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Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
Outlook of Brazilian AgricultureOutlook of Brazilian Agriculture
XVI Joint Meeting of the BRAZIL – JAPAN Economic Cooperation CommitteeXVI Joint Meeting of the BRAZIL – JAPAN Economic Cooperation Committee
September 23September 23rdrd, 2013 Belo Horizonte – Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2013 Belo Horizonte – Minas Gerais, Brazil
Data sources: USDA, FAO, CIA, UN, CONAB, MAFF
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
Agrex do Brasil Agrex do Brasil (former “Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil”)(former “Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil”) 2
Mitsubishi Corporation has acquired a Brazilian grain company.
“Agrex do Brasil S/A” (former “Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil”)
WHY ???WHY ???
MA
PI
TO
GO
BAMT
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
World Demand for Grain Will Further IncreaseWorld Demand for Grain Will Further Increase 3
20132013( 95 million tons )
20232023( 144 million tons )
Asia72mil (76%) Asia
117mil (81%)
EU12mil (13%)
EU 11mil (8%)
Others
Others
In the next decade, the world will need to import soybeans49 million tons MORE, or 52% INCREASE.
Most of the incremental comes from Asia.
Example: Soybeans World Import Forecast
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
World Demand for Grain Will Further IncreaseWorld Demand for Grain Will Further Increase 4
World Population:
Now: 7.1 billions
2023: 7.9 billions
(2050: 10.0 billions)
Improvement of Living Standard (Change of Dietary):
1kg of Egg = 3kg of grain
1kg of Poultry = 4kg of grain
1kg of Pork = 7kg of grain
1kg of Beef = 11kg of grain
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ?Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ? 5
Used
Available
Land Availability (million HA) Available Land in Brazil
Expansion into Northeast and North
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
6Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ?Who Can Supply This Demand Incremental ?
Historical Soybeans Yield (tons / ha)
Among Brazil, Argentine and USA (the 3 major export countries), Brazil shows the least volatility.
This proves that Brazil has the most stable / favorable conditions: Precipitation, Temperature, Solar Radiation, Soil, Crop Management, etc.
Brazil Argentine USA
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
7
Sufficient Land Availability Favorable Weather Condition Plans for Logistics Developments
Brazil Will Supply This Demand IncrementalBrazil Will Supply This Demand Incremental
Example: Soybeans World Export Forecast
20132013( 95 million tons )
20232023( 144 million tons )
Brazil41mil (43%)
Brazil64mil (44%)
USA36mil (38%) USA
44mil (30%)
Argentine6mil (7%)
Argentine18mil (12%)
OthersOthers
These Make Brazil the furtherimportant grain supplier for the world
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
Other Agricultural Products Also Rely on BrazilOther Agricultural Products Also Rely on Brazil 8
Coffee Export
Brazil 32%
(World No.1)
Sugar Export
Brazil 46%
(World No.1)
Poultry Export
Brazil 36%
(World No.1)
Orange Juice Export
Brazil 81%
(World No.1)
Pork Export Beef Export
Brazil 9%
(World No.4)
Brazil 17%
(World No.2)
Proprietary & ConfidentialProprietary & Confidential
【【 RefRef 】 】 Value ChainValue Chain 9
“From Farm to Consumer”: Participate in every segment of the whole chain
Overview the various markets as one ⇒ Define the markets needs / situation
Grain Origination Logistics Export Import
ProcessingLivestock FarmsMeet PackingConsumer Retail