 194 206 380 632 879 640

Whittlesea 285 309 334 358 386 416 448 483 512 549 586 1,009 1,518 2,024 611

Wyndham 204 222 240 260 280 301 324 350 375 401 430 845 1,356 1,826 796

Yarra 191 201 209 214 223 234 243 252 262 274 284 431 655 877 358



83

Table 3.73: Incidence projections, LGAs by Health Regions, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Southern Metropolitan Region

Bayside 532 543 550 560 570 583 597 611 623 637 655 922 1,322 1,735 226

Cardinia 170 183 196 211 228 248 267 288 309 332 357 708 1,209 1,755 935

Casey 468 505 539 573 610 652 699 748 791 841 894 1,585 2,521 3,440 635

Frankston 451 471 491 510 535 565 593 622 647 678 710 1,121 1,693 2,354 422

Glen Eira 679 696 710 721 734 751 767 781 792 806 822 1,101 1,526 1,885 178

Greater Dandenong 494 523 551 575 604 640 674 708 737 770 806 1,250 1,894 2,613 429

Kingston 512 527 542 555 570 583 601 620 634 655 674 998 1,381 1,709 234

Mornington Peninsula 768 808 845 881 922 964 1,011 1,056 1,095 1,143 1,191 1,848 2,793 3,731 386

Port Phillip 261 268 274 281 289 299 309 319 328 341 357 572 878 1,190 357

Stonnington 420 439 455 468 485 508 532 553 569 591 615 929 1,405 1,933 360

Total 4,754 4,963 5,151 5,335 5,546 5,793 6,050 6,304 6,526 6,797 7,081 11,033 16,621 22,344 370

Barwon-South Western Region

Colac-Otway 100 104 108 111 114 122 127 131 136 140 146 214 323 437 335

Corangamite 82 88 92 96 100 105 111 116 119 124 128 186 274 380 363

Glenelg 90 94 98 102 105 110 116 120 125 130 135 205 299 402 348

Greater Geelong 984 1,035 1,079 1,128 1,182 1,244 1,308 1,365 1,420 1,481 1,542 2,385 3,640 5,080 416

Moyne 60 62 63 65 67 68 70 72 73 76 78 119 172 215 258

Queenscliffe 33 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 62 92 119 257

Southern Grampians 94 97 100 103 107 110 114 117 120 124 127 184 260 322 243

Surf Coast 90 94 100 104 108 114 119 126 133 139 147 241 374 501 458

Warrnambool 121 126 130 134 138 142 147 154 159 166 174 265 389 508 320

Total 1,655 1,735 1,806 1,880 1,960 2,055 2,152 2,242 2,329 2,423 2,521 3,862 5,822 7,965 381

Gippsland Region

Bass Coast 167 176 186 194 205 216 225 238 246 256 267 413 638 892 433

Baw Baw 166 179 189 199 211 225 238 250 261 277 294 483 764 1,097 559

East Gippsland 226 239 254 265 278 293 310 327 342 361 380 614 955 1,353 498

Latrobe 264 277 290 306 319 333 347 363 376 392 409 634 938 1,252 375

South Gippsland 123 129 135 139 145 152 157 164 170 177 185 285 430 569 365

Unincorporated Vic 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12

Wellington 171 183 190 197 207 218 228 237 246 258 269 423 638 849 396



84


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Grampian Region

Ararat 61 63 66 69 73 78 80 84 86 90 93 143 222 329 439

Ballarat 392 413 432 450 473 498 521 546 566 592 619 979 1,506 2,121 441

Golden Plains 31 32 35 37 39 40 43 45 49 51 54 117 192 268 769

Hepburn 68 70 74 76 80 83 87 91 94 98 102 155 233 320 368

Hindmarsh 52 53 54 56 58 61 64 65 68 70 72 91 125 160 210

Horsham 95 102 108 112 118 124 132 137 141 148 153 222 323 422 344

Moorabool 83 87 93 99 105 111 117 126 132 139 147 258 413 592 616

Northern Grampians 65 68 70 72 75 77 80 83 86 88 91 124 183 248 282

Pyrenees 34 35 37 39 40 43 45 48 49 51 53 75 104 130 277

West Wimmera 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 32 43 59 74 222

Yarriambiack 49 52 53 55 57 58 61 61 64 65 66 83 113 145 196

Total 953 1,001 1,047 1,090 1,143 1,201 1,258 1,315 1,363 1,425 1,483 2,290 3,473 4,809 404

Hume Region

Alpine 63 66 68 70 74 77 79 83 85 88 90 130 185 231 269

Benalla 81 85 89 92 96 100 103 107 111 114 118 161 221 278 241

Greater Shepparton 240 255 271 282 298 313 332 349 364 381 400 610 916 1,260 424

Indigo 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 68 71 74 118 165 203 300

Mansfield 32 35 36 37 39 41 43 46 48 51 54 95 155 223 589

Mitchell 81 88 94 99 105 112 119 127 134 141 149 269 437 600 638

Moira 151 159 166 175 183 192 203 213 224 234 244 368 555 752 397

Murrindindi 58 61 64 68 70 75 80 84 88 92 96 157 246 338 486

Strathbogie 53 55 57 59 61 62 64 66 68 70 72 107 155 195 265

Towong 37 38 39 40 42 44 47 49 50 51 53 72 97 125 236

Wangaratta 113 119 121 124 129 135 140 144 148 154 160 234 320 399 251

Wodonga 73 76 80 83 86 90 93 97 101 106 110 186 254 312 325



85


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change


Buloke 48 49 51 52 54 57 58 61 62 64 67 96 140 193 306

Campaspe 183 191 201 207 216 228 238 250 261 274 285 443 683 948 418

Central Goldfields 78 82 85 89 91 96 100 104 107 111 114 160 230 310 297

Gannawarra 66 69 72 74 79 82 86 88 91 95 98 146 220 321 389

Greater Bendigo 426 447 469 489 517 546 572 600 629 658 696 1,128 1,763 2,547 498

Loddon 36 37 38 40 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 63 84 102 179

Macedon Ranges 122 130 139 147 154 164 173 184 193 204 214 364 573 794 549

Mildura 216 230 243 256 269 282 297 311 325 340 354 536 826 1,141 429

Mount Alexander 93 95 99 102 105 107 112 115 119 123 127 193 288 381 311

Swan Hill 72 75 77 79 81 84 86 90 92 96 99 146 202 253 252

Total 1,339 1,407 1,475 1,535 1,605 1,687 1,764 1,847 1,923 2,010 2,098 3,275 5,009 6,990 422

Total (VIC) 19,356 20,339 21,235 22,089 23,098 24,227 25,388 26,536 27,556 28,779 30,021 46,395 69,795 94,114 386 Source: Access Economics calculations.


86

Table 3.76: Incidence projections, Department of Health regions, total

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change

Males 1,453 1,545 1,627 1,706 1,794 1,889 1,994 2,094 2,180 2,284 2,388 3,686 5,516 7,434 412

Females 2,368 2,464 2,540 2,616 2,716 2,822 2,931 3,040 3,135 3,255 3,367 4,901 7,192 9,261 291

Persons 3,821 4,009 4,167 4,322 4,510 4,712 4,925 5,134 5,315 5,539 5,755 8,587 12,708 16,695 337

Males 1,868 1,993 2,107 2,215 2,342 2,477 2,632 2,776 2,913 3,068 3,229 5,229 8,013 11,057 492

Females 2,813 2,960 3,097 3,226 3,382 3,564 3,732 3,906 4,058 4,243 4,430 6,759 10,076 13,327 374

Persons 4,681 4,953 5,204 5,441 5,724 6,040 6,364 6,683 6,971 7,311 7,659 11,988 18,089 24,384 421

Males 1,858 1,958 2,047 2,137 2,236 2,343 2,470 2,590 2,695 2,825 2,961 4,800 7,365 10,125 445

Females 2,896 3,005 3,105 3,197 3,310 3,450 3,580 3,715 3,831 3,972 4,119 6,234 9,256 12,219 322

Persons 4,754 4,963 5,151 5,335 5,546 5,793 6,050 6,304 6,526 6,797 7,081 11,033 16,621 22,344 370

Males 5,179 5,497 5,781 6,057 6,372 6,709 7,096 7,460 7,788 8,177 8,577 13,714 20,895 28,616 453

Females 8,077 8,428 8,742 9,040 9,409 9,836 10,244 10,661 11,024 11,469 11,917 17,894 26,524 34,807 331

Persons 13,256 13,925 14,523 15,097 15,780 16,545 17,340 18,121 18,812 19,646 20,494 31,608 47,419 63,423 378

Males 630 664 698 730 764 802 848 890 930 971 1,012 1,610 2,452 3,428 444

Females 1,025 1,071 1,108 1,149 1,195 1,252 1,303 1,353 1,398 1,452 1,510 2,252 3,370 4,538 343

Persons 1,655 1,735 1,806 1,880 1,960 2,055 2,152 2,242 2,329 2,423 2,521 3,862 5,822 7,965 381

Males 453 483 511 537 564 596 628 662 689 727 763 1,239 1,938 2,738 504

Females 665 700 733 763 801 842 879 918 953 995 1,041 1,615 2,427 3,275 393

Persons 1,118 1,183 1,244 1,300 1,366 1,438 1,507 1,580 1,642 1,722 1,804 2,853 4,365 6,013 438

Males 362 384 406 425 447 471 498 526 549 579 606 981 1,525 2,163 498

Females 592 617 641 665 696 730 760 789 814 846 876 1,310 1,948 2,645 347

Persons 953 1,001 1,047 1,090 1,143 1,201 1,258 1,315 1,363 1,425 1,483 2,290 3,473 4,809 404

Males 413 438 461 483 507 534 565 593 618 649 681 1,081 1,608 2,161 424

Females 622 652 680 704 737 768 802 838 869 904 940 1,426 2,098 2,752 342

Persons 1,035 1,089 1,141 1,187 1,244 1,301 1,367 1,431 1,487 1,553 1,621 2,507 3,707 4,913 375

Males 531 563 598 624 655 693 729 773 807 848 889 1,435 2,228 3,176 498

Females 808 843 877 911 950 993 1,035 1,074 1,116 1,162 1,209 1,839 2,780 3,814 372

Persons 1,339 1,407 1,475 1,535 1,605 1,687 1,764 1,847 1,923 2,010 2,098 3,275 5,009 6,990 422

Males 2,388 2,532 2,673 2,799 2,938 3,096 3,268 3,443 3,594 3,773 3,952 6,346 9,751 13,666 472

Females 3,712 3,883 4,040 4,192 4,379 4,586 4,780 4,972 5,150 5,359 5,575 8,441 12,625 17,024 359

Persons 6,100 6,415 6,713 6,991 7,317 7,682 8,048 8,415 8,744 9,132 9,527 14,787 22,376 30,690 403

Males 7,567 8,028 8,454 8,857 9,310 9,805 10,364 10,903 11,382 11,950 12,529 20,060 30,646 42,282 459

Females 11,789 12,311 12,781 13,232 13,788 14,421 15,024 15,633 16,174 16,828 17,492 26,335 39,148 51,832 340

Persons 19,356 20,339 21,235 22,089 23,098 24,227 25,388 26,536 27,556 28,779 30,021 46,395 69,795 94,114 386

Non-metropolitan

Subtotal

Hume

Loddon Mallee

Total (VIC)

East Metro

North and West

Metro

Southern Metro

Barwon-South

Western

Gippsland

Grampian

Metropolitan sub-

total



87

4 Mapping of dementia prevalence


88


89


90


91


92


93


94

Appendix A

Table A.1: Department of Health Regions

Metropolitan Health Regions Non-Metropolitan Health Regions

Eastern Metro Region Barwon-South Western Region

North and West Metro Region Gippsland Region

Southern Metro Region Grampian Region

Hume Region


Source: State Government of Victoria, Department of Human Services.

Table A.2: Statistical Local Areas within Eastern Metropolitan Region

Boroondara - Camberwell N. Monash - Waverley East

Boroondara - Camberwell S. Monash - Waverley West

Boroondara - Hawthorn Whitehorse - Box Hill

Boroondara - Kew Whitehorse - Nunawading E.

Knox - North-East Whitehorse - Nunawading W.

Knox - North-West Yarra Ranges - Central

Knox - South Yarra Ranges - Dandenongs

Manningham - East Yarra Ranges - Lilydale

Manningham - West Yarra Ranges - North

Maroondah - Croydon Yarra Ranges - Seville

Maroondah - Ringwood Yarra Ranges - Pt B

Monash - South-West

Source: Victorian Department of Health.

Table A.3: Statistical Local Areas within North and West Metropolitan Region

Banyule - Heidelberg Moonee Valley - Essendon

Banyule - North Moonee Valley - West

Brimbank - Keilor Moreland - Brunswick

Brimbank - Sunshine Moreland - Coburg

Darebin - Northcote Moreland - North

Darebin - Preston Nillumbik - South

Hobsons Bay - Altona Nillumbik - South-West

Hobsons Bay - Williamstown Nillumbik Bal

Hume - Broadmeadows Whittlesea - North

Hume - Craigieburn Whittlesea - South-East

Hume - Sunbury Whittlesea - South-West

Maribyrnong Wyndham - North

Melbourne - Inner Wyndham - South

Melbourne - S'bank-D'lands Wyndham - West

Melbourne - Remainder Yarra - North

Melton - East Yarra - Richmond

Melton Bal



95

Table A.4: Statistical Local Areas within Southern Metropolitan Region

Bayside - Brighton Glen Eira - South

Bayside - South Gr. Dandenong - Dandenong

Cardinia - North Gr. Dandenong Bal

Cardinia - Pakenham Kingston - North

Cardinia - South Kingston - South

Casey - Berwick Mornington P'sula - East

Casey - Cranbourne Mornington P'sula - South

Casey - Hallam Mornington P'sula - West

Casey - South Port Phillip - St Kilda

Frankston - East Port Phillip - West

Frankston - West Stonnington - Prahran

Glen Eira - Caulfield Stonnington - Malvern


Table A.5: Statistical Local Areas within Barwon-South Western Region

Bellarine - Inner Greater Geelong - Pt C

Colac-Otway - Colac Moyne - North-East

Colac-Otway - North Moyne - North-West

Colac-Otway - South Moyne - South

Corangamite - North Newtown

Corangamite - South Queenscliffe

Corio - Inner S. Grampians - Hamilton

Geelong S. Grampians - Wannon

Geelong West S. Grampians Bal

Glenelg - Heywood South Barwon - Inner

Glenelg - North Surf Coast - East

Glenelg - Portland Surf Coast - West

Greater Geelong - Pt B Warrnambool



96

Table A.6: Statistical Local Areas within Gippsland Region

Bass Coast - Phillip Is. Falls Creek Alpine Resort

Bass Coast Bal Lake Mountain Alpine Resort

Baw Baw - Pt A Mount Baw Baw Alpine Resort

Baw Baw - Pt B East Mount Buller Alpine Resort

Baw Baw - Pt B West Mount Hotham Alpine Resort

E. Gippsland - Bairnsdale Mount Stirling Alpine Resort

E. Gippsland - Orbost Lady Julia Percy Island

E. Gippsland - South-West French Island

E. Gippsland Bal Bass Strait Islands

Latrobe - Moe Off-Shore Areas & Migratory

Latrobe - Morwell Wellington - Alberton

Latrobe - Traralgon Wellington - Avon

Latrobe Bal Wellington - Maffra

South Gippsland - Central Wellington - Rosedale

South Gippsland - East Wellington - Sale

South Gippsland - West


Table A.7: Statistical Local Areas within Grampian Region

Ararat Horsham Bal

Ballarat - Central Moorabool - Bacchus Marsh

Ballarat - Inner North Moorabool - Ballan

Ballarat - North Moorabool - West

Ballarat - South N. Grampians - St Arnaud

Golden Plains - North-West N. Grampians - Stawell

Golden Plains - South-East Pyrenees - South

Hepburn - East Pyrenees - North

Hepburn - West West Wimmera

Hindmarsh Yarriambiack - North

Horsham - Central Yarriambiack - South


Table A.8: Statistical Local Areas within Hume Region

Alpine - East Moira - East

Alpine - West Moira - West

Benalla - Benalla Murrindindi - East

Benalla Bal Murrindindi - West

Gr. Shepparton - Pt A Strathbogie

Gr. Shepparton - Pt B East Towong - Pt A

Gr. Shepparton - Pt B West Towong - Pt B

Indigo - Pt A Wangaratta - Central

Indigo - Pt B Wangaratta - North

Mansfield Wangaratta - South

Mitchell - North Wodonga

Mitchell - South



97

Table A.9: Statistical Local Areas within Loddon Mallee Region

Buloke - North Gr. Bendigo - S'saye

Buloke - South Gr. Bendigo - Pt B

Campaspe - Echuca Loddon - North

Campaspe - Kyabram Loddon - South

Campaspe - Rochester Macedon Ranges - Kyneton

Campaspe - South Macedon Ranges - Romsey

C. Goldfields - M'borough Macedon Ranges Bal

C. Goldfields Bal Mildura - Pt A

Gannawarra Mildura - Pt B

Gr. Bendigo - Central Mount Alexander - C'maine

Gr. Bendigo - Eaglehawk Mount Alexander Bal

Gr. Bendigo - Inner East Swan Hill - Central

Gr. Bendigo - Inner North Swan Hill - Robinvale

Gr. Bendigo - Inner West Swan Hill Bal



98

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